Idol Sales News – Week Ending 08/10/08

Airplay stats contributing to the Hot 100:
No. 34 – David Cook ( 1.4 million)
No. 36 – Jordin Sparks ( 5.3 million)
No. 59 – Leona Lewis ( 6.8 million)
No. 68 – Jennifer Hudson ( 1.4 million)
No. 205 – David Archuleta ( 3.6 million)

I dont think its sales related.. but then again i dont know much about the charts but this was posted over at idf:

David is #50 on the CHR/Pop chart:
75 50 DAVID ARCHULETA Crush 521 133 388 6.304

I saw that too frogcooke but I still don’t know what those figures are for.

What do the numbers 75 50 and then 521 133 388 6.304 mean?

What do the numbers 75 50 and then 521 133 388 6.304 mean?

75=Ranking last week (75th highest song on the chart on the same day last week)
50=Ranking today
521=Number of spins this week (number of times the song has been played in the last 7 days)
133=Number of spins last week (between 7 days ago and 14 days ago)
388=Number of additional spins this week (521-133)
6.304=Audience Impressions in millions (each radio station is estimated to have so many listeners per time slot (e.g. mid-afternoon, overnight). So, for every spin, the number of listeners is estimated (e.g. one spin at noon may get you 100,000 listeners and one at 10 pm would get you 40,000 listeners giving you an AI of 0.14))

On the Top 40 chart, ranking is determined by the number of spins in the last 7 days. For the Hot and Pop 100 charts, the audience impression is added to the sales numbers using a formula.

Crush should chart on next week’s Hot 100. I’m guessing somewhere in the Top 10 but that depends on how long the song stays at #1 on iTunes. If the song sells 150K plus downloads and keeps adding radio play, it could be #1. That’s a big if though.

Jordin and Cook are both doing great as well.

Crush will chart on this weeks Hot 100. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m guessing somewhere in the Top 10 but that depends on how long the song stays at #1 on iTunes. If the song sells 150K plus downloads and keeps adding radio play, it could be #1. Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a big if though.

By this week, you mean the numbers we will see next week, right? (the BB charts are hard to pin a “this week” on because the numbers are accumulated this week, reported next week and dated two weeks from now). I don’t think David has enough AI to make it on the Hot 100 chart released this week. The AI for the big songs are quite high (and he had no sales last week)

Here are some estimates for this week’s Hot 100 based on the available Mediabase numbers (calculations done by beyoncethebest over at Pulse) :

(predicted ranking) (artist) (song) (audience impressions) (singles sold) = (predicted possible score – play on demand numbers)
#1 RIHANNA Disturbia 44.004 148102= 192.106
#2 KATY PERRY 77.033 102570=179.603
#3 CHRIS BROWN 94.619 84820=179.439
#4 MIA 15.783 136258=152.041
#5 COLDPLAY 63.289 85492=148.791
#6 RIHANNA Take a Bow 100.683 47936=148.619

Archie will likely need to move close to 200K units to top the Hot 100 next week. If he manages it, I believe he will be the first Idol in over two years to top the Hot 100.

Thanks for all that info Kirsten :thumbup_tb:

Are these Digital Download Numbers are just US based or are they count worldwide ?

I meant next week and confused myself. Thanks for the great info. So who was the last Idol to get a #1 on the Hot 100? I’ll guess Taylor (DIMYP).

I meant next week and confused myself.

Easy enough to do. Those BB dates require a roadmap. LOL

So who was the last Idol to get a #1 on the Hot 100? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll guess Taylor (DIMYP).

That’s the last one I remember. Jordin and Daughtry have gotten close a few times and Cook was pretty close with his coronation single, but it takes just the right combination of factors to top the Hot 100. Many monster hits never make it. I remember “Crazy” spent weeks almost making the number 1 spot and constantly being pipped at the post.

Are these Digital Download Numbers are just US based or are they count worldwide ?

Just US numbers. Music numbers are generally reported per country unless otherwise noted. Movie revenue is the exception which reports Canadian/US box office numbers as one (ignoring Mexico and calling them North American Box Office Numbers) and DVD sales per country.

I love this numbers stuff….I really, really do….thanks Kristen for such a thorough rundown of how this all works! I eat it up, lol

Same here, Judy.

Thank you, Kristen!

That’s a lot to expect of Archie. I don’t think fans should worry too much about making number one. He’s doing great with little promotion, and he is so, so happy. Everyone seems to be winning right now so I hope everyone just has fun. It is nice to see Jordin doing well also. With Cook and Archie being successful it bodes well for the other Idols and I don’t want anyone to get upset by high expectations.

BTW, thanks to the Cookies and Castros and other idol fans. They have been GREAT. It was so nice to see how much support they are giving Archie and many made a point to post on various boards and to buy his single. Even if they aren’t crazy for Archie, many want him to succeed so they bought his single. Says a lot about the fans. (or they could just REALLY HATE the Jonas Brothers. ha. ha. ) Cook would be very proud. I do hope he is right, and that this will be the strongest idol year ever.

Thanks Kirsten (I’m your fan! LOL), and MJ for this blog.

DA is my fav from the first, but I’ve come to love all of them, and really want to see them do well, so I’m going to buy whatever they come up with to support their career, even Kristy’s “15 minutes of shame”. Too bad they are rushing her album, she deserves better, well unless if that’s what she wants of course.

Glad to see TOML is still going strong!

Heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s doing great with little promotion,

I don’t agree with this statement. Archie has gotten HUGE promotion from Z100. That is probably one of the biggest promotions an artist can get. Once a label gets an artist played on Z100, usually all the other radio stations follow (versus trying to work your way up the charts through airplay on the smaller stations).

That’s interesting, that you think that it will take 200,000 units to top the Hot 100. ToML sold approximately 236,000 the week that it debuted, but still didn’t hit #1. Sounds like there’s a lot of variation in the numbers needed to top that chart.

Even though Z100 is playing him, David did little promotion. He did not appear in any talk shows on TV. So I think the single did amazing considering how few people knows that it is out. There is no press release. No news at all.

So I think the single did amazing considering how few people knows that it is out

By getting airplay on Z100, the song now has an audience impression of 6.3 million. So at least 6.3 MILLION people know about it. He also has promotion on iTunes on the front page. Those to me are a lot more important than press releases or talk shows on TV. It is all about airplay.

Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interesting, that you think that it will take 200,000 units to top the Hot 100. ToML sold approximately 236,000 the week that it debuted, but still didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t hit #1. Sounds like thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a lot of variation in the numbers needed to top that chart.

Exactly. That’s why I meant when I said that it takes a combination of factors to top the Hot 100. Many songs fail to hit number 1 because their sales and airplay do not peak at the same time. Others miss it because a huge hit blocks them. For instance, Taylor wouldn’t have gotten #1 on the Hot 100 if his single would have been released a week earlier (Shakira’s “Hips Don’t Lie” broke sales records that week). Not to diminish his accomplishment, though, because he did beat some very big hits during his week. You see the same with the BB200. Some albums get to be number 1 in January with numbers that wouldn’t even crack the top 15 in November. Meanwhile, other albums don’t get to number 1 when they have sales that are 4 times as high as numbers for albums that are number 1 in other weeks. Rankings are relative.

There is a bit of a window right now in the Hot 100 because there is a bit of a disconnect between airplay and sales amongst the biggest hits. Look at that Chris Brown song and “Take a Bow”. They are hitting AIs of almost 100M, but their sales aren’t so high. Meanwhile, “Disturbia” is doing well on sales, but it’s airplay hasn’t caught up yet. If Rihanna’s “Disturbia” had “Take a Bow”‘s airplay numbers, there would be little chance for a hit download song to sneak through. 200K in sales is achievable.

I don’t think “Crush” can get number 1 on the Hot 100 this coming week, though. It doesn’t seem to be outselling “Disturbia” by much and I don’t think the airplay numbers will suddenly explode. There is still most of the sales week left though, so I won’t say it cannot happen.

