Idol Headlines for 10/24/09

Adam article

http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/newswire/2009/10/23/american_idols_adam_lambert_looking_like.htm

Boston David Archuletta fans – he will be at the House of Blues in December

http://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0100435394CE3C1C

Interesting to see the report that Matthew West has submitted a song for Danny. That may be only the second report so far of a specific named songwriter who could be under consideration–along with Chris Sligh & Phil Stacey, presumably, based on their tweets last month that they’d written a “monster hit” for Danny & his team to look at.
It seems likely that some of the songwriters featured by Rascal Flatts and similar country crossover artists could be serious contenders for Danny’s album, but nothing has leaked out with any confirmed details yet.
They are really being very hush-hush about it all.

I don’t understand a reviewer who calls Avril Lavigne better than Allison or suggests that Friday I’ll Be Over You is Allison’s best singing. He must be judging on sales potential or production? Avril is decent, but she doesn’t have a better voice than Allison.
But whatever. The review shouldn’t hurt Adam and might help Allison, so that’s cool.

Time For Miracles Music Video up on 2012 official site

http://www.sonypictures.com/movies/2012/

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/8195/picture2en.png
http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/5064/picture1nk.png

I didn’t like this comment by that reviewer of Allison’s single.

It’s rock-oriented, but has a very heavy pop production to make it uber-catchy.

IMO all three of the songs released so far from this year’s top 4 have had “very heavy” (too heavy) production. I don’t think it’s helped any of them to have all the stuff thrown into their tracks, muddling or fighting with their vocals. I hope Adam’s official single will have a cleaner sound, and the same when the full albums come out in November for Kris, Adam and Alli. (Also Danny’s single, but that kind of heavy-handed production doesn’t seem as rampant in the country genre.)

These folks are top placers in a singing competition. Let them sing.

That review of Allison’s single was bizarre. First of all, I like Avril Lavigne but Allison Iraheta>>>>>>Avril Lavigne. And she didnt scream or growl on idol! I think they have her confused with Danny Gokey. They also left out the fact that Time For Miracles was for 2012.

The McCall.com article was weird – at least he posted the video and people can make their own decision.

Hush hush seems to be standard operating procedure with this group of Idols when it comes to their debut singles/albums. I wonder if Danny is still planning on having a single out next month? That would be way ahead of when his album is scheduled to be released (March).

Oh, by the way, LLWD just passed 3000 spins

I don’t get why the reviewer did both Adam’s and Allison’s singles reviews in the same article.
He doesn’t seem to be a fan of neither of them.

Girlygirly. is that in total or per week/day?

Squirrely–or anyone–Mcall.com article can’t tell if it was positive or negitive which does make it sort of odd.

LLWD-Live W/out Dying .right that is Kris moving up..Does anyone also know how Adam song is doing on itunes?

Sumidol?dol-thanks for responding to my post….

Carrie recently visited the GAC studio and we asked her to give us advice on the three items every woman should have in her wardrobe. She says ‘ some sort of tummy control device, such as Spanx, is really nice to have, because you never know when you might need them. I have many ‘“ I am willing to admit that,’  she laughs.

Are you kidding me? The woman is as skinny as a rail. What is she wearing in every photo we see of her? A full body Spanx in tan flesh tones?

At 11:30 a.m. ET watch Browning Expeditions featuring former American Idol performer Kristy Lee Cook. She joins host and wildlife artist Stephen LeBlanc as they ramble into the Lonestar State for some good old whitetail hunting.

So, more recreational hunting for Kristy Lee. With a wildlife artist. They keep shootin’ the wildlife with bullets, they won’t have anything left to shoot with a camera or put on a canvas.

Danny said a week or two ago that he’d finished four songs (though we have no clue what they are), so it seems they are in good shape to choose something for a November release of his first single.
When Kris and Adam and Alli were recording, it felt to me that we got a lot more scoop about songwriters they were meeting with and things like that. (Adam’s tweet even last week about a song written by Lady Gaga for example.) While none of those tidbits confirmed what songs would actually make their albums, at least it gave us an idea.
There’s been total silence from Danny and anyone official associated with him about songwriters or others he may be working with on the album, except Mark Bright as producer. Interesting that they are so quiet, although obviously they are working hard in the studio.

Squirrely’“or anyone’“Mcall.com article can’t tell if it was positive or negitive which does make it sort of odd.

LLWD-Live W/out Dying .right that is Kris moving up..Does anyone also know how Adam song is doing on itunes?

Adam is 26 dropped 1
Kris is 139 – I think he’s moved up but not sure how many spaces

Oh, by the way, LLWD just passed 3000 spins

great number. Anyone knows the AI of LLWD so far?

But it’s decidedly not the rock Iraheta has been promising. It’s more rock-pop that’s not that far from Avril Lavigne (whom she’s not as good as) or Disney’s Demi Lovato (whom she’s better than).

Are they kidding? Allison kicks Avril’s butt! She sings so much better!

Anyhoo, I’m a fan of Matthew West, Something to Say is a really good song. Hopefully he wrote something good for Danny. I’ve never been a big Danny fan but I am curious to hear what he ends up putting out.

BeckyMD,

LLWD
AI -27.196
SPINS (total) – 3011
POP – 1549
HAC – 1113
RHY – 25
ACT – 1

thedavidcook: # Woke up with the TV on. The show? Gladiators 2000. The host? @RyanSeacrest. Pretty radical.
about 4 hours ago from mobile web

He must be really bored today. LOL

Is David C not releasing anymore singles from his album? Come Back To Me was released so long ago. What the normal time frame between single releases?

Doesn’t David Cook start his gig with Extreme Home Makeover today? I think that’s why he’s in Indiana, in addition to visiting family. The area is getting lots of rain, so it’s going to make it hard to finish that house this week.

ETA – Squirrely – I think most of Cookie’s fans want another single and can’t understand what his label is doing at all

Adam is 26 dropped 1
Kris is 139 ‘“ I think he’s moved up but not sure how many spaces

TFM is #26 Itunes, dropped 1 since yesterday.

LLWD is #141 Itunes. Dropped 18 spots since Friday when it ranked #123. I believe it did peak at 122 yesterday, but I can’t swear on it.

Cowboy Casanova is #24

Just a sidebar here….In my area Details magazine was sold out at Borders. Found a couple left at Barnes and Noble

Squirrely

LLWD-Live W/out Dying .right that is Kris moving up..Does anyone also know how Adam song is doing on itunes?

Adam is 26 dropped 1
Kris is 139 ‘“ I think he’s moved up but not sure how many spaces

TfM was at #23 at midnight last night — down 3 slots since then.
LLWD was up to 114 earlier this week, up to 122 yesterday for a hour yesteday, and averaged 131 for the last 7 days (hourly rank US iTunes straight average). Right now LLWD is at 143.

I don’t even know why anyone is still wondering about another single tbh. I don’t ever recall a new single being pushed once an album drops out of the BB200. It’s just not worth it anymore. Not to mention he’s been talking pretty heavily lately about CD #2. I’m actually shocked he stayed in the BB200 as long as he did considering how foolish RCA was with the single choices.

Doesn’t David Cook start his gig with Extreme Home Makeover today? I think that’s why he’s in Indiana, in addition to visiting family. The area is getting lots of rain, so it’s going to make it hard to finish that house this week.

Yep I believe so. Probably would explain why he was up so early too. The charity auction is at 2pm today and I can see him being part of that.

ETA ‘“ Squirrely ‘“ I think most of Cookie’s fans want another single and can’t understand what his label is doing at all

1) It’s like, with all the former Idols and newly minted Idols putting out product right now, they’re clearing the deck. It’s definitely pretty crowded right now and the economy’s not good. Makes you wonder if there’s a saturation point.

2) And, Cook’s album has already sold platinum so I guess they don’t feel the pressure. He’s clearly an album seller, but that’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy since they didn’t release the best singles off the album. So, in order to get the better, Cook-penned songs, many people bought the album. If it wasn’t so ass backward, I’d actually call it a strategy.

I don’t even know why anyone is still wondering about another single tbh. I don’t ever recall a new single being pushed once an album drops out of the BB200.

I don’t follow Cook the way some of you guys do so two single releases from an entire album seemed odd to me, especially when he’s still touring with this album.

ETA:

It’s like, with all the former Idols and newly minted Idols putting out product right now, they’re clearing the deck.

So new idols will always overshadow old idols?

Adam’s FYE is up to #4 on Amazon this morning

Bestseller list #4
Rock #1
Pop #3

“The Dolphins’ continuing effort to surround football with show business glitz is bringing reigning American Idol Kris Allen to the Land Shark Stadium Tailgate Stage at 3 p.m. (Kickoff is 4:15.) There’s no additional charge for the concert.”

Does anyone know if this concert will be televised? I’m assuming it won’t, but would love to see it and I’m far away from FL tomorrow.

I think most of Cookie’s fans want another single and can’t understand what his label is doing at all

My gut tells me we aren’t getting another single from this record. My biggest frustration is imo that they have now waited too long to release another single before the end of the year anyway. From the looks of things, it appeared that CBTM was primarily being pushed to HAC and not so much to CHR/Pop. The initial push was shoved till April (I believe) and it seemed like CBTM ran out of gas on CHR/Pop very quickly. I started following the song’s progress in the very beginning and I noticed on CHR/Pop it was a very slow go and I began to think that if this one doesn’t take off, we won’t get another single. I don’t know what made me think that at the time but I’m thinking that’s the case now. I hope I’m proved wrong later. Another single should have been released while the album was still charting on the BB top 200 and once the song lost it’s bullet on HAC.

LLWD AI as of this morning for w/e 10/23 is 5.83 mil; 1208 spins of which 423 were HAC and 760 Pop. #37 HAC and #50 Pop this morning.

I don’t know if it’s true, but did see someone saying recently that another single may be coming out from David Cook’s album. (Can’t recall where I saw it though, sorry. It wasn’t an official source, but seemed more than just fan wishful thinking.)

That is awesome about LLWD’s increasing radio play. Good news for Kris.

Wow, am rather surprised that Adam’s single dropped out of iTunes Top 20. When did he drop out of the top 10? Given the “adamstorm” and the promotion he’s gotten – and the iTunes email about his new music being available, I would have thought he’d be higher over the weekend. Interesting…

Just seen on Twitter –
@MooreInnovative: David Cook from #AI Season 7 was at #ClarianNorth / #RileyNorth today paying a visit for patient families. Great guy!

^^ David Cook is a class act. That’s awesome.

Based on an article I read yesterday, sorry about no link, Amazon album sales (pre or otherwise) have very little to do with the actual numbers sold or not sold for an album. They had really good numbers and information to back up their thesis.

So I don’t think (other than it looks nice and creates some online buzz) that Adam holding steady on Amazon is any indication, positively or negatively, on how his album will do. And if we are using Amazon as a barometer Adam fans will be hugely upset come the 23rd of November because SuBo publicists are already predicting she has sold more pre-release albums than anyone (known to man) has ever done on Amazon. So hats off to SuBo…the Amazon Queen.

LLWD AI as of this morning for w/e 10/23 is 5.83 mil

What is AI again?

There’s been total silence from Danny and anyone official associated with him about songwriters or others he may be working with on the album, except Mark Bright as producer. Interesting that they are so quiet, although obviously they are working hard in the studio.

Considering how much negativity there has been concerning Danny, much of which he blogged that he has read, I guess they want to keep quiet and feel they will share when the time is right. I am willing to wait so that I can be pleasantly suprised. Good for him considering a Matthew West song. He and Phil Stacey were in a recent concert with Michael W. Smith and rocked it, from what I understand. Danny has some good guys to turn to there is Nashville.:-)

Just seen on Twitter ‘“
@MooreInnovative: David Cook from #AI Season 7 was at #ClarianNorth / #RileyNorth today paying a visit for patient families. Great guy!

He certainly is.

AI = audience impressions.

I don’t even know why anyone is still wondering about another single tbh. I don’t ever recall a new single being pushed once an album drops out of the BB200. It’s just not worth it anymore. Not to mention he’s been talking pretty heavily lately about CD #2. I‘m actually shocked he stayed in the BB200 as long as he did considering how foolish RCA was with the single choices.

THIS. I’ve sort of made peace with it at this point and in fact I think I did sometime ago anyway. Once the interviews started about DCTR2 and once he started writing songs for DCTR2, I think it was a single that RCA was done with this record.

#ClarianNorth /#RileyNorth

What’s ClarianNorth/RileyNorth? A hospital?

Interesting to see the report that Matthew West has submitted a song for Danny. That may be only the second report so far of a specific named songwriter who could be under consideration’“along with Chris Sligh & Phil Stacey, presumably, based on their tweets last month that they’d written a ‘monster hit’  for Danny & his team to look at.
It seems likely that some of the songwriters featured by Rascal Flatts and similar country crossover artists could be serious contenders for Danny’s album, but nothing has leaked out with any confirmed details yet.
They are really being very hush-hush about it all.

ITA steph6449. It seems like Danny’s label is being really hush-hush about his album. I am glad that some more information about it is coming out. And I think that it’s interesting that Matthew West has submitted a song for Danny. IMO, Matthew’s song “The Motions” is not bad at all, and I could see Danny singing a song like that.

If you count TOML as a single, then there were three singles released from DCTR.

So new idols will always overshadow old idols?

Not for me.

I don’t even know why anyone is still wondering about another single tbh. I don’t ever recall a new single being pushed once an album drops out of the BB200.

What will be happen than with Jordin? Is she still in the BB200?

Oh, poor wittle Simon…he had to take a $3 million paycut, which is probably more than me and hubby will earn in our entire adult lives…..Gee, what will he cut out? a few of his footmen? his annual new Porsche buy?

Times are soooooo tough….

“So new idols will always overshadow old idols?

Not for me. ”

Not for me either!!!

It will be very interesting to watch this year’s crop of idols and their single releases based on what happened last year, as compared to previous years. I may be totally wrong here…and please correct me…but 2 songs from an album as DC and DA did isn’t the norm for Idols who had big successes prior to season 7. I’m not talking about Idols that floundered, but Idols like Kelly, Carrie, and Chris.

Maybe, like posters have said, the David’s albums did pretty darn good without the benefits of a boost from singles and their tours have done really good without tremendous top 40 or HAC play. (Besides, DC actually released 3 singles from his album and TOML went ballistic, didn’t it?)

I’m hoping that we may get a little more action from this year’s crop…but things maynot be as bright as I am anticipating.

A little correction is needed here. David Cook has had four singles from this album Time of My Life is on the album single #1, Light On # 2, Come Back to Me # 3, Barbasol released to rock radio # 4 it went nowhere on rock but it was released. You could also count Permanent which was sung on Idol and was a charity single. The song sold pretty well. So DCTR has had 4 singles and 1 charity single. TOML and LO both went platinum, CBTM has sold between 350,000 and 400,000 and is still selling. Permanent probably sold around 300,000. TOML, LO, CBTM all were in the top ten of HAC and all went recurrent on HAC. TOML, LO went recurrent on AC. That is the HX of David Cook and his singles.

Saga

That’s total spins — and doesn’t seem to include Christian radio, as I don’t see CCR on the chart here

http://www.mmr247.com/mmrweb/Reports/Reg/EMD.asp?SOngID=1687846&NumDays=7

I think RCA did count TOML as a single. Hell it got more promotion than CBTM. I think that song alone got like 3 Mediabase ads.

I wouldn’t say all new Idols overshadow the old ones but they definitely get more focus and attention, which is to be expected since they’ll have a brand new album they need to sell.

What’s ClarianNorth/RileyNorth? A hospital?

Clarion is a standard hospital, Riley North is a childrens hospital

What’s ClarianNorth/RileyNorth? A hospital?

Yes, Sassycatz, it is. Apparently, it has some connection to Indiana University. And, Riley North is a children’s hospital.

Clarion is a standard hospital, Riley North is a childrens hospital

Oh. Thank you Sassycatz and Trina.

123abc456
October 24, 2009 at 12:31 pm

Info I can find…Permanent sold about 150,000 downloads with 61,000 of those being for Charity.

@MooreInnovative: David Cook from #AI Season 7 was at #ClarianNorth / #RileyNorth today paying a visit for patient families. Great guy!

Why am I not surprised this is how he spent his morning. And this follow-up tweet:

katysocialnet @thedavidcook–you’re such a good celebrity– those kids loved seeing you. Now enjoy some lunch in Broad Ripple!!

Gah. I’m so far down the DC rabbit hole I’ll never climb out.

I think RCA did count TOML as a single. Hell it got more promotion than CBTM. I think that song alone got like 3 Mediabase ads.

I think they did too. I was shocked at the promo it received considering it was a coronation song. I think the big shocker came when Z100 added it. Heh

Girlygirl: I found the CCR chart at All Access – they aren’t in the drop down list for the regular charts. If LLWD gets picked up by a few Christian stations it won’t take much to chart there. I was surprised how few spins some of the singles have that are charting in that format. (Like we’re talking under 50 spins in a week will chart). I’m going to keep an eye on it over the next couple of weeks for kicks.

Anyone have more info on this

For my Adam Lambert fans… Be sure and check out @accesshollywood wknd show. Something you havent seen from our intv will air.10:58 AM Oct 23rd from TweetDeck

Based on chart placements that we’ve been seeing for Adam and Kris, it seems obvious that neither one has the AI fan base that the Davids did last year. I see TFM selling less than 50K when the numbers come out. LLWD is doing well on radio right now, so it’s too soon to tell if things will pick up.

Adam had incredible promo including numerous magazine covers and huge industry buzz, but it’s not translating into sales so far. Amazon pre-orders are miniscule in terms of first week sales. I would expect maybe 10-15K maximum from this. His heavier promotion which will start in early November should drive album sales. All the buzz in the world cannot make people buy what they don’t want, and we have yet to hear Adam’s single, so hopefully for Adam radio play will be instant once the single is finally released.

Kris has a tougher road ahead since his AI fanbase is smaller than Adam’s even though he won. It is encouraging that LLWD is gaining in airplay, and with the television appearances that will begin in early November, hopefully Kris can hit it out of the ballpark and this will drive album sales.

I don’t think Kris or Adam will match opening weeks either David had last year unless there are some seriously magical break out performances which will happen during the heavy promo weeks. Adam does have that chance when he performs on the AMAs. It will all be interesting to watch.

What will be happen than with Jordin? Is she still in the BB200?

As of last Billboard 200 charting of 10/17/09, Jordin’s Battlefield was #157. So it’s dropping quickly, but we’ll see what happens.

I see TFM selling less than 50K when the numbers come out.

And this is bad? I’m hoping once the song is on the radio the sales will pick up.

I may be totally wrong here’ ¦and please correct me’ ¦but 2 songs from an album as DC and DA did isn’t the norm for Idols who had big successes prior to season 7. I’m not talking about Idols that floundered, but Idols like Kelly, Carrie, and Chris.

I think what happened with Carrie and Chris’ first albums were lightning in a bottle situations– they both caught on super quick and never stopped selling, so it’s only natural that the label would keep on releasing singles. I actually wiki’d Kelly’s first album, and saw that she got “4″ singles, but the first one was A Moment Like This, which was her coronation single (personally, I feel the same way about it as I do TOML; I’m not sure it counts as a first single). From wiki:

By the time the album was released, over six months had elapsed since “A Moment Like This” had hit #1. Because of this, as well as the song’s status as a “bonus track” on the album, has led to some debate as to whether “A Moment Like This” constitutes the album’s first album single, or if it is “Miss Independent”, which Clarkson debuted on the April 9, 2003 episode of the second season of American Idol, a mere week before her album was released.

Miss Independent did great and hit #1, but, the followups, Low (release 8/03), and The Trouble with Love Is (Released 12/03), did not:

Further single releases “Low” and “The Trouble with Love Is” did not replicate the success of the previous single. “Just Missed the Train” and “You Thought Wrong” had been planned for possible single releases, but after the underperformance of “Low” and “The Trouble with Love Is”, they were canceled.

Not sure if it’s relevant to the discussion, but it helped me put things into perspective a bit. Even though A Moment Like This did great, and Miss Independent hit #1, and Thankful had hit double platinum, RCA hit the skids on more singles after two singles “underperformed”. I’m pretty sure RCA is done with DC’s record, which is sad for us fans, but hey, I’m looking forward to album #2. I’m hoping DC gets his “Breakaway” record, and his “Since U Been Gone” megahit . Optimism is a good thing, no?

And this is bad? I’m hoping once the song is on the radio the sales will pick up.

This is not bad at all, but it is on the lower side for an already made AI fanbase who will buy anything and some will buy several copies. The Davids both sold over 100K with their “first” singles as a comparison which is indicative of the AI fanbase since most of the general population did not know about the songs at the time and radio play was very low.

Adam should absolutely have big first week sales. He has a perfect storm coming up. Just Black Friday week combined with an AMA performance the day before the release date will give him a huge boost (Oprah too especially if he goes back on to sing). Kris I’m more doubtful about because right now he really doesn’t have any televised high profile stuff happening. His promo is pretty standard Idol appearances. Neither David released their CD’s during the biggest shopping week of the year.

When I was researching Vibe Raters blurbs yesterday I thought DC’s first one was interesting. While he did have decent first week sales for LO what RCA bragged about in the blurb was that it shot up to the Top 10 on iTunes within 1 day. So maybe they look at chart position more than numbers.

I see TFM selling less than 50K when the numbers come out.

And this is bad? I’m hoping once the song is on the radio the sales will pick up.

Why would this song hit the radio? Sony isn’t going to push it to the radio, RCA won’t, not their song and they are going to want to save all of their promotion for Adam’s real single with them, imho. And not like the song is strong enough to generate it’s own buzz of how good it is to get on radio, and what format would it be in, anyway? No, I think Sony will be happy with the promotion of the song, as part of the movie with what Adam had this week, whatever trailer it has been in, might be in, and the TII thing.

Well, that’s rather confusing. I thought Time For Miracles *was* Adam’s single. And now it’s going to be on his album as well. So has this been confirmed that he’ll be getting another single? And when will that be released/known?

BTW, since some of you are Jordin Sparks fans, she seeems to be scheduled to perform on SNL the 14th November, anybody knows if it’s true?

Neither David released their CD’s during the biggest shopping week of the year.

Neither will Kris, Adam or Allison if we are talking the biggest shopping week for CDs. That’s the week before Christmas and it has been for years.

Thanksgiving week is actually the third best week for CD sales. The two weeks before Christmas are the best. Lots of last minute stocking stuffers.

And then comes January [cue music from Jaws]

I’m hoping DC gets his ‘Breakaway’  record, and his ‘Since U Been Gone’  megahit . Optimism is a good thing, no?

Indeed.

The Davids both sold over 100K with their ‘first’  singles as a comparison which is indicative of the AI fanbase since most of the general population did not know about the songs at the time and radio play was very low.

As stated in the other thread, comparing the two seasons is like comparing apples with oranges. We are one year into the worst recession most of us will experience. People are not purchasing products in the same way they did a year ago. In my business, we are off nearly 30 percent from last year and we have had to lay off a few people. So I wouldn’t say necessarily that the sales numbers of Season 8 are any indication of the popularity of the idols. I think bulk buying singles/albums is of thing of the past.

