Idol Sales News – Week Ending 11/23/08

Winner Stats:

1. Ruben – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Soulfulà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (Dec 9, 2003) – 416,569 (# 1)
2. Carrie – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Some Heartsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 15, 2005) – 314,549 (# 2)
3. Taylor – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Taylor Hicksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (Dec 12, 2006) – 298,199 (# 2)
4. Kelly – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Thankfulà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (April 15, 2003) – 297,000 (# 1)
5. Fantasia – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Free Yourselfà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 23, 2004) – 239,389 (#8)
6. Jordin – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 20, 2007) – 119,119 (#10)

Average number of units: 280,804

Removing outliers (bottom and top values), average number of units sold:
287,284

New Stats:
1. Ruben – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Soulfulà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (Dec 9, 2003) – 416,569 (# 1)
2. Carrie – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Some Heartsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 15, 2005) – 314,549 (# 2)
3. Taylor – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Taylor Hicksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (Dec 12, 2006) – 298,199 (# 2)
4. Kelly – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Thankfulà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (April 15, 2003) – 297,000 (# 1)
5. David – “David Cook” (Nov 18, 2008) – 280,000 (#3)
6. Fantasia – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Free Yourselfà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 23, 2004) – 239,389 (#8)
7. Jordin – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 20, 2007) – 119,119 (#10)

For reference: List of all Debut Album First Weeks:

1. Clay – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Measure of a Manà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ (Oct 14, 2003) – 612,859 (# 1)
2. Ruben – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Soulfulà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (Dec 9, 2003) – 416,569 (# 1)
3. Carrie – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Some Heartsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 15, 2005) – 314,549 (# 2)
4. Daughtry à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Daughtryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 21, 2006) – 303,677 (#2)
5. Taylor – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Taylor Hicksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (Dec 12, 2006) – 298,199 (# 2)
6. Kelly – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Thankfulà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (April 15, 2003) – 297,000 (# 1)
7. David Cook – “David Cook” (November 18, 2008) – 279,578 (#3)
8. Fantasia – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Free Yourselfà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 23, 2004) – 239,389 (#8)
9. Bo – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“The Real Thingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (December 13, 2005) – 226,976 (# 4)
10. Jennifer Hudson à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jennifer Hudsonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (September 30, 2008) – 217,185 (#2)
11. David Archuleta – “David Archuleta” (November 11, 2008) – 182,927 (#2)
12. Jordin – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jordin Sparksà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (November 20, 2007) – 119,119 (#10)
13. Katharine – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Katharine McPheeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (January 30, 2007) – 115,761 (# 2)
14. Elliott Yamin à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Elliott Yaminà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (March 20, 2007)- 90,439 (#3)
15. Blake – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Audio Day Dreamsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (December 4, 2007) – 98K (#10)
16. Kellie Pickler à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Small Town Girlà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (October 31, 2006) – 79,133 (#9)
17. Bucky Covington à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Bucky Covingtonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (April 17, 2007) – 60,814 (#4)
18. Josh Gracin à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Joshua Gracinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (June 15, 2004) – 57,048 (#11)
19. Justin – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Justin Guarinià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (June 10, 2003) – 57,000 (# 20)
20. Kimberley – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“One Loveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (May 4, 2004) – 56,894 (# 16)
21. Diana – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Blue Skiesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (December 7, 2004) – 47,000 ( # 52)
22. Tamyra – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Dreamerà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (May 25, 2004) – 39,091 (# 23)
23. Mandisa – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“True Beautyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (July 31, 2007) – 17,140 (# 43)
24. Phil – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Phil Staceyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (April 29, 2008) – 13,135 (# 43)
25. LaToya – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Love and Lifeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (September 20, 2005) – 12,546 (# 82)
26. Mario – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Mario Vasquezà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (September 26, 2006)- 11,812 (# 80)
27. Kristy Lee – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Why Wait?à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (September 14, 2008) – 9,548 (#49)
28. Constantine – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Constantineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (August 7, 2007) – 8,918 (# 75)
29. Constantine – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Pray for the Soul of Bettyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (May 10, 2005) – 7,467 (# 129)
30. Paris – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Princess Pà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (May 8, 2007) – 6,320 (# 133)
31. Jasmine – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Jasmine Triasà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ (July 12, 2005) – 4,855
32. John Stevens – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Redà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (June 28, 2005)- 4,349
33. Ace Young à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Ace Youngà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (July 15, 2008) – 4,173 (#160)
34. Chris Sligh à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Running Back To Youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (May 6, 2008) – 4,073 (#190)
35. Jim Verraros – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Rollercosterà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (April 26, 2005) – 1,571
36. Corey Clark – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Corey Clarkà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (June 21, 2005) – 557
37. Ayla Brown – à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Forwardà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (October 17, 2006) – 300

From Billboard

Reigning “American Idol” champion David Cook’s self-titled 19 Recordings/RCA debut arrives at No. 3 with 280,000. That’s more than double the first-week numbers of 2007 champ Jordin Sparks’ self-titled debut, which sold 119,000 copies and has gone on to shift 956,000.

Congrats David Cook and all Cook fans, fantastic numbers! on to healthy numbers the coming weeks.