I do think that it is a massive achievement that he got to number 1 at all. It isn’t a given for Idols to get to number one on the iTunes chart. Cook did it, but who remembers the last time that happened to an Idol before him? And Cook’s sales was fueled with the post-AI euphoria. The interest in Idol always wanes over the summer (look at the traffic stats for AI related sites) and people stop becoming so invested in the results. “Tattoo” certainly didn’t post these kinds of numbers last year and Archie didn’t get to number 1 with his finale songs either. Being played on the Zoo is great, but it still is only one market. This may help him to get played in other markets in the future, but for now, it’s exposure limited to one area of the country. I’m not trying to be some gushing Archie fan-girl here. I’m just a numbers nuts and you don’t often see numbers like this with a song with so little airplay. So, colour me impressed.

By getting airplay on Z100, the song now has an audience impression of 6.3 million. So at least 6.3 MILLION people know about it.

I don’t think that I’ve explained audience impressions very well. These are not unique audience impressions. Almost anybody who listens to Pop radio will admit that they hear the same songs played over and over again. So, those 6.3 million audience impressions most likely map to a much smaller subset of actual people. This isn’t like television where if 30 million people are reported to have watched the show, then 30 million people heard so-and-so sing that song.

Granted, hearing a song many times might make you more likely to buy a song (though, sometimes, it just makes you want to gouge your ears out).

There are probably some stats out there which record companies and radio stations use to figure out how many unique people have heard the song, but I don’t think they are generally known.

Again, being a hit on the Z100 is a big help. I just don’t know if that’s a big contributing factor fueling sales yet (outside of the NY market). I’m frankly quite surprised at the sales numbers given trends of previous Idol singles, the amount of exposure this song has gotten across the country (to date) and the fact that this is the dog-days of summer. Is he getting spun on Radio Disney?

There is no spin from Disney yet. They should play the song. It is made for radio Disney.

The more I think about it, 19E gave him so little promotion that I am sort of angry. Why hasn’t Ryan Seacrest interviewed him yet? Why not get him booked in some radio interviews yesterday? They couldn’t issue a simple press release so that people know the song is released?

Archie should have no probable getting 200k in sales. David Cook did it in 4 days and had virtually no radio play. The Archies have a huge campaign going on with folks buying/gifting multiple copies and they are going to do this day after day to keep his iTunes position up. He is probably at more than 200k already.

Maybe hold off on getting angry. I’ve seen ads on http://www.fmqb.com and on all access for the Crush single and those are a couple of places where folks from radio stations might see them. It’s also possible that he did do radio interviews today or yesterday—it seems like a number of those are done each day, but not all of those become known widely. So, no guarantees that that wasn’t done. DC’s interview with Ryan was not long before ToML hit Top 40, so it may be that there would be an interview around the time that Crush makes it that high on the chart.

In the end, I could see that a staged promo attack could be very successful. The fans knew to buy the CD this week, and that’s leading to big sales. The Z100 thing is leading to some airplay. Start the push on promo now (really, earlier than now, with the Z100 play the ads that I mentioned), and have it spike around the time that fan sales are likely to drop off, in the hopes that the general public picks up the ball at that time.

The more I think about it, 19E gave him so little promotion that I am sort of angry. Why hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t Ryan Seacrest interviewed him yet? Why not get him booked in some radio interviews yesterday? They couldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t issue a simple press release so that people know the song is released?

I think a better mindset would be to think of his radio play now as “bonus” play. His radio impact date isn’t until September 2, and everything before that is considered early play. Some stations will pick it up beforehand (and have, mostly in the east and a little bit in the south), but others will hold off until it becomes more established. Still others won’t play it until it’s almost a guaranteed hit. KIIS could be waiting for September 2nd, or it could be waiting for an interview, or it could be waiting to see how well the song does without it’s help before it decides to give it some play.

“Archie should have no probable getting 200k in sales. David Cook did it in 4 days and had virtually no radio play”

David Cook had the finale of Idol. Over 30 million invested TV watchers heard him sing the song on live TV. Plus radio/TV/newspaper promo for days after the show. That’s why coronation singles always do well. But great for Cook that the song is still a hit 3 months after the finale. By then most of these songs are done.

For the majority of TV watchers, Idol is a distant memory. Just to compare, Tattoo got to #64 or so on iTunes the day it was released and it already had a significant amount of radio play. Of course it turned into a monster hit.

I think Jive gambled that the Jonas Bros. fans would also buy Archie’s single.They went for it and it worked.

The Archies have a huge campaign going on with folks buying/gifting multiple copies and they are going to do this day after day to keep his iTunes position up.

I don’t know. I’ve seen a lot of buying campaigns over the years and they never seem to even cause much of a dent. I think they only appear to have an effect when the song/album are a hit anyway. Maybe it’s because I refuse to believe that many people are that loony. I don’t think a buying campaign can get you to number one on iTunes.

He is probably at more than 200k already.

I don’t think so. That would mean he moved 200K in one day. The popularity bars don’t support that supposition, in my opinion. He might be able to do it in a week.

I think Jive gambled that the Jonas Bros. fans would also buy Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s single.They went for it and it worked.

I think that is what Jive did and it looks like they’re brilliant. No wonder Barry got Clive’s job. Almost nothing spent on promotion and Jive got the number one song on iTunes. I’m impressed. Now that the song is parked on top of the iTunes chart, they get free advertising everytime somebody goes to iTunes. Well played, I say.

And speaking of the Jonas Brothers, we were talking yesterday about how teens don’t buy albums anymore and they may have released too many singles prior to the album dropping…HDD is predicting they will move 725K albums this week making it the second biggest selling debut of the year (HDD bases their estimates on first day sales). It looks like Jive is positioning itself for the same teen market with Archie and that’s starting to look like a really good idea.

Maybe hold off on getting angry. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve seen ads on http://www.fmqb.com and on all access for the Crush single and those are a couple of places where folks from radio stations might see them.

True, but that’s not going to be fueling the sales he’s seeing. After the post-Idol numbers came out, I didn’t think Archie was as popular as he seemed on the show, so I’m quite surprised that he’s doing so well on iTunes. Sorry to beat on Season 6, but they didn’t manage anything like this under similar conditions. Cookie is doing really well too at sustaining his popuarlity. As jpfan said, ususally these coronation songs are dead in the water by mid-August. Not appearing in the Top 50 songs and having both sales increases and spincreases. This is an interesting year.

Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s also possible that he did do radio interviews today or yesterdayà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ it seems like a number of those are done each day, but not all of those become known widely.

I do not think that is possible unless Archie was only giving an interview on his sister’s karaoke machine. I’m constantly amazed at how even the most minor of Idol interviews burbles out onto the internet within seconds. I well remember Season 5 in which we got daily updates of all the radio interviews that Ace was doing. That guy was a trooper.

I sure hope 19E is not holding him back for their “winner.” WTH at Jonas Brothers opening at 720k, passing Coldplay?

It isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t a given for Idols to get to number one on the iTunes chart. Cook did it, but who remembers the last time that happened to an Idol before him? And Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales was fueled with the post-AI euphoria.

Well, David Cook sold very well before the finale, not just post AI. A few of his songs such as Billie Jean and Always Be My Baby went to number one on iTunes in the “unofficial” chart (the official one filtered out the AI songs while the competition was still on), although we may never know how many were sold.

I sure hope 19E is not holding him back for their à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“winner.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

Does 19E have anything to do with this? Aren’t they his management? I think promotion is up to the label and Jive has no loyalty to David Cook.

Yes 19E is Archie’s management. Management are in charge of booking appearances, interviews, etc, not the label.

Does 19E have anything to do with this? Arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t they his management?

I don’t know who his management is. It wouldn’t be 19E, though. 19M handles management for the 19Alphabet. They have to be a different legal entity from 19R (the recording part of 19Alphabet which they are signed to in addition to a Sony/BMG company)

I think promotion is up to the label and Jive has no loyalty to David Cook.

Label does do the single/album promotion. Cook is with RCA so he will have a different marketing team. Artist management is responsible for things like tours.

WTH at Jonas Brothers opening at 720k, passing Coldplay?

Yes, if those numbers hold, they will outsell Coldplay. I seem to recall that Disney kids actually seem to outsell their one day predictions because they sell better than expected on the weekend.

I sure hope 19E is not holding him back for their à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“winner.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

The song was released less than 24 hours ago, is getting decent radio play 2 weeks before it goes for adds, and is number 1 on iTunes and 19E is purposefully holding him back for the sake of David Cook who currently has nothing to promote other than 3 month old rainbows and no new single on the horizon? Is there something better than #1? Archie doesn’t seem like a victim in this scenario.