Also, you can’t compare TFM with any of the other idol’s first singles because it’s a movie soundtrack which has not been promoted to the general public yet. At least LLWD has airplay and Kris has actually plugged the song.

Mmm. Now that the Miracles song is going to be on AL’s CD, selling it on the radio could help to sell the CD. So, I could see them deciding to push the Miracles song on the radio, even if it did not originate as a song for his CD.

Additional clip of behind the scenes at the TFM music video:

http://www.accesshollywood.com/behind-the-scenes-adam-lamberts-time-for-miracles_video_1169377

BTW, since some of you are Jordin Sparks fans, she seeems to be scheduled to perform on SNL the 14th November, anybody knows if it’s true?

Wow. That would be great for Jordin. Good for her if it’s true.

eta: Yes, album sales are down, but singles sales are not. How do you explain Jordin Sparks’s Battlefield or Kelly’s My Life Would Suck without You? Carrie Underwood sold 110K for her single, Cowboy Casanova.

And if sales are down 30%, well, Kris sold far less than 30% than either of the Davids in terms of first single. Significantly less than 30% of their respective sales.

Tess

Based on an article I read yesterday, sorry about no link, Amazon album sales (pre or otherwise) have very little to do with the actual numbers sold or not sold for an album. They had really good numbers and information to back up their thesis.

So I don’t think (other than it looks nice and creates some online buzz) that Adam holding steady on Amazon is any indication, positively or negatively, on how his album will do. And if we are using Amazon as a barometer Adam fans will be hugely upset come the 23rd of November because SuBo publicists are already predicting she has sold more pre-release albums than anyone (known to man) has ever done on Amazon. So hats off to SuBo’ ¦the Amazon Queen.

Sounds like an interesting article. But I am just hoping that Adam’s album can get into the Top 10!

Regarding the importance of the Amazon preorder ranking — FYE has also been highly ranking on Barnes and Nobels Chart, and on BestBuy.com preorder chart. So it is more than just Amazon — overall a very strong preorder for Adam. Amazon buyers do not look like the rest of the market. NPD (an independent retail industry research firm) found Amazon has a different audience profile than iTunes users. Amazon doesn’t yet have the huge teenage audience of iTunes. Nor does it have a large female audience. But Amazon customers are more likely than those on iTunes to buy albums rather than single tracks. Amazon demographics also do not look like AI demos.

But Amazon’s Market Share is not insignificant:

US Music Market Share Total (first half 2009 – ranked by revenue)
iTunes – 25% of total US music market
WalMart – 14% of total US music market
Best Buy – 12% of total US music market
Amazon – 12% of total US music market

Digital Music Market (35% of US market first half 2009 – rank by revenue)
iTunes – 69% digital music share
AmazonMP3 – 9%.

Physical Music Market Share (US CD/Vinyl albums; CD Singles – (65% of US market first half 2009 – rank by revenue)
Walmart: 20%
Best Buy 16%
Target 10%
Amazon 10%

BTW, since some of you are Jordin Sparks fans, she seeems to be scheduled to perform on SNL the 14th November, anybody knows if it’s true?

I saw a mention of this on an SNL board I read regularly but the poster seemed iffy about who the host was so I wasn’t sure if he was positive about Jordin. Interesting if its true though.

Why would this song hit the radio? Sony isn’t going to push it to the radio, RCA won’t, not their song and they are going to want to save all of their promotion for Adam’s real single with them, imho. And not like the song is strong enough to generate it’s own buzz of how good it is to get on radio, and what format would it be in, anyway? No, I think Sony will be happy with the promotion of the song, as part of the movie with what Adam had this week, whatever trailer it has been in, might be in, and the TII thing.

I don’t get why radio play is questioned. There are plenty of Boston radio stations that play music of this type. Who would push for it – that I don’t know, not familiar with that side of business.

Based on chart placements that we’ve been seeing for Adam and Kris, it seems obvious that neither one has the AI fan base that the Davids did last year. I see TFM selling less than 50K when the numbers come out. LLWD is doing well on radio right now, so it’s too soon to tell if things will pick up.

Adam had incredible promo including numerous magazine covers and huge industry buzz, but it’s not translating into sales so far.

It doesn’t seem obvious to me in the least.

To make a fair comparison to Adam, both of the Davids’ singles would have had to have been leaked online, then have been stealthy placed on iTunes with no announcement and no promotion by the Davids either before or after their releases and then have received approximately 5 spins on all of US radio. If that had happened, then I’d say you could draw some conclusions.

As far as the incredible promo is concerned, yes, it certainly increases Adam’s name recognition outside the AI bubble, but it doesn’t mean people are hearing this song. To do that, one has to seek it out on the internet.

As far as drawing any conclusions about LLWD and Kris, draw away.

Will we see only the itunes sales when sales are reported or is amazon included there?

As stated in the other thread, comparing the two seasons is like comparing apples with oranges. We are one year into the worst recession most of us will experience. People are not purchasing products in the same way they did a year ago.

IDK. Maybe the focus of the news was different in Canada than it was for you Americans, but it seemed like that during November of last year, that the US banking system was in turmoil, the value of US housing stock was plummeting and the US Government was bailing out the financial institutions with unbelievable sums of money. In September of last year, big companies like Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy and in October, the US government allocated $700B for TARP.

I can tell you that here in Canada, people were deeply worried about their financial outlook (even though are banks were not very effected by the crisis). Perhaps the news was much rosier in the US in the fall of 2008. But from my perspective, things look to be improving this November with housing starts up and some other positive indicators.

I think the Davids released in a much scarier climate than the S8 Idols will (but there is still time for another financial crisis to hit the US banking system). My favourite, Kris, is unlikely to move a lot of units that week, but the economy isn’t one of the things I’ll be blaming.

Will we see only the itunes sales when sales are reported or is amazon included there?

It will be reported from all on-line music vendors.

Well, that’s rather confusing. I thought Time For Miracles *was* Adam’s single. And now it’s going to be on his album as well. So has this been confirmed that he’ll be getting another single? And when will that be released/known?

No, TfM was never planned to be Adam’s first real single. It was supposed to be on the 2012 soundtrack and kind of a side thing. The plan was always to release a song that was actually for Adam’s first album as his first single. Now plans have slightly changed with that thing being added to his album (please let it be a bonus track, please let it be a bonus track) and I think that his single might have been pushed back due to TfM leaking earlier than they planned (10/27 as part of TII). But Adam’s single is still going to be released separately, though the date is unknown and again, I think was pushed back for TfM.

I just hope that Adam’s real single comes out sooner than after 10/27. I’m not surprised to see that TfM is not doing better with sales given the material and I think if TII gives it a boost, will only be slight.

So I’d rather just start listening to Adam’s real music before then and starting the promotion for that. Next week would be fine with me. But the week of Nov. 1st at the latest, imho.

Additional clip of behind the scenes at the TFM music video:

http://www.accesshollywood.com/behind-the-scenes-adam-lamberts-time-for-miracles_video_1169377

Thank you.

Here is the link for the article about the Susan Boyer success on Amazon. Now take it with a total grain of salt because it is from Idolator (a blog site..not a news affiliation site).

http://idolator.com/5285312/what-does-susan-boyles-amazon-record-really-mean

I don’t think it matter much how big your AI fanbase or if S8 has a smaller AI fanbase than S7. What matters it the music you put out. They all have an enough base and support from the label to be promoted but to become really succesful they need good material and current material. The 3 most succesful idols have all had material that worked (kelly, daughtry and Carrie). None of them are superstars because they haven’t had superhits. If they’d had that they’d be bigger.

squirriley, yw.

The clip showed how the soundtrack was playing out loud on the street and Adam singing along with it. I had no idea how it was done. I like the playfulness of him with the director while the director was lip singing.

To make a fair comparison to Adam

Okay, let’s look at the factors:

, both of the Davids’ singles would have had to have been leaked online,

Check. Both David’s singles were widely available on-line prior to their releases. David Archuletta had released his single to radio and people quickly pirated it. David Cook actually released his single on-line and, again, it was quickly pirated.

then have been stealthy placed on iTunes with no announcement

TfM, Crush and LO all received prominent iTunes banners announcing that the music was available. I do not recall any of them receiving significant promo elsewhere announcing the release of their singles on iTunes.

and no promotion by the Davids either before or after their releases

David Cook got some sort of internet premier. David Archuletta got some promo from one radio station in one city. Adam premiered his song on the most watched entertainment show in the world. Neither David got a video until weeks later.

and then have received approximately 5 spins on all of US radio.

I think Light On got about 5 spins (if that) prior to being released to iTunes. Radio was slow to warm up to that song.

If that had happened, then I’d say you could draw some conclusions.

Each have their own unique features, but I think we can draw some conclusions.

Why would this song hit the radio? Sony isn’t going to push it to the radio, RCA won’t, not their song and they are going to want to save all of their promotion for Adam’s real single with them, imho. And not like the song is strong enough to generate it’s own buzz of how good it is to get on radio, and what format would it be in, anyway? No, I think Sony will be happy with the promotion of the song, as part of the movie with what Adam had this week, whatever trailer it has been in, might be in, and the TII thing.

Actually the 2012 Soundtrack and TfM is a RCA Record release too. I don’t think we know what their plans for TfM are but it looks like this to me so far:

1. Online marketing and PR:
10/9/09 TfM viral marketing starting 10/9/09 with the teaser and preview
10/18/09 TfM onsale in Italy and BeNeLux – iTunes
10/19/09 11PM TfM onsale US iTunes
10/20/09 TfM onsale on AmazonMP3
10/20/09 PM – MV released on MySpace
TfM went on sale 7 days earlier than planned according to RS.
10/21-23/09 – TfM wide screen MV released — MV expanded to include AOL.com, AO.com, 2012 movie site.

2. Expand marketing of TfM:
10/27/09 TII promo premieres; start of TfM push
11/13/09 2012 main premiere date

My guess is that there will be a radio edit and it will be released to radio after the TII premiere.

Whether Sony/RCA decides to push this as a single — we’ll see. Right now it is primarily being used to promote the movie and build awareness of Adam.

So I’d rather just start listening to Adam’s real music before then and starting the promotion for that. Next week would be fine with me. But the week of Nov. 1st at the latest, imho.

IDK, I’ve been thinking lately that the TfM deal might have had a negotiated date such that Adam was not allowed to release his first single until after the movie opened. This way the movie gets all the Adam buzz during it’s media blitz. Adam benefits by the added name recognition which will hopefully result in lots of spins on his single after it comes out (esp after an AMA performance). I’m really eager to hear his single. But the fact that we still haven’t heard anything is leading me to think there is some agreement with Columbia pictures.

Gah. I’m so far down the DC rabbit hole I’ll never climb out.

I’m right there with you . He seems to be so great with kids – I bet the kids at the hospital enjoyed him.

Each have their own unique features, but I think we can draw some conclusions.

Yeah, but we can also draw the conclusion from S7 and maybe Clay that it takes more than a devoted fanbase to become a megastar. You have to have the goods songwise. AI gives you the opportunity.

I guess the question is, is it possible to make a good record under the conditions these idols are signed and how the label handles them?

Each have their own unique features, but I think we can draw some conclusions.

I agree, Kirsten. You can absolutely compare TFM to the way the Davids’ singles were released. It was very similar. I’m not drawing any conclusions on how things will happen in the future, but you can make the comparison to the core AI fanbase that is aware of everything.

People are not purchasing products in the same way they did a year ago. In my business, we are off nearly 30 percent from last year and we have had to lay off a few people.

My guess is that it depends on the product and the cost of the product. Album sales are probably still on the decline but I don’t know if the same applies to single sales, which were still on the rise early this year. Since they changed the price to $1.29, I wonder if sales have dropped.

Well, I’m pretty happy with TFM and its itunes placement. AFter a week of sales, it is still higher than the ‘guy that won” peak placement (for only an hour). That being said, Kris’s fans are still hopeful that radio play will turn his around and gain more sales. They repeat it every day. It hasn’t yet. But, with Adam, he is supposedly failing because he is doing better than the guy that won but not as good a non-fans expected. The rules keep changing. I think he is doing great-besides, it was a side job that appears to be an afterthought- but a pretty successful one for no planning. Icing on the cake to me.

I think the Davids released in a much scarier climate than the S8 Idols

Maybe things are improving in Canada but down here in Arizona the economic climate sucks big time. Major stores are closing by the droves, even grocery stores. I don’t think there is any excess money in my neck of the woods, I know many many people are as anxious about Christmas as I have seen since the debaucle of the early 80s. So to those of you on the road to recovery, whoo hoo. For the rest of us…hope springs eternal.

undercooked
October 24, 2009 at 1:11 pm

The Davids both sold over 100K with their ‘first’  singles as a comparison which is indicative of the AI fanbase since most of the general population did not know about the songs at the time and radio play was very low.

As stated in the other thread, comparing the two seasons is like comparing apples with oranges. We are one year into the worst recession most of us will experience. People are not purchasing products in the same way they did a year ago. In my business, we are off nearly 30 percent from last year and we have had to lay off a few people. So I wouldn’t say necessarily that the sales numbers of Season 8 are any indication of the popularity of the idols. I think bulk buying singles/albums is of thing of the past.

I think it depends upon the business you are in. I could see how your argument MIGHT be extrapolated to album sales, but I think single sales are not down nearly that much. A very cheap form of entertainment in a bad economic climate. And I agree with the person who said that there was actually more economic fear and trepidation last Fall.

ETA: May, great minds, etc.

I think the Davids released in a much scarier climate than the S8 Idols will

Although the banking system started to collapse since last November, the pain in main street and retail market started months later and the real unemployment rate is worsen into this year. I don’t see how last Nov climate was scarier than this year (if in term of psychological panic maybe yes, but in term of real economy situation, no). Consumer’s expectation of economy recovery is lower the first half of this year that it was late last year. The expectation affects consumer’s purchase decision more than their real financial situation does.

Aren’t digital singles at an all time high now? I was under the assumption it was mostly albums that were impacted by the economy. And I always thought just having a song in the Top 10 on iTunes alone was good publicity. Considering how many people use iTunes every day I would think it is. Sometimes I go on there, I’ll see a familiar name in the Top 10 and if I happened to like that person but didn’t know they had new music out I would sample it and sometimes download the song.

Valentin432: I don’t get why the reviewer did both Adam’s and Allison’s singles reviews in the same article.

Because Adam is The Greatest Being Ever Created In The History Of This Or Any Universe and must be mentioned in every article about other musicians until the end of — I mean, until 2012.

I’m just glad that Allison got a bit of well-deserved top billing. Should have been sole billing, it’s true, but this is better than nothing.

As for the review itself, that guy is an idiot. He probably thinks that any singing with heart and soul is “screaming”. But, for all his stupidity regarding Allison’s talent, I like seeing positive reviews from people who either don’t know or don’t like an artist — they’re more encouraging than the predictable praise from reviewers who are already well-established fans.

I see so many avid Canadian posters here at MJs. Is American Idol that big in Canada and are canadians allowed to vote? Or are you guys lucky enough to Satellite some US tv?

I would love to see some Canadian TV since I really enjoy the north of the border persona and my take on a bit more casual approach to life. I have to invest in extended cable, here at home, just to get BBC which I flove. Are Canadians like Brits?

As stated in the other thread, comparing the two seasons is like comparing apples with oranges. We are one year into the worst recession most of us will experience. People are not purchasing products in the same way they did a year ago. In my business, we are off nearly 30 percent from last year and we have had to lay off a few people. So I wouldn’t say necessarily that the sales numbers of Season 8 are any indication of the popularity of the idols. I think bulk buying singles/albums is of thing of the past.

Also, you can’t compare TFM with any of the other idol’s first singles because it’s a movie soundtrack which has not been promoted to the general public yet. At least LLWD has airplay and Kris has actually plugged the song.

Excellent post, undercooked. I don’t understand how people can say the economy was worse last year at this time. I know someone who bought property in November thinking housing prices would not go down any further. Well surprise, this year it did. Their’s recently went down 15%, and that was after upgrading it. Look at the unemployment rate this year compared to the end of last year. CD’s (not the music ones) are earning less than 1%. I could go on, but it is in the news.

So, with the economy and with what you posted above, yes, one cannot compare a soundtrack with a single coming off a debut album.

I am not a big fan of comparisons between various Idol alums. Adam and Kris are very different than the “two Davids”.

But US music sales are now down 11% (revenue) in 2009 vs. 2008 — and the outlook for Q4 2009 is dismal. Sales all over the world are down similar amounts. So it is unlikely that Adam or Kris will match the David’s numbers.

But I believe there is a good change that Adam may sell more albums that Archie did — even in this economy.

And I think that Carrie will continue to outsell all the Idol alums in the end.

I think the Davids released in a much scarier climate than the S8 Idols will (but there is still time for another financial crisis to hit the US banking system). My favourite, Kris, is unlikely to move a lot of units that week, but the economy isn’t one of the things I’ll be blaming.

Last Fall consumer sentiment in the US was much higher than now. The banking system was in turmoil but the recession wasn’t official until after the November 2008 election. The other factor was that may people were excited about the prospect a change in the US Admin. with the upcoming election. Just look at the unemployment rate increase — that is real to people and very scary:

Crush released 8/12/08 US Unemployment 6.2%
LO released 9/30/08 US Unemployment 6.2%
US Unemployment now is 9.8%

ETA: Where I live in Noth Mississippi offical unemployment is around 12% but real unemployment is actually over 25% — people have stopped looking for jobs.

David Cook has had four singles from this album Time of My Life is on the album single #1, Light On # 2, Come Back to Me # 3, Barbasol released to rock radio # 4 it went nowhere on rock but it was released.

Some days when I feel like engaging in wild conjecture, I would wonder if DC gambled away some political capital and sacrificed a shot at a third (fourth if you count TOML) mainstream single by insisting on Bar-ba-sol’s release. Right before CBTM and BBS were announced, Neal posted a cryptic “tit-for-tat” status on Facebook, and DC’s first comments about CBTM’s release were always in conjunction with BBS. Seemed like he tried really hard to promote BBS jointly with CBTM, but stopped mentioning it when it went nowhere. But honestly, if RCA is counting BBS as a single, that kinda pisses me off. Did that song get ANY ads? There was no video, no ads, no rock radio interviews, and he never got to perform it at any TV gigs… I can’t imagine RCA spent much money on it at all.

In other news, trying to do a little more research on the no-new-singles if the album is off the Billboard 200 theory. Went to wikipedia to look up Kellie Pickler’s first album, and found that she got 3 singles:

The album produced three Top 20 singles: The RIAA certified “Red High Heels”[1], “I Wonder”, and “Things That Never Cross a Man’s Mind” Gold.

She got three singles that made it to Top 20 country charts, but not Top 10. Her album sold over 817,000 copies. Wiki says:

On November 14, 2007, the album returned to Billboard 200 at number 144.

That means she had dropped off Billboard 200 prior to November of that year before returning. I’m really curious if she got her third single released before it fell off. The second single was released on 3/07, and the third 9/07. Hmmm….

Anyway, not sure if this means anything at all, since I’m pretty sure DC’s not getting another single. Just thought I’d share LOL.

Jordin on SNL… wow, that’s amazing if true!

I think fans expected TFM to go to #1 because Adam has a crazy devoted fanbase and in addition he has been promoted more than any Idol has ever been promoted. Magazines and celebrity gossip shows have been all over him for months. Based on those factors I also expected anything from Adam to hit huge. But I guess a crap song, even sung by a heavily promoted “superstar in the making”, is still a crap song and even the devoted fans won’t buy it, let alone casual fans.

Amazon doesn’t yet have the huge teenage audience of iTunes. Nor does it have a large female audience.

The smaller female audience surprises me, (unless you were just referring to females over 6 feet tall. ) Every female I know, of varying ages, on up to in their 80s, loves to shop at Amazon. But, I don’t know a lot of tall women.

And, from someone else’s post:

And if we are using Amazon as a barometer Adam fans will be hugely upset come the 23rd of November because SuBo publicists are already predicting she has sold more pre-release albums than anyone (known to man) has ever done on Amazon.

I don’t think most of Adam’s fans will be upset. Puzzled, yes, but not upset. We know about SuBo’s presales. If Adam’s album sells in the top 10, that would be thrilling. Top 20, still great. But #1? Not likely.

I think that the more important difference will be that in 5 years, we’ll still be hearing from Adam, but SuBo will be home with her cats, and mostly forgotten. I hope for longevity in the field for Adam, and think that he’ll be able to achieve that.

I think it depends upon the business you are in. I could see how your argument MIGHT be extrapolated to album sales, but I think single sales are not down nearly that much. A very cheap form of entertainment in a bad economic climate. And I agree with the person who said that there was actually more economic fear and trepidation last Fall.

I don’t want to go too deep into this, but a year ago, many people had reserves, now those reserves are gone, drained by the continual economic downturn. Savings are depleted, credit cards are maxed out, etc. I do think we have hit bottom and now are on the way up, but for those actually living in it, things were better a year ago than today. Also, at least in Canada you have socialized medicine, some companies are putting people are part time now so they don’t have to pay benefits. YMMV.

Tess: see so many avid Canadian posters here at MJs. Is American Idol that big in Canada and are canadians allowed to vote? Or are you guys lucky enough to Satellite some US tv?

Although I’m American and now live in the Deep South — about 3-4 hours south of Montreal — I grew up on the US-Canadian border and have spent a lot of time in Canada, so I can tell you that Canadian cable systems carry US TV. You don’t need to pick it up on satellite.

Are Canadians like Brits?

I’m sure Kirsten etc. will give you their take on that (and might already have by the time I post this), but as an American growing up closer to Canadian cities than to any US city and spending a lot of time in Canada, my feeling is that Canadians are sort of between Brits and Americans — the best of both, IMO. As for being like Brits, I always remember being introduced to Monty Python by the CBC station in Ottawa in the early 70s, a few years before most Americans ever heard of it.

10/21-23/09 ‘“ TfM wide screen MV released ‘” MV expanded to include AOL.com, AO.com, 2012 movie site.

Where is the TfM video being shown on Adam’s official site? It’s up on his official myspace, but I can’t find it on adamofficial.com.

Actually the 2012 Soundtrack and TfM is a RCA Record release too.

But 2012 as a product is a Sony/Columbia pictures kind of deal, and the movie is going to be the main thrust of where they advertise, and this song is part of promoting the movie, a Sony, not RCA product. This soundtrack isn’t something like Twilight where the actual soundtrack is something that is a separate, viable revenue stream. Mostly the music off this thing sounds like generic, instrumental stuff.

The promotion of Adam helps with promoting the song…to sell the movie. Also improving Adam’s visibility for his later Sony/RCA product of his album, is a nice to have, but not need to have for the purposes of this video and song. Again, the main thrust of this all is promoting the film. Which is why this song wasn’t written for Adam and he was kind of plugged into it. His having some visibilty from AI, again, adds to promotion of the song, and therefore movie, which is their main goal. So the TII with more of the movie put in, and pushing the MV as part of that, will be about what I expect in terms of promoting this song for Sony.

Because the single is just a nice possible other revenue stream, but it’s real purpose was always to promote the film, I don’t expect tons of radio promotion about this from Sony. And no, I don’t expect that there will be a shortened radio edit that is pushed to the radio by Sony for this song. Maybe, but I think not. And I don’t think that Sony will be making the big media, radio push for this song, when they know they have Adam’s real single coming up sooner than later, which they will want to push to radio and do the media for that, and fairly soon.

