Idol Sales News – Week Ending 10/25/09

the leak was that the song was posted on youtube before the official release date in the U.S. the US release date was going to be 10/27. i think the change ultimately altered the marketing plan but given that this is not the kind of song Adam intends for his CD, it doesn’t hurt him that it didn’t have 100k downloads the first week. after all, kris hasn’t cracked a 100k yet either.

That’s not a leak though…it was officially released in the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Finland, etc. Therefore, it is not a leak. It was clearly going to be spread around from that point on. Also, YouTube audio quality is seriously less than perfect so if people wanted a better copy, they would have bought it. The world doesn’t exactly revolve around the USA.

Was the 27th ever actually the real, true release date? I remember seeing a ton of dates being thrown around, as I have with Allison’s single. It all just seems like a mess. I saw the 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 27th, probably a few others that I can’t remember off the top of my head. It was very confusing.

Airplay before recurrents are removed (increase in audience impressions):

No. 14 – Kelly Clarkson (+5.4 million) – lw 15
No. 22 – Carrie Underwood (+0.8 million) – lw 24
No. 262 – Kris Allen (+0.9 million) – lw 312
No. 638 – Jordin Sparks (+0.7 million) – lw unknown

16 Glee Cast ‘Sweet Caroline’  59,385 (NEW) Total: 59,385 (NEW)

Yay! Now give Puck more solos, please. Didn’t expect to find him as appealing as I did in last week’s episode, really.

21 Adam Lambert ‘Time For Miracles’  46,507 (NEW) Total: 46,507 (NEW)

I’m not involved in Adam’s career, but this is his official debut single post Idol, right? Sort of surprising. Is it on the radio?

Anticipating the questions.

The early leaks of download numbers only includes songs in the Top 50 or showing strong gains in the Top 200. We will have to wait until Brian posts his numbers on Idol Chatter before we get all the Idol download numbers.

Recurrent means songs that have been retired from the chart (either due to length or combination of length and falling ranking). Old songs/albums whatever are retired to give room for new songs. One exception is downloaded songs where songs as old as dirt can chart. Albums do not have that exception and old albums that see a surge in sales end up on the Catalogue chart.

First week numbers for recent first post-Idol singles:
1 David Archuleta ‘Crush’  166,247 (NEW) Total: 166,247 (NEW)
8 David Cook ‘Light On’  109,035 (NEW) Total: 109,035 (NEW)
93 Kris Allen ‘Live Like We’re Dying’  15,755 (NEW) Total: 15,755 (NEW) – 3 day sales week

Is it on the radio?

Not really. It got some courtesy spins.

I’m not involved in Adam’s career, but this is his official debut single post Idol, right? Sort of surprising. Is it on the radio?

No, this is the movie soundtrack song. His official single isn’t released yet. Kirsten will know better than me, but I do not think the song has been released to radio yet either.
ETA: Oh, LOL, I should have waited a couple more minutes until Kirsten answered

Jolene

I’m not involved in Adam’s career, but this is his official debut single post Idol, right? Sort of surprising. Is it on the radio?

No,it isn’t on the radio

Kirsten will know better than me, but I do not think the song has been released to radio yet either.

The song has been released so radio can play it. It has not gone for add dates yet. Add dates are typically 2-3 weeks after the song “gets out there”. Not all songs go for adds.

No, this is the movie soundtrack song. His official single isn’t released yet.

Yep. It’s his first post-Idol single and it is on his debut album, but was recorded primarily for the movie.

Puck more solos, please.

Yeah, in fact, give any guy on Glee more solos except Finn! Haha.

TFM is not his official single, and it wasn’t sent to radio. It’s for the 2012 soundtrack and apparently will be a bonus track on Adam’s album. The official single is coming but there are unconfirmed rumors about Monday?

NVM, got the answers while I was typing. Thanks everyone!

sma11ie, totally with you re: Finn.

ETA: Wow, you’re quick millionbill! It took me, like, a second and a half to delete that post. LOL. By the time I posted it I saw the Adds question had already been answered.

Jolene
October 28, 2009 at 8:58 am

Well, thanks for the answer (er, answers). Did it have an add date and not get picked up, or was it never intended as a radio single to begin with? If it’s merely treated as an iTunes single I guess it’s not comparable to other Idol debuts.

No,it doesn’t have an add date and not get picked up.I guess it was never intended as a radio single to begin with, too.

Before anybody asks, Commercial Singles are when more than one song (but less than 5…that would make it an EP) are bundled together for sale. In the past, that used to be your typical physical single with an A-side and a B-side, but now it’s usually just bundled on iTunes or something. I don’t know the story behind this Glee commercial single.

Eh, kinda disappointing for Adam but we’ll see how the next one does.

Studio57
October 28, 2009 at 9:09 am

Eh, kinda disappointing for Adam but we’ll see how the next one does.

Come on,It doesn’t get radio play.

millionbill. Oh, yeah- I know, it’s not a biggie to me really- his next song that should be out any day now is the one I am really looking forward to. Radio play does kind of matter in the first week though- it’s all bubble fans buying, but I can see people not wanting to buy TFM.

inb4 people saying Adam is a failure even though the song wasn’t sent to radio and got zero promotion outside of buzz from entertainment blogs.

was this blog down for a while?

TFM’s sales is o.k. It’s down but hanging there around #80 for a while. We’ll see how it goes in the following weeks and whether it’ll benefit from 2012 promotion.

LLWD is still lingering at 120-130ish. I wonder when the music video will be out. btw, it makes top 50 in two billboard charts.

Of course TFM was never meant for radio…it would be absolutely idiotic to send both that and his real first single to radio at the same time…they would never support two songs from a new artist at once. The fact that he was on American Idol doesn’t matter either. The only artist who is getting away with two songs being supported on radio at the same time right now is Lady Gaga. That’ll give you an idea of how huge you have to be to have two singles supported at once.

Also, TFM definitely didn’t get zero promotion. It got a freaking gigantic banner on the iTunes music page. That reaches a lot more people than simply a minuscule amount of audience impressions on radio. It was also promoted on MySpace last week, via the video release.

not bad for a song that wasn’t even promoted to radio stations. there were no interviews with Adam to promote the song. it was probably released ahead of schedule just because of the leak and now with the official first single due next week, i don’t expect to see much charting of this song until the movie is released.

21 Adam Lambert ‘Time For Miracles’  46,507 (NEW) Total: 46,507 (NEW)

I’m happy – I would have loved higher but braced myself for lower so this makes me very happy.

I don’t think there was a leak either. Just because it was released in Europe before the US doesn’t mean it was leaked. If you look at typical release dates, such as albums, Europe usually gets the music a few days before the US.

A leak implies that it reaches online before it is supposed to. This usually happens by someone with a copy of the promo CD or promo digital single who then spreads it around the web. Rarely do iTunes leaks actually happen…only with actual glitches in the store. The only case I can think of right now is the Norwegian iTunes blunder of making Kelly’s All I Ever Wanted available a month before it was released.

How long will a label promote a song that isn’t selling well before they release a new single from an album? What is the typical time frame?

the leak was that the song was posted on youtube before the official release date in the U.S. the US release date was going to be 10/27. i think the change ultimately altered the marketing plan but given that this is not the kind of song Adam intends for his CD, it doesn’t hurt him that it didn’t have 100k downloads the first week. after all, kris hasn’t cracked a 100k yet either.

How long will a label promote a song that isn’t selling well before they release a new single from an album? What is the typical time frame?

Somewhere between one week and never.

Seriously. There seem to be about a million different “strategies” for that circumstance.

It depends…are you referring to Kris’s song? I think it’s still selling quite well. It has increased a little bit in sales, which corresponds to his gradual increase on radio.

I’m not sure many people are understanding how little Kris’s song may actually be being heard right now. Yes, it has spins, but I am sure a fair percentage of them are isolated to the late hours, between 10 pm and 6 am, when audience is typically the lowest. I know I’ve only heard LLWD on the radio between midnight and 2:00.

Due to the typically compressed roll-out schedule, airplay in advance of the iTunes release (with the possible exception of “Crush,” which took off quickly after its Z100 premiere) is really never a factor in first-week sales for Idol debut singles. Whether Adam’s song eventually goes for adds and builds up airplay support or not is irrelevant to the discussion about his first week numbers.

All factors considered, T4M’s debut sales totals are less than inspiring. But like Kris’s LLWD (which now appears to be stabilizing), we just have to wait a few weeks to see what the real story is. Whether it goes for adds or not, somebody obviously has plans to promote this thing – otherwise they wouldn’t have paid a big gun like Wayne Isham to direct a big-budget music video for the single. Starting last night, the song is being played for sold-out crowds before every screening of MJ’s “This is It.” That’s going to give it an instant audience that would take weeks to build on radio. I think I’ll see what the next couple of weeks brings before making any pronouncements about the single.

Ok Am I reading things right? Kris had a ton more radio airplay in the last week but it only resulted in 210 more copies sold than the week before. Is that correct? Does that mean that airplay is holding it steady, doing what it is supposed to do by keeping it steady, or just not connecting with the audience?

Which is it? First I hear Kris is being bussed and Adam is getting the winner’s promotion. Now reading here, it’s sounding a hell of a lot different. Food for thought, Chris Daughtry’s single didn’t drop until after his CD debut. His singles took off after the fact. Adam clearly isn’t under the radar. Fanatic online fanbase doesn’t always translate in the real world.

I’ve yet to hear either of them on the radio. I do hear Lady Gaga, BEPs, Miley, Rihanna, Daughtry, etc.

I’m usually asleep between 1200 – 0200 hours and listen to radio on the internet at work. Most of the playlists are the same with the top songs repeating every hour. I do expect to hear Adam’s first single from his CD next week as I expect there to be heavy promotion from the label.

” Does that mean that airplay is holding it steady, doing what it is supposed to do by keeping it steady, or just not connecting with the audience?” — alaadam

The single is doing it’s job and it’s connecting. No worries. I believe everything is unfolding as it should. I’m pleased.

Prefacing this with a disclaimer – I bought both of these songs…just asking:

21 Adam Lambert ‘Time For Miracles’  46,507 (NEW) Total: 46,507 (NEW)
138 Kris Allen ‘Live Like We’re Dying’  10,190 (2%; lw 9,980) Total: 72,953

Why is it that we are saying Adam had disappointing numbers after 1 week with no airplay, when his download numbers are equivalent to more than 1/2 of Kris’s who has had his single on the radio and out for 4-5 weeks? Don’t we think Adam will have 70,000+ downloads in that same timeframe?

TFM’s sales is o.k. It’s down but hanging there around #80 for a while. We’ll see how it goes in the following weeks and whether it’ll benefit from 2012 promotion.

I will be shocked if it gets any boots from 2012. First off, as I knew and predicted, a new trailer for 2012 with the music, and sans MV is being shown before TII.

46,000 is about what I thought would come in for this given it’s drop and the numbers for singles on the top. And yeah, while it’s not his first real single, still it was something of a test of his fanbase and I think it proves that it’s not as strong as the David’s last year. That or the song is weaker than Crush, which I would agree with in terms of commerical viability, or even LO, which I find crushingly dull, but within a genre like Daughtry and Nickleback that can sell well.

But on the other hand the song was to me always just designed to support the film. Yes, it got an iTunes banner, with the 2012 logo on it. Yes, Adam got on shows about the MV, and song…but more like as part of the film’s promotion. Not a rush out and buy the single. And Adam didn’t do radio shows or TV to support the single or album. That is all being saved for his real single.

But still not good numbers, hope his real single does better.

Ok Am I reading things right? Kris had a ton more radio airplay in the last week but it only resulted in 210 more copies sold than the week before. Is that correct? Does that mean that airplay is holding it steady, doing what it is supposed to do by keeping it steady, or just not connecting with the audience?

Look at it this way, those 9900 people who bought it last week won’t be buying it again, so you should set his expected sales back to zero for the next week. He had an additional 900,000 audience impressions (0.9 million) for the past week, and sole 10,000. That’s a little over 1% of the audience that decided to go out and buy it. Don’t count me on this, but i think that’s usually the proportion that you see.

TFM is not his official single, and it wasn’t sent to radio. It’s for the 2012 soundtrack and apparently will be a bonus track on Adam’s album. The official single is coming but there are unconfirmed rumors about Monday?

The song was sent to radio, but most stations have decided not to play it. People said that stations would play it just because Adam is singing it, but that’s not the case.

As far as promotion goes, people have got to be kidding me, this song has received promotion. Adam was on ET talking about it, the video was on the front page of billboard.com, and Adam was on several other entertainment shows. Lack of radio play will hurt longterm sales, which is why the song is dropping at an amazing rate on itunes, its fall is much faster than LLWD, which actually showed stability. But the low sales also drive home the point that neither Adam or Kris will benefit from the same type of big AI fanbase sales that past idols enjoyed.

Starting last night, the song is being played for sold-out crowds before every screening of MJ’s ‘This is It.’  That’s going to give it an instant audience that would take weeks to build on radio.