I’m sure 19E cares most about the bottom line and will milk both Davids for as much $$$ as possible. I don’t think they care at this point which David makes them more money as long as they both make a lot. I would expect DA to ultimately be a bigger single-seller based on his genre.

Archie’s extracurricular promotional activities will probably pick up once the song officially goes for ads, the video is done, the tour is done, the album is done, etc. He’s a busy boy.

In this case 19M is managing both guys. How can they assure that there is no conflict interest, or there is no holding back Archie for their “winner?” I think this is kind of a flawed system, and 19M should only be allowed to sign one contestant each season.

The management should get Archie in Ryan’s show and other radio interviews, especially Ryan is connected to 19. Archie is doing well with little promotion. It doesn’t mean that his management shouldn’t have done more.

ETA: I remember Clay did sue to get out of his management because they put Ruben’s interest first.

In this case 19M is managing both guys. How can they assure that there is no conflict interest, or there is no holding back Archie for their à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“winner?à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  I think this is kind of a flawed system, and 19M should only be allowed to sign one contestant each season.

The management should get Archie in Ryanà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s show and other radio interviews, especially Ryan is connected to 19. Archie is doing well with little promotion. It doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t mean that his management shouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have done more.

ETA: I remember Clay did sue to get out of his management because they put Rubenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interest first.

There’s absolutely no indication that Archie is getting any type of raw deal from 19M. If anything, he is being treated extremely well. Nothing that has happened, post-Idol, indicates that Archie’s being cast aside.

Jive will handle the promotion for “Crush,” and thus far they’ve done a heck of a job strategy-wise. Not only does having “Crush” at #1 allow for free advertising, pulling in more sales, but it also makes it easier on Jive when the song goes for official adds in September. The song is already a proven seller, so there’s less of a chance that radio stations will consider it a risky song to add to their playlist.

19M would be ridiculously stupid to do anything that would hurt Archie’s chances of success with this song. The more successful he is, the more money they get, so why mess with that just because he came in second?

Season 2 isn’t like season 7. At that point it wasn’t acceptable for the runner-up to do better than the winner. Since then, Clay proved that he could be more successful, as did Daughtry, Kellie Pickler, Elliot Yamin and even Bucky Covington. I think 19 (all it’s various entities) have determined that it’s more important to make money than to make sure AI’s winner does better at all costs.

ETA: This is not to say that Archie will do better, just that 19M isn’t going to sabotage Archie so he can’t do better.

Since no one else seems to be mentioning it:
Congrats to Jordin, Cookie, Carrie and Leona on their sales increases this week.

As far as multiple buying campaigns not driving music sales: remember Clay.
If ever there was a fan base like the Claymates, it is the Archies.I apologize if this is seen as a generalization but look at some of these comments. And I have seen several of them, some who post here, stating their intention to buy 5 to 10 copies per day and they have gifting campaigns going on. They knew this was coming for a month; I don’t think they should be underestimated. These are the same fans who openly admitted to using all of the e-mail addresses on their buddy lists for the TCA campaign to get Archie on the ballot and for voting as well as using multiple e-mail accounts for radio requests. As far as comparing Jordin’s Tattoo to Crush, there is no comparison. Jordin did not and does not have a rabid fan base. She has had to do this on her own merit (with the exception of Chris Brown, of course). Z100′s impact should also not be underestimated. Many songs that appear in the itunes top 10 get very little airplay outside of Z100. For example, Paper Planes by M.I.A. is currently receiving spins at half the number of stations that Archie is getting spins but appears nightly on Z100′s countdown. It sits at #4 on itunes. Secondhand Serenade is another fine example: very little airplay outside of Z100 but consistently in the top 20 at itunes.

As far as 19 holding Archie back in favor of Cook, are you kidding me? If anything the opposite could be said. As was stated by another poster, Cook still has 3-month-old rainbows (a complete misrepresentation of his album, probably won’t even be on the album) with no album single in sight or release date set for his album outside of rumors that he of the moment tasting amateur song will have to release on the same day as he of the Jive produced pop song. Cook is expected to sell a rock album based on TOML with no new single and Archie is expected to sell a pop album based on Crush. Who is being held back?

sherryw, 19 got Cook’s brother an interview on Ryan’s show. And they cannot get Archie who has a single to sell on Ryan’s show? Do you truly believe Archie is the one benefited from the management? Last year Jordin’s Tattoo got played by Ryan almost immediately after it came out.

Anyway I wish 19 has learned from their Ruben-Clay situation, and no longer trying to do a half-ass job when coming to their runner-up who has a great potential.

As far as multiple buying campaigns not driving music sales: remember Clay.
If ever there was a fan base like the Claymates, it is the Archies.I apologize if this is seen as a generalization but look at some of these comments.

Well, that’s not true. As I have previously posted, Claymates are aged 50-70 while Archie fans (do they have a name?) are clearly aged 8-10. LOL. I kid.

I’m sorry, but even Claymates do not live up to the reputation of Claymates. If Claymates truly had the rabid, never-ending multiple-buying mojo that fueled sales of his first album, why didn’t it fuel sales of his last album? Did they all die? They can’t be that rabid if they’ve all given up already. Taylor fans were called the new Claymates. They had buying plans and they all fizzled because 20 crazy people posting all over the internet to buy-buy-buy can’t actually make that much of a difference. Even if they all go crazy and buy 20 copies, that is still just 400 units – a drop in the bucket.

Are there crazy Clay and Taylor and Kelly and Daughtry and Blake and Cookie and Archie fans out there? You bet. I can probably in 5 minutes find evidence of militant wings of all of them. But the majority of people aren’t that looney and it’s the majority that counts.

This boogey-man comes up everytime an Idol is a success, but gets conveniently ignored when they fall on their faces.

If the Archie fans are so all-powerful, why didn’t one of their three favourite songs end up as the coronation song? That didn’t even cost any money to vote for. Instead, some ditty that nobody admits to liking won (well, I didn’t see anybody singing it’s praises before it was announced as the winner – some people have grown to like it).

As far as 19 holding Archie back in favor of Cook, are you kidding me? If anything the opposite could be said. As was stated by another poster, Cook still has 3-month-old rainbows (a complete misrepresentation of his album, probably wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t even be on the album) with no album single in sight or release date set for his album outside of rumors that he of the moment tasting amateur song will have to release on the same day as he of the Jive produced pop song. Cook is expected to sell a rock album based on TOML with no new single and Archie is expected to sell a pop album based on Crush. Who is being held back?

I guess that I must keep repeating this until somebody hears me. The record label is responsible for selecting singles and promoting albums/singles. Archie is on Jive and Cookie is on RCA. I know that a lot of people thought that Archie was being tossed to the trash-heap of Sony/BMG when he was signed to Jive, but Jive has a good track record with teen and pop acts. The strategy for marketing such acts is clearly different than marketing a rock act. RCA did a good job with their strategy with Daughtry so I wouldn’t say that Cookie is being held back. It seems they are following the same playbook. Expect similar moves.

I don’t know why this has to turn into some kind of Archie vs Cookie war here. This is going to be a long summer/fall/winter if it does. Cookie has had all kinds of success with his coronation song. It’s doing well on airplay and on sales. It’s surpassing many previous coronations singles. Archie has just had a huge success as well.

To me, I see this as a win-win-win-win-win scenario. Go Everybody! Sure, Archie is getting a bit more press today because his single is new and it’s doing great things. I remember that people were happy when Cookie’s single came out and when Hallelujah decimated the iTunes chart. People cheer for the new good news. I think that’s great. There is room for more than one person to be a success.

I love numbers. I love interesting numbers. That is all. If interesting numbers result in fanwars, MJ might ban this topic. I would rather that did not happen.

M.i.a. “Paper Planes” is being played on many more stations than “Crush,” and has been out longer. It plays on my local Top 40 station in Hawaii, which gets songs really late. Secondhand Serenade plays on over double the number of stations as David’s “Crush.” All Access has all the information. It’s been out for awhile.