And no, I don’t really see this playing well on radio. What format do you think it is? Certainly not pop, not rock, not classic rock (not old enough yet), not urban or rhythm. Maybe AC or HAC. But I don’t see how Sony pushing it to stations, and again, I don’t see this having any real impact outside of Adam’s fanbase, so therefore there won’t be some popular, and not street teaming kind of thing, to get this song on the radio by people.

Just my take. Amateur of course and clearly MMV with others here.

This article is from the UK, but I wonder if some of the information holds true for the US?

Sales of Music Singles Hit Record Levels Thanks to Internet Downloads:

Popular releases by Lady Gaga, Dizzee Rascal and Lily Allen have contributed to the “astonishing” transformation of the market, according to the The British Phonographic Industry (BPI), which revealed that 117 million singles have already been sold this year. The Official Charts Company data showed that track sales have surpassed the previous all-time record of 115.1 million, set in 2008.

This year, which marks the 60th anniversary of the single, has been described as the ‘era of the digital single’ , by Martin Talbot, managing director of the Official Charts Company. “What is so encouraging about this growth is that it looks likely to continue right through to the end of the year ‘“ in the past 10 days alone…

I don’t think you can compare the internet fanbases to those who do not frequent these blogs and search everything out there for their idols. I don’t know anyone personally who does this day after day. Some of my friends just heard TfM the other day when they saw it on ET. One said, “Did you know Adam recorded a song for a movie?” With a few others, I sat them down to listen to TfM, otherwise, they never would have heard it. None of them have heard that Adam is on the cover of Details either.

Granted, Adam’s fanbase seems to have a larger presence on the internet than the other idols this season, but I am finding out they are really a minority when it comes to the entire fanbase. I think Kris fans can attest to this with their non-internet fanbase too.

Where is the TfM video being shown on Adam’s official site? It’s up on his official myspace, but I can’t find it on adamofficial.com.

It’s on AdamOffical YouTube channel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7WRi1o2v0

Don’t know if that’s what she means.

Aren’t digital singles at an all time high now? I was under the assumption it was mostly albums that were impacted by the economy. And I always thought just having a song in the Top 10 on iTunes alone was good publicity

Another way to think of it… maybe it’s just harder for TFM to hit #3 or whatever on iTunes because everyone on iTunes Top 10 is selling more, and singles are selling better than ever, and singles competition is greater than ever? I just don’t think the bad economy argument is all that relevant when it comes to singles. Albums, yes. But singles, YMMV, but I don’t buy it. Singles are selling like hotcakes these days.

That said, in general, I agree with Kirsten’s whole post. You can draw some conclusions. I think the Davids had bigger and/or more dedicated American Idol fanbases than Adam/Kris, BUT I agree that Adam has the potential to do better than the Davids because it’s more important to hit it big in the mainstream than to rely on the AI base. If Adam’s music jives with the public, I think he can do better than the Davids for sure, if not in album numbers, at least with mainstream singles and recognition. What I’ve seen of the Adam buzz this year is that a lot of “cool” Hollywood/industry people who may otherwise scoff at AI really like him. The fact that he “lost” gives him more of a subversive cred. In that sense, he may have more of a chance at fair reviews than either Davids, who still suffer from the AI bias. But that’s just my conjecture. I guess time will tell how this all plays out in the long run. I’m still waiting for the next David Cook album

Sales of Music Singles Hit Record Levels Thanks to Internet Downloads:

I think a concurrent fact is the decrease in sales of albums. People now tend to buy several hit singles rather than a whole albums with album fillers.

New music format and payment option are both contributing factors.

undercooked
October 24, 2009 at 2:01 pm
I think it depends upon the business you are in. I could see how your argument MIGHT be extrapolated to album sales, but I think single sales are not down nearly that much. A very cheap form of entertainment in a bad economic climate. And I agree with the person who said that there was actually more economic fear and trepidation last Fall.

I don’t want to go too deep into this, but a year ago, many people had reserves, now those reserves are gone, drained by the continual economic downturn. Savings are depleted, credit cards are maxed out, etc. I do think we have hit bottom and now are on the way up, but for those actually living in it, things were better a year ago than today. Also, at least in Canada you have socialized medicine, some companies are putting people are part time now so they don’t have to pay benefits. YMMV.

I certainly won’t dispute what you are saying about the overall economy, but my point was that, overall, SINGLE sales are not down this Fall from last Fall. Therefore, the explanation that the poor economy could potentially be responsible for S8 contestants’ singles selling less than S7′s, did not really make sense. Album sales would be an entirely different matter, but we were talking about single sales.

I think a concurrent and contributing factor is the decrease in sales of albums. People now tend to buy several hit singles rather than a whole albums with album fillers.

ITA- Album sales down, single sales up. The point I was trying to make, but perhaps didn’t do a very good job at, is that perhaps people are not bulk buying. I don’t hear about crazy fans purchasing 8 singles a day to keep their favorite’s numbers up. There isn’t the disposable income for that.

So digital singles are up, albums are down…does anyone know what that means in real dollars? I am assuming less dollars are being spent on music because singles are cheaper than albums? I have no data to support that argument, it’s just what I am guessing.

yinyang

Amazon doesn’t yet have the huge teenage audience of iTunes. Nor does it have a large female audience.

The smaller female audience surprises me, (unless you were just referring to females over 6 feet tall. ) Every female I know, of varying ages, on up to in their 80s, loves to shop at Amazon. But, I don’t know a lot of tall women.

Surprised me too at first but NPD is very reliable — about as good as retail research gets. In the US men buy more music than women, and iTunes is actually unique in its strong skew towards women. I actually think that Idol and now Glee are a big part of that, along with the huge percentage of tween and teen girls who shop on iTunes.

Tess, as JohnM already stated, US TV is essentially Canadian TV, although we do have a few CanCon stations that nobody really watches. And yes, American Idol is HUGE in Canada – I even heard once that it has a higher market share here than in the US. And no, we can’t vote, Damnit.

Magazines and celebrity gossip shows have been all over him for months. Based on those factors I also expected anything from Adam to hit huge,

It must be paying off b/c Rolling Stone sold out and Details is flying off the shelf. Every show that he is on shows increased viewership. So yes, this kind of promotion has paid off. When they start promoting his single, it will pay off too.

My favourite, Kris, is unlikely to move a lot of units that week, but the economy isn’t one of the things I’ll be blaming.

He’s my fave this year too. What will you blame? Bad songs? Him not promoting himself well? Just wondering…

ETA; This question is in response to Kirsten’s quote. Forgot to add that. Thanks.

Don’t know if this has been posted anywhere, but David Cook’s CD is in the Top 10 preorders of all time at Amazon.

1. Susan Boyle, “I Dreamed a Dream” (2009)
2. Norah Jones, “Not Too Late” (2007)
3. U2, “No Line on the Horizon” (2009)
4. Bruce Springsteen, “Magic” (2007)
5. Dixie Chicks, “Taking the Long Way” (2006)
6. Coldplay, “Viva La Vida” (2008)
7. U2, “How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb” (2004)
8. David Cook, “David Cook” (2008)
9. Diana Krall, “Quiet Nights” (2009)
10. Clay Aiken, “A Thousand Different Ways” (2006)

I don’t hear about crazy fans purchasing 8 singles a day to keep their favorite’s numbers up.

I actually find this interesting. We’ve heard for a long time that Adam’s fans are all OTT but they don’t seem to be bulk buying or gifting several copies left and right. So is this a good or bad thing?

In a recent Reuters’ article:

Sales were off 11.1% compared with the same period in 2008, according to Nielsen SoundScan. After the second quarter, sales were down 14.7% compared with the first half of 2008.

So far album sales are down 13.9% this year. Total album sales fell 14 percent in 2008.

and this is the state of UK singles sales from Reuters:

Singles sales in Britain have hit a record high in 2009, already exceeding the previous peak in 2008 of 115.1 million.

“This truly is the era of the digital single,” said Martin Talbot, managing director of the Official Charts Company which compiles the weekly music charts for singles and albums.

eta:Wasn’t Time for Miracles released for iTunes purchase in Europe? What are the iTunes rankings in those countries?

Tess, as JohnM already stated, US TV is essentially Canadian TV, although we do have a few CanCon stations that nobody really watches. And yes, American Idol is HUGE in Canada ‘“ I even heard once that it has a higher market share here than in the US.

Yep – AI is huge up here even with the cultural differences. There is a very strong American influence up here but there are definitely some things that remain ultimately Canadian and I wouldn’t want it any other way!

Tess, as JohnM already stated, US TV is essentially Canadian TV, although we do have a few CanCon stations that nobody really watches. And yes, American Idol is HUGE in Canada ‘“ I even heard once that it has a higher market share here than in the US.

Plus, let’s not forget that. Long before all these British actors showed up on American TV pretending to be Americans, Canadian entertainers — of all sorts — as well as news people (like Peter Jennings) have been on American television and movies, and very few knew the difference since many Canadians, barring a few syllables here and there, sound very much like Americans.

It’s on AdamOffical YouTube channel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7WRi1o2v0

Don’t know if that’s what she means.

Thanks. Why is there no information about TfM or the MV on Adam’s official website?

I wish we had data on what percentage of sales by various idols were fueled by fans purchasing multiple copies. I know there is no way to get that data, but it would be interesting.

You can draw some conclusions. I think the Davids had bigger and/or more dedicated American Idol fanbases than Adam/Kris, BUT I agree that Adam has the potential to do better than the Davids because it’s more important to hit it big in the mainstream than to rely on the AI base.

I agree that Adam doesn’t fit the Idol audience that well (lifestyle or music genre) and probably has a smaller Idol fanbase than David Cook. But I also do not believe that it makes any sense to make judgments about the size of Adam’s fanbase based on 5 days of iTunes and Amazon chart numbers for TfM.

1. I’ll wait until I see unit sales to even start to form a real opinion. And I will wait to see what the song does after 2012 opens. Movie songs often are released before the movie opens but peak 1 week after the theatrical opening.

2. TfM is not representative of the music on Adam’s album. I happen to love TfM but mostly for Adam’s voice — the song or production style are not my fav.

My conclusion — I think it is way too soon to write the book on Adam’s future prospects — or Kris’ for that matter. And why not at least wait until there are some real numbers.

I know I was shocked when I found out Michael J Fox is Canadian – I still love him though ;p

In the US men buy more music than women, and iTunes is actually unique in its strong skew towards women.

In my family, I buy music from iTunes, hubby doesn’t buy music (listens to radio) and my 17-year-old downloads music on Torrent I did buy him a bunch of obscure (to me) CDs at Christmas last year from Amazon because he wanted the hard copies and Best Buy didn’t carry them. But he has very non-mainstream tastes (last few concerts were Sonic Youth, Flaming Lips and Dinosaur Jr. Next up is Jesus Lizard (?) Who thinks up these band names lol.)

I actually find this interesting. We’ve heard for a long time that Adam’s fans are all OTT but they don’t seem to be bulk buying or gifting several copies left and right. So is this a good or bad thing?

I personally think it is a good thing. It gives us a better indication of how Adam is faring in the real world. And based on that, I think he is doing quite well. Kris should have done better in sales as the winner, but he hasn’t. I don’t think his fans are bulk buying either.

I actually find this interesting. We’ve heard for a long time that Adam’s fans are all OTT but they don’t seem to be bulk buying or gifting several copies left and right. So is this a good or bad thing?

How can they bulk buy an album that is not out yet? Amazon will only let you order one copy during pre-sale.

Plus, let’s not forget that. Long before all these British actors showed up on American TV pretending to be Americans, Canadian entertainers ‘” of all sorts ‘” as well as news people (like Peter Jennings) have been on American television and movies, and very few knew the difference since many Canadians, barring a few syllables here and there, sound very much like Americans.

Perhaps many do but I’ve had many tell me I have an accent ‘eh’.

2. TfM is not representative of the music on Adam’s album. I happen to love TfM but mostly for Adam’s voice ‘” the song or production style are not my fav.

And, ToML was not representative of what was on David’s. We all have a cross to bear.

However, I wonder, once Adam releases his album and starts putting on his own shows, whether he will still sing TfM or abandon it, like David did with ToML.

Adam Lambert had many (a dozen??) music videos in the top itunes 100 during AI and for a while after the show. I’m fairly certain there were more videos than song singles. I never understood how these were counted. Did they count toward singles numbers?

How can they bulk buy an album that is not out yet? Amazon will only let you order one copy during pre-sale.

I think we were discussing the singles and as far as I know, you can purchase as many singles as you want from ITUNES? I don’t know for sure because I’ve never done that before. Anyone? Also, I think Amazon will let you order up to four copies? And if you were so determined to keep purchasing, couldn’t you just order from Best Buy, Walmart, etc?

In the long run, I don’t think the multiple-copy buying reflects anything because with the Davids, I think people bought copies for their family or for holiday gifts, but I think that would only matter for people who had very low sales – it might get them on the radar initially. But, for the Davids, with Cook’s platinum cd and Archuleta’s 800,000 cd and Crush just about to hit double-platinum, multiple cd/single buying was more of a thank-you to the artists they love.

I actually find this interesting. We’ve heard for a long time that Adam’s fans are all OTT but they don’t seem to be bulk buying or gifting several copies left and right. So is this a good or bad thing?

How can they bulk buy an album that is not out yet? Amazon will only let you order one copy during pre-sale.

Yes, I know (but I think that you can buy 3?). But I haven’t heard about any major gifting campaigns either.

What I was trying to say (without actually saying it…) that maybe the majority of Adam fans aren’t that OTT after all. (And neither are Kris fans.) And I think it is a good thing.

In the long run, I don’t think the multiple-copy buying reflects anything because with the Davids, I think people bought copies for their family or for holiday gifts, but I think that would only matter for people who had very low sales ‘“ it might get them on the radar initially. But, for the Davids, with Cook’s platinum cd and Archuleta’s 800,000 cd and Crush just about to hit double-platinum, multiple cd/single buying was more of a thank-you to the artists they love.

ITA- I was just talking the intitial sales, which are usually fueled by AI fans because the music usually hasn’t been out there long enough for the non AI fans to notice. Jordin is an excellent example of that. If we based her career on the first week of sales…not so bright. But doesn’t she have a few platinum singles now?

In the long run, I don’t think the multiple-copy buying reflects anything because with the Davids, I think people bought copies for their family or for holiday gifts, but I think that would only matter for people who had very low sales ‘“ it might get them on the radar initially. But, for the Davids, with Cook’s platinum cd and Archuleta’s 800,000 cd and Crush just about to hit double-platinum, multiple cd/single buying was more of a thank-you to the artists they love.

All of the this happened over time didn’t it, they didn’t go platinum in a week or did they?

“But I believe there is a good change that Adam may sell more albums that Archie did ‘” even in this economy.”

They better hope so. They’ve spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting him, almost to the point of being annoying. Premiering a single on the AMA’s on top of everything else they’ve given to him – if it doesn’t work for him there are really no excuses. To me it seems they are trying mostly to sell his image. We’ll see how well people take to that.

He’ll probably have to sell double of what Archie did to just repay what’s already been spent. No idea what he’ll have to sell to actually make money, but I’d be willing to bet it’s going to be a hefty number.

OOoh John M. Monty Python and the Holy Grail…yellow, red, no blue. clip clop, who goes there. I wish I could remember all of the lines and accurately. The absolute best! Thanks for reminding me…when I can get a few bucks together I’ll try to find it on DVD. It will make my day.

Adam has a huge fanbase, I know. But, however huge, it wasn’t enough for him to win AI. If all these fans weren’t enough to push him to a win on the show, then I don’t understand how anyone thought they would be enough to push whatever he releases to a number one spot on iTunes. I think Adam is off to a remarkable start, even with TFM which isn’t even his first real single, but he won’t be able to do it without airplay, promotion, etc. Thankfully, he has a lot of people behind him so all of that is coming. What is more puzzling to me is what is going on with Kris and his single (and I like Kris, and bought the single to support him).

Oh, and I have to say, it was a BRILLIANT move last season to get Cook’s presale up so quickly. David had a great winning moment, and 19 completely capitalized on his huge momentum coming off that finale. That was probably the smartest thing they did with Cook last year (still mad about poor way in which his singles were released, or, not released).

Universal:

I actually find this interesting. We’ve heard for a long time that Adam’s fans are all OTT but they don’t seem to be bulk buying or gifting several copies left and right. So is this a good or bad thing?

It’s definitely a good thing IMO. Bulk buying just to drive up numbers is really silly and will only serve to create false impressions.
As for TfM, it has been released internationally, making gifting much less necessary than for other idol releases. I was following ontd_ai’s thread right when LLWD was released and there was a lot of frenzied gifting going on because it was only released in the US, initially. International release didn’t follow until a week or two later IIRC. TfM was released in several European countries (including ours ) before it was released in the US, thus reducing the extent of gifting that I’m sure would have occurred had the release been different.

Kris should have done better in sales as the winner, but he hasn’t. I don’t think his fans are bulk buying either.

I sure hope not with the sales he’s had so far!

Was glad to read that Matthew West has written a song for Danny. I really like his song “The Motions”. It is a #1 hit on his latest album.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLJF9vaIJ_0

I actually find this interesting. We’ve heard for a long time that Adam’s fans are all OTT but they don’t seem to be bulk buying or gifting several copies left and right. So is this a good or bad thing?

I have never seen any actually facts that support these claims of OTT Adam fans — but don’t see any evidence of it online. Generally, the online fanbase is passionate but very disorganized.

Every piece of real data I have seen shows he has two large, discrete groups of fans — a younger fan base teens and early 20′s that are demographically diverse — and women in their 35 to 59, white and college educated. And neither of these Adam fan populations has a high percentage of AI viewers in it.

You can definitely buy multiple copies on iTunes, have done it (both by accident and intentionally, lol). I think you have to download each separately though, or at least haven’t seen a way to do multiple downloads in one buy.

I don’t know how fast the numbers came for the Davids – I only remember that Archuleta’s cd was the highest charting new song (#2) in 18 months of new songs. (And I have not one time heard Crush played on the radio in the SF Bay Area – total blackout)

In the long run, I don’t think the multiple-copy buying reflects anything because with the Davids, I think people bought copies for their family or for holiday gifts, but I think that would only matter for people who had very low sales ‘“ it might get them on the radar initially. But, for the Davids, with Cook’s platinum cd and Archuleta’s 800,000 cd and Crush just about to hit double-platinum, multiple cd/single buying was more of a thank-you to the artists they love.

All of the this happened over time didn’t it, they didn’t go platinum in a week or did they?

Of course it took time, although I think Cookie went Platinum in three months or something. I think their slower, more prolonged sales actually proves the point that Archie and Cook have expanded beyond their initial AI Fanbase. I anticipate that both Adam and Kris can do the same, depending on their material.

JohnM
October 24, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Tess: see so many avid Canadian posters here at MJs. Is American Idol that big in Canada and are canadians allowed to vote? Or are you guys lucky enough to Satellite some US tv?

Although I’m American and now live in the Deep South ‘” about 3-4 hours south of Montreal ‘” I grew up on the US-Canadian border and have spent a lot of time in Canada, so I can tell you that Canadian cable systems carry US TV. You don’t need to pick it up on satellite.

Are Canadians like Brits?

I’m sure Kirsten etc. will give you their take on that (and might already have by the time I post this), but as an American growing up closer to Canadian cities than to any US city and spending a lot of time in Canada, my feeling is that Canadians are sort of between Brits and Americans ‘” the best of both, IMO. As for being like Brits, I always remember being introduced to Monty Python by the CBC station in Ottawa in the early 70s, a few years before most Americans ever heard of it.

Umm yeah ok.. LOL Canadians are multicultural I bet if you added up all the English speaking Canadians for lack of a better term you would find that we are the minority if compared to all the other cultures.. also the French speaking Canadians for lack of a better term may find being compared to Brits ‘ ¦ ummm unpleasant.. but luckily I don’t know any Canadians without a sense of humour ‘ ¦

Here’s Amazon’s just-released preorder top 10, and overall first-week sales for those records.
1. Susan Boyle, I Dreamed a Dream (2009′”first-week sales TK)
2. Norah Jones, Not Too Late (2007′”first-week sales 405,000)
3. U2, No Line on the Horizon (2009′”first-week sales 484,000)
4. Bruce Springsteen, Magic (2007′”first-week sales 335,000)
5. Dixie Chicks, Taking the Long Way (2006′”first-week sales 526,000)
6. Coldplay, ‘Viva La Vida (2008′”first-week sales 722,000)
7. U2, How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (2004′”first-week sales 840,000)
8. David Cook (2008′”first-week sales 280,000)
9. Diana Krall, Quiet Nights (2009′”first-week sales 104,000)
10. Clay Aiken, A Thousand Different Ways (2006′”first-week sales 211,000)

In context.

TfM is a movie song and we all know it is not his first “single.” Not sure the gen pop knows this. This old fashioned rock ballad is still sitting comfortably in the Top 20 in Pop on iTunes. Pretty incredible if you ask me considering what the normal Top 10 sound like. None of my friends or relatives (who are big Adam fans) had a clue about the movie or the song until I sent them a link to listen to it.

Here is my question: Is the first single for the AI guys usually available to download for a week illegally before they come out for sale? Would this skew the download results any?

even the devoted fans won’t buy it

Oh, the devoted ones bought it. But you can’t get to #1 on ITunes without casual fans buying too. You’re right though, it was a movie song and not a particularly well written one, so I’ll wait for Adam’s first album single, and Adam and Kris’s albums to be released before I judge whether this season of AI was fail in terms of selling things or not.

Btw, I’ve been predicting that SuBo would sell #1 from the very beginning. I feel so validated. No one believed me on any of the sites I post at… but now there’s a chance I’ll be right. Haha. I want Adam to debut in the Top 5 though. To be honest, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t.

However, I wonder, once Adam releases his album and starts putting on his own shows, whether he will still sing TfM or abandon it, like David did with ToML.

My vote is abandon it! And unlike TOML, it doesn’t appear that TfM is going to be some big, inexplicable, hit. Plus it’s not Adam’s coronation song, and actually has no tie to AI, beyond him and has not emotional attachment to his fans. Like TOML evidently does to his win for some Cook fans. So I don’t see that Adam will face that kind of pressure to sing the song, and if I had to guess, would say he’d be happy to keep it in a 2012 box and outside his life performances.

They better hope so. They’ve spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting him, almost to the point of being annoying. Premiering a single on the AMA’s on top of everything else they’ve given to him ‘“ if it doesn’t work for him there are really no excuses. To me it seems they are trying mostly to sell his image. We’ll see how well people take to that.

Unless something new was announced and I missed it. Adam single should be out way before the AMAs. The AMAs is supposed to be the first time he performs it live not the first time it’s heard.

‘That being said, Kris’s fans are still hopeful that radio play will turn his around and gain more sales. They repeat it every day. It hasn’t yet. But, with Adam, he is supposedly failing because he is doing better than the guy that won but not as good a non-fans expected.’ 