What a lovely number!! David Cook should be ecstatic.

great summary MJ and Kirsten!
Is the billboard number a rounded number that will be adjusted later this week? I heard that somewhere. HDD had a few more 283…something. Great job David. HOpefully more units will move on Black Friday this year.

280,000 big ones, congratulations David Cook.

Let’s extrapolate Cook’s numbers to 2006. As I warned last week, this is just to illustrate the change in the market, but it makes a lot of assumptions (but, I love to do math, so, any excuse):

Here are some stats from Billboard for this week.
- Number of album units sold this week: 9.45 million units
- Number of albums units sold the same week last year: 13.96 million units
- Therefore, sales are down 32% from the same week last year.
- Number of album units sold the same week in 2006: 17.02 million units
- Therefore, sales are down 44% from 2006 (WOW!)

So, if Cook had released during Black Friday week 2006 (and all this stuff was perfectly scalable), he would have sold 403K. If you use the same drop stats as last week (31%), it would be 367K (just for those who like to compare the same things).

Is the billboard number a rounded number that will be adjusted later this week?

The BB number is rounded because news agencies like BB are only allowed to publish 3 significant digits. These are the numbers from SoundScan so they will be considered the “official numbers”. Sometimes, SoundScan numbers leak and we get the actual numbers (down to the last digit). Sometimes, SoundScan re-runs its charts if it detects a problem. Usually, these things are finalized by tomorrow (chart re-runs don’t typically result in much of a change).

Wow!! Yay Cookie!! :clap_tb:

And, high five to Kirsten and MJ on great info, research, analysis, and just overall goodness.

Question — Did BB report/leak early today (due to holiday?) Don’t we typically have to wait (excrutiatingly) until late afternoon for album numbers? And, finally, as someone else asked, is the 280K number solid now or is there some chance of change?

Thanks for any insight and apologies in advance for annoying novice questions!

ETA: I see most of my questions were pre-empted by answers! LOL Many thanks, again, Kirsten!

Question à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’  Did BB report/leak early today (due to holiday?)

Yes, BB reported early. Usually they don’t report until about 4 hours later. It could be the holiday, but sometimes they release early when there is an anticipated album. Meanwhile, the download numbers are coming out later.

Last year this week was Black Friday, that doesn’t count, at least not for me. But if we have to…

Kirsten, that’s not the right way to calculate it. It should be 280K*(17.02M/9.45M)=504K, not *1.44. Hope it makes sense, I can’t explain math in english…

Kirsten, thanks for all the info. You rock.

Down 32% from Same week Last Year

This is bad…
ETA: But if it was Black Friday week it’s not as bad as it looks like…

I was so very pleasantly surprised to see this already. Thanks for doing the extrapolation, Kirsten. These numbers make me very happy and even more confident now that this is just the start of an amazing career for Mr. Cook.

Go David!

Here’s a silly question — cuz I’m no mathmatician or statistician, far, far from it — but my elementary thinking (and very rough math) has me thinking that a 32% drop from 2007 would put Cook’s theoretical 2007 number close to 420. My thoughts flow like this — the 32% is measured from the higher number to see what is subtracted to get to the current number? Since we don’t have the higher number, duh, my very silly rough analysis has me claiming 33% or 1/3 for easy math for me, which means the 280 number represents 2/3 of what the 2007 number would be. Halving it gives you 1/3, which has me adding 140 to the 280 for 420 — ultimately rendering the 2006 number much higher (but since 44% doesn’t break down as easily for my brain, I can’t do that one. LOL)

Where am I going wrong, because frankly I assume I am and I’m doing it on the internet for all to see?!

ETA: Elisad gives the math speak for 2006. Thank you Elisad. Mine’s still not in English, but I tried to use words, so it’s a start (for me!) LOL

Kirsten, thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not the right way to calculate it. It should be 280K*(17.02/9.45M)=504K

Yes, you can do a straight ratio if you like. People just asked me earlier to do the same calculation I did last week for Archie. I just said, “what if he sold 44%” more. But, it is a 44% drop and not a 44% increase so I can see your rational. LOL. It’s all dodgy math anyway. It presumes that all albums and customers are equal which they are not (ie somebody who purchased a Nickelback album is 44% less likely to do it today than they were 2 years ago. But it may be that a Beyonce customer is 88% less likely to buy the album and Nickelback customers are just as likely. Which, interestingly enough, they moved 325K of their last album during it’s first week and 326K this week so maybe it is true. It may be that hit albums are still moving a lot, but catalog items or not. Or the other way. The market isn’t homogenous so extrapolating is just for fun). But, I warned everybody last week about this and nobody objected last week so I did the same thing.

What I find is amazing is the consistency of Idol winners. Look at how they all grouped in the same area. Before you add in Cook’s stats, the average number of units sold is 280,804. If you add in Cook’s stats, it’s stays consistent at 280,690. Barely a change. I don’t know what that means, but I find it interesting. Runner-ups are all over tha map, but Idol winners keep on trucking (with Jordin being an outlier – poor Jordin)

Oh dear god…trust me about math, madam. I don’t major in EE for nothing.

The 44% drop, is 44% from 2006, while you *1.44, that adds 44% of 2008′s sales. That is not the correct proportion.

