Kris Allen Predicted Less than 100K First Week Sales

Awful. He’s the only person’s album from this season that I would ever listen to, but these numbers are not good at all.

He has some additional promo this week so those numbers could improve over the weekend.

alwaysintrouble, it’s a projection so I think they are already accounting for any extra promo, online sales, pre-orders etc. They are usually pretty accurate.

Wow that’s a bummer. It’s a good cd too. Hopefully he does a little better than predictions or his cd turns out to be one that sells a little at a time for a LONG time.

UGH. Nasty numbers, but maybe the are wrong and he will hit the 100k mark.

Typo in the first sentence, MJ (or Kirsten). You have Kris’ sales as 60-65 instead of 75-80. Let’s not gyp him out of 10,000! He needs them!

alwaysintrouble: What does Kris have other than the VH1 interview? This is an honest question because I hope he trends higher than the predictions. The prediction definitely wouldn’t include any effect from Regis & Kelly but idk how big that effect would be anyway.

Like I was saying in the headlines thread HDD has usually overestimated the AIers other than Kelly, Daughtry, and Carrie because AIers usually have a higher percentage of 1st day buyers. I’m hoping Kris doesn’t follow that pattern though and I feel like his fanbase might be the kind that’s willing to wait for the weekend before buying his album.

cilady: I don’t think they’re necessarily taking into account other promo because they don’t unless it’s something huge like Oprah or a big primetime awards show. They look at 1st day sales and then there’s some kind of formula they use based on how albums usually drop off after the 1st day and then pick up again over the weekend. There’ll be an updated prediction on Friday that includes Wednesday and at least some Thursday sales.

We all know that the record industry has changed lots over the past few years, which realistically speaking should be taken into account when comparing numbers from past years. But we all also know that isn’t likely to happen.

I’m loving the CD. I bought the iTunes Pre-order and the Walmart version. Never before have I intentionally purchased 2 copies of the same CD (there was an unintentional double purchase of Mat Kearney in September… oh well).

I think Kris said it best in one of his interviews yesterday (w/ Jim C. maybe?) “It is what it is. It’s gonna do what it does.” At this point, all they can do is continue the promo and see what happens. I choose to adopt Kris’s Zen approach.

OneRepublic is expected to sell about 40-45k. Albums just arent’ selling like they used to.

I was hoping for about 100k for Kris for the first week, so this is a little disappointing. I still think his album will have good word of mouth from buyers, and ultimately will have legs, though.

Wish the best for you Kris. Any friend of the bb is a friend to us.

Still think it’s unfair to to call these bad numbers and comparisons to past Idol winners are a bit too skewed to really paint a picture.

I mean, for reference, some of Kris’ competition:

NORAH JONES
Projection: 155,000
Last album: 405,000

LEONA LEWIS
Projection: 63,000
Last album: 205,000

ONEREPUBLIC
Projection: 43,000
Last album: 75,000

So if anything is awful, it’s the music industry as a whole’s sales right now.

cilady: I don’t think they’re necessarily taking into account other promo because they don’t unless it’s something huge like Oprah or a big primetime awards show. They look at 1st day sales and then there’s some kind of formula they use based on how albums usually drop off after the 1st day and then pick up again over the weekend. There’ll be an updated prediction on Friday that includes Wednesday and at least some Thursday sales.

That’s true. But I’m not sure if the numbers change all that much. I think the weekend predictions are more like honing in on who’s going to be #1.

his recording artist career is over.

Well, I hope that it does better as the days go on…it’s a good album. I am worried that the rest of the days of up 11/23 will be filled with Adam mania. Also, sorry, why didn’t kris get to perform on the AMAs? Cook at least did the pre show last year and he also presented I believe. That would have been good exposure for him.

Also, I would like to ask MJ, how come there are two banners for Adam’s album on the site and I haven’t seen any for Kris’ album..is that something she controls or do the management put them up?

Are the itunes passes included in the prediction?

I think the banners are generated by content on the site, but I could be wrong. There were plenty of Kris banners on the site last week.

first these numbers are still very very impressive so let’s have some perspective here!
also, it’s stupid to compare this year with the one three years ago, for example, since it’s a very difficult financial year and many many tight their belts.

Wow that’s really depressing. Makes me worried for how many Adam will sell.

Does anybody know the 1st week numbers for Cook and Archie last year, as a point of comparsion?

And are the pre-sales for Kris’s album counted in this figure?

It’s a tough industry these days when you can rip just about anything you want for free. Until the music industry figures out a way to control this, look for sales numbers to continue to fall.

I said in the other thread: I hope he doesnt get marked by those numbers in year in which sales are really screwed in US. Not fair to compare with former years. I have to say I was surprised with how deep the crisis got in the us. I knew it was there, but it was definitely much worse than in other countries.

Ouch.

Cook sold 283K

Archie sold 183K

Cook sold 283K

Archie sold 183K

…

Oh. Poor Kris. I’m mainly an Adam fan but I like Kris too, so this makes me sad.

Note Simon Cowell’s X Factor protege, Leona Lewis isn’t exactly busting up the charts either’ ¦

He will come back with SoBo’s skyrocketing sales.

Heh, I think we’re missing the really big news here. With two weeks sales rolled into one (only digital last week) 50 cent is still only going to sell 140 – 150K?!

Note Simon Cowell’s X Factor protege, Leona Lewis isn’t exactly busting up the charts either’ ¦

He will come back with SoBo’s skyrocketing sales.

Yuck.

EVERYONE’S sales are in the tank. It’s proportional.

Do you think HDD is accounting for the ITunes Pass? That prediction just seems awfully low. Then again, when you look at the numbers all around, even the top selling albums each week aren’t doing better than around 250-300k.

“Cook sold 283K
Archie sold 183K”

When US economy hasn’t been in depression yet.

Cook sold 283K

Archie sold 183K

‘ ¦

Oh. Poor Kris. I’m mainly an Adam fan but I like Kris too, so this makes me sad.

I don’t expect Adam’s numbers to be as high as the Davids either. Not that Adam and Kris aren’t as talented as the Davids, but it’s just the state of the AI fandom and, I suspect, the economy.

Well we’ll see how he does through Christmas. At this point, going gold eventually is probably the long term goal. That and strong single sales should carry him through to get album number 2? I don’t know, I’m guessing here.

We can only compare sales relatively…. Heck – look how much sales Ruben made and I think Kris >> Ruben. But it’s not exactly a booming time for economy right now and all sales are low. Kris is actually doing fairly nice compared to other established artists.

Do you think HDD is accounting for the ITunes Pass?

That is one mystery I hope we will have solved by next week! Then next season, if they have the freaking ITUNES pass, we will know how to account for it.

Also, I would like to ask MJ, how come there are two banners for Adam’s album on the site and I haven’t seen any for Kris’ album..is that something she controls or do the management put them up?

Google ads. I don’t control them.

The only thing shocking here is how many albums John Mayer is selling. Nobody is buying cds these days. TBQH if you are not a 200% hardcore fan it’s pretty much a waste of money in this economy.

Adam won’t sell a billion records either. Tough times.

50 cent had to deal with his album leaking weeks in advance. I think that’s why they moved up the digital release an extra week so they could have something out before sales were lost to illegal downloading.

The headlines the following week will be interesting. I expect to do a lot of

But on the bright side, I think he won’t have much of a decrease next week thanks to black friday…which will be nice.

OneRepublic is expected to sell about 40-45k.

It’s not all that far from what they sold the last time.

Justin Bieber is also a new artist, who doesn’t come from a TV show, and in a gener that doesn’t sell that many albums and is opening good.

I guess we can spin it in many ways, but yeah, these numbers don’t look that good for Kris. They’re expected based on how LLWD has been selling, but if it wasn’t for LLWD’s first week numbers this would be more of a shock.
It’s true that Jordin also started low, but she had big hits, and she had a smash crossover. At this point I don’t think Kris will have that.

Well, he still has the tour. I don’t know how many people are that invested to go see him on tour. But maybe he’ll do better there.

Do you think HDD is accounting for the ITunes Pass?

Itunes pass are itunes download, HDD counts Itunes downloads, so yeah, I’d say those are in. Just a guess.

Kath77
It’s a tough industry these days when you can rip just about anything you want for free. Until the music industry figures out a way to control this, look for sales numbers to continue to fall.

Especially since the label is practically giving the album away (streaming it) before it goes on sale. For the life of me I can’t understand why they are doing that.
As I understand it the same has been done for Adam’s album, so I wouldn’t be surprised if those sales also come below expectations.
I just hope they don’t do it for Allison’s (my fave).
Does anyone if Cook and Archie albums were streamed before release?

i think Kris Allen’s numbers are better compared to Jordin Spark’s Battlefield which sold 47K copies. personally, that’s a better comparison since they released the albums on the same year.

however, by the number, he’ll be regarded as the lowest selling AI winner in terms of it’s first week sales. this makes me sad.

i still think his album is AMAZING!

I know this has probably been answered 1,000 times, but I’m having a memory lapse! Do sales figures include both hard copy CD’s and iTunes/other MP3 outlet downloads? Or just hard copies?

It’s not all that far from what they sold the last time.

OneRepublic sold like 75,000 copies last time, I’m pretty sure, so this is actually a pretty significant difference. Just saying…everyone’s sales are down.

Albums aren’t selling the way that they used to … so we need to know the percentage that across-the-board sales have fallen. Then it might make sense to look at these numbers. Without that kind of perspective, I can’t see why anybody would bother with them. They don’t tell the story.

Well, if you wan to take into account the economy, you would have to look at the dip in sales from this week last year to this year. If Kris’ sales dropped at roughly the same rate, then I’m thinking you can reasonably say its the economy. Otherwise, something more is going on.

Either way, we’ve known for a while that these 2 did not have the selling power of past contestants. But we’ve also known that the real test comes with long term success, which tends to happen independent of the size of the AI fanbase. So I won’t write any S8ers off yet. Let’s see how things shake out come January.

Well, having no interest in Kris or Adam, my life is not ruined. I do wonder what the posters are gonna say if Adam doesn’t clear 200K…

I was also surprised the CMA’s didn’t level out Carrie’s numbers. She still went down 60%. I thought the CMA’s woulda flat lined her at least a little bit.

Except they also streamed John Mayer’s album if I’m not mistaken. It didn’t hurt his sales any.

I expected this from Kris Allen. I am so angry with RCA/19 did with David Cook. Cook should have sold over 2 million or more. Cook had one of the best coronation songs with Time of Your Life and Light on went platinmum. They saddled him with the weakest song on the album Come Back to Me and when it did not hit. They stopped promotion and future singles. I am pissed because Declaration/Lie were my faves. Allen did not have the buzz as David Cook had. Cookie had a huge base that 19 does not seem to back up. Allen is going to really have to push his way slowly. Jordin was able to go platinum in season 6 but it took a year and a massive hit called No Air. If David Cook releases a new album, can you see it doing well? Why do you think Cook sold way more then Allen?

David Cook’s album was streamed for release. Pretty much everyone releasing albums the same week as Kris had their album avaliable for streaming in some format. Sure people will rip streams and have them available for downloading, but it must help sales if everyone is doing it.

Jordin was helped a lot by her duet with Chris Brown, before he was a domestic abuser. Raised her visibility and gave her some “cool” factor.

well this makes jordin sparks debute look like mjs thrillers,maybe adam will be slow burner like her and eventually go platiinum,also shocking is leonal lewis ,i thought she was gonna shit 200k ,now it gonna be lucky to sell what jordin sparks battlefield has sold so far,wow,so my girl jordin ain doing that bad after all, seems leona is suffering from the sophomore curse

Does anybody know the 1st week numbers for Cook and Archie last year, as a point of comparsion?

HDD first-day estimates for Archie were 225K-240K and first-day estimates for Cook were 300K.

eta; so we’re comparing the same stuff.

i think Kris Allen’s numbers are better compared to Jordin Spark’s Battlefield which sold 47K copies. personally, that’s a better comparison since they released the albums on the same year.

however, by the number, he’ll be regarded as the lowest selling AI winner in terms of it’s first week sales. this makes me sad.

i still think his album is AMAZING!

The Economic state is definately showing it’s effect here. I think 50 Cent & Mayer were always gonna do well, very established artists.
But I just don’t get why is Kris Allen’s Single not a bigger hit. It’s a strong catchy single.
Also his album is ACTUALLY GOOD! It deserves better.

Does anyone if Cook and Archie albums were streamed before release?

Yes, this is pretty normal these days.
The economy depression started last year btw…

I’ll scream it from every available roof top until I am blue in the face….”the economy sucks” and people just aren’t buying!! Illegal downloads are everywhere..and anyway can buy one CD and make multiple copies for all their friends and acquaintances.

Wait until we get Christmas shopping figures….I know a lot of families that Christmas will be a few Santa gifts for the kids and that’s the end of that story.

No idol, ever again, will sell like Daughtry. No idol, ever again, will have cumulative numbers like Carrie and Kelly. Everything is changing and we have to change our thinking to embrace what is happening NOW, TODAY.

Personally, I think if Kris gets to a gold record in the next year he will be doing AMAZING and probably better than 95% of recording artists dropping an album right now.

Let’s be happy for Kris…he is doing what he wants to do and is getting to write, sing, and record. It may be an uphill climb for him, but if he keeps his positive attitude he will be fine.

As far as saying that Kris’ career might be over…..not by a long shot. But if LLWD doesn’t pull a miracle, and if his 2nd single doesn’t do any better, his career with Jive might be in trouble.

Kris REALLY needed a strong fanbase to give him huge, front-loaded sales to show that at least a particular group of people will buy whatever he releases and in large amounts.

I hate being all ominous about Kris. He’s the only person from this season that I enjoyed.

Wow that’s really depressing. Makes me worried for how many Adam will sell.

I’m freaking out a little, NGL. I still love Adam’s album though.

I thought Kris’ iTunes Pass being up since the finale would have really helped his first week numbers, so maybe those haven’t been taken into consideration yet.

however, by the number, he’ll be regarded as the lowest selling AI winner in terms of it’s first week sales. this makes me sad.

This!!!

The economy depression started last year btw’ ¦

True impact wasn’t felt til well after Cook and Archie debuted.

/blockquote>>
i think Kris Allen’s numbers are better compared to Jordin Spark’s Battlefield which sold 47K copies. personally, that’s a better comparison since they released the albums on the same year.

are you kidding ,the is jordin second album,she suffered the sophomore curse,and apparently leona lewis who was the biggest selling artist last year is going through the same ordeal ,i like kris but he will be luck to sell 47k copies like jordin next year with his second album

The last paragraph from the HDD prediction says:

“The market was up 3% vs. last week, down 21% vs. same week last year and still down 13% year to date.”

So this the combined effects of the economy, illegal downloads, etc. if I’m reading this correctly.

AdoK
11/18/2009 at 3:53 pm
‘Cook sold 283K
Archie sold 183K’ 

When US economy hasn’t been in depression yet.

i think, American Idol hasn’t been in depression yet.

But if LLWD doesn’t pull a miracle, and if his 2nd single doesn’t do any better, his career with Jive might be in trouble.

Kris REALLY needed a strong fanbase to give him huge, front-loaded sales to show that at least a particular group of people will buy whatever he releases and in large amounts.

I hate being all ominous about Kris. He’s the only person from this season that I enjoyed.

This seems extremely pessimistic. While the numbers make me really sad right now, Jive has shown to be etremely patient with their artists. And since we don’t know what his second single will be or when Jive will release it we don’t know what that will bring. I’m just glad it’s not the mess that we are seeing with Adam’s rollout at the moment.

I know this is an unpopular pov, but I really think Kris had a bunch of heavy duty dialers that pushed him over the top to win. And while I’m sure they all bought the album, there are just not that many of them. Plus, No Boundries, did not help him build a brand.

Kris has a TON of jingle ball type promos coming up this next month. Hopefully that will keep the single playing on radio and the album selling steadily through Christmas. Maybe by the time the holiday season is over, it won’t look quite so bleak.

The market was up 3% vs. last week, down 21% vs. same week last year and still down 13% year to date. Is it 2010 yet?

That is the quote from the bottom of the HDD article. So we are all clear on how much the market is down. The David’s were also operating in a depressed economy and things were not looking good last year either. So it is hard to compare apples to oranges but as a whole record sales are down 13%. not 70%.

“i think, American Idol hasn’t been in depression yet.”
KOKA srsly, even Mighty AI bowed down to the depression and called off AI Gives Back.

And Srsly “his recording artist career is over.”
LOL, excuse me but I respectfully disagree! But Hey ur entitled to ur opinion.

Man o man, Adam will be lucky if he gets to see 125k.

Kirsten, given that everyone agrees the sales are down compared to previous years, how would this look if they were adjusted for the downturn in sales ? (Would Kris then beat Jordin ?)

True impact wasn’t felt til well after Cook and Archie debuted.

This is what HDD says about this weeks numbers

The market was up 3% vs. last week, down 21% vs. same week last year and still down 13% year to date. Is it 2010 yet?

This is what HDD wrote last year, the week Cook’s album was released

The market was up 27% vs. last week, down 24% vs. the same week last year and still down 13% year to date.

I am not sure they have predicted the itunes pass correctly… but other posters say its accounted for. Too bad it’s not higher, and I can’t really see Adam selling much more than Kris… Twice as much maaaaybe, but three or four times as much? Don’t really see that happening. So they both should end up low.

This suggests that Adam’s numbers next week aren’t likely to be all that high, either. And Allison isn’t going to come anywhere near the 75,000 that a Jive rep was quoted as giving as her estiamted 1st week sales in some magazine article, because her fanbase is the weakest of this trio.

The economy is working against all artists right now. And if you aren’t established — which NEITHER Kris nor Adam are — it makes it just that much more difficult. I know Justin Bieber is a new artist, but he is also the new golden boy of the teeny bopper set. He’s got like 5 singles charting on iTunes right now.

I know this is an unpopular pov, but I really think Kris had a bunch of heavy duty dialers that pushed him over the top to win. And while I’m sure they all bought the album, there are just not that many of them. Plus, No Boundries, did not help him build a brand.

Everyone knows that there is a lot of powervoting going on with American Idol. That’s how the game is played. Also, we’ve seen evidence from Kris, Adam and Allison’s first weeks that # of votes cast on the show != units sold. It’s expected.

I thought he’d hit the 100k mark so I am a little disappointed but I am not going to start bringing out the tired conspiracy theories.

saga- I don’t think it’s going to be twice as much based on the general trend of sales this year. But yeah, 100k was my prediction so maybe I am not one to talk.

Except they also streamed John Mayer’s album if I’m not mistaken. It didn’t hurt his sales any.

They stream almost all mainstream albums these days the week leading up to release. It allows people to listen and actually can help with sales.

I don’t know if this says more about the economy or the state of American Idol. Probably a bit of both? I am truly surprised. Kris Allen won the show; I never expected Cook’s numbers, but I thought Kris would “easily” sell 100K. Has AI just become more of a game to the public rather than a means to find and purchase new music. Is it the fact that there is no big chart hit supporting the album. At this rate, Allison will be lucky to sell 30-50k, and I won’t even to begin to speculate about Adam. Susan Boyle will also be interesting—maybe she will pull Mayer’s numbers.

As a Cook fan, it will be really interesting to see what kind of numbers his Sophomore album pulls when he is not coming off the Idol machine.

Anyway, I hope these guys just keep plugging along. I would guess that Jive/RCA have had their own people working the numbers all along, so at least this probably isn’t really surprising from the inside.

are you kidding ,the is jordin second album,she suffered the sophomore curse,and apparently leona lewis who was the biggest selling artist last year is going through the same ordeal ,i like kris but he will be luck to sell 47k copies like jordin next year with his second album

i’m aware that it’s jordin’s second album. all i’m saying is that, since they released it on the same year the economy is actually in trouble, Kris did better compared to Jordin’s Battlefield. yes. it’s her sophomore album but it’s another way to look at it.

you can compare Kris’ numbers to the other debut albums of AI winner’s first week or compare it to other AI alums albums that are released this year – considering the economy. just my thoughts

So overall market down 13% two years in a row. And my son wants to go into the music industry. LOL.

wait a minute… do they predict that Allison will have similar sales to Kris?

Read on a board that there was a short article about Allison in which Rolling Stone wrote that Jive predicts 75,000 for her

Kirsten, given that everyone agrees the sales are down compared to previous years, how would this look if they were adjusted for the downturn in sales ? (Would Kris then beat Jordin ?)

I’m not Kirsten, but if the economy was taken into account Kris comes in at around 101K I believe, so he still wouldn’t top Jordin but it wouldn’t be as large a difference between them.

Wow that’s really depressing. Makes me worried for how many Adam will sell.

About the same, would be my guess.

But really they’re going to be artists over time. The labels know the economy is bad. They won’t write them off all that easily. And you can still go gold and even platinum from this start, if things break the right way for you.

With Elliott’s first album, for example, in 2007, his first week was about 90,000. But he went on to get a gold album at quite a steady pace, based on only *one* hot single that went platinum. And that happened on an indie label without any of the resources of a major label. So you can end up with quite respectable numbers with an album that starts out selling 100,000. Kris and Adam will also do just fine. These albums are both solid.

arghh, what a bummer

does it takes into account the CDs sold in stores yesterday?

i like kris but he will be luck to sell 47k copies like jordin next year with his second album

His sophmore album wouldn’t be until some time in 2011.

Also his album is ACTUALLY GOOD! It deserves better.