As reported by those who went to see TII last night, only a short trailer of 2012 was shown before TII and only the last several seconds of the trailer included TFM. I won’t say that the AI from this kind of exposure exceeds the AI from a full run of the whole song on radio stations.

Yeah that was weird…I posted up there and it posted anonymously. Wasn’t sure you could do that! The site was giving me some trouble and I guess it logged me out, but I logged back in so all should be good now. Anyway, back on topic…

There shouldn’t really be a fanwar. Never any need for that. Honestly, Kris sold about 45,000 in nine days, which isn’t that much less than Adam’s 45,000 in six/seven

21 Adam Lambert ‘Time For Miracles’  46,507 (NEW) Total: 46,507 (NEW)

This is just bad, nowhere near what I expected with all the hype and apparent gigantic fanbase. The song is not OMG good, but it’s not bad either.

Kris sells are awfull, Adam is less than inspiring, Allison isn’t even on the map. This looks really bad right now. Thank god for Kelly Clarkson.

Why is it that we are saying Adam had disappointing numbers after 1 week with no airplay, when his download numbers are equivalent to more than 1/2 of Kris’s who has had his single on the radio and out for 4-5 weeks? Don’t we think Adam will have 70,000+ downloads in that same timeframe?

Only if the song receives promotion and radio play. I think people see these numbers as disappointing, because it shows that Adam’s AI fanbase is not as big as they “sound” on the internet. It also shows that despite all of the hype, and attention on other things besides his music, Adam has yet to connect with an audience that is outside of the idolfandom.

Wow, those are some underwhelming numbers from Adam. I honestly thought his core fan base was up there with David Archuleta and David Cook’s, but apparently not. Both David’s didn’t really get much radio play when their singles were released yet they still managed to sell 100K+.

Hopefully his “official single” numbers will be better. Even if they’re not, it’s not a huge deal or anything. I just figured he’d do better given he’s the most publicized and hyped contestant to ever come off the show. I wish him the best though!

Well I’m perplexed. Adam sold more then 4X what LLWD did last week and it’s disappointing? I guess I need clarification on why this is so.

LLWD is on 2 different Billboard charts this week

debuts at #31 on Adult Pop chart

debuts at #50 on Christian chart

Hmmm – I didn’t intend to post without a name. I was logged in, but it put me in as anonymous anyway. Anyhow – it’s rowenaaine here, and I posted this:

this with a disclaimer ‘“ I bought both of these songs’ ¦just asking:

21 Adam Lambert ‘Time For Miracles’  46,507 (NEW) Total: 46,507 (NEW)
138 Kris Allen ‘Live Like We’re Dying’  10,190 (2%; lw 9,980) Total: 72,953

Why is it that we are saying Adam had disappointing numbers after 1 week with no airplay, when his download numbers are equivalent to more than 1/2 of Kris’s who has had his single on the radio and out for 4-5 weeks? Don’t we think Adam will have 70,000+ downloads in that same timeframe?

Only if the song receives promotion and radio play. I think people see these numbers as disappointing, because it shows that Adam’s AI fanbase is not as big as they ‘sound’  on the internet. It also shows that despite all of the hype, and attention on other things besides his music, Adam has yet to connect with an audience that is outside of the idolfandom.

I think you can’t really say much about this considering it’s not his official single, and even he has said it isn’t the sound his album will take. It’s for a film soundtrack, it’s an old fashioned ballad, etc. Many of his own fans didn’t buy it because it isn’t the official single.

And despite the recent PR Adam has had, only a small amount was specifically about TFM (e.g. the Details PR had nothing to do with TFM). Just saying.

This is just bad, nowhere near what I expected with all the hype and apparent gigantic fanbase. The song is not OMG good, but it’s not bad either.

Kris sells are awfull, Adam is less than inspiring, Allison isn’t even on the map. This looks really bad right now. Thank god for Kelly Clarkson.

Uhhhmm…melodramatic much? Idol isn’t what it used to be, people aren’t buying how they used to, and unless you’re really big now and it’s your first single, your single is going to take time to climb up the charts. Kris’s sales are not awful, nor are Adam’s. People just had too high of expectations for Adam, especially for a song that isn’t even representative of his album.

Regarding Allison’s single, it hasn’t been released yet so you might want to wait until Tuesday when it’s released to watch it and then the next Wednesday after that to judge.

The song was sent to radio, but most stations have decided not to play it. People said that stations would play it just because Adam is singing it, but that’s not the case.

Some songs serve different purposes, and there has to be work on the part of the label to actually get the radio play. TFM is not being pushed to radios (hence no airplay) for a variety of reasons: not wanting to create confusion with Adam’s official first single, it’s main purpose is to sell a movie, not boost Adam’s album, it’s not in a current style (on purpose – a BEP or Britney song would not serve the purpose of a big budget blockbuster).

As far as promotion goes, people have got to be kidding me, this song has received promotion. Adam was on ET talking about it, the video was on the front page of billboard.com, and Adam was on several other entertainment shows. Lack of radio play will hurt longterm sales, which is why the song is dropping at an amazing rate on itunes, its fall is much faster than LLWD, which actually showed stability. But the low sales also drive home the point that neither Adam or Kris will benefit from the same type of big AI fanbase sales that past idols enjoyed.

Much of the PR he did was not related to TFM – it related to the Details spread, or AMA’s, etc. Some of it was, sure. But this single was never treated, by Adam or by the label doing the roll out, as a typical first single for an idol would be.

TFM is a bonus for us fans, but IMO it was never meant to be treated like Adam’s first single.

Many of his own fans didn’t buy it because it isn’t the official single.

I find this hard to believe. But, if it’s true, that’s kinda sad.

Uhhhmm’ ¦melodramatic much? Idol isn’t what it used to be, people aren’t buying how they used to, and unless you’re really big now and it’s your first single, your single is going to take time to climb up the charts. Kris’s sales are not awful, nor are Adam’s. People just had too high of expectations for Adam, especially for a song that isn’t even representative of his album.

First week single sales comparisons last year and this year:
David Archuleta: 160, 000
David Cook: 108, 000
Adam Lambert: 46, 000
Kris Allen: 25, 000 (full week/not sure about this one)

Based on these numbers and considering their internet fanbases, Allison will be lucky to sell 10, 000 singles.

They are not like every other new artists, they have appeared for 3 Months in the biggest tv show, they have sold less than half of what the two davids did last year.
I am not saying they are doomed as artists at all, just that this drop from one year to the other is impressive and not in a good way.

I feel we are hearing different things about the AL promo. One DJ was quoted as saying the promo for him was massive, like it was at an unprecedented level. Maybe all behind the scenes? And his promo that we have seen has been national, not at a radio station level, that I can see. It should be reaching lots of ears.

I do think this is a good measure of the more invested fans, not of total fans.

I may serve as a good example. I liked and voted a fair amount for Kris in the end, though I threw Allison some votes. I liked some of AL’s songs, but not enough to vote for him due to the weight of those songs I did not like. I had heard pre-Idol music for Kris and AL, and didn’t really like either, so I did not sign up to get an iTunes pass or to pre-order albums. I wanted to see what they put out. I didn’t like LLWD or TFM, so bought neither. However, I just heard Kris’s snippets of all his songs, and there are 4 I may very well download when available. Finally something I want to buy. I am not an invested fan of any of them, but it is based on what I perceive as unevenness of product. There is too much I don’t like, but some I do.

Yikes, Adam’s and Kris’ numbers sucked.

Many of his own fans didn’t buy it because it isn’t the official single.

After eight seasons of watching post-Idol buying behavior, I don’t buy that for a second. But if it’s true, it just shifts the expectations forward to Adam’s “real” debut single, right? So fans didn’t buy NoBo because it wasn’t really Adam’s song. And they didn’t buy “Want” because that wasn’t really his single either. Now, despite all the giddy anticipation and Oscar talk and epic music video squee, they also chose not to buy Time For Miracles because they are waiting for his actual real no-bones-about-it first single? OK. I sure hope for Adam’s sake the fans don’t decide to wait for the one after that.

Many of his own fans didn’t buy it because it isn’t the official single.

I’m sorry, but I’m also of the opinion who doesn’t buy this excuse.

Maybe I’m wrong though. We’ll see once the numbers for his “official single” come out.

Just saw ‘This Is It’ and the 2012 trailer. I was waiting for TFM but totally missed it.

Speaking as someone who lives beneath the poverty line: $1.29 x 2 equals a loaf of bread at the Grocery Outlet. Just sayin’ peeps.

Jazzrocks, Kris’s numbers are for a few weeks after the debut, and there is usually some falloff. I think the closest valid comparison is the one someone made above, comparing Kris’s 9 day sales (debut was on a Friday, so adding the first 2 ‘weeks’) to AL’s 6 or 7 day sales. Yes, it does give Kris a bit of an advantage, but I think it reveals a truer picture that they are comparable.

I have to also weigh in that after hearing Kris’s snippets, I’d say LLWD is not the typical sound of his album, either. It is one of my two least favorite tracks I heard.

For those of you showing as Anonymous – I see there is now a place you have to enter your name and email in order for it to show up. On my second post today, it prefilled it, but I had to enter it the first time.

I bought it, I love it ‘“ but it isn’t in his style ‘“ deliberately so ‘“ it’s for a movie, not for him. So it makes perfect sense for a lot of fans to not purchase it based on that fact.

I think you misunderstood me. I always assumed that the most hardcore of fans would have bought anything their favorite put out, regardless of whether its his first “official” single or not. This is an official single for sure. It’s not like “Want.” I guess I assumed most of his fans would just buy it anyway because it’s new music from him. Maybe I was letting the extreme vocal activity from the Glamberts fool me into thinking he had a fanbase that would come out in droves to buy the song. I can understand if people wouldn’t want to buy it. My original statement wasn’t meant to be very serious.

First week single sales comparisons last year and this year:
David Archuleta: 160, 000
David Cook: 108, 000
Adam Lambert: 46, 000
Kris Allen: 25, 000 (full week/not sure about this one)

Based on these numbers and considering their internet fanbases, Allison will be lucky to sell 10, 000 singles.

They are not like every other new artists, they have appeared for 3 Months in the biggest tv show, they have sold less than half of what the two davids did last year.
I am not saying they are doomed as artists at all, just that this drop from one year to the other is impressive and not in a good way.

But since then the economy has seen quite a decrease, people are still hesitant to spend money. Sure, it’s only a $1.29 single, but overall I think people have decided to cut back wherever they can and an easy good to cut out of their lives is buying a single ahead of time if you definitely plan on buying the album as it is. Internet fanbases are also not a good indicator of how much they will actually sell.

They may have appeared on the biggest TV show, but that biggest TV show is also seeing declining ratings, and people are seeming to not care as much about it anymore. It also doesn’t change the fact that they are new artists, and their songs will perform on the merits of how good it is, not only because of name recognition.

I also think Adam and Kris’s fanbases’ average ages are a little bit older than that of Archie’s, and could account for a small portion of the difference between their sales.

“For those of you showing as Anonymous ‘“ I see there is now a place you have to enter your name and email in order for it to show up. On my second post today, it prefilled it, but I had to enter it the first time.”

Thanks.

So it makes perfect sense for a lot of fans to not purchase it based on that fact.

With all due respect, I don’t think it makes any kind of sense at all. At this point in the Idol game, the hardcore fans are usually buying anything their artist puts out. They’re not waiting. The reason behind the core base of fans buying whatever their artist puts out is to support his/her overall career and help make it possible for their artist to keep making music. That’s why if there were any Archie fans who didn’t like Crush, most of those fans probably bought it anyway. Ditto Cook and LO. At the time, the reasoning of the fans was, “Okay, I may not love this one song, but I really really want this guy to be around on the music scene for a long time so he has a chance to develop into the musician he wants to be. So I’ll buy this to support that goal.” It’s a generous act on the part of fans and an act of support and gratitude directed toward the artist. The fans put aside their own individual taste for the time being in order to support their artist during the tricky first months after Idol. A lot of Adam’s fans aren’t willing to do that?

Honestly, I don’t understand this “waiting” business. It’s so odd that I, too, find it hard to believe.

Wow, those are anemic sales for both the AI8 Winner and AI8 Runner Up.

The Davids totally pwnd Kradam. Totally outsold both. No question.

Wow, those are anemic sales for both the AI8 Winner and AI8 Runner Up.

The Davids totally pwnd Kradam. Totally outsold both. No question.

I agree. I think the problem might be that Kris and Adam both have fans, but not as many are invested in their careers as the two David’s fans were. The intense dedication across the entire fan base just doesn’t seem to be there. Yes, Adam has a huge on-line presence but they don’t seem to feel the need to put their money where their mouths (or fingers) are.

I’m still not buying the economy excuse when single sales are at an all time high. Didn’t Adam fans raise a ton of money for charity? The economy didnt seem to be an issue there. IMO not buying something your favorite artist puts out because its not a REAL first single isn’t right. It’s still support of your favorite.

Many of his own fans didn’t buy it because it isn’t the official single.

Umm … maybe some of us are waiting, hoping that the video will be available? I’d much rather have the video than just the audio …

What is with this site MJ? Upgrade or what?