Last week I didn’t visit the sales thread, I don’t how it was done. I’m not trying to spin about the sales (personally I think this whole method is kinda whatever). But it’s the math thing…

Yes, I recall last week with DA that the market was 24% down, which meant that his 180K number represented roughly 3/4 of the better year’s sales — meaning his theoretical prior year number would have been 240K.

But, as you say, it’s just for curious fun because we can not know what part of the sales drop represents pure market/economy factors as opposed to individual buyers and interest (along with countless other immeasurable factors.)

Still fun to think about though…

Awesome number! I’m thrilled it didn’t get adjusted down a huge chunk from HDD like Beyonce (506K to 482K)

Shouldn’t David be 5th and Fantasia 6th?

Congrats to Cook and the Cookies….
Great numbers…

IÂ ´m guessing we are also having a party today for the platinum for Crush and Magic Rainbows…

ETA:
Sorry Dancin… and OSAT party too

and the platinum for one step at a time (should be this week)

congrats david C

Magic Rainbow’s party was last week!

WooHoo for Cookie!! :clap_tb: And as always, thank you Kirsten and MJ!

^^Really??? I miss that???? dang it, IÂ ´m drinking my celebration tequila now then…

Oh dear godà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦trust me about math, madam. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t major in EE for nothing.

On MJs, everybody is an EE (LOL – you had to be here back in the day. We owned this place. Well, there were a few lawyers).

The 44% drop, is 44% from 2006, while you *1.44, that adds 44% of 2008à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales. That is not the correct proportion.

I know. That’s just what I said in my response to your previous post. I’m just doodling with the stats. As you would know from your stats classes, you can’t extrapolate numbers like this period and justify the numbers as good stats. It’s all garbage. So, I went with the easy to explain way of doing it. Rules of ratios make people’s heads explode (as I have learned from experience). This was just easier math to explain.

Look. It’s not even worth arguing about. Unless you dig into the interior numbers, you cannot extrapolate and defend your numbers using any methodology.

Does every thread have to turn into a mess?

Easier to explain? Alright then. I’m sorry for “turning this thread into a mess”, I’m leaving right now.

Kristen,

“It presumes that all albums and customers are equal which they are not (ie somebody who purchased a Nickelback album is 44% less likely to do it today than they were 2 years ago. But it may be that a Beyonce customer is 88% less likely to buy the album and Nickelback customers are just as likely.”

This statement is not pertinent to the statistics you are showing. You never attempted to account for this kind of change of sales.

Shouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t David be 5th and Fantasia 6th?

David is 5th. I just forgot to update Fantasia’s and Jordin’s ranking. I’ll do it now.

deleted-

This statement is not pertinent to the statistics you are showing. You never attempted to account for this kind of change of sales.

No I didn’t. That’s why I posted warnings last week that these are garbage stats. You can’t extrapolate. Well you can, but it would be just as legimate to use the cost of the CDs to do it and say that in 2006 dollars, they would have sold even fewer CDs (due to general inflation with a defalation in the mean cost of CDs). But that’s garbage too.

What I find is amazing is the consistency of Idol winners. Look at how they all grouped in the same area. Before you add in Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s stats, the average number of units sold is 280,804. If you add in Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s stats, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s stays consistent at 280,690. Barely a change. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know what that means, but I find it interesting.

That is pretty odd to me, especially if you consider the remarkable drop in ratings for the show in the past couple of years. I think I heard AI7 averaged nearly 30 million viewers, whereas AI5 peaked with the highest ratings. Does anyone have each season’s average ratings– and finale ratings, for that matter? I wonder how each winners’ sales for each season correlate or not with ratings (indicative of the popularity of that season). Or, if we really wanna go crazy with statistics, can we also compare it with another potential indicator of the season’s popularity– AI tour sales? I remember reading your AI tour ticket sales stats a few months ago, Kirsten and I remember reading that AI6 and AI3 had less popular tours, right? So that seems to correlate a little bit with the winners’ first sales week…?

Digital sales
14 19 ARCHULETA*DAVID CRUSH 45845 -36 72001 1037502
30 48 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE JUST A DREAM 22219 -42 38502 407640

bonuses:
– 75 COOK*DAVID DECLARATION 16176 999 0 16176
71 98 COOK*DAVID LIGHT ON 11286 -47 21127 258653
– 122 COOK*DAVID PERMANENT 8897 999 0 8897
– 148 COOK*DAVID COME BACK TO ME 7528 999 0 7528

hot 100 airplay before recurrents removed:
No. 44 – David Archuleta (-3.5 million)
No. 134 – David Cook ( 3.2 million)

Thanks Kirsten for all the numbers. I really appreciate the time you put into giving us all the data. I agree that extrapolating numbers is a pointless exercise. No artist is going to make money from ‘what if’ sales of their album. Today’s sales are today’s sales, period.

Yikes! This is a happy day!!! No one is criticizing or arguing that I see. Kirsten you’re fantastic, period, end of sentence. All anyone seemed to me to be saying (and I can speak with some authority, as I’m one of the two who at least tried to say it lol) is that we believe the calculation to reflect the difference from year to year actually was a little different from the one you used. Anywho, all’s good here.