THIS

But also THIS: the economy and changes in the music industry… Tess has nailed it in her post.

Unfortunately for Leona Lewis, all of the same things apply for her sales and … Echo isn’t half the song that Bleeding Love was. It’s not that good (IMO) and it looks even worse when you compare it to her previous effort.

kOka

Kris’ recording career isn’t over. Not by a long shot. Jive understands the economy, and they have seen LLWD steadily BUILD in sales the last two weeks. You don’t wrtie off someone because his opening sales numbers are lower than you might wish for.

Are you going to say the same thing if Adam fails to sell a ton of albums next week? Because that would be equally premature.

So odd that fans would spend 40-80 dollars on a concert ticket but not $10 on an album. Makes no sense to me at all!

I know this has probably been answered 1,000 times, but I’m having a memory lapse! Do sales figures include both hard copy CD’s and iTunes/other MP3 outlet downloads? Or just hard copies?

Hard copies and digital downloads. Both.

The economy depression started last year btw’ ¦

True impact wasn’t felt til well after Cook and Archie debuted.

By whom? It was felt last year, too. Hard. But be that as it may, Justin Beiber is *still* estimated to move 110-120K units. Andrea Bocelli in his 3rd week is set to move 140k-150k. And no, I am not going to dismiss how tough it is out there, but albums are still being sold. What I find odd is that some are just refusing to consider that consumers are clearly choosing *not* to buy AI8 products? They are still buying albums because again, look at the top 5 artists listed in the OP. Just not as many are keen on buying Kris’s product. Again, he’ll just have to work hard, get radio play, and sell more albums over time. LLWD got a nice spike in downloads last week. So here’s hoping that will happen for Kris’s album over time as well.

Nico

Allison won’t sell 75,000. Her fanbase is weaker than Kris’ to begin with and she isn’t getting the major promotional stuff that he has. She’s doing her radio tour now, but most of them appear to be in smaller markets. Unless the tie-in she is getting with the “New Moon” movie gives her a real boost, her first week sales could be below 50,000. Just a guess on my part…

If the market is down 13 percent then Kris’ numbers represent a much steeper decline than what could be accounted for by the economy. This is not all about the economy.

Plus the S8 tour pulled about the same audience as S7.

I still think we have to wait and see how Christmas shakes out for him and how radio likes him next year before we call it on Kris though.

(pats self on back) Very close to my predictions. With the decline in album sales over the past two years Kris’ numbers are pretty close to Jordin’s. Hopefully, his album can have the longevity hers did..

Honestly Allison will be lucky to open with 30K. But I still think Adam will have a good opening week. Someone from S8 has to benefit from the successful tour.

Well, the numbers for Kris suck. It seems to be “in the water” this year. I’m skeerd for next week.

I know Justin Bieber is a new artist, but he is also the new golden boy of the teeny bopper set. He’s got like 5 singles charting on iTunes right now.

I called that wrong. I figured Justin would be #2. Maybe he is on all the kiddies Christmas lists and he’ll move up. I did get the #1 right. I knew John Mayer would explode out of the gate. He’s a proven hit maker who appeals to teens-adults.

Justin Beiber is *still* estimated to move 110-120K units. Andrea Bocelli in his 3rd week is set to move 140k-150k.

Beiber and Andrea Bocelli are in different markets that the AI kids. Beiber is the it thing in teeny bopper world right now. Andrea Bocelli is totally a different world that Pop/HotA/Top 40.

Oh, and Beiber was selling at a lower price.

What is going on? I’m a Kris fan and I don’t think these numbers are bad. It’s only the idol fandom that feel you must open with big numbers to make it in the business. I believe Kris will be okay.
Kris Allen fans, lets chill. I have my own judgement down here.

50Cents Last FW sales 692,000 Pred. 145,000
Norah Jones Last FW sales 405,000 Pred. 155,000
Leona Lewis Last FW SALES 205,000 Pred. 63,000
One Republic Last FW sales 75,000 Pred. 43,000
Kris Allen Last FW SALES 5 Pred. 75,000

This wonderful judgement is from the Benches and I agree. Who wins here?

In my opinion Kris wins. Nuf said.

wait a minute’ ¦ do they predict that Allison will have similar sales to Kris?

Read on a board that there was a short article about Allison in which Rolling Stone wrote that Jive predicts 75,000 for her

However, when that was first posted on this board a week or so ago, the general reaction (I think maybe the universal reaction) was What are they smoking and where can I get some?

Hard copies and digital downloads. Both.

lucy, do you mean only hard copies ordered though the internet?

girlygirl
11/18/2009 at 4:21 pm
kOka

Kris’ recording career isn’t over. Not by a long shot. Jive understands the economy, and they have seen LLWD steadily BUILD in sales the last two weeks. You don’t wrtie off someone because his opening sales numbers are lower than you might wish for.

Are you going to say the same thing if Adam fails to sell a ton of albums next week? Because that would be equally premature.

You haven’t been reading lately, have you?? K0ko has been predicting the demise of Adam for weeks now..lol.

I was a fan of Beiber back when he was just one a YouTube phenom.

Now? Not so much. lol He couldn’t get more cookie cutter if they tried. I still like his music but just disappointed in the direction that they took him. But hey, I can’t blame his label for trying to make a buck.

All I can say, if these figures are correct, is that its really fortunate for the three idols signed this year that they seems to have mainstream appeal to make it outside the bubble. They also seem to have better albums than previous years. So if the idol audience is failing them, they just have to work hard, get out there and promote their stuff.

Wow… much lower than I expected. I’m gonna go and buy his album on iTunes when I get home then.

lucy, do you mean only hard copies ordered though the internet?

Woops. tried to be clear, failed again!

No, I mean both hard copies and downloads are counted, no matter where they’re bought, from the Internet, from brick and mortar, through the artist’s own site, etc. etc. They count it all (except for certain outlets like Christian book stores, I think maybe, but those aren’t relevant here … so … from everywhere)

OUCH! for some reason this makes me extremely nervous for Adam even tho they’re two totally different artists. i was afraid of this actually.

anovich thanks for answering my question. It seems then the goal now is longevity – to keep sales going slowly over a long period of time…

I still think they miscalculated the itune pass…

I am still confused about how the numbers are calculated in the arcticle it states;

according to one-day reports from those hearty few still selling shiny, round discs in their stores instead of flat screen TVs.

I take that to mean physical cds.

About the same, would be my guess.

Well time will tell on that but I’m gonna say probably not the same. Adam has consistently been in the top 10 on Amazon since his CD went for pre-order whereas Kris hovered in the mid to low 100s for weeks and then slowly crept up into the top 100 in the last week or so. Also on itunes Adam has not fallen below #60, reaching as high actually as #10 on the overall chart. And then there is the fact that it’s Black Friday…. I don’t see any situation where Adam sells less than 100K CD first week.

it will be interesting to see Adam’s numbers but since this is kris’ week I think we should stick to discussing kris’ numbers and worry about Adam next week when his projections come in.

“If the market is down 13 percent then Kris’ numbers represent a much steeper decline than what could be accounted for by the economy. This is not all about the economy.”

Actually your using the wrong % here. Sales are down 21% this year from last and they were down 24% last year from 2007. So if we adjust Kris’s sales for these declines it works out to be about 116K. Not that it matters.

Justin bieber is AWESOME…

didn’t buy his album though.lots of singles

I bought Kris Allen…

Kris needs to do something, ANYTHING, to get his name out there or else there will be no 2nd album. Most of the people that i know have no clue who he is but they’ve at least heard of Adam. Kris’ “low key” approach is doing nothing for him. damn, i was expecting higher numbers, wow. at least in the 100,000 range. im extremely surprised tbh. i thought this past season was the best and the albums are the strongest in a long time. i dont even wanna think of how much Allison will sell.

and then slowly crept up into the top 100 in the last week or so.

According to Amazon Kris has been in the top 100 for the past 40 days – they actually tell you that right there on the screen.

So odd that fans would spend 40-80 dollars on a concert ticket but not $10 on an album. Makes no sense to me at all!

This one is easy. People pay for shows when they want to go out and have fun. Maybe have a good time with a girlfriend, friends, etc. But if you just want the songs you can download them illegally. I’ve been to many shows and I usually don’t buy cds for that reason.

They project total sales (including pre-orders, passes, amazon) based on first day physical sales. It’s not the first time they’ve predicted sales for a CD that went on pre-order.

I still think they miscalculated the itune pass’ ¦

Well, hold the thought, because that would be a very nice surprise for next week!

Wow. These numbers very poor, indeed.

It seems then the goal now is longevity ‘“ to keep sales going slowly over a long period of time’ ¦

This is what happened with Kings of Leon’s last CD. It just kept moving along and the next thing anyone knew, they were platinum with a major radio hit in ‘Use Somebody.’

As several others have pointed out, the economy combined with an industry still trying to sort out how to get sales back on track plays against all artists–and especially against new singers.

Kris’ initial numbers won’t blow anyone away, but they aren’t dire just yet. The key is to keep things moving with appearances and an early 2010 tour.

The same holds true for Adam and Allison. You can’t panic at the supposed first sign of trouble. They’ll all just have to work really hard to get good numbers. They’re capable of doing that.

Actually your using the wrong % here. Sales are down 21% this year from last and they were down 24% last year from 2007. So if we adjust Kris’s sales for these declines it works out to be about 116K. Not that it matters.

I’m clarifying from my earlier post – I only used the 1 year market decline to show where Kris would have been last year. Recalculating to the same year as Jordin’s release would put him in better shape then Jordin if I did the math correctly and he would have been a bit over 133K that year.

According to Amazon Kris has been in the top 100 for the past 40 days ‘“ they actually tell you that right there on the screen.

that is a cummalative total as in how many days spent in the top 100…they don’t have ot be consecutive….. he was outside the top 100 just two weeks ago…

Kris needs to do something, ANYTHING, to get his name out there

come out of the closet?

sorry just trying to help.heh.;)

ummmm I guess the numbers are bad-ish but I think that for not much(at least in my area) top 40 radio play he’s doing well

Kris’ initial numbers won’t blow anyone away, but they aren’t dire just yet. The key is to keep things moving with appearances and an early 2010 tour.

The same holds true for Adam and Allison. You can’t panic at the supposed first sign of trouble. They’ll all just have to work really hard to get good numbers. They’re capable of doing that.

Exactly. And I think we have to remember that, aside from the hardcore Idol faithful, not a lot of people know yet how solid these albums are. That can be demonstrated over time through tours and appearances and hopefully some radio play and such. The first week doesn’t tell teh whole tale.

Girlygirl and CindyM — yep, KOka also predicted that David A’s music career was over b/c of his Xmas CD! Ha!

i saw this one coming. seriously, LOOK at who he is competing with this week for first week sales. that is insane.

I still think they miscalculated the itune pass’ ¦

saga, you might have a point here. The itunes pass is new for this year and is distinct from the pre-order system. That would be a nice surprise if it would be so.

Also the HDD numbers are for U.S only?

come out of the closet?

sorry just trying to help.heh.;)

snort… luv… are you really 12? you have a very sophisticated sense of humor which is much appreciated…

If there is a significant amount coming in from i-Tunes like from preorders in whatever form they might have taken, I think HDD incorporated that amount into its projection. HDD final numbers always include i-Tunes and other digital sales and they’ve mentioned stuff like big i-Tunes numbers for certain acts before. I’m not expecting Kris’s number to go much up because of the i-Tunes pass.

I hope this prediction turns out to be low. Kris deserves better sales than this.

take some solace kris fans in that opening numbers don’t have to be the sole determinant of eventual success… they are sobering, but they just mean kris, and his label will have to work harder building his brand… david a fin’d 2nd, opened 100k less than the winner in debut album numbers, but by anyone’s barometer, he has achieved great success in a years time… at only 18 years of age… the future looks bright, with the standard caveats, hahah… this is what puts all the craziness and ups and downs in the last year into perspective… 4 mins and 41 secs of why it’s all been worth it… may you soon feel the same

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6FsfvxyyT8&feature=related

I take that to mean physical cds.

No, HDD often uses silly terms like that but they aren’t meant to be taken seriously. Last week they mentioned Best Buy specifically but they absolutely weren’t serious about that.

No matter how much I try to wrap my my around around every reason given for the numbers I still think they’re terrible. Yes sales are on the decline, yes the economy sucks, but if you look at enough sales numbers on a weekly basis there are still plenty of artist, new artists and legends still trucking along selling well. Artists coming off Idol are viewed differently than the average new artist, and for an Idol winner Kris’ numbers are not good IMO. Jordin managed to end up with eventual sales that she did due to massive airplay. She started off much stronger airplay wise than Kris as well.

Adam has Black Friday sales on his side and the AMA’s which will help him, not to mention his pre-orders have trumped Kris for weeks. I have no idea what he’ll sell but I expect a lot more than 75k-85k.

luvadamlambert: I was thinking more along the lines of Kris running up on stage at the American Music Awards after Adam performs and plants a big wet one right smack on his lips. Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

I saw this on the ontd_ai site. an anyone confirm tht’s it is correct?

50 CENTS’S LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 692,000. THIS PREDICTION: 140-150K
NORAH JONES’ LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 405,000. THIS PREDICTION: 150-160K
LEONA LEWIS’ LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 205,000. THIS PREDICTION: 60-65K
ONEREPUBLIC’S LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 75,000. THIS PREDICTION: 40-45K

So if all these established artists are seeing huge drops in these 1st week’s sales from their last album, wouldn’t it be too much to expect any debut artist to put up huge numbers? The Bieber kid will be the highest debut person, and 100-125 K, while certainly good relatively speaking, it’s not exactly massive.

Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

That would probably work for both of them!

Well time will tell on that but I’m gonna say probably not the same. Adam has consistently been in the top 10 on Amazon since his CD went for pre-order whereas Kris hovered in the mid to low 100s for weeks and then slowly crept up into the top 100 in the last week or so. Also on itunes Adam has not fallen below #60, reaching as high actually as #10 on the overall chart. And then there is the fact that it’s Black Friday’ ¦. I don’t see any situation where Adam sells less than 100K CD first week.

Well, its hard to say until Kris’ ACTUAL numbers come in. But so far, despite the huge difference in hype and buzz, Adam has not killed Kris in sales. Not for FYE, not for TFM, not in anything but Amazon preorders, which don’t account for that much. So assuming Kris’ numbers hold, I’m thinking Adam will do 95-100K… in other words, I think he’ll sell between 20-25K more than Kris.

I don’t get it. One of Kris’s albums is ahead of 50 cent right now. Doesn’t that say something?

I was thinking more along the lines of Kris running up on stage at the American Music Awards after Adam performs and plants a big wet one right smack on his lips. Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

I don’t know. I think tongues would have to be involved to get really *big* headlines.

This one is easy. People pay for shows when they want to go out and have fun. Maybe have a good time with a girlfriend, friends, etc. But if you just want the songs you can download them illegally. I’ve been to many shows and I usually don’t buy cds for that reason.

So much talk about the economy and illegal downloads. I do agree the economy is bad but as posters have pointed out, adjusting the numbers for the downturn in sales still gets kris no more than 100K in sales. And the other excuse seems to be that many are downloading illegally which suggests that Kris and Adam fans are much more willing to rip off their chosen American Idols than last year’s fans.

I was thinking more along the lines of Kris running up on stage at the American Music Awards after Adam performs and plants a big wet one right smack on his lips. Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

lol

Chris Daughtry has finally weighed in telling people to buy Kris’ album on twitter. This might open a new group to buying since Daughtry appeals to a new group out there that might not be following Kris but follow him. He of course promotes buying at Wal Mart to get the track he wrote but a sale at Wal Mart is still a sale

Maybe the “heavy duty dialers” from Arkansas are responsible for the fact that Little Rock is leading New York City for the Kradison concert contest!

On the other hand, Kris sold more Idol downloads than Adam. You can attribute some part of this to post-finale sales that were spurred by his victory, but even so, that does not negate his popularity with Idol voters. Heavy dialers aren’t going to buy downloads when one will do. And I say this as someone who voted for Adam in the finale.

I do think that the economy was already depressing album sales last fall when Cook and Archie released their albums. I think that accounts at least in part for why Cook’s sales were so far below Daughtry’s. (Of course, in comparison with Kris’ sales, the Davids’ sales were spectacular.) The effect of the economy on CD sales may be worse now — despite the stock market recovery, unemployment is still climbing — but last year this time people were still wondering whether the U.S. financial system was going to completely collapse. So people weren’t exactly throwing money around last year either.

Some of you brushed on this and I think there’s something to it. Perhaps American Idol Machine itself has lost some of it’s appeal now. Though votes casted week after week were record breaking, the show’s ratings itself was lower than season 7. (And season 7′s ratings were lower than season 6)
If this is the case, then the top 3 (which is Kradison for me) will just have push push push themselves and promote their ass off and get themselves out of the shrinking AI bubble.

On the other hand, Kris sold more Idol downloads than Adam.

Are we really back to this again?
He sold more post finale.
Not more totally.

Unless you have those numbers?

I just don’t think that AI8 Idols have the level of interest that the AI7 Idols had.

Post ho’ing because this:

luvadamlambert: I was thinking more along the lines of Kris running up on stage at the American Music Awards after Adam performs and plants a big wet one right smack on his lips. Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

is so funny. Kris could also get Kanye West to go up there in the middle of Adam’s performance and say, “Imma let you finish, but Kris Allen had the best Idol debut album of all time. Of all time!”

girlygirl

I saw this on the ontd_ai site. an anyone confirm tht’s it is correct?

That was my quote and you can find the info nicely sourced here at HITS Daily Double.

SybilTrelawney
11/18/2009 at 5:03 pm
On the other hand, Kris sold more Idol downloads than Adam.

The Idol sales numbers were never revealed. Post-finale, Kris sold 1 million+ downloads, Adam in the 900K area but this was singles if I’m not mistaken. People here have reported that Adam’s Idol album and videos were big sellers and on the iTunes charts for a long time. I don’t know if we can definitively say that Kris sold more than Adam overall.

ETA: Sorry Buderschnookie! I stepped on your post…

Buderschnookie, I didn’t know that this has been a subject of controversy. Not everyone hangs here all the time. I thought it was total Idol downloads, not just post-finale numbers. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. BTW, like I said above, I wanted Adam to win.

The Bieber kid will be the highest debut person, and 100-125 K, while certainly good relatively speaking, it’s not exactly massive.

I think if Kris was coming in w/100-125K, the mood would be more festive. Just sayin’

I just don’t think that AI8 Idols have the level of interest that the AI7 Idols had.

Using my work place as an unscientific study, I’d say this is true. There used to be several people interested in Idol over the years. Now, I think it’s just me. And TBH, even my fandom is waning. It’s just a sign of the times. Idol is getting old and fans are looking for something new.

I think Idol will have to rethink how they do these albums. Someone mentioned about a week ago here, a “Where are they now” show, in the late Fall featuring the Top 4 would be a good idea. Or, even releasing the first single during the tour. I don’t think it can all be blamed on the economy. The Idol fans are just not there this year. And, I’d have to say, these are 3 very strong albums!

How were Carrie’s HDD numbers and how did they stack up to her actual first week sales? I thought she sold over 300K (for this album) which seems really good in comparison. I know she’s the “queen”, but were her numbers also lower?

Well, its hard to say until Kris’ ACTUAL numbers come in. But so far, despite the huge difference in hype and buzz, Adam has not killed Kris in sales. Not for FYE, not for TFM, not in anything but Amazon preorders, which don’t account for that much. So assuming Kris’ numbers hold, I’m thinking Adam will do 95-100K’ ¦ in other words, I think he’ll sell between 20-25K more than Kris.

No, Adam has not killed Kris in sales but Kris isn’t burning up the charts even though he’s getting really good airplay for his song.

some numbers to consider:

LLWD released 9/25/09 to itunes. #36 on top 40 radio and #21 on HAC. Sold to date 101K total

TFM released 10/20/09 to itunes no radio play to speak of sold to date 76K

FYE released to itunes 2 weeks ago some radio play on top 40 #46 on HAC.. sold to date 44K (compared to Kris’ two week total of 39K and Kris had been added to z100 rotation by that point)…

so a head to head comparison shows that Adam is outpacing Kris even with Kris’ high visibility on radio. try to imagine what Adam’s sales would look like if either song were sitting at the positions Kris’ are on radio airplay charts since they are selling like they are with virtually no airplay.

I just have no clue what the music business is up to these days, and I can’t predict squat. I’m surprised by just how low these numbers all are. Honestly, I’d expect Kris’s numbers to actually increase the week of black Friday due to the sheer volume of shoppers out there that day.

I’m more shocked by the mediocre sales of 50 cent. He’s been staring at me menacingly for days each time I open iTunes, and his promo has seemed more ubiquitous than for the others on the list. He couldn’t even hit 200K?

At least now I know that my ability to predict cd sales numbers is completely non-existent. I’ll know better than to even hazard a guess for Adam or Allison.

LOL, ICU taks.

I am disappointed, of course, in these number, but I think they’re hardly a surprise given the economic conditions. I’m also quite sure Jive isn’t caught off guard by these numbers, either, and they certainly show no sign of letting up on any promotion of Kris, much less any indication they’re ready to cut him loose. They’ve got him so busy he can hardly keep track of where he is from one day to the next. Every business is redefining success and adjusting strategy in this climate; the music business is no exception.

