Idol Sales News – Week Ending 11/11/12

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Taylor should easily have the best selling album of the week, but how will our reality show contestants fare? Will Phil Phillips single “Home” continue to sell well? And how about those Christmas albums?

This is a big week for album releases (just prior to Black Friday) and we should get one day estimates for X-Factor’s One Direction’s second album “Take Me Home”, BGT’s Susan Boyle’s “Greatest Songs from the Stage” and Voice judge Christina’s latest album “Lotus”. I predict 1D takes the top of the chart.

This is the weekly sales thread. Please post numbers as you find them. Thanks!

 
  • jpfan2

    A big increase in spins today on CHR for Home (and I’m sick of the song now) which means top 10 here we come!

    Unfortunately, the success of Home doesn’t look like it’ll help the P2 album much.
    So I expect a pretty meh opening week of 50-60K. For the album to sell, they needed another single but Home blocked that. Plus I don’t see another single for quite awhile. When a song is getting updates of almost 200 spins a day for the first time, it’s nowhere near peaking.

  • springboard2

    Mediabase

    AAA:
    1 1 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 651 598 53 2.736
    +3 Spins
    -5 Bullet
    +0.018 AI
    Alt:
    51 47 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 125 103 22 0.563
    +1 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    +0.018 AI
    Country:
    21 20 CASEY JAMES Crying On A Suitcase 2358 2415 -57 18.609
    -40 Spins
    -43 Bullet
    -0.128 AI
    35 35 LAUREN ALAINA Eighteen Inches 725 807 -82 4.01
    -7 Spins
    -12 Bullet
    -0.052 AI
    64 49 KELLY CLARKSON Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill 364 163 201 2.098
    +23 Spins
    -13 Bullet
    -0.026 AI
    HAC:
    3 2 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 4729 4551 178 34.061
    +23 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    -0.077 AI
    8 8 OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN Good Time 2977 3435 -458 21.828
    -68 Spins
    -50 Bullet
    -0.561 AI
    19 17 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 1707 1423 284 11.978
    +35 Spins
    +4 Bullet
    +0.279 AI
    25 24 HEDLEY Kiss You Inside Out 752 810 -58 2.865
    -9 Spins
    -2 Bullet
    -0.036 AI
    30 30 DAUGHTRY Start Of Something Good 454 454 0 1.879
    -6 Spins
    -2 Bullet
    -0.019 AI
    37 35 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Blown Away 362 343 19 1.654
    +3 Spins
    +5 Bullet
    -0.006 AI
    45 45 ONE DIRECTION Live While We’re Young 175 237 -62 0.754
    -7 Spins
    +1 Bullet
    0 AI
    POP:
    12 14 OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN Good Time 6002 7352 -1350 45.005
    -146 Spins
    -43 Bullet
    -0.787 AI
    17 15 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 5650 4701 949 40.287
    +197 Spins
    +158 Bullet
    +1.196 AI
    16 17 ONE DIRECTION Live While We’re Young 4599 5302 -703 23.425
    -150 Spins
    -89 Bullet
    -0.913 AI
    34 31 CHER LLOYD Oath f/Becky G 1605 1476 129 10.025
    +9 Spins
    +1 Bullet
    -0.089 AI
    38 32 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 1558 1129 429 6.684
    +64 Spins
    +15 Bullet
    +0.479 AI
    41 41 CARLY RAE JEPSEN This Kiss 1081 1033 48 5.671
    +16 Spins
    -1 Bullet
    +0.277 AI

  • springboard2

    ITunes – Top 400 only
    LivePopBars has temporarily removed the top 1500 charts because of problems.