Let’s recap the Cookie release week for fun and good times:

Nov 18th: Release, Release party and concert at HRC, #1 overall on iTunes by nightfall.

Nov 19th: TOML is announced platinum!

Nov 22nd: LO Video is #1 on Vh-1 (and a recent post cited DC named Favorite Top40 Male Artist by New Music Awards Mag, but that appeared odd to me, frankly…)

Nov 23rd: AMA Red Carpet Concert Gig!!

Nov 24th: 280K first week sales for debut CD WhooooHooooo!!

Break out the champagne~ Great week for Cook, grats all around!!

Thanks for doing the extrapolation, Kirsten. I can’t say one way or the other whether it’s “right” or not, but it is interesting to see how the downturn in the music business may have affected sales, meaning that the rankings for the Idol sales may be a bit more like “apples and oranges” than it appears on its face.

I posted some stats in the other thread on DC’s placement in sales this year. Pretty damn solid performance in this market, really.

I think I heard AI7 averaged nearly 30 million viewers, and AI5 had the highest ratings. Does anyone have each seasonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s average ratingsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ and finale ratings for that matter?

If you check under MJs Historical charts (one of the choices at the top), she has rating information for quite a few seasons.

I remember reading your AI tour ticket sales stats a few months ago, Kirsten and I remember reading that AI6 and AI3 had less popular tours, right?

That is true. It’s not a perfect correlation though because AI3 had worse numbers than AI6, but Fantasia still sold better than Jordin. And AI5 had the best tour numbers, but AI2 (which was almost as good), but AI2 was a monster for first week numbers. But, if you look at all those things, they do give you and indication. I think if you examine the “coronation numbers”, “tour numbers” and “ratings stability” you will start to see some correlation to first week sales numbers. (“ratings stability” is a term I just invented to consider how the show does throughout the season. Some seasons can end up with high average ratings because they did well during the auditions, but nobody was watching near the end of the show. That’s a bad indication. If the drop off is less severe (the auditions always seem the most popular), then that’s an indication that the contestants are more interesting (or the themes or more interesting or the judges or something)). The sample size is still quite small though and the market is changing so much it is tough to state anything definitively.

as Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m one of the two who at least tried to say it lol) is that we believe the calculation to reflect the difference from year to year actually was a little different from the one you used.

It’s all good, wearallinnocent. I have no problem with polite questions or corrections like yours.

Congratulations on Crush going PLATINUM! It’s still selling consistently at about 40,000/wk after what, 14 wks on the charts?

71 98 COOK*DAVID LIGHT ON 11286 -47 21127 258653

I have to run, but I find this very, very interesting. There is no way that Light on moved 11,286 units last week (see, I will defend it).

There has been much speculation as to how these singles-bundled-with-pre-orders work and I think we are seeing them treated as straight returns and effecting the weekly totals. I was led to believe that it would only effect final totals, but combined “Light On” must have sold better than that. Right?

I believe that if it had not been for returns, “Light On” would have sold better this week than last. So, I think to argue that “Light On” decreased in sales during all that promo would be a mistake.

Does every thread have to turn into a mess?

LOL! Well said, Kirsten. Woulda, coulda, shoulda are just guesses. In any given year, put X winner into Y winner’s position and, well, no one has a clue how he or she would have sold.

I wish all of this year’s crop well and congrats to both Archie and Cook.

Now ———- waiting for my Brooke White CD ——— :dry_tb:

I think extrapolating is a hobby for those who like to examine things statistically. Crunching numbers in order to examine trends is not entirely pointless at all. Thanks for those who endeavor to try to understand how things trend. Now, I’m curious about elisad’s calculation method. By calculating from different formulas, people can understand buying trends and economic variables more fully, that’s all.

“Some seasons can end up with high average ratings because they did well during the auditions, but nobody was watching near the end of the show. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a bad indication. If the drop off is less severe (the auditions always seem the most popular), then thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s an indication that the contestants are more interesting (or the themes or more interesting or the judges or something)).”

This is a good point. I think season 7′s large finale audience and record voting numbers was indicative of the popularity of the 2 David’s. The concert data also supports that idea which is why they are both doing very well in a down year. So yea!

Thanks for answering my question, Kirsten.

Not sure kristen, did people get two copies of LO?

I know with Angels being given out at preorder and when i downloaded the preordered album I got a second copy(first one was the ‘single’ version of angels, second one was the ‘deluxe album’ version of crush).

Im not sure how exactly they may have been working it.. It just could be people completeing their album here is and example of ‘complete my album’ effects:

AND ONE MORE TO SHOW IMPACT “COMPLETE MY ALBUM” CAN HAVE (SEE LAST WEEK’S SALES):
– 143 SWIFT*TAYLOR FEARLESS 7761 -150 -15668 262376

I was wondering whether the LO numbers reflected a reduction because of complete your album. Once the “second” LO on the itunes chart faded away last week, LO marched back up the itunes chart into the 40s. Of course, it’s always a little hard to say, given that itunes’ charts are not a weekly aggregation, but 11K seems a bit low for its performance last week. The other thing that occurred to me is that people who went to itunes looking for LO based on the promo might have checked out the album and decided to get it instead. Who knows?