This one is easy. People pay for shows when they want to go out and have fun. Maybe have a good time with a girlfriend, friends, etc. But if you just want the songs you can download them illegally. I’ve been to many shows and I usually don’t buy cds for that reason.

Yup! Make sense to me.

“And the other excuse seems to be that many are downloading illegally which suggests that kris and adam fans are much more willing to rip off their chosen American Idols than last year’s fans”.

Cook and Archuleta’s CD are heavily downloaded on these illegal sites, I have seen the numbers myself. If these people bought these albums instead of illegally downloading them, Cook and Archie would easily sell 3-4 million albums by now. Now are these necessarily fans? I don’t think so. The album is accessible so people just added it to their collection, for free.

I don’t get it. One of Kris’s albums is ahead of 50 cent right now. Doesn’t that say something?

50 cent saw that he had number issues, so he got SoundScan to allow him to combine his first two weeks of sales numbers as his first week. He claimed that he’s album had leaked (it does for everybody) and he needed to release a week early to foil the pirates. That it helps him debut higher helps too.

I think Idol will have to rethink how they do these albums.

Maybe they have been rethinking? Maybe they go for the commercial candidates (and hence the slow singing of Danny). Maybe they are thinking quality is needed to reach outside the AI audience?

SybilTrelawney: Kris could also get Kanye West to go up there in the middle of Adam’s performance and say, ‘Imma let you finish, but Kris Allen had the best Idol debut album of all time. Of all time!’ 

It’s also hard to tell how many of those Archie/Cook illegal downloads were invested fans who downloaded the music to have it now, but still went back to purchase the cd to support their favorite. There really is no reliable way to measure that, I don’t think.

SybilTrelawney: Kris could also get Kanye West to go up there in the middle of Adam’s performance and say, ‘Imma let you finish, but Kris Allen had the best Idol debut album of all time. Of all time!’ 

LOL! Thanks for the laugh! Love it!

I haven’t read this thread, but these numbers were predictable (based on the leading indicators) and a little higher than people who watch the numbers were thinking.

Unequivically, the David’s did better last year.

The wheels have come off the Idol bus. 19 might actually have to put some effort into things now.

Maybe they have been rethinking? Maybe they go for the commercial candidates (and hence the slow singing of Danny). Maybe they are thinking quality is needed to reach outside the AI audience?

If they were rethinking they would realize that they need to stop overpimping – period!!! and they also need to not have major people with in the franchise publicly belittle the winner. both htese things happened this year with the overpimped contestant not winning and as a result a judge and the host going on radio the day after the finale and putting the winner down in a very public way. The show is just losing it’s creditability with the public and I think what we see now is the result.

The wheels have come off the Idol bus. 19 might actually have to put some effort into things now.

Probably the best explanation, Kirsten!

Maybe the ‘heavy duty dialers’  from Arkansas are responsible for the fact that Little Rock is leading New York City for the Kradison concert contest

LR is #1 now? wow, not smart. You would think having the show in big media outlets like NY and LA would be better for all of them. uh…

ybilTrelawney: Kris could also get Kanye West to go up there in the middle of Adam’s performance and say, ‘Imma let you finish, but Kris Allen had the best Idol debut album of all time. Of all time!’ 

LOL maybe Kanye could do it as a favor for Kris for charting “Heartless” once again.

don’t get it. One of Kris’s albums is ahead of 50 cent right now. Doesn’t that say something?

No. Because when Adam’s album went up for presale last week 50 cent’s album was the top album ( must have also been a presale).

I still think this has to do with the industry going soft on piracy laws. A few years ago people were scared by stories of others getting fined for file sharing- now you don’t hear anything about it anymore, so people are probably starting to do it again.

Now that my kid is in college I realize just how rampant it is.

alwaysintrouble, I look at 1st week album sales as more of a hardcore fanbase issue. So if I’m talking about how LLWD, TFM and FYE all did out the gate, before any had real radio play, I’m not seeing much of a difference. Thats what I mean.

And I would disagree that Kris has had “really good airplay”. It’s going in the right direction, but he’s just recently started getting in the range of exposure that would really make a difference.

I do think Adam should sell more albums his debut week, but I’m not convinced it will be that much. Right around 100K seems about right to me personally. At the most he’ll pull Beiber numbers, which ain’t bad at all. But I could easily be wrong. We shall see.

wow, too bad I can’t edit. But I think it’s still possible to understand my last message. LOL

There was a recent article that showed Kris had sold 1.1 million to Adam at just below 1 million. That didn’t include any sales for their current singles (LLWD, FYE or TFM). Going off those numbers (which I believe are just post-fianle, but I’m not sure), then Kris has outsold Adam slightly. Whether these numbers mean anything when it comes to CD sales is still TBD. What I think it does show is that, at least since the show ended, Kris and Adam are on fairly even ground in terms of sales. And it shows that NEITHER has proven himself as able to be a big deal outside the AI bubble quite yet. Maybe that will happen in the future, but it isn’t a certainty by any means.

The show is just losing it’s creditability with the public and I think what we see now is the result.

I think the show is losing credibility but not for the same reasons you think. Another area of thought: peeps outside the AI bubble think someone is the favorite and highly praised-they are shocked when that person doesn’t win. That also causes the show to lose credibility.

Cook and Archuleta’s CD are heavily downloaded on these illegal sites, I have seen the numbers myself. If these people bought these albums instead of illegally downloading them, Cook and Archie would easily sell 3-4 million albums by now. Now are these necessarily fans? I don’t think so. The album is accessible so people just added it to their collection, for free

Thank you SBC. You just made my point. Archuleta and Cook faced the same issues that are facing Adam and Kris. The excuses are not wholly valid.

50 cent saw that he had number issues, so he got SoundScan to allow him to combine his first two weeks of sales numbers as his first week.

I was wondering how 50 cent just seemed to come out of nowhere!

Kelly: 297K
Ruben: 400K
Fantasia: 240K
Carrie: 315K
Taylor: 298K
Jordin: 119K
David: 279K

Based on a conservative 10% per year decrease (Industry average and using Kelly’s 297K as a base this is what the Idols should have sold to match Kelly). [I've read that the decrease is between 8% and 13% per year so I just averaged it]

Kelly: 297K
Rueben: 267K’ ¦.-10%
Fantasia: 241K..-19%
Carrie: 210K’ ¦’ ¦-27%
Taylor: 193K’ ¦’ ¦-35%
Jordin: 175K’ ¦’ ¦-41%
David: 155K’ ¦’ ¦.-47%
Kris: 143K’ ¦’ ¦’ ¦.-52%

As you can see we have ups and downs, some Idols have done real well (DC comes to mind). Now there are a lot of variable in the actual numbers because of fan base, popularity of AI etc. But it does point out that album to album’ ¦Kris and Jordin did and are underperforming in relation to Kelly.

This is the numbers game’ ¦.so take it for what it’s worth!

I don’t think it’s just 19 and the show. Kris was never a very charismatic winner to begin with, I think who he is and the way he presents himself also has some impact.
We’ll see how Adam does next week, but I think we can expect better.

The down music market and the weak economy, alone, do not begin to explain away the massive gap between David Cook’s 280K first week and Kris Allen’s likely 70-80K cume.

The down music market and the weak economy, alone, do not begin to explain away the massive gap between Archuleta’s smashing first single radio and sales performance and Lambert’s rather modest sales and radio play. We’ll see about first week album sales soon enough, but I’d venture that Lambert falls some 70-80K short of the 183K debut of last year’s cherubic runner-up.

I just don’t think that AI8 Idols have the level of interest that the AI7 Idols had.

actually I disagree.just in my life(real life) it was hard for people to name a David but almost everyone I ask(not that I go around saying”do you know who Adam lambert is”? lol) knows Adam frm rs.or AI.

I think season 7 was really boring jmho(I know s7 fans think s8 is boring so ymmv)

I think the show loses credibility everytime someone that the general non AI public views as less talented wins

on a side note Adam’s album has moved back up to #25 on the overall chart

luvadamlambert–apparently, the marketplace disagrees. and so do I, but to each his own. much luck to Adam.

Wow. Uncanny. That’s the number I predicted for Kris Allen. Anyway, a bad debut does not mean bad sales overall. He could still increase sales eventually. Who knows?

But Tess, that argument is only valid if you also include Nielson’s viewership ratings for the show over time. There are so many variables, it’s hard to pin the result on any one thing.

As an example, the audience was huge for season 5 compared to season 1, that would seem to explain some of Taylor’s higher than predicted sales, considering just economic issues. Too many factors.

Boring or not, Cooks seems to have sold really well. And he is selling well during tour from what I have heard. It will be interesting to see how he does with his secodn album.

I think the show loses credibility everytime someone that the general non AI public views as less talented wins

That is what I was trying to say.

I just don’t think that AI8 Idols have the level of interest that the AI7 Idols had.

Using my work place as an unscientific study, I’d say this is true. There used to be several people interested in Idol over the years. Now, I think it’s just me. And TBH, even my fandom is waning.

I think S7 was really probably an aberration in the pattern that was established with the fallout of S5. When winning didn’t mean as much in the “real world,” and when people had bought their share of very-good-under-the-circumstances albums, the bloom fell off the rose.

S7 was an exception, I suspect, because some of the decline in audience numbers masked a washout of viewers to other shows while, at the same time, the writer’s strike washed IN people who would normally be watching scripted shows. Viewers of scripted shows, in the O.C./Greys era, are used to seeing TV as a medium for finding new bands and original music. The iTunes connection worked for those people.

Couple that with Cook appealing to the still-reasonably-active viewers in their early-to-late-30s who connected to grunge the first time and recognized his influences, and a song that reinforced that as a leadoff single, and you got a decent headwind. (And, of course, the Rainbow grabbed some share from people who would probably never have gone for the straight-up rock tracks on the album.)

And Archie had the advantage of being a genuinely sweet enthusiastic young guy with a song tailor-made to appeal to teens/top 40. Kids liked the song; parents liked the idea of their kids liking Archie. (Obviously, he had/has older fans as well, but I think Crush was largely due to strong teen response.)

I don’t suspect either of them to do as well the next round out because I think their own songwriting wheelhouses will shed some of the TOML/CBTM and Crush fans, respectively. Artistically, this is a good thing, in my view. And CHR has gone through phases; it might shift again to something where their music will fit better.

But I don’t think we’re likely to see another insta-star from AI again.

If they were rethinking they would realize that they need to stop overpimping ‘“ period!!! and they also need to not have major people with in the franchise publicly belittle the winner. both htese things happened this year with the overpimped contestant not winning and as a result a judge and the host going on radio the day after the finale and putting the winner down in a very public way. The show is just losing it’s creditability with the public and I think what we see now is the result.

I’m not overpimping and totally agree that Adam was very much praised after the show but I agree with anovich that running a bus over Kris right after the finale was really DUMB .. you got to respect your audience

on a side note Adam’s album has moved back up to #25 on the overall chart

Do you think live streaming the album helped?

snort’ ¦ luv’ ¦ are you really 12?

last time I checked i was.so like yesterday:)
it’s so hard right now to make comments that don’t reference idletard

luvadamlambert: I was thinking more along the lines of Kris running up on stage at the American Music Awards after Adam performs and plants a big wet one right smack on his lips. Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

11/18/2009 at 5:18 pm
SybilTrelawney: Kris could also get Kanye West to go up there in the middle of Adam’s performance and say, ‘Imma let you finish, but Kris Allen had the best Idol debut album of all time. Of all time!’ 

ROTFLMFAO

I think Idol will have to rethink how they do these albums.

I’ve wondered why 19 doesn’t have the singers put out a 7-9 song EP in November or December of the year they were on the show, to be followed up the next year with a deluxe edition of that EP with 5-7 new songs on it. Deluxe/special edition albums are popular now. Beyonce has done this for the past 5-6 years and she’s not in the poor house by any means.

Trying to put out a decent CD of 12-13 songs in 6 months’ time with half that time focused on a national tour has got to be near impossible. That the Idols pull it off is amazing.

It’s never good when Simon badmouths the winner. I don’t think TPTB hate Kris like they hated Taylor but he hasn’t been getting the “winner’s treatment.”

That’s bad for the show. It makes people think what’s the point of voting. The guy that came in second (or 4th or 10th, whatever) is getting the promotion the winner should get. No reflection on who “deserves” it more but it just destroys the premise of the show itself.

luvadamlambert: I was thinking more along the lines of Kris running up on stage at the American Music Awards after Adam performs and plants a big wet one right smack on his lips. Now THAT would be a headline that will sell records! haha

11/18/2009 at 5:18 pm
SybilTrelawney: Kris could also get Kanye West to go up there in the middle of Adam’s performance and say, ‘Imma let you finish, but Kris Allen had the best Idol debut album of all time. Of all time!’ 

YES! Both would be show stoppers and the watercooler talk would linger for weeks.

Do you think live streaming the album helped?

I think Adam has a big banner on the main page of itunes for his album that wasn’t there last week.

Boring or not, Cooks seems to have sold really well. And he is selling well during tour from what I have heard. It will be interesting to see how he does with his secodn album.

Everybody says that he is great live, and his never ending tour is helping a lot to keep selling. I love him, wish I could see him some day.

I think Adam may have this on his side too.

Wow alaadam, you’re right! And that is the deluxe album ( regular album is #190).

The single moved up a couple of spots to #50, and THE BASTARD ALBUM is sitting @ #125!!!!!! WHO IS BUYING THIS ALBUM? I DEMAND YOU SHOW YOURSELVES!

Are these U.S. figures or North America? If they are U.S. is there anywhere where you can see sales outside of the U.S.?

carolinacharms
11/18/2009 at 5:29 pm
luvadamlambert’“apparently, the marketplace disagrees. and so do I, but to each his own. much luck to Adam.

unfortunately,I think it’s good that you’re wishing him luck. because gl probably need it. without a HUGE single like crush, his sales won’t mathch up to archie’s.and he will be considered a failure in AI world for not mathing with the previous season runner-up . and yes,I know the marketplace disagrees with me.good.I’ve always been an AI fan so the more viewers it gets the better.

speaking of archie,for kris’s “attention-getting news” I keep thinking of some scandal involving Archie and kris coming out. maybe involving archie’s Christmas album?

yes, this is what I do with my spare time instead of history homework.I wish I had a life .

think Adam has a big banner on the main page of itunes for his album that wasn’t there last week.

He also has a major add on Facebook- at least my daughter says it pops up on her facebook all the time. Now THAT is smart.

Studio57
11/18/2009 at 5:40 pm
Wow alaadam, you’re right! And that is the deluxe album ( regular album is #190).

The single moved up a couple of spots to #50, and THE BASTARD ALBUM is sitting @ #125!!!!!! WHO IS BUYING THIS ALBUM? I DEMAND YOU SHOW YOURSELVES!

^^THIS^^^ – why would anyone buy that album and support those sleazeballs is beyond me…

“”I don’t think it’s just 19 and the show. Kris was never a very charismatic winner to begin with, I think who he is and the way he presents himself also has some impact.”"

I tend to lean towards the above ^^^ also Leome – he is good but not a power house, he will do just fine in his own small way and I bet he will be very happy with that.

“Everybody says that he is great live, and his never ending tour is helping a lot to keep selling. I love him, wish I could see him some day.”

i also hear his cbtm on the radio here quite a bit too, actually i still hear lo sometimes too. Having music on the radio helps sales.

Only Idol tards care about sales numbers. Do you really think the John Mayer fans, Colbie Caillat fans, etc. are THAT worried about chart placement or weekly sales numbers? Not a chance. In the big picture outside the Idol bubble, Kris isn’t doing any worse than a lot of mainstream artists today. I hear Kris’s LLWD on the radio all the time just like I hear Colbie Caillat’s Falling For You on the radio all the time. And I have no idea how many albums Colbie’s sold and even as a fan of hers, I don’t care as long as I can buy her music, see her shows, and she does well enough to keep on making music. I feel the same way about Kris and all the other Idol singers I like. To me, whether an artist dominates in the industry isn’t as important anymore. Not everyone can be at the top. I wouldn’t expect Adam or Allison to fare much better in terms of first-week sales.

Interesting theory standtotheright! I agree with this part:

I don’t suspect either of them to do as well the next round out because I think their own songwriting wheelhouses will shed some of the TOML/CBTM and Crush fans, respectively. Artistically, this is a good thing, in my view. And CHR has gone through phases; it might shift again to something where their music will fit better.

Yeah. I think both Davids will see drop offs for round 2 (in album sales anyway – unless someone pulls a Breakaway) but I think in the long run both will be able to settle into audiences that respond to their true musical identities, ones that honestly resonate with who they are. In the long run, that’s for the best.

Kris can build a career for himself, IMO, based around HAC/CAC airplay. His advantage is that he’s a decent songwriter with (hopefully) a good band, so making another album for him will not be that expensive, and he has potential as a touring act if he can get a good amount of interest going. If he can do enough this time to get to the next one, he can be a relatively cheap act to put out for Jive.

If they were rethinking they would realize that they need to stop overpimping ‘“ period!!! and they also need to not have major people with in the franchise publicly belittle the winner.

I don’t know if 19 allowed EW to put Adam on their cover two weeks before the finale or if EW just did it on their own, but when that happens–and then that person doesn’t win–it looks really bad for everyone involved. And none of it is the fault of either Kris or Adam.

19 isn’t going to learn. If they haven’t by now, they won’t. The Idols just have to hope that their respective record companies can keep things going in the right direction for them. Jive seems pretty smart and I don’t imagine RCA is completely inept.

I wouldn’t trust Ryan, the judges, or 19 to anything right when it comes to promoting, but not over-pimping contestants. If they love you, they smother to the point of distraction. If they hate you, they’ll find a way to belittle you no matter what you do.

“I still think they miscalculated the itune pass’ ¦
Well, hold the thought, because that would be a very nice surprise for next week!”

This is the first year they’ve had the i-Tunes pass & it seems to have caused some confusion as to whether it has properly been accounted for!!
I for one will wait & see what the ACTUAL figures are for Kris’s sales rather than talk about speculation !!
To me I feel that Kris’s sales will be like he was on AI- they will have legs . Its the long term sales that are important – I don’t know why so much is focussed on the 1st week???
Does anyone have any more long term sales of idols – say after one year – how both singles & albums have done? That to me is a much more logical figure to compare than to theorise about figures that haven’t been confirmed yet!!!!

Anyway you spin it………..it’s not good news, and it doesn’t change the facts.
He is the current Winner, and now has the lowest selling first week total
of all of them.
I just accept it for what it is and move on. I’m not big on making excuses.

“”The guy that came in second (or 4th or 10th, whatever) is getting the promotion the winner should get.

I think that maybe this is just because the guy or girl who came in 2nd or 4th is just better in any given year and that cannot be helped. The winner is the one that the people voted for and loved at the time but the others go on to prove why they are actually the better performer or entertainer, they have the whole package versus just a very nice voice?

It’s never good when Simon badmouths the winner. I don’t think TPTB hate Kris like they hated Taylor but he hasn’t been getting the ‘winner’s treatment.’ 

It’s pretty obvious that Adam was supposed to be the winner of S8 with Danny probably coming in second. I always think it’s bad for the show. It makes people think what’s the point of voting. The guy that came in second (or 4th or 10th, whatever) is getting the promotion the winner should get. No reflection on who ‘deserves’  it more but it just destroys the premise of the show itself.

Ah what promotion has Adam received that Kris hasn’t from 19E?

It could be that it doesn’t help Kris at all that John Mayer who has a similar style of music as Kris released his album at the same time. Or it could be that Kris’s album is not that great therefore noone is buying.

Did Simon actually diss Kris right after the finale? And Seacrest too? Somehow I missed that.

lets wait until next week sales predictions before talking about the effects of charisma and how anyone presents themselves. Adam is supposed to be the most exciting Idol contestant ever and so far his airplay and sales have been less than exciting.

Chances are he’ll sell more but I don’t expect him to triple, heck even double 80k. More like 85-90k. Which will probably account for Amazon sales…whatever those are.

ah what promotion?

Google ads, Facebook ads, singing at the AMA. You know that kind of stuff. I’m not saying its wrong or right but it’s pretty obvious where 19 is putting their $.

jpfan
11/18/2009 at 5:37 pm
It’s never good when Simon badmouths the winner. I don’t think TPTB hate Kris like they hated Taylor but he hasn’t been getting the ‘winner’s treatment.’ 

What winner’s treatment hasn’t he gotten that’s been 19 generated?? He got the shows that Adam didn’t get after the finale. He got the AOL Sessions listening party. He got to release first. He has the most coverage from both EW and MTV, they slobber over him every chance they get. He got the GMA Fall Concert, he got Regis. If other outlets don’t want him, you need to look at why. I know that Kris fans love his laid back nature and low-key interviewing style. But, for magazines..does that really sell?? In interviews with interviewers he really likes, he’s great. Very witty, dry humor. But if not, you get answers like “it’s about a guitar”. If you were looking at selling your product, who would you pick? He didn’t get the AMA’s, that’s true, but Kris’s reviews from the concert didn’t exactly tout charismatic performances. David Cook got the AMA preshow and he’s charismatic as hell. Sometimes that’s all it is.

I also think that Kris’s statements about his experience recording the album haven’t helped. Telling Lyndsey Parker that a song you wrote was about your frustration with the label and the recording process. Saying LLWD isn’t really your favorite. Saying you’re not happy with Heartless on the album. I know Kris is being honest, but sometimes the lack of enthusiasm can hurt you.