    11/14/2012 – Top 1500 Singles
    2. She’s Not Afraid – One Direction
    3. Nobody Compares – One Direction
    6. Little Things – One Direction
    14. Home – Phillip Phillips
    16. Still the One – One Direction
    18. Loved You First – One Direction
    25. Live While We’re Young – One Direction
    26. Kiss You – One Direction
    31. Little Things – One Direction
    35. Blown Away – Carrie Underwood
    40. Rock Me – One Direction
    44. Heart Attack – One Direction
    48. They Don’t Know About Us – One Direction
    50. Good Time – Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen
    53. Last First Kiss – One Direction
    55. When a Man Loves a Woman (The Voice Performance) – Trevin Hunte
    64. Behind These Hazel Eyes (The Voice Performance) – Cassadee Pope
    65. What Makes You Beautiful – One Direction
    66. Call Me Maybe – Carly Rae Jepsen
    67. Live While We’re Young – One Direction
    71. I Would – One Direction
    74. Back To Black (The Voice Performance) – Bryan Keith
    75. C’mon, C’mon – One Direction
    78. Over Again – One Direction
    79. Cough Syrup (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez
    82. Don’t Rush (feat. Vince Gill) – Kelly Clarkson
    84. More Than a Feeling (The Voice Performance) – Terry McDermott
    93. Catch My Breath – Kelly Clarkson
    96. Summer Love – One Direction
    98. Change My Mind – One Direction
    103. Back For You – One Direction
    118. Rock Me – One Direction
    122. Can’t Take My Eyes Off of You (The Voice Performance) – Dez Duron
    123. The Power of Love (The Voice Performance) – Nicholas David
    124. Want U Back – Cher Lloyd
    130. Kiss You – One Direction
    131. Oath (feat. Becky G) – Cher Lloyd
    134. Heart Attack – One Direction
    144. One Thing – One Direction
    146. They Don’t Know About Us – One Direction
    161. Good Girl – Carrie Underwood
    168. Dream On (The Voice Performance) – Amanda Brown
    172. Crying On a Suitcase – Casey James
    174. My Heart Will Go On (The Voice Performance) – Sylvia Yacoub
    178. Last First Kiss – One Direction
    188. Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You) – Kelly Clarkson
    194. C’mon, C’mon – One Direction
    196. I Would – One Direction
    223. Over Again – One Direction
    225. Live While We’re Young – One Direction
    260. Summer Love – One Direction
    268. Toxic (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez
    274. The One That Got Away (The Voice Performance) – Sylvia Yacoub
    281. The Best (The Voice Performance) – Cody Belew
    290. Spectrum (The Voice Performance) – Amanda Brown
    291. Back for You – One Direction
    293. Change My Mind – One Direction
    295. This Kiss – Carly Rae Jepsen
    334. Dark Side – Kelly Clarkson
    339. How Am I Supposed to Live Without You (The Voice Performance) – Trevin Hunte
    347. You’re the First, the Last, My Everything (The Voice Performance) – Nicholas David
    350. Lights (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez
    365. Moments – One Direction
    367. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
    388. You Are – Colton Dixon
    396. Hit the Road Jack (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez

    11/14/2012 – Top 1500 Albums
    1. Take Me Home: Yearbook Edition – One Direction
    2. Take Me Home – One Direction
    12. PTXmas – EP – Pentatonix
    44. Up All Night (Deluxe Version) – One Direction
    56. The World from the Side of the Moon (Deluxe) – Phillip Phillips
    79. Blown Away – Carrie Underwood
    113. Up All Night – One Direction
    116. Sticks & Stones – Cher Lloyd
    162. iTunes Festival: London 2012 – EP – One Direction
    235. PTX, Vol. 1 – Pentatonix
    241. Christmas With Scotty McCreery – Scotty McCreery
    286. The World from the Side of the Moon – Phillip Phillips
    365. Stronger (Deluxe Version) – Kelly Clarkson
    379. Kiss (Deluxe) – Carly Rae Jepsen

  • maymay

    PP`s album preorders are #1 and #4 at Target. It`s preorders should be #1 and #2 at Walmart because One Direction have released their album.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I’d guess a lot of people will just go to the store to pick it up. That’s what I’d do. (I have someone in the US going to Target for me since I want the complete CD). I think Phillip’s album will be fine. 

  • TheOther

    It wouldn’t have made sense for Interscope to release another single.  Then Phillip would be competing with himself.  I’d much rather have him continue to build momentum over time with the CD, than have a huge opening week, follow with a sharp drop.  

    Interscope is aware of that.  Phillip has yet to perform any of the new songs – and that’s probably by design.

  • Anny_nanny

    “11/14/2012 – Top 1500 Singles
    2. She’s Not Afraid – One Direction
    3. Nobody Compares – One Direction
    6. Little Things – One Direction
    14. Home – Phillip Phillips”

    Hmm. Really?
    Kworb does not give these rooms. “Nobody Compares” and “She’s Not Afraid” is not and were not at the Top 10.
    2 One Direction – The Little Things
    9 Phillip Phillips – Home
    13 One Direction – She’s Not Afraid
    15 One Direction – Nobody Compares
    16 One Direction – Still the One

  • springboard2

    Yes, you are right, there is a major problem with the single chart. I have removed it for now.