If ever there was a fan base like the Claymates, it is the Archies.I apologize if this is seen as a generalization but look at some of these comments. And I have seen several of them, some who post here, stating their intention to buy 5 to 10 copies per day and they have gifting campaigns going on. They knew this was coming for a month; I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think they should be underestimated. . . . As far as comparing Jordinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Tattoo to Crush, there is no comparison. Jordin did not and does not have a rabid fan base. She has had to do this on her own merit (with the exception of Chris Brown, of course).

I agree with Kirsten that these types of gifting/buying campaigns don’t do as much as we think they do. People active on the internet tend to overestimate the numbers in their ranks. Archie’s fans actively participating on the internet represent such a small fraction of his total fanbase, that it’s just not enough to get “Crush” to #1. I don’t see how he could have gotten to #1 by anything other than his own merit, just like Jordin. Just as we shouldn’t jump to the conclusion that Archie will be the world’s #1 selling artist ever, we shouldn’t downplay this achievement, either. All artists that reach the #1 spot on iTunes do so based on their own merit because they inspired the sales behind the ranking.

As far as 19 holding Archie back in favor of Cook, are you kidding me? If anything the opposite could be said. As was stated by another poster, Cook still has 3-month-old rainbows (a complete misrepresentation of his album, probably wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t even be on the album) with no album single in sight or release date set for his album outside of rumors that he of the moment tasting amateur song will have to release on the same day as he of the Jive produced pop song. Cook is expected to sell a rock album based on TOML with no new single and Archie is expected to sell a pop album based on Crush. Who is being held back?

I agree that Archie isn’t being held back, but I disagree that Cook is. RCA simply has a different strategy than Jive, as well they should. Cook isn’t looking to take advantage of the teen market. People in their 20s-30s buy singles and albums differently. I think it’s a little odd that we haven’t heard anything about a real single from Cook, but 19 doesn’t have anything to do with that decisions–RCA does. And RCA has nothing to do with Archie.

Numbers anyone? The top 50 of the Hot 100 has leaked:

Top 5 to compare with the estimates we had earlier:
1 RIHANNA DISTURBIA (3)
2 CHRIS BROWN FOREVER (2)
3 KATY PERRY I KISSED A GIRL (1)
4 RIHANNA TAKE A BOW (4)
5 M.I.A. PAPER PLANES (HOMELAND SECURIT (16)
6 COLDPLAY VIVA LA VIDA (5)

Idols:
24 JORDIN SPARKS ONE STEP AT A TIME (31)
35 JORDIN SPARKS DUET NO AIR (37)
36 DAVID COOK THE TIME OF MY LIFE (39)

Plus:
98 CARRIE UNDERWOOD JUST A DREAM (OFF)

Congrats to Cook and Jordin for their increase!!

Last year Jordinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Tattoo got played by Ryan almost immediately after it came out.

Well, Jordin won American Idol so that would make sense. Winners get some perks because what’s the point of “taking the crown.”

If Claymates truly had the rabid, never-ending multiple-buying mojo that fueled sales of his first album, why didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t it fuel sales of his last album? Did they all die?

Well look what’s happened to Clay since he was on American Idol. Some of the rumors about him are, even to his most rabid fans, probably true. It matters to some people. His latest “baby” news may have also driven away some fans. His voice is still what it was but his album contained songs that all sounded the same to me, all ballads and I was very disappointed and bored and regretted buying his CD. His voice can’t be beat though but I think other factors came into play. His biggest success was his tours as fans followed him from venue to venue. They had the time and the means and the money to do that. Songs only cost you .99 cents plus tax.

Just as we shouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t jump to the conclusion that Archie will be the worldà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s #1 selling artist ever, we shouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t downplay this achievement, either.

Wow, that is pretty optimistic with #1 WORLD selling artist. There aren’t too many people who can achieve that; however, his genre is tween/pop and there is plenty of competition and many talented artists and Archie has achieved so much. He’ll have success probably for a few years I’m sure but tweens grow up and new young artists stars are always waiting and appearing on the scene and no doubt you’ll see one or two new young contestants competing on AI this new season and if they get to the finale–they will be dubbed as #1 world selling artist.

As far as 19 holding Archie back in favor of Cook, are you kidding me? If anything the opposite could be said.

Archie was the runner up, Cook is the American Idol. Last year, they had a little thing on the show where Clive Davis presided and his mantra was “It pays to win.” Don’t get me wrong–the bottom line is how much money the Davids will make for them. Blake Lewis, 2nd place finisher, just like Archie, was treated very poorly and hardly got any promotion. I couldn’t even find his CD in stores and it was never displayed in a stack of new releases. By contrast, Archie is getting as much promotion as Cook and even Cook is promoting his fans to buy Archie’s Crush and also KLC’s stuff. I’ve never seen that before–have you? That’s a person who recognizes there’s room for everyone in the music business as it would be very boring if there were only a few artists that were “good.”

Archie is on Jive and Cookie is on RCA.

They put you where you fit. Since they are totally different genres, the best label for Archie is Jive–just like Jordin. Jive wants to hit the market when you are hot and will keep at it. Look what they’ve done with Jordin. She was not put on the “American Idol Winner” label because she is being marketed differently–the tweens who buy differently.

Cook has announced he’s hoping the album is released mid November. They always try to release it prior to Thanksgiving–the big CD/stocking stuffer thing. Cook’s genre will be rock and rock has a much more diverse fan base from tweens to 70 . I don’t want it rushed–I’ll wait. Cook is magic and he’s not going to be forgotten if he doesn’t put out his album quick enough. He already released his single TOML and it’s still going strong. It’s currently under WHAT’S HOT and climbed to #18 on iTunes–3 months and still going strong. And we know this song is “not him” but look what he accomplished with it! Cook wants the album to flow and since rock lovers are more particular about the type of music they buy and how they buy it. Remember some people never watch AI and they won’t buy everything to support him/her–they’ll just buy a song or two if they like it and non Idol fans don’t downloads multiple copies and gift them either. TOML got exposure on SYTYCD, and now the Olympics. It doesn’t get better than the OLYMPICS–not bad for a “magic rainbow” song.

I wish all the idols success and each has their own style and genre.

Kirsten, these Billboard digital numbers do they come from all digital media purchase outlets? For example, are they including iTunes, Amazon, etc.? I’m asking because I don’t have an iPod but a regular mp3 player and downloading from iTunes always gives me fits (which is why I hated the AI exclusive iTunes downloads) because I then have to find a way to convert the mp4 to an mp3.

Anyway, I digress, lol. I just wanted to know if Billboard includes all the various places to download digital music because I normally download from either Amazon or Yahoo (or rather Rhapsody now that they’ve merged) and I’ve noticed that Yahoo/Rhapsody doesn’t have Crush showing up at all under David Archuleta. I’m just wondering for future reference.

Wow, that is pretty optimistic with #1 WORLD selling artist. There arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t too many people who can achieve that; however, his genre is tween/pop and there is plenty of competition and many talented artists and Archie has achieved so much. Heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll have success probably for a few years Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m sure but tweens grow up and new young artists stars are always waiting and appearing on the scene and no doubt youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ll see one or two new young contestants competing on AI this new season and if they get to the finaleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’they will be dubbed as #1 world selling artist.

I made that statement as an exaggeration used for effect. I didn’t mean it literally, nor would I expect that type of success. It was just to make a point, and in context I think it does make a point.

At this time, I think it would be premature to estimate Archie’s potential for longevity. Yes, Jive is going after a teen market now, but other artists have done so early in their career and transitioned to more mature music. Their audience grew with them. Justin Timberlake and Christina Aguilera come to mind. It’s a tough thing to do, but Archie’s an incredibly talented guy. We’ve heard talk that he’s quite a good lyricist, and although he downplays his own talent in songwriting, those who have heard his songs say they are quite fantastic. Jive apparently gave him the go-ahead to record 4 out of the 5 songs he wrote for the album. Time will tell if they’re ultimately included.

This first album is just a starting point, coming from a brand new artist who has never recorded an album before. He needs radio airplay and sales in order to get that coveted second album. Nobody expects album #1 to be his defining moment. You can’t have that type of album, starting from scratch, when the only time you have to work on it is days off during a 50 city tour. What’s important is how he uses this opportunity to grow as an artist. People forget that he’s not just a singer–he’s a musician. He writes music, and he plays the piano and guitar. He’s got an instinct for it, and to lump him into the tween-pop crowd of one-hit wonders would do a disservice to him.