Oh & I love Kris talking to Jim about an “ACOUSTIC EP “!! Wouldn’t that be fabulous if it did happen!! That would appease fans who thought this album didn’t have enough acoustic flavour!!

Sorry when Simon says the wrong person won that means something.
RCA/19 have sunk a ton of $ in Adam’s album. Again, they may be betting on the right horse. That’s not my call.

I would like to add MJ off topic that trying to edit is a pain in the butt.

jpfan
11/18/2009 at 5:51 pm
ah what promotion?

Google ads, Facebook ads, singing at the AMA. You know that kind of stuff. I’m not saying its wrong or right but it’s pretty obvious where 19 is putting their $.

Oh come on, let’s be fair here, what about Kris’ Ellen and Tonight show appearances and radio promo ???????

Just to clarify….My little numbers chart was only to show numbers based on the available numbers criteria of a decline of about 10% per year in album sales over the last 8 years. And I only used Kelly’s number because I needed a base point.

Based on what I learned running the numbers is that it looks like DC had a very good opening week.

Now what I need to do is get the overall numbers of debut albums and run the same numbers. But that becomes problamatic because how do you weigh 8 years of sales for Kelly’s album against 1 year for Cook. Numbers….gotta love em.

Where is Truthiness, my sister in solidarity?

I’m not wildly unhappy with Kris’s #. Shocking, I know, but, based on album sales for the last few weeks, I would’ve been happy with 50k, which happens to be right around what OneRepublic is expected to sell, and what Jordin’s recent album did sell. Look again at those #s for this week’s debuts vs each artist’s previous debut week sales:

50 CENTS’S LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 692,000. THIS PREDICTION: 140-150K
NORAH JONES’ LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 405,000. THIS PREDICTION: 150-160K
LEONA LEWIS’ LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 205,000. THIS PREDICTION: 60-65K
ONEREPUBLIC’S LAST FIRST WEEK SALES: 75,000. THIS PREDICTION: 40-45K

This week’s sales for these artists are down ~50-80% from their previous releases. Yes, an occasional superstar or hot debut artist will pull in huge #’s, but they really the are exceptions this year. I think people are still buying CDs, but they’ll only pay for their 1 or 2 top favs in a crowded week like this, and will either pirate the rest, or put off buying them for a while. Hopefully Kris will have continued visibilty through appearances and radio, and people will eventually get around to buying his album.

Last year, ironically enough, many posters spent the first few weeks that David Cook’s album was on sale pointing out that big first week sales don’t always equal strong long term sales, with Taylor Hicks being the prime example. (Taylor actually sold about as much as Archie, but Archie’s getting a 2nd album, while Taylor didn’t. Shows you how times have changed.) Now we’re hearing that Kris is in bad shape because of 1 week’s worth of sales. After watching music sales for a year, I can say that there is no one right way to sell- you can start off high and finish low or in the middle, sell low at first and take off later (Jordin), have a platinum single or 2 and a gold album (Archie), have slow, steady sales that actually improve over time because of highly successful singles (Pink, GaGa, KoL), have your songs featured on a TV show, then have radio pick you up (ADELE), and a zillion other ways.

Sorry when Simon says the wrong person won that means somethi

When did he say that? IIRC he was asked where Kris would rank among the prior Idol winners and he said something like similar to Ruben, or just above him or something….

Come on when Kris shows up at the AMA to give out an award while Adam performs, most TV watchers will figure out pretty quickly who the “real winner” of S8 is.
I’m not arguing the point though. Dead horse beaten and done.

Oh come on, let’s be fair here, what about Kris’ Ellen and Tonight show appearances and radio promo ???????

Radio may be what keeps Kris’s sales from freefalling down the Billboard 200. And if LLWD becomes more popular it’ll probably help the album in the long run.

This is just predictions right! All Kris Allen fans can still change this…tell all ur friends to buy the album!

Google ads, Facebook ads, singing at the AMA. You know that kind of stuff. I’m not saying its wrong or right but it’s pretty obvious where 19 is putting their $.

I don’t think they paid for the AMA’s… if they could they would have done so for all their idols. We’ve discussed this before to death.

HDD usually overpredicts an Idol’s numbers so the initial prediction might even be higher than what it ends up as.

80,000 first week is a disaster. Yes, Jordin only sold around 40,000 more her first week in a bad economy, but Jordin was only saved from being dropped by having monster singles. I doubt she will be making a third album with Jive if her next single performs as poorly as S.O.S. Kris now needs a hit desperately, to give at least some kind of legs to his album. If by the time they are done with singles on this album he is not at Gold, I think his future with Jive will be in dire straits. I am expecting this summer another Idol bloodletting if things don’t improve.

I don’t know if 19 allowed EW to put Adam on their cover two weeks before the finale or if EW just did it on their own

They can’t ask any magazine to not use stock pictures for a cover. The only thing they could do is not allow Adam to give an interview, and they did.

I don’t know if 19 allowed EW to put Adam on their cover two weeks before the finale or if EW just did it on their own

They can’t ask any magazine to not use stock pictures for a cover. The only thing they could do is not allow Adam to give an interview, and they did.

Sorry when Simon says the wrong person won that means somethi

When did he say that? IIRC he was asked where Kris would rank among the prior Idol winners and he said something like similar to Ruben, or just above him or something’ ¦.

mmb, if you add the scorn vibe, you get easily the picture that the wrong one has win..

Maybe someone who has the time will look this up in the archives but I could SWEAR that for a couple of weeks after the finale, they were counting the sales of the Itunes pass. Just like they were for Adam’s Season 8 album. Does anyone remember this but me? Am I crazy? Didn’t Kris have a Season 8 album AND an Itunes pass? And they both charted at the time?

It just makes absolutely no sense that after 5 months he only sold 80,000 units. I’d be willing to bet the 80,000 is in addition to sales from after the finale.

Does anyone have any more long term sales of idols ‘“ say after one year ‘“ how both singles & albums have done? That to me is a much more logical figure to compare than to theorise about figures that haven’t been confirmed yet!!!!

This might be considered OT, but I’ll post in response to the question. I found estimated figures for Cook. Hopefully others will come forward with additional idol’s stats.

David Cook CD: 1.25+ million
Time of my Life coronation single: 1.3+ million
Light On: 1.0+ million
Come Back to Me (1/2 year): 359K
Permanent (Idol finale performance): 167k

studio57;yeah I remember….maybe the predictions dont count that?

For whatever reason, S8 numbers haven’t come close to S7 in sales.
First week singles sales from S8 have been terrible. So Kris’ low album sales aren’t really a surprise. I still believe Adam will have a good first week. If he doesn’t, oh boy.

I would like to add MJ off topic that trying to edit is a pain in the butt.

In my case, to be honest, I never got any option to edit a post. Weird.

I would like to add MJ off topic that trying to edit is a pain in the butt.

In my case, to be honest, I never got any option to edit a post. Weird.

I think they are counting iTunes downloads. Apparently they know that 50 cent sold 46k downloads last week. So I’m sure they could have easily gotten iTunes pre-order/pass numbers as well.

omk,I love “the truth”.probably my favorite song on ” Kris Allen”.

Simon and Ryan insulting Kris made me feel better.I was a bitterbert,still am.don’t hate Kris(actually I love Kris) but know adam’s the winner. ughhhh I don’t even wanna talk about how happend after the finale.anyway I’m beating a dead horse.moving on..,

I’m a little disappointed in the HDD numbers, but I’m not giving up on the boy. I guess it’s time for Idol to get in line with real artists’ numbers. One Republic’s numbers are in the 40,000 range, which is surprising to me. The Walmart I went to was pretty “dead” on Tuesday. I’m not in the music industry so whether or not these predictions hold true or if there are anamolies that might shake them up a bit at the last count, I couldn’t say. I think 19/Jive must have an inkling of what the numbers will be — but then again the handling of Adam has been odd to me. As I said, hopefully Jive is looking long-term with Kris. They might eventually get their own version of a John Mayer, if they do so.

Got to run to my daughter’s basketball game. Hope the above makes sense ….

I could SWEAR that for a couple of weeks after the finale, they were counting the sales of the Itunes pass.

You probably saw it on the iTunes chart, not the actual Billboard sales figures. The iTunes album page shows preorders, but Soundscan doesn’t count them. The pass is, in the end, another form of preorder. Kris isn’t the first artist to have a pass, just the first Idol. Soundscan, Billboard, and iTunes would have already established how they’re counted long before Kris’s pass became available.

I’m not sure what the glowing predictions of good first week sales for Adam are based on. His sales and radio play are pretty dismal so far, and, historically, runner ups are way more likely to flop than winners. I haven’t seen any hard #s yet that make me think Adam will do more than approximately equal to Kris. Maybe the AMA performance will boost him, maybe not. Maybe Kris will have better numbers next week because of Black Friday, and the AMAs, and their sales could end up being the same or really different if you total up 2 weeks worth. All we can say right now, though, is that Adam’s sales have not lived up to his hype, and 5 out of 7 runner ups have been dropped by their label after their first album, while only 1 winner has. I don’t think Adam’s success is a sure thing by any means. Not that Kris’s is either, but Jive is known for being patient and frugal, while RCA is not. Adam most likely needs to sell more than Kris to keep his record label to begin with.

I still believe Adam will have a good first week. If he doesn’t, oh boy.

“good” or “good compared to other artists” ? because he’s going up against Rihanna ,SuBo,and Shakira to name a few…

Crayonas
11/18/2009 at 6:04 pm
I don’t know if 19 allowed EW to put Adam on their cover two weeks before the finale or if EW just did it on their own

They can’t ask any magazine to not use stock pictures for a cover. The only thing they could do is not allow Adam to give an interview, and they did.

The EW article did not include a fresh interview with Adam but old quotes. kind of like using stock footage. It was more an article about Adam than an interview with Adam.

Ugh.

looks like Kris Allen will be just around Kellie Pickler’s first week sales for her debut album. i gathered numbers of first week sales of AI DEBUT ALBUMS.

01 CLAY AIKEN Measure of a Man 612K
02 RUBEN STUDDARD Soulful 416K
03 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Somehearts 315K
04 CHRIS DAUGHTRY Daughtry 304K
05 TAYLOR HICKS Taylor Hicks 298K
06 KELLY CLARKSON Thankful 297K
07 DAVID COOK David Cook 280K
08 FANTASIA BARRINO Free Yourself 239K
09 BO BICE The Real Thing 227K
10 JENNIFER HUDSON Jennifer Hudson 217K
11 DAVID ARCHULETA David Archuleta 183K
12 JORDIN SPARKS Jordin Sparks 119K
13 KATHARINE MCPHEE Katharine McPhee 116K
14 BLAKE LEWIS Audio Day Dream 98K
15 ELLIOTT YAMIN Elliott Yamin 90K
16 KELLIE PICKLER Small Town Girl 79K
17 BUCKY COVINGTON Bucky Covington 61K
18 JOSH GRACIN Josh Gracin 57K
19 JUSTIN GUARINI Justin Guarini 57K
20 KIMBERLY LOCKE One Love 57K

Hoping that Kris’ album will have a steady sales in the next coming weeks.

WOW, this is horrible, I can’t believe the numbers are this low.
There is something very wrong with the idol sales this year and I don’t know what explains the situation, but the guys at 19 must be scratching their head.

I’m having massive deja vu from the single release right about now.

I expected Kris to debut with moderate sales, honestly. So I’m pretty happy about this. It fits the pattern from LLWD. If he can keep his sales steady, then he’ll be fine.

I’d be more worried about Adam actually. TFM and FYE have sold more initially than LLWD, no question, but by not nearly as much as people were expecting. I anticipate the album selling more than Kris as well, but if the pattern holds, it won’t be by that much. And RCA doesn’t seem to be as willing to treat the idol alums as “new artists” as Jive is.

But then, in the end, I’m sure they’ll both do well enough. They’re talented guys. They’ll prove themselves.

I hate reading this . . . but times have changed. It just isn’t fair to compare, say, Ruben’s first week sales with Kris. People are not buying CDs like they did. The economy and, frankly, stealing music is just too darned easy. The reason to buy Kris’s CD is for the packaging, not the music because the music is so easy to rip off the net or from someone else’s CD.

I can’t believe that the music industry hasn’t found a solution to the music theft problem.

It is a good album. I expect that I will buy it (or cause it to be bought for me).

Can someone please explain to me how exactly people come up with these figures? I’m terribly new to all this and I just wanna figure out how someone could estimate these things, especially in such a tricky environment these days where we’re in a recession, and not a lot of people buy albums anymore, just singles.

Studio57
11/18/2009 at 6:05 pm
Maybe someone who has the time will look this up in the archives but I could SWEAR that for a couple of weeks after the finale, they were counting the sales of the Itunes pass. Just like they were for Adam’s Season 8 album. Does anyone remember this but me? Am I crazy? Didn’t Kris have a Season 8 album AND an Itunes pass? And they both charted at the time?

If it’s like other passes, they count the album when it’s delivered, ie downloaded. It can chart on Itunes like a presale, but on the billboard charts the only albums I remember seeing were the season 8 compilations. You can check back in the archives of Mansfield’s USA Today column though to make sure.

I did a little work for you, here’s the sales figures for a week after the finale from Brian. Kris’s Itunes pass isn’t listed, thus sales weren’t counted then. They’d be counted now because of downloads and I would imagine that HDD would know that. Other artists have passes, don’t they??

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/idolchatter/post/2009/05/67370685/1

Not only has the music industry changed, but also the television business as well. MTV has lost all of it’s credibility, The only credible thing it had was TRL, which ended last year *tear*. Music videos arent being played like they used to.

The only channel I can think of, is VH1′s top 20 countdown. I’m not sure how high the voting numbers/ratings are for that. I think if the video for LLYD came out earlier, and actually made it on the countdown, the sales of the cd would increase.

I don’t think Idol’s impact on music has changed. IMO it’s still a heavy hitter, and sells well. I just think they should of promoted Kris much earlier.

They should of picked the single in August/September and had it on the radio by the end of September, and quickly released the video. The last minute releases don’t help him.

During the Idol tour last year “Crush” was already out on the radio.

The EW article did not include a fresh interview with Adam but old quotes. kind of like using stock footage. It was more an article about Adam than an interview with Adam.

Exactly.

Kirsten
11/18/2009 at 5:18 pm
The wheels have come off the Idol bus. 19 might actually have to put some effort into things now.

I’m leaning toward this explanation as well. The overall decline in music sales only goes so far in explaining these numbers. The remainder of the decline really has to be attributable to the AI8 contestants coming off the show without the sizable, dedicated fanbases that the AI7 contestants had. I hope the show rethinks the changes they made in AI8 for AI9.

Those numbers are ugly. I had hoped that Kris would do so much better, but I should have known his first week would look like this, considering the sales/airplay of LLWD.

I’m so glad he’s with Jive. If he was on RCA, with numbers like these, it would just be a matter of time before he was dropped.

They should of picked the single in August/September and had it on the radio by the end of September, and quickly released the video. The last minute releases don’t help him.

Uh,,,they did that. Kris’s single premiered on September 21st. The video did come later, but the single was out to radio by the end of September.

My suggestion to Kris ala Danny Gokey… go Country! yeehaw!

I did a little work for you, here’s the sales figures for a week after the finale from Brian. Kris’s Itunes pass isn’t listed, thus sales weren’t counted then

Wow. A half a year of sales and only 80,000? Hopefully there is a mistake somewhere.

i figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 – 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.

so kris fans be prepared by the assault the crazy** adam’s fans are going to give us. they will gloat adam is selling alot more without radio play and how he is the real “winner”. but in the end adam will not be able to expand his ai audience and kris will. so be strong. just remember this is a bad economy and some people will only buy an album if they like at least 3 songs on it (like me normally). it will happen just slowly. kinda like how kris won american idol.

**the overzealous fans. i don’t mean all adam’s fans.

19 needs to stop doing things last minute. They feel all high and mighty since 30 million people watch they show, and feel like the artists need no promotion.

I think they are in the idol bubble themselves.

kiss kiss
11/18/2009 at 6:33 pm
Those numbers are ugly. I had hoped that Kris would do so much better, but I should have known his first week would look like this, considering the sales/airplay of LLWD.

I’m so glad he’s with Jive. If he was on RCA, with numbers like these, it would just be a matter of time before he was dropped.

Why? Is RCA notorious for dropping artists with low sales?

Guys… don’t be so worried about Kris okay? These are just predictions first of all, and second we should be sending positive energy to Kris… and Adam for that matter… the point is.. Kris will sell well enough to get a second album, I am sure… I don’t know how accurate these estimates are.. but basically, what I’m saying is don’t get too worried yet!

Kris is an amazing artist and his talent WILL carry him through… I still truly believe Kris will be a legend someday.. he’s got it man.. trust me.. he does

Adam does too.. both these guys are gonna be amazing.. trust me.

I’m so glad he’s with Jive. If he was on RCA, with numbers like these, it would just be a matter of time before he was dropped.

I agree.

But I think that Jive was ready for this. I’ve thought since the beginning that Jive was marketing Kris more as a “new artist” than as an “American Idol Winner.” The advantage to that is that if they’re marketing him as a new artist, that probably means that they expected him to sell like a new artist.

For an American Idol winner, the sales are dismal. For a new and unproven artist, they’re not bad at all.

i figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 ‘“ 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.

so kris fans be prepared by the assault the adam’s fans are going to give us. they will gloat adam is selling alot more without radio play. but in the end adam will not be able to expand his ai audience and kris will. so be strong. just remember this is a bad economy and people will only buy an album if they like at least 3 songs on it. it will happen just slowly. kinda like how kris won american idol.

I think you are fantasizing but if it works for you *shrugs*.

Wow. A half a year of sales and only 80,000? Hopefully there is a mistake somewhere.

Sometimes the dedicated fan base doesn’t pre-order a couple of copies of an album every week. Sometimes, they are sane.

First week sales, by and large, go to the dedicated fans. It doesn’t really matter if you offer 6 months or 1 months of pre-sales.

you are so right Ki1lerQueen..and i don’t think Kris expects his album to be #1 in terms of sales….

i’m sure what he wants is for his fans to love the album..which we do!!!

Starr
Can someone please explain to me how exactly people come up with these figures? I’m terribly new to all this and I just wanna figure out how someone could estimate these things, especially in such a tricky environment these days where we’re in a recession, and not a lot of people buy albums anymore, just singles.

If you’re talking about the HDD estimates of album sales . . . HDD creates their estimates based on data they’re getting from actual retailers.

Not critics, entertainment writers, or labels, all of whom are influenced by whom they want to sell. But just the various merchants who really sell records, and don’t care whose it is, as long as it sells. Their estimates are sometimes wrong, but often very, very close.

After reading some of this thread, I still can’t believe the numbers are this low.
The economy doesn’t explain half of this, Season 8 wasn’t the most popular season ever but the ratings were still good.

Frankly, I would be very worried for all three of the people with major label deals, they could be dropped by next year if the numbers stay the same.

This is a nice article from Access Hollywood on Kris:

Kris Allen is an Idol Who Delivers

This may seem unrelated but I don’t think so…what were the overall Nielsen ratings for American Idol Season 8 versus 7 (and other seasons)? These sales could be reflecting the decline of the Idol brand.

I think there’s a reason there’s so much buzz over an American “X Factor,” and just because contracts are signed to do Idol by the judges and host doesn’t obligate Fox to continue airing the program.

Sometimes the dedicated fan base doesn’t pre-order a couple of copies of an album every week. Sometimes, they are sane.

lol

Why? Is RCA notorious for dropping artists with low sales?

I think that people assume this because Jive seemed so patient with Jordin, while Blake was dropped quickly but he was with Arista I believe (Taylor too). Kat Mcphee, Bo Bice, Diana Degarmo, and Clay Aiken are the idols who have all been dropped by RCA. Fantasia and Ruben were with J record.

okay.. i also have to say one more thing…. if adam sells better.. WHO CARES! good for adam.. trust me, I am a bigger Kris fan, but even if Adam did sell better, then that’s fine!

let’s stop comparing these two.. let’s just be happy for both of them.. they will both find extreme success… I’m not just saying that to make myself feel better either, I just truly believe it! They both have insane amounts of talent and extremely good music! Can we start supporting that people or is it just gonna be comparing these two FRIENDS for the rest of their careers?

i figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 ‘“ 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.

so kris fans be prepared by the assault the crazy** adam’s fans are going to give us. they will gloat adam is selling alot more without radio play and how he is the real ‘winner’ . but in the end adam will not be able to expand his ai audience and kris will. so be strong. just remember this is a bad economy and some people will only buy an album if they like at least 3 songs on it (like me normally). it will happen just slowly. kinda like how kris won american idol.

We shall see! Do you mind if I save your quote for use later on? J/K

It’s a good thing Kris has a really strong first album that can appeal to non-Idol fans because he clearly needs it. (I have a feeling I will be writing this exact same sentence about Adam in a week.)

I honestly think all these low numbers for both Kris and Adam can be traceable to the complaints people had about the season. Viewers felt like there was an over-focus on the judges and that they didn’t get to “know” the contestants. Without that emotional connection, AI viewers just aren’t rushing out to buy the albums no matter how talented these 2 are.

Kirsten- are you saying Kris fans don’t buy more than one copy?

I agree about first week sales, but in essence if this is true that this sales number includes all sales from the last 6 months, he has TWO first week sales- the first week sales momentum after the finale and also on the sale date of 11/17. He also should have gotten sales bumbs after they had offers during the tour, right?