  • springboard2

    Here’s the revised version:

    11/14/2012 – iTunes Top 400 Singles
    2. Little Things – One Direction
    9. Home – Phillip Phillips
    13. She’s Not Afraid – One Direction
    15. Nobody Compares – One Direction
    17. Still the One – One Direction
    21. Loved You First – One Direction
    26. Live While We’re Young – One Direction
    31. Kiss You – One Direction
    36. Blown Away – Carrie Underwood
    38. Little Things – One Direction
    43. Rock Me – One Direction
    46. Heart Attack – One Direction
    50. Good Time – Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen
    51. They Don’t Know About Us – One Direction
    55. Last First Kiss – One Direction
    61. When a Man Loves a Woman (The Voice Performance) – Trevin Hunte
    63. What Makes You Beautiful – One Direction
    65. Call Me Maybe – Carly Rae Jepsen
    67. Live While We’re Young – One Direction
    70. Behind These Hazel Eyes (The Voice Performance) – Cassadee Pope
    73. I Would – One Direction
    76. C’mon, C’mon – One Direction
    77. Back To Black (The Voice Performance) – Bryan Keith
    79. Over Again – One Direction
    80. Cough Syrup (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez
    82. Don’t Rush (feat. Vince Gill) – Kelly Clarkson
    89. Catch My Breath – Kelly Clarkson
    94. More Than a Feeling (The Voice Performance) – Terry McDermott
    99. Summer Love – One Direction
    102. Change My Mind – One Direction
    109. Back For You – One Direction
    122. Rock Me – One Direction
    123. Can’t Take My Eyes Off of You (The Voice Performance) – Dez Duron
    125. Want U Back – Cher Lloyd
    129. The Power of Love (The Voice Performance) – Nicholas David
    133. Oath (feat. Becky G) – Cher Lloyd
    136. Kiss You – One Direction
    140. Heart Attack – One Direction
    149. One Thing – One Direction
    156. They Don’t Know About Us – One Direction
    164. Good Girl – Carrie Underwood
    171. Crying On a Suitcase – Casey James
    174. Dream On (The Voice Performance) – Amanda Brown
    182. My Heart Will Go On (The Voice Performance) – Sylvia Yacoub
    185. Last First Kiss – One Direction
    187. Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You) – Kelly Clarkson
    201. I Would – One Direction
    205. C’mon, C’mon – One Direction
    236. Live While We’re Young – One Direction
    243. Over Again – One Direction
    275. Toxic (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez
    279. Summer Love – One Direction
    282. This Kiss – Carly Rae Jepsen
    285. The One That Got Away (The Voice Performance) – Sylvia Yacoub
    300. The Best (The Voice Performance) – Cody Belew
    306. Spectrum (The Voice Performance) – Amanda Brown
    307. Back for You – One Direction
    313. Change My Mind – One Direction
    325. Dark Side – Kelly Clarkson
    353. How Am I Supposed to Live Without You (The Voice Performance) – Trevin Hunte
    354. You’re the First, the Last, My Everything (The Voice Performance) – Nicholas David
    358. Lights (The Voice Performance) – Melanie Martinez
    361. You Are – Colton Dixon
    365. Moments – One Direction
    367. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood

  • Anny_nanny

    I thought I broke something. Thanks!

  • OffLeash

    Home made top 15 on CHR, as expected, and should be up to #13 by next week. It doesn’t look like it’ll break into the top 10 for the release date. It should however top the HAC chart by the 19th.

    The low-for-an-Idol-winner preorders aren’t unexpected, to me anyway. Ratings were significantly down, and P2′s fanbase is small and, as a whole, not the rabid kind. Most will buy the album only if they like it, and I suspect most haven’t even heard the snippets to make up their minds.

    That said, I think it also shows the vast majority of people who made Home 2x platinum are fans of the song, not P2 fans. He’ll have to work hard to turn them into fans. P2 has a long road ahead of him.

  • Anny_nanny

    I have no problem with it from the very moment as Phillip had changed the name of his twitter. lol
    The show was over half a year ago, very probably Phillip sees itself as the “new artist” with the contract. I hope Jimmy sees the same thing.
    But “Home” will be a heavy burden, Yes. And the great gift.