Considering Adam’s TFM is not his own single from his album but a bonus I think Adam did very well.

It’s his first single that will demonstrate whether he has fans outside AI.

Oh yeah. Does this include sales of the 2012 soundtrack?

Oh yeah. Does this include sales of the 2012 soundtrack?

Probably not, but I don’t think they count the number of albums sold into the single sales number for any artist.

Umm ‘ ¦ maybe some of us are waiting, hoping that the video will be available? I’d much rather have the video than just the audio ‘ ¦

I suppose the above logic could be accurate, since it will be on video fans are waiting for that. But…..

I wonder if Archie fans thought the same way, since Crush had a video coming out and was also going to be a track on the album. Did Cook fans do the same? Did they wait for the Light On video? Or, maybe they waited until they could get the song with the album. Hey, better yet. They didn’t have to download the song or the album. They could get it with the I-pod application program which gave them the “lighter”.

Or maybe, Adam’s fans spent all their money buying the “Details” magazine and are saving up to buy it this week? Adam could have fans who are more interested in him rather than what he sings or his music. Heh.

I was thinking 50K-70K for first week sales of TfM. Must admist that I’m rather suprised that he didn’t sell more than 50K though.

I’m still not buying the economy excuse when single sales are at an all time high. Didn’t Adam fans raise a ton of money for charity? The economy didnt seem to be an issue there. IMO not buying something your favorite artist puts out because its not a REAL first single isn’t right. It’s still support of your favorite.

All I have to do is quote another post:

Speaking as someone who lives beneath the poverty line: $1.29 x 2 equals a loaf of bread at the Grocery Outlet. Just sayin’ peeps.

Charity is a different story, too. People value giving to the less fortunate because humans have empathy, and it makes them feel like they helped out a bit. You can’t compare it to buying singles.

I would be very interested in sales for the music video of T4M, if it is ever released.

Already Gone’s numbers look really good. I’m glad this one is selling well. I’m one of the few people who also really liked IDNHU and I’m sad that one fizzled.

I hope Jordin’s SOS downloads # leaks later. I like that song way more than Battlefield, so I hope it takes off.

It sounds like Adam has very picky, selective fans if they are waiting for a certain kind of single before they buy his music. Whichever “Anonymous” above said that some people bought LO to support DC, even though they didn’t like it and it wasn’t representative of the album’s sound, is correct. I was one of those people. It does suggest that Adam’s hardcore fanbase either isn’t all that hardcore, or isn’t as big as the Davids’, or both. I don’t think anyone ever thought that Kris’ was as big or hardcore. Adam is the one with all of the media attention and widespread predictions of his greatness.

I was going to do an edit to my post, but that function doesn’t seem to be working yet. After reading my post, I thought is sounded a little too sarcastic. Oh, well, sorry to all, blame it on the lack of caffeine.

Maybe part of the reason for Kris and Adam’s “less than expected” sales so far is the age of the show. People that have been watching for many seasons have “been there, done that” as a hyper-invested fan. They’re being more selective in their music buying and only buying what strikes them. Those who just got turned onto the show as a result of Adam, or Kris, or Alison etc. are the ones buying the singles regardless of how they feel about them.

I appreciate that discretionary spending is down across the board given these economic climes. However, how does one explain Carrie’s downloads or Jordin’s?

And if Adam’s fanbase will not spend $1.29 by a single that was endorsed by him, then what will happen when his album drops? Because $9.99 could certainly buy a whole lot of bread?

Sorry, that was me above, with the post starting, “With all due respect.”

Trina
at 4:48 pm
I’m still not buying the economy excuse when single sales are at an all time high. Didn’t Adam fans raise a ton of money for charity? The economy didnt seem to be an issue there. IMO not buying something your favorite artist puts out because its not a REAL first single isn’t right. It’s still support of your favorite.

I’ve been saving for three months to buy my daughter an ipod (she still has the orginal shuffle –no video ) and a bike for my son for Christmas.

I have no extra money this year to buy singles. One album/CD this holiday for me. A gift from my daughter and son. “For Your Entertainment”.

Have fun guys, gotta get back to work.

21 Adam Lambert ‘Time For Miracles’  46,507 (NEW) Total: 46,507 (NEW)

I’m happy ‘“ I would have loved higher but braced myself for lower so this makes me very happy.

Don’t we think Adam will have 70,000+ downloads in that same timeframe?

‘This is It.’  That’s going to give it an instant audience that would take weeks to build on radio.

I happy with the TFM sales numbers and expect larger numbers in the week’s to come.

Did some posters say the music was NOT on the trailer leading into TII? Huh?

SOMEONE PLEASE CONFIRM does the 2012 trailer shown before This Is It have the music video, partial music video, just movie w/some music or just movie?

I was thinking 50K-70K for first week sales of TfM. Must admist that I’m rather suprised that he didn’t sell more than 50K though.

Yeah me too. I honestly thought this would be in the 60-70K range.

The hardcore fanbase are the people who buy anything that artists puts out. No question. It works that way outside the “Idol bubble” too. So the fact it is a soundtrack song is not an issue here IMO. The hardcore fans knew it was out and if online comments are to be believed, overwhelmingly loved it. So they should have been the ones buying it. This number, combined with the ITunes sales right after the show, should tell us what buying power there is within Adam’s core.

Now all the idols have “softer” fanbases too – people who know who they are, like them, and will buy fairly quickly if they like the song. If Adam puts out a first single that connects with those people, he should be able to come in higher next round.

But really, I thought he was at least within range of the Davids. I’m not so sure anymore. Its not looking like that is the case.

But he (and Kris) may end up connecting with a wider audience better than the Davids. So we’ll have to see where it all shakes out over the next 6-8 months.

I am not for a minute buying that Adam’s fans aren’t buying TFM because it isn’t the “right song”. They are hard core fans.

I am a HUGE Kris fan and will buy anything he puts out. Period.

I love Adam’s music but will wait for the CD. I don’t buy singles from my favorite artists. There are plenty of people who are not shy about spending $10-$14 for a CD. I do it for Mary J Blige, Fantasia, Rueben and Jennifer Hudson. While I don’t love every song, I find that I usually discover a couple great songs that I personally love that won’t make the radio.

YMMV…

This is why one needs to break away from THE IDOL BUBBLE and appeal to the outside music buyers. All these numbers show that idol fanbase doesn’t matter afterall and I believe Kris and Adam both know that.
When I saw Jive put the LLWD banner on all access with Kris’ 2weeks (10 days) sales of 40,000 with pride, I realised it was not bad in their books otherwise they wouldn’t have put it on there.
After that, I saw another artist who is not even new also put up a banner there with sales of 36,000. She was ahead of Kris on itunes as at that time and had her single out a month earlier than Kris. There and then, I felt relieved.
Why am I saying all this? It’s only in idoldome that we are expecting these huge numbers from our favourites. It doesn’t work like that in the real world, at least not anymore. The music business have changed.So until both of these guys put out an album that is good enough to pull in new fans, it’s going to be like this.
I don’t see their numbers as disappointing at all, the labels know best than we do, IMO.

I am not for a minute buying that Adam’s fans aren’t buying TFM because it isn’t the ‘right song’ . They are hard core fans.

I am a HUGE Kris fan and will buy anything he puts out. Period.

It sounds like Adam has very picky, selective fans if they are waiting for a certain kind of single before they buy his music. Whichever ‘Anonymous’  above said that some people bought LO to support DC, even though they didn’t like it and it wasn’t representative of the album’s sound, is correct. I was one of those people. It does suggest that Adam’s hardcore fanbase either isn’t all that hardcore, or isn’t as big as the Davids’, or both.

Okay, I’ll play devil’s advocate for a sec. I am, by my own definition, a “hardcore David Cook fan”. I followed his every move, tour youtube, promo event/article leading up to his album release. BUT, I didn’t buy Light On the first week. That’s just something I never do– buy the lead-off single for an album I know I’ll buy. It’s cuz on iTunes, lead-off singles are labeled as their own album, rather than being an album track (makes sense, the album doesn’t exist yet when the lead-off single is released). So if you buy the first single before an album is posted on iTunes, you can’t “complete the album” and save yourself the $1.29, or $.99. I knew I was buying DC’s album, so I waited until the album was posted. And as I predicted, LO was immediately downloaded when you preorder, so I got it that way. I mean, I’ll spend my money supporting DC’s music, merch, concerts, charities, but I just don’t like to pay twice for something. Call me crazy. I dunno, TFM was announced as being part of Adam’s album before it dropped on iTunes, so maybe the economy is affecting folks, and people aren’t spending money on a single they’ll get free as a bonus track on Adam’s album? Okay, so I don’t really believe that accounts for the low sales entirely, but just putting it out there. Oh, and I’m a super bad DC fan, cuz I also never bought TOML, even though there was a good chance that summer it wouldn’t be in the album (DC had alluded all summer that it wouldn’t be included in the album if it didn’t fit). I just didn’t care for it enough to buy it to “show support”. I was happy it was doing well without my help though. I guess I’m pretty “selective” with the music I buy. Yes, I’m using selective as a euphemism for “cheap” .

jersey
10/28/2009 at 4:59 pm

Maybe part of the reason for Kris and Adam’s ‘less than expected’  sales so far is the age of the show. People that have been watching for many seasons have ‘been there, done that’  as a hyper-invested fan. They’re being more selective in their music buying and only buying what strikes them. Those who just got turned onto the show as a result of Adam, or Kris, or Alison etc. are the ones buying the singles regardless of how they feel about them.

I don’t know that the age of the show is the case. I watched seasons 2,3,4,6,7, and 8. I didn’t feel inspired to buy any music let alone vote (except for a handful of times for Ruben) until season 7.

So lets compare Kris’s 9 day to Adams first full week.

Kris- 40,000
Adam- 46,500

Pretty close.

Ooh, excellent! The font got big enough for my poor tired eyes to read it. Hee!

I’m surprised those numbers for Adam aren’t higher, but it really may be that they are starting off with a smaller invested fanbase than the Davids did last year. If their music is good enough and gets on the radio? That may end up a good thing for them because they have to get ears outside the Idol bubble. We’ll see how things shake out down the line. Album releases are gonna be interesting! So different to view this whole thing neutrally rather than my terrible angst last year with David C. I must say that this is WAY easier on the old nerves. I really wish both of these guys (and Allison who I just love) great success, I just am not chewing off my fingernails in anticipation this time

Another factor in low sales for all artists is that you can go on youtube or some other web site and listen to the song. I don’t own an ipod and I don’t do downloads…I buy actual CD’s. The exception is that I downloaded Adam’s AI CD but after the show was over.

Folks, don’t be so invested in the other guy’s perceived failure…whether you’re a fan of Kris or Adam.

I don’t see anything cited yet that is a difference from this year to last. Some people last year didn’t buy LO or Crush because they were waiting for the album; some didn’t like it; some are not downloaders or can get to YouTubes. I keep seeing news that the economy is supposed to be doing better, and singles sales are way up. Try telling Taylor Swift or Carrie Underwood that people won’t buy more than one single at the same time.

First week single sales comparisons last year and this year:
David Archuleta: 160, 000
David Cook: 108, 000
Adam Lambert: TBD
Kris Allen: 25, 000 (full week/not sure about this one)

Corrected.

I have yet to hear a single valid argument from anyone that would persuade me that TfM should be included among the list of first singles. Eight spins does not a first single make, and besides that it doesn’t represent his music and was never promoted by him.

Entertainment will be released shortly. Let’s talk then.

Sales are not a fanbase issue, they are an exposure issue. TFM has no radio play. Why would it sell to anyone outside of the fanbase? Unless and until it gets some mainstream exposure the well will remain quite dry. After the first couple of weeks all of the fanbase sales will have subsided.

Allison has all of what a dozen or two spins and her song is her first single?

I am not for a minute buying that Adam’s fans aren’t buying TFM because it isn’t the ‘right song’ . They are hard core fans.

I am a HUGE Kris fan and will buy anything he puts out. Period.

It sounds like Adam has very picky, selective fans if they are waiting for a certain kind of single before they buy his music. Whichever ‘Anonymous’  above said that some people bought LO to support DC, even though they didn’t like it and it wasn’t representative of the album’s sound, is correct. I was one of those people. It does suggest that Adam’s hardcore fanbase either isn’t all that hardcore, or isn’t as big as the Davids’, or both.

Well, actually, I recall some Kris fans saying the same thing about LLWD — not buying it because they are hoping they’d like the other music better.

I think both guys have both kinds of fans — the “I’ll buy it all” kind and the “hm…I’ll wait and see on this song” ones.

Neither fan group appears to be as big or as hardcore as either of the David’s fan groups last year. But the show’s ratings were down this year, too, weren’t they?

Really, every Idol seems to sell — or not sell! — a bit differently, both at the beginning and over the long term. We’ll just have to see with these guys. If I were betting, I’d bet on Adam doing quite well with some singles and having pretty solid worldwide sales and Kris doing well with his album, primarily stateside, but not having more than one single or so that’s a big hit, if that. … I don’t expect either of them to be Daughtry. He and Carrie and even Kelly just hit some market sweet spots that Kris and Adam don’t. Although I can still see Adam racking up some impressive worldwide sales if his music is actually good.

testing testing. I’ve tried to post twice and each time my post is lost saying I am not logged in.