Sometimes the dedicated fan base doesn’t pre-order a couple of copies of an album every week. Sometimes, they are sane.

Well, if you’re talking about Amazon pre-sales, they’re limited for anyone in the Top 10. Someone couldn’t order 2 copies every week even if they wanted to, which I doubt. Kris fans could have bought multiples more than three, because I don’t think he ever made it to Top 10 on Amazon. I wouldn’t have expected him to, though, because he had the IPass.

IMO, It can also sometimes be so simple as a dedicated fan base who dials and texts like crazy doesn’t equal a large number of fans. I think that’s been proven this year by both contestants in their first week single sales.

I think you are fantasizing but if it works for you *shrugs*.

trust me i know what i’m talking about. i’ve been following AI since season 2. i’m rarely wrong as far as single & album sales. but that’s neither here nor there. just talk to more two weeks after adam’s album drops.

i figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 ‘“ 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.

Is this based on your personal opinion or do you have professional expeirience to back this up?

Studio57
11/18/2009 at 6:56 pm
Kirsten- are you saying Kris fans don’t buy more than one copy?

Well, we know that’s not true. We’ve had Kris fans on this board talk about downloading from Itunes and buying at a retail store. Seen it at other boards too, including GossipCandy, ONTD_AI and IDF. So, yeah.

I’m dreading next week when Adam fans try to rub it in if he does significantly better. I just think Adam is more likely to be a similar story to Taylor Hicks while Kris has always been the slow grower, YMMV.

AZIdolFan
i figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 ‘“ 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.
so kris fans be prepared by the assault the crazy** adam’s fans are going to give us. they will gloat adam is selling alot more without radio play and how he is the real ‘winner’ . but in the end adam will not be able to expand his ai audience and kris will. so be strong. just remember this is a bad economy and some people will only buy an album if they like at least 3 songs on it (like me normally). it will happen just slowly. kinda like how kris won american idol.
**the overzealous fans. i don’t mean all adam’s fans.

Wow, very impressive foresight. When you’re finished with the crystal ball, can I borrow it?

HDD has changed their predictions for Kris to 85-90,000.

AZIdolFan
11/18/2009 at 6:57 pm
trust me i know what i’m talking about. i’ve been following AI since season 2. i’m rarely wrong as far as single & album sales. but that’s neither here nor there. just talk to more two weeks after adam’s album drops.

Don’t know you well enough to trust you. Point me to some of your prior prognostications. There are archives, here, right?? I’d be interested to read them. It’s not often I find a prophet in my midst.

I’m fairly certain Kirsten was just making a joke about buying a couple of albums every week. Levity is definitely needed here.

Adam’s album moved to #25? I can’t check from work, thank you, thank you, THANK YOU! It IS an awesome album, if only people gave it a chance and listened with an open mind. His image while exiting for a lot of people, is puting off to some as well. Hell, I have been trying to convince my own family to give it a try, without much success. My husband finally gave in and actually liked soaked and sure fire winners, we grew up in eastern europe in the 70-80s, so Adams sound is very appealing for him once he gave it a try.

I love Adam as an artist and as a human being, i cannot even imagine the amount of pressure he is under, so I dont want to speculate on how many he will sell or why he is not on the radio yet,even though he is better that anything on the radio right now. I just want to wish him best of luck and to stay the same cool and adorable self that he is. Rock on, Adam!!!

The down music market and the weak economy, alone, do not begin to explain away the massive gap between David Cook’s 280K first week and Kris Allen’s likely 70-80K cume.

That’s not a gap, its more like a mountain heh.

Why? Is RCA notorious for dropping artists with low sales?

RCA and Arista. RCA dropped Bo Bice despite selling 750,000 CD’s. Arista dropped Taylor as well for not selling platinum. Jive has shown they’re more patient especially considering how slow moving Jordin’s sales always were. I don’t know if Jive has a limit though tbh. Kris really, really needs a huge radio hit otherwise he may even struggle to sell what Archie has sold. RCA dropped Clay recently but he sold, what like 4 million CD’s over the course of 4 years? IMO they were patient with him because he had a good previous track record with sales.

Sorry when Simon says the wrong person won that means something.

Not only that, he put Kris above Taylor (I think Taylor and Ruben?). Not exactly glowing from him.

HDD counts pre-orders all the time in their projections and all the iTunes Pass was a different form of a pre-order. Like I said the other day, I’ve yet to see any proof that Pass sold a substantial amount even after the finale. If it shot up to the Top 5 and stayed there for weeks then I would buy that but it didnt and it hasnt been visible on any iTunes charts since. To rack up an impressive number of pre-orders you need to go high, and stay there for a while.

Sometimes the dedicated fan base doesn’t pre-order a couple of copies of an album every week. Sometimes, they are sane.

ITA- I suspect with the bad economy, it seems foolish to pre-order a couple of albums a week for a guy you don’t know. I think Adam’s sells will be similar to Kris (perhaps 15 percent higher), and for the same reasons.

There is a missing link that we may never know….the #of down loads that David Cook received during season 7. I am not throwing this out to compare Idols…but I do think that year was not the typical season.

Kris is a talented, likeable guy. Is he a superstar? Will be interesting to see if there is a big tour scheduled. I had to stop and wonder about the Kris-Adam-Allison concert competion. IMO another means to generate interest. At some point there has to be an over saturation of all things American Idol. And now we have a bad economy. Who knows exactly what factors are coming into play.

Okay, I’m really sick of hardcore Adam fans and hardcore Kris fans fighting…

I’m a hardcore Kris fan and I just have to say to some fellow Kris fans.. quit saying Adam has crazy fans! It’s annoying… yes he may have some.. but who doesn’t? Stop saying that when Adam is successful it’s just because he has crazy fans.. be HAPPY for him! It’s not that hard to do…. if you don’t like him, then just ignore him.. focus on Kris… I like Adam a lot.. I LOVE Kris, but I’m sick of Adam fans getting called crazy and over the top and stuff…

Let’s just let things run okay? Kris will be fine! relax a bit people… both of them are insanely talented… lets just celebrate the good music coming our way from BOTH of them!

so kris fans be prepared by the assault the crazy** adam’s fans are going to give us. they will gloat adam is selling alot more without radio play and how he is the real ‘winner’ . but in the end adam will not be able to expand his ai audience and kris will. so be strong. just remember this is a bad economy and some people will only buy an album if they like at least 3 songs on it (like me normally). it will happen just slowly. kinda like how kris won american idol.

**the overzealous fans. i don’t mean all adam’s fans.

Give it a rest. Geez. Unless you have a crystal ball.. I think I’ll wait for making predictions on blood letting.

anovich
11/18/2009 at 7:01 pm
I’m dreading next week when Adam fans try to rub it in if he does significantly better. I just think Adam is more likely to be a similar story to Taylor Hicks while Kris has always been the slow grower, YMMV.

This is one fan who won’t be rubbing anything in if it happens. There were a lot of gracious Adam fans who congratulated Kris on his Itunes ranking on release date. I’m worried for Adam’s sales, if he does well, I’ll be thankful. I really don’t see that they even go after the same music buying market. As far as these guys go, I don’t see the comparison to Taylor Hicks, musically they couldn’t be more different. I don’t see it at all. In fact, Taylor Hicks was criticized for winning his season over Daughtry. Kind of the same criticism from the media about Kris. I want both these guys to be successful and for BOTH of them, I’m not willing to write them off after a week, a month or even 3 months of sales.

i figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 ‘“ 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.

riiiiiiiight………..

and I’m having Adam’s baby…..we can both dream

I think the comparison between Taylor and Adam comes in with the perception that both have a very very devoted fanbase. Taylor definitely had that with his “soul patrol” and Adam definitely has that now. It wasn’t enough to carry Taylor.

That said, I don’t think Taylor bears much similarity to Adam or Kris. Both Adam and Kris have contemporary sounds and a greater ability to connect with the non-AI audience than he did, in my opinion. I don’t see either following his career path.

“”figured kris would be between 75 and 100. he will be steady in the weeks following. adam will do alot better 1st week out around 150 ‘“ 175 but adam’s second week will be an 85% drop. and then it will get worse. in the end kris will out sell adam, probably by 350,000 or more.”"

Oh really ^^^ LOL – how funny – I think Kris will do just fine but not that well but pretty darn good for a small town guy – I am happy for him.

First of all let me tell you I am an Adam fan. I have to admit I was shocked by the sales totals of FYE so I am not going to be gloating about Kris’s sales. All I want is for Adam to be successful. To be truthful, I believe in Karma, and if Kris should have low sales and I gloat, I feel that it will come back to haunt Adam. Do I sound nutty. I guess I do. Anyways, I hope Kris does well and if his sales are low, well over time he will make up the totals. I expect the same to happen to Adam.

IMO, It can also sometimes be so simple as a dedicated fan base who dials and texts like crazy doesn’t equal a large number of fans. I think that’s been proven this year by both contestants in their first week single sales.

It was already proven by the fact that despite vote totals going up each year, tv ratings and viewership have generally been on a downward slide.

LLWD went up on the Hot 100:

70 KRIS ALLEN LIVE LIKE WE’RE DYING (lw 92)

On Itunes, FYE the single is now at #49, which is not high, of course, but higher than it’s been, as I recall. How the heck is that happening with so little radio play or, really, anything else? I mean, I like it, but I don’t get it. ….

Sorry when Simon says the wrong person won that means something.

Yeah, it means that Simon is bitter when he doesn’t get his way. He said the right guy won when Ruben Studdard one. Didn’t do much for poor Ruben.
Adam’s had twice as many chances as Kris to have a HIT SONG….and he hasn’t delivered yet. (no bo, want, TFM and FYE vs no bo, LLWD).
After 8 seasons, no one is buying on name alone.

Current I-Tunes ranks when I opened my store:

Albums: Kris #10 and #12
Adam #23

Singles: LLWD #45
FYE #49

Maybe the most recent email they sent out is helping it has a very nice pic of Adam at the top, then Kris and Allison.

Kris fans are no different than other fanbases… they’re just a lot less

Well, All I can say to y’all is I love most of Kris’s new album and not only did I order the iTunes pass, I couldn’t resist going to Walmart and picking up a second copy for my car (yeah,I know I can make copies of my music from my iTunes). Don’t know how well Kris’s album will do but hope it is way better than the numbers “predicted”

Wow, very impressive foresight. When you’re finished with the crystal ball, can I borrow it?

I think that ball may have a little crack.

anovich
11/18/2009 at 7:01 pm
I’m dreading next week when Adam fans try to rub it in if he does significantly better. I just think Adam is more likely to be a similar story to Taylor Hicks while Kris has always been the slow grower, YMMV.

I’m sure some fan some where will say something.. but for the most part.. from what I’ve read here and on Adam only boards, no one is ready to pounce. They’ve mostly moved on, but there will always be trouble makers. Just as a few Kris fans out in the universe somewhere will have something to say if Adam’s #s don’t come in high. *shrug*

Kirsten
11/18/2009 at 7:16 pm
LLWD went up on the Hot 100:

70 KRIS ALLEN LIVE LIKE WE’RE DYING (lw 92)

That’s great for Kris. They are playing him more and more on my local radio station. I heard LLWD during the nightly drive time yesterday, so more spins plus better times!

How much does artists usually sell on Amazon? I noticed that Adam is at #6 again with Rob pointing up. I have seen some people say it does not account for much but then, I have also seen some people say that itunes sales don’t account for much. For example, Adam was at #1 on itunes for his S8 album for a little while (irrc) but according to the link above by Brian, it only amounted to 16,000 sold. Does anyone have a better recollection?

On Itunes, FYE the single is now at #49, which is not high, of course, but higher than it’s been, as I recall. How the heck is that happening with so little radio play or, really, anything else? I mean, I like it, but I don’t get it. ‘ ¦.

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation, and bought copies they felt he might be losing from the controversy. At number #49 that really is not that many singles being sold, so it could just be 1,000 of the previously mentioned fans.

maturin
11/18/2009 at 6:46 pm
Starr
Can someone please explain to me how exactly people come up with these figures? I’m terribly new to all this and I just wanna figure out how someone could estimate these things, especially in such a tricky environment these days where we’re in a recession, and not a lot of people buy albums anymore, just singles.

If you’re talking about the HDD estimates of album sales . . . HDD creates their estimates based on data they’re getting from actual retailers.

Not critics, entertainment writers, or labels, all of whom are influenced by whom they want to sell. But just the various merchants who really sell records, and don’t care whose it is, as long as it sells. Their estimates are sometimes wrong, but often very, very close.

But if the album was just released yesterday, how did they get the numbers from retailers so quickly? I know I was at three different stores yesterday and all of them were out of Kris’s album. One Wal-Mart, one Target and one Best Buy.

Adam’s had twice as many chances as Kris to have a HIT SONG’ ¦.and he hasn’t delivered yet. (no bo, want, TFM and FYE vs no bo, LLWD).

uh, what? Are you for real? Since when NOBO and Want are Adam’s singles? Hell, even TFM wasn’t a single.

Adam’s had twice as many chances as Kris to have a HIT SONG’ ¦.and he hasn’t delivered yet. (no bo, want, TFM and FYE vs no bo, LLWD).

You’re seriously not counting WANT and NOBO for Adam are you? WANT was blackballed by Adam’s fans as it was a ripoff and NOBO was Kris’s cornation song.

TFM and FYE have sold ok considering they have had little if no radio promotion.

Kris sold I believe more than 200,000 copies of NOBO? That’s not anything to sneeze at, but as far as cornation songs, it’s only so so.

It think S8 is just struggling, but it’s not because Kris and Adam aren’t talented. Other factors are at play, and I think we are all scratching our heads as to what it is.

For example, Adam was at #1 on itunes for his S8 album for a little while (irrc) but according to the link above by Brian, it only amounted to 16,000 sold. Does anyone have a better recollection?

I don’t believe Adam’s Season 8 collection ever got to #1 on Itunes. That would have been big news on this blog. Kris’s “No Boundaries” got to #1 on the overall singles chart though. Adam never reached #1 on the overall charts except for his music videos. At one point, he had like 16 of the Top 25 in videos with the Kiss/Adam performance being #1 for at least a couple of days.

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation, and bought copies they felt he might be losing from the controversy. At number #49 that really is not that many singles being sold, so it could just be 1,000 of the previously mentioned fans.

Interesting. And kind of unfortunate, to me… Am I hallucinating or are there only so many copies that actually count if they’re bought by the same person? Does that ring a bell as either true or false with anybody, especially with the anybodies who know a lot about the numbers?

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation, and bought copies they felt he might be losing from the controversy. At number #49 that really is not that many singles being sold, so it could just be 1,000 of the previously mentioned fans.

I was/am pretty pissed about the Out situation & read the threads, but I only recall one person saying this.

Just a thought, but is it not possible that Kris and Adam fans this year are album buyers who plan to buy the actual CD at an actual store like Walmart /Target. I know that before this year I never ordered from Itunes or pre-ordered an album. I am not going to get nervous until I see what the actual numbers are from the first week of album sales. I am new at this but that is my story until I SEE the first week sales for both Kris and Adam:)

Didn’t do much for poor Ruben.

Poor Ruben still managed 4 cds and working on a 5th, recently ended a cross country tour of Ain’t Misbehavin’ and just ended a tour with David Foster, add to that a few radio hits. Still performing after 7 years in the business. Yup, poor Ruben indeed.

It’s such good sport to throw someone under the bus when your idol is underperforming. Kris might hope to have a similar career to Ruben. At least he can say he’s had a few number 1′s and a platinum album.

Am I hallucinating or are there only so many copies that actually count if they’re bought by the same person? Does that ring a bell as either true or false with anybody, especially with the anybodies who know a lot about the numbers?

Yes, I think you can only have one purchase count on Itunes, but people get around that by “gifting” it to friends and family, and so you can “gift” as many copies as you want and have them all count.

Crayonas
11/18/2009 at 7:21 pm
Adam’s had twice as many chances as Kris to have a HIT SONG’ ¦.and he hasn’t delivered yet. (no bo, want, TFM and FYE vs no bo, LLWD).

uh, what? Are you for real? Since when NOBO and Want are Adam’s singles? Hell, even TFM wasn’t a single.

I think was have some folks stirring the pot tonight. LOL

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation

First time I read about such thing and I go to many AI/Adam boards and communities. lol Well, I don’t go to AO, maybe you go there then.

Anyone have any answers for amazon numbers?

I was/am pretty pissed about the Out situation & read the threads, but I only recall one person saying this.

Maybe he or she has 1000 friends, lol. …

If the music industry can’t successfully break artists coming off a mega-popular show like Idol, I don’t think it has anything to do with the show, but everything to do with the state of the industry. Idol contestants enjoy huge advantages like exposure and a fanbase that no other new artists can possibly hope for, even if the show loses a couple million viewers per year off of the S5 peak. Until the music industry figures out how to combate pirating, they will make neglible amounts of money on domestic CD sales and will have to view music as loss leaders for touring, merchandising, overseas sales and other tangential revenue sources.

RCA and Arista. RCA dropped Bo Bice despite selling 750,000 CD’s. Arista dropped Taylor as well for not selling platinum. Jive has shown they’re more patient especially considering how slow moving Jordin’s sales always were. I don’t know if Jive has a limit though tbh. Kris really, really needs a huge radio hit otherwise he may even struggle to sell what Archie has sold. RCA dropped Clay recently but he sold, what like 4 million CD’s over the course of 4 years? IMO they were patient with him because he had a good previous track record with sales.

Well to be fair, those were different years, so those people were judged against how the overall market was doing at the time. Also Taylor, Blake and Bo followed sales patterns that generally indicate NO expansion outside a core fanbase (selling for a couple of weeks, dropping like a rock) and neither had a big hit single to give their labels any indication they be viable on the radio the next go around. Taylor had a successful tour, but that was not enough.

Archie did have a hit single, strong album sales for runner up, and evidence that he had penetrated the teen market outside of Idol fans. Jordin may not have started well, but she never fell out the BB200 and her singles always kept selling. So while Jive is patient, those 2 did give their labels more to work with than the others mentioned IMO.

Could it be the Itunes New Music Email that went out today that featured Kris/Allison/Adam?? Could it be the OUT controversy that’s appeared in the media reminded people that Adam had a single out?? The USA Today story?? The music video coverage??

All those things. Plus a massive banner on iTunes advertising Adam’s CD, today. There was one for John Mayer as well.

70 KRIS ALLEN LIVE LIKE WE’RE DYING (lw 92)

That’s a nice jump! BTW, LLWD is selling on iTunes now from 3 sources (original single, and both albums). People are downloading from the links at all 3 locations, so here’s how the single looks now (only showing top 2):

LLWD Overall:

#45 & #86

On pop:

#24 & #39

Why? Is RCA notorious for dropping artists with low sales?

I may not be remembering right, but as I recall they have been pretty ruthless when it comes to dropping Idols that underperform sales-wise. Jive has shown a lot of patience with Jordin and David, so as a fan, I’m just grateful that Kris will more than likely get another chance. At least more of a chance at another album than I think he would have at RCA.

Well, MJ, thanks for the slightly better news with the sales update. Hopefully they continue to update it throughout the week!

On Itunes, FYE the single is now at #49, which is not high, of course, but higher than it’s been, as I recall. How the heck is that happening with so little radio play or, really, anything else? I mean, I like it, but I don’t get it

It’s probably due to Idol Siamese Effect. People were reminded about Adam when they downloaded Kris’ album/single. Purchasers of Idol music tend to buy from other idols as well (you can see this in the “also bought…” in Itunes).

Hey that’s great news about HDD revising Kris’s prediction up to 85-90k! Thanks for the update.

Maybe they should both resort to QVC! SuBo is doing well there!

LOL, I have to laugh at the fact that anytime Adam moves up in the charts, the usual suspects claim it’s from fans overbuying.

Me too, I do own up for ordering two, one from Amazon(I want one hard copy), and the deluxe I-tune copy for my I-pod, but I don’t go running to the store for more when the #s are not good, and I am a hard core Adam’s fan!

Every Idol fan base has their crazy fans…every Idol has certifiably bat-shit crazy fans. Nobody is special here. Some may have more and some fan bases may be more vocal. But there’s not one Idol who is immune to the phenomena (especially if the Idol happens to be male).

SuBo also has commercials on BBC-America. I was watching Gordon Ramsay yesterday morning and she had at least 2 commercials in the hour-long show. They are marketing the crap out of her.

I think there are a myriad of reasons for the (anticipatory) low sales this year. The economy is certainly one. The downloading of music has been eroding sales in increasing numbers. For me, another reason is the way they ran Idol this year with giving us 9 choices for top 13 (and pretty much 25 went away with only one performance). Then they added 4 on their own. That stupid move, coupled with the Judges’ Save, made me not want to get invested at all…oh and I really didn’t. I actually didn’t watch one results show this season–unless you count the finale as a results show. It was painful and stupid to watch, and it seemed to me that they used it just to use it.

I’m so very glad they’re going back to top 24. I’m guessing they’ll keep the judges’ save because I’ve not heard otherwise, and I don’t see them giving up that power in which case, I’ll not be watching results shows again this year. Making the bottom person sing again a song that nobody liked and then pronouncing them not good enough again is like adding insult to injury for me.

Hey that’s great news about HDD revising Kris’s prediction up to 85-90k! Thanks for the update.