  • girlygirltoo

    IDK, 50-60K seems too low, given how much exposure Phillip has gotten through this song. Interscope and his mgmt (do we even know who he mgmt IS, BTW?) are doing a good job getting him out there doing interviews and whatnot. Yeah, releasing a 2nd single would have been better, but it wouldn’t have got much radio play by now, anyway. And remember, Kris did 80+K his opening week, and that was way before LLWD had any sort of real impact on the radio. I don’t expect PP to come close to Scotty’s opening week #s, but I think 100-125K isn’t unrealistic. Given the genre Phillip’s music is in, that would be a very good opening week. Anything over that would really be gravy.

  • girlygirltoo

    Just smh at all the 1D songs near the top of the iTunes chart. This album is going to have a huge opening week, and could even be #1 again next week.

  • OffLeash

    I’m predicting 100k too. 50-60k would be a bad sign IMO.

  • OffLeash

    Just smh at all the 1D songs near the top of the iTunes chart. This album is going to have a huge opening week, and could even be #1 again next week.

    The whole pattern is similar to what happened with Taylor.

  • Mateja Praznik

    I’m wondering how bad One Direction’s sophomore slump will be. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Unfortunately, the success of Home doesn’t look like it’ll help the P2 album much.

    Why? How do we know this? We haven’t seen official predictions yet, have we?

  • tripp_ncwy

    Music Video Adds week of: 11/13/2012

    MTV
    Phillip Phillips 19/Interscope (Home)

    VH1
    Kelly Clarkson RCA (Catch My Breath)

  • Mateja Praznik

    ONE-DAYS: A SENSE OF DIRECTION
    Syco/Columbia’s Young Guns On Track for Golden Bow; We Also Forecast The Weeknd, Twilight, Xtina, More

    November 14, 2012

    It’s beginning to feel a lot like the holidays, and not just because we’re already plowed on eggnog.

    Syco/Columbia’s One Direction
    is expected to sell a teenage riot of 525-575k on their way to #1 this
    week, and while nothing else in the current crop of debuts will put up
    numbers like that, they’re all likely to end up under the tree, in the
    stocking or appended to a mesh bag of Chanukah gelt.

    The Weeknd from XO/Republic is on track to move 95-105k; the Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 ST from Chop Shop/Atlantic should bite off 85-90k; and the latest from RCA diva and The Voice star Christina Aguilera is set to rack up 75-80k.

    Returning rockers Soundgarden will scare up 70-75k with their Seven Four/Republic comeback disc, while Interscope’s Lana Del Rey is set for 65-70k with her EP. Dos, the second album in Green Day’s trilogy (Warner Bros.), will break off 65-70k.

    What else? Reprise’s Deftones will crank up 60-65k; Syco/Columbia vocalist Susan Boyle is expected to do 35-40k; a set from the late Whitney Houston (RCA) should move similar numbers; The Rolling Stones’ greatest-hits-plus set GRRR! (UMe) will likely roll out 27-30k; Aaron Lewis (Blaster/Warner Bros. Nashville) is looking like 18-21k; and Madison Gate’s Pentatonix will clear 10-15k.

    Speaking
    of things going in stockings, 26 CIA operatives will spend the next two
    weeks reading steamy e-mails from craggy, middle-aged generals. They
    will spend the subsequent two weeks curled up in a fetal position,
    whimpering softly.

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news09195

  • http://twitter.com/MissGolightly22 No Thanks

    Pretty much what I expected.  Such a horrible sophomore slump for the boys.  :op

  • Mateja Praznik

     Yeah, it’s so bad they will be parting ways with their label next week. :D

  • jpfan2

    “The Voice star Christina Aguilera is set to rack up 75-80k.

    If that’s all Christina can muster, I think people shouldn’t expect P2 to break 100K or even get near it. No one knows how much P2′s album will sell the first week.
    We’re just predicting for the fun of it. ;0

    SuBo’s sales also appear to be falling off a cliff.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ACMLXLYSSX73RNYQOUZWSO2I4U Enough already!

    Unless you appeal to a massive teen audience sales are nowhere what they use to be.   One would hope that the exposure Christina has had on the Voice will give her better sales.  The music industry sucks.

  • http://twitter.com/bagel08 John S

    Well their sophomore album came out the same year as their first album, you would think they wouldn’t have a drop. Less than 8 months. Those little girls can’t have enough!

