MSNBC posted two commentaries today, one is from the sharp and cynical Andy Dehnart, who believes American Idol has nowhere to go but down

The signs are everywhere. Ratings for “American Idol 6″ were down (20 percent for the finale alone); RCA Records recently dropped two “Idol” winners, Ruben Studdard and Taylor Hicks, and one runner-up, Katharine McPhee, from its roster; and the show has been cloned relentlessly and those clones fail, even one created by the same producers (“The Next Great American Band”).

FOX’s reality smash has certainly produced more than just ratings over its six-season history. Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood are both true idols, continuing to gather awards, critical acclaim and record sales. But they seem to be the only two “American Idols” out of six…

…This downturn was inevitable, and producers have only themselves to blame. By offering ratings bait in the form of awful auditions for weeks and weeks each season, all but ignoring the singers who will eventually form the top 24 or 12, they set a tone that establishes the show as more of a joke than a true singing competition.

The other  piece is  from MSNBC contributor, Craig Berman.   He thinks the naysayers who believe American Idol is about to crash and burn are just part of the inevitable backlash that comes when a program becomes a wildly popular cultural phenomenon.

While it’s clear that “American Idol” isn’t perfect and that last season won’t go down as the best reality programming in television history, let’s not get too crazy with the eulogies. This is still “American Idol,” the program that’s become an integral part of the cultural landscape.

Of course, this being America, some are eager to tear down whoever is currently on top of the cultural mountain. “Idol” is in those crosshairs this year. Critics snipe at the lack of talent among the singers, the sameness of the show every year or the fact that Simon Cowell is just too mean. (OK, that may just be Rosie O’Donnell.)

But saying that “Idol” is on a quick slide down the slopes into oblivion is just wishful thinking from the haters. The fact is that the show has all the ingredients for one of the best seasons ever in 2008, and even if it does nothing at all, it’s still poised to be a staple of the FOX lineup and a boon to advertisers and product-placement companies everywhere.

“American Idol” is, in fact, the bright spot of what otherwise appears to be a dreary television lineup this spring.

So, are you on Team Dehnart or Team Berman? While I think Berman makes some salient points about how the producers emphasize style over substance, I don’t think American Idol’s current failings are going to result in its eminent demise. Berman, on the other hand,  paints a rather naive picture of the typical Idol contestant, “…the talented nobody discovered in some obscure town…nurtured until he or she became a superstar,” and Idol as “the show that makes dreams come true.”   The Idol pool has become increasingly more professional since Season 4.   However, I agree that’s it’s way  too soon to predict  that the show has run out of steam.

Honestly, I think that  American Idol  could become an institution, like Saturday Night Live. That show, like Idol,  broke  new ground and was a cultural touchstone in its day.   When  the  original  Not Ready For Prime Time Players departed for greener pastures,  the show floundered for a few years.   In 1981, it was on the brink of being cancelled.   The producers re-tooled and it came back, as did the  viewers that had left it for dead.   Over the years the show has had good and bad years, but generation after generation of viewers still tune in to watch. And Saturday Night Live, after 33 years, can still spark talk around the water cooler.

I think American Idol will have a long and varied run on television. It could outlive a lot of us…

So peeps, whadaya think?

 
  • Chicago-sally

    Hmm…I made the statement a ways back and still stick to it….AI continues to live AS LONG AS and ONLY as long as they continue to make hit stars. Big stars. The problem I see now is that 19E is incompetent. They take the 1st and 2nd place winners and do absolutely nothing with them, that’s why several up and leave 19E.

    Anyway, AI will continue to get viewers and people will continue to feel apart of making ‘stars’, but 19E has to put more marketing money behind their talent and make them stars. Another thing — they’ve got to find talent that want to be big stars. It seems most of their contestants are happy to get face time and get into the top 10, do the tour, and that’s all for them. When AI first started, those first 2-3 seasons you had a feeling it was a real competition. Now, the contestants just come out and do karaoke. No heart and soul into wanting to actually “win.”

    Star Search gave the winner $$$ but no contract and no booking gigs. AI promises a record contract and management rep. Which would you rather have the money and fame, or the record contract and fame?

  • bigjr6633

    American Idol, relevant or not, it still attracts close to 30 million people per episode making it the biggest show on television. The problem doesn’t lie in whether this show has past its due, the problem lies with the contestants. I agree with Chicago-sally, most of the contestants last season felt no desire to win and even said they were in this for this exposure, which sucks for them because when this new season starts, that whole season is going to be irrelevant.

    Heres my take on Ruben,Taylor, and Kat

    Ruben – After he won, he went platinum, got nominated for a Grammy, then he just fell of existence. As much as the fans support you, you have to keep your name out there and he never did that, forget record sales, if the only time we see you or hear about you is the AI finale, somethng is wrong.

    Taylor – I never fully expected Taylor to do well so, I’m not suprised he got dropped from the label. In all honesty, the majority of people who voted for him just want to see Taylor perform, they don’t want to hear Taylor. Taylor had a gimmick on AI and that’s why he won and that gimmick is not going to translate for him having a successful career, the same with Blake.