The good news is that its AI increases may help to compensate on the Hot 100 for some of the drop in digital downloads. It would be great to see it stay on the Hot 100, although a #98 placement on the download list doesn’t bode well for that.

Ahh, I was wondering why Light On was so low. That explains it. It seems to have gone back to the 40s and 50s now.

Not sure kristen, did people get two copies of LO?

I got 2 free copies of LO when I pre-ordered the album and they actually multiply. At one point I had like 9 copies in my library. (I’ll admit to buying the song twice – once on my iPod and once on my computer, but 9 times? No way)

Congrats to Archie!

Not sure kristen, did people get two copies of LO?

I’m not sure what they got. But, I’m pretty sure that they only ended up being charged for the entire album. When they purchased the pre-order, they paid for and received LO. When the entire album was available, they would have received the album and paid (the cost of the album – 99cents). You can’t really do much with two digital copies of something, so maybe they were delivered two because it was easier that way?

Anyway, I think Light On actual single sales were higher last week and the “pre-order returns” (completing the album) reduced them. I wonder if it could ever go negative?

The other thing that occurred to me is that people who went to itunes looking for LO based on the promo might have checked out the album and decided to get it instead. Who knows?

That could very well be. I just think based on iTunes placements alone, it sold more than the numbers would reflect.

To be honest, I was hoping only the totals would be effected so that we could have done some quick math and figured out how many pre-orders the album sold. Not to prove anything, just because we can.

wow fantastic numbers for David Cook! Congratulations! Congratulations too for David Archuleta for Crush being platinum after 14 weeks from release date! Way to go Davids!

AND ONE MORE TO SHOW IMPACT à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“COMPLETE MY ALBUMà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  CAN HAVE (SEE LAST WEEKà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢S SALES):
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ 143 SWIFT*TAYLOR FEARLESS 7761 -150 -15668 262376

frogcooke, or whoever knows, how do I read Taylor Swift’s numbers? So she effectively sold negative last week due to deductions? Was Fearless the pre-order track, or just a random victim of the complete my album function?

So she effectively sold negative last week due to deductions?

I didn’t notice those lw numbers at first. So, yes, she must have sold negative last week due to “single returns” on pre-orders and/or “complete my album”.

We’ll probably also see some reductions in Magic Rainbow’s numbers—there were folks who completed their albums on itunes—which led to the amusing message, “Would you like to complete David Cook?—and when I went to DCTR to check out the user comments, it noted that I could complete the album by getting credit for both Magic Rainbow and LO.

Wow, so many numbers to absorb over breakfast! Congratulations to both Davids! What a great couple of weeks for them both. And, thanks to everyone for all of the interesting stats. Keep ‘em coming!

Congrats Cook!

Congrats Archie! Platinum Crush in 15 weeks!

Notably, a lot of songs had double-digit percentage decreases in sales this week. Strange–not sure if that has to do with the holidays coming up or not.

BTW, Crush is now Top 10 on Mediabase’s AC chart (still #11 on Billboard’s AC chart this week, but it should be #10 next week). It actually gained a couple of spins today, which is amazing considering all the songs are losing spins to holiday music. I believe on Billboard’s Hot Adult Top 40 chart, LO is #14 and Crush is #15. Mediabase has different rankings for both because they monitor different stations. Crush and LO seem to be moving up together on Hot AC, which is kind of cute.

^Thank you soundscene…btw we are friends in Davidarchuleta.com ;D

GO CRUSH!!!!!! GO DAVID (S)!!!!

frogcooke………thanks for the digital sales numbers on DA.

And, Kirsten, I’m curious where are the rest of the digital sales numbers? Did I miss the complete list of digital sales numbers for other idols that is usually here, or are they posted somewhere else on the website????

And, Kirsten, Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m curious where are the rest of the digital sales numbers? Did I miss the complete list of digital sales numbers for other idols that is usually here, or are they posted somewhere else on the website????

Sorry, Judy. I got busy with this morning’s album news and am now just having a chance to update those stats. I’ll have them in the main post soon. We will have to wait until a bit later in the day for Ken’s stats, though.

Please note that the above numbers are the Top 50 song from the download charts plus a few extra songs that have made à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“interestingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  gains in the top 200. Later today, Ken Barnes at Idol Chatter (USA Today) will come out with the full list of Idols in the top 200. We get data as it dribbles out.

Here is some of the airplay chart (this is a differential from last week so the numbers in brackets are gains or losses in millions of audience impressions since last week). Before recurrents are removed:

No. 44 – David Archuleta (-3.5 million) lw 41
No. 134 – David Cook ( 3.2 million) lw 182

2007 had a 15% decline from 2006, and 2008 is so far about 13% down (don’t quote me on that one) from the same period of 2007. That would put Cook and Archuleta with 378k and 247k, respectively, in 2006. That’s what I’d do to play the extrapolate game.

I’m sure 2008 will end with a bigger drop from 2007 than 13%, but the overall decline won’t be the 32% of this week or even the 24% of last week. Weekly numbers are easily skewed by big releases and holidays (and, lately, possibly economic crisis).