    Lets see where they are in another few years.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    The X Factor boy band is set to rack up 525-575K. Scotty sold 200K in October of last year. Why compare P2 to Xtina when you have these comparisons from actual contestants on singing shows? Another judge from The Voice, Levine, latest album opened with 222K back in June. P2 should open closer to these artists, especially since he has a current hot hit single with a combined A.I. of close to 80 million!

    When is the last time any Idol contestant, straight off of their season,  has had a single like that on the charts at the time of their debut week during Thanksgiving week?

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/6KBNBAY3M4742SQMHUMAV6CVGQ Mike

    Not sure why all of the discussion about how many albums P2 will sell…seems like the same discussion took place back in May…everyone said that he would be lucky to sell as much as Scotty…everyone knows what happened.  Not saying he is going to sell as many albums as Scotty…country is an easier genre to sell within.  But, it is like sports…you never know….anyone can be beat…just ask Alabama.  And, a song or album can catch on…you just never know.  I have no prediction…will just wait to see how it all pans out.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Country isn’t an easier genre to sell albums in. From Oct 1 2011 to Oct 12, 2012 the top twenty best selling albums in the US has two albums that are country. Both of those artists are past Idol winners. There are four alt. rock albums in the top 20. Out of the top 50, there are six country albums. There are 8-10 albums in each of the categories of alt. rock, pop, and rock.

  • girlygirltoo

    Because we do this on this thread with every Idol album right before it’s released — try to predict how well it will do?

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    From Roughstock…

    LW TW Artist Album Sales TW Sales Total
    1 1 Taylor Swift Red 196,000 1,749,0004
    6 Jason Aldean Night Train 48,000 645,00015
    11 Lady Antebellum On This Winter’s Night 27,000 72,00010
    12 Little Big Town Tornado 25,000 348,00028
    14 Blake Shelton Cheers, It’s Christmas. 24,000 68,000

     LW TW Artist Album Sales TW Sales Total
    21 18 Scotty McCreery Christmas With Scotty 20,000 95,000  (they’re not going to count the 5K from QVC, drat)
    6 19 Toby Keith Hope On The Rocks 20,000 68,000
    11 20 Luke Bryan Tailgates & Tanlines 19,000 1,549,000
    13 24 Eric Church Chief 18,000 1,148,000
    12 25 Carrie Underwood Blown Away 17,000 75,000 (I’m pretty sure this is wrong, but it’s their mistake–not mine this time:))

     Read more at http://www.roughstock.com/blog/country-album-chart-news-for-november-14-2012-taylor-swift-red-still-dominates#fzQDfffCVKt99vVz.99

  • girlygirltoo

    Is Phillip’s album really alt rock, though? To me, it’s more Triple A/singer-songwriter with some alt rock thrown in.

  • girlygirltoo

    Susan Boyle’s star has fallen, hasn’t it?

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    While we don’t have the exact numbers, we also know that CAD increased:))

    IdolsNow ?@idolsnow 
    SCOTTY McCREERY’s “Christmas With Scotty McCreery” rebounds 9-6 with a bullet on the Top Country Albums chart.

    @ScottyMcCreery IdolsNow ?@idolsnow 
    SCOTTY McCREERY’s “Clear As Day” rebounds 45-40 with a bullet on the Top Country Albums chart. @ScottyMcCreery

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    By the way, where did you find that info.?  Thanks:))

  • girlygirltoo

    1D is a phenomenon along the Bieber/Taylor Swift lines. Phillip isn’t going to come anywhere close to these numbers. I’d look at the other numbers in that article — aside from 1D, no one is being predicted to sell more than 105K. Christina is only being predicted to move 75-80K. Generally Black Friday #s are better than the week before it, but still, 100-125K or so is probably a realistic # for Phillip. If he does better than that, well that will be fantastic. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    There wasn’t a category for Triple A. The AAA artist were listed under Alt. Rock or Pop Which artists would you consider to be Triple A? Would it be these artists?

    http://fmqb.com/triplea.asp

    and these:

    http://fmqb.com/Article.asp?id=255603

    These lists would include more than 10 of the top 50 albums of the past year from October to October.

  • lukien

    Just curious, MJ states that Phillips album will be available on Nov 19, but it’s already charting on iTunes now. Is that pre-order or he releases the album earlier on iTunes? Surprising low, it hovers around 50s while Home is still Top 10.

  • girlygirltoo

    it’s the preorder

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    These lists would include more than 10 of the top 50 albums of the past year from October to October.Then there is the fact that P2′s current song is getting more airplay than most AAA artists on HAC and Pop.