    Kat – She may look commercial and have a pop voice, but that is not very appealing after AI, just ask Jordin. Considering Chris Daughtry’s success, we all know he should’ve won AI5 and in AI6, Melinda should’ve won. Kat is just not that appealing, I mean when she sings, it’s always half there, she never goes above that level to would really make her a star.

    The bottom line is when AI returns next week, it wil be the biggest show this year. I don’t think people care as mcuh as they did before, people will still watch, but people are not becoming invested as they once did. Especially, when the really good people get voted off too soon leaving overrated people like Jordin and Blake and Taylor and Kat as the final two. I’m sorry, but those 4 people are not special at all, you need people who can compete with the other popular artists of today, like Justin Timberlake, Beyonce, and people like that.

  • http://www.idolicious.com Kat

    Nothing good lasts forever, and Idol’s time will come. I’m not ready to sound the death knell, though.

    I also wonder whether it matters if Idol turns out stars or not. I’ve always thought of Idol the television show as a completely separate entity from the Idols as pop stars. If they two were inextricably intertwined, it seems to me that every first and second place finisher would become the Next Big Pop Star.

    Could not disagree more, of course, with the statement that a contestant retrospectively “should have one” because they proved to be the most commercially successful.

  • calimari

    I agree that people want to see Taylor perform, but I disagree that he won because of a “gimmick”. Blake – he had a gimmick – but what’s Taylor’s “gimmick”? That he plays instruments? So do others. That he has gray hair? How is that different than the girl w/ the pink hair, the guy who shaves his head, Bo with the long hair? Some are rock, some are country, some are pop – Taylor is more retro soul/blues. Where is the gimmick? He danced on a few songs? What about JPL? Others have done the same. I just think his style/audience is more niche, and the CD didn’t reflect that & then didn’t get proper promo/support.

  • neonorange

    Honestly, I think that American Idol could become an institution, like Saturday Night Live.

    Late night televsion is more forgiving to shows that may be floundering in ratings than say a prime time slot show. If AI’s ratings drop significantly (which is a huge IF), then I see them being canceled or at the very least moved to a different time slot. However, IMHO that is not going to happen for quite a few more years.

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    If AI’s ratings drop significantly (which is a huge IF), then I see them being canceled or at the very least moved to a different time slot.

    I used SNL as an example to illustrate how it’s possible to recover a show’s audience when TPTB re-think what they are doing and change direction. Of course, networks don’t usually give prime-time shows that are floundering a second shot–this is true.

    But Idol could lose half its audience and the shows ratings would still be considered high. Idol has a lot of wiggle room between their present numbers and cancellation.

  • http://inkdbylilyanna.com carolina

    bigjr, Ruben made a mistake — he hired a local relative as his manager who immediately robbed him blind. He didn’t get to buy that big house he was looking for. He lived in a small rental with his mother for 3 years during all the Court appointments. Ultimately, the Court sided with him. Did he get the money back? I doubt it.

    He also was hospitalized in bad shape. His weight was killing him. Today, he’ll be okay.

    Hey wait, reading more of your post, Clive, is that you?

    Taylor’s a gimmick, Kat just flat out stinks, bittyd should have won, the American people voted wrong. . .

    Oh! Wait! I think the left coast is checking in.

  • hoodathunk

    Taylor’s gimmick: He was the best performer on the show. He entertained people. He was original and memorable. He inspired passion. And he had a great voice to boot. It amuses me to see the way people are so easily brainwashed into thinking Taylor is a failure. He made more money touring as a headliner in 2007 than any former Idol winner or contestant. His strength is LIVE. I doubt they’ll ever be able to capture the electicity of Taylor on record. Unless you’ve seen him live, then you reslly have no idea.

  • weelassie

    The only gimmick Taylor had was that he really wanted to win and poured himself whole heartedly into it. If that is a gimmick-I wish I could bottle it and sell it. I’d be a millionaire. I, myself, find him special. Last season, I bet there were contestants that were special too but they just didn’t let us see it. I was disappointed in the way they changed the show last year. Hopefully, they will change that this year and put the emphasis back on the singers.

  • Ladybug

    I see American Idol as sheer entertainment and less and less the arbiter of The Next Big Star, post Idol. (Very much in the vein of what Kirsten wrote above).

    I think, as TV entertainment, Idol will continue to be quite popular because it still does retain its sort of a one-of-its-kind distinction, despite the various imitators out there. (Some long gone. None as successful as Idol)

    There is the possibility there will be another Big Seller Of Units, but even if that becomes less of a reality, post Idol, the show itself will continue to engage people.

    I absolutely believe there should be the life-changing story of someone like Elliott or Clay every year to give the viewers someone to root for. I never saw Taylor as a “gimmick” (that would be B-b-b-blake and/or Sanjaya), but more as a force of nature. He simply overwhelmed that show and certainly helped make that year of Idol must-see TV.

    If they can have some entertainers with great stories and top level talent who aren’t simply the same-ol, same-ol, it can regain a lot of mojo.

    The jury is out for this year, and we have a bit of a wait to find out.