Just my two cents to the conversation.

Soundscene, those positions are from R&R? I can’t access the site here. Thanks.

Okay, so here are a few more sales decline stats for those that like them. Now, we know that the decline from the “same week” last year is 32% (although, that’s probably a bit larger than usual because of the Black Friday thing). Sales weeks can vary based on what new albums are coming out. If you get a couple of big artists moving a lot of units, that can skew the percentage differences.

A better stat to look at is the year-to-date sales which are down 12.6% according to this article from two weeks ago. Because there are more samples in the year-to-date sales stats, it removes the roller-coaster effect you get from big releases. For instance, next week may actually see an increase in sales from 2007 (due to it being Black Friday this week) and it’s not really accurate to say that for just that one week, the sales climate suddenly got better.

Another interesting bit of stats to look at is the BB report for the first three months that we talked about back in October. At that point in the year, digital track sales were up 30% while album sales were down 11.7% (so we are seeing that fourth quarter losses are dragging down those stats. The first two quarters actually only had a 11% drop). A year earlier, the drop had been 14.2% up to the third quarter. Physical albums actually saw a 17.1% during the first 9 months (less than the 18.5% drop at the same point in 2007, but more than the 16.3% in the first half of 2008)

But not all albums sales are suffering equally.
Rock: -4%
Gospel: -6.9%
New Age: -9.6%
Soundtracks: -8.5%
Country: -16.6%
Classical: -13.1%
Jazz: -13.5%
Latin: -17.8%
R&B: -18.3% (with Rap down 19.3%)

Sales of current albums (albums in the Top 200) fell 16.5%
Sales of catalogue albums (albums not in the Top 200) fell 4.5%

So, any extrapolation of the total numbers is really not accurate

ETA: Just to show you the sections of the market (298M albums sold in the first 3 quarters of 2008, 47.3M (or 15.9%) were digital (a 32% increase)):
Rock: 99.6M (33%)
Gospel: 3.9M (1%)
New Age: 1.3M (0.4%)
Soundtracks: 14.5M (5%)
Country: 30.9M (10%)
Classical: 7.9M (3%)
Jazz: 7.9M (3%)
Latin: 19.4M (7%)
R&B: 55 M (18%) (Rap 25M)
*Yes I know that doesn’t add up to 298M. Take it up with BB. I don’t think they gave us all the genres.

What was the final sales total on DA’s album for last week, not the HDD figure, but the official final figure?

75 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Declarationà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  16,176 (NEW) Total: 16,176 (NEW)
98 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Light Onà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  11,286 (-47%; lw 21,127) Total: 258,653 (71)
122 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Permanentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  8,897 (NEW) Total: 8,897 (NEW)
148 David Cook à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Come Back To Meà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  7,528 (NEW) Total: 7,528 (NEW)

Well, that’s pretty.

Judy, 182,927 for the week.

Judy –

2 ARCHULETA*DAVID DAVID ARCHULETA 182,927 999 197 183,124

Soundscene, those positions are from R&R? I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t access the site here. Thanks.

Yeah, they are from Radio & Records.

rodze and ealbino…..thanks

RS is saying 279,000 for Cook and a 64% sales decline for Archie. That puts Archie ahead of HDD’s estimation (-64% comes out to about 65.8K). We’ll see though. No solid numbers for Archie’s second week yet.

I’m not linking the article out of defiance for the terrible reporting. It’s under their news, though, if you want to look. They try to insinuate that a 64% sales decline is a “dive,” which it’s not (it’s very normal), and that Archie falling out of the top 10 indicates something bad, which it doesn’t, considering the amount of debuts last week and soundtracks still going strong. TI dropped 70% his second week. J.Hud dropped 73%. Not to mention that both Taylor Swift and T-Pain experienced almost identical percentage declines this week. But RS has never been kind to Archie, so why start now?

Actual (unrounded number) for Cook is 279,578.
I don’t have Archie’s yet

197 is the number of legal street violations on Archie’s CD in the first week. That is, legit retailers selling the album to customers before the official street date. Thankfully, it still counts towards the first week sales.

Are there any legal street violations accounted for in DC’s first week totals?

I’m trying to figure out why HDD’s final numbers sometimes differs from soundscan’s final numbers. Beyonce had a drop and so did DC on Billboard but Nickelback and Taylor Swift gained. Archie also gained 3K once soundscan numbers were in last week. Why do some lose and some gain? What is soundscan accounting for and discounting for in these cases? It’s interesting.

Basically, the HDD estimate extrapolates from 8 retailers who sell about 80% of the albums in the country to 100%. But an artist could be stronger than expected or weaker than expected in the remaining retailers who comprise the remaining 20% So, Nickelback was stronger than expected in the remaining retailers, while DC was a bit weaker and Beyonce a lot weaker than expected in the remaining retailers.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m trying to figure out why HDDà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s final numbers sometimes differs from soundscanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s final numbers. Beyonce had a drop and so did DC on Billboard but Nickelback and Taylor Swift gained. Archie also gained 3K once soundscan numbers were in last week. Why do some lose and some gain? What is soundscan accounting for and discounting for in these cases? Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interesting.