Thanks for saying what I was trying to elaborate and couldnt. TFM will prob sell in one week what LLWD sold in 4 weeks, so I cant understand how this is bad in any shape of form. TFM didnt have airplay and its not his album single, many fans are waiting for the album. Those inflated expectations are created by non-fans, not for adam’s fans. Who likes adam knows that he is not for everybody.

On other notice, I am happy because I found Details in this lost continent, so I am here with my copy feeling that I live in a not so uncivilized place.

It’s entirely possible that fans of both Adam and Kris are bulk buying but are also savvy enough not to admit to it. Regardless, I don’t think bulk buying has had a huge impact on overall sales of any of the Idols, at least not for those whose stuff went gold or platinum. Bulk buying may effect first days’ rankings on the charts, but after that, a song lives or dies by how well it sells in the general marketplace. I mean how many actual sales can we be talking about when we discuss bulk buying? I would speculate that illegal downloading is a much bigger issue than bulk buying for any artist, even the Idols, whose built in fanbases have something “to prove.”

‘That being said, Kris’s fans are still hopeful that radio play will turn his around and gain more sales. They repeat it every day. It hasn’t yet. But, with Adam, he is supposedly failing because he is doing better than the guy that won but not as good a non-fans expected.’ 

Thanks for saying what I was trying to elaborate and couldnt. TFM will prob sell in one week what LLWD sold in 4 weeks, so I cant understand how this is bad in any shape of form. TFM didnt have airplay and its not his album single, many fans are waiting for the album. Those inflated expectations are created by non-fans, not for adam’s fans.

LOL yeah. Very well stated, both of you. I wholeheartedly agree. If it’s too early to judge Kris’s potential for success… it’s WAY too early to judge Adam’s.

ETA: Dallas, editing has been limited to 20 minutes after the comment is posted, so that might be why.

I tried to edit my last post but for some reason I couldn’t. I meant to say would this not skew the download sales results for Adam compared to the first single release of the others. Just curious.

Every piece of real data I have seen shows he has two large, discrete groups of fans ‘” a younger fan base teens and early 20′s that are demographically diverse ‘” and women in their 35 to 59, white and college educated. And neither of these Adam fan populations has a high percentage of AI viewers in it.

There is reliable data that shows Adam’s fanbase demographics with such accuracy?
A study that showed his fans were discrete and don’t watch AI seems bizarre to me.

So do we know if Adam’s “real” single will be released this week? Are there any speculations?

Btw, I’ve been predicting that SuBo would sell #1 from the very beginning. I feel so validated. No one believed me on any of the sites I post at’ ¦

Hey, I said the same thing, so I believed you. harumpf. And yeah, top 5 for Adam would be good for him. And yeah, I’m going to wait until a real single is out there and the full albums, before I judge as well.

Q3: ‘But I believe there is a good change that Adam may sell more albums that Archie did ‘” even in this economy.’ 

Buddy: They better hope so. They’ve spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting him, almost to the point of being annoying. Premiering a single on the AMA’s on top of everything else they’ve given to him ‘“ if it doesn’t work for him there are really no excuses. To me it seems they are trying mostly to sell his image. We’ll see how well people take to that.

He’ll probably have to sell double of what Archie did to just repay what’s already been spent. No idea what he’ll have to sell to actually make money, but I’d be willing to bet it’s going to be a hefty number.

What has RCA spent on marketing Adam so far? There has been some 2012 marketing that included Adam but that is in the 2012 budget. All I can see in the way of Adam marketing has been free media and online promos. There will be expenses to perform on the AMA’s but that is trival compared to radio promo costs. The TfM MV was out of the 2012 budget. The 2012 PR was done by Columbia Pictures.

So far there has been no paid Adam Lambert advertising, no big production appearances (his only performances where the Idol Live! tour and GMA concert), no radio promo —

I follow Adam very closely but I could have missed some paid media advertising but I don’t think so.

And a major label recording artist never has to repay production and marketing expenses — they get royalties on sales and, if there is a profit, they get a percentage of the profits.

Finally, they didn’t give Adam the AMA’s, Dick Clark Productions requested Adam. They didn’t give Adam Oprah, when they surveyed Oprah’s audience, Adam won the favorite reality star poll. Same for 2012, Lady GaGa, RedOne, Pink, Justin Hawkins, Greg Wells, Dr. Luke, and so on — people want to work with Adam.

Hey, I said the same thing, so I believed you. harumpf. And yeah, top 5 for Adam would be good for him. And yeah, I’m going to wait until a real single is out there and the full albums, before I judge as well.

And what exactly would we be judging when all is said and done? My judging was done the moment I heard Adam sing.. “OMG I really like this mans voice, I am so buying his record when it comes out”..

BootStar
October 24, 2009 at 2:58 pm

It’s entirely possible that fans of both Adam and Kris are bulk buying but are also savvy enough not to admit to it.

Well it’s entirely possible that was the same with David and David too – assumptions can be applied to everyone. But I do doubt it in this case especially with how fans where flying across country to see concerts and what not, if they wanted to boost sales with bulk buying Adam would still be in the top ten.

I expect that Adam’s single would have been chosen by next week after the second showing of MJ’s TII. If they don’t release it by Nov. 3, I would bet it will be out a week before AMA to keep the momentum on his first live performance of the single. Whatever his management plans are, a list of his album track by next week is what I’m looking forward to. I guess I’m already tired waiting for his first album single to come out.

And what exactly would we be judging when all is said and done? My judging was done the moment I heard Adam sing.. ‘OMG I really like this mans voice, I am so buying his record when it comes out’ ..

We’d be judging Adam’s potential for commercial success.

I’ve also “judged” Adam as a performer, singer, and person and found him very, very worthy already too…

Heh…speaking of 1st tunes not being really representative of what is on an AI album…nobo, toml, now adams Tfm….what were the I-tunes downloads for Kris’ nobo and David’s toml. Did toml go right to the top and stay there?

My vote is abandon it! And unlike TOML, it doesn’t appear that TfM is going to be some big, inexplicable, hit.

I think its a little too early to make such predictions…the movie hasn’t even opened yet! I think that TfM could be a big hit if it is marketed correctly — but who knows whether TPTB have any plans to do so.

From following Cook last year, it seems like there was a lot more fan “competition” in terms of single/album sales for the David’s. At one time there was even talk of fan groups buying up everything around their rival’s single in an attempt to keep it from moving up the ITunes chart, lol.

I like to think of TFM as a little gift (and I love the song and hope we will get some opportunity sometime to hear it performed live because the vocal is gorgeous), but I will wait for Adam’s album before I get too excited about how he is being received. Honestly, I would just love to see him break that 2.5 star Idol curse, lol.

I know that there are threads on ontd_ai and IDF for “gifting” Adam’s and Kris’ music to people who either can’t aford to buy it themselves or don’t have access to iTunes, Amazon, etc.

But I’ve never understood why people would buy multiple copies of the same thing for themselves. I know people want to support their favorites, but what is the point of getting 5 or 10 copies of the same song or same album? The most I could see myself getting is 2 — one off of iTunes and 1 hard copy.

But are people panicking about Adam’s song falling down the iTunes charts already? Personally I thought TFM is simply the wrong type of song to hit #1. OTT ballads aren’t really in vogue right now, no matter how beautifully they are sung. Adam should have a much better chance of hitting #1 when he puts out his own stuff, since pop/electronic/dance music is quite popular right now.

As for Kris, the sales aren’t great when compared to what other Idols did with their debuts, but if LLWD was doing this well with Kris having no affiliation to Idol, people would be saying it’s doing just fine. And the radio play has steadily increased — it has a very good shot at being in the Top 40 in both the pop and HAC charts for radio play this coming week. So it’s not like Kris isn’t getting any notice at all.

I don’t expect either Adam’s or Kris’ albums to be #1 the week they are released, nor do I expect them to go multi-platinum. If either goes platinum, that would be a major achievement given the current economy and the state of the music business. My expectations are pretty modest — that they both do well enough to hold onto their record deals and be allowed to put out a 2nd…a 3rd…a 4th…album. There have been a bunch of one-hit wonders or teen sensations who disappear quickly. I would like for Adam and Kris to still be making their music and be at least somewhere on the radar in terms of successful acts 5 or 10 years from now. If either of them becomes a superstar with a bunch of Top 5 hits or several Grammy/AMA nominations — well, that would just be the cherry on top.

So I don’t see that Adam will face that kind of pressure to sing the song, and if I had to guess, would say he’d be happy to keep it in a 2012 box and outside his life performances.

Yes, but it’s going to be on his album, right? And the more casual fan isn’t as in tune with the differences between this song and any other single of his. All they’ll know is that he got his break off of appearing on AI and that this song is on his first album.

Valentin432

Every piece of real data I have seen shows he has two large, discrete groups of fans ‘” a younger fan base teens and early 20′s that are demographically diverse ‘” and women in their 35 to 59, white and college educated. And neither of these Adam fan populations has a high percentage of AI viewers in it.

There is reliable data that shows Adam’s fanbase demographics with such accuracy?
A study that showed his fans were discrete and don’t watch AI seems bizarre to me.

Yes, Adam is now in the two major brand personality celebrity surveys. And he has high name identification/awareness and very high positives right now. But the people who know him and are willing to buy products endorsed by him (a big number) index at 95 and 91 (depends on study) on AI viewership. That means they are 5% to 9% less likely to watch AI than the average American.

It will be interesting to see in the positive score drops over time or not — it depends on how far he pushes the boundaries. Madonna have extremely high recognition but low approval scores (not surprising to anyone I’m sure).

BTW — In market research “discrete population groups” means that there are specific groups that have unique identifying charateristics. Sorry for using a buzz word.

We’d be judging Adam’s potential for commercial success.

Ahhhhh I see but is’nt that like crytal ball sleuthing.. LOL

Interesting to note that majority of the discussion here has nothing to do with the headlines posted… not that I’m complaining. I’m new btw. From what I can surmise, this Adam guy’s generating a lot of buzz even on threads not dedicated to him… have known about this site for a while and just noticed the number comments on news concerning him. Guess I’ll have to do some research about him…

I like to think of TFM as a little gift (and I love the song and hope we will get some opportunity sometime to hear it performed live because the vocal is gorgeous), but I will wait for Adam’s album before I get too excited about he is being received. Honestly, I would just love to see him break that 2.5 star Idol curse, lol.

Me too and I really believe we may get a live performance of TfM on the Oscars. Also if Oprah do a 2012 show he may sing then, even if he’s there solo I have a feeling he would sing TfM.

Yes, Adam is now in the two major brand personality celebrity surveys. And he has high name identification/awareness and very high positives right now. But the people who know him and are willing to buy products endorsed by him (a big number) index at 95 and 91 (depends on study) on AI viewership. That means they are 5% to 9% less likely to watch AI than the average American.

Wait, link to these? Or are these surveys only for industry peeps.

But if that’s true it would explain a lot. Are Kris or Cook or other Idol alumni in these surveys as well? I’m interested in what their stats are.

Also, I dont know if RCA/19 plans to put much promotion behind TFM…the song has already gotten a bunch of (more or less free) publicity because it’s on a movie soundtrack and because of Adam’s multiple magazine shoots/covers. I would think they are more likely to save the big promotional push for Adam’s true debut single and the album.

There’s a new Behind the Scenes for Time for Miracles video (Access Hollywood)

Sherena

Yes, Adam is now in the two major brand personality celebrity surveys. And he has high name identification/awareness and very high positives right now. But the people who know him and are willing to buy products endorsed by him (a big number) index at 95 and 91 (depends on study) on AI viewership. That means they are 5% to 9% less likely to watch AI than the average American.

Wait, link to these? Or are these surveys only for industry peeps.

Very expensive subscriptions that cannot be replublished. My company buys ad media (among other things) so I have access to a lot of cool data.

Needless to say — Adam’s numbers are good, and it looks like he is on track to becoming a major celebrity. Now let’s see if he can also become a major recording artist. My bet is yes, he’ll be both.

Yes, Adam is now in the two major brand personality celebrity surveys. And he has high name identification/awareness and very high positives right now. But the people who know him and are willing to buy products endorsed by him (a big number) index at 95 and 91 (depends on study) on AI viewership. That means they are 5% to 9% less likely to watch AI than the average American.

It will be interesting to see in the positive score drops over time or not ‘” it depends on how far he pushes the boundaries. Madonna have extremely high recognition but low approval scores (not surprising to anyone I’m sure).

BTW ‘” In market research ‘discrete population groups’  means that there are specific groups that have unique identifying charateristics. Sorry for using a buzz word.

Im curious as to what you mean by this. (Im intrigued but I cant understand all of what you’re saying). Could you elaborate?

I am not sure how the sales are in my country but what is normal here is to download music from limewire and video from torrent. Sadly poorer sales is expected because of availability of bootleg copies. People just don’t buy their music anymore. Just yesterday, when i announce that i will be giving itunes for gifts (of course, once my friend in the US purchase the songs for me) this christmas. Everybody (around 25 people) told me to just download the music and not bother with buying it.

“So, with the economy and with what you posted above, yes, one cannot compare a soundtrack with a single coming off a debut album.”"

Yes, the economy is in such free fall, fans can’t afford the $1.29 for a download. That would surely put them in the poor house. Amazingly enough some of Adam’s fans could afford to donate significant amounts of $ to his fav charity. Kind of odd isn’t it.

I really don’t think the economy is the reason. I think a)the song ain’t great b)Adam’s fan base is intense but may not be as large as Cook’s last year.

I’m still not sure where all the S8 fans are. Kris has a tiny fanbase and Adam’s is smaller than first expected. Oh Danny boy? Are your fans the missing link. Or maybe Anoop???

Heh’ ¦speaking of 1st tunes not being really representative of what is on an AI album’ ¦nobo, toml, now adams Tfm’ ¦.what were the I-tunes downloads for Kris’ nobo and David’s toml. Did toml go right to the top and stay there?

I can’t speak for NoBo, but I’m sure there are back postings at MJ’s where you could find NoBo’s I-Tunes numbers.

Here is TOML’s download numbers, by the week. (Week one was a short week, since it was available for download after the finale.)

Wk 1: 236,024
Wk 2: 163,287
Wk 3: 79,800
Wk 4: 43,780
Wk 5: 34,961

Succeeding weeks’ downloads and charting statistics can be found here, compliments of ladymadonnna at DCO. It does not, however, have the I-Tunes rankings, but does list the Billboard Chart numbers.

Very expensive subscriptions that cannot be replublished. My company buys ad media (among other things) so I have access to a lot of cool data.

Ooh, I’m jealous! I love data. But thanks for sharing regarding Adam ^.^

“Unless something new was announced and I missed it. Adam single should be out way before the AMAs. The AMAs is supposed to be the first time he performs it live not the first time it’s heard.”

“Adam is set to perform his yet-to-be determined lead single from his upcoming album, For Your Enertainment, due out 11/23.”

The AMAs air on 11/22, I believe. I’m not sure when his single is supposed to be out, but to me it doesn’t seem like it will be out “way” before. My point being, he basically is premiering his single on national television. His album goes up for sale the next day. He also got national television exposure for two days before TfM went up for sale, not to mention all the written exposure he’s had. There really is no comparing this type of exposure to someone who got a premiere on a radio station, or in some cases online. He’s really going to have to sell BIG to live up the exposure and hype he’s had. Like it or not, people do look at their first numbers. They may not indicate what they may sell over time, but it does give a starting point. They’ve put him on a pretty high platform. I wish him luck!!

I don’t think there is any plan for RCA/19 to actively promote TFM. They will let the movie and Michael Jackson opener do this for them. If there is enough interest—2010 isn’t even out yet—then radio will pick it up. All the real promotion will be saved for the album and single, which is how it should be.

Im curious as to what you mean by this. (Im intrigued but I cant understand all of what you’re saying). Could you elaborate?

There are research firms that offer regular research reports that provide information about celebrities — how famous they are (awareness), how much people like them, how much people trust them, etc. These reports are one tool used to decide who to use for product endorsements and in TV commercials. The most famous of these is the Q Score. Here is a link to the Q Score Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q_Score

I can’t speak for NoBo, but I’m sure there are back postings at MJ’s where you could find NoBo’s I-Tunes numbers.

Here is TOML’s download numbers, by the week. (Week one was a short week, since it was available for download after the finale.)

Wk 1: 236,024
Wk 2: 163,287
Wk 3: 79,800
Wk 4: 43,780
Wk 5: 34,961

Future weeks’ downloads and charting statistics can be found here, compliments of ladymadonnna at DCO. It does not, however, have the I-Tunes rankings, but does list the Billboard Chart numbers.

TOML was a different egg – it had great momentum from the show ending with a great finale. LO numbers are the ones I would use to compare the first single too.

Buddy– if what you’re saying is true and Adam’s single is released really close to his AMA performance, it also means that his single will be released really close to his album release and it won’t have had time to build and get him radio exposure before his album. So his first week sales will be based on existing fanbase alone.

Also, I’m not sure why he has to “live up” to any hype. What happens if he doesn’t? Some people on AI fanboards and blogs will call him a failure. Anyone outside of the bubble won’t care.

But it’s nice that you wish him luck; I do too!

Well as too where all the Fan’s went? its an interesting topic. It could be possible that people who watched the show where only invested at the time of airing. The Fan’s have ADD. The ones who voted lost faith in there Idol. The Idols have been sent out into the RW and its a shark eat shark Scenario

@leeann
October 24, 2009 at 3:21 pm
There’s a new Behind the Scenes for Time for Miracles video (Access Hollywood)

Cool! Thanks for posting!

I’m still not sure where all the S8 fans are. Kris has a tiny fanbase and Adam’s is smaller than first expected. Oh Danny boy? Are your fans the missing link. Or maybe Anoop???

Kris’s fan base has to be more than tiny, he did win after all, and did pretty well with earlier iTunes releases. I think a lot of listeners were just confused by LLWD. It didn’t sound much at all like anything Kris did on the AI show or tour, and the heavy production and shifts of gear in that song made it hard to even recognize it was Kris for much of the tune. I read one AI-friendly reviewer who said he listenened to the song 7 times (!) before deciding he liked it. That can’t ever be a good thing.

There probably are significant numbers of Danny fans out there who have yet to be heard from in the post-season AI8 buying patterns, but a lot of Danny fans do like Kris or Adam, or both, and are willing to support them if they like the songs they release.

I’ve bought nothing. I will buy a hard copy if I like an album. My guess is that I may buy Kris’ album but I don’t know. I don’t buy singles. I buy an album or nothing. If I like a single, I can listen on YouTube. The jury is still out on whether I’ll buy anything from this year or not…chances are not as I’ve only bought one album from any Idol ever.

Also, I’m not sure why he has to ‘live up’  to any hype, lol. What happens if he doesn’t? Some people on AI fanboards and blogs will call him a failure. Anyone outside of the bubble won’t know or care.

So true —

I think that no matter what happens with Adam — some people will consider him a success and some a failure.

What constitutes success? Is a recording artist successful only if they have a Billboard #1 hit? Or are they successful if they have a Gold album?

Where is sue? I was hoping she would have some twitter scoops on what songs made the cut on Adams album. I am still hoping Alisan and Aimee will make it, but it’s a cruel world.

And a major label recording artist never has to repay production and marketing expenses ‘” they get royalties on sales and, if there is a profit, they get a percentage of the profits.

As far as my understanding of the systems goes, they have to pay back especially with a major label. This recoupment means the artist have to pay back until the label get the money of the investment back.

As for Kris, the sales aren’t great when compared to what other Idols did with their debuts, but if LLWD was doing this well with Kris having no affiliation to Idol, people would be saying it’s doing just fine.

And IF John McCain had won the Presidency, Sarah Palin would be VP. We can make assumptions all day long. But, it doesn’t change reality.

S8 is just very odd. The tour did as well as S7 but the first week sales for the single are significantly down from what either of the David’s did.
It’s possible for LLWD and TfM just haven’t connected with the fans. At least Adam has another shot with the “real” first single.

Yes, the economy is in such free fall, fans can’t afford the $1.29 for a download. That would surely put them in the poor house. Amazingly enough some of Adam’s fans could afford to donate significant amounts of $ to his fav charity. Kind of odd isn’t it.

Not really. The state of the economy was tied in to Adam’s charity. Anyone with kids who go to public schools know that we were hit with huge cuts. As a fan, I would rather put my money into programs that help kids hit hard by this economy than to spend money buying MULTIPLE copies of the same song to boost an idol’s numbers.

As far as Adam’s single, I am surprised it did so well since the general public is now aware of it. Yes, he has a strong fan base, but I don’t see that they are so OTT to waste money on buying multiple copies of the same thing just to boost his numbers.

So for me, Adam is doing terrific. I wouldn’t write off Kris yet either, but his numbers are more troubling since Kris beat a hugely popular personality (ADAM) on the #1 show in America and his sales are still lagging. But like I said earlier, he could turn out like Jordin, a platinum selling artists.

S8 is just very odd. The tour did as well as S7 but the first week sales for the single are significantly down from what either of the David’s did. It’s possible for LLWD and TfM just haven’t connected with the fans. At least Adam has another shot with the ‘real’  first single.

I think it’s even more odd considering LLWD is one of the better idol singles, imo.

Where is sue? I was hoping she would have some twitter scoops on what songs made the cut on Adams album

I think she said she would be away for the weekend…niece’s Bat Mitzvah. Not sure I spelled that right.

It’s possible for LLWD and TfM just haven’t connected with the fans. At least Adam has another shot with the ‘real’  first single

Possibly – although I adore TfM.

I thought the implications was that because of the poor economy, peeps weren’t buying Adam’s single. I just don’t buy that as a significant reason. The #1 song on iTunes this week will still sell way over 100,000. It just won’t be TfM.

Every piece of real data I have seen shows he has two large, discrete groups of fans ‘” a younger fan base teens and early 20′s that are demographically diverse ‘” and women in their 35 to 59, white and college educated. And neither of these Adam fan populations has a high percentage of AI viewers in it.

I think there’s a distinct group of 35-59 year old college educated women who are passionate AI watchers. They may not fall into the traditional AI family demographic, but they show up all the time at places like MJ’s, and other AI fan message boards. They’re the women who support fervently their AI favorite, buy his CDs (as best I can tell, these women perfer male Idolettes), travel repeatedly to his concerts, and generally get the best seats. They film the videos and write the angry letters. They say, “I don’t know why I care so deeply about X (or Y or Z), but I do and it’s fun and it’s my hobby and it makes me happy.”

I’ve thought for a while now there’s a great master’s thesis to be written about the professional woman AI fan. Occasionally one of them will write an essay for Newsweek or the suchlike, but the mystery of what there is about Idol that makes educated women care so deeply intrigues me.

TOML was a different egg ‘“ it had great momentum from the show ending with a great finale. LO numbers are the ones I would use to compare the first single too.

I’m not sure I understand why anyone is looking at TOML in comparison to TfM. Should TOML be compared only to Kris’s version of NoBo? We’re talking about what an Idol winner’s coronation single did. How can those numbers be looked at in comparison to a movie soundtrack themesong from a runner-up?

ETA: I guess I’m getting a little confused about all the comparisons being thrown around. My lack of AI-savviness, no doubt.

Well, TFM still has a life, and could move up again after the premier of TII and 2012. Does anyone know what will be shown in the beginning of TII? The MV or another promo?