It’s not even tweens or teens who are buying “Crush.” Sure, Jive is marketing to them (and that’s smart), but Archie’s fanbase is far broader than that. Pop isn’t just for the very young. “Crush” isn’t teen pop–it’s pop sung by a teenager. Teen/tween pop (or bubblegum) is far more saccharine, and you’re likely to find it on the soundtrack of the latest Disney Channel movie.

Kirsten, thank you for finding and putting out all of this information. I also like numbers, and feel spoiled by the fact that we don’t have to wait for information until it is officially published.

Also, thank you for all of the information above about sales, how the Hot 100 is calculated, etc. Interesting stuff.

Kirsten, these Billboard digital numbers do they come from all digital media purchase outlets?

They should. All of the major digital outlets report numbers to Soundscan (which are used by Billboard for its charts). There might be some minor vendors that do not report to SoundScan, but it’s so easy to do, I don’t know why they wouldn’t.

SoundScan does miss some physical sales because not all vendors have equipment that can monitor for them. It’s often estimated that SS numbers can be off by 10% for physical media.

Amazon, iTunes and Rhapsody all report. Don’t worry about Archie not showing up on Rhapsody yet. Sometimes, there are little blips in getting their systems straightened out. iTunes sometimes messes up release dates much to the annoyance of fans.

Kirsten, thank you for finding and putting out all of this information.

You’re welcome. I find this stuff fascinating.

à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t teen popà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s pop sung by a teenager. Teen/tween pop (or bubblegum) is far more saccharine, and youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re likely to find it on the soundtrack of the latest Disney Channel movie.

According to Wikepedia, “Teen pop is music that is marketed and oriented toward teenagers. Teen pop covers genres and styles such as pop, dance-pop and urban.” So I would definitely classify “Crush” as teen pop.

I am glad to see the idols doing well. I don’t understand why someone would buy more than one copy of a song. It doesn’t give the artest more fans, just the same number of fans buying more downloads. I do not like to compare artests. I prefer David Cook to David Archuleta just as I prefer Alanis Morrisette to Myley Cyrus. It happens to be what I like to listen to. I wish all the current Idols success.

This has been an interesting thread. I’m bookmarking it in case I ever want to refresh myself on this information again. Thanks to all who contributed!

According to Wikepedia, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Teen pop is music that is marketed and oriented toward teenagers. Teen pop covers genres and styles such as pop, dance-pop and urban.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  So I would definitely classify à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Crushà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  as teen pop.

Then most of the Top 40 is teen pop. I’m going with the definition of teen pop I’ve had in my head for over 10 years back when teen pop made a resurgence.

I was not saying anything to downplay Archie’s success. I was simply stating that there are several factors involved: a rabid fan base, multiple purchases, Z100 and the JB piggy back. Regardless of any factors involved, it is still impressive and no one is negating that. I don’t understand how that is downplaying but this is not:

And Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales was fueled with the post-AI
euphoria.

Almost one million total downloads in one week fueled by just post-AI euphoria? I need some of that for my car. And I don’t think that can explain how the song is in the top 20 at itunes 3 months later. Has any other coronation song done that? But I guess that’s only because of the Olympics, right? Cook has done very well with the crap he has to work with but that is consistently downplayed. And I completely disagree that a rock artist isn’t being held back by having nothing more than Magic Rainbows to sell an album.

RCA did a good job with their strategy with
Daughtry so I wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t say that Cookie is being
held back. It seems they are following the
same playbook. Expect similar moves.

I have seen absolutely nothing to indicate this. You seem quite knowledgeable; please elaborate.
At this point, I expect nothing more than an album that I can buy. I am not after any type of fanwar either. But it will indeed be a long summer/fall/winter for the Cook fans who continue to post (I’m beginning to see why so few Daughtry fans do) if he keeps getting referred to as the “winner” (complete with quotation marks) and compare him to the dismal failures of S2 and S5. What has he done to deserve that? But somehow, comments like that are OK and mine are frowned upon…. okay, then.

What a great discussion. It’s been very informative.

What I just want is clarification or better yet, citation for this….

I remember Clay did sue to get out of his management because they put Rubenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interest first.

Following season 2 as closely as I did, and it’s aftermath, I certainly saw no indication of this, certainly this wasn’t the reason he sued.

I think certain things become folklore, yet are totally untrue. This is an one of those times. When something like this is said, certainly proof must be offered.

I was not saying anything to downplay Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s success. I was simply stating that there are several factors involved: a rabid fan base, multiple purchases, Z100 and the JB piggy back. Regardless of any factors involved, it is still impressive and no one is negating that. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t understand how that is downplaying but this is not:

And Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales was fueled with the post-AI
euphoria.

There are so many reasons why a song gets played on the radio and people download it off of iTunes. Even if Archie had won, the sales immediately following the finale would be due primarily to post-AI euphoria. That’s how it always works, and it’s how Taylor Hicks wound up with #1 on the Hot 100. He’s not a typical seller because his genre is so specialized, but he was a seller with the coronation song. The discussion about TOML was about its initial sales as compared to what will be “Crush”‘s initial sales. The point was that it wasn’t a fair comparison. But TOML’s initial sales don’t have much to do with its sales now.

The Olympics helped TOML, as did its use on SYTYCD, albeit to a smaller degree. That’s all promotion, and it’s supposed to help. If “Crush” were used on a TV show, that would be part of its promotion and we would expect that it would help with sales. People who haven’t thought about the song, or never watched AI, liked it and downloaded it, even months after the show ended. But the fact that promotion helped the song doesn’t downplay the singer’s success with it.

No song’s success is entirely driven by the artist. The greatest musician in the world could release the greatest song in the world, but it wouldn’t sell 100 copies if it wasn’t promoted. People have to know about the song before they can figure out if they like it.

All those marketing strategies Jive used–getting it premiered on Z100 and out there in the east coast before its radio impact date and releasing the song on a day they knew people they were targeting would be on iTunes–doesn’t diminish Archie’s success anymore than sales via TOML’s play during the Olympics diminishes Cook’s success. Those piggybacking Jonas Brothers fans wouldn’t have bought the song if they didn’t like it. And if by “rabid fanbase” you mean intensely loyal, then yes, it seems he has that too. That’s a very good thing.

Indeed, I think Archie’s success has very little to do with Cook’s success, and vice versa. So we’re getting very off track here. I think the whole notion that either one is getting shafted isn’t logical. Cook is likely not releasing a real single from his album yet because either (1) RCA believes TOML can ride a little longer, or (2) he’s just not ready with one. He might have recorded several songs for his album, but that doesn’t mean he has that first single yet. The last thing RCA wants to do is sabotage Cook.

Then most of the Top 40 is teen pop. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m going with the definition of teen pop Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve had in my head for over 10 years back when teen pop made a resurgence.

Speaking of Teen pop resurgence, Rolling Stone gave The Jonas Brother’s most recent album four stars in their reviews.

Here’s a direct quote: “The Jonas Brothers are acting their dad’s age. The boy’s fantastic third album is steeped in the fuzzed-up guitars, three-part harmonies and cotton-candy choruses of Big Star and Cheap Trick. Power-pop die-hards awaiting the genre’s commercial saviors must reckon with the fact that the messiahs have arrived…and they’re a Disney boy band.”

They also talk about how they co-wrote every song and touch on R&B and balladeering.

Sorry, I have the physical copy of the mag here, so no link.

I guess my point is (even though this is one perspective) DA and the Archies should be proud if he is compared in any way to The Jonas Brothers. But perhaps that’s for another thread

I’ve enjoyed this thread too! Thank you Kirsten for all of your hard work!

Okay, and what I’ve posted has little to do with numbers other than a 4-star opinion.

reinharv Aug 13th, 2008 at 8:11 pm

If Claymates truly had the rabid, never-ending multiple-buying mojo that fueled sales of his first album, why didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t it fuel sales of his last album? Did they all die?

