Idol Billboard Update for Issue 12/06/08

Congrats to both Davids!!!!!!!!

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE DAVIDS!! for their respective achievements…Im very happy watching these two guys live their dreams………

Congrats to the Davids!! Truly making season 7 one for the books.

Happy Days for both David! Continued success to both! It is very exciting.

Speaking of the David’s. Have you heard the radio interview when DA called in to Cook’s interview. I only have a 10 second version, but I love Cook’s hearty laugh when he immediately recognizes DA’s voice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_nJA26OArk

LOL…im just kinda waiting for our experts’ analysis of these figures……….hmm

Great number for both Davids :thumbup_tb:

Congrats and best wishes for both :clap_tb:

Speaking of the Davidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s. Have you heard the radio interview when DA called in to Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interview. I only have a 10 second version, but I love Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s hearty laugh when he immediately recognizes DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s voice.

This video is love, Archie sounds so happy when he said “Hey David” and the Cookie little smile :wub_tb: I LUV THE DAVIDS!!!!

Wow. Congrats to both Davids…do I dare suggest that maybe, just maybe, we finally have a season where both the winner AND runner-up will have legitimate careers in mainstream music? I hope so! This is awesome. And this also makes Archie the youngest artist from AI with a platinum single, as he’s slightly younger than Jordin was. How cool.

Yeah, I wish we had the full vid. Cookie’s expression when he knows it’s Archie is pretty priceless.

Good for them. Hope they keep having weeks as good as this one.
What’s with Canada’s love for Come Back To Me?
Speaking of Canada, does anyone know how to track the international sales?

Speaking of the Davidà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s. Have you heard the radio interview when DA called in to Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interview. I only have a 10 second version, but I love Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s hearty laugh when he immediately recognizes DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s voice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_nJA26OArk

Awwww… thanks. That was cute.
Do you know what Archie asked?

leome- I don’t. I will ask around and see if I can find the rest of it.

sidewalk, I dare say you may be right. LOL! I’m really happy for both guys.

That’s adorable—I love the brotherly thing with DA and DC, and DC has a fantastic laugh. I believe that DA’s question was “What was the hardest song for you to record,” and DC’s answer was “a rock version of Crush.”

Thanks for the link to the interview, LK08, but it’s already been posted in today’s headlines thread, where a discussion has already started. Let’s keep this thread focused on the Billboard and chart numbers.

Thanks. .

does anyone know how to track the international sales?

Here:

Global Chart for Singles

Global Chart for Albums

Sorry MJ.

Does anyone know where to get current numbers for idol singles- even past idols? I know Kirsten posts things here, but is there a spot where you can find them all of the time?

Thanks FF.

And thanks Celeste for the links. That’s interesting. I understand the albums are only available in Canada and some countries in Asia, but I thought the boys would sell a bit more overseas.

Does anyone know where to get current numbers for idol singles- even past idols? I know Kirsten posts things here, but is there a spot where you can find them all of the time?

Kirsten gets her numbers from Idol Chatter:

http://blogs.usatoday.com/idolchatter/2008/11/idol-sales-je-1.html#more

Thanks.

The success of Come Back to Me is a bit of a mystery. It was the highest selling single in the US after LO (the current single), Declaration (on myspace, soundcheck, and AOL Sessions, and also having appeared on SNL and a bit on the AMA Preshow), and Permanent (on myspace, Soundcheck, and AOL Sessions). Unlike those three songs, its only media play that we know about is a clip on NPR. Yet it sold a fair amount in the US and Canada.

^^ LOL. Probably had nothing to do with this, but David A. recommended Come Back To Me, along with Permanent and Light On, on his blog. Not saying that was enough to make an impact, but his fans tend to follow his lead when it comes to checking out music he suggests. I’m sure many now have Decode by Paramore as part of their iTunes library because he suggested that this week.

In all seriousness, though, sometimes it just has to do with the clips on iTunes. Some songs have better clips than others. And I just listened to Come Back To Me’s clip, and it’s quite good. It captures a “hook-y” part of the song. David A.’s songs “Don’t Let Go” and “Running” are hampered with clips that just don’t catch, and they were the lowest-selling songs. I’m sure you would probably find the same for Cook’s lowest-selling songs.

This isn’t directly in response to the conversation in this thread, but more in response to discussions that have taken place in recent threads. However, it is relevant to this subject, so I don’t think I’m going off-topic.

I think we need to redefine what success is for the Davids. It’s not how well they do against each other, past Idols, or even other artists in the music world. First and foremost, success is whatever will allow them to keep their record deals. Idols get dropped from their labels left and right. Simply being greenlighted to put out a sophomore album, then, has to be viewed as success.

Second, success is “clearing the bar” on their first album by enough, so that when the second album inevitably doesn’t do as well as the first (none of them do these days), they have established themselves to the point that they will get to make a third. Kelly is a prime example of this. My December was not a hit record, but she’s done well enough in the past that she wasn’t in danger of being cut.