I think maybe they try to account for unknown factors–not just retailers they don’t track, but buying patterns for particular types of artists or albums. It will cause underestimations some weeks, overestimations in other weeks. They’re never going to hit it right on.

If RS is right, Archie will get another bump with the final soundscan numbers. Last week he sold well in small retail stores (he was ranked #8 under Trendsetters in Billboard’s print magazine, which ranks albums sold in notable, but smaller, music stores). Trendsetters tends to include a lot more indie or smaller selling albums, as well as some of the bigger sellers. So if HDD isn’t accounting for those smaller stores, then it seems logical Archie would get a bump.

Then again, we don’t know how well Cook sold in smaller stores, so we don’t know whether my theory really holds.

I think maybe they try to account for unknown factorsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’not just retailers they donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t track, but buying patterns for particular types of artists or albums. It will cause underestimations some weeks, overestimations in other weeks. Theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re never going to hit it right on.

I think there is some modelling going on there. BB reveals actual totals of first day sales and you can see they aren’t projecting all albums the same way. It depends on how complex their mathematical model is. If I were them, I would probably try to bin artists by past success (maybe broadly like previous album over 3M, previous album over 1M previous album over 500K, new artist) and genre (maybe R&B, Rock, Country, Pop, Other). If I was fancy, I would also factor in singles and promo. Then, I would refine it by taking my predictions and comparing it to actual numbers to get better weightings for the retailer reports. And still, the predictions would have issues because there are too many variables to model.

Kirsten- I am just curious if you have a chart showing idol singles and how they have done- not just coronation songs, but all first songs. It seems like DA’s “Crush” has done extremely well in a short period of time, but I have nothing to compare that to.

Kirsten- I am just curious if you have a chart showing idol singles and how they have done- not just coronation songs, but all first songs. It seems like DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  has done extremely well in a short period of time, but I have nothing to compare that to.

I don’t have anything right now, but I may be able to cobble something together. I have trouble getting stats earlier than season 4 (Nevada has early stats, and she would be able to answer this question in about 5 seconds). Give me a couple of days.

Idol” runner-up David Archuleta slips 2-11 with his eponymous debut.

In its second week, the album shifted 66,000(down 64%).

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¢ Of the seven albums that debuted in the top 20 on last week’s Billboard 200, the smallest decline goes to Enya’s holiday album “And Winter Came . . . ” (which steps 8-9 with 83,000 — down 10%). Taylor Swift’s “Fearless,” T-Pain’s “Thr33 Ringz” and the aforementioned “David Archuleta” all dropped by more than 63%.

^^ Where is that one from?

Ken Barnes’ rounded numbers are up for all Idols.

Oh, and yay for another 3K SoundScan bump for Archie.

soundscene – from here..

http://billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/charts/chart_alert/e3iac81cb9ace3320f8be5a577c0bd8f3ef

soundscene – you were right…he got a bump..

Judy – you’re welcome.

Very good numbers for both Davids. Archie and Clay are the only second place finishers to have a platinum single. Some unnamed 3rd,4th place finishers have also achieved this .

Thanks Kristen- I am sure you are busy, so take your time.

Digital sales
14 19 ARCHULETA*DAVID CRUSH 45845 -36 72001 1037502
30 48 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE JUST A DREAM 22219 -42 38502 407640

bonuses:
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ 75 COOK*DAVID DECLARATION 16176 999 0 16176
71 98 COOK*DAVID LIGHT ON 11286 -47 21127 258653
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ 122 COOK*DAVID PERMANENT 8897 999 0 8897
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ 148 COOK*DAVID COME BACK TO ME 7528 999 0 7528

hot 100 airplay before recurrents removed:
No. 44 – David Archuleta (-3.5 million)

No. 134 – David Cook ( 3.2 million)

Where did you find these figures? Could you provide a link?

Where did you find these figures? Could you provide a link?

They are leaked by a well-known poster on a popular music site. We do not link it here because we wish to try to help them stay under the radar so no lawyers send them any more threatening e-mails.

11 David Archuleta à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“David Archuletaà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  66k (-64%; lw 182,927) Total: 350k (2)

I’m not a mathlete or something but shouldn’t that be 250 K?

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not a mathlete or something but shouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t that be 250 K?

Oops! Transcription error (Ken’s doing the math on this one. I’m doing the typos). I’ll fix it. Thanks for letting me know.

Way to go Davids!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for all the stats Kirsten – very interesting reading.

No. 44 – David Archuleta (-3.5 million)

No. 134 – David Cook ( 3.2 million)

Why does DA have a – and DC doesn’t?

The complete list of digital sales from Ken Barnes HERE.

A mediocre week for Idols on the digital songs chart was offset somewhat by good news for David C.: He placed three tracks from his album on the top 200, along with the holdover single Light On. (The Time of My Life had no sales reported, meaning its availability was ended or sharply curtailed, and, naturally, falling off the chart.)

My guess is that that reflects completions of the album, Pam. ToML seemed to be about where it had been in terms of sales last week—even wandering up to the the upper reaches of the 100s toward the weekend. My guess is that it sold decently last week, but hit negative numbers because of “complete the album.” We’ll have to see next week, but I bet that’s what we’ll see.