Yeah, that is GREAT news. If he gets 90K that will be much better. Come on Kris, you can pull out the 100K! LOL

LOL alaadam. Not a bad idea!

Nice to see HDD up the prediction.

Kirsten- are you saying Kris fans don’t buy more than one copy?

No. I’m not saying that. I’m saying that some OTT competitive fans buy multiple copies, but that I don’t think they buy signficantly more if they are given more weeks to pre-order.

As long as I’ve been on this board I’ve said that all fanbases have their crazies and I’ve been an active campaigner against bulk buying campaigns. I’ve also been an advocate of the theory that the number of bulk buyers are insignificant compared to the general public (unless you only move 2K).

I was simply pointing out that the number of months of pre-order are insignificant (in my opinion) because the only people who pre-order are the existing fanbase (it’s not like they are doing much new in that 6 month period to get new fans). The only way it would make a difference is if there were a large number of bulk purchasers chalking up sales every week (and I think those people are few).

None of these theories are new from me, so they are NOT Kris-centric.

I agree about first week sales, but in essence if this is true that this sales number includes all sales from the last 6 months, he has TWO first week sales- the first week sales momentum after the finale and also on the sale date of 11/17.

That only works if all those people buy twice what they would have bought in the first week (the first first week and the second first week). Why would they do that? There are few new fans in the first week. If they were going to be 1 or 2 or 4 or 10 copies, they are going to do it whether they have 1 week to do it or 6 months. They aren’t going to suddenly double their purchases. IMO.

So, yes they are crazies, but not enough weekly buying crazies to make a significant difference. There is a little nutso and then there is certifiable.

You’re seriously not counting WANT and NOBO for Adam are you?

They are songs by adam lamber that are made available for sale so yeah, they count.

I’m not going to lie. Even though I still think the 75-80k number is fairly respectable and nothing to worry about, it did give me a bit of a thrill to see the numbers revised upward.

claiming a deliberate plan by RCA to sell poorly because ‘they don’t care about singles’ ,

Actually, I saw many Kris fans arguing this exact same thing about Jive and LLWD as well. ….

I don’t think you get too far saying that any one fanbase makes more excuses than others. Having watched a lot of them over the years, I think every fanbase looks very hard for reasons when their’ guys don’t do as well as hoped — and the reasons folks come up with tend to be pretty similar, varying only as particular circmstances do.

Am I hallucinating or are there only so many copies that actually count if they’re bought by the same person? Does that ring a bell as either true or false with anybody, especially with the anybodies who know a lot about the numbers?

Fred over at Billboard addressed this issue. He mentioned something around 8 will count (even on iTunes). Buy much more than that and your purchases won’t count (but smart bulk buyers will simply buy in separate weeks or use two credit cards! Gah).

I wonder what made them update the numbers by 10,000. Did they get some new info this afternoon or something? I seriously don’t know how all this works.

Actually, I saw many Kris fans arguing this exact same thing about Jive and LLWD as well.

Yeah, they did, and that was lame of them too. You know whose fans don’t have to make excuses, Carrie fans. We don’t need to because she sells well.

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation, and bought copies they felt he might be losing from the controversy

I scanned the end of that thread last night and I saw ONE PERSON mentioned buying ONE EXTRA copy of Adam’s CD to make up for the Out fiasco…. Doubt that would equal thousands of copies being sold.

OK, honestly here coming from a person who never cared for Idol before season 8, I genuinely believe Kris, Adam and Allison are tremendously talented; even more talented than previous Idols (and Idol winners). This is just my honest opinion. You’re all welcome to disagree. So I am just really disappointed that despite the amazing talents that have emerged from this season, that people think that sales are reflective of that talent. Yes, if you sell a shitload of albums, you’re successful, but half the stuff that is doing well on the radio and on the iTunes chart is stuff that is just absolutely ridiculous (don’t get me started on that Evacuate the Dancefloor song, GOD ALMIGHTY).

I genuinely believe all three of these guys SHOULD be successful because the music they have produced could not be any more different, but at the same time they are the most radio-friendly, interesting songs that I’ve heard Idols produce. Just because they have low sales numbers DOES NOT diminish their talent. Heck, Leona Lewis had one of the biggest songs of last year and she’s even lower on the expected album sales than Kris is! I just wish people would stop jeering and saying “Oh, I totally called it, I am a fan of so-and-so and thought Kris would never be successful, look at his initial CD sales!” It just really irks me. I would never be happy when someone I think is talented isn’t doing well on the market. The best indie bands produce better music the OneRepublic and The Fray and yet they do not get the same sales pressure than these Idols, and their labels stand by them.

I’m just really sick of the gloom and doom. Kris is a sweetheart and has tremendous talent and he has always said that it didn’t matter to him if he made a ton of money or whatnot as long as people love his music. I hope Jive gives him that support.

Cool that the HDD prediction is now up to 85-90k for Kris! Go Kris, you can reach 100K for this week

LOL, I have to laugh at the fact that anytime Adam moves up in the charts, the usual suspects claim it’s from fans overbuying. Could it be the Itunes New Music Email that went out today that featured Kris/Allison/Adam??

I loved my i-Tunes e-mail today with Adam big and bold and right on top! That e-mail should help all the Idols, even Brooke, Kat, and Blake were on it.

Well those revised numbers are actually much better than I thought, which I thought would be about the first numbers.

Oh and I do NOT expect that Adam will be much higher than the originally projected numbers. Yes, that would suck for Adam, but given the continuing weakness in his single sales and not having a single that is getting airplay leading into his album sales…not a great situation.

So I was fine with Kris’s first numbers, though I am of course MUCH happier with revised and higher numbers. Yay!

Fred over at Billboard addressed this issue. He mentioned something around 8 will count (even on iTunes). Buy much more than that and your purchases won’t count (but smart bulk buyers will simply buy in separate weeks or use two credit cards! Gah).

Thanks, Kirsten.

Wait, revised? What? THIS IS GREAT! Is there a chance we will get more revised numbers in the next few days?

Nice jump. I think Kris breaks 100k.

I’ve been wondering whether the charting position and sales figures take into account how many people pre-bought the album through the iTunes pass. I paid for my Kris Allen CD in May or June, but I still want him to get credit for that sale now! I hope I don’t have to buy it again just for it to be counted.

They are songs by adam lamber that are made available for sale so yeah, they count.

uh, not really. Or you’ll have to count a bunch of other songs too. But if it makes you sleep better at night, go for it!

Just because they have low sales numbers DOES NOT diminish their talent

I don’t think people are saying that, but just being talented is no guarantee of success. Getting dropped by their labels didn’t make Ruben, Clay, Diana, Bo, Katherine, Taylor, or Blake any less talented.

They are songs by adam lamber that are made available for sale so yeah, they count.

Wow, I mean just seriously, wow….

Do you even know the history of “Want”? That Adam asked his fans to NOT buy that song?

HDD usually makes another prediction on the weekend, right?

I really want Kris to at least break 100K. Come on, Kris!

Not only that, he put Kris above Taylor (I think Taylor and Ruben?). Not exactly glowing from him.

In that exchange between Simon and Ryan, they put Kris above Taylor, but below Ruben. They clearly reinfored the “below Ruben” part.

these numbers seem A LOT more reasonable.I would say they’re pretty good….

thats great

I bought 3 copies of DCTR (and one is still unopened in its original packaging). The reason was the bonus songs. I had pre-ordered (never will do that again) DCTR in the summer from amazon.com. When the iTunes pre-order came out, there was a bonus track. When the Wal-Mart copy came out there was a bonus track. Can I tell you how much I hate freaking bonus tracks?

I didn’t buy them to inflate sales. I bought them to pay for his music. I’d downloaded enough of his pre-Idol music (per his permission) that wasn’t available to be paid for that it only made sense to me to make up for it. I still hate bonus tracks.

I never gifted his music to unsuspecting friends and family. Unless you know that somebody’s taste in music runs toward the artist you’re gifting, I find it a bit rude to do so. I tend to ask people what they might enjoy as a gift.

Yes, if you sell a shitload of albums, you’re successful, but half the stuff that is doing well on the radio and on the iTunes chart is stuff that is just absolutely ridiculous (don’t get me started on that Evacuate the Dancefloor song, GOD ALMIGHTY).

According to y100 that song is one of Kris’s favorites.

gangreen29
11/18/2009 at 7:42 pm
Just because they have low sales numbers DOES NOT diminish their talent

I don’t think people are saying that, but just being talented is no guarantee of success. Getting dropped by their labels didn’t make Ruben, Clay, Diana, Bo, Katherine, Taylor, or Blake any less talented.

Not everyone is saying it here, of course, I was just referring to the select few people who come on the post just to jeer and say this is reflective that Kris should never have won, that Simon was right, blah blah blah. I totally agree with you: sometimes talent does not equal success. We see that everyday, and as I mentioned, unsigned bands sometimes have more talent than the ones that are on the charts and the radio right now, so these things are definitely not reflective of each other. I guess I’m just idealistic and I think that when someone produces a good record that they deserve, if not commercial success, then at least some recognition from the media that they are performing well and to standards. With Kris, I feel like the media pretty much doesn’t want him to succeed, and so they downplay his album ten times more than they do for regular artists.

cilady
11/18/2009 at 7:50 pm
Yes, if you sell a shitload of albums, you’re successful, but half the stuff that is doing well on the radio and on the iTunes chart is stuff that is just absolutely ridiculous (don’t get me started on that Evacuate the Dancefloor song, GOD ALMIGHTY).

According to y100 that song is one of Kris’s favorites.

Are you serious?! If that is true…-1 cool points from you, Kristopher. *shakes head*

Reminder: Refering to the “usual suspects” = your post is deleted. Actually, from this point forward, it will put you in moderation.

HDD usually makes another prediction on the weekend, right?

I really want Kris to at least break 100K. Come on, Kris!

Yeah, they revise again on Friday. Every once in a while they will update on Saturday too.

I think the Vh1 appearance will give Kris a bump too, that plays right to his target audience.

I wish the Ellen performance was airing this week. That could help as well.

mj
11/18/2009 at 7:52 pm
Reminder: Refering to the ‘usual suspects’  = your post is deleted. Actually, from this point forward, it will put you in moderation.

Sorry, what does this mean, mj?

With Kris, I feel like the media pretty much doesn’t want him to succeed, and so they downplay his album ten times more than they do for regular artists.

I agree with this. I like Kris’s album, and now I almost wish he hadn’t won, especially in a year that was so politically charged with the effects of Danny and Adam. Kris is not going to be burning up the charts, but he makes lovely music and I think he has a long career ahead of him, just eventually with a more indie label and the Idol fracas behind him.

I just want to weigh in on the argument I’ve seen expressed here and in other places that Kris is a “slow grower” whose sales will continue to grow, while Adam is more of a Taylor Hicks type. I honestly have no idea how these characterizations have taken hold or perpetuated.

First of all, neither artist is anything like Taylor Hicks. He was purely a gimmick, whose music had zero relevance in pop music because it was so outdated. Adam’s music fits directly into the whole Lady Gaga/Muse/Pink etc musical landscape, and is a media darling. It’s not even worth it to list all the reasons why comparing Taylor and Adam is so futile.

On the argument that Kris is a “slow grower,” I’m not really sure where that is coming from, either. Well, I am guessing it is coming from Idol, where he supposedly “came out of nowhere,” although I predicted in top 10 week that I was positive he would win. I think it is important to realize that the things that make you successful on American Idol and the things that make you successful in real life are not the same. They key to making it far on American Idol is to not offend the fans of other contestants, so you pick up their votes when they are voted out. That, in my opinion, was the main reason that Kris kept getting through. He is the definition of inoffensive: a cute guy who plays pleasant music. In the music scene, the fact that you are inoffensive is not what sustains sales. So in my opinion, his trajectory on Idol and his trajectory in the real world really can’t be compared.

That being said, I do think that Kris can have some success, although I think it will mainly be from his singles. Album sales typically don’t go up that much from a single’s success, the single’s success does. Look at Jordin Sparks. I think it’s definitely possible that he can have hit singles from his album, but I don’t think the album as a whole will do incredible. Usually an artist needs either a large fan base or to ALREADY have a radio hit in order to see really big album sales. I could be completely wrong and don’t work in the field, this is just my opinion.

Jesus, that got SUPER long. Sorry!!

Dang, I can’t believe how bad Paul McCartney, One Republic, and Janet Jackson are doing. Their sales predictions are abysmal. Shouldn’t they all be selling a million copies on first day out?

Yeah, I know. They are unknowns and this should be expected. I hope their labels let them have a few weeks before deciding to drop them or people calling them utter failures.

Sometimes the dedicated fan base doesn’t pre-order a couple of copies of an album every week. Sometimes, they are sane.

How is this even possible? Wasn’t the limit a person could buy on Amazon set at 3? I think “Kris Allen” had no limits-so insane fans could have ordered 100 each if they wanted to. ITunes has limits also. Sure, you can gift, but so can Kris’ fans. Please? Do people just make stuff up when their favorite isn’t doing so well?
I’m going to purchase my FYE cd at Walmart or Target. I have not prordered. I must be sane.

What I wonder is were the iTunes Passes really that low or are the presales(over the last 4 weeks) and the sales on Tuesday that low? Maybe alot of people didn’t buy the iTunes pass, but going on from what I heard around here (during the tour) I would have thought there would have been a decent amount of Passes sold.

Jam28: Thank you for your post! It was realistic, yet wasn’t biased. Wow! Thank you!

Yeah. I think both Davids will see drop offs for round 2 (in album sales anyway ‘“ unless someone pulls a Breakaway)

I am one of the optimistic ones who thinks David Cook will do better with his second album. I had more or less discounted his first post-Idol album early on as more of an Idol album than a David Cook album, and that the real David Cook album will be his second one. The question will then be – is the real David Cook album what the public will want to buy?

That is something of course we won’t know until the second album drops, but there are hopeful signs – David Cook knows very well that the second album is going to be a challenge sales-wise, but he is combative, and he is interest to know what sells. He will be experimenting with new sounds, and he will (I hope) come out with something fresh and different, and that’s what will sell his next album.

There are elements in his current album that are worth exploring and expanding further, but his next album do need to be different. If he comes out with exactly the same thing as the current one, sales will almost certainly drop, and I don’t think I will be a fan for much longer. I’m more of a fan of what he has the potential to do, rather than what he has done in his current album. I am optimistic that he will fulfill his potential, and trust him that he sees things as a progression, looking forward, and not backward to the stuff he has done before like his current album or Analog Heart.

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation, and bought copies they felt he might be losing from the controversy

I scanned the end of that thread last night and I saw ONE PERSON mentioned buying ONE EXTRA copy of Adam’s CD to make up for the Out fiasco’ ¦. Doubt that would equal thousands of copies being sold.

LOL. That was probably me. And you know I hesitated even posting that comment because I’m well aware of the whole Claymate/Taylor history and people shipping cds to servicemen, yada, yada. Didn’t want to be misunderstood, deliberately or otherwise, because I’m really not a big proponent of gifting.

And, it was just a couple of cds, so, no, I don’t think I’m single-handedly responsible for causing a bump on iTunes, lol. Actually, I’m focusing my efforts more on introducing friends and acquaintences to the music of Adam Lambert, not so much by gifting them his album, but by talking about his music, playing samples of what’s been posted so far and generally putting him on their radar screen so they might consider giving him a more complete listen. Not trying to give anyone a hard sell, just passing along a tip, just as I would if I had read a good book or eaten in a great restaurant. It’s my small (non-monetary) way of helping his career prosper.

I totally disagree that Kris is a single seller versus an album seller. Based on the cohesiveness of the debut even with so many different producers/co-writers/writers, I think fans of one of his songs are likely to become fans of a lot of his songs. I do think Kris has a lot of potential to break out of the AI confines. I think Adam will probably have more singles success than Kris, but I don’t think he will have more albums sales in the long run. Just my opinion though.

Hummm, I thought this was about Kris Allen. I wouldn’t worry about debut album sales. I think Jordan Sparks is right up there with the best of them in top hits and overall sales.

Dang, I can’t believe how bad Paul McCartney, One Republic, and Janet Jackson are doing. Their sales predictions are abysmal. Shouldn’t they all be selling a million copies on first day out?

Yeah, I know. They are unknowns and this should be expected. I hope their labels let them have a few weeks before deciding to drop them or people calling them utter failures.

Paul McCartney is releasing a live DVD/CD compilation, not comparable, and is actually sold out on the Best Buy website. Janet Jackson’s is her 2nd greatest hits CD, and yes it is performing dismally. She has had a massive downward spiral in her last few CDs, I doubt we will see another major release from her. One Republic also has dismal numbers, if they don’t get a big hit off this album I can’t see them getting another major label release, even with Tedder’s pull. I don’t think people understand how much money goes into the production and promotion of a major label album. If you aren’t even breaking even, you aren’t going to get more chances.

Glad to see that HDD updated Kris’s numbers. That initial estimate was quite concerning: I think that his music is radio-friendly, as we’ve seen, but I don’t see him as likely to have a No Air type radio success—something that both sells a lot of copies of the single and helps to sustain sales of the album.

Re: HDD: Retailers covering 80% of the market report their Soundscan numbers to HDD. Of particular import to Idol contestants, the retailers who report to Soundscan include Wal-Mart, Target, and itunes. They do not include Amazon. HDD then applies formulae to come up with (1) one-day predictions, (2) predictions on Friday of the weekend, and (3) an estimate that comes out on Tuesdays after the sales week ends. Generally, HDD tends to come pretty close, but occasionally it is off by a non-trivial amount.

I really hope Kris will make the 100K mark though HDD usually over-estimates the sales figure slightly. That being said, even if he does not have a great first week sales, I think his album has the potential for longevity in sales. His LLWD single seems to be gaining new fans from the increasing trend in sales even after eight weeks of release. Hope that these new fans will be interested enough to pick up his album.

That, in my opinion, was the main reason that Kris kept getting through. He is the definition of inoffensive: a cute guy who plays pleasant music. In the music scene, the fact that you are inoffensive is not what sustains sales. So in my opinion, his trajectory on Idol and his trajectory in the

Actually one of the reasons I think Kris advanced was because he was innovative. He kept topping himself, kept surprising with the quality of his perfomances. Also, many people have described how Kris, then and now, connects. He had (and has) the ability to connect to an audience with humor, or emotion, and to make an emtional connection with any song he chooses to sing. It’s a rare gift. Of course, YMMV.

At any rate, I know I never voted for him because he was “innoffensive.”

I can’t really imagine anyone voting for any contestant on American Idol because he or she was inoffensive, cute, or playing “pleasant” music (was there something unpleasant about Adam’s music? Or Danny’s? Or Anoop’s?).

Usually people don’t waste time voting for anyone unless they think that person is damn good, and they want to see that person win because he or she has a great deal of talent. I don’t know if you ever vored for Kris but I did, and the reasons you suggest don’t describe my motivations at all.

The revised number is a lot more like what I expected. Honestly was expecting approximately 100K so the first number seemed too far off to me. The revised umber is closer to expected. IMO

I am one of the optimistic ones who thinks David Cook will do better with his second album. I had more or less discounted his first post-Idol album early on as more of an Idol album than a David Cook album, and that the real David Cook album will be his second one.

I hope you are right. ITA about the second record being better than the first, and I am hopeful that it will find a warm reception at HAC (which has turned into his core format), but in whatever other formats are appropriate for his artistic choices next time around. Still I feel like it is only prudent to expect the 2nd record drop off since it has happened to everyone except Kelly. So I’m going to brace for it now, remain confident he’ll do enough to get to album number 3, and leave myself room to be pleasantly surprised if he blows the F up. LOL

Anyway, back to Kris. I just want Kris to break 100K or come damn close (like 90 and up) and I want him to be gold or again damn close by the end of the christmas run. That’s my wish for Mr. Allen.

His career is not over yet. The revised number is a lot better.

though HDD usually over-estimates the sales figure slightly.

How do you know this?

First of all, neither artist is anything like Taylor Hicks. He was purely a gimmick, whose music had zero relevance in pop music because it was so outdated.

For the record, Taylor actually had some very nice music that he put out BEFORE American Idol got ahold of him. Taylor could have been relevant, but his songs on his post AI cd were junk, and from there he totally lost his momentum. Taylor is very talented, though.

TwigLA
11/18/2009 at 8:04 pm
Dang, I can’t believe how bad Paul McCartney, One Republic, and Janet Jackson are doing. Their sales predictions are abysmal. Shouldn’t they all be selling a million copies on first day out?

Yeah, I know. They are unknowns and this should be expected. I hope their labels let them have a few weeks before deciding to drop them or people calling them utter failures.

TwigLA, you know I love you, right? hahahaha

FolkFan
11/18/2009 at 8:20 pm
Glad to see that HDD updated Kris’s numbers. That initial estimate was quite concerning: I think that his music is radio-friendly, as we’ve seen, but I don’t see him as likely to have a No Air type radio success’”something that both sells a lot of copies of the single and helps to sustain sales of the album.

Re: HDD: Retailers covering 80% of the market report their Soundscan numbers to HDD. Of particular import to Idol contestants, the retailers who report to Soundscan include Wal-Mart, Target, and itunes. They do not include Amazon. HDD then applies formulae to come up with (1) one-day predictions, (2) predictions on Friday of the weekend, and (3) an estimate that comes out on Tuesdays after the sales week ends. Generally, HDD tends to come pretty close, but occasionally it is off by a non-trivial amount.