Well look whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s happened to Clay since he was on American Idol. Some of the rumors about him are, even to his most rabid fans, probably true. It matters to some people. His latest à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“babyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  news may have also driven away some fans. His voice is still what it was but his album contained songs that all sounded the same to me, all ballads and I was very disappointed and bored and regretted buying his CD. His voice canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t be beat though but I think other factors came into play. His biggest success was his tours as fans followed him from venue to venue. They had the time and the means and the money to do that. Songs only cost you .99 cents plus tax.

The difference is radio play and promotion. The multiple buying thing is an urban legend. Not that the fans didn’t buy more than one and/or gift them to friends etc, but that is standard for Idols across the boards. Every fan base buys multiples.

The main difference is that his first album was promoted to radio with 3 hit singles and there were no digital downloads available at the time. You still can’t buy “Invisible” at iTunes and haven’t been able to all along. That ensures that he can’t sell any digital albums because you can’t complete the track list and you won’t find his CDs on the shelves in the stores. This was likely a decision by 19 to hold back his sales numbers. Their recording contracts are with 19/Sony/BMG. 19 has control over their recording and promotional decisions. According to RCA press releases from 2006 he has sold over 3 million of that debut CD yet RCA never certified it. Without the certification he gets no credit for being triple platinum. If there had been another supported single he could have easily sold a few million more but it was more important to 19 that he not overshadow the winners any more than he already had at the time.

Since early 2004 he’s had no support to radio, no videos and little promotion. Many people who bought the first album don’t even know there’s a new one out. If the vindictive tabloids are a reason to not buy an artist’s music then I have to wonder why having a baby is worse than being a junkie or a pedophile. It hasn’t hurt Amy Winehouse or R.Kelly to name a few. Brangelina have six assorted kids from 5 countries, aren’t married and used IVF to get their twins. Why are they not vilified yet Clay and Jaymes are? I’ll tell you why. Its because of PR spin. For Brangelina its a miracle and a blessing and for Clay and Jaymes its spun as a freak show. Clay’s son is as much of a miracle and a blessing as any other wanted child, even if they aren’t married.

Certainly the tabloids and the blackballing at radio hasn’t helped but the people that know the CD is out bought it, They wouldn’t buy a digital single because they already have it on the CD. Without radio and further promotion there aren’t going to be new sales. Look at all of the other idols without radio or 19 behind them. They are in the same boat. Are you saying that they don’t deserve better treatment because they are not your chosen genre?

It isn’t a reflection on the quality of the music but on the lack of promotion. If you bought a CD by an artist known for singing ballads, why were you surprised that he sang ballads? There is actually quite a mix of styles and tempos on Clay’s latest but I won’t argue that point.

If Cook’s album is all rock will you be upset that the songs all sound the same? Daughtry and Nickleback are practically indistinguishable from each other in style and sound. They don’t have people complaining that their songs all sound the same and with radio play they are selling very very well.

Kelly’s sales have really slipped with her last CD yet she is still as good a singer as she was before, but this time she got less promotion, even some negative press and no radio support. Will she get it on the next one? Will she sell less than the last one? Its up to 19/RCA to decide. Look at the ones that are getting the good promotion to radio. Carrie, Daughtry, Cook, Jordin and Archie. They are all with 19. So was Kelly in the beginning with Breakaway.

Clay’s single is being used by the Korean national TV network to promote their daily Olympic coverage. It is played during medal awards ceremonies, in promo spots for Olympic coverage and during the end credits every night. Clay has a large fan following in Korea as well and he’s never been there. If his music wasn’t good, if you think that the fact that US radio not playing it is any indication of quality, then it wouldn’t get that kind of attention overseas either. You can bank on it that 19 had nothing to do with it, they just like the song. At this point his international sales is probably outselling his US numbers.

I’ll say it again. I hope that Clay’s contract with Sony is over and that he doesn’t sign with them again. They are in deep collusion with 19 management and they only promote the ones they can make their 50% on. Clay was the first to fire 19 management. Kelly followed in 2005. Ruben left, So did Fantasia. Taylor chose to go with the Firm right off of his win. Their careers have been slipping ever since and it isn’t because of their music. Its a dirty business.

I was not saying anything to downplay Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s success. I was simply stating that there are several factors involved: a rabid fan base, multiple purchases, Z100 and the JB piggy back. Regardless of any factors involved, it is still impressive and no one is negating that.

Some people are negating it. And stating things do not make them facts. Many people disagree that bulk buying has any effect. If you would like to peruse the archives, I’ve been saying the same thing for two years. Both for artists I like and those I do not like. I’ve watched these pledges to bulk buy be posted for almost every Idol (even Ayla Brown) and they look impressive, but they don’t seem to have any effect from week to week. I remember one person trying to get Taylor’s single numbers over a certain milestone. All these pledges would be posted and the sales would actually go down the next week. And we are talking only a 1000 units a week. All that noise. No effect. Surely a “large group” of “rabid” fans could have budged a number that low. I’ve seen another site try some money train thing for a Season 6 artist, no effect. I remember when Ace’s very first single came out. From the shear volume of posts here and elsewhere, I thought he was going to move at least 20,000 units. He moved 800.

And all Idol fan bases have some kind of buying scheme. No fan base can legitimately claim they do not. So, when somebody says that some Idol has success because of their “rabid fan base” I do consider that negating that Idol’s success and I also consider that a little rude. How would any of us like to be called “rabid”? Rabid like a mad dog? That’s painting an entire fan base as mad dogs. Every fan base has their “militant wing”, but I don’t think that should taint everybody. Sure, it’s funny if it is a joke, but I’m not sure it’s always meant as a joke.

I actually think these bulk buying schemes are kind of sad. I worry that people who maybe aren’t too bright are spending their food money on trying to get these numbers up (certainly, people are posting that they are breaking into their savings to bulk buy. Who knows if it is true?). Thus, I don’t like to give bulk buying schemes any credibility. Don’t do it people! Bulk buying doesn’t help and it only makes your Idol open to ridicule.

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t understand how that is downplaying but this is not:

And Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales was fueled with the post-AI euphoria.

Some people were saying that all Idol songs go to number 1. It’s true that almost all coronation songs do go to number 1, but that’s not true of later releases. They don’t tend to go to number 1 the day they are released (I can’t think of one that did). I wasn’t trying to downplay Cook’s success. It’s just that I wanted to compare apples to apples. I have said repeatedly (even in this thread) that Cook has had a major achievement. But I do think that history shows that coronation singles tend to do better out of the gate than later singles do initially (later singles can go on over time to do much better numbers than coronation singles). That’s because American Idol fans have become invested in the Idols watching the show. Fans immediately start to drift over the summer to new interests. Coronation singles are a different kettle of fish from summer releases and their track records are different. Even for a coronation single, Cook was very successful and there is no taking anything away from him. So, I was only trying to say that coronation singles are special cases and summer releases are more comparable to other summer releases. That’s not to say Cook won’t have similar monster successes when his singles are released. It’s just that when I said “when was the last time a single went to number one”, I didn’t want people to say that “almost every coronation single has done that”. Cook just happened to have the latest coronation single.

Almost one million total downloads in one week fueled by just post-AI euphoria? I need some of that for my car. And I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think that can explain how the song is in the top 20 at itunes 3 months later. Has any other coronation song done that? But I guess thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s only because of the Olympics, right? Cook has done very well with the crap he has to work with but that is consistently downplayed.

I see that as a strawman argument. I myself and others in this thread have said that ToML has done very well. I see lots of people on this blog having positive things to say about David Cook and ToML in this and other threads. Many posters (including me, I love numbers way too much) were practically giddy when Cook’s post-Ai numbers came out. They were and still are amazing. I think that is a mischaracterization to say that MJ’s Blog is an anti-Cook website.

And I completely disagree that a rock artist isnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t being held back by having nothing more than Magic Rainbows to sell an album.

All coronation songs have credibility issues. At least ToML isn’t “Inside My Heaven” (poor Bo). I seriously doubt that RCA will have Cook go around singing ToML this fall to promote his album. I’m sure that he will have one of those cool new songs he is writing. Fans shouldn’t worry about this. It happens every year.

RCA did a good job with their strategy with
Daughtry so I wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t say that Cookie is being
held back. It seems they are following the
same playbook. Expect similar moves.

I have seen absolutely nothing to indicate this. You seem quite knowledgeable; please elaborate.