“Buddy: They better hope so. They’ve spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting him, almost to the point of being annoying. Premiering a single on the AMA’s on top of everything else they’ve given to him ‘“ if it doesn’t work for him there are really no excuses. To me it seems they are trying mostly to sell his image. We’ll see how well people take to that.

He’ll probably have to sell double of what Archie did to just repay what’s already been spent. No idea what he’ll have to sell to actually make money, but I’d be willing to bet it’s going to be a hefty number.”

Isn’t TFM song/video made to promote the movie vs. promoting Adam? So not much was spent on him. As for the exposure on AMA (which is a good exposure for Adam IMO) this is not an expense to the recording company but rather to Dick Clarks’ company. From my limited knowledge of how media network operates, a music is no expense to the company if the media outfit is the one who initiated the request. It only becomes an expense when networks doesn’t pick-up the artists’ music. IMO opinion, riding on his popularity with media network/press is the most cost efficient way of promoting Adam.

Buddy’“ if what you’re saying is true and Adam’s single is released really close to his AMA performance, it also means that his single will be released really close to his album release and it won’t have had time to build and get him radio exposure before his album. So his first week sales will be based on existing fanbase.

I think first week sales or first 24 hours sales are always based on existing fanbase for any AI. Therefore, when people are making comparisons here regarding singles or album successes based on a few days/weeks (even hours) data, I always understand that they are just trying to gauge how large the existing fanbase actually is — as opposed to making predictions regarding long term success.

From experience, I think we’ve learned that you can’t extrapolate first week/day sales as any reliable indicator of long term success. However, the promo being given any particular Idol does (IMO) do give some indication as to how big the label/19 PTB expect/hope the Idol to blow up outside the bubble in the long term. From all indications, it seems they are expecting great things from Adam.

BTW, with regard to paid media, do you think $$ changed hands with regard to promoting Adam’s TFM video prior to the TII premiere? I think of that as much an Adam promotion as a 2012 promotion (if not more Adam). If $$ did change hands, would it have come out of Adam’s album promo or 2012 album promo, or shared?

ETA:

I’m not sure I understand why anyone is looking at TOML in comparison to TfM.

I agree. But I think someone else earlier in the thread asked for a comparison and wordnerdarchie just obliged with the (readily available) data on TOML. (In addition to word nerds, Cook also has lots of number nerds fans. Heh.)

Like it or not, people do look at their first numbers. They may not indicate what they may sell over time, but it does give a starting point.

Poor Kris.

To me, Adam did very well to place in the top 20 on iTunes (top 10-12?) with his first post-AI single. For his most intense fans, though, expectations seem to be OTT for him.

I think some casual Adam fans also could be confused by TFM, since it is so close in time to Adam’s first official single for his own music. They aren’t sure whether to pick up TFM, or wait for the “real” single that may sound more like his real direction for the future. Not as bad as the confusion whether to buy those older session tracks that came out after the AI finale, but still — having TFM and the unnamed “real” single up for discussion during roughly the same period of time still muddies up the picture for those who aren’t following every twist and turn these AI8 contestants are taking now.

Sherena
October 24, 2009 at 3:32 pm

Buddy’“ if what you’re saying is true and Adam’s single is released really close to his AMA performance, it also means that his single will be released really close to his album release and it won’t have had time to build and get him radio exposure before his album. So his first week sales will be based on existing fanbase alone.

Also, I’m not sure why he has to ‘live up’  to any hype. What happens if he doesn’t? Some people on AI fanboards and blogs will call him a failure. Anyone outside of the bubble won’t care.

But it’s nice that you wish him luck; I do too!

Also keep in mind that Daughtry’s single and album were released on the same day – 11/21/06. This didn’t hurt Daughtry.

I’m not sure I understand why anyone is looking at TOML in comparison to TfM. Should TOML be compared only to Kris’s version of NoBo? We’re talking about what an Idol winner’s coronation single did. How can those numbers be looked at in comparison to a movie soundtrack themesong from a runner-up?

I’m not sure I would even compare TOML & NoBo. Neither songs were selected by the artist – they are both forced coronation songs. Yuck. I’m more interested in comparing LLWD to any winner’s first single.

I have to say this. Bulk buying does not make much of a difference in the total number of album or single sales. If 1000 OTT fans bulk buys 10 singles each that is still only 10,000 total singles. Same goes with albums. When you look at Archie’s single or Light On they have both sold over 1 million, Archie more, it is 1% of the total amount of singles sold. Bulk buying making any kind of difference is a MYTH because it does not. When you sell 1, 240,000 records it is not because your fans bulk buy or even that it is all AI fans. It is not the case. I just think that it is not fair to Archie or David C. to say that their success is because of bulk buying or gifting because the amount that adds up to is minuscule.

However, I wonder, once Adam releases his album and starts putting on his own shows, whether he will still sing TfM or abandon it, like David did with ToML.

My vote is abandon it! And unlike TOML, it doesn’t appear that TfM is going to be some big, inexplicable, hit. Plus it’s not Adam’s coronation song, and actually has no tie to AI, beyond him and has not emotional attachment to his fans. Like TOML evidently does to his win for some Cook fans. So I don’t see that Adam will face that kind of pressure to sing the song, and if I had to guess, would say he’d be happy to keep it in a 2012 box and outside his life performances.

Well I won’t abandon it and I hope Adam doesn’t either.

As for the album single, I’d be surprised if it’s released before the week of November 16th. I don’t see that doing him any harm exposurewise, considering he is going to be performing it in front of millions of people on the AMA’s. Unless people have REALLY short memories, if they see the performance and like it, they can run out and buy the CD the next day because no doubt they will be told in Adam’s introduction when his CD is being released. I think the AMA’s are going to be used as a launching pad for both the single and the CD.

Also keep in mind that Daughtry’s single and album were released on the same day ‘“ 11/21/06. This didn’t hurt Daughtry.

I had no idea. Good info.

TOML was a different egg ‘“ it had great momentum from the show ending with a great finale. LO numbers are the ones I would use to compare the first single too.

The LO sales numbers to comparison purposes starting with 10/18/09 sales data:

Week 1: 109,035
Week 2: 30,966
Week 3: 15,083
Week 4: 33,598
Week 5: 19,469

More information can be found at this link
http://www.scribd.com/full/7827197?access_key=key-7ts10q778qssiqi3e0x

My theory on Adam’s TFM sales being less than amazeballs:

Firstly, the I-tunes leak overseas spread like wildfire, and not all fans are honest about going back and buying what they stole.

Secondly, many fans have pre-ordered Adam’s album. With the misconception that TFM is a single from that as yet unreleased (or even tracklisted) album, they are going to wait for it.

Thirdly, many fans have already pre-ordered 2012 and are willing to listen to their pirated single while waiting for their album to ship.

Fourth, casual fans don’t even know the song is available to be purchased. They’ve seen some video footage, they’ve seen Adam on a few entertainment shows – but the album is not available. Which to me, is a good reason to wait for promo until there is something to buy right then and there.

I’m feeling good, got my two copies of Details yesterday, when i got the call they were in, told only 3 copies were available, and the day before at least 8 of the Oct were still there, love, love it, then Adam’s FYE has been at #1 on Amazon’s Bestsellers new and future releases – Rock category, this has been for some days, a little fluctuation on the “All Category” list, but moving up again – staying in the top 10 since listed, but, in the Rock category staying at #1. Listening endlessly to TFM, love it, he’s gorgeous in the vid, and recognizing that we’re going to be Entertained like never before with Adam’s premiere CD, so many chocolates, definitely waiting for the “whitechocolatespaceegg.” I think its awesome what Adam has achieved in these last few months, to be so talented, so gorgeous, and to be able to get out there and do “IT” ~ all For OUR Entertainment, Fierce and Lovely, thanks Adam!

As for the album single, I’d be surprised if it’s released before the week of November 16th.

Interesting, you might be right. What if they release the week before the AMA’s and count on his core fanbase to get it into top 10 and then get the exposure of AMA to keep it in the top 10? Would be a good plan…

TOML Light On
Wk 1: 236,000 109,000
Wk 2: 163,000 30,000
Wk 3: 89,000 15,000
Wk 4: 44,000 19,000
Wk 5: 35,000 18,000

From what peeps have presented these are the comparables for David Cooks first 2 singles. 1 being AI driven (coronation song) and one being released just prior to his album. His album sold 280k its first week and was up to 582k 30 days later.

I’m not making anything out of these numbers…people can process them however they like. I’m just saying that numberous “stuff” is wrapped up in the numbers game and I’m sure that everyone has a different interpretation of these numbers. Enjoy!

TOML was a different egg ‘“ it had great momentum from the show ending with a great finale. LO numbers are the ones I would use to compare the first single too.

Squirrely, I agree with you. However, someone requested that information and I was happy to oblige them with the answer.

ETA: Aileen, I guess I didn’t refresh the page. I didn’t see your post, so I’ve removed my link to LO.

My theory on Adam’s TFM sales being less than amazeballs:

I’ll add… its a song for a movie. I wasn’t so immediately interested either. I don’t usually buy soundtrack music.

The LO sales numbers to comparison purposes starting with 10/18/09 sales data:

Ok, these were in a different ball park… TFM sales could actually be comparable to these, we’ll have to wait and see.

The last known sales number for Permanent:

Off-chart: PERMANENT – Last known total = 167,104

The song continued to sell for weeks after it was off the chart. So I think that maybe it is more around 200,000. I was off on my previous post when I posted 300,000.

I’ve thought for a while now there’s a great master’s thesis to be written about the professional woman AI fan. Occasionally one of them will write an essay for Newsweek or the suchlike, but the mystery of what there is about Idol that makes educated women care so deeply intrigues me.

I’ve been thinking it has become a modern day soap opera that women like to discuss/obsess over. It’s like a popular character who’s storyline is being dissected over a public arena. Most of the time it’s just harmless fun, but that’s what it reminds me of. Just my opinion.

As of last Billboard 200 charting of 10/17/09, Jordin’s Battlefield was #157. So it’s dropping quickly, but we’ll see what happens.

Battlefield has been out of the BB200 for a couple of weeks already. That 10/17/09 date is a week and half later than the date when the chart was actually released. Not sure if the album will return to the chart since Jordin’s latest single SOS may be a dead duck if its radio play doesn’t pick up significantly. Will they release a third single if SOS fails?

As for Season 7 and 8 comparison, I think it was fairly obvious that both Davids had significantly larger AI fanbase just from what’s been leaked about the Itunes sales during the competition (for example, both Davids hit number one on the chart and stayed higher on the chart for longer). That would rule out effect of of the economy on the purchase given that iTunes sales have been increasing year by year. I don’t think however Adam Lambert needs to worry because he is highly visible in the media and will be heavily promoted (and I do expect his first album to go platinum), but Kris Allen is a big concern because his fan base looks to be significantly smaller than Adam’s and he is not as visible. I do hope he can sell something like David Archuleta’s number, but my big hope is that he can sell more than Taylor Hicks if only to avoid gettting saddled with the tag of “the worst performing Idol winner”.

Now if you want to know LO’s figures, they can be found here, again compliments to ladymadonna at DCO. (I must say, the CJT at DCO is a great source of information. I hope Adam and Kris also have dedicated fans that are tracking these kind of things.)

No doubt both Adam and Kris have people tracking.

I just wish they would release the sales units for iTunes during the Idol season — songs and video downloads.

Week 1: 109,035
Week 2: 30,966
Week 3: 15,083
Week 4: 33,598
Week 5: 19,469

More information can be found at this link
http://www.scribd.com/full/7827197?access_key=key-7ts10q778qssiqi3e0x

That’s better – I don’t think TfM 1st week will be as strong but who knows.

As for Season 7 and 8 comparison, I think it was fairly obvious that both Davids had significantly larger AI fanbase just from what’s been leaked about the Itunes sales during the competition (for example, both Davids hit number one on the chart and stay higher on the chart for longer).

I thought we still didn’t know the totals of the S8 itunes sales since they were not public?

As for Season 7 and 8 comparison, I think it was fairly obvious that both Davids had significantly larger AI fanbase just from what’s been leaked about the Itunes sales during the competition (for example, both Davids hit number one on the chart and stay higher on the chart for longer).

I don’t know about Season 7 sales, but I know we do not have much info for Season 8 iTunes until after the show ended. Love the data if you have it. I just have the Season 8 “popularity bars leak” and post season sales.

There is no way TfM will sell 100K this week (unless it suddenly goes to #1 on iTunes.) Right now it looks to be in the 50/60K area but that could go lower if it’s ranking continues to drop on iTunes.

And Kris by all accounts looks to be heading for the weakest opening of album sales for an Idol winner ever. I think Jordin sold 110K her first week. I think Kris will have trouble getting near that number. Scary but true. No one will care that much though since the big expectations are now on Adam’s album.

They better hope so. They’ve spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting him, almost to the point of being annoying. Premiering a single on the AMA’s on top of everything else they’ve given to him ‘“ if it doesn’t work for him there are really no excuses. To me it seems they are trying mostly to sell his image. We’ll see how well people take to that.

It seems to me that most of Adam’s promotion has happened organically. All of the media attention is not paid for advertising. I don’t think it’s been ‘given to him’. But, that he has attracted the interest. I don’t see them trying to sell his image. It is only the media that has done that on its own. Whether it works for his benefit, we’ll see. I hope so. But, I don’t think it has been expensive as there has been little advertising, just media attention.

Season 7 has only post season sales. That is when David Cook broke the Billboard 100 record by having 11 songs on the hot 100.

I’ve thought for a while now there’s a great master’s thesis to be written about the professional woman AI fan. Occasionally one of them will write an essay for Newsweek or the suchlike, but the mystery of what there is about Idol that makes educated women care so deeply intrigues me.

well, i’m an ivy league educated professional woman, so here goes….you work like a dog all day at a stressful, high pressure job, you get home and start your second job helping with homework, dinner, bedtime, temper tantrums etc. etc…..once that is done, you just want to veg out on the couch and watch tv….AI is easy to watch, mindless and the producers tell good stories….since you are so busy, you probably don’t listen to the radio that much or go out to concerts as much as you did when you were in your twenties and before kids, so the AI music –even tho its just covers — is generally stuff you know but also a little bit new…so you like it; every once in a while a contestant hits a nerve in some way and you become big fan……but YMMV

And what exactly would we be judging when all is said and done? My judging was done the moment I heard Adam sing.. ‘OMG I really like this mans voice, I am so buying his record when it comes out’ ..

We’d be judging Adam’s potential for commercial success.

I’ve also ‘judged’  Adam as a performer, singer, and person and found him very, very worthy already too’ ¦

Exactly this. Though I would also add that besides my personal taste and judgement, I will be giving an opinion, juding, on whether I think it can be commercially successful. And after release, judge how commercially successful it is.

It also seems that the AI fanbase decreases with time from finale, so the earlier you get something out the better if you want to capitalize on them. Though it might not be better for attracting fans outside AI…

Couple of David Cook related tweets:

@HallmarkHomes: @thedavidcook and Xzibit are now running the auction at Grissom Air Force Base! [Hangar 200]

@HallmarkHomes: A signed guitar from @thedavidcook went for $1,150 at the auction!

Cookie and Xzibit? Heh.

I’m feeling good, got my two copies of Details yesterday, when i got the call they were in, told only 3 copies were available, and the day before at least 8 of the Oct were still there, love, love it, then Adam’s FYE has been at #1 on Amazon’s Bestsellers new and future releases ‘“ Rock category, this has been for some days, a little fluctuation on the ‘All Category’  list, but moving up again ‘“ staying in the top 10 since listed, but, in the Rock category staying at #1.

I was only able to get one copy of Details cause they sold out. Two of my friends are looking for copies today and have had not success. Boo! Anyways, where is TFM sitting today on itunes? Where is LLWD sitting? Not being snarky, just haven’t heard the latest placements in a while.

I thought the implications was that because of the poor economy, peeps weren’t buying Adam’s single. I just don’t buy that as a significant reason. The #1 song on iTunes this week will still sell way over 100,000. It just won’t be TfM

The implication to me is that people don’t want to waste money on buying bulk. There has been some discussion about the first week numbers being AI fan driven and in the good old days, fans bought multiple copies to help increase the numbers for their fav. With the economy not doing well, I am making an assumption (which we all know what happens when you assume:)) that fans are more frugal and are not going to spend money on buying multiple copies.

Judging from what little I’ve read here (and other threads so far), I feel that colossal expectations are placed on Mr. Lambert’s shoulders. I listened to this single of his, “Time For Miracles”. I believe that it’s for the movie 2012? Sounded nothing like the staple bubblegum pop I usually hear, but it does conform with its genre, the rock-power-ballad type. (which I think is good since it generally pleases people from the East). While I prefer these types of music, I don’t think it has enough commercial appeal to stay at the top of the charts. I was actually surprised it reached the top 20. That said, the guy has a lot of potential. He belts the s*** out of that song. Asians love belters…

Substitution from album to singles brings up the sales of singles. Music companies realize that and release more singles than before which increases the competition in single market. So although the total sales of singles increase, the sales of each individual single may not – the money switched from album disperse among more singles.

Wow..interesting about Susan Boyle.
I will be very interested to see how Adam’s CD does. I liked him from the start on Idol, but by the end of the season I was tired of having him crammed down my throat from every direction. OK…so I got over that as did enjoy watching him perform. I am now being turned off again by the recent publicity. IMO the photo shoot in “Details” magazine was a total sell-out of Adam Lambert by his publicists. I sure hope they know what they are doing.

but the mystery of what there is about Idol that makes educated women care so deeply intrigues me.

I don’t think its that Deep really, woman get bored!!

I don’t know about Season 7 sales, but I know we do not have much info for Season 8 iTunes until after the show ended. Love the data if you have it. I just have the Season 8 ‘popularity bars leak’  and post season sales.

Information on sales during Idol (both Season 7 and Season 8), is like the Holy Grail of Idol. Whoever has these figures and willing to release them to the public would be adored by Idol fans.

Only superfans do that kind of gifting stuff and usually only the first week or so. I’m still surprised fans who had no problem buying expensive Adam approved jewelry and multiple copies of magazines don’t have some extra $ left around to gift. (Seriously, the fact that TfM is available internationally probably did affect US sales)

David Cook got some sort of internet premier. David Archuletta got some promo from one radio station in one city. Adam premiered his song on the most watched entertainment show in the world. Neither David got a video until weeks later.

I think Light On got about 5 spins (if that) prior to being released to iTunes. Radio was slow to warm up to that song.

Actually, I wouldn’t disagree that DC’s introduction of LO was not that dissimilar to Adam’s. David debuted his single on AOL on 9/23/08 and it was released to iTunes on 9/30. Archie on the other hand premiered his single on Z-100 and had almost 2 weeks of airplay prior to his iTunes debut.

As far as spins, I think it’s a different story. According to posts in the archives, Archie had an AI of 7.669m prior to the release of Crush whereas David C.’s AI was more like 1.675m. A number of posters referred to Cook’s rollout as a slow burn and, in retrospect, it probably was. Yet, even throughout its initial week there were numerous posts listing all the radio stations that had added it to their playlists. And, one post on 10/7/2008 cites the Allaccess mediabase top 50 report which showed at least 547 spins on Pop. Not setting the world on fire, true. But still way more than the literally 5 spins TfM probably got.

Regardless, I still don’t think that charting trajectories of Crush, LO and TfM are all that indicative of fanbase size. Too many variables. And in the larger scheme, I agree with those who say it doesn’t really matter. Fanbase size coming off AI is one small measure that doesn’t really matter in the long haul.

I don’t think there is any way to predict unit sales of TfM based on the Amazon and iTune chart rankings. You can get a general direction and nothing more. Too many variables. We’ll see on Weds.

Us educated old broads and our obsessions with an AI singer…okey dokey then.

1. Its the maternal instinct
2. Its because there is this distinct connection between the artistic and the pragmatic
3. Posting and commenting helps us keep our mental faculties going, it lets the debator in us out
4. There is never a true ending to the story so it keeps our interest
5. It doesn’t affect our real lives in any true sense…so its like playing paper dolls or toy soldiers…
6. It allows us escapism from real life…that for many working women (with or without familial ties) is oftentimes stressfull.
7. Because of the format of AI we get to see a tiny bit of who these people are…so we don’t have to totally depend on “fictitious” media reports to get a bit of a base to connect to.
8. Its FUN

If I think of more I will let you know.

It amazes me how some of you know such much about sales figures and such…….it’s great for those of us who don’t have a knack for such things!

I don’t know about Season 7 sales, but I know we do not have much info for Season 8 iTunes until after the show ended. Love the data if you have it. I just have the Season 8 ‘popularity bars leak’  and post season sales.

There is only the popularity bar leaks. I’m speaking from what I can remember (although someone else probably has documented it elsewhere), the popularity bars showed that for example David Cook’s “Billie Jean” hit number 1, and was in top 20 for 3 or possibly 4 weeks (two of his other songs also went to number 1, as well as David Archuleta’s “Imagine”). The leaked one for Season 8 however showed that all of Idols that season were in comparitively (and significantly) lower positions.

Only superfans do that kind of gifting stuff and usually only the first week or so. I’m still surprised fans who had no problem buying expensive Adam approved jewelry and multiple copies of magazines don’t have some extra $ left around to gift. (Seriously, the fact that TfM is available internationally probably did affect US sales)

Who knows? Maybe Adam would be only #30 if it weren’t for those gift giving jewelry buying uberfans? All I know is there doesn’t seem to be much chatter about buying multiple copies, and from my understanding there was more chatter about that in the past.

Do we also get the international numbers as well? Soundscan is only for the US oui?

Doesn’t a movie song usually see it’s big commercial success after the movie has been released? I mean My Heart Will Go On wasn’t a hit 2 weeks before the movie came out. I don’t know if TFM will be a big hit, but it seems a little early to be calling it dead when 2012 isn’t even in theaters yet.

I hope Adam doesn’t “abandon” Tfm. I believe him when he says that he loves the song and loves what Cavallo did with it. TOML, while a huge commercial success, was so closely tied to the show I can see how David would be ready to distance himself from it (well, that and the “magic rainbow” lyric, lol).

Current itunes placement for TFM and LLWD:

#34: TFM
#137: LLWD

Last week’s sales numbers for the top 20 digital downloads (from all digital sources, including itunes and amazon):

1 1 SPEARS*BRITNEY 3 171583 -33 254640 426223
4 2 OWL CITY FIREFLIES 156343 13 138428 681259
2 3 CYRUS*MILEY PARTY IN THE U.S.A. 155670 -5 163276 1824741
3 4 DERULO*JASON WHATCHA SAY 149855 -1 152050 1239195
17 5 BLACK EYED PEAS MEET ME HALFWAY 127413 119 58238 317525
6 6 SEAN*JAY FEAT. LIL WAYNE DOWN 120246 -2 122323 1763125
8 7 JAY-Z, RIHANNA & KANYE WEST RUN THIS TOWN 111308 3 108240 1345586
5 8 LADY GAGA PAPARAZZI 108303 -12 123223 962135
10 9 IYAZ REPLAY 106704 1 105564 478307
– 10 MAYER*JOHN WHO SAYS 101939 999 77 102016
9 11 BLACK EYED PEAS I GOTTA FEELING 97136 -8 106027 3432473
11 12 JAY-Z + ALICIA KEYS EMPIRE STATE OF MIND 86096 -2 87896 660244
13 13 DRAKE, KANYE WEST, LIL WAYNE & FOREVER 68561 -5 72125 486664
18 14 GUETTA*DAVID FEAT. AKON SEXY CHICK 63151 9 58127 459778
16 15 BIEBER*JUSTIN ONE TIME 60397 1 60011 676578
20 16 BEYONCE SWEET DREAMS 58338 4 55999 597278
23 17 LADY ANTEBELLUM NEED YOU NOW 56734 6 53522 364404
22 18 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE COWBOY CASANOVA 56723 6 53687 286462
19 19 FRANTI*MICHAEL & SPEARHEAD SAY HEY (I LOVE YOU) 55082 -5 58121 805917
21 20 SWIFT*TAYLOR YOU BELONG WITH ME 52495 -2 53814 2167387

For what that’s worth in making predictions.

hi every1!!!! sorry I’ve been m.i.a. the last two days,I think i got H1N1.I’m still sick but I had to see what happend while I was gone.good to know nothing “epic” happend!!!!