I am, by my own definition, a ‘hardcore David Cook fan’ . I followed his every move, tour youtube, promo event/article leading up to his album release. BUT, I didn’t buy Light On the first week. That’s just something I never do’“ buy the lead-off single for an album I know I’ll buy. It’s cuz on iTunes, lead-off singles are labeled as their own album, rather than being an album track (makes sense, the album doesn’t exist yet when the lead-off single is released). So if you buy the first single before an album is posted on iTunes, you can’t ‘complete the album’  and save yourself the $1.29, or $.99.

Um, not so sure about this? I am far from an iTunes expert, but I did buy Light On and I was able to “complete my album” when DCTR was released. Also, I seem to recall MUCH discussion here at MJs about whether those “complete my album” purchases were then deducted from sales totals for the single.

In any case, it seems pretty clear that Adam and Kris are both starting with smaller dedicated fanbases, willing to shell out for whatever music they release, than the Davids did last year. In the long run, I don’t know if that will matter all that much. The important thing for both guys’ success is being able to sell music outside the AI bubble, and I would agree with those that have said it’s far too early to tell at this point. It will interesting to see how it plays out. And yes, I so remember chewing my fingers off over this stuff last year! Sympathies to those on pins and needles for the AI8 peeps.

I have yet to hear a single valid argument from anyone that would persuade me that TfM should be included among the list of first singles. Eight spins does not a first single make, and besides that it doesn’t represent his music and was never promoted by him.

It’s Adam singing, that’s enough for me. He promoted it, he talked about it in interviews and twittered. I didn’t know there was a number of radio spins required to be considered a single, I thought it just needed to be released and the banner on itunes was big promotion too.

I don’t buy the “it’s not his music” argument, Adam has always been about singing all kinds of genre, his album is supposed to be a melting pot of styles of music.

Maybee his other single will be a radio megahit, but I don’t think we will see an enormous difference between the first week sales. First week has always been about the fanbase.

ETA: from wiki

In music, a single is a short recording of one or more separate tracks. This can be released for sale to the public in a variety of different formats.

‘Sales are not a fanbase issue, they are an exposure issue. TFM has no radio play.”

you do realize exposure is more than a radio thing right? Its not like there wasnt an ad on itunes, its not like he wasnt shown on ET twice, its not like it was all over blogs, its notlike I didnt see a big giant ad on billboard.com and other places… its not like people werent talking about it, its not like its not in a movie or something…

nope, not seeing the exposure here… I could be wrong though..

I think 46,000 Glamberts did buy TFM. My guess is the people who didn’t like his tone in RS, didn’t like his pictures in Details, didn’t like the name of his album, didn’t like the cover, didn’t like his outfit at the Red Carpet last night didn’t bother to buy it and btw these people still consider themselves fans of his.

Yeah I agree, exposure comes in many different shapes and forms, and clearly the exposure on TFM wasn’t enough or targeted correctly to gain the interest of anyone outside of the fanbase. Radio is still one key portion to gain exposure and that clearly has not taken off.

I agree. I think the problem might be that Kris and Adam both have fans, but not as many are invested in their careers as the two David’s fans were. The intense dedication across the entire fan base just doesn’t seem to be there. Yes, Adam has a huge on-line presence but they don’t seem to feel the need to put their money where their mouths (or fingers) are.

couple of quick points while I am at work.

I believe the Davids were lightening in a bottle. I don’t think you will see that again, for a couple of reasons. First of all, both of them were expected to make the finals early on. The love affair the fans had for these two Davids started early and grew as the season went on. Secondly, the viewership was up due to the writers’ strike and there was no competition for S7 in regard to television viewing. More viewers, more invested fans. Thirdly, the economy does play into it a bit, but even if you knock off 20 percent from the Davids first week numbers, the still sell more than Kris and Adam.

This year, it was suspected that Adam would make it in the finals, but probably not win because he. is. polarizing. The second slot was supposed to be Danny, if not him, then it was a three way tie for between Allison, Kris and Matt in that order (for me). I think if Danny had won, his first single would have sold more than Kris’s. JMHO.

I am surpised Kris didn’t sell more since he won and supposedly by a landslide. The only conclusion I can draw is that Kris’s fans are made up primarily of tv viewers where Adam’s fans are made up more of music consumers. I believe music consumers are not going to buy a single if they don’t like it just to support Adam’s career. I also supsect TFM is not that popular with the under 30 crowd. It’s still early days for TFM and LLWD. TFM more so since the film it was written for hasn’t even been released yet.

It’s Adam singing, that’s enough for me. He promoted it, he talked about it in interviews and twittered. I didn’t know there was a number of radio spins required to be considered a single, I thought it just needed to be released and the banner on itunes was big promotion too.

But, if you seriously compare how TFM was rolled out compared to LO or Crush last year (or LLWD) – it really isn’t the same situation. Looking at the WHOLE picture, and how the single was treated in each case, specifically by the label and how they wanted to promote it, makes it abundantly clear that TFM was never treated as a first single would be. His fans knew this too. Many of us considered it a “bonus” Adam offering, but not at all his first single.

And no matter how much or little an idol fanbase has played into the success of each of these songs off the bat, I still maintain they’re not comparable considering that TFM was released in an entirely different manner, for a different purpose (selling the movie, not Adam). That’s what it comes down to imo.

Initial sales are a fanbase issue. I think that’s the point. Neither Adam or Kris seem to have the dedicated fan base that past idols have had. I think that’s all that people are saying.

The obvious conclusion, based on last weeks sales and comparing them to the opening sales for Season 7, is that Season 8 of American Idol was such that none of the Idols were able to develop and hold a fanbase. Neither Kris nor Adam seem to appeal to people, and the tour sales were just based on the typical AI fan doing the traditional thing each summer…hasn’t the tour been loosing viewership every year? (correct me if I am wrong).

I am very pleased for the fans of season 7 idols. Their “guys” are still the Kings of the Hill and it doesn’t look like anyone will be matching the great numbers they were able to generate last year.

On a bright note we know that Kris has pocketed about $5k for his sales and Adam $4k….so they can both pay for their rent out of these sales. Hurrah…not bad in this time of economic woe.

Yikes! my post in response to another post got posted WAY upthread, LOL.

you do realize exposure is more than a radio thing right? Its not like there wasnt an ad on itunes, its not like he wasnt shown on ET twice, its not like it was all over blogs, its notlike I didnt see a big giant ad on billboard.com and other places’ ¦ its not like people werent talking about it, its not like its not in a movie or something’ ¦

What kind of first-week promotion did Kris get for his single? I remember the Z100 and Ryan Seacrest interviews and some radio promos. MV is not even out yet.

Are anyone else’s posts being posted in reverse?

I am an Adam fan from Denmark and I would just like to share my view if allowed this once by the administrator.
The thing is, you comparing his sales to those of the davids, have you guys been honest enough to aknowledge the fact that unlike the davids, Adam’s single was released internationally therefore limiting the itunes gifting tradition or idol fans? And I thot he charted in some other countries?

Um, not so sure about this? I am far from an iTunes expert, but I did buy Light On and I was able to ‘complete my album’  when DCTR was released. Also, I seem to recall MUCH discussion here at MJs about whether those ‘complete my album’  purchases were then deducted from sales totals for the single.

I think DC’s album was listed for preorder a couple weeks after LO went for sale, and when you preorder, they automatically charge you for the single and you get it right away. But if you bought LO before the preorder was set up, most of the time, you don’t get the “Complete the album” option. LO continued to sell both as a single and as part of the album preorder after the album was listed, and each time that happened, the sale of the single was counted. When the album dropped and the preorders were filled, the LO singles sold from the preorders were deducted from its total. If, after the album dropped, and people who bought LO after the preorder was posted completed their albums, those singles are also deducted.

I’m not 100% sure that you can’t ever use the complete your album function if you buy a lead-off single before the album preorder is listed, but it’s happened to me in the distant past a couple times, which is why I stopped buying lead-off singles before the album is posted. But I dunno, I may be wrong about how DC’s album and LO worked on iTunes.

Tess, I believe this season’s tour did just as well as last year’s, which is remarkable in this economy.

In other news, not a fan of the backwards comments. What are we, DCO? Hate.reading.backwards…

Are anyone else’s posts being posted in reverse?

yes, I’m confused. Plus my post wouldn’t post twice…

jersey, I think is in reverse for everyone.

Tess, are you trying to be sarcastic? Because either way you are missing the point. No one is calling Kradam failures or predicting they won’t have careers. People are predicting they won’t open as strong as the guys from last year. Big fucking whoop. They may, however, end up ahead of the guys from last year. They jury is still out.

There is a big contradiction here between the rhetoric all summer and the realty now unfolding, so it is gonna get commented on. I don’t know if you can reduce all opinions down to some kind of fan turf war. I don’t think that’s fair to anyone posting their opinion. My apologies if I am misreading your post.

carol522
10/28/2009 at 1:54 pm

Another factor in low sales for all artists is that you can go on youtube or some other web site and listen to the song. I don’t own an ipod and I don’t do downloads’ ¦I buy actual CD’s. The exception is that I downloaded Adam’s AI CD but after the show was over.

Folks, don’t be so invested in the other guy’s perceived failure’ ¦whether you’re a fan of Kris or Adam.

I don’t own an iPod either. I will download singles from Amazon on occasion (well actually only David Cook’s). Other than that, I buy CD’s. I still downloaded TOML and LO last year because I didn’t want to wait for the album to come out…and I wanted to support my Idol.

As someone pretty much outside the AI bubble, for me Kris coronation song NOBO did not do to well on radio, usually coronation songs get played to death pretty much the whole summer long carrying it to their album release date, so Kris was not stuck on people’s brain at all. As for Adam T4M, yes you would think all the hype would tell you something but that is all in the internet world. People I know who are not invested in AI only saw Adam on ET. They were all like hey that guy from AI was on ET, he was great when is his album coming out? T4M had pretty good promotion online but noway even made a dent in the real world. Without radio play it will not go any further until the movie comes out. Does these numbers include the Amazon mp3 T4M numbers and all the people who actually brought the whole soundtrack
which came out first and people could not wait for the single. That soundtrack on Amazon jumped pretty quickly when it got released. For some reason both this year AI Idol fans don’t feel the need to buy to buy a zillion singles at one time. And to go back to Adam, everyone and their mothers that I know and that is pretty much a lot really can not wait for Adam’s CD to come out. My sister and aunt who are high school teachers are telling me that the kids are counting the days when Adams CD comes out, they don’t know a day that goes by where Adams name is not bought up in class, so I don’t know I think once Adam gets out there I think this guy is going to blow up big.

But, if you seriously compare how TFM was rolled out compared to LO or Crush last year (or LLWD) ‘“ it really isn’t the same situation. Looking at the WHOLE picture, and how the single was treated in each case, specifically by the label and how they wanted to promote it, makes it abundantly clear that TFM was never treated as a first single would be. His fans knew this too. Many of us considered it a ‘bonus’  Adam offering, but not at all his first single.

And no matter how much or little an idol fanbase has played into the success of each of these songs off the bat, I still maintain they’re not comparable considering that TFM was released in an entirely different manner, for a different purpose (selling the movie, not Adam). That’s what it comes down to imo.

If you want to ignore those numbers because TFM was not the “true single”, then what numbers do you expect for “Entertainment”?

The only thing I am saying is that based on TFM sales, we should lower the expectations for the first week sales of his other single too because it’s a matter of size of the fanbase and his is smaller than either of the Davids last year.

I am not predicting failure for Adam at all, he has still a good shot at getting mainstream success if TFM or his other single become hits. As someone else said before, the fanbase is not what will ultimately make or break his music.

Um, not so sure about this? I am far from an iTunes expert, but I did buy Light On and I was able to ‘complete my album’  when DCTR was released.

That’s true. However, I believe it only worked for the album version of the single and not for the “single” version” of the single which is treated like its own little album. Nevertheless, I think it’s premature for any concerns or comparisons. Adam has had massive promotion, but it’s the kind of promotion that sells the image rather than his song. His sales won’t benefit from the buzz until the songs start to get promoted. Jordin has already proven that you don’t need to start off very strong to be successful. As for Kris, his numbers are very low but I’m betting that the songs on his album will be good. I don’t think that he’s the most exciting live performer, but he has good musical instincts.

No, I wasn’t really being sarcastic. Based on these sales neither Kris or Adam has developed the kind of fan base that is apparently required for AI contestants to to do well after Idol. It seems to be a broadly held idea that the AI fanbase is the one that generates interest in the Idols…and that their support eventually brings others into the camp.

I would like to believe that there have been different sets of circumstances, every year, for the Idols and their record sales, whether it be timing or radio play or “the non-idol competition they face any given week, or the quality of the music, or the economic situation and how it affects consumers. But this seems to be an opinion that doesn’t hold water. Sales numbers are just compared across the board, 1 to 1.

sweetni4
10/28/2009 at 2:36 pm

As someone pretty much outside the AI bubble, for me Kris coronation song NOBO did not do to well on radio, usually coronation songs get played to death pretty much the whole summer long carrying it to their album release date, so Kris was not stuck on people’s brain at all.