Why does DA have a – and DC doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t?

DA’s audience impressions are going down because Crush is losing spins, while LO is still gaining on the charts. (Will it finally hit the Hot 100 Airplay this week once recurrents are removed?)

Isn ´t Magic Rainbows in DC ´s album as a bonus track, maybe thats the reason they remoeve it from iTunes…

I don’t see why that would be, though. As long as someone can and does buy a track, I would think it would be chartable. So, Magic Rainbow should be chart eligible, while KotN is not.

It ´s to made people buy the album if they want the song… like Archie ´s bonus track, you have to buy it if you want the three bonus tracks… and you have to preorder if you want the fourth bonus track…is just how mkt works…

Re: Ken Barne’s sales data. He reported new sales for Angels and
TMH but not ALTNOY. ALTNOY was hanging on the Pop chart longer last week than either Angels or TMH.

Celeste, but Time Of My Life is not album exclusive like the three Archie’s bonus tracks. You can buy it without buying the album and the rest of the songs. Different situations.
There are two Time Of My Lifes available (just like LO and Crush). They add the sales of both tracks, right?

Why are LO’s number so low? I’m pretty sure the song sold a lot more than that. Did they remove the LOs that came with the pre-orders from this week’s total? (I would have liked to know how much was removed, to have an idea of the number of pre-orders)

Re: Ken Barneà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales data. He reported new sales for Angels and
TMH but not ALTNOY. ALTNOY was hanging on the Pop chart longer last week than either Angels or TMH.

If you post a polite request on his blog, he will generally get the numbers for you the next week. He’s pretty good about answering requests for numbers (though, sometimes he forgets. He’s juggling that blog and another general music blog. He’s the head music editor for USA Today and he’s also busy voting for the Grammys).

Why are LOà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s number so low? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m pretty sure they song sold a lot more than that. Did they remove the LOs that came with the pre-orders from this weekà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s total?

We were speculating about that earlier. I’m pretty positive that is what happened. If you look at the top of this page’s worth of posts, you can see that one of Taylor Swift’s song actually sold negative numbers last week due to “complete my album”. The singles are treated as returns when you do that (or if the single was part of the pre-order package like Light On).

Light On must have sold more than that last week based on it’s iTunes rankings. I’m pretty sure that’s why we are not seeing numbers for Time of My Life either. TOML If is still being ranked on the iTunes chart, so it is still available for purchase (it’s on the Pop Chart). Sometimes labels will pull a song when they want to make a chart run (supress sales until the song is high enough on the airplay chart to rank high on the Hot 100), but I seriously doubt they would be trying to do that with TOML at this stage in it’s life.

Thanks Kirsten. That does make sense. And maybe I should have read all the comments… eh! Sorry for that.
Well, I was expeciting to know how much they had removed. This time I guess they won’t kill my curiosity…

Hot 100 is out:
21 23 DAVID ARCHULETA CRUSH
27 25 HUDSON*JENNIFER SPOTLIGHT-REMIXES
29 36 CARRIE UNDERWOOD JUST A DREAM
82 91 DAVID COOK LIGHT ON

BUBBLING UNDER
– 13 DAVID COOK DECLARATION

Congratulations to Archie on reaching PLATINUM status for Crush after only 15 weeks since its release. And congratulations to Cook on his impressive album sales week. :drunk_tb:

Kirsten
Nov 26th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Hot 100 is out:
BUBBLING UNDER
à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ 13 DAVID COOK DECLARATION

Kristen, are you saying Declaration would be 113 on Hot 100 if that number was possible?

I’m so sorry, I meant Kirsten. I bugs me when peeps mess up your name.

Kristen, are you saying Declaration would be 113 on Hot 100 if that number was possible?

Somewhat. The Bubbling Under Chart is meant to give a heads up for the “new” songs that are close to charting on the Hot 100. Songs that have already appeared on the Hot 100 are excluded from this chart (they are essentially “recurrent” on the Bubbling Under Chart). So, it may have not been 113 on the Hot 113 Chart, but it would probably be close.

The Bubbling Under Chart is basically a heads up to the industry. “Here! Look at this song. Consider it for a future hit”

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m so sorry, I meant Kirsten.

No problem. It’s probably from seeing that Kristen at the top of the Spoilers thread all day. If that girl gets through, I’ll just change my name. Thanks.

Thanks Kirsten!! That’s pretty cool about “Declaration” yeah!

I will have to admit that I’m one of those that believes LO may still have some legs for climbling up the chart in spite of the slow start, but it would be awesome to have two on the charts!!! If not, I’ll take “Declaration” doing its thing if that’s the next single.

Oh, don’t change your name!! There is only ONE ‘numbers’ Kirsten! LOL. Oh, and I’ll bet her she can’t create posts as humorously as you can!!

Wishful thinking….is there a textbook on these number matters? LOL…Im enjoying reading all the posts about statistics but Im not sure Im understanding every bit…lol……..you guys are impressive……..

Oh man I’m too late to add an ETA to my above post. I just reread it and want to clarify, I don’t mean your number posts are humorous Kirsten, but your other posts are! I haven’t seen one for awhile, unless you’re Percocet…;).