There is only the popularity bar leaks. I’m speaking from what I can remember (although someone else probably has documented it elsewhere), the popularity bars showed that for example David Cook’s ‘Billie Jean’  hit number 1, and was in top 20 for 3 weeks (two of his other songs also went to number 1, as well as David Archuleta’s ‘Imagine’ ). The leaked one for Season 8 however showed that all of Idols that season were in comparitively (and significantly) lower positions.

I think we were fortunate to get a weekly snapshop during Season 7. Cook was hugely popular however so I am not surprised if he holds the crown for AI season downloads. With Season 8 we just got one snapshop and so who knows how high “MAD WORLD” (Adam’s most popular song) got when it was first released.

The gifting stuff and the bulk buying is minuscule. In fact the gifting probably only amounts to 100′s of copies. The bulk buying I am not sure about. I know that if you look at the numbers and how the singles sold week to week Light On sold like other songs do. Bulk buying was not a factor.

http://www.scribd.com/full/7827197?access_key=key-7ts10q778qssiqi3e0x

Alaadam, if your friends can’t find a copy of Details, have them check out Ebay – they were selling them at a profit days before they became available on the stands, in my case the three copies were all that actually came into Borders – to the store’s surprise ~ trying not to look at placements too much, though I keep checking out Amazon’s list. Downloaded from itunes, and I say, just keep playing that song, and please let the FYE single come out soon, or else we will all be sounding a little snarky & slap happy.

Sue’s at a bat mitzvah (:

There are research firms that offer regular research reports that provide information about celebrities ‘” how famous they are (awareness), how much people like them, how much people trust them, etc. These reports are one tool used to decide who to use for product endorsements and in TV commercials. The most famous of these is the Q Score. Here is a link to the Q Score Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q_Score

Oooh okay thank you Q3 that makes more sense

In answer to the question about current rankings, here they are:

iTunes – Top Songs (US)
20. Already Gone – Kelly Clarkson
23. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
33. Time for Miracles – Adam Lambert
137. LLWD – Kris Allen

AmazonMP3 – Top 100
16. Time for Miracles – Adam Lambert
25. Already Gone – Kelly Clarkson
30. Cowboy Casanova

Amazon Albums (US)
5. For Your Entertainment – Adam Lambert
15. Play On – Carrie Underwood
25. Christmas from the Heart – David Archuleta
88. Kris Allen (album) – Kris Allen
107. Just Like You – Alison Iraheta
313. 2012 Soundtrack

The gifting stuff and the bulk buying is minuscule. In fact the gifting probably only amounts to 100′s of copies. The bulk buying I am not sure about. I know that if you look at the numbers and how the singles sold week to week Light On sold like other songs do. Bulk buying was not a factor.

Where did you get the numbers for gifting etc., I didn’t see it on the chart? Who knows if it is a big deal or not. I’m only discussing it because of the (urban legend?) that Clay fans where shopping until they dropped and it affected the numbers. I am new to the AI world and so I wondering if this has affected numbers in later seasons.

Again, let me stress, I was only discussing it in relation to the first few days of sales. All bets are off after that.

What’s the deal with Jordin Sparks maybe appearing on SNL? Where is this info coming from? .

Q3 – the Amazon listing of #5 for FYE is in the ALL music category listing, FYE is #1 in Rock ~ so by passing the Christmas albums that are going at this time and other categories, Adam is at #1 ~ I prefer to look at it that way ~

LaurelG: Actually, I wouldn’t disagree that DC’s introduction of LO was not that dissimilar to Adam’s. David debuted his single on AOL on 9/23/08 and it was released to iTunes on 9/30. Archie on the other hand premiered his single on Z-100 and had almost 2 weeks of airplay prior to his iTunes debut.

As far as spins, I think it’s a different story. According to posts in the archives, Archie had an AI of 7.669m prior to the release of Crush whereas David C.’s AI was more like 1.675m.

Thanks. That’s my impression from reading posters weeks ago when Kris single released that songs usually get 1-2 weeks radio air exposure before they go on sales. So it surprised me when Kirsten said LO and Crush had the same limited pre-sales promotion as TFM (and that will only make LLWD looks worse).

(Kirsten)
David Cook got some sort of internet premier. David Archuletta got some promo from one radio station in one city. Adam premiered his song on the most watched entertainment show in the world. Neither David got a video until weeks later.

So LO internet premier was AOL debut and Crush promo is from Z100 in NYC? Are these promotions both considered as great opportunity to debut songs? At least that’s my impression from people being excited when LLWD debut on Z100. Don’t know why you downplayed them to “some sort of internet premier” and “one radio station in one city”.

and on which “most watched entertainment show” did Adam premier TFM?

Prices for the single copies of Details online are going up rapidly — because there aren’t enough newstand copies to meet demand.

And the online single mag sites are wiped out:

http://www.mymagstore.com/23492/237517/General/Details.html — out of stock in less than 1 hour!

still no decision on Adam’s single. Aimee tweets:

Got the new Details magazine with AL it feels like torture waiting to know- still nothing………..

Chicagolaw
October 24, 2009 at 4:28 pm

Doesn’t a movie song usually see it’s big commercial success after the movie has been released? I mean My Heart Will Go On wasn’t a hit 2 weeks before the movie came out. I don’t know if TFM will be a big hit, but it seems a little early to be calling it dead when 2012 isn’t even in theaters yet.

That is true. Armageddon opened on July 1st and the song “I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing” was released on Sept 5th, 1998.

Titanic opened on 12/19/97 and “My Heart Will Go On” was released worldwide in Jan and Feb 1998 (exception was Australia and Germany on 12/8/97).

If anyone wants a copy of Details let me know and I’ll check Borders on Monday.

Heh Q3…where the hell is Daughtry…don’t they have an album out and 2 singles? Lets go find them!

Maybe Adam’s fans are confused and buying multiple copies of magazines instead of the downloads. Some of them need a lesson in How to Support Your Idol 101. He only makes $ from the song not the magazine.

Did toml go right to the top and stay there?

ToML sold over 236k in its first 4 days of sales. But that came on the heels of an emotional Cook winning moment and performance, ending the finale showing his younger brother tearfully mouthing the words: “That’s my brother!” And ToML had its own fits and starts, boosted here and there by its unexpected use in network coverage of Olympic opening ceremony, winning moments and Oprah’s post-Olympic celebration show. Really, nothing should be compared to the performance of that particular song, imo.

I guess I’m the only person here who still believes we’ll get another single and that it will be “Lie.” … Yeah, I thought so.

As for the oft cited “equivalence” between S7 and S8 based on similar tour stats, extrapolating that singles and album sales should be the same too…. I get the inclination for the conclusion. Maybe it’s fair. I just believe there are way too many variables in play to make any fair comparison, launch expectations, or draw favorable or unfavorable conclusions about the popularity of S8′s top finishers.

That said, maybe it will prove true that Adam is a visual attraction as much as (or more than?) an auditory one. And maybe he’ll prove more popular by video, media appearance and live performances than will translate into record sales. It’s certainly possible.

I have no idea what’s going on with Kris’ sales. They are, to me, startling. His radio play is impressive. I hope sales pick up for him. I can’t help thinking back on Kelly’s most recent effort and sales for the singles other than the lead one. She’s seen really good radio play, but sales have still lagged (although I believe her latest single is doing very well right now?)

Anywho, going back to pick up reading where I left off before this loosely associated ramble. Sorry if I got off track or repetitive…

I made this offer before and will make it again. If anyone is stuck w/o a copy of Details who really wants one, I can get them here in Manhattan.

Q3 How do you know the mag sold out in only one hour? I didn’t see that in the link. Still so excited that the mag is doing well. That part of Adam, the image, is doing VERY WELL according to plan and promotion!

Just a thought for those looking for Details. I live in a rather rural area and went to Walgreens today. There were seven Details on the racks. You might want to check in outlying areas for a copy. Sometimes living in the boonies is a good thing. I also had no problem getting my copy of RS.

I have no hard numbers for the gifting stuff but the one gifting thread that I saw only amounted to around 100 or so copies of a song. I have no knowledge about what Clay fans did or did not do. All I am trying to say is bulk buying is not the reason one song does better than another or worse. I do not believe it is much of a factor.

I’ve skimmed this thread and don’t think this has been posted here regarding David Cook’s involvement with EM:HE and a charity auction. Here are a couple of tweets.

#HallmarkHomes
@thedavidcook and Xzibit are now running the auction at Grissom Air Force Base!

#HallmarkHomes
A signed guitar from @thedavidcook went for $1,150 at the auction!

jpfan
October 24, 2009 at 3:40 pm
S8 is just very odd. The tour did as well as S7 but the first week sales for the single are significantly down from what either of the David’s did.
It’s possible for LLWD and TfM just haven’t connected with the fans. At least Adam has another shot with the ‘real’  first single.

I actually think there is a chance that Kris has another shot as well. Some people are thrown off by Kris’ first single being a cover (even though it was a b-side cover of a song released in Germany that most of us had never heard).

I think once Kris releases an original song that he has writing credit on (because we like to think of him as a singer/songwriter/instrumentalist) people will be giving his music a second chance and hopefully buying it. I bought LLWD but I am still hoping for something I like more.

I am still fairly new at posting here, mostly a hopelessly devoted lurker!

I feel that once the video, of TFM is scene in the movie theater’s, is when all the action will happen. A Huge promotion is there, and people will be captivated.
It’s like everything, you have to see it first, and then you act. The radio’s will be a buzz, because the people will have seen it, on the big screen. Please consider the after Thansgiving buying fenzy, as well.

I know this is a large popular blog, but the everyday fan, is not that devoted, to follow one. Also, they don’t due polls, or even watch the Tube. If Adam has fans, that don’t even watch Idol, that is saying a lot! That may be a first?? They will buy his music, but exactly when is questionable.
Also, the fact that TFM’s, is now going to be on his album is of high interest. This is because of the Oscar, and Grammy potential for,”The Best Song,” in a movie. It’s a huge deal really, that they did this. They already know!

I have no knowledge about what Clay fans did or did not do. All I am trying to say is bulk buying is not the reason one song does better than another or worse. I do not believe it is much of a factor.

I totally agree with this.

I have no hard numbers for the gifting stuff but the one gifting thread that I saw only amounted to around 100 or so copies of a song. I have no knowledge about what Clay fans did or did not do. All I am trying to say is bulk buying is not the reason one song does better than another or worse. I do not believe it is much of a factor

I remember reading on a thread here about the Clay fans buying multiple copies and I couldn’t believe the numbers. Someone with a historical view on AI can probably give us more insight.

I think Adam’s single is doing well, gifting or not. I am surprised Kris’s single isn’t doing better. But as someone said, maybe the cover controversy is dragging his numbers down? I’m sure his second single will do much better.

Since Kris is down to the 130′s on itunes, do peeps speculate he will sell less than the 10,000 he sold last week? have the radio adds and promos not affected the sales at all?

It seems like the main radio station where I live only plays Jordin Sparks and Daughtry. I HAVE heard Pink once though. (I only really listen to the radio when it’s playing in stores though).
ETA: TFM is #14 on Canadian itunes

Tess
October 24, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Heh Q3′ ¦where the hell is Daughtry’ ¦don’t they have an album out and 2 singles? Lets go find them!

Daughtry numbers:

iTunes (US) Top Songs
139. No Surprise
948. What About Now

iTunes (US) Albums
96. Leave This Town (bonus tracks edition)

Amazon Albums (US)
112. Leave This Town

ROFLMAO…I’m…I’m speechless!

http://twitpic.com/kms8i

I am surprised Kris’s single isn’t doing better. But as someone said, maybe the cover controversy is dragging his numbers down?

What cover controversy?

Kris’s fan base has to be more than tiny, he did win after all, and did pretty well with earlier iTunes releases.

I’m finding a lot of stuff being posted here today to be confusing.

I was under the impression that Kris’s LLWD isn’t really doing that great — 63,000 total sold with the last numbers we had, and that was in 3 1/2 weeks, or something like that? I didn’t realize that those numbers were considered to be doing pretty well. LLWD is now #137 on ITunes, and #247 on Amazon. Hey, that’s a lot better than a lot of songs ever do, so maybe that is doing well. And, with upcoming PR events, we could see those numbers going back up.

I also am confused by comments on the sales numbers for TfM, since I thought that the first set of numbers would be coming out this coming week. So far, AFAIK, we just know that it peaked at #9 on ITunes and #1 on Amazon, and is now at #33 on ITunes, and #16 on Amazon. We’ll find out what kind of sales numbers that represents on Wednesday, right?

And, I’m even more confused by Allison’s single being available for a day, (or less? How long was it?), and then being pulled, and not reappearing again. What’s up with that? Glad I got to buy it during that short window of time, though, since I enjoy it. No sales numbers yet for Allison, since the single is no longer available. (Wut????)

The only other measure that I now of that might indicate something — but I suspect doesn’t really tell us much — is the preorders on Amazon for the albums.

Right now, those numbers are:
Adam – #5, and 84% of S8 preorders
Kris – #87, and 10% of S8 preorders
Allison – #117, and 6% of S8 preorders

I’m worrying about Allison, but I guess the gap between 6% for the 4th place finisher, and 10% for the winner isn’t a huge gap. But I still don’t understand why they pulled her single.

What cover controversy?

You know, yada yada, his first cover is a cover of a Scripts song….and Ryan Seacrest made sure everyone knew it. I like the song, as it seems most people do, but some are suggesting that people won’t to hear something new from Kris and not this cover.

Too bad he has a small fan base. He should have sold out in 20 minutes. He’s a failure for sure.

Or, his fanbase is more interested in Adam, the personality, nascent celebrity, than in actually buying his music.

But no one is suggesting that he’s a failure, musically, here. I think some are suprised that his highly anticipated and heavily promoted single is not in the top 20 of iTunes given how much his fans have been chomping at the bit to purchase ‘new’ Adam music. Regardless, I’m sure he’ll have more dowloads than Kris did in his first full week of sales — and I wouldn’t be suprised if he sold more than Kris’s YTD LLWD downloads, too.

eta: FolkFan, thanks for last week’s downloads. So maybe Adam will sell about 50K for this week?

and Ryan Seacrest made sure everyone knew it.

as well as everyone else that interviewed him.

Just to be fair to Jordin fans — here are her iTunes chart #’s

iTunes Top Songs (US)

49. Battlefield – Jordin Sparks
201. S.O.S. (Let the Music Play) – Jordin Sparks

Tess
October 24, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Heh Q3′ ¦where the hell is Daughtry’ ¦don’t they have an album out and 2 singles? Lets go find them!

Sales figures (from Idol Chatter):

Daughtry, No Surprise (14,000, -13 percent, 852,000)

Daughtry, Leave This Town (11,000, -6 percent, 698,000, 127,000 digital total)

‘But I believe there is a good change that Adam may sell more albums that Archie did ‘” even in this economy.’ 

They better hope so. They’ve spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting him, almost to the point of being annoying. Premiering a single on the AMA’s on top of everything else they’ve given to him ‘“ if it doesn’t work for him there are really no excuses. To me it seems they are trying mostly to sell his image. We’ll see how well people take to that.

He’ll probably have to sell double of what Archie did to just repay what’s already been spent. No idea what he’ll have to sell to actually make money, but I’d be willing to bet it’s going to be a hefty number.

The economy was pretty stinky last year when season 7 released and JIVE is not known for doing great promo, so I would expect with all of the promo Adam has gotten from his label, as well as the boat load of promo he has gotten from the media, that he will do record numbers. It will be interesting to see.

I think you can still go back and look at the popularity bars week to week for season 7 over at Rickey’s. I’m pretty sure he still has all that.

What’s the deal with Jordin Sparks maybe appearing on SNL? Where is this info coming from?

MJ- this is the board and the thread I read it
http://saturday-night-live.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1524

So LO internet premier was AOL debut and Crush promo is from Z100 in NYC? Are these promotions both considered as great opportunity to debut songs? At least that’s my impression from people being excited when LLWD debut on Z100. Don’t know why you downplayed them to ‘some sort of internet premier’  and ‘one radio station in one city’ .

Well back when Crush got premiered on Z100 it played a little differently. Lots of stations latched on to it and immediately added it giving Archie some very strong airplay very quickly. I think a lot of us thought the same would happen with Kris. At the time a premiere on AOL seemed much less important. I’d be curious to know how many people did hear LLWD when it premiered that morning. LO got over a million listens in a day at AOL, this was boasted about in an eventual RCA press release.

As for Adam’s promotion and the producers wanting to work with him. High end producers are still going to want to be paid even if they love Adam to death and think hes the most amazing singer ever and ever. The amount of big name writers and producers he’s getting a lot of money is going to be expected to be recouped. As I said in the Mediabase thread the other day when predictions were being discussed, just a point of comparison in terms of sales numbers going along with iTunes ranking. Carrie’s Cowboy Casanova reached the Top 10 fast and within a day got as high as #2 and stayed pretty high through the weekend, she ended up selling like 110,000 for the week.

Totally agree with JazzRocks and 8Jean8. TFM isn’t even Adam’s first single and it charted at #9. I don’t even think it was released to radio! Honestly, just give it a couple weeks because with the release of This is It and 2012, buzz about the song will explode, which’ll make TFM chart even higher. Smart move by RCA for including it on his album.
My only complaint is not releasing Adam’s single, though. I mean, already there are many people who think TFM is Adam’s single, and it’s causing confusion (not a good thing).
Anyway, yeah, don’t start comparisons until Adam’s single is released (soon, hopefully).

Right now, those numbers are:
Adam ‘“ #5, and 84% of S8 preorders
Kris ‘“ #87, and 10% of S8 preorders
Allison ‘“ #117, and 6% of S8 preorders

The distribution of the preorder sales has looked pretty much like that for the past 3 weeks.

But no on is suggesting that he’s a failure, musically, here. I think some are suprised that his highly anticipated and heavily promoted single is not in the top 20 of iTunes given how much his fans have been chomping at the bit to purchase ‘new’ Adam music

I didn’t think TMF had been heavily promoted yet. I believe that starts when the Michael Jackson movie and 2012 hit theaters next month. As far as I know, it hasn’t been released to radios yet?

Why do people think that Time for Miracles is eligible for an Oscar? Only songs that are written specifically for and about a movie are Oscar-eligible. [There are other eligibility rules, but that's the only one that is important here.] As I understand it, Time for Miracles was inspired by the lives of the two songwriters, one of whom was battling cancer and died in July 2008. So, I was under the impression that it was not written for 2012 and, so, would not be eligible for an Oscar.

Yinyang I’m with you – I don’t know what’s considered good bad or whatever anymore.

Kris’s fan base has to be more than tiny, he did win after all, and did pretty well with earlier iTunes releases.

I’m finding a lot of stuff being posted here today to be confusing.

That was my quote, sorry if unclear. As far as ‘earlier iTunes releases,’ I was going back to the spring/early summer. I thought most reports claimed then that although he was slipping through the show without attracting huge attention, Kris was doing pretty well with his iTunes sales while the show was airing. He also seemed to have a respectable showing around and just after the time of the finale when NoBo and various other songs were charting for both Kris and Adam.

As far as I’ve seen, it’s only recently with LLWD that Kris’s sales seem to be declared well below expectations.

JPFan

What “accounts” are you going by? There’s no evidence to show Kris’ album won’t sell well its first week. Likewise, there’s no evidence that it will sell well. Let’s wait until it comes out, ok?

Can someone refresh my memory…Didn’t No Boundaries hit #1 on the iTunes chart (very briefly)?

I think some are suprised that his highly anticipated and heavily promoted single is not in the top 20 of iTunes given how much his fans have been chomping at the bit to purchase ‘new’ Adam music.

More confusion on my part. I thought that we didn’t even know the name of Adam’s single yet? How come ITunes and Amazon aren’t selling it if it’s out and heavily promoted?? I’m so confused….

I thought that the rumor was that we might hear the name of the single this coming week? Did I fall asleep and miss a week or so somewhere, and the first single from FYE is out and on the radio? I don’t think so, but if someone is expecting it to be in the top 20 already, I feel like I missed it.

FolkFan
October 24, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Why do people think that Time for Miracles is eligible for an Oscar? Only songs that are written specifically for and about a movie are Oscar-eligible. [There are other eligibility rules, but that's the only one that is important here.] As I understand it, Time for Miracles was inspired by the lives of the two songwriters, one of whom was battling cancer and died in July 2008. So, I was under the impression that it was not written for 2012 and, so, would not be eligible for an Oscar.

I can’t speak for what inspired the writers to write the song they wrote but in the “Behind the Scenes” link someone posted earlier on this thread Adam specifically says the song was written for the movie which would make it eligible for an Oscar.

“Maybe Adam’s fans are confused and buying multiple copies of magazines instead of the downloads. Some of them need a lesson in How to Support Your Idol 101. He only makes $ from the song not the magazine. ”

Doesn’t the artist get paid too with their exposure on Magazine covers? I know you that artist gets paid for any exposure they do by way of talent fee and token fee. Does america operate differently from the rest of the world? Given my limited knowledge of the media industry, they do pay for cover stories. They even bid for it, especially if the talent is hot. There is still money to be gained but maybe nothing compare to album sale or better yet product endorsements and concerts.

The good thing about all these Adam magazine exposures is that more and more people outside of AI gets to know him. Only time can tell how successful Adam can be. That’s why i am hanging on tight for the ride.

As for Adam’s promotion and the producers wanting to work with him. High end producers are still going to want to be paid even if they love Adam to death and think hes the most amazing singer ever and ever. The amount of big name writers and producers he’s getting a lot of money is going to be expected to be recouped.

We have no idea what deals have been made for Adam’s album — but usually most of the money earned by producers and writers is from royalties on record sales and some other uses — TV Commercials, TV Shows, etc. There are almost an infinite number of ways to structure these contracts.

Perhaps some 19 expects know what 19′s typical practice is.

That is true. Armageddon opened on July 1st and the song ‘I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing’  was released on Sept 5th, 1998.

Titanic opened on 12/19/97 and ‘My Heart Will Go On’  was released worldwide in Jan and Feb 1998 (exception was Australia and Germany on 12/8/97).