    Well, but several of the AAA artists on your top-selling albums list — which is here — got a LOT more CHR play than P2 has. That’d include Adele, Gotye, and fun, all of which had singles go to #1 in CHR and go many times more platinum than P2′s Home has.

    I’m not up for analyzing the entire list (I should be writing, cooking parsnips, or going to the gym, in roughly that order), but if others are, there it be.

  • elliegrll

    Why should Phillip open closer to the numbers for established acts?  I could understand it a little better if you wanted to compare Phillip’s debut album with the first week numbers for One Direction’s first album.

  • elliegrll

     From Chart News:
    Home, Phillip @Phillips 97,819 (2,347,642)

  • maymay

    100k is the reasonable sales. I can`t expect more or less. Maybe PP`s album buyers will come from: 1.Idol fans 2.Home fans 3.Dave Matthew fans 4. Mumford & Sons fans 5.Casual fans. It`s a very good and catchy album. It just needs great promotion like Home. If it often can get praise from the public, it will sell well in a long run.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Seems I hear Home every time I go into a store. Does that count anywhere? This time it was a small clothing store here in Canada, called Mark’s Work Wearhouse.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    For the same reason Scotty opened closer to the numbers for established acts.

    One Direction opened with 176K last year. Scotty opened with 197K. Somewhere between those two numbers is a good prediction.

    I’m not sure why we are comparing a recent AI winner from AI to Christina’s seventh album. Her debut album was released 13 years ago.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Several of them like M&S, John Mayer, and The Black Keys got a LOT less CHR play than P2 is getting. Plus, Home is clearly still on its way up with no sign of stopping anytime soon. Home is still just the first single from this album, there are more to come.

  • maymay

    Scotty`s Compilation(42k)+EP(200k) are about 242k. Phillip`s Compilation(more than 50k)+EP(near 90k) are about 140k. Scotty sold his debut album 197k on the first week, so Phillip might sell 100k.

    Considering the lowest ratings, PP could sell 50k without Home. But PP has Home hit, his album should sell more, maybe 100k.

    Christina`s preorder was behind PP`s. If she will sell 75k-80k, PP should sell more than she.

    Anyway, if you can sell a single about multi platinum, that doesn`t mean you can sell album well. People buy PP`s Home, but they will buy his album? Maybe, or maybe not.

  • jpfan2

    Thanks for the info about Christina’s pre sales. Maybe P2 will be closer to 100K than I thought.  I still don’t think P2 walked away from the show with a big fanbase. They didn’t even give themselves a funny name. ;0

  • getaway1

    Philatic

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    Well, that’s good, except that Mumford & Sons are a break-out phenomenon, most likely due to last year’s Grammy, and I’m fairly sure that P2 doesn’t have a Grammy yet.

    John Mayer’s an interesting pick as a AAA artist, since no single from his most recent album has charted in that format. He had a couple AAA hits in 2009 (well into his career), but his home format appears to be HAC. In any case, he’s an established artist on his fifth album, so if Xtina’s “out” as a point of comparison due to length of career, so’s he.

    The Black Keys aren’t a AAA act (they’re alt-rock) but do have strong album sales based on less radio AI than P2 has, so there’s one example that actually could make the point you’re trying to make, though most of the available examples go the other way.

    I’m leaning toward the 100k opening-week estimates. If P2 surpasses that, great.

  • girlygirltoo

    It doesn’t count in terms on charting or sales, but the songwriters get paid for that stuff :)

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    There won’t be an exact comparison, there never are, but going on your earlier qualifiers, those three didn’t have CHR hits. The most recent Idol winner (also under the Jimmy/Interscope years) who had a single that was doing well in his genre at the time of his debut album release was Scotty. He is our best comparison.

    Considering that season 12 had 30% less viewers than season 11, you could drop the 200K down to 140K. Then you have to consider that Home will have an AI of around 80 million compared to the AI of 15 million of ILYTB and that Scotty released in October and P2 gets Thanksgiving week. Then there is the consideration of P2 “being an AAA artist” who also has a song headed to #1 on HAC and a top 15 CHR song that has stayed in the top 10-15 on iTunes for months.

    PP has some good promo coming up for his debut week and for the next month and even gets his single covered on Glee. It’s not like he is hurting in the promo department. Jimmy and Co. seem to know how to get some good opportunities for their winners.