Thanks for this info! Very helpful! Kris has been climbing up the Amazon chart so I hope Amazon numbers come into play for his sales soon. I had bought a CD off Amazon before I found out there was a bonus track from Wal-Mart, so I am sure there are people like me who pre-ordered through Amazon but then got the bonus track CD from Wal Mart as well.

I also wanted to add that the reason Kris won is not simply because he was inoffensive (I do believe there is some hint of this in play in the voting). Kris’s fanbase grew with every performance NOT because he was inoffensive but because he was a lot of people’s second favorite. My cousin LOVED Megan Joy, and liked Kris, so she split votes for both of them. When Megan Joy got cut she started voting for Kris. This is true for a lot of people, and I think this is one of the reasons why he won. Another reason is because Kris built steady momentum. Week by week he was growing and America likes to reward an artist’s growth in that way. Also, Kris peaked at JUST the right time. While Adam was performing at a consistent level all throughout, save for one or two misses that were awesome compared to the least favorite performances of that certain week, Kris was topping himself each time. My boyfriend never voted for Idol before, just like me, but when he saw Kris perform “Heartless” he actually picked up the phone and threw him a couple of votes (out of his own accord, without my coaxing LOL). Kris really turned a lot of heads during Rat Pack week, even though Simon panned his performance. I know a lot of older Idol-watchers who thought Kris’s version of “The Way You Look Tonight” was the best version they had ever heard. I believe it’s better than Rod Stewart’s version. And “Heartless” was pretty much Kris’s crowning glory. I don’t know anyone who didn’t think that performance was good.

So yeah, there are many reasons why Kris won, and it can’t just be boiled down to one. It’s weird that we’re talking about why he won again, because I would think people would understand it by now.

Isn’t it amazing what the number 10,000 can do?

HDD: Retailers covering 80% of the market report their Soundscan numbers to HDD. Of particular import to Idol contestants, the retailers who report to Soundscan include Wal-Mart, Target, and itunes. They do not include Amazon.

This could hurt Adam in the predictions then if the reports are correct about his Amazon sales.

Usually people don’t waste time voting for anyone unless they think that person is damn good, and they want to see that person win because he or she has a great deal of talent. I don’t know if you ever vored for Kris but I did, and the reasons you suggest don’t describe my motivations at all.

I respectfully disagree. I think that disliking a candidate is just a large a motivator to vote for someone than liking someone, especially for the fans of the show that get so invested in the outcome. I know that I HATED Danny, LOVED Adam, and liked/was indifferent to Kris. Had Adam gotten voted out, I would have voted for Kris because I hated Danny. That is how idol works. I think Kris is the type that a lot of people LIKE, but maybe don’t feel too passionately about. I don’t think this is a controversial or even unpopular opinion.

I should also stress that I have a few of Kris’s idol recordings and am actually listening to his CD now. I enjoy his music- it’s very listenable, albeit a little “easy listening” for my taste. He’s the type of artist I like enough to download but not actually pay for. Just giving my honest thoughts. I usually lurk around Idol sites and I’ve found all the passive aggressiveness (well not even passive anymore) from both sides to be troubling.

The whole Idol comparison game doesn’t really work with Kris and Adam. I don’t think Kris particularly wants to have the kind of scrutiny and pressure that Adam is dealing with right now and is perfectly happy to be able to live his life and make music.

Not a huge Kris Allen fan but do like some of his stuff. I’ve heard LLWD three times on the radio today. He was interviewed on WPLJ (NYC) this morning. Not sure why people are saying his single is not getting played. Forgetting about pre-orders and passes, it’s only been a couple of days since the album actually dropped. Let’s all remember that not everyone follows the numbers and these blogs like hawks.

What I wonder is were the iTunes Passes really that low or are the presales(over the last 4 weeks) and the sales on Tuesday that low? Maybe alot of people didn’t buy the iTunes pass, but going on from what I heard around here (during the tour) I would have thought there would have been a decent amount of Passes sold.

What’s sad to me is that there was no reason to buy the Itunes pass. The selling point seemed to be the videos, which were the real extra. As soon as someone with an Itunes Pass got a video download it was on youtube within 15 minutes for everyone to see. Takes away from the artist and the sales. Same with downloads. Right when Kris’s album started streaming people were posting download links. The avid Kris fans will buy, but those that are on the fence won’t. I get that it happens to all artists and has happened in the past to the other Idols. It wasn’t right then and it’s not right now.

This could hurt Adam in the predictions then if the reports are correct about his Amazon sales.

HDD does have a formula for guessing what the Amazon sales are and adding them into their projections.

I’m just really sick of the gloom and doom.

You and me both! I believe it is the nature of the never ending game of ‘let’s compare idols’ -from every season in every possible way, even if we have to make things up.
Tiring-isn’t it?

You do understand the gloom and doom comes from actual disappointing results, right? If season 8 was selling well, you would see some people being anxious, but generally feelings would be more positive. Actually succeeding after idol is the fastest way of shutting up all the doom and gloom. People were nasty about Carrie after her season, but selling millions of albums quiets the haters.

IDF is reporting that FYE is continuing to move up tonight.

FYE Deluxe Album: #9 Pop
FYE Deluxe Album: #22 Overall

gangreen29
11/18/2009 at 8:42 pm

People were nasty about Carrie after her season, but selling millions of albums quiets the haters.

Yeah, and I bet winning a Grammy or two does even more to shut them up LOL

Anyway, back to Kris. I just want Kris to break 100K or come damn close (like 90 and up) and I want him to be gold or again damn close by the end of the christmas run. That’s my wish for Mr. Allen.

I don’t think Kris will get higher than the current estimate, if anything, it will likely be lower. But I do think his album will go gold, but probably not by Christmas (i think he’d be around 350-400K by the end of the year), but another six months and a couple more singles later. I want him to beat Taylor Hicks’ number but it looks to be a tall order.

ETA – I don’t think Amazon will matter much in the calculation. Remember when David Cook’s Analog Heart hit number 1? Turned out to be only around 1 thousand units sold.

Usually people don’t waste time voting for anyone unless they think that person is damn good, and they want to see that person win because he or she has a great deal of talent. I don’t know if you ever vored for Kris but I did, and the reasons you suggest don’t describe my motivations at all.

deleted

If they do the right thing and release “Alright With Me” as a single, Krissie will do just fine. That song is fabulous. Resistance will be futile.

How is this even possible? Wasn’t the limit a person could buy on Amazon set at 3? I think ‘Kris Allen’  had no limits-so insane fans could have ordered 100 each if they wanted to. ITunes has limits also. Sure, you can gift, but so can Kris’ fans. Please? Do people just make stuff up when their favorite isn’t doing so well?

Did you bother to read the long post that I posted explaining this? In no way do I make an excuse for Kris’s numbers. I simply explained that I don’t think anybody has that many insane over infested fans that would behave in that manner (buying multiple albums every week for every week the album was available for pre-order) so I don’t think the length of the pre-order matters (just that there is one). Sure, some fans might buy a couple of copies, but buying multiple copies every week for the six months is a bit unbalanced, no? Are you saying it’s not?

Why are you pointing out that Amazon has a limit, but iTunes does not? How is this even relevant to the point your making? Who cares if it has a limit if you point out that iTunes does not? Kris was on both. I’m totally confused by that point. Who said anything about Amazon? Who said Kris fans couldn’t gift things?

I’m not sure what the glowing predictions of good first week sales for Adam are based on. His sales and radio play are pretty dismal so far, and, historically, runner ups are way more likely to flop than winners. I haven’t seen any hard #s yet that make me think Adam will do more than approximately equal to Kris. Maybe the AMA performance will boost him, maybe not. Maybe Kris will have better numbers next week because of Black Friday, and the AMAs, and their sales could end up being the same or really different if you total up 2 weeks worth. All we can say right now, though, is that Adam’s sales have not lived up to his hype, and 5 out of 7 runner ups have been dropped by their label after their first album, while only 1 winner has. I don’t think Adam’s success is a sure thing by any means. Not that Kris’s is either, but Jive is known for being patient and frugal, while RCA is not. Adam most likely needs to sell more than Kris to keep his record label to begin with.

My head is spinning from this, but I think what we know at the moment and are Kris’ sales numbers.

wjmtv
11/18/2009 at 8:56 pm
If they do the right thing and release ‘Alright With Me’  as a single, Krissie will do just fine. That song is fabulous. Resistance will be futile.

I know, everyone loves that song. I think it will do much better though if it was released during the summer. People will snatch it up like candy if it is released at just the right time. I think that Kris should release one of the more radio-friendly singles “Before We Come Undone” or “Can’t Stay Away”, so he garners more commercial appeal, gets more radio plays, does well on Billboard, more name recognition, etc. Later on he can release the more creative songs like “Is It Over” and “Alright With Me”.

anovich
11/18/2009 at 7:01 pm
I’m dreading next week when Adam fans try to rub it in if he does significantly better. I just think Adam is more likely to be a similar story to Taylor Hicks while Kris has always been the slow grower, YM

I guess in an ideal world that statement would not bug me, but it does, many Adam fans came on the Kris thread yesterday to congratulate him, but, whatever. The revised estimate is moving in the right direction…

I respectfully disagree. I think that disliking a candidate is just a large a motivator to vote for someone than liking someone, especially for the fans of the show that get so invested in the outcome. I know that I HATED Danny, LOVED Adam, and liked/was indifferent to Kris. Had Adam gotten voted out, I would have voted for Kris because I hated Danny.

That is one motivation but I think the majority of people who vote do it because they like someone. I wouldn’t waste a second voting against anybody.

I was referring to what you said about knowing since top 10 Kris would win. People don’t vote way back then because someone is inoffensive, or vote for one person because they hate another. He was advancing for a reason and it wasn’t revenge against a hated contestant or because he was cute and pleasant. Megan was cute and pleasant and she didn’t advance. So was Alexis. Whatever. I just never bought the theory you’re putting forward. I mean, is that why David Cook won? Because he was the cutest, least offensive, most pleasant contestant?

My head is spinning from this, but I think what we know at the moment and are Kris’ sales numbers.

What we know is estimated numbers, not actuals.

Additionally, I think what this poster is saying is that Jive overall seems like a more patient label because of their frugality as compared to RCA and additionally the labels seem to stick with the winner more than the runner-up based on history.

What about places like Borders and Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, etc? When do their sales get counted?

gangreen29
11/18/2009 at 7:19 pm
On Itunes, FYE the single is now at #49, which is not high, of course, but higher than it’s been, as I recall. How the heck is that happening with so little radio play or, really, anything else? I mean, I like it, but I don’t get it. ‘ ¦.

I’ve noticed a lot of people have mentioned buying extra copies of Adam’s music because they were so upset about the Out situation, and bought copies they felt he might be losing from the controversy. At number #49 that really is not that many singles being sold, so it could just be 1,000 of the previously mentioned fans.

Would you be willing to provide the link where the Adam fans are buying the extra copies ? I am a fan and have not been included and that just peeves me lol

Crayonas
11/18/2009 at 7:21 pm
Adam’s had twice as many chances as Kris to have a HIT SONG’ ¦.and he hasn’t delivered yet. (no bo, want, TFM and FYE vs no bo, LLWD).

uh, what? Are you for real? Since when NOBO and Want are Adam’s singles? Hell, even TFM wasn’t a single.

^^^THIS^^^

This could hurt Adam in the predictions then if the reports are correct about his Amazon sales.

Hurting in predictions isn’t the same thing as hurting in the pocketbook. Basically, they are guessing what CDs will do. It may be educated guessing, but it’s still guessing. Guesses don’t count. Dollars do.

I have a question; maybe Kirsten can answer? Why was it just Kris’s numbers that were modified by the Hits Daily Double? Did they overlook something the first time around, did they just give the wrong info the first time around? Just curious as to why they needed to modify it right away, if there was some kind of information that they had received that caused the change?

hollygo9
11/18/2009 at 7:33 pm
You’re seriously not counting WANT and NOBO for Adam are you?

They are songs by adam lamber that are made available for sale so yeah, they count.

LOL, I can’t be bothered to go into the whole history lesson here but I’m sure the archives could explain everything…

You do understand the gloom and doom comes from actual disappointing results, right? If season 8 was selling well, you would see some people being anxious, but generally feelings would be more positive

THANK YOU. Go back and look at the sales HDD predictions thread from last year this same week. The reaction was very different. The doom & gloom isnt a typical thing. Even before the predictions came out today I had said the other day I would be upset if he sold less than Jordin’s first week *shrug* It’s hard to control how we feel. Hell I’m still pissed Chris lost season 5 LOL

What’s sad to me is that there was no reason to buy the Itunes pass. The selling point seemed to be the videos, which were the real extra. As soon as someone with an Itunes Pass got a video download it was on youtube within 15 minutes for everyone to see. Takes away from the artist and the sales. Same with downloads. Right when Kris’s album started streaming people were posting download links. The avid Kris fans will buy, but those that are on the fence won’t. I get that it happens to all artists and has happened in the past to the other Idols. It wasn’t right then and it’s not right now.

I completely agree with this. I know the videos from the iTunes pass ending up on You Tube with links posted very visibly annoyed me to no end. Then again I’m one who despises illegal downloading of music.

People were nasty about Carrie after her season, but selling millions of albums quiets the haters.

Yep. Carrie was criticized all through Idol, even afterwards she was accused of having no fanbase, then the prediction was Bo was going to outsell her and become the big star. OOPS!

Since when NOBO and Want are Adam’s singles?

Want wasn’t Adam’s single, but his NoBo was released as a single.

I wouldn’t count Want as a single. No Boundaries, well, to be fair, it didn’t get much performance/publicity from either Kris or Adam, for all that it was a “coronation single” so I’m not really sure if I’d count it or not.

TFM was definitely a single though. It may not have been intended to push the album, but it was released to radio with a great deal of buzz from the fanbase and various people in the industry. It was neither more associated with another performer, like No Boundaries, and it’s not an illegitimate release which Adam didn’t support.

“Does anyone have any more long term sales of idols ‘“ say after one year ‘“ how both singles & albums have done? That to me is a much more logical figure to compare than to theorise about figures that haven’t been confirmed yet!!!!

This might be considered OT, but I’ll post in response to the question. I found estimated figures for Cook. Hopefully others will come forward with additional idol’s stats.

David Cook CD: 1.25+ million
Time of my Life coronation single: 1.3+ million
Light On: 1.0+ million
Come Back to Me (1/2 year): 359K
Permanent (Idol finale performance): 167k”

Thanks so much Wordnerdarchie for these figures – yes it would be good to have the actual figures of the rest for comparison over the whole first year!!

Anyway since coming back on- its great to see that the predictions for Kris’s album have been increased. Really proves my earlier point that until the ACTUAL weekly sales figures come out – the PREDICTIONS are just that !!!

I also am glad that Kris is with Jive as I just want to be able to hear Kris’s music & buy his albums !! All Kris wants to do is record his songs & have people like his music , so he needs to sell enough to do that.
I agree with an earlier poster who says that Jive seems to be treating Kris like a “new artist”, so 85-90K is looking great!!

Why are people bringing Adam up just because Kris’s projected sales are disappointing? One has nothing to do with the other. If Kris does not get at least 119k he will be the least selling Idol winner of all time. Adam selling only 5 albums next week won’t change that. Adam did not win and therefore will not be compared to other winners. Its pointless to do that. Just hope HDD underestimated Kris’s sales.

Just for reference only, I did a little research.

Daughtry, the debut album, sold 303,677 copies its first week which you may think is huge, but his competition for the week, a Mr JayZ’s album sold 708,485 (holy crap). Daughtry went on to sell 6.1 mil copies of his debut album. JayZ’s album sold 2.4 mil copies.
Not comparing Chris Daughtry or his sales numbers to Kris, Adam, Allison or anyone else. Just saying, by this story alone, you can’t judge the future of an album or career by first week sales and that applies to anyone, Justin Beiber included (IDK who that kid is).

Just to add to that, reviews of Daughtry’s first album included these words and phrases “generic”, “too commercial”, “bland”, “It’s bad enough this guy sounds like Creed…but Daughtry’s success sets a dangerous precedent of rewarding losers” “tailor-made for ill-conceived radio formatting” and “FuelNickelStanback”

Please don’t give up on any of these artists just yet. I remember hearing Chris Daughtry bought this big house in Greensboro, NC before the album was released and after reading the reviews I thought, WTH is he thinking -he can’t afford that, this albums gonna tank! Lol, I no longer pay attention to critics and numbers. Guessing Chris could buy several of those big houses now and have at least a little change left over.

I’m a Kris fan, but I wish the best to all of Season 8. I enjoyed this season as much or more than the other 7 and I never thought I would.

Considering the economic situation, you have to factor that in, Kris’s 85-90K would have been higher, probably much higher.

“Daughtry, the debut album, sold 303,677 copies its first week which you may think is huge, but his competition for the week, a Mr JayZ’s album sold 708,485 (holy crap). Daughtry went on to sell 6.1 mil copies of his debut album. JayZ’s album sold 2.4 mil copies.”

Thank you AI_ fan , this is exactly the information that is worthwhile rather than speculating about ‘predictions” only!!
I really believe that long term Kris’s music will gather momentum [ but of course that is "my" perception!!]

Also the comment about Daughtry being too “bland & generic ” have been labelled at Kris too. I’d be thankful if Kris received half of Daughtry’s success.[ It doesn't hurt to have Chris being totally behind Kris either!! Maybe at some stage they can do a concert together?]

I for one will not be giving up on Kris – as long as he has good music to sell – I’ll buy it!

unique28v
11/18/2009 at 9:47 pm
Why are people bringing Adam up just because Kris’s projected sales are disappointing? One has nothing to do with the other. If Kris does not get at least 119k he will be the least selling Idol winner of all time. Adam selling only 5 albums next week won’t change that. Adam did not win and therefore will not be compared to other winners. Its pointless to do that. Just hope HDD underestimated Kris’s sales.

^^THIS^^ but it seems the comparisons are part and parcel of the AI experience from what peeps who have been here for years say.

I guess in an ideal world that statement would not bug me, but it does, many Adam fans came on the Kris thread yesterday to congratulate him, but, whatever. The revised estimate is moving in the right direction’ ¦

Exactly. And wow…just wow.

If they do the right thing and release ‘Alright With Me’  as a single, Krissie will do just fine.

THIS. Let’s remember that both Carrie and Jordan blew up with their second single moreso than their first.

LOL, I can’t be bothered to go into the whole history lesson here but I’m sure the archives could explain everything

Really? so, you think that Adam Lambert fans didn’t buy TFM because it wasn’t ‘an official single’? Or No Bo? Or anything else he’s sang? If people liked it, it would have blown up big regardless of whether it was deemed ‘OFFICIAL’.
GARG! I just got sucked into fan-warring. It’s time for me to stop posting now.

I’m dreading next week when Adam fans try to rub it in if he does significantly better. I just think Adam is more likely to be a similar story to Taylor Hicks while Kris has always been the slow grower, YM

I guess in an ideal world that statement would not bug me, but it does, many Adam fans came on the Kris thread yesterday to congratulate him, but, whatever. The revised estimate is moving in the right direction’ ¦

Exactly. And wow’ ¦just wow

I’m not saying all Adam fans would be doing this – unfirtunately there are some on all the boards, this one included, who will do this and they just make the experience so much worse for everyone. I’m not an Adam fan, not into his type of music, and I wish him success so I appreciate Adam fans who wish the same to Kris.

Whew! I just through with this entire thread! Ok, I’m wondering if anyone else is in the same situation I’m in. I have yet to be able to download my Itunes Pass!!!!!!!! AAGGHHHH!!! So, yeah, I went to Wal-Mart and got the hard copy which I wanted anyway. I have emailed Itunes since the night of the 17th and have not resolved the issue yet. One of their suggestions was to be sure I had downloaded the most recent version of Itunes. Well, guess what? I had not done that because I get tired of downloading a new Itunes every 3 weeks. So I got the new update, and it still won’t download although I’ve closed the program out numerous times, gone to the store, checked for available downloads, etc.

My point? I’m just curious as to whether there might be a lot of other people out there like me…maybe their pass has not been counted yet.

And, for the record, I’m not feeling the doom and gloom. I may later, but I think Kris will be just fine.

Also, thank you to the Adam fans who offered their congrats to Kris on release day. It’s very much appreciated!

THIS. Let’s remember that both Carrie and Jordan blew up with their second single moreso than their first.

Carrie’s 1st single was Jesus, Take The Wheel which spent 6 weeks at #1 on country radio and was a huge album and download seller for her. Her 2nd single was Don’t Forget To Remember Me which made it to #1 for 1 week on Mediabase but not on Billboard. If you’re thinking about Before He Cheats that was her 3rd single. Yes that was a huge single for her but Some Hearts had already sold over 3 million albums by the time BHC was released.

Starr, I agree on “Alright With Me.” It’s a great song, but I don’t understand the “next single” hype (by quite a few people). I really think either “Can’t Stay Away” or “Before We Come Undone” would be much more radio friendly. JMO though.

Yes that was a huge single for her but Some Hearts had already sold over 3 million albums by the time BHC was released.

My bad. I’m not a country fan so I only knew of JTtW and BHC. Either way, her first single wasn’t her biggest hit on that CD.

Would you be willing to provide the link where the Adam fans are buying the extra copies ? I am a fan and have not been included and that just peeves me lol

same here. How did I miss this memo?

Also, Daughtry has not outsold Breakaway.