Interesting. So in those cases the movie spurred the sale of and was essentially advertising for the single. Whereas this time they’re using the single to advertise the movie. Is this a first (to have an artist and song be used for promotional purposes) for a big budget movie? If so, I’m sure everyone is watching to see how it turns out as far as movie and song sales. Is there an actual way to study the phenomena? I know when I’ve gone see a movie on nights that they’ve given away free passes, they always have someone outside of the theatre asking how we liked the movie afterwords. Makes me wonder if they’re going to ask people who go to 2012 what influenced their decision to attend.

Girlygirl, even though I can’t find anything to back it up I am pretty sure you are right that NoBo hit number 1. That was at a time when I was still mad that Kris had won and so I remember being very irritated at the whole situation. I actually bought Adam’s NoBo in retaliation, LOL.

SashaB
October 24, 2009 at 5:01 pm

eta: FolkFan, thanks for last week’s downloads. So maybe Adam will sell about 50K for this week?

That’s my current guesstimate based on last week’s numbers. But, it’s just a guesstimate.

I really don’t think people were “disappointed” with Kris single being a cover and therefore didn’t buy it. I don’t think ayone that likes him cares about that, but I might be wrong.

Kris has a suprisingly small fan base though and it seems like all expectations have been tranferred to Adam, which might seem unfair since the guy didn’t win. But the competition is over and new rules apply… still S8 is strange indeed.

I hope Adam releases a kiss ass single.

“I’m more interested in comparing LLWD to any winner’s first single.”

Me too. Who has the stats for this?

Q3-A couple of days ago, you said something about surprising numbers and maybe Black Swain for Adam. I think you said something about re-interviewing to be sure. Were you talking about the Q numbers? Can you understand what I’m talking about? Is this something you can discuss?

jms—I don’t think there is any “phenomena.” In almost every occurence I can recall, soundtrack success evolves from the movie. Has a movie song ever been a hit before the movie is released? Can anyone come up with anything? That is just backwards. In this case, because Adam has a fanbase waiting for just about anything, they chose to release early and will use any of this base they can to generate additional interest in the movie.

The only reason I would care about sales is to make sure the artist I like gets to keep making music. I’m guessing Kradison will be fine when it comes to that. I don’t need any validation that my fave sold more than someone else. I hope they all get to continue their dreams. I’ll buy the music I like and not the music I don’t. But that’s just me. *shrugs*

Yes, there is always a lot of confusion about the Idols and their standing in the Idol hierarchy, and EVERYONE, fans and non-fans, are fast on the trigger to gather relevant data and extrapolate their theories, pro or con, from this data. And someone that likes an Idol and someone that doesn’t often use the exact same data but put a different spin on it.

I have said, many times, that as much as we discuss the idols and compare and contrast we will never have a definitive correlation on how they stand in the rankings. Until AI is over and is done and buried and it’s ten years beyond that then we may be able to come up with some basis to measure how those who started on Idol actually did with their careers. But, since I am sure I will also be dead and gone by then I’m really not going to worry about “rankings” that much.

What “hurts” personally most everyone here (and I mean everyone) is that no matter how obvious something seems to me and you we are never allowed to bask in the glory of the moment…there is, and rightfully so, someone else with a differing point of view who will burst your bubble in a matter of seconds. That is what competition is all about…and it’s never for the faint hearted or thin skinned.

But no one is suggesting that he’s a failure, musically, here. I think some are suprised that his highly anticipated and heavily promoted single is not in the top 20 of iTunes given how much his fans have been chomping at the bit to purchase ‘new’ Adam music.

Heavily promoted? All right then… Wait for TII, the release of the movie, and then you can say it from TFM. Right now, the song is in the exact same situation than LLWD in the first week, depending on the fanbase, which in this case is not 100% on board since its not his album single. On Wednesday we will see how it went.

I am surprised that the song did so well, not that it fell from top 20.

It might be just me, but I was actually surprised to see TFM entering the iTunes Top 10, I never expected anything big from it before the movie is released or even before the video is supposedly shown before This Is It.

I’m saying supposedly because even if it has been confirmed, I think we might see a different cut from the video, a more trailer-ish one, the one we’ve seen doesn’t even feature John Cusack.

And I was more surprised to see the song charting in Mexico, it is currently #93 on the overall iTunes chart. With zero promotion, and believe me, I know as a fact that Mexico is not really invested in American Idol (not even on the LA version). Besides my mom and me, I don’t know anyone else who watches it (well, I might have seen a couple of Mexican fans around fan sites, but I don’t know them).

What’s the promotion that people is talking about? Is the video being shown on TV station or the single even entering the radio officially? Yes there is a banner for it on the music section of US iTunes, but that’s about it.

Let’s see how things go after the trailer, Oprah, the AMAs and the release of the glam single. If Adam doesn’t hit good numbers after that, I’ll be the first one to admit that the numbers are disappointing.

Right now? It is still too early, for both Kris and Adam, IMHO.

I found two copies of Details at our local 7/11. They only carry a few magazines, but had that one. I read about someone finding it at their local 7/11 too, so its worth a try in your area.

Question: Since the GMA appearances for Kris and Adam were announced a while ago, is there any current confirmation that these appearances are still scheduled? I couldn’t find anything on ABC’s website. Thanks.

Kris has a suprisingly small fan base though and it seems like all expectations have been tranferred to Adam, which might seem unfair since the guy didn’t win. But the competition is over and new rules apply’ ¦ still S8 is strange indeed.

Not my expectations. I still fully expect that Kris should and will do better than Adam commercially. The same factors that contributed to Adam’s loss on American Idol still exist. He is still OTT, his voice is still the same, he is still gay and now instead of being pimped by TPTB, he’s being pimped by the media, which obviously, by reading this thread has made people angry just like it did during the show. Yes, Hollywood and the media may love him, but how many times did we hear after the finale that it’s not those factions that determine success, it’s the rest of America that decides who it wants. That was used to explain Kris’s supposed landslide victory over and over. Artistically, for me it’s a totally different story. But we’re not measuring quality here, we’re measuring quantity.

Not gonna lie, only on AI blogs does going to #8 on Itunes and #1 on Amazon with a side-deal movie song equate to failure. At the same time, another single has decreasing sales percentages of 43% the second week and 26% the third week while increasing radio and audience exposure and peaks in the 20s for a couple of hours and remains in the 100′s for the majority of the time since then equates to a slow but steady sign of success.

FolkFan

October 24, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Why do people think that Time for Miracles is eligible for an Oscar? Only songs that are written specifically for and about a movie are Oscar-eligible. [There are other eligibility rules, but that's the only one that is important here.] As I understand it, Time for Miracles was inspired by the lives of the two songwriters, one of whom was battling cancer and died in July 2008. So, I was under the impression that it was not written for 2012 and, so, would not be eligible for an Oscar.

Actually, as far as I can tell the song was written for TfMs — 2012 script was finished before Feb 2008. TfM was completed in June 2008. It was never used for anything else or record or performed before 2012, it was recorded specifically for the film and the song lyrics relate specifically to the movie. The backstory is interesting, by it appears that it was commissioned specifically for the movie.

The intent of the rule you referenced was to exclude a song that was previously a huge hit from being added to a movie and then winning the Oscar. And TfM is on all the Oscar prediction lists that have been released so far that I have found.

I cannot image the AMPAS would not allow this song to be nominated.

From Wiki: The original requirement was only that the nominated song appear in a motion picture during the previous year. This rule was changed after the 1941 Academy Awards, when “The Last Time I Saw Paris”, from the film Lady Be Good, with music by Jerome Kern and lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein II, won. Kern was upset that his song won because it had been published and recorded before it was used in the movie. The song was actually written in 1940, after the Germans occupied Paris at the start of World War II. It was recorded by Kate Smith and peaked at number 8 on the best seller list before it was used in the film Lady Be Good. Kern got the Academy to change the rule so that only songs that are “original and written specifically for the film” are eligible to win.

Songs that were published prior to a film’s production having nothing to do with the film, such as “Unchained Melody” in the 1990 film Ghost and “I Will Always Love You” in the 1992 film The Bodyguard, cannot qualify (although “Unchained Melody” was nominated when first released for the 1955 film Unchained). In addition, songs that rely on sampled or reworked material, such as “Gangsta’s Paradise” in the 1995 film Dangerous Minds, are also ineligible.

There was a debate as to whether or not Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, who were awarded the Oscar in 2008 for “Falling Slowly”, were in fact eligible. “Falling Slowly” has been released on two other albums ‘” The Swell Season, Hansard’s solo debut, and The Cost, by Hansard’s band The Frames. The Swell Season was released in August 2006, and The Cost in February 2007, before the release of Once. However, the AMPAS music committee determined that, in the course of the film’s protracted production, the composers had “played the song in some venues that were deemed inconsequential enough to not change the song’s eligibility”. The same issue arose two years earlier with “In the Deep” from Crash, which appeared on Kathleen “Bird” York’s 2003 album The Velvet Hour after being written for Crash, but before the film was released.

Kris’s votes as the winner would have been a mix of his committed fans from the season, and a lot of casual fans who voted for him. I wonder if another possibility with his lower sales now vs. earlier on could be that the tour didn’t help Kris much to hold the interest of all those who voted for him.

Kris got his share of good tour reviews and a lot of people enjoyed what he did, but many others found him to be too low-key and overshadowed by the “bigger” voices and more high-energy singers like Adam, Danny, Allison and often Matt. The media almost always paid more attention to Adam than Kris, and in some cases he got some pretty harsh reviews–not saying either of those were fair, but that is how it went.

For any casual AI fans who saw those reviews or weren’t blown away by him on the tour, it may have weakened their zeal to follow what Kris has been doing since the show, or to run out and buy Kris’s single.

Kris has a suprisingly small fan base though

I think this is true, I think a large segment of those who voted for him did it in response to his competitors and that is the reason he is seeing such poor sales. I really don’t think LLWD is that bad of a song, and it might sell better as more people are exposed to it, but I do think this signifies a lack of fan interest coming off the show. Adam’s numbers on TFM are good, and are an indication that he does have a larger fan base at this moment. His numbers are not amazing though, and they certainly don’t stand up to the buying power of fan bases from the past. This makes me wonder about S8. Is there not going to be a huge star from this season? My fear is that the sleeping giant fanbase is Dannys, and he will be the surprise success when all is said and done.

I don’t know how the comparison between S7 and S8 fanbase sizes began, even less why Adam is representing S8. Did we come to conclusion that Kris has large or small fanbase so that it’s not arguable anymore?

I mean, already there are many people who think TFM is Adam’s single, and it’s causing confusion (not a good thing).

shrug. I don’t think it matters whether people think it is his single or not. The only people watching closely are AI fans and industry peeps. Everyone else will either like it when they hear it and then buy it. Or not like it and not buy it. While it was played once on TV, I doubt that would be enough to get many people to buy, but it will make them more aware of the movie. I’m assuming it was the video they played with the accompanying talk about 2012. Being in the This Is It trailer may fuel more sales, but I think it’s more likely to spur sales for the 2012 movie. If lots people love the 2012 movie, then I would expect to see sales of TfM go up again.

And technically, since it is going to be on his album, it is his first single. It’s just that 19/RCA is go to promote a different song from the album to advertise and showcase the album. Hopefully soon. But like I said earlier, I don’t think they’ll release the next single until after 2012 opens.

I guess I am an Adam fan but I like discussing these things because I want a realistic estimate of how big his current fan base is and what success I can expect him to have. Of course I think he is really great at what he does but other might not think so.

Also, any battle lost or won on this blog won’t affect his success in the least.

He is still OTT, his voice is still the same, he is still gay and now instead of being pimped by TPTB, he’s being pimped by the media, which obviously, by reading this thread has made people angry just like it did during the show.

Have no idea who will be more “successful” not do I particularly care. I don’t think the show has anything to do with the music business. Multiple votes doesn’t equal multiple sales. History shows the “winner” doesn’t always win in sales. Or even come in second.

What does the general public want? It depends on the music and what’s hot right now.

And Adam being gay? I’m not sure that matters to most people.

Why do people think that Time for Miracles is eligible for an Oscar? Only songs that are written specifically for and about a movie are Oscar-eligible.

I would be careful before predicting something as big as this, but it’s actually eligible. The source of inspiration does not matter, it just matters that the song is released for the movie.

I think people expecting a big bounce in sales from TII are going to be disappointed. I just don’t think the song is compelling enough for someone to hear it once and then decide they need to go out and purchase it. Also, I think the audience for TII is not the ideal demographics for a lite rock power ballad.

pj
October 24, 2009 at 5:36 pm

And Adam being gay? I’m not sure that matters to most people.

If it didn’t matter there wouldn’t have been the speculation there was during the season, VFTW wouldn’t have had a field day, EW wouldn’t have done a cover story and Bill O’Reilly wouldn’t have dedicated a segment to the topic TWICE during the season. There also wouldn’t have been all the clamoring for information after the end of the season and you wouldn’t see homophobic and degrading comments after every online story on EW, EOnline and other web sites. I’m not saying it’s the reason Adam lost, I don’t believe it is. But it’s naive to think that no one cares.

Question: Since the GMA appearances for Kris and Adam were announced a while ago, is there any current confirmation that these appearances are still scheduled? I couldn’t find anything on ABC’s website. Thanks

Someone on AO posted that they had spoken via phone with GMA, and they were told that the appearance of Adam was still on. The schedule is down on the GMA site, but this person was told not to worry, and the schedule would be reposted to the site soon. I know this is vague, but the poster at AO seemed confident that Adam at least was still performing.

If it didn’t matter there wouldn’t have been the speculation there was during the season, VFTW wouldn’t have had a field day, EW wouldn’t have done a cover story and Bill O’Reilly wouldn’t have dedicated a segment to the topic TWICE during the season. There also wouldn’t have been all the clamoring for information after the end of the season and you wouldn’t see homophobic and degrading comments after every online story on EW, EOnline and other web sites. I’m not saying it’s the reason Adam lost, I don’t believe it is. But it’s naive to think that no one cares.

It matters to the media. Does it matter in terms of sales? Not really. How many people do you think there are in America that are either gay or gay-friendly? My guess is enough to make Adam sell multi-plat if the music is good. You can vote for the other guy on the show if you’re homophobic, but you can’t cancel someone else’s purchase.

ETA: Not saying or predicting Adam’s sales. I’m saying he can’t cry gay if his music doesn’t sell that much. It’s possible. Very possible.

And Adam being gay? I’m not sure that matters to most people.

Let’s just hope there are enough people that don’t care.

I can tell you that here in Canada, people were deeply worried about their financial outlook (even though are banks were not very effected by the crisis). Perhaps the news was much rosier in the US in the fall of 2008. But from my perspective, things look to be improving this November with housing starts up and some other positive indicators.

I think the Davids released in a much scarier climate than the S8 Idols will (but there is still time for another financial crisis to hit the US banking system)

I am not sure which Canada you are living in, but in my Canada this is not the way it was/is. No one was worrying much where I am in the fall of 2008.

And then there is the news about Ontario’s debt that has been released in the last couple of days…..

October 24, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Question: Since the GMA appearances for Kris and Adam were announced a while ago, is there any current confirmation that these appearances are still scheduled? I couldn’t find anything on ABC’s website. Thanks

mama2dasha
Someone on AO posted that they had spoken via phone with GMA, and they were told that the appearance of Adam was still on. The schedule is down on the GMA site, but this person was told not to worry, and the schedule would be reposted to the site soon. I know this is vague, but the poster at AO seemed confident that Adam at least was still performing.

Thank you mama2dasha! I was starting to get worried!

In terms of trying to estimate the size of fanbase…personally, I think that only the most hardcore fan is going to buy something they don’t like. The more casual fans are more likely to pick and choose — they may buy the album, but not the single. Or they may only download a handful of songs off the album, rather than buy the whole thing.

Most people don’t have the money to throw away on stuff they don’t like.

Also, consider this. Kris has 113,600 followers on twitter; Adam has 214,624 followers on twitter.

If you use the estimated sales of LLWD (63,000 as of end of last reporting period) and TFM (50,000 according to some predictions on this board), then go off the idea that everyone who bought the single actually follows that person on twitter (which, I admit, is highly unlikely, but go with me on this for a second) – that would mean 55.5% of the people following Kris on twitter have bought LLWD, compared to just 23.3% of the people following Adam on twitter have bought TFM. Which would suggest that Kris has a higher % of hardcore fans on twitter than Adam does…

That’s not a very high percentage of Adam’s followers who have laid down $$$ to buy TFM. And, again, since this theory of mine (100% of twitter followers buy person’s music) is pretty much unlikely, that would mean that an even SMALLER percentage of the people following Adam have actually bought TFM.

Does that mean that most of the people following Adam on twitter aren’t hardcore fans? Didn’t like TFM? Are simply waiting to buy his true debut single and/or album? That they are interested in Adam the media darling but not in his music? Or does it mean that Adam has gained a lot of new fans who bought TFM after hearing it, but don’t follow him online?

I don’t claim to have the answer to any of this. Just a bunch of questions and a couple of rather lame theories. And of course, not all of Adam’s or Kris’ fans — not even the hardest of hardcore ones — necessarily follow them on twitter.

I’m just using this as one example of the supposed fanbase. And also going by my own personal spending policy — if I don’t like it (I don’t have to love it, but I do have to want to listen to it more than a few times) , I’m not buying it, even if that person is my favorite.

ETA: Not saying or predicting Adam’s sales. I’m saying he can’t cry gay if his music doesn’t sell that much. It’s possible. Very possible.

I don’t think that he would. I find Adam is very realistic in the fact that where he wants to go with his music may not appeal to everyone so if he does not have sales that are out of this world I think he would know it’s because some people just don’t dig his music. I really can’t see him crying poor little gay boy.

just a quick post to mention that Myspace has now apparently fixed the ratings “glitch” on the Tfm mv and it is now back to the 90pc it started with. Comments have also been re-enabled.

I really can’t see him crying poor little gay boy.

No, I can’t see that either. I meant fans, not Adam. My main point was that I don’t think Adam’s sexuality will hurt his sales at all, like someone implied. I think it might help, actually.

I think this is true, I think a large segment of those who voted for him did it in response to his competitors and that is the reason he is seeing such poor sales.

Or (and stay with me here because I know this is a controversial idea)the majority of Kris Allen’s votes had NOTHING TO DO WITH ADAM or any other contestant, and everything to do with the casual AI audience (which is the vast majority), the ones who watch and vote but usually don’t buy the music. They happened to like the little guy from Arkansas, it seems. But once the show was over they forgot about Kris, Danny, and probably even Adam.

I realize suggesting something happening in AI land might not have anything to do with Adam Lambert is crazy talk but I’ll risk it anyway. LOL

If you use the estimated sales of LLWD (63,000 as of end of last reporting period).

LLWD’s total sales? Or just from the first week?

I think they might help, actually.

I think that’s stretching it a bit but who knows?

I think once Kris releases an original song that he has writing credit on (because we like to think of him as a singer/songwriter/instrumentalist) people will be giving his music a second chance and hopefully buying it.

As a disgruntled Cook fan on this very point, I hate to warn you to temper your expectations. But then again, the labels have shown some ability to learn from mistakes, so there may be more of a likelihood that Kris will be permitted to release one or more of his own co-writes as singles. We can only hope…

And I agree with everything you’ve said so far, CindyM. You too pj. What can I say, I am a bundle of contradictions.

ETA: girlygirl, I understand that you’re just making a point, or possibly a non-point, but I think you might at least wait for actual comparable ##s — like say, 3 full weeks of TfM sales to compare to the 3 weeks of LLWD sales number we have today. Or go back and get LLWD first week number when we have TfM first week numbers…

ETA2: I agree Danny may prove to be the best seller of S8, given his choice of genre — if they accept him. That would be most unfortunate, imo, but good on him!

If you use the estimated sales of LLWD (63,000 as of end of last reporting period) and TFM (50,000 according to some predictions on this board), then go off the idea that everyone who bought the single follows actually follows that person on twitter (which, I admit, is highly unlikely, but go with me on this for a second) ‘“ that would mean 55.5% of the people following Kris on twitter have bought LLWD, compared to just 23.3% of the people following Adam on twitter have bought TFM. Which would suggest that Kris has a higher % of hardcore fans on twitter than Adam does’ ¦

But here’s where I get a little lost. LLWD has been out for what, 3-4 weeks? and sold 63,000. And someone is estimating that TfM may have sold 50,000…in five days? Regardless of who has a bigger online fanbase, doesn’t it mean TfM is on track to do far better than LLWD, just based on these numbers? I don’t know – I’m asking.

I think that’s stretching it a bit but who knows?

Perhaps. But he’s got something that separates him from the rest of the pack.

I just don’t care enough about sales. I like Adam, Allison and Kris. I hope they all do well.

Not that I wouldn’t laugh my ass off is Allison outsold them all. Heh.

lizziegs
October 24, 2009 at 5:50 pm

just a quick post to mention that Myspace has now apparently fixed the ratings ‘glitch’  on the Tfm mv and it is now back to the 90pc it started with. Comments have also been re-enabled.

Thanks lizziegs. That was disconcerting to me, that potentially some peeps would sit there and refresh the screen over and over to drive the rating down…sigh. Flawed system. Flawed humans.

I don’t think Kris has a sall fanbase. What I believe is that the itunes pass sales didn’t help him. Lots of people bought the itunes pass in the heat after the finale and were waiting for the download. Lots of these people didn’t buy because they feel they will get it on the album anyway when they didn’t get the single right away.
I believe Jive, knowing the amount of itunes pass sold, have a good idea of how much in total Kris would have sold in all if not for the itunes pass.
I’m saying this because Jive seems pretty okay from what I’ve seen so far and even by proudly putting the sales number on the all access add.
IMO, may be we are the ones getting too worked up. And also with the weird way they released the single, maybe they know what they are doing.

Or (and stay with me here because I know this is a controversial idea)the majority of Kris Allen’s votes had NOTHING TO DO WITH ADAM or any other contestant and everything to do with the casual AI audience (which is the vast majority), the ones who watch and vote but usually don’t buy the music, happening to like the little guy from Arkansas.

They voted for him because they liked him over Danny and Adam, so actually it does have to do with Adam (and Danny). What I was saying was that there were two very polarizing figures on the show, and Kris appealed to those who didn’t like the polarizing figures, and they voted for him because of that, but they obviously didn’t like him enough to go out and buy his music. Are you trying to disagree with that?

Perhaps. But he’s got something that separates him from the rest of the pack.

The backside is he can never get away with being mediocre or so-so. He has to do really well.

I think once Kris releases an original song that he has writing credit on (because we like to think of him as a singer/songwriter/instrumentalist) people will be giving his music a second chance and hopefully buying it.

Don’t count on it. Cook’s fans had the same thoughts last year. The reality is almost nobody outside of the hardcore fanbase cares who wrote the songs. People will be converted if they hear a song and like it. Or go to a concert and enjoy themselves. Writing credits don’t bowl people over. They just don’t.

“It matters to the media. Does it matter in terms of sales? Not really. ”

Media amplifies perceptions that appeals to need state (mindset) of people. It affects sale. If it doesn’t then nobody should be advertising.

Is there not going to be a huge star from this season? My fear is that the sleeping giant fanbase is Dannys, and he will be the surprise success when all is said and done.