That’s actually not true. To see how coronation songs did on the radio, look at http://www.scribd.com/full/11441393?access_key=key-97iinme2ztwd0ls7qsn (courtesy of the lovely LadyMadonna). Only Kelly and Cook charted for 4 months or longer.

Based on these sales neither Kris or Adam has developed the kind of fan base that is apparently required for AI contestants to to do well after Idol. It seems to be a broadly held idea that the AI fanbase is the one that generates interest in the Idols’ ¦and that their support eventually brings others into the camp.

I’ve never heard anyone say that Tess. In fact, all I’ve heard over and over is people say the fanbase drives sales for a few weeks and then they have to get fans outside of idol. I have never heard anyone say that idol fans bring in new fans.

SOMEONE PLEASE CONFIRM does the 2012 trailer shown before This Is It have the music video, partial music video, just movie w/some music or just movie?

Last night it was just a new, extended trailer with TfM music, no MV parts in it at all. It was the one that was on a Japanese site a few days before the premiere which said it would be the trailer for TII. And lo and behold it was. Which is the trailer I was referring to a few days ago when the discussion about whether the MV would also be played came up.

So as I said days ago, don’t expect a bump for TfM from 2012. And these numbers for Adam suck, the numbers for Kris also suck, but doesn’t make Adam’s numbers less bad. Adam better hope his first real single does well outside his base, because clearly his base isn’t big or rabid enough to make him successful.

First of all, both of them were expected to make the finals early on. The love affair the fans had for these two Davids started early and grew as the season went on. Secondly, the viewership was up due to the writers’ strike and there was no competition for S7 in regard to television viewing. More viewers, more invested fans.

The love affair with Adam started early on too, more than it did for Cook.
This is a bit off topic, but I keep reading that about the rating, and if I’m not mistaken, season 7 ratings were lower than season 6, they didn’t go up. The finale episode had more viewers than the season 6 finale though, which didn’t happen with season 8. I guess people were indeed more invested in the Davids.

you do realize exposure is more than a radio thing right? Its not like there wasnt an ad on itunes, its not like he wasnt shown on ET twice, its not like it was all over blogs, its notlike I didnt see a big giant ad on billboard.com and other places’ ¦ its not like people werent talking about it, its not like its not in a movie or something’ ¦

nope, not seeing the exposure here’ ¦ I could be wrong though..

Exactly.
Radio airplay isn’t really that important for first week sales when we’re talking idols (and other established artists).

I could be wrong, but I think Adam’s real single will see better numbers, neverthless, I expected a bit more for this one. I guess we keep reading how Adam is already outside the bubble, and that people who don’t watch idol know him and are fans, even though some of those have never heard of people like Carrie and Daughtry, but they know Adam… and things like that make you believe his fanbase could take him to the top, or at leats higher.

If I have misinterpreted the general consensus of how the AI world feels about fans and sales, I stand corrected. But again, I find it interesting that a very early post on this thread was listing the numbers from initial sales from last years idols and the 3 day total from Kris. This just begs for comparisons to be made…rather than for this years numbers to be equated on a stand alone basis.

Even as a totally invested Adam fan, I think that Kris is getting the worst by any of these comparisons. I feel that the single chosen for him, did him absolutely no favors. First he was saddled with a coronation song that sucked (big time) and then his post idol single Heartless didn’t sound like what he was able to do with it on the show (and so unfair comparisons arose) and then the first song released from the album was a cover…and a word for word, breath for breath cover…and I truly think Kris was blindsided on this one. And no amount of radio spins is going to erase that…however good people find the song. And now, I think that everyone is just waiting for the album to see what Kris can really do. If it sells well then Kris will have a future…if it tanks then Kris has a problem (as any new singer would).

And, I love TfM…I’m a flower child from the 60′s and have always loved the big Rock ballad. And I, as a fan, am personally happy with the 47,000 units sold for a song that is free as a video on the internet (and based on all the statistics I have read) has probably been illegally downloaded a few thousand times (skuttle butt has is that for every legally purchased song there are 20 illegal downloads) and I would think that since Adam is a “visual” artist the video was more interesting to people than the song.

I only have opinions, no facts…so its 47,000 for Adam and this DOES NOT compare favorably to either of the Davids. End of story.

Maybee his other single will be a radio megahit, but I don’t think we will see an enormous difference between the first week sales. First week has always been about the fanbase.

You know, you may be absolutely correct. Or not. If his first week numbers come in big, it will certainly throw a wrench in all these fanbase theories.

you do realize exposure is more than a radio thing right? Its not like there wasnt an ad on itunes, its not like he wasnt shown on ET twice, its not like it was all over blogs,

And I would argue that there are different types of exposure – exposure for Adam Lambert, the artist, and exposure for the song itself. People seem to be making the assumption that all of the fans who buy the single that first week (those 100,000 +) are the type of fan that will knee-jerk buy whatever their fav puts out. (All they have to do is get wind of it on the blogosphere and they’re first in line with their money.) Where’s the statistical data to back this assumption up? I would argue it’s just as plausible that many of these first week buyers are more discerning (but less rabid) fans who remember the Idol from the show but buy the single because they actually like the song that they’re hearing on the radio and are not just buying the single to “support” their Idol (okay, maybe they’re killing two birds with one stone). Regardless, seeing Adam behind the scenes on his Details cover shoot on ET is not going to prompt any of these fans to go search the internet for his new single.

But as I said above, let’s see what happens when Entertainment or whatever comes out. If sales are about the same as TfM after the song receives radio airplay and promotion comparable to other first singles, then your argument might have merit.

As someone pretty much outside the AI bubble, for me Kris coronation song NOBO did not do to well on radio, usually coronation songs get played to death pretty much the whole summer long carrying it to their album release date, so Kris was not stuck on people’s brain at all.

Just a nitpick– what you described is NOT what typically happens to coronation songs. What happened with TOML was actually pretty unique, and it stands as the highest selling coronation single of all time. Coronation singles are usually viewed by the public as cheesy and bad, open big from the momentum of the show, and then fade away. Well, I guess NoBo didn’t even open big. Jordin’s This is My Now also opened small though. Anyway, I’m not THAT versed in Idol history, but I think Kelly Clarkson’s A Moment Like This is the only other “real” radio hit. The other coronation singles that sold well benefited from their B sides, which would be their most popular Idol covers.

ETA: Gingerly posted the spreadsheet– yes read that instead of my ramblings

I only have opinions, no facts’ ¦so its 47,000 for Adam and this DOES NOT compare favorably to either of the Davids. End of story.

And the only conclusion one may get from it is that Adam does not have as big an AI fanbase as the Davids, that’s all, and that’s something I have always thought so it’s really no surprise. For example, I never thought Adam could win early on in the season even though it was obvious that he’s the best of the season (the reason being those pictures). I also predicted elsewhere a couple of weeks before the finale that Kris would win, not because I thought Kris had a stronger fanbase (his is much weaker than Adam’s), but because I thought there were enough antipathy towards Adam and Danny for either of them to win (the votes would be transferred to Kris whichever one gets voted off).

However, straight after the finale, my prediction for the sales of Adam’s first album would be in excess of 1 million (and likely outselling David Cook if his material is good enough), and that has little to do with AI fanbase, but rather because of his obvious talent that he can reach far beyond the AI fanbase to establish himself as a star. As for Kris, because of his weaker fanbase and weaker voice, the fear has always been that he would not be able to outsell Taylor Hicks, and I like Kris enough not to want him to be seen as a failure (which he undoubtedly will should his album fails even to reach gold which is a real possibility).

I’m in the camp that looks as TFM as not his ‘true single’. Yes, yes, I know it received promotion and is Adam’s first post-Idol released song, but this is undeniably a different circumstance. I think the fact that 46k people decided to buy this song is a good sign, mainly b/c I don’t think this song sounds very current. “Crush” did well b/c of the hardcore fans AND b/c it was a song that appealed to the general audience (and lots of tweens). I think Adam has the ability to knock it out of the park with his ‘real’ single…but it will depend heavily on the quality (and wide appeal) of the song.

The love affair with Adam started early on too, more than it did for Cook.

Yes, but Cook’s fanbase continued to grow throughout the season. I sort of felt like Adam’s fans came on board at ROF and then flatlined. Adam’s AI fan base is intense and loyal, but he doesn’t necessarily appeal to the mainstream like Cook did. Kris appeals to the mainstream like Cook, but IMHO, doesn’t have the charisma of Cook or the singing chops. Also Cook had a heart wrenching backstory.

I think Adam will do well as his music is introduced to the general public. Right now, the exposure of his one song, TMF, has only been internet based and therefore just the usual AI suspects (invested fans) are purchasing it. I think Adam’s fanbase “outside the AI bubble” in the long run will dwarf his “Idol bubble” fanbase.

And I would argue that there are different types of exposure ‘“ exposure for Adam Lambert, the artist, and exposure for the song itself. People seem to be making the assumption that all of the fans who buy the single that first week (those 100,000 +) are the type of fan that will knee-jerk buy whatever their fav puts out.

The thing about hardcore AI fans is that in the past, they (we) have purchased whatever the idol alums have released. None of the previous idol alums debuted at number 1 on the billboard charts or sold 100,000 plus copies of their singles and albums because they were getting lots of airplay, in fact, their sales totals totally dwarfed the amount of spins they were getting. These sales were because their AI fanbases were buying albums, usually multiple copies, in order to support their favorite. That’s why so many of these idol alums quickly fell down the charts, or in the case of Taylor Hicks’s, set records for how quickly a song could debut at number 1 and then vanish from the chart.

I think that both Adam and Kris sales show that AI fans aren’t as passionate about spending their money to support the person. I think most people buy music because they like the music, not because they like the person who sings it, and that’s probably what we will see this year. Adam’s promotion has been great, but the promotion has been about him, not his music, so it’s hard for people to part with their money and buy something that they may or may not like.

In order to get the hardcore AI fans and those in the mainstream to buy his music, I think Adam will have to work as hard as Kris and Allison, and actually put the focus on the music, and not on himself.

Adam seems to be getting tons of press and buzz over his album cover. I can’t remember any of the previous idols getting this kind of promotion in the past, so will be interesting to see if it does translate to sales for his singles and CD.

The thing about hardcore AI fans is that in the past, they (we) have purchased whatever the idol alums have released. None of the previous idol alums debuted at number 1 on the billboard charts or sold 100,000 plus copies of their singles and albums because they were getting lots of airplay, in fact, their sales totals totally dwarfed the amount of spins they were getting. These sales were because their AI fanbases were buying albums, usually multiple copies, in order to support their favorite.

ITA-I think the days of multiple buying are over. I wish we knew what percentage of fans bought multiple copies. I suspect there are far fewer people this year purchasing multiple copies than previous years.

Adam seems to be getting tons of press and buzz over his album cover. I can’t remember any of the previous idols getting this kind of promotion in the past, so will be interesting to see if it does translate to sales for his singles and CD.

He was at #11 during the night on Amazon. Now, he is at #8 with the arrow pointing up. Go figure. I confuzzled but happy.

Brian posted album numbers. Archie only dropped 56% to 7000, which is pretty good, I think. Usually second week drops are 50-75% right?

Overall, underwhelming week on the albums front. Drops all around, except for Carrie’s first album, which oddly posted a 9% increase.

Ov

erall, underwhelming week on the albums front. Drops all around, except for Carrie’s first album, which oddly posted a 9% increase.<blockquote>

Carrie is the AI superhero.

These sales were because their AI fanbases were buying albums, usually multiple copies, in order to support their favorite.

ITA-I think the days of multiple buying are over. I wish we knew what percentage of fans bought multiple copies. I suspect there are far fewer people this year purchasing multiple copies than previous years.

Maybe there’s less bulk buying this year, and I totally buy the notion that the bulk buying phenomenon (sp?) could be gradually disappearing (thank goodness) over the years, from the height of the Clay Nation… but I’m not sure we can say there was a sudden drop of this practice from 2008 to 2009, such that singles are selling over 50% less? Clearly, there are other factors.

Eight spins does not a first single make, and besides that it doesn’t represent his music and was never promoted by him.

Just because radio stations don’t seem to want to play the single, that doesn’t take away from the fact that it was officially released to them.

And, yes, Adam has been promoting this single for weeks. He appeared on ET, where they played the video. He promoted it on Ryan’s show, and he said the video would air before “This is It.”

The point was obviously to use the single to promote Adam, but I doubt that RCA could guess the lukewarm reception that the single has gotten. In a way, it’s good that stations aren’t playing it, since the song doesn’t fit Adam’s style or the album that he’s about to release. I think this is a case where Adam and his people were looking at the promotion, and not the larger picture. Why, given the fact that Adam is a new artist, have him assoicated with a song that doesn’t fit him. I think this is the reason why Jive had Jordin and Kris stop singing their coronation songs, they didn’t want people who don’t watch American Idol to think that either song represented the type of music that those two would release.