  • girlygirltoo

    Carly Rae Jepsen had the #1 song on the pop charts which has sold more than 5 million copies. It also was the #1 song on the HAC chart. That song was freakin’ everywhere. Her next single, the duet with Owl City, was high on the pop charts at the time her album dropped. Justin Bieber toured with her and pimped her pretty much every chance her got. She was promoted heavily.
    She still sold 46K the first week her album was released. And she is far from the first person to have a huge hit single that has not been able to translate that into big album sales.

    Moral of the story? Singles sales don’t always (or even usually) predict album sales.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Looking at Scotty’s presale placements from a year ago, a few days before he released CAD, his album sat at #96 on the iTines chart. Interestingly, most were predicting that CAD would sell around 100-125K its first week. We all know how that turned out. ;)

    http://www.mjsbigblog.com/weekend-countdown-shows-%e2%80%93-100111.htm#disqus_thread

    This post from a year ago reminds me of the ones this year about Christina’s album and PP’s album:

    If Blake sold 116K coming right offf The Voice, than I think all the above estimates are too high, for Scotty.If he even reaches 80,000, I would be surprised.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    We already discussed the CRJ comparison in earlier number threads. She is not an American Idol winner coming off her season six months ago. Singles don’t always sell albums, but most American Idol winners (with the exception of two) do. They are able to get close to 200K, or above, their debut week. One of those seasons the runner up managed to hit this mark. The only season that didn’t have a big album seller was season 9. This past Idol season and PP’s promo and chart placements has been nothing like season nine and the promotion and start that Lee had during his debut week.

  • elliegrll

    I wouldn’t compare a new artist’s numbers to the numbers of any established act that has been out for years, but I also wouldn’t compare them to a group that is on their second album.  One Direction isn’t currently in the same position as Phillip or anyone else who just stepped off of a reality show.

  • springboard2

    ITunes only tells a small part of the story. We need to look at a wide range of retailers to have an idea. the album is #1 pre-orders at Walmart, but #53 on their best-seller list and #35 on Amazon best sellers.
    I don’t how Clear As Day fared on these charts, but I remember DC’s and Adam’s albums being  in Amazon top 5 for long periods.
    There is little that would indicate that PP’s opening sales will be very high, in my opinion. Whether they should be or not is a different matter.

    The first week sales are only just that anyway, and ongoing sales are just as important. If the album is liked, and since P2 isn’t short of promo, the album will sell a substantial amount overall. So we’ll see.

  • maymay

    Walmart
    1. Preorders: “ZinePack #1 Deluxe #2 Standard #12
    2.Bestsellers: “ZinePack #14 Deluxe #53 Standard behind #120

    Target Coming Soon
    Exclusive #1 Standard #4

    Amazon Bestsellers
    Deluxe #35  Standard #87

    iTunes Overall
    Deluxe #55 Standard #245

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Thanks. Presumably people do hear them, although without names it’s a little tough to then go looking for the singer.

  • standtotheright

    without names it’s a little tough to then go looking for the singer.

    There are apps for that. Heh. Shazam is the best known, I would think.

    ITunes only tells a small part of the story. We need to look at a wide range of retailers to have an idea. the album is #1 pre-orders at Walmart, but #53 on their best-seller list and #35 on Amazon best sellers.

    Yes, pre-order numbers at brick-and-mortar retailers generally aren’t a good signaling mechanism, because most people don’t pre-order through them. iTunes and Amazon are the most likely sites for pre-orders, especially given P2′s genre. (Target is a wrinkle because exclusive versions sold there do seem to get some extra promotion, but I don’t have good stats on how much of that prompts pre-orders; I’d still suspect “not that much” relative to walk-ins.)

    The one advantage of this is that since P2 doesn’t seem to have a large base of fans that will be compelled to pre-order or pick up in the store right away, the Tuesday/Wednesday HDD predictions that come out for new albums should track better with the Friday predictions and the final sales numbers. AI artists’ sales were sometimes overestimated in the past because the algorithm didn’t account for core fan drop-day enthusiasm.

  • OffLeash

    I don’t think you can compare Scotty and P2. Scotty was an extremely popular winner, whose adoring and devoted fanbase would’ve bought anything he’d put out to support him after the show. He was that popular. P2 didn’t have anywhere near the same size fanbase, nor did he benefit from the same devotion, but people fell in love with Home. 

    Scotty was loved for himself, P2 has his own, although small, fanbase, but his success was due mostly to his song. This is bound to make a huge difference when it comes to debut album sales. You obviously disagree, and so might others, but that’s how I see it.