I felt this was like a murder mystery with a surprise ending. hah!

I really can’t see him crying poor little gay boy.

No, I can’t see that either. I meant fans, not Adam. My main point was that I don’t think Adam’s sexuality will hurt his sales at are, like someone implied. I think they might help, actually.

Gotcha – with all the backing he’s been getting in the studio and the reception he’s gotten while on tour I would like to believe that his sexuality is not an issue where his music is concerned at this point, but who knows.

They voted for him because they liked him over Danny and Adam, so actually it does have to do with Adam (and Danny). What I was saying was that there were two very polarizing figures on the show, and Kris appealed to those who didn’t like the polarizing figures, and they voted for him because of that, but they obviously didn’t like him enough to go out and buy his music. Are you trying to disagree with that?

Yes actually because I really don’t think it was all that deep with the casual audience. The ones who identified polarizing competitors are the hardcore fans who paid attention to media reports and internet reports. The average Joe or Jane sitting in front of AI once or twice a week probably had no idea Danny was polarizing and either liked or disliked Adam but didn’t get terribly worked up about it. Outside the bubble it didn’t really matter. I doubt Kris garnered enough votes from frenzied anti-Adam or anti-Danny voters to make a difference (meaning they may have liked Kris Allen’s performances better week to week but didn’t put much more thought into it than that).

I felt this was like a murder mystery with a surprise ending. hah!

Now that would be disappointing for me. Not gonna lie.

The backside is he can never get away with being mediocre or so-so. He has to do really well.

He does and that’s just the way it is. He’s been built up and talked up for so long that he doesn’t get the luxury of people around him accepting middling results. It’s the “Adam Storm!” and for all the $ that is being spent on him anything less than a huge return will be seen as a disappointment. And that’s not unfair because I’m sure many former AIers would LOVE to have had all the advantages and free publicity he’s gotten. Adam has star quality and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be huge. If he’s not, the usual litany of excuses simply won’t apply.

If you use the estimated sales of LLWD (63,000 as of end of last reporting period).

LLWD’s total sales? Or just from the first week?

That is total sales since it was released. Last week he only sold 10,000.

It’s the ‘Adam Storm!’ 

That’s just a hopeful term invented and used by his fans only, I don’t think RCA has officially claimed or given any real indications that it is happening. BTW, personally, I can’t stand the term.

If you use the estimated sales of LLWD (63,000 as of end of last reporting period).

LLWD’s total sales? Or just from the first week? last week, he only sold 10,000.

That is total sales since it was released.

Thanks for answering! Then I would calculate daily sales to get a real ratio, and consider the fact that TFM was released internationally. I follow Adam on twitter, but I don’t count on the total 50,000 +/- downloads as I got it on the Mx store. On the other hand, I don’t follow Kris, but I would have bought LLWD if it had been released here.

I don’t know, I don’t care that much about sales numbers, it’s just interesting to talk about this kind of theories on a rainy Saturday afternoon (at least here).

I am not sure measuring twitter followers means anything. Jordan Sparks has 373,435 followers, Daughtry has 102,457. Daughtry is moving a lot more albums and headlining a tour. So twitter followers don’t mean as much as you think.

I doubt Kris garnered enough votes from frenzied anti-Adam or anti-Danny voters to make a difference (meaning they may have liked Kris Allen’s performances better week to week but didn’t put much more thought into it than that).

I see what you are saying but somehow the numbers don’t support your theory if we compare to previous seasons. I get the irritation over the statement that you either hate or love Adam/Danny and that many people just don’t care. Yes, Kris won, but he is still selling a lot less than Jordin that is considered an AI winner with a weak fanbase. Why did he win when other contestants seems to be so much more popular?

Let me see …Kris releases his single….the highest it goes is 27 on Itunes then falls off the charts. Now that it is getting radio play it is coming back a bit on the charts….Adam’s TFM releases with no fanfair….little or no promotion except for the movie. It hits 9 and then falls down the charts. So Kris’s fans are supporting him…..Adam’s fans arent. BTW….Adams cd is still in the top 20 something that Kris still hasn’t achieved. When will this comparison stop. It takes more than a couple of months to make a recording star.

That’s just a hopeful term invented and used by his fans only, I don’t think RCA has officially claimed or given any real indications that it is happening. BTW, personally, I can’t stand the term.

Invented by fans or not, I’d say it’s a fair description of the publicity storm around Adam ever since the show. It’s more than any other AIer has ever gotten. People can’t backtrack from it now after months of acknowledging it, just because there’s fear they’ve created expectations that are too high.

Do people think it’s the AI fanbase that is buying Kris’ single now? The answer is no. So for me, for you, LLWD is going to do well once it spreads spins accross the country, it will pick up and it could be as late as January. Kris’ fans who want to buy or who didn’t buy the itunes pass I believe have bought the single by now. And also taking into consideration that it was released for sales 3 days after premiere without any airplay before then, it’s as if that effect it would have had on the public is now comming in.
Looking at his AI for last week and what he sold, it’s a match.

Using the ratio of twitter numbers to determine whether Adam or Kris singles sales are successful because Adam has more followers is about as useful as using the ratio of 100 million AI votes and Kris’s landslide victory to determine success of the single.

But, if you want to go with that theory, you need to adjust for the amount of time sold. TFM has been for sale for how long? Five days I think. You’re using 63,000 for Kris’s sales based on 3.5 weeks of sales. That averages to 18,000 per week. If we’re estimated that TFM sold 50,000-60,000 this week, then it clearly eclipses the 18,000 by an average of 3 to 1, more than the disparity in twitter followers.

In the end, two separate artists, two separate paths. I just want them both to be successful.

People can’t backtrack from it now after months of acknowledging it, just because there’s fear they’ve created expectations that are too high

Likewise, peeps can’t backtrack from the claim that Kris won by millions of votes months ago and, therefore, should be selling his single like crazy (as the winner) over Adam now.

I don’t think Adam is in a do or die situation as you imply, Niall. It might seem so from the expectations but few situations are truly win or loose. He has the chance of being huge, yes, but it will all depend on the music he puts out and we all know how the idol albums tend to be. Maybe he’s found a way to avoid that, then kudos to him, but there is always a tomorrow and the vocal goods he has will always be his.

But, if you want to go with that theory, you need to adjust for the amount of time sold. TFM has been for sale for how long? Five days I think. You’re using 63,000 for Kris’s sales based on 4 weeks of sales. That averages to 18,000 per week. If we’re estimated that TFM sold 50,000-60,000 this week, then it clearly eclipses the 18,000 by an average of 3 to 1, more than the disparity in twitter followers.

Wow! CindyM. I am an accountant and was truely impressed with your analysis. True and accurate!

the 63,000 is the total sales for LLWD. In its first full week (not the truncated one after it was released on the Friday) it sold approx. 23,500 copies. So less than half of what people are estimating for TFM…

I will be interested to see if TFM gets the same kind of radio play LLWD has been able to chalk up (3000+ spins and gaining momentum).

So Kris’s fans are supporting him’ ¦..Adam’s fans arent.

I don’t see this at all. What I *see* are more-or-less casual observers commenting (possibly prematurely) on their “curiosity” about how Adam’s first song didn’t go to #1 within minutes and stay there indefinitely or until the end of the world (or until 2012. )

It’s provocative discussion on a slow news day in the world of competitive AI, imo. And it says nothing about fans not supporting their fav. If it says anything at all about fans, imo, it probably says more about how non-fans like to poke at this year’s media darling. All’s fair in love and AI.

I actually agree with what Niall is saying.

CindyM
October 24, 2009 at 6:11 pm

Using the ratio of twitter numbers to determine whether Adam or Kris singles sales are successful because Adam has more followers is about as useful as using the ratio of 100 million AI votes and Kris’s landslide victory to determine success of the single.

But, if you want to go with that theory, you need to adjust for the amount of time sold. TFM has been for sale for how long? Five days I think. You’re using 63,000 for Kris’s sales based on 4 weeks of sales. That averages to 18,000 per week. If we’re estimated that TFM sold 50,000-60,000 this week, then it clearly eclipses the 18,000 by an average of 3 to 1, more than the disparity in twitter followers.

The big difference here that no one has mentioned is that Twitter followers aren’t just in the U.S. but iTunes and Amazon sales figures are just for the U.S. Adam seems to have a decent following outside of the U.S. and TfM did premier in many different countries thus affecting sales as the gift card iTune issue is taken out of the equation for the most part which affects the sales in the U.S. versus previous sales of singles.

For posters who are confused about the meaning (that is good or bad) in the numbers & rankings of LLWD, let’s put it in perspective.

Itunes sale ranking – entered first week at #26, hovering between #30s and #50s for a few days and started dropping off the top 100 chart since Sep 30.

By comparision (other recent AI winners & contestants) David Cook’s TOML debuted at #1 on ITunes.

Total Itunes sales – LLWD sold around 25K first 3 days, 15K second week, 13K third week, 10K fourth week = $63K so far (3.5 weeks) The week to week sales has been declining despite increased radio airplay.

David Cook’s TOML sold over 100K first week, and sold more than 1 million total so far.

Billboard Top 100 ranking – LLWD entered the chart at #89 (second week since its release) but dropped off the T100 chart in both third & fourth week since its release, again despite increased radio spins & airplay.

David Cook’s TOML peaked at #3 and managed to chart at Billboard T100 for 20 weeks.

All these indicate LLWD is facing a big challenge, it may not be even a moderate hit. I don’t think Kris has a small fan base, I am thinking compared to both Adam & Danny, Kris has a higher proportion of his fanbase who are casual fans rather than dedicated fans. People are still buying his first singles and albums, but the numbers are not as high as we thought given the fact that he won AI. It’s inevitable that his numbers in sales & performance in Billboard charts will likely be compared to that of previous AI winners.

Yeah, in the end, my hope is that Adam and Kris (and Allison as well) are all successful. My main point with the twitter follower thing is that it’s really hard to estimate anyone’s true fanbase just from the online support. Because not everyone who follows and/or supports these people online is the same level of fan — some are hardcore, some are casual, etc…

Likewise, peeps can’t backtrack that Kris won by millions of votes months ago and, therefore, should be selling his single like crazy (as the winner) over Adam.

No, no, no. Breadth of fanbase versus depth of fanbase. What all evidence shows is that Kris had an extremely broad fanbase (as did, I’d hold, Allison) on Idol which he managed to get to vote for him. And what anyone should tell you about the way that producers manipulate is towards the contestants with particularly deep fanbases (Adam, Danny). There’s a reason for that; broad fanbases are far flightier and less predictable for accessing than a deep fanbase. That’s also why you tend to see the producers pimp contestants with deeper fanbases (but not always; Season Six seemed designed around cutting losses after the finals got underway), even if they are polarizing.

Now, does that make a full prognosis for the overall post-Idol trajectory? Not really. Some contestants with broader fanbases have done well off of Idol. They’re usually female contestants, boding well for Allison, but not always. It’s really hard to say at this point, and I’m not in my league making judgments on that count.

Yes, Kris won, but he is still selling a lot less than Jordin that is considered an AI winner with a weak fanbase. Why did he win when other contestants seems to be so much more popular?

Why did Taylor Hicks win and then become the biggest flop winner ever from the show? Why did Blake Lewis finish second, steal the show the entire AI tour, and then flop? Probably because the AI audience taste/likes/fixations aren’t always representative of the music buying public.

I think a so-so reaction to the song equals so-so sales. Simple. I like the song but I’m not over the moon about it either. I felt the same way about DC’s “Light On.”

On the flipside, none of us will know for sure how Adam and Kris (and Allison and Danny) will fare until a few months after their cds are released. A slow start for Kris could turn around by next January. And the expected Adam take over of the music industry could fizzle out. And then Allison might outsell them all. Or not. *shrug* I just like good music so whether they succeed or fail won’t impact my life or emotions either way.

CindyM
October 24, 2009 at 6:11 pm
But, if you want to go with that theory, you need to adjust for the amount of time sold. TFM has been for sale for how long? Five days I think. You’re using 63,000 for Kris’s sales based on 4 weeks of sales. That averages to 18,000 per week. If we’re estimated that TFM sold 50,000-60,000 this week, then it clearly eclipses the 18,000 by an average of 3 to 1, more than the disparity in twitter followers.

Wow. Thanks CindyM. This is what my question on the previous page alluded to, but my math skills suck so badly I wouldn’t have dared to try the calculation myself. Much appreciated – makes me feel better that the song did pretty well for a first week without it being introduced via radio. Gosh, I just wish we could fast forward a little bit so that either the movie 2012 was out or Adam’s single was announced.

PS – not gonna lie, listening to Justin Hawkins’ latest project “Hot Leg” and I love their sound. If “Music Again” sounds anything like this I am one happy friggin camper.

Hi Tess…Ontario here. I have cable tv here and I pick up American idol. I cannot vote but the show is very popular in Ontario

Why did he win when other contestants seems to be so much more popular?

Maybe he won because he had a lot of “fans” like me. I threw him a few votes on the final night because I liked his singing and his stage persona better than I liked Adam’s and because it was fun to participate. Beyond that, I couldn’t care less. Just because I liked him better for the season doesn’t mean I liked him well enough to buy anything from him. For me, this season was strictly talent show voting, with no meaning beyond that for me. Last year, by contrast, I was a viewer who cared passionately about David Cook and I still do, so I buy his music and go to his concerts. I never even went to this year’s AI concert because there wasn’t a performer I loved enough to overcome the pain of listening to the others. Only David Cook could accomplish that with me, lol.

I’m guessing that most people who watch AI don’t vote and a big number of people who vote don’t “care” very much. They’re just having fun with a fun show for a few nights over a few months–unless one of the contestants happens to touch their heart. None of this year’s touched my heart in a David Cook way–Allison was my fav, actually, and I probably won’t buy her cd, either–so they won’t touch my pocketbook, either.

Kris, unfortunately, may have a lot of “fans” like me. I wish him well–hell, I wish them all well and for the record, I think Adam is a charming guy–but I won’t be much help in making any of their wishes come true.

Mark
October 24, 2009 at 6:22 pm
What all evidence shows is that Kris had an extremely broad fanbase (as did, I’d hold, Allison) on Idol which he managed to get to vote for him.

Can you link me to the evidence you’re talking about?

alaadam
October 24, 2009 at 6:12 pm
“People can’t backtrack from it now after months of acknowledging it, just because there’s fear they’ve created expectations that are too high

Likewise, peeps can’t backtrack from the claim that Kris won by millions of votes months ago and, therefore, should be selling his single like crazy (as the winner) over Adam now.”

-Alaadam, I think you are reading my thoughts. At any rate, it was media who has created these high expectations from Adam because they saw his talent and his star potential. As a fan, I am flattered that they saw this in him. Adam has said in his interviews that he too was surprised with the people’s positive reaction during his AI stint. Whether the general public will continue to support him or not after AI, only time can tell. But I’m happy that he tried for AI and shared his music to us in the same manner that Kris’ fans are happy to see their Idol win resulting to guaranteed album.

I think a so-so reaction to the song equals so-so sales. Simple. I like the song but I’m not over the moon about it either. I felt the same way about DC’s ‘Light On.’ 

Yeah you might be right. I thought the song would be a hit but I don’t like it myself. Eh, I still think it could be a hit. But LO did much better than what Kris is doing now even if people felt meh about it.

Yes, Kris won, but he is still selling a lot less than Jordin that is considered an AI winner with a weak fanbase. Why did he win when other contestants seems to be so much more popular?

Could it be because the American public doesn’t like to be “told” what they should do or who they should vote for? TPTB totally pushed Danny and Adam from the start and I think it was a big turn off. Kris was under the radar all season…cute and likeable so kept getting enough votes to stay in the show. Then he pulled out his performance of “Heartless” and the rest is history.

What I liked about Adam on the show was that he was flamboyant, over the top, obviously gay and seemed totally comfortable with himself. I thought he was great fun to watch and a great entertainer. (But never did like any of his songs enough to download. Okay…so what other AI performer was fun to watch and a great performer: Taylor Hicks).

I am now getting turned off by the publicity that is going into his campaign. I loved Adam for the afore mentioned reasons…including that he was gay and comfortable with it. So now TPTB have decided that he should be heterosexual? Sorry…big turn off for me. He is not a sexy heartthrob (give me David Cook anyday!) and I am irritated that he is now being marketed as such.

Is there an iTunes or other kind of sales chart for Asia? I saw on twitter that LLWD was #1 on some radio stations in both Singapore and the Phillipines, and was wondering whether ithe single is selling at all there.

Also, has TFM been released in Asia yet?

“Wow! CindyM. I am an accountant and was truely impressed with your analysis. True and accurate!”

alaadam, CindyM, & sidewalkstory all have something in common.

I don’t think Adam is in a do or die situation as you imply, Niall. It might seem so from the expectations but few situations are truly win or loose.

Yes, he’s going to have a career regardless of whether he meets label and media and fan expectations. I’m just saying he’ll probably never see a promotional push or budget again like the one he’s got right now, if he doesn’t triumph in a big, big way. And there will be media reports of his success and they’ll either trumpet the arrival of superstar Adam Lambert, the male Lady GaGa/Madonna, or they’ll harp on how he didn’t live up to the hype. The media giveth and the media taketh away and there’s no escaping it because what the media reports will ultimately shape the perception.

Likewise, peeps can’t backtrack from the claim that Kris won by millions of votes months ago and, therefore, should be selling his single like crazy (as the winner) over Adam now.’ 

The “Kris will outsell Adam” and “Adam is going to outsell God” hype from fans would be exhibit A and B for future fanbases to just keep their hyperbole to themselves, lest they be forced to eat their words later on.

Wow that is impressive that Danny is working with Matthew West. My mom listens to Christian radio all the time and he gets played A LOT. Honestly I can really see Danny fitting in that market but IDK. They djs at our local station loved Danny this year and were really rooting for a Danny/Kris finale (Even though I think that would have been really boring haha)

On the flipside, none of us will know for sure how Adam and Kris (and Allison and Danny) will fare until a few months after their cds are released. A slow start for Kris could turn around by next January. And the expected Adam take over of the music industry could fizzle out. And then Allison might outsell them all. Or not.

Yup. We can argue hardcore fanbase size until the cows go home, but we are still only talking about the first few weeks worth of sales. We won’t know jack for 6 months or so.

Big hardcore fanbases are good to have because it gives you a bit more of a cushion. More people to annoy PDs request your song, more people to buy tickets to your concert, more people getting you closer to recoupment. But they are not the be all end all. These people have to get on somebody’s radio and sell singles, albums, or both. Period.

That said, I agree with Nlail that you can’t crow about your idol being the most popular, revel in his glowing press all summer, coo over predictions of his impending greatness, flail about his magazines flying off the shelf and then get defensive when folks are all **um, what?** when he doesn’t sell gazillion copies of his first release. LOL. This is what comes with the attention. Increases expectations and scrutiny. Thems the breaks.

Ok, on that I agree Niall! Crazy situation to be in for Adam, I’d say. I wonder if he is bothered by nightmares… All you can do is your best and hope it works out somehow.

Or (and stay with me here because I know this is a controversial idea)the majority of Kris Allen’s votes had NOTHING TO DO WITH ADAM or any other contestant, and everything to do with the casual AI audience (which is the vast majority), the ones who watch and vote but usually don’t buy the music.

I think you have something here. I found that many people who were big fans while the show was on, just didn’t bother to follow them or buy their stuff afterwards.

Izzie2
October 24, 2009 at 6:29 pm

Yes, Kris won, but he is still selling a lot less than Jordin that is considered an AI winner with a weak fanbase. Why did he win when other contestants seems to be so much more popular?

Could it be because the American public doesn’t like to be ‘told’  what they should do or who they should vote for? TPTB totally pushed Danny and Adam from the start and I think it was a big turn off. Kris was under the radar all season’ ¦cute and likeable so kept getting enough votes to stay in the show. Then he pulled out his performance of ‘Heartless’  and the rest is history.

What I liked about Adam on the show was that he was flamboyant, over the top, obviously gay and seemed totally comfortable with himself. I thought he was great fun to watch and a great entertainer. (But never did like any of his songs enough to download. Okay’ ¦so what other AI performer was fun to watch and a great performer: Taylor Hicks).

I am now getting turned off by the publicity that is going into his campaign. I loved Adam for the afore mentioned reasons’ ¦including that he was gay and comfortable with it. So now TPTB have decided that he should be heterosexual? Sorry’ ¦big turn off for me. He is not a sexy heartthrob (give me David Cook anyday!) and I am irritated that he is now being marketed as such.

Adam is not being portrayed as being hetrosexual – Detail mag photoshoot is a play on the theme that hetro women love gay guys and have fantasies about them.

TPTB are not pushing Adam on anyone, the media has taken an interest in Adam and it has mushroomed from there.

I am a strong minded person and I don’t get irritated if someone is “pimped”. Nor do I get all riled up about it and blame that someone who is only trying to further his or her career. I guess I try to be fair and balanced in that way. Danny was heavily pimped several ways and I although I was not impressed with him on AI I was impressed with him on tour. But each person is different and reacts to situations differently.

I don’t think Adam is in a do or die situation as you imply, Niall. It might seem so from the expectations but few situations are truly win or loose. He has the chance of being huge, yes, but it will all depend on the music he puts out and we all know how the idol albums tend to be. Maybe he’s found a way to avoid that, then kudos to him, but there is always a tomorrow and the vocal goods he has will always be his.

I agree — possibly the best thing that ever happened to Adam is that he didn’t win Idol. If he won, expectations would be very high — but he lost and I think his fans, the media and the industry got realistic. He will not be an overnight success — but I think he has the talent, the personality and the intelligence needed for long-term success. And longevity, in my opinion, is a big part what defines real success.

Carrie and Kelly have proven they have staying power — the jury’s out on Daughtry, Jordin, Cook and Archie — but the other Idol alums have kind of fadded away. Jordin looks like she might be able to transition and build a sustained recording artist career. And I am optimistic about Cook. Daughtry’s 2nd album was a creative disappointment to me (and his sales haven’t met expectations) and I just don’t see Archie moving beyond his Teen Pop audience. JMO YMMV — actually I am certain that YMWillV.

And technically, since it is going to be on his album, it is his first single. It’s just that 19/RCA is go to promote a different song from the album to advertise and showcase the album. Hopefully soon. But like I said earlier, I don’t think they’ll release the next single until after 2012 opens.

If it included on his album as the “bonus track” as many people who follow Idol careers expect, then technically it is not the first single from the album. Just like “Heartless” is not Kris’ first single from the album.

Regarding the predictions about sales # for Adam, no one except that folks at Amazon and iTunes has a clue — except that is is probably going to be more than 20,000.

Does anyone know how the international download numbers are reported? TfM was or is in the iTunes top 100 in at least 10 countries — US, Canada, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Mexico, Portugal and Italy. Currently #15 in Finland, #15 Canada, #99 Mexico and so on …

I’m still totally in the dark about how Danny is going to do. On the one hand, he is working with a lot of very respected songwriters/producers. He also seems to be getting more involved in the whole country music “scene/vibe” by going to various industry events. On the other hand, I still don’t know if he is going to be accepted by those country music fans who don’t like musicians crossing over from other genres simply because they think it’s the best way of being successful. And in my mind, that is still what Danny did. If he c