I guess RCA expected stations to play the song just because the Adam Lambert is singing it, and that just didn’t happen. And they expected people to buy it just because of Adam, and while that did happen, the numbers are a lot lower than they anticipated.

Face it, based on these numbers, and the sales numbers of the studio recordings from AI, Kris and Adam’s AI fanbases are the same size.

In my most humble opinion, and based on the posts about his album cover last night and the barrage of very “bad taste twats that everyone associated with the album cover received” the AI fanbase for Adam has and is hitting the road in record numbers. Adam is not the suit wearing guy from Mad World or Tracks of my Tears, and is not the uber testosterone driven male of WLL…and the more information that comes out about his album the more these fans will run for cover and gratefully disassociate themselves from him. Based on the album thread I would think that 2/3s of them are HISTORY.

Adam is going into this next phase of his career just like any other “brand new artist”. He will be lucky to break into the top 100 on I-tunes out of the gate with his first “legitimate” single, and it will take radio a while to start spinning his tunes. He has been able to build up some non-idol fandom but it will take a bit for this group to get organized and going…and they won’t buy unless the music is good.

Usually the tour reflects the popularity of the season. And S8 and S7 numbers were almost identical. So the meh first week sales of both Kris and Adam surprise me. (Although Adam’s album is doing very well on Amazon.)

It’s kind of obvious that Kris’ album will have the lowest opening week sales of any Idol winner. Adam’s numbers are more of a mystery.

Maybe there’s less bulk buying this year, and I totally buy the notion that the bulk buying phenomenon (sp?) could be gradually disappearing (thank goodness) over the years, from the height of the Clay Nation’ ¦ but I’m not sure we can say there was a sudden drop of this practice from 2008 to 2009, such that singles are selling over 50% less? Clearly, there are other factors.

I think it’s less bulk buying, and people aren’t buying these tracks just because these people appeared on AI. I don’t think we can call the idol fanbase a true fanbase, because they never purchased albums/singles because they liked the music, they purchased these things because they liked the AI alum, or because they needed to prove that their favorite deserved to win. Maybe people are just growing up. There has been a need by people to recieve some type of validation that their favorite should have won, but this group seems to be smaller than they appear. Hopefully, the days of the over inflated AI debut numbers is over, and things will get to a point where it’s more about the music, and not about my favorite should have won.

Do you know the percentage of albums that are purchased online, or via Amazon. Compare the top 100 ranking on Amazon to the billboard 200. On average, only between 20 to 30 of an albums sales come from online purchases. People just don’t buy albums online. As far as having low debut numbers, have the lowest debut numbers didn’t stop Jordin’s album for continuing to sell, or to go platinum. The debut numbers aren’t the whole picture.

Adam is going into this next phase of his career just like any other ‘brand new artist’ . He will be lucky to break into the top 100 on I-tunes out of the gate with his first ‘legitimate’  single, and it will take radio a while to start spinning his tunes. He has been able to build up some non-idol fandom but it will take a bit for this group to get organized and going’ ¦and they won’t buy unless the music is good.

That’s a pretty extreme view. So maybe Adam has lost some of his AI fanbase, but he is not going to be just like any brand new artist because new artists don’t get to go on 10 different talk shows on national TV to promote their album and automatically get wide distribution and prime store placement from the big box retailers during the holiday season. No matter what, he’s in a better position than a typical brand new artist.

But absolutely, every popular Idol alumni will lose some AI fans when they release original music. DC definitely did. Adam will also. It’s the nature of the game. AI fans are fickle, can be very demanding/entitled, and let’s face it, a lot of them probably want their Idol to sing their favorite covers forever. Trying to retain all those fans will not get them any longevity in the industry. Let’s hope all these guys, Adam, Kris, Davids, Allison, etc. gain more fans in the long run than they lose from AI.

Maybe people are just growing up.

So half the AI fanbase suddenly decided to grow up between 2008 and 2009 and stop the stupid bulk buying behavior they’d engaged in the 7 years prior?

I thought that TFM would sell at least 80-100k out of the gate since it quickly shot up iTunes and broke into the top 10. But that prediction quickly changed when it began to fall–almost just as quickly as it rose. “Oh, those hardcore fans,” I though.

Definitely not buying the bogus “economy” argument since digital single sales are at an all-time high. Or that it wasn’t promoted though radio….since TFM has been exposed via various types of media, including the “This Is It” documentary.

It just shows that those wild expectations right after Idol were just obscene amounts of hype.

So half the AI fanbase suddenly decided to grow up between 2008 and 2009 and stop the stupid bulk buying behavior they’d engaged in the 7 years prior?

When I said they might have grown-up, I was referring to buying music just to prove that the right or wrong person won. Maybe people just didn’t feel as passionate about doing this like they have in the past, or maybe it was money, or mabye, Kris and Adam share a lot of the same fans, and that’s why their numbers are so close. Like I said, there are people in both fandoms who wanted to prove that their guy is the real AI winner, but this year, I think those people make up a smaller portion of the fanbaes than in previous years.

sma11ie
10/28/2009 at 2:31 pm
I think DC’s album was listed for preorder a couple weeks after LO went for sale, and when you preorder, they automatically charge you for the single and you get it right away. But if you bought LO before the preorder was set up, most of the time, you don’t get the ‘Complete the
album’  option.

Ah, that makes sense. Well as much as anything on iTunes makes sense, lol. I probably bought both versions, being one of those die-hard fans that Adam apparently needs more of. Just one copy each though, I promise.

Tony
10/28/2009 at 4:34 pm
Definitely not buying the bogus ‘economy’  argument since digital single sales are at an all-time high. Or that it wasn’t promoted though radio’ ¦.since TFM has been exposed via various types of media, including the ‘This Is It’  documentary.

Tony, “This is It” only premiered last night and didn’t include the music video. So, it’s impact can’t be included here quite yet.

That’s a pretty extreme view. So maybe Adam has lost some of his AI fanbase, but he is not going to be just like any brand new artist because new artists don’t get to go on 10 different talk shows on national TV to promote their album and automatically get wide distribution and prime store placement from the big box retailers during the holiday season. No matter what, he’s in a better position than a typical brand new artist.

I must be in a time warp because, as of yet, none of this has happened for Adam, yet. If it does…then terrific. And to be honest I don’t remember either of the David’s getting “prime store placement” last year. But I do recall a lot of “off the street” newbies getting that kind of attention if their label was so inclined. And I’m not stating anything, really, but agreeing that Adam, and apparently Kris DO NOT HAVE the AI fan base that previous winners and runners up had. I don’t understand the logic.

And since I can’t edit…

And said with complete snark, sarcasm, and tongue in cheek and surrounded with a hundred smilies…

What store in their right mind would “front and center” an album by a guy that has the audacity to put out an album cover that makes himself look like a girly girl .

See, I still don’t understand the comparison to previous seasons. I realize that’s what these threads are for, but it makes no sense to me. I get that we’re comparing rabid fanbases, but as a relative newbie to AI, I would have thought we were looking for indicators for mainstream success.

My two girlfriends at work are planning to buy Adam’s album. They did not pre-order it, they don’t do that kind of shopping.

One is planning to see 2012 because she’s into the Mayan prediction thing. She hasn’t heard TfM and so hasn’t bought it. The other girlfriend doesn’t even know a movie is coming out, and doesn’t know Adam is singing the theme song. They aren’t iTunes users; they are physical CD buyers.

If TfM is not on the radio, the movie isn’t out, they haven’t seen TII, nor do they surf iTunes…but they went to an AI concert with me and are planning to support Adam’s career – how are they going to know about the music? Not because an OTT fan like me is gifting them with a download. Not gonna do it.

Aren’t there many, many other people like this out there in the world? Want the music, but haven’t heard a bloody thing about it? Not everyone is glued to blogs like us or watch entertainment television. Something tells me I’m in the wrong conversation. I just feel left out because I can’t play.

When I said they might have grown-up, I was referring to buying music just to prove that the right or wrong person won. Maybe people just didn’t feel as passionate about doing this like they have in the past, or maybe it was money, or mabye, Kris and Adam share a lot of the same fans, and that’s why their numbers are so close. Like I said, there are people in both fandoms who wanted to prove that their guy is the real AI winner, but this year, I think those people make up a smaller portion of the fanbaes than in previous years.

ITA-Babybelle with your whole post. Hopefully people have reached the “what’s the point” when it comes to bulk buying. Plus with the economy in the toilet, it seems kind of silly to buy copies of an album, single, just to increase your favs numbers (by the way, a fav that you have no personal contact with). I don’t think there is anything wrong with people purchasing extra copies for gifts, that is something different all together. Perhaps in these sober times, people are just being more realistic.

I also think the Davids were widely popular with the AI audience in a way Kris and Adam weren’t.

Bulk buying, schmulk buying. It looks to me as if Adam and Kris both need for a lot more of their fans to buy ONE song. Just one. I keep reading on this site about people who are “waiting” to buy some mythical perfect song that will surely come next, or waiting to buy the albums, or waiting to buy the vids, or waiting to buy, I dunno, a bonus track– instead of supporting what the poor guys have out there now.

Sorry if that sounds harsh, but I really don’t get that kind of supposed “fan.” And I think the whole bulk buying discussion–that crops up every year–is a distraction from hard truths when songs don’t sell as well as fans hoped they might.

Wow, the spin here is truly funny. Adam’s first week of sales were not impressive. Not dire. But not impressive.

What will be interesting to see is how his sales look next week and in the coming weeks of this “AdamStorm”. Opening big is great, but he needs to sustain sales. I’ll be curious to see how much of a drop or increase all this promo nets out.

He was at #11 during the night on Amazon. Now, he is at #8 with the arrow pointing up. Go figure. I confuzzled but happy.

People took one look at that cover and decided that if they had to have the music, they better order it from Amazon so that it will be delivered to their home in a little brown envelope rather than having to carry it around Walmart?

j/k

a distraction from hard truths when songs don’t sell as well as fans hoped they might

I’m a fan and I had absolutely no illusions about how well my fav was going to sell. I’m surprised he did as well as he did. These type of comments are often generated without any bases in fact and are strictly an opinion…a legitimate opinion, but an opinion none the less. So, I would be forever grateful if people would stop assuming they know what fans are expecting or not expecting.

I must be in a time warp because, as of yet, none of this has happened for Adam, yet. If it does’ ¦then terrific.

No, it hasn’t but FOR DAMN SURE it will. Adam will be on the morning shows, at least one late night show, Ellen, etc. etc. the week of release. It’ll happen.

Okay maybe not PRIME store placement, but getting a few slots in the new releases section of a store during the holidays, and more than like 2 of your albums pre-stocked– that’s not a given.

I get that we’re comparing rabid fanbases, but as a relative newbie to AI, I would have thought we were looking for indicators for mainstream success.

We’re comparing rabid fanbases because that’s the only thing to talk about muse over right now. We’d love to talk about indicators for mainstream success, but we don’t have too much data to carry on a meaningful conversation on that right now, not yet. Adam’s first single’s not even out yet. Probably a month after the song’s radio add date, we can start meaningly talking indicators of mainstream success (though I’m sure we’ll start talking right at release as well).

These type of comments are often generated without any bases in fact and are strictly an opinion

Sorry, but I’m going to have to disagree with you a bit here Tess. It is indeed a fact that there have been a lot of pretty lofty expectations expressed, both at MJs and on other sites, regarding Adam’s sales. You might not have shared them, but they have most definately been expressed. You can find them in any Adam related thread here. Heck you can find them in most non-Adam related threads for that matter! So yeah, we’ll see how it all shakes out over the next few weeks.

I’ve never heard anyone say that Tess. In fact, all I’ve heard over and over is people say the fanbase drives sales for a few weeks and then they have to get fans outside of idol. I have never heard anyone say that idol fans bring in new fans.

In fact, I’ve actually read a lot of theories that suggest that AI fans chase away new fans. I’m not saying it’s true.

sma11ie
10/28/2009 at 6:12 pm
We’re comparing rabid fanbases because that’s the only thing to talk about muse over right now. We’d love to talk about indicators for mainstream success, but we don’t have too much data to carry on a meaningful conversation on that right now, not yet. Adam’s first single’s not even out yet. Probably a month after the song’s radio add date, we can start meaningly talking indicators of mainstream success (though I’m sure we’ll start talking right at release as well).

Thanks for jumping in and talking me off the ledge, sma11ie…I guess I just read all these comparisons and see nothing but doom and gloom. To me, the numbers for TfM looked fine. *shrug* I didn’t expect 100,000 downloads the first week. Did anyone?

Just to clarify: Complete the Album works for any single that you buy that’s on the album. I distinctly recall Cook fans last year saying that they “completed the album” last year on itunes at the time of DCTR’s release and got credit for two songs, which could have only meant that they got credit for LO and Magic Rainbow. As Magic Rainbow was only available as a “single version” and not as an “album version” prior to the DCTR release date, that would mean that they got credit for the “single version.” I also seem to recall that, when I made my preorder for DCTR on itunes, itunes told me that I had already bought music on the album, showing that it sensed that I had bought the “single versions” of one or both of LO and Magic Rainbow.