I’m not saying all Adam fans would be doing this ‘“ unfirtunately there are some on all the boards, this one included, who will do this and they just make the experience so much worse for everyone. I’m not an Adam fan, not into his type of music, and I wish him success so I appreciate Adam fans who wish the same to Kris

just as there are some Kris fans who take every opportunity to slam Adam. It’s tit for tat and it’s the way Idol has always been. and please don’t think that, in the event, Kris outsells Adam, Kris’ fans won’t gloat about it.

I actually did go back and read the thread from last year and I noticed something as a point of interest. The Wednesday one day sales projections HDD predicted 300k for DC, then on Friday when they did their weekend predictions they narrowed it down to 280k-300k. That 280k was almost identical to what he ended up selling so I’d watch for the Friday predictions this week. So while HDD can often under and overestimate sometimes their data is actually pretty on target.

Why was it just Kris’s numbers that were modified by the Hits Daily Double? Did they overlook something the first time around, did they just give the wrong info the first time around? Just curious as to why they needed to modify it right away, if there was some kind of information that they had received that caused the change?

I don’t think they gave any reason. It could have been as simple as a typo in the original or as complex as changing the algorithms. Perhaps the 10K is what he sold in iTunes passes and they were originally not grouped with the rest of the album.

I don’t think we’ll ever know.

And yes, Friday predictions are usually more solid than one-day predictions and the Monday/Tuesday are better still. They can still all be wrong when the SoundScan numbers come out. Numbers can go up or down. This just allows people to set their expectations.

Yay!!!! Just opened my front door- & there was a package & it was Kris’s album!!!!! Only 2 days to get from the US to Australia- a day earlier than they predicted!!! See predictions can change!l lol!!

This really puts things in perspective for me- having Kris’s album in my hands is the most important thing !!

Oh & I’d like to add my thanks to all the Adam fans who offered their congratulations to Kris on his debut album release day!! Much appreciated!!

Judes, a couple of notes to your post on the David Cook stats to date:

I don’t believe we’ve had numbers for CBTM for weeks, so you can add a plus to that also. I don’t think anyone knows. Also, Permanent was not a normal single, in that it got one major performance only and was not sent to radio.

Boy, David Cook has got himself some protective fans!!!!!!!!!! I’m a Cook fan too. Well, I was last year…I’ve kinda moved on to Kris, but I def understand the Cook love!

That’s a low debut for 50 Cent too, and he’s pretty big. I guess the concept of paying for music is officially dead.

Hey judes, put a shrimp on the barbee!! haha…I know that sounds dumb, but it’s the first thing that came to mind for, you know, a celebration of Kris’s CD!! ha! Happy listening!

I guess there are more ppl here…

Allison’s FIWOU MV!!

http://new.music.yahoo.com/videos/'“218608496

ai_fan
11/18/2009 at 9:47 pm
Just for reference only, I did a little research.

Daughtry, the debut album, sold 303,677 copies its first week which you may think is huge, but his competition for the week, a Mr JayZ’s album sold 708,485 (holy crap). Daughtry went on to sell 6.1 mil copies of his debut album. JayZ’s album sold 2.4 mil copies.
Not comparing Chris Daughtry or his sales numbers to Kris, Adam, Allison or anyone else. Just saying, by this story alone, you can’t judge the future of an album or career by first week sales and that applies to anyone, Justin Beiber included (IDK who that kid is).

Just to add to that, reviews of Daughtry’s first album included these words and phrases ‘generic’ , ‘too commercial’ , ‘bland’ , ‘It’s bad enough this guy sounds like Creed’ ¦but Daughtry’s success sets a dangerous precedent of rewarding losers’  ‘tailor-made for ill-conceived radio formatting’  and ‘FuelNickelStanback’ 

Please don’t give up on any of these artists just yet. I remember hearing Chris Daughtry bought this big house in Greensboro, NC before the album was released and after reading the reviews I thought, WTH is he thinking -he can’t afford that, this albums gonna tank! Lol, I no longer pay attention to critics and numbers. Guessing Chris could buy several of those big houses now and have at least a little change left over.

I’m a Kris fan, but I wish the best to all of Season 8. I enjoyed this season as much or more than the other 7 and I never thought I would.

Thanks for this! Good insight!

Diane
11/18/2009 at 10:18 pm
Whew! I just through with this entire thread! Ok, I’m wondering if anyone else is in the same situation I’m in. I have yet to be able to download my Itunes Pass!!!!!!!! AAGGHHHH!!! So, yeah, I went to Wal-Mart and got the hard copy which I wanted anyway. I have emailed Itunes since the night of the 17th and have not resolved the issue yet. One of their suggestions was to be sure I had downloaded the most recent version of Itunes. Well, guess what? I had not done that because I get tired of downloading a new Itunes every 3 weeks. So I got the new update, and it still won’t download although I’ve closed the program out numerous times, gone to the store, checked for available downloads, etc.

My point? I’m just curious as to whether there might be a lot of other people out there like me’ ¦maybe their pass has not been counted yet.

And, for the record, I’m not feeling the doom and gloom. I may later, but I think Kris will be just fine.

Diane, that is so weird, your trouble with the iTunes pass. Mine downloaded at 11pm Pacific time right when I signed in. Try uninstalling your iTunes completely (don’t worry, your music should be backed up in your computer files) and then downloading the new version again. If this doesn’t work, then it’s definitely the Apple Store’s problem. Sorry to hear you’re having these problems! I guess you haven’t heard “From the Ashes” yet then? It’s an awesome song.

Did you bother to read the long post that I posted explaining this? but buying multiple copies every week for the six months is a bit unbalanced, no? Are you saying it’s not?

Did you bother to read read my explanation of what I thought was sane. I think all of us think buying 60 copies of an album is insane. You stated the obvious, so wht make the statement? To state the obvious,unless it was to “hint” at something. If Adam’s numbers are higher than Kris’ it’s because Adam sold more albums. (not because of thousands of unstable fans) It really is simple.

Why are you pointing out that Amazon has a limit, but iTunes does not? Who cares if it has a limit if you point out that iTunes does not? I’m totally confused by that point.

Did read what you qouted? This is what I said: “ITunes has limits also”

Likewise, I’m totally confused by that point.

just as there are some Kris fans who take every opportunity to slam Adam. It’s tit for tat and it’s the way Idol has always been. and please don’t think that, in the event, Kris outsells Adam, Kris’ fans won’t gloat about it.

I’ve seen a lot of reasoned discussion on this board from fans of both. While you are correct that there are members of both fanbases who would delight in celebrating the ‘failure’ of the other, I actually think more comes from those who like saying things to stir the pot. Unfortunately I (and probably others) tend to jump to the conclusion that ‘oh, that’s just typical of a _____ fan.’ When in reality, I would bet the gloaters aren’t particularly fans of anybody – but rather, enjoy the entertainment they receive from watching the bickering flourish.

So here is my pledge as a Kris fan…. Kris’s success/failure is not dependent Adam’s or Allison’s results. I’m as much a fan of Kris the person as I am Kris the musician. Kris the person wants his Idol friends to be successful, I’m sure. Why would I wish for anything less, especially when their success would not come at the expense of Kris’s?

“Hey judes, put a shrimp on the barbee!! haha’ ¦I know that sounds dumb, but it’s the first thing that came to mind for, you know, a celebration of Kris’s CD!! ha! Happy listening!”

Thanks Diane.I should do that as its very warm here today!! I’m really enjoying my first listen of the album!!! Great to hear the better sound quality!![ Something that free downloads can't replicate!]
Ironically the album has come on my husband’s birthday – we’re going out to dinner – is it too bad to celebrate receiving Kris’s album ahead of his birthday?lol

Still think it’s unfair to to call these bad numbers and comparisons to past Idol winners are a bit too skewed to really paint a picture.

I mean, for reference, some of Kris’ competition:

NORAH JONES
Projection: 155,000
Last album: 405,000

LEONA LEWIS
Projection: 63,000
Last album: 205,000

ONEREPUBLIC
Projection: 43,000
Last album: 75,000

Yeah I agree. 90k isn’t a bad number at all, not in today’s industry. He’s just going to have to find ways to make money outside of album sales, just like everyone else.

So here is my pledge as a Kris fan’ ¦. Kris’s success/failure is not dependent Adam’s or Allison’s results. I’m as much a fan of Kris the person as I am Kris the musician. Kris the person wants his Idol friends to be successful, I’m sure. Why would I wish for anything less, especially when their success would not come at the expense of Kris’s?

This!!!! Exactly how I feel as a Kris fan who lives with an Allison fan. I think all 3 of them (Kris, Adam and Allison) have the potential to do well.

kt_cle
11/18/2009 at 10:59 pm
just as there are some Kris fans who take every opportunity to slam Adam. It’s tit for tat and it’s the way Idol has always been. and please don’t think that, in the event, Kris outsells Adam, Kris’ fans won’t gloat about it.

I’ve seen a lot of reasoned discussion on this board from fans of both. While you are correct that there are members of both fanbases who would delight in celebrating the ‘failure’ of the other, I actually think more comes from those who like saying things to stir the pot. Unfortunately I (and probably others) tend to jump to the conclusion that ‘oh, that’s just typical of a _____ fan.’ When in reality, I would bet the gloaters aren’t particularly fans of anybody ‘“ but rather, enjoy the entertainment they receive from watching the bickering flourish.

So here is my pledge as a Kris fan’ ¦. Kris’s success/failure is not dependent Adam’s or Allison’s results. I’m as much a fan of Kris the person as I am Kris the musician. Kris the person wants his Idol friends to be successful, I’m sure. Why would I wish for anything less, especially when their success would not come at the expense of Kris’s?

Very well put!

Sherena
11/18/2009 at 11:03 pm

ONEREPUBLIC
Projection: 43,000
Last album: 75,000

Yeah I agree. 90k isn’t a bad number at all, not in today’s industry. He’s just going to have to find ways to make money outside of album sales, just like everyone else.

Wait, OneRepublic only sold 75,000 copies of their last album? I thought they sold more than that. They seem to be pretty popular. But than again, I only know 2 OneRepublic songs, so maybe people bought more singles than albums.

It’s interesting that HDD revised the prediction for Kris. Did any of the other predictions change, or just his?

It’s interesting that HDD revised the prediction for Kris. Did any of the other predictions change, or just his?

Just Kris, I believe. I guess we’ll never know if the original estimate was a typo or if they added in other sources or something.

Judes, tough question!!! =) Have fun celebrating with the hubby and then Kris. That sounds a little odd.

The update makes things a little better. Still within the realm of my original prediction: 60k-100k

I would be very pleased with a 90,000 number for Kris, but thrilled with 100,000.

On a separate note, I still cannot download my I tunes pass either. Extremely frustrating! Thank goodness I have a actual CD.

Wait, OneRepublic only sold 75,000 copies of their last album? I thought they sold more than that. They seem to be pretty popular. But than again, I only know 2 OneRepublic songs, so maybe people bought more singles than albums.

Well not in total. It was their debut week. I think it makes sense considering they were a fairly new act and I *think* Apologize and Stop and Stare were hits *after* the album was already released. But One Republic never were big album movers, they never broke platinum.

LLWD has cracked the Top 20 on the mediabase Hot AC chart (it’s at #20 on the live chart as I type this). It’s still sitting at #37 on the Top 40 live chart

Judes, tough question!!! =) Have fun celebrating with the hubby and then Kris. That sounds a little odd.

Ha – good to have a bit of levity on here Diane!! Perhaps I’ll just allow the great smile I have now listening to Kris’s album & keep it & allow my husband to think its all for him . I now have many of Kris ‘s songs firmly implanted in my memory so it won’t be too hard to bring them to mind to help me!!!lol

washyourhands
11/18/2009 at 11:09 pm
I would be very pleased with a 90,000 number for Kris, but thrilled with 100,000.

On a separate note, I still cannot download my I tunes pass either. Extremely frustrating! Thank goodness I have a actual CD.

Aha!!! THANK YOU, washyourhands! My conspiracy theory is being confirmed. Ok, I don’t really think there’s a conpiracy there except that maybe we’re not the only ones. Maybe Kris’s numbers are actually much higher than they appear. Hmm……..

Do you think they revised their number because they were told about the ITunes pass just now, or something? Or is it common for them to revise predictions?

Maybe they will ditch the i-Tunes pass this next season. From all the reports I’ve heard it doesn’t seem like it was worthwhile !! It is very frustrating if there are many who have had this trouble like you two Diane !! Hopefully this is rectified soon!!

On a separate note, I still cannot download my I tunes pass either. Extremely frustrating! Thank goodness I have a actual CD.

And just for more confusion, LLWD is on the ITUNES singles chart twice! It’s at #45 as a single and again at #93 as a download from the deluxe version album. Why wouldn’t they just combine those numbers? Anyone? I could see if one was a live version and one was a recorded version, but it’s the same recording. If a third one shows up on from his ITUNES pass, I’m throwing in the towel on trying to figure these numbers out.

undercooked, I’m with you. If it’s the same song, combine it! Sigh. I’m tired of the numbers game too…I’m not gonna try to figure it out. Just gonna enjoy the numbers Kris has and know that they could have been worse. He’ll be fine. *crosses fingers*

girlygirl
11/18/2009 at 11:15 pm
LLWD has cracked the Top 20 on the mediabase Hot AC chart (it’s at #20 on the live chart as I type this). It’s still sitting at #37 on the Top 40 live chart

This is a good thing, right? LOL sorry I’m super new to this thing, and never followed an artist’s career this closely before.

I don’t understand why LLWD is on itunes twice either. They should be combined. It’s the same song, and just because the album is released now it’s the same song.
IDK, it seems stupid to me.

Between the hassle and confusion of the pass and the duel singles, Apple is looking like a hot mess to me lately.

Did you hear the cosmo interview Kris did? The girl must have bought the pass and showed him her ipod. He said “Thats not the album, that’s the picture from NOBO” She said, “That’s the cover I got with the album”. He was surprised.

My daughter’s basketball team lost, but it was only a pre-season tournament. Those outside 3 point shots are a killer! Real life stuff really helps put things in perspective. lol

For myself, I got into IDOL season 7 and championed David Cook. It was a rollercoaster ride, wondering if David would sell well enough to please 19/RCA and at best quiet his naysayers. Even though it doesn’t seem to be heralded in everyday life, David Cook’s sales are neck and neck with the likes of Lady Gaga. Surprisingly, Lady Gaga’s 1st week sales were only 24,000 units while David Cook’s were in the 280,000 range. Both Gaga and David Cook worked really hard to get every sale after that– David building a fanbase outside Idol and Gaga building a fan base in the United States.

I have to say I’m more than surprised by 1st week sales’ numbers for well-known bands — Flyleaf 1st weeks sales in 2006 was only 7,000 units, but over the years sold over well over a million units. One Republic 1st week sales in 2007 was 75,000 and sold only 897,00 units.

Only being aware of IDOL numbers, I have to tell you I was shocked as sh*t to see that these bands/artists are still considered successful even with what IDOL people would consider a low-showing. Switchfoot sold 4,600 it’s 1st week and only sold 37,000 units total. Wow! All respected artists in the music world. Seeing these numbers really puts things in perspective for me.

As far as the HDD numbers are concerned, I still think they might run higher and I will be interested to see what the final prediction will be — though I’m from Connecticut, I have faith in Arkansas to come through for Kris again until the single can reach a larger audience. ::wink::wink:: I also have faith in his other fans around the country. I am a staunch believer that Arkansas alone did not give Kris the title nor did the wrath of scorned Gokey fans.

My husband has little patience for IDOL talk, but I shared the sales news with him on the ride to the basketball game. He doesn’t understand why I care so much. I said it’s similar to investing in a sports’ team and watching them give 110% but not catching any breaks. This kid has the talent, the heart, the drive, but for some reason it seems like an uphill battle.

My husband merely said, “his sales will grow over time and he’ll be successful. He’s in it for the long-term.” I agreed with him and felt a little better.

As I reasoned things out, I do believe 19/Jive (simon fuller, et al) had an idea of sales projections for Kris even before HDD numbers came out — logically I can’t see them not knowing. Can’t run a huge business blindly.

All in all, whether it be a dwindling fanbase, a total lack of interest in IDOL with the exception of a small subset (NPR), or the economy, the IDOL Sales’ numbers have come down to earth. Maybe this is a good thing, giving these kids the opportunity to develop their craft and grow in the industry with less pressure, without the do or die attitude.

I’m okay now, a bit disappointed for the 1st week sales. I still see Kris succeeding, but I was hoping his fans would have come out in force … and still I can’t help but hope. His music touches me and that’s all that matters. I told my husband, I Need To Know, kills me. If his music touches me to that degree, it can touch a thousand more and thousand more after that.

@evanjane STOP IT, you’re making me cry! I bawl everytime I listen to “I Need to Know” – I just can’t help it!

Starr: This is a good thing, right? LOL sorry I’m super new to this thing, and never followed an artist’s career this closely before.

Welcome to the crazy world of American Idol Addicts. And don’t feel bad. I don’t understand half of the numbers people post!

evanjane, good thoughts. I’m going to call it a night. Hope for good news in the morning (Itunes I guess).

Hey, ai_fan!!! Where’s that link for the interview?

Did you hear the cosmo interview Kris did? The girl must have bought the pass and showed him her ipod. He said ‘Thats not the album, that’s the picture from NOBO’  She said, ‘That’s the cover I got with the album’ . He was surprised.

yeah i heard it too (btw very good interview). I got the same too with the itunes pass: picture of NoBo and no titles for the 8 or 9 first tracks. Not great customer service!
Well at the time they were selling the pass, the titles were labeled track 1, track 2… I guess once it’s loaded in the customer’ss personal account on Itunes, it can’t be changed easily but if there was a way they should have done it because it was annoying to rename each track.

Diane, you can find the link in the other Kris’s thread about the album title (translate your soul — i laugh each time i see it)

I’m okay now, a bit disappointed for the 1st week sales. I still see Kris succeeding, but I was hoping his fans would have come out in force ‘ ¦ and still I can’t help but hope. His music touches me and that’s all that matters. I told my husband, I Need To Know, kills me. If his music touches me to that degree, it can touch a thousand more and thousand more after that.

Aww. I’m sorry you feel that way, but I think that Kris’s (revised) numbers are still really good considering the economy in general and the music industry in particular. And I think that Kris has so much potential for long-term growth and with his radio spins and AI, that he’s poised to do so. So I personally have the utmost faith in Kris’s ability to ultimately do well. Now I just need that for Adam and Allison. *fingers crossed*

So here is my pledge as a Kris fan’ ¦. Kris’s success/failure is not dependent Adam’s or Allison’s results. I’m as much a fan of Kris the person as I am Kris the musician. Kris the person wants his Idol friends to be successful, I’m sure. Why would I wish for anything less, especially when their success would not come at the expense of Kris’s?

This!!!! Exactly how I feel as a Kris fan who lives with an Allison fan. I think all 3 of them (Kris, Adam and Allison) have the potential to do well.

Moi aussi! I’m an Adam stan and Kris and Allison fan and I have no need to want any of them to fail. They’re friends with each other, all three are really talented people. All three have put out some decent music, especially considering what dreck most post AI albums are. Is it there as much as it could be for all three given more time and greater artistic control? No, I think all three are capable of more. But what a great thing to be able to say. That they all created pretty good albums, and are capable of great ones. So why would I want any of them not to be able to explore their respective talent for years to come? It’s not like Adam, Kris, Allison are some Miley Cyrus types who can’t sing, don’t write songs, can’t play instruments and is wholly a function of the marketing of a major corporation. Adam, Kris, Allison are a function of a cheesy karaoke show, but despite that, have talent I want to see what they can create with it.

So I was prepared to put my armor on to defend Kris’s original sales, which I still thought were okay, but still will for his latest ones (I don’t think I do, as I think they’re okay) and will for Adam’s crappy sales(no, I don’t believe the hype that he’ll do that well, see; FYE single), and Allison’s as well.

I’m hopeful that sales will pick up by next weekend when the holiday shopping season starts. The economy is making people conserve their money for more essential items. I personally have to buy several of both Kris’ and Adam’s as gifts for friends, so I expect others probably have the same idea. Oh, and Allison’s too for sure.

@cher: I am doing the same as well. This week I only bought for myself, but I will be buying more for the Holidays. I sincerely hope that a lot of people are thinking the same thing and this will help sales for all of them.

And just for more confusion, LLWD is on the ITUNES singles chart twice! It’s at #45 as a single and again at #93 as a download from the deluxe version album. Why wouldn’t they just combine those numbers?

If someone just buys the single and doesn’t buy the album, it’s counted as a single sale, so that’s a separate number. If you buy the album, it’s part of the album sale.

For example, I bought Allison’s single, but probably won’t buy her album, so that sale is counted as a single download.

If someone just buys the single and doesn’t buy the album, it’s counted as a single sale, so that’s a separate number. If you buy the album, it’s part of the album sale.

But why list it on the ITUNES single chart if it is off the album download? I think that is what is confusing me. But, overall, I think I understand. Only the LLWD downloaded as a single will be counted towards the single numbers. The other LLWD downloaded as part of the album, won’t.

So…………..who wants to figure out what #93 did last Tuesday and extrapolate how the album is doing so far on ITUNES (ballpark wise), if that is even possible.

ETA-so does that mean there should be a third LLWD that comes off the regular album? The #93 is from the deluxe version. Or do you think they would combine the album “single” numbers.