Sure thing. Daughtry and Cook were both presented during the show as “Original Artists”. During the summer press tour, we were peppered with stories about how both Daughtry and Cook were writing songs with credible rock artists. Both Daughtry and Cook were/are lauded for being songwriters. Both Daughtry and Cook were given producers who have proven track records in producing successful (both financially and critically) rock albums. Both are on RCA.

So far, RCA seems to have them on similar paths. Granted, it’s still early days, but I would be puzzled if RCA would deviate too far from the marketing path that was so successful before. I predict that they will start ramping up album news in September. By October, we will get sample songs on Yahoo (and places like that). They will also have Cook doing radio tours and acoustic sets. They will probably drop a single for Cook before the album comes out, though, because I think Daughtry would have sold even better if they had done that.

Daughtry was successful because of great talent and great songs, but I think RCA did a pretty good job of producing and marketing the album as well. There were a few mis-steps (IMO), but that probably only means that they won’t make the same mis-steps with Cook. “Crush” is a summer single. Rock albums tend to be more suited for the fall winter. These are just different strategies. The labels have been doing this stuff for years. I don’t think they are going to fritter away sales potential like Cook’s. And I’m not trying to say Cook’s album will be a clone of Daughtry’s (they are different artists, so I think they will have very different albums), just that the marketting strategies will be parallelish.

At this point, I expect nothing more than an album that I can buy

I think that it’s far too early to start hangwringing about this. I’m quite sure that Cook will get a single released. I would be shocked if he didn’t get a media tour for his album release. I would even be comfortable predicting that he will get to go on all the major talk shows and probably even perform on New Year’s Eve. I bet he even gets multiple versions of his album with at least one exclusive bonus track. Really, I don’t think RCA is trying to bury him. The press releases all seem quite positive and those artists/producers he is working with are very credible. Please look them up (or troll through MJs archives) if you think that RCA is sticking Cook with a bunch of duffers. They aren’t. RCA is taking great care with this album. He isn’t going to sing a bunch of covers and Diane Warren ballads! Have faith. It’s always a little scarey with Idol albums, but it seems like this one at least has good writers (Cook is no slouch, either).

I am not after any type of fanwar either. But it will indeed be a long summer/fall/winter for the Cook fans who continue to post (Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m beginning to see why so few Daughtry fans do) if he keeps getting referred to as the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“winnerà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  (complete with quotation marks) and compare him to the dismal failures of S2 and S5. What has he done to deserve that? But somehow, comments like that are OK and mine are frowned uponà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦. okay, then.

I don’t think that anybody side should be fanwarring. Really, everybody, I think one does more damage to one’s favourite by fanwarring than one does to the competition. I frequently see people saying that they hate (insert Idol) because of how their fans behave. Meanwhile, some people will actually buy some song they don’t even like because they appreciate how nice such-and-such Idol and his fans are.

I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’m certainly not going to buy “Crush” or “Time of My Life”. Neither is my kind of song. I just think “Crush”‘s iTunes run right now is interesting. It’s new and it is a little unprecedented for Idol debut summer releases.

Wow Kirsten. I think I love you. LOL. That is all.

Great discussion everyone!

Oh BTW, Cook apparently told a fan that he’s laying down vocals on what should be the single tomorrow. So if the report is accurate, there is a single on the horizon.

Cool heads prevail. Kirsten FTW! :lol_wp:

This has been a very interesting conversation. I do agree that I don’t think either Idol is being sabotaged and their labels are using strategies that have either worked in the past (RCA) or that they feel can target their desired demographic (Jive). I think both Cookie and Archie would agree that neither is being thrown under any bus.

I’ve heard that fanwars can pop up prior to CD releases, I think I may need to brace myself for that and grow some thicker skin :eek_wp: But even though I’m a staunch Cook fan, that certainly doesn’t mean that I don’t wish Archie success. I don’t believe that one has to fail for the other to succeed.

Now that I’ve gone totally offtopic, I think in my previous posts I’ve been remiss in not congratulating the Idols who have enjoyed increased sales. I think only Jennifer Hudson’s showed a decrease which surprised me since I thought Spotlight would do well in the R&B market.

I think only Jennifer Hudsonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s showed a decrease which surprised me since I thought Spotlight would do well in the R&B market.

She is doing well in the R&B market. Her song is number 13 on the R&B airplay chart. The problem is that R&B radio success does not necessarily translate to sales success unless you get a cross-over hit (or you sing Rap). Pop radio is the king of pushing download sales (Country radio is even less successful than R&B and AC is practically useless).

That’s one reason they changed the Hot 100 formula recently. Pop was starting to dominate it because of the sales. The new formula creates a better balance between the Pop and R&B formats.

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t believe that one has to fail for the other to succeed.

I totally agree.

So, when somebody says that some Idol has success because of their à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“rabid fan baseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  I do consider that negating that Idolà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s success and I also consider that a little rude. How would any of us like to be called à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“rabidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ? Rabid like a mad dog? Thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s painting an entire fan base as mad dogs. Every fan base has their à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“militant wingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , but I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think that should taint everybody. Sure, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s funny if it is a joke, but Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not sure ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s always meant as a joke.

It was his own fans that wanted to be voted/called “the most rabid fanbase”. They were “rabid” enough to get on the Teen Choice Awards for the “most rabid fanbase” and they won that honor. They seemed ecstatic that they won and when I asked in a previous post if it was good to win that honor (because to me seemed a negative for the reasons that you stated “mad dog” image etc), fans came back and said they loved it and did not think it was a bad thing. You can’t have it both ways. The fans wanted the “rabid” title and got it. People should not complain now if others refer to them as rabid.

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t believe that one has to fail for the other to succeed.

I don’t think one has to fail for the other to succeed, but I do think the comparisons will be there at least for the first albums and singles. The guys are in completely different markets, which in itself should mean different sales strategies and different sales expectations. BUT – I will eat my hat gladly if when David C’s single comes out, if indeed it sells less than Archie or takes longer to build steam, their sales won’t be compared by fans to try and make DC look bad. The fact that one sells pop to the teenage masses and one will sell rock to a far different crowd, will not matter – what will matter is who sold more.

That’s not the way it should be, but it’s the way it will be.
Expecting these kinds of sales with anything that’s not as digestable as pop fluff, is probably not very wise, either.
It doesn’t matter – things are the way they are, but to say this has no impact on DC sounds like turning a blind eye to me.

It doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t matter – things are the way they are, but to say this has no impact on DC sounds like turning a blind eye to me.

Yeah, I agree that the comparison game is inevitable. It happens every year. That said, I don’t know how much impact that really has on anything. The fanwar stuff is unpleasant but it really only affects those who post on internet sites. LOL. It’s not the Claymate’s negative posting that killed Reuben’s career, or Daughtry fans that made Taylor’s label drop him. They didn’t have enough hit records. Now, the media gave both bad press…. and I have no doubt there will be some bad press if Archie outsells Cook… but if Cook still sells enough to make a nice profit and look sustainable to his label, he’ll get to keep putting out albums. Maybe I’m a little pollyana-ish, but I tend not to worry about fanwars too much. Cook has a number of records he needs to sell regardless what Archie does.

I agree Jolene, I do think that comparisons are inevitable. I’ve noticed that they still go on even years after a season has ended. But I still hate reading negative stuff about Cookie so I think when his CD drops, I’m going to bury my head in the sand and not read any reviews. Maybe I’m being fangirlish but I truly believe Cook will be successful. He may not end up moving as many units as Archie but I don’t know that that would be odd for his genre of music. I haven’t cared enough to pay attention in the past but from what I inferred from one of Kirsten’s posts, I’m assuming no genre moves as many units as pop.

They were à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“rabidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  enough to get on the Teen Choice Awards for the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“most rabid fanbaseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  and they won that honor. They seemed ecstatic that they won and when I asked in a previous post if it was good to win that honor (because to me seemed a negative for the reasons that you stated à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“mad dogà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  image etc), fans came back and said they loved it and did not think it was a bad thing.

I always thought the Teen Choice Awards were meant to have a lot of humour in them. The fans consider themselves “rabid” in a fun way. I’ve seen too many fangroups called “rabid” by others in a negative way to believe that the two are equivalent.

You canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have it both ways. The fans wanted the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“rabidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  title and got it. People should not complain now if others refer to them as rabid.