Also, last year, the guy who leaks the unrounded numbers that we get leaked something special last year: The numbers showing that one of Taylor Swift’s singles from Fearless had actually gone negative because of “Complete the album” the week that Fearless was released. Prior to Fearless’s release, that song had only been available as a “single version,” again showing that the purchase of the single counted toward the purchase of the album, if you chose the “complete my album” option.

So, if you were thinking of buying LLWD or whatever but didn’t really want to pay for both the single and the album, you can go ahead and buy the song now and get credit for it later when you buy the album. The effect on the artist’s numbers will be:

Week of single purchase: Get credit for 1 single purchased.

Week of album purchase: Lose credit for 1 single “returned” as part of “Complete the album” and get credit for 1 album purchased.

ETA: Oh, yeah. I did expect 100K in sales the first week. Or somewhere near that. Between the promo that the song got (including the itunes banner, ET, etc.), the availability of twitter, and the various statements that I’ve seen here and elsewhere about Adam’s great sales potential, I did think that TFM would sell 100K. Especially as it does fit with some of the old school classic rock songs that he sang on Idol and the Idol tour.

Tess, I’m not just assuming what fans expect, I’m going by what I have read on this site, but I should have said “some fans” so as not to sweep all of you into a generalization. My apologies and point taken.

On another point that you raised above, I can’t speak for DA, but DC got wonderful prime-placement in stores such as the Wal-Marts. He stayed up high in primo territory on the best seller racks for a long time and usually also had front and center placement in a couple of other racks in the same stores, too. I would think that both Kris and Adam would get similar preferred treatment, and around the holidays that helps tremendously for point-of-purchase sales, as you know.

ETA: I realize you were kidding, but I thought the topic of store placement was interesting. Adam is going to be eye-catching.

FolkFan
10/28/2009 at 6:34 pm
Just to clarify: Complete the Album works for any single that you buy that’s on the album.

That’s how I was remembering it as well FolkFan. But I also remember iTunes being pretty wonky and people having lots of issues with getting multiple copies when they completed albums, being mis-charged, and so forth. Hopefully that’s working better for fans this year.

First week single sales comparisons last year and this year:
David Archuleta: 160, 000
David Cook: 108, 000
Adam Lambert: 46, 000
Kris Allen: 25, 000 (full week/not sure about this one)

1st week sales for ”crush” were 166k

I don’t have a clue why anybody’s single numbers are what they are, but I *do* think they threw a new wrench in the works this year when they offered the behind-the-scenes iTunes package (including album and singles and some other junk) for Kris. Anybody who bought that package got the single without paying for it separately or it being counted as a sale. (I know they didn’t get it immediately, but they did get it eventually as part of the package.) I have no idea how much that interfered with Kris’s numbers in the early going, but it certainly had some sort of impact. It would’ve all come out in the wash sooner or later, anyway, with the “complete your album” function FolkFan was talking about upthread. But for the early weeks, it may very well have made his numbers look a lot worse than they were. And there’s just no way to know because we don’t know how many of those packages they sold. Since that was all in place before Jive signed Kris, it may be something they just had to work around and try to figure out a lay-down strategy around. Like, all the normal bets are off, cause we gotta work with this *&!% iTunes package thing that just siphoned off 50K in single sales.

Or something.

1st week sales for ‘ crush’  were 166k

Wow, impressive. Does Crush hold the title for best first week sales for an Idol single. Good for Archie…that little cutie pie.

I don’t know how many singles everybody else sold, but I do know Cook sold 236,000 of “Time of My Life” the first week after the Idol finale, so… I’m thinking that Crush does not hold the title. Of course, as soon as I say that, somebody will argue that TOML isn’t a real first single, and that digital singles aren’t the same as physical ones, so we can’t compare the previous years contestants and their singles.

hi undercooked – glad to be of service… from mj’s last year – ”crush”, by the numbers… this is a very special song still for the archuleta fans…

Chart guru, Fred Bronson, of Billboard devotes this week’s Chart Beat column to David Archuleta’s remarkable Hot Shot Debut at #2 on this week’s Billboard Hot 100. I posted some general stats yesterday. Here are his list of official Billboard stats:

1. The highest new entry on the Hot 100 of 2008.

2. The highest debut ever on the Hot 100 for an American Idol song not performed on the series.

3. The highest-debuting single on the Hot 100 since the No. 2 bow of Fall Out Boy’s ‘This Ain’t a Scene, It’s an Arms Race’  the week of Feb. 3, 2007.

4. Archie’s peak position to date on the Hot 100 is higher than the winner, David Cook. Bronson says, that although the record may be temporary, Archie is only the ‘second runner-up to outperform the ‘Idol’  winner from the same season. The first was Clay Aiken, who went to No. 1 in 2003 with ‘This Is the Night’ while second season champ Ruben Studdard peaked at No. 2 with ‘Flying Without Wings.”  Cook’s coronation single, ‘Time of My Life’  peaked at #3 on the Hot 100.

5. ‘Crush,’  which debuts at No. 1 on Hot Digital Songs, is the fourth entry for Archie on the Hot 100. His first three all debuted the week of June 7 and spent one week each on the chart: his version of John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’  at No. 36, Elton John’s ‘Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me’  at No. 58 and ‘In This Moment’  at No. 60.

6. ‘Crush’  is the seventh single to debut inside the top 10 of the Hot 100 in 2008, including Taylor Swift’s ‘Change,’  which enters this week at No. 10. Bronson posts a summary: No. 2: ‘Crush,’  David Archuleta (Aug. 30) No. 3: ‘The Time of My Life,’  David Cook (June 7) No. 5: ‘Burnin’ Up,’  Jonas Brothers (July 12) No. 8: ‘Tonight,’  Jonas Brothers (Aug. 16) No. 9: ‘New Soul,’  Yael Naim (Feb. 16)No. 9: ‘Forever,’  Chris Brown (May 10) No. 10: ‘Change,’  Taylor Swift (Aug. 30)

Finally, Bronson lists a summary of songs recorded by American Idol finalists, but not performed during the course of competition that have debuted in the top 10:

No. 2: ‘Crush,’  David Archuleta (Aug. 30, 2008)
No. 4: ‘Solitaire,’  Clay Aiken (April 3, 2004)
No. 6: ‘I’ll Stand By You,’  Carrie Underwood (May 12, 2007)
No. 8: ‘Never Again,’  Kelly Clarkson (May 12, 2007)

http://mjsbigblog.com/david-archuleta-crush-debuts-at-2-on-the-billboard-hot-100-part-2.htm

smartcookie, I was also wondering what kind of an impact the itunes pass had on Kris’ sales. I did buy the pass. When I didn’t get the single right away, I went ahead and bought it. A few days later I got the notice that it was available for download. When I went to download it (because I had already paid for it, LOL) it told me I already had. So it definitely counted the “sale” of the single as part of the pass. I never got charged for the single download. I’m sure I’ll have to “complete the album” when it becomes available on the 17th. I assume everything will get counted then as an album sale, but still not a single sale. (Well that was a rambling post – sorry, suffering with a head cold. I hope it made sense!)

If you are going to include coronation singles, then the winner would be Clay (393K) followed by Ruben (286K). Kelly also sold 236K of A Moment Like This.

Also on the subject of coronation singles, yes, NoBo was not a charting fiend, but the fact that Kris charted for a while on AC is still a plus. Only two of the songs (A Moment Like This and Magic Rainbow) managed to chart on any format other than AC, and those two songs had much longer chart runs than any other song. I personally think that NoBo sucks, a lot, and the fact that it got airplay when a number of the Idol coronation songs got little to none says to me that radio is at least open to Kris. Obviously, it’s not the be-all to end-all in any event—Jordin’s coronation single did not chart for any weeks (and we know that she gets lots of radio airplay) while Clay’s coronation single had the best chart run after DC and Kelly (and he does not get radio airplay).

BILLBOARD HOT 100

20 17 KELLY CLARKSON ALREADY GONE
19 21 CARRIE UNDERWOOD COWBOY CASANOVA
– 34 GLEE CAST FEATURING SWEET CAROLINE
– 50 ADAM LAMBERT TIME FOR MIRACLES
– 92 CARRIE UNDERWOOD TEMPORARY HOME
– 93 GLEE CAST FEATURING BUST A MOVE

Bulk buying, schmulk buying. It looks to me as if Adam and Kris both need for a lot more of their fans to buy ONE song. Just one. I keep reading on this site about people who are ‘waiting’  to buy some mythical perfect song that will surely come next, or waiting to buy the albums, or waiting to buy the vids, or waiting to buy, I dunno, a bonus track’“ instead of supporting what the poor guys have out there now.

Sorry if that sounds harsh, but I really don’t get that kind of supposed ‘fan.’  And I think the whole bulk buying discussion’“that crops up every year’“is a distraction from hard truths when songs don’t sell as well as fans hoped they might

Spritely, I don’t get this, neither Adam or Kris needs the type of fans that you are talking about, fans like this are not real fans of the music. Both of these people want long careers, and they aren’t going to achieve that unless people are buying and supporting their careers because they actually like the music.

The situation that you describe is the reason why it’s so hard for AI alums to be taken seriously. The theory that those who competed on AI have contracts because of the “cult of personality” and not because they can make music that people want to listen to and buy, has been around forever, and the huge opening debut numbers for songs that aren’t getting any airplay, doesn’t help dispel this notion.

The situation that you describe is the reason why it’s so hard for AI alums to be taken seriously. The theory that those who competed on AI have contracts because of the ‘cult of personality’  and not because they can make music that people want to listen to and buy, has been around forever, and the huge opening debut numbers for songs that aren’t getting any airplay, doesn’t help dispel this notion.

Wow….this is one of the most articulate posts on this subject I have read. Kudos.

crush had an ai of 7.669 million the week it went for downloads, and that number increased steadily… sales remained remarkably consistent week to week for the song, reaching and selling to an audience outside of the ”idol bubble”…it’s sitting now on the cusp of 2 million total downloads… ai alums, to me, are no different in their quest for acceptance and credibility than other new artists when they leave idol and go out into the real music world… there is always some barrier or ”stigma” to be overcome – and it can be overcome… it’s the quality and commercial appeal of what they produce after they leave idol that lends to that elusive ”cred”… underwood did it, clarkson did it, daughtry did it, and there will be i’m sure others whose quality of music over the long haul will lend itself to those artists being taken seriously…

babybelle, I get what you’re saying, and I think it’s a valid point of view, but I just happen to disagree with it to some degree. I think the way you’re talking about of valuing the music is valid, but I think it’s also valid for a fan to look at the look term of their Idol’s career and buy early work–whatever it is–just to help their Idol get a toehold. I’m one of those fans, for instance, and I value DC’s music more than anything else about him. I believe I’m a “real fan of the music,” just as you know that you are, though you, perhaps, go about it in a different way. Neither of us quite agrees with each other’s way, but that’s life in the Idol lane.

I think huge opening numbers do help a LOT, at least in the short run that includes corporate support, plans for concerts, likelihood of more albums, etc. After that, the Idol has to prove what any new singer does, that his actual music is what people want. Clearly, if the huge opening numbers can’t be sustained in any meaningful way–because maybe his/her own music isn’t appealing enough,or the concerts aren’t–then that doesn’t look good. Clay comes to mind, for instance, with apologies to his fans here. But for Idols who continue to do well, and there are a number of them now, I think the big numbers and early fan support is important and to be desired. I doubt the Davids, for instance, would give up their big early sales in favor of more modest ones.

To give some context for where I’m coming from–it’s the same place David Cook seems to be coming from–which is that I don’t spend any time worrying if an Idol is taken seriously. Any new artist has to earn respect. Idols just have to overcome it a bit more, at least in the rock world, if not in pop. And they either do, or they don’t, but they’re still being given a fabulous chance, however it turns out.

Interesting difference of opinion about fan support, imo.

ETA: Ack. I am sick of my own post-hoing! Over ‘n’ out.

My problem with all of this: early numbers, fan support, single sales, album sales, how fast, how slow is that any small rabbit can be pulled out of the hat to support a thesis about how an Idol ranks in the broad scheme of things, and which idol has great support in and outside of the basic fan group.

Since they don’t seem to be mentioned here I’ll use Daughtry as a base barometer. Now I have no idea how their initial single release did, if it went to number 1, how long it stayed there, etc. etc. But I do know that their first album went quadruple platinum over a 3 year time period…almost 5 million albums. I also know, that until this fall they have not (either by choice or by design) headlined a major tour. I also know that this second album is doing OK and keeping up with other album releases from established groups, but it isn’t touching the success of the initial album.

So with all of this diverse information, how does Daughtry rank and what kind of a fan base did he have and what kind of a fan base does he have. Is he less than Archie because his initial single didn’t garner tons of firsts and highests, is he less than Cookie because he hasn’t had a solo tour for a year, is he better than Jordin because her album sales have been slow but her singles ranked 10th amongst all artists for 2008. The numbers game, bless its heart, isn’t a fool proof science and really doesn’t tell us much about the “total” impact of any Idol.