    I’m not saying people won’t eventually love the album and it’ll be commercially successful, but I don’t see mind boggling numbers for next week. I would’ve predicted 60-70k max, but because of Black Friday, it could sell 100k.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    As one of those who would have bought anything Scotty put out (and be certain it would be great!), I kind of agree. But I am already down for Phillips’s special target CD. He kind of grew on me over the season. I might have bought his CD without knowing much about it.

  • http://twitter.com/cheeseE1 EH

    I hope Phillip has a good week, but it may be tough to even make the Top 10.  There are going to be a lot of recent releases for $5 on Black Friday (he’s not among them based on the ads I’ve seen), plus Rihanna, 1D, Taylor, etc.  Anything under 100K could probably get him some “another WGWG flop” press, although maybe Home will protect him from that.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    Hits Daily Double is saying that the label projection for P2′s album is ~150k.

    So, higher than I’d been a’thinkin’, but within the range of everybody who’d been saying 100-150k, and lower than McCreery’s debut. 

  • OffLeash

    The label projection was made public and posted here somewhere (can’t remember the thread) at about the same time we got the snippets, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it’s this high. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Bingo- there it is! ;)

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/6G57FUYKQLV7F4FC3EGS3HA3FA Cherry

    I’m not sure if Philip has a small fanbase, if that’s true then how the heck did he won AI who have around 21 million viewers? Granted multiple voting is allowed but he probably have at least few million fans that can buy his songs even if he’s given a crappy one, don’t you think? OR does multiple voting hurt the winner down the road if there’s no hit song to sing anymore?…just wondering.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Except for season 8 and 9, the Idol winners have done very well on opening week. P2 has a song that is way more popular going into his debut album release than any other Idol has ever had. The song is also current and relevant in today’s market with the young buyers.

    PP was a popular winner and continued to be that way on the tour. His runner ups either aren’t signed, are releasing a single in a much smaller specific genre, or don’t even have a single out. He has zero competition from his season at this point.

    P2 also has the same Jimmy and Co. group behind him that Scotty had. They are getting the right songs and promo behind this album. With a single that is popular in every way possible and a Thanksgiving release date, there is no reason to believe Phil is going to be grouped with the exceptions and not the rule. He should come closer to Scotty’s debut numbers and not Kris’ and Lee’s.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    I’m not sure if Philip has a small fanbase, if that’s true then how the heck did he won AI who have around 21 million viewers?

    Same way Lee DeWyze did, back when the show had a larger viewership.

    We already know from the dismal EP sales of the other high-ranking finalists that none of his rivals in the top 5 had large core fanbases, so P2 presumably didn’t himself need a gigantic fanbase in order to win.

  • girlygirltoo

    You’ll see in today’s sales thread an HDD article that has the label projecting PP at 150K for 1st week. But if you look at the other label projections in that article, they tend to be too high, compared to the actual 1st week #s. M&S, for example, did about half what the label was projecting. On the other hand, 1D should do better than what its label projected. 

  • girlygirltoo

    Lee and Kris both won Idol, and neither of them have very big fanbases. Most of the people who vote on Idol never buy any of the ex-Idols’ music — if they did, all of the winners and runners up would have had debut albums go multi-platinum. 

    For example, I forget what the voting totals were this past year, but in 2010, I think there were 130 million votes for the finale. Let’s suppose Scotty got  70% of the votes — that would be 91 million votes for him. Now, let’s suppose people voted for him an average of 10 times — that would mean 9.1 million different people voted for him. Yet his album has sold “only” 1.1 million copies. That means only about 1 in 9 of the people who voted for him would have actually bothered to buy his album.

    Now these numbers are hypothetical, since I have no idea how many votes Scotty actually got. But my point remains the same — only a small percentage of the people who vote on Idol actually end up buying these artists’ music.

    I think the consensus is that Phillip was a less popular winner than Scotty. Which suggests he has a smaller hardcore fanbase, which in turn suggests he will sell fewer albums than Scotty.

    The wild card in all of this, however, is the huge success of “Home,” and whether that has gained Phillip a bunch of new fans who care nothing about AI but will go out and buy his album. That is still TBD.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    The numbers are what they are predicting these albums will end up at after Thanksgiving week. (except for the ones they are predicting early, like Alicia Keys and Bruno). That is the number that they are predicting M&S will end up with, it wasn’t the prediction for their first week numbers.