Sure, you can. Just ask Anne of Green Gables. It’s quite one thing for her to say she doesn’t like her red hair and quite another thing for Mrs. Lynne to say she doesn’t like her red hair while being rude to her. Or another example. Say, you said “I can’t have that donut or I’ll be too fat to get through the door”. Does that give everybody carte blanche to say “Hey, fatty, why don’t you put the fork down once and a while.” It’s all in the intent and the context. The term “blonde” can be positive and negative. I don’t see calling people looney bulk buyers and negating the achievements of somebody positive. But that is just me.

May I make a small suggestioin to all fan groups? If you are thinking of making a generalization about the other group, you might want to think twice about it especially if you are not intending it as a compliment. Fan bases are not homogeneous. There are more differences within a fan group than between fan groups.

Look, numbers can get very contentious. Some fan sites have even banned discussion on them. Let’s all try to be nice about it. I think it’s fair to discuss factors that may be contributing to sales, but I think generalizations about fan bases can only lead to hurt feelings and fights. Just follow the golden rule people. If you wouldn’t want others generalizing something about the fans of an Idol you like, don’t do it to the other fan groups.

And this is the numbers thread. This should not turn into a meta-discussion about prejudice and rudeness. I just would really, really, really appreciate if people kept the fanwars out of the numbers thread. Please? I believe that fanwars and conspiracy theories are meant to be conducted in Chat.

Interesting comments across the board.

I wouldn’t worry about Cook selling albums. He dominated the downloads during his Season. It’s just impressive that Archie has done so well with the first single. It’s also always fun when the conventional wisdom is wrong. For example, CW: “he can’t do teen pop” (see disastrous attempt to cover Chris Brown song during season). So far his pop song is doing fine and outselling…Chris Brown. Anways, let’s check back in a month and see how Crush is doing. Tattoo started small and turned into a huge hit. So longevity is key.

Top 40 Pop does not move albums btw. Jordin who is doing incredibly well selling singles still hasn’t sold platinum.

As much as Cookie says he’s putting out a rock record I really, really doubt it’s going to be ROCK..like hardcore rock. I’m expecting a bit of Daughtry/Lifehouse sound, a pop/rock sound that will still get played on pop, AC & Hot AC. I could be wrong though.

All I’ll say on the issue is it’s ridiculous to already have someones career buried before it’s barely even started. Long fall/winter indeed. He said yesterday he’s going to be laying down vocals for what should be the single so there WILL be a single..But hey since his career trajectory is on the obvious same path as Taylor’s that means said single will only go to AC radio LOL.

Archie’s “rabid” fanbase online is about 1000. That’s the number of people leaving a comment congratulating him on hitting No. 1 in the biggest Archie fansite, a site that everyone visits daily. Sadly out of the 1000 people a big part of them are tweens/teens waiting for others to gift them because they don’t have a credit card. So that leaves about 600 rabid fans making multiple purchases to put Crush on No.1.

Well done.

As much as Cookie says heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s putting out a rock record I really, really doubt ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s going to be ROCK..like hardcore rock. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m expecting a bit of Daughtryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sound, a pop/rock sound that will still get played on pop, AC & Hot AC. I could be wrong though.

Oh yeah, it well definitely be a pop/rock record. Even his indie stuff was radio friendly rock, so I doubt Cookie’s going all Queensryche on us now. Ha. I think he has great commercial potential. He ain’t exactly working with slouches (Cavallo is not trying to kill is career on this record, I’m sure) and his label seems to know what to do with acts like him. So I expect he will do well. The interesting part is, how will he do compared to Archie? Theres no way to know until both records have been out a minute, but that won’t start people from comparing right away, unfortunately. That said, large Idol fanbases love to send your single to the top of Itunes on it’s first day, so I expect the same thing will happen to Cook’s first real single. Unless he drops the same day as, say, Kelly Clarkson. Then he’s toast. LOL.

I think I have an ulcer. :laugh_tb: Poor David Cook! :flush_tb:

Seriously, I think DA and DC are like the proverbial fork in the road. They’ll go in two opposite directions, and it’s really unknown where they’ll end up, or if the chosen road is the right one. It really is a waiting game. We’ll just have to see if they’ll become the King of the One-Hit-Wonder, Flat-Out Bombs, or Legends-in-the-Making.

The truth of the matter is that American Idol is a lot like high school. The class valedictorian could very well end up homeless. Early success does not necessarily mean lifelong success. I also agree that the big numbers early on for David Cook had a lot to do with post-Idol euphoria. They could be good indicators for his career, or not.

I have a hard time believing that every single one of their American Idol fans will be able to sustain their music careers until the point that they decide to retire or move in a different direction. The trick now is to garner fans who have never, ever been invested in Idol. It’s the “real life” game, now.

I’m sure I’m in the minority here, but I really cannot muster up the slightest bit of worry about David Cook’s “record” or his future career in music. Maybe it’s just me, or maybe it’s just his “it-may-be-a-hit-or-it-may-not” attitude, but I’m pretty relaxed about the whole thing.

Top 40 Pop does not move albums btw. Jordin who is doing incredibly well selling singles still hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t sold platinum.

Rihanna is another example of this. Almost every single she releases becomes both a radio and download hit (often going to number 1), but her album sales aren’t all that great considering her singles success. The industry seems to be developing strategies for people who tend to be “Singles” artists. Meanwhile, people like Groban can’t get any airplay or much download success and he sells albums like hot cakes.

There are many kinds of success in the music biz. There is room for many.

It was his own fans that wanted to be voted/called à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“the most rabid fanbaseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ . They were à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“rabidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  enough to get on the Teen Choice Awards for the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“most rabid fanbaseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  and they won that honor. They seemed ecstatic that they won and when I asked in a previous post if it was good to win that honor (because to me seemed a negative for the reasons that you stated à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“mad dogà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  image etc), fans came back and said they loved it and did not think it was a bad thing. You canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t have it both ways. The fans wanted the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“rabidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  title and got it. People should not complain now if others refer to them as rabid.

Not that it matters, but the award was for most “fanatic” fans. And the TCAs are just for fun. The specific award didn’t matter–Archie’s fans just wanted him to win. Calling yourself “fanatic” is one thing–especially if you really wouldn’t be classified as such by the literal definition of the word. Having other people call you “rabid” is completely different.

It’s a shame when fans run to their corners and begin verbal sparring. The fun part of this thread has been the observation and disscussion about the artists, the stats and what goes into making them, and the predictions and speculation done on various idol’s stats just for the sport of it. Contrasting and comparing artists is a very interesting discussion until it desolves into a my idol versus your idol thing, peppered with defensive, subjective, critical statements because of a feeling that their idol has been “slighted” and their need to defend them. Of course this, in turn, causes others, who did not intentionally slight anyone in the first place, to have to explain and defend what they said over and over. That being said, however, I do think there has been a great deal of intelligence and thought put into most of the posts in this thread, and it has been worthwhile. I have totally enjoyed the information on “the biz.” And, I also enjoy the speculation on careers. I just wish people would not be too sensitive regarding their own favorite, to the point where an intersting, earnest, and lively discussion of careers has difficulty in proceeding. Where Cook and DA are concerned, I hope they both, repeat both, have tremendous careers, and I look forward to following them, in detail, lol…..along with Jason of course . Love, love, love reading your posts Kirstin. Keep bringing those stats for us numbers addicts to pour over!!! lol.

Kirsten, you are amazing. You manage to inform, state your case, back it up, all without imflaming passions. Kudos.

The whole competion thing is a weird offshoot of the voting we do on idol. We somehow can’t let go of that but we need to channel that more positively.

Kirsten is doing a swell job holding the fort in this thread. However, as your blogmistress, I am stepping in to WORD every single thing she has said so far. This thread is about numbers. It should stay that way. It should not turn into a fan war or, yet again, another excuse to handwring prematurely about David Cook’s career. Thank you.

By the way… I just put up the Billboard Chart for this week:

http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-82308/

Wow, what a fantastic jump for Jordin’s CD in the Billboard 200, its up 39 from the previous week.

Wow, what a fantastic jump for Jordinà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s CD in the Billboard 200, its up 39 from the previous week.

Sorry! That was last week’s chart. I’ve got the correct chart posted now.