And based on the numbers game Kelly’s 10 million plus in album sales with more on the way…will always keep her number 1. And I don’t think anyone will argue that a little Texas girl from a summer replacement reality show hit the ground running with a big built in fan base especially because the internet wasn’t quite the force it is today.

I’m not arguing with anyone’s right to use numbers to elevate their fan to #1 in some category…I’m just saying that that number doesn’t tell the whole story.

and the huge opening debut numbers for songs that aren’t getting any airplay, doesn’t help dispel this notion

Why do I think that if TfM had sold 160K downloads this week, the argument would have been “See, he’s broken out of the Idol bubble. He’s a superstar.”

Daughtry is still at the top of the Idol pyramid with Kelly and Carrie because they have sold the most albums. Carrie is #1 because she’s sold the most in the U.S. Jordin’s incredible single sales are somewhat tarnished by her poor albums sales. It’s pretty easy to see how they rate Idols.

After the fanbase gives you the first week, the insane promo that 19 throws at the album usually kicks in. Radio takes over, yadda, yadda.
So at least one person every season has sold the required one million albums. That still seems to be the magic number. Although to join the big leagues you really should have the #1 album of the year – as Kelly, Carrie and Daughtry did.

Interesting convo, there. One thing that I’d throw out there, though, is that every fan has to decide what s/he wants to do. Last year, I commented that friends on another blog had mentioned that they intended to buy DC’s record and so were not buying the single. A poster opined that I needed either to go back and order those friends to buy the single, as well, or give him the url for the blog.

I still think that what I said was right: (a) no, I’m not doing either of those, but thanks! and (b) I don’t think that there is anything wrong with saying, “I like that singer, and I am going to buy one copy of his CD and that will be all.” For most fans of musicians, that’s all that you do. Typically, that’s what I do—unless there is a special version of a song that I otherwise own, I buy only the single or only the CD.

Now, I have done enough hanging around music sites over the last year+ of following DC to know that there are major fans who do buy multiple copies of music to support their chosen artists. I have seen references to that from fans of major, established artists, such as Britney, Beyonce, and others. Again, nothing wrong with that either.

I don’t get this, neither Adam or Kris needs the type of fans that you are talking about, fans like this are not real fans of the music. Both of these people want long careers, and they aren’t going to achieve that unless people are buying and supporting their careers because they actually like the music.

I would argue that “fans like this” are one of the reasons that artists chose to go the AI route to start with. It’s very difficult in the current music environment to get attention for yourself and your music. A core dedicated fanbase that is buying your record early helps establish momentum, gets you placement on sales charts and on music store racks, and draws the attention of radio programming directors. A dedicated core fanbase also is typically requesting with local radio stations, filling out mediabase surveys and generally helping your songs gain visibility in a crowded music market. For sure in the long run you have to make music people like and want to listen to. No question. That’s the difference between an AI alum who sells a couple hundred thousand and one whose record goes gold or platinum. But that early boost from dedicated fans is a big help.

The whole point of the show is that 30 million people see you every week. And vote for you. And hopefully at leat 1% of those people remember you 7 months later when your album drops.

So now it’s bad to have fans supporting your first single? Huh?

I don’t know how many singles everybody else sold, but I do know Cook sold 236,000 of ‘Time of My Life’  the first week after the Idol finale, so’ ¦ I’m thinking that Crush does not hold the title. Of course, as soon as I say that, somebody will argue that TOML isn’t a real first single, and that digital singles aren’t the same as physical ones, so we can’t compare the previous years contestants and their singles.

I don’t know crap about all of those different variables. There is one thing I’m able to decipher though – the songs closer to the finale (i.e. coronation songs) when the contestants are fresh in everyone’s mind and people are still in the frenzy, clearly do much bigger first week numbers than those that come out months later.

I hate to throw a different variable in the mess LOL, but I really do think that Cook’s LO couldn’t possibly have been expected to sell as much the first week as his TOML. There was just too much time for people to have moved on by that point.

But again, I really don’t know much about this stuff. That’s just my guess. And, I don’t track the numbers, just read them once in a while here – so I could be wrong about lots of stuff!

Also, I think Crush was just a really catchy pop tune. I don’t have a bunch of different theories about why it sold so much, other than people kept hearing it on the radio and obviously, they really liked it.

I don’t know how to compare Kris’s LLWD to that. And, I don’t know how to compare Adam’s movie song to that either. Sometimes, the numbers just are what they are.

Keep in mind also, that this is the first year they’ve done the season pass thing. And, they did it right away for Kris, while people were still in the frenzy. So, those that think his sales are disappointing may really be surprised if his first week album sales are huge because all of his fans purchased that pass while they were still riding the wave.

Why do I think that if TfM had sold 160K downloads this week, the argument would have been ‘See, he’s broken out of the Idol bubble.
He’s making new fans.’ 

totally agree… the expectation level has been built so high for lambert that i feel his publicity and overwhelming media presence should have more than made up for any lack of radio play the song received prior to its release… with the large and dedicated fanbases for the david’s in place, one can only imagine how much more light on and crush could or would have sold with media saturation like lamberts… just imagining here, not fanning any flames… not begrudging lambert one single moment of the unprecedented media coverage he’s received prior to his debut, but one can’t help but wonder if it had occurred during last season, for either of those two, what the effect would have been on those numbers….

Why do I think that if TfM had sold 160K downloads this week, the argument would have been ‘See, he’s broken out of the Idol bubble. He’s making new fans

That would be a hard agrument to sell, his gaining new fans based on TfM. Since any new fans gained would be based on their listening to a movie soundtrack that hasn’t even hit the movie theatres yet… If Adam can gain new fans from TfM when it really isnt being played anywhere, then he really is a glittery alien

So now it’s bad to have fans supporting your first single? Huh?

only if you’re david cook or archuleta. heh.

TfM really is a movie song. But RCA has put incredible resources into Adam’s album – songs by Pink, Gaga, Muse, Dr. Luke. Top of the line producers. Top of the line promo with the AMA so yes I’d say expectations are pretty high.

Archie’s Jive album was very modest in comparison. I doubt even Cook’s album cost near what Adam’s will. Not to mention that supporting an Adam tour with dancers, props, glam will be rather expensive. So sales will matter alot.

Archie’s Jive album was very modest in comparison. I doubt even Cook’s album cost near what Adam’s will. Not to mention that supporting an Adam tour with dancers, props, glam will be rather expensive. So sales will matter alot.

I’m thinking he’s actually going to have to make some money befor they even think about a tour with all of that stuff. I don’t think modest numbers will get Adam the spectacle he wants LOL.

I don’t know how to compare Kris’s LLWD to that. And, I don’t know how to compare Adam’s movie song to that either. Sometimes, the numbers just are what they are.

This. No need for spin or excuses IMO. Adam’s fanbase didn’t give TFM’s sales the big boost many expected, but who knows-the song could go on to sell platinum when all is said and done. The same could be said for LLWD. You just never know how things will play out in the long run.

Fanbases are going to behave the way they are going to behave. There’s no pattern there that’s predictable IMO. I recall last year that DC fans were surprised that DC sold only about 100K of LO and AI fanbases being what they are, they knew that this compared unfavorably to Crush’s 160K. So, of course, the expectation was that album sales were going to probably behave in the same way. Instead, Archie’s album opened about 80-90K (IIRC) less than Cook’s. (Not trying to resurrect a fan war, but just recounting events.)

So it seems to me that’s it’s still quite possible that Adam’s (and Kris’) hardcore fanbase are waiting for the album rather than buying the first thing that pops up for sale on iTunes, just like it seems a good number of Cook fans did last year.

Again, to reiterate, we’re talking here about the hardcore fanbase that will snap everything up the first week — none of which makes any difference as to the long term success of their Adam’s or Kris’ debut albums. In fact, it may well be the case that the marketing for Adam is what it is (i.e., more outside radio and more TV) because TPTB believe that he will break big outside of the AI bubble and, given his controversial nature, he is likely to lose a lot of his more conservative AI fanbase anyway. Just a thought.

I would argue that ‘fans like this’  are one of the reasons that artists chose to go the AI route to start with. It’s very difficult in the current music environment to get attention for yourself and your music. A core dedicated fanbase that is buying your record early helps establish momentum, gets you placement on sales charts and on music store racks, and draws the attention of radio programming directors. A dedicated core fanbase also is typically requesting with local radio stations, filling out mediabase surveys and generally helping your songs gain visibility in a crowded music market. For sure in the long run you have to make music people like and want to listen to. No question. That’s the difference between an AI alum who sells a couple hundred thousand and one whose record goes gold or platinum. But that early boost from dedicated fans is a big help.

Sorry for quoting the whole thing, but now THAT is the most articulate post on what AI can do for a new musician.

TfM really is a movie song. But RCA has put incredible resources into Adam’s album ‘“ songs by Pink, Gaga, Muse, Dr. Luke. Top of the line producers.

I agree that RCA is investing in the album based on what I’ve heard about producers and songwriters… what I don’t get is why Sony (whichever branch) put so many resources in TFM if they’re not gonna push it beyond the initial week’s iTunes banner and an ET segment? The music video was a big production, and directed by Wayne Isham, and the song was produced by Rob Cavallo. These people are not cheap. They put all that money on the vid, put it on myspace, showed clips on ET, and that’s it? I’m hearing the trailer before This Is It won’t even show part of this expensive video. What’s the rationale there? Will the vid be pushed after the movie comes out? If so, isn’t that right around when Adam’s real single should be gaining speed on radio, and when ideally the MV for that song should be debuting on VH1′s top 20 countdown? They wouldn’t wanna drop the TFM video to VH1 then to muddy the waters… so the expensive TFM vid just goes largely unused? Maybe it’ll be in more TFM commercials in November? I’m just confuzzled by what RCA was planning for with TFM.

Again, to reiterate, we’re talking here about the hardcore fanbase that will snap everything up the first week

Actually, I don’t know if DC’s 280K opening week comprised of only hardcore fans. Honestly, I buy a lot of albums from artists I like the week they drop simply because that’s when the promo is strongest, and I’m reminded of it. New albums usually get some nice placement at the store, or ads on iTunes, whatever it may be, enough so I’m reminded, and I snap it up. AI alum probably benefit from a lot of casual AI fans who see the album in stores, the ad on iTunes, or whatever and pick it up then. But yeah, good opening week numbers are great, but connecting with a wider fanbase is crucial second step to longevity.

Post ho’ing some last thoughts. I think Adam, unlike DC, will be more of a singles artist. His Dr. Luke first single has the potential to be a bit hit off the bat, maybe even more so than Crush was. If that happens, it could open huge. And then Adam fans can rejoice about how he’s broken out of the bubble . Regardless if it takes off right away on radio, it’ll open much bigger than TFM.

Someone twittered this:

RockinAllenFan NO WAY!?! Our bb Kris’s single LLWD is #5 on New Zealand’s Pop iTunes Chart!! People living there are KICK AWESOME!

YAY for Kris!

crush had an ai of 7.669 million the week it went for downloads, and that number increased steadily’ ¦ sales remained remarkably consistent week to week for the song, reaching and selling to an audience outside of the ‘ idol bubble’ ’ ¦it’s sitting now on the cusp of 2 million total downloads’ ¦ ai alums, to me, are no different in their quest for acceptance and credibility than other new artists when they leave idol and go out into the real music world’ ¦ there is always some barrier or ”stigma’  to be overcome ‘“ and it can be overcome’ ¦ it’s the quality and commercial appeal of what they produce after they leave idol that lends to that elusive ‘ cred’ ’ ¦ underwood did it, clarkson did it, daughtry did it, and there will be i’m sure others whose quality of music over the long haul will lend itself to those artists being taken

The only barrier i see with archie is that he will always be this kid in the eyes of people. He might have a good voice but man can we stand seeing him as kid even if he is 25 or 30? mmm That’s the difference with Cook.

Wow, impressive. Does Crush hold the title for best first week sales for an Idol single. Good for Archie’ ¦that little cutie pie.

Archie is really cute. He is like my 10 year old kid brother who i like to tease. He is so like baby cute.

Well, this morning is the highest I’ve seen LLWD on itunes for the first thing in the morning. Usually it drops to the low 130′s overnight, I think. Admittedly, I haven’t been paying attention myself, just from comments here, I think that’s what I recall. Anyway, this morning it’s at 121 so maybe spins are starting to kick in a little. (or maybe there isn’t much difference between 139 and 121 in actual sales, who knows!)

Archuleta’s Crush never attained near the total airplay/spins/ai that TOML did, and yet Crush out-sold TOML by a considerable margin. Radio isn’t everything.

Additionally, Crush debuted on Z100 on 1 August 2008 and was released to Itunes on 12 August 2008. That’s only 11 days, folks. There was barely any radio play, nationally, by the 12th, and so the argument that radio helped Archuleta to some “unfair” competitive advantage (for comparison purposes, only) over Adam or Kris is just flatly false.

At this early date, it would appear the Davids each had a larger and more rabidly loyal core fanbase than either Kris or Adam.