The good news is both Davids seem to be in very good shape in this regards. Cook is projected to clear 400,000 units in his first two weeks. He’s positioned himself very nicely to sell over a million altogether which not everybody does anymore. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could make a push for two million. There are a half dozen or more singles on the record if RCA chooses to put that many out, and his big guns (Lie, Permanent) are still holstered. Over two million? That’d be hard to see in today’s industry, but never say never.

Archie, for his part, seems poised to do approximately as well as Jordin with his singles. He may not have anything on par with “No Air”, but he’s probably got more than singles total than her. And all of them should do as well as Crush, and some maybe even a bit better. And let’s not forget that Jordin herself will eventually have a platinum album. So, the signs look very good for DA too.

Thanks for the good laugh noctem seizure. Always loved your analysis.

Cookie is 2nd to Il Divo, eh? Well, he’d probably die a little inside if he read this, but I’d wager that a fair portion of his fanbase loves them too. We ladies of certain ages tend to have pretty wide-ranging tastes in music.

Is it too off-topic to ask how he got a snippet played on NPR?

What’s funny about it? Street Pulse has Cook off 55% from last week, and as the drop-rate has beer, er, dropping since the beginning of the week, his decrease will probably end up at about 50% by the end of today. But, even a 55% drop computes to around 126,000 for the week. And that amounts to a two week total of 406,000. You don’t think an album that does 400K in two weeks looks very good to go platinum, especially when there are more and better singles in reserve?

And Jive seems more interested in pushing Archie as a singles artist. Crush went platinum, and I expect that won’t be his only song that does so. And his CD could get there eventually too.

ETA:

Or are you laughing at my definition of what “success” would be for them. Both DC and DA just want to make it in the music business. Only those who have an investment in the fan wars would define success for them otherwise. Cook isn’t going to displace Nickelback any time soon and neither will Archie supplant the Jonas Brothers and Miley Cyrus. If they can establish lasting careers for themselves in the industry, then they will both be successes.

While I have my reservations about streetpulse, I do seem to recall that they accurately calculated the drop rates for both Taylor Swift and DA last week. If they turn out to be right on DC, he’ll have a very strong second week, which puts him in an excellent position to exceed gold by a good margin before Xmas.

And most people agree that there are stronger singles on the record than Light On—they just tend to disagree as to which ones should come next. (I still think that Declaration will be next—today is the first day that it has dropped off of the top 120 pop songs on itunes since its release 10 days ago, without even having been released. And I think that Lie, possibly as a dual release with BBS, would be next after that and would be huge.) So, yes—noctem’s analysis looks spot-on to me.

On billboard, I dropped a request that we get a leak of Magic Rainbow’s numbers next week. If we do, it would include this week’s numbers—I’m betting that we’ll see that the Rainbow went into negative numbers this week because of “complete my album.” Fingers crossed that my request is granted….

Whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s funny about it? Street Pulse has Cook off 55% from last week, and as the drop-rate has beer, er, dropping since the beginning of the week, his decrease will probably end up at about 50% by the end of today. But, even a 55% drop computes to around 126,000 for the week. And that amounts to a two week total of 406,000.

I will be ecstatic if Cook passes the 400K mark this week, but I’m certainly not counting on it. At this point, it’s enough to know that he’s doing very well, and I can’t wait to get news about the next single for a better sense of the long term plan.
Seems to me like Declaration has already been chosen, but I guess it’s all open until we get official word. It that’s not the next single, I’m hoping Lie is. It’s a big fan favorite, as far as i can tell.

Is it too off-topic to ask how he got a snippet played on NPR?

It was played during a review they had of the album.

While I have my reservations about streetpulse, I do seem to recall that they accurately calculated the drop rates for both Taylor Swift and DA last week.

No, they didn’t. They were too generous for both, by over 10 percentage points. They tend to overestimate sales, at least for second week drop-offs. I haven’t checked how they are in subsequent weeks.

They were closest to DA’s actual drop-off on Saturday (although it wasn’t right that day either), when they should have been on Monday, because that counted the entire week’s sales. DA was down to 50% drop-off on Monday. He wound up with a normal 63.5% drop-off. This Saturday, however, was messed up because (1) there was a whole day where almost nothing sold because the stores were closed, and (2) the following 3 days where there was an unusually large amount of sales. I don’t think StreetPulse’s estimation system is good enough to account for either. They’re not good enough to calculate percentages on regular weeks.

I’ve played the StreetPulse game and it got me nowhere.

I don’t put all that much stock in Street Pulse. I’ve followed them for a while and they’ve been very hit or miss. They also had DC above Nickelback most of the week last week so I just can’t make a safe bet on that 55% drop. He should have a decent week on the strength of Black Friday shopping but it’s still hard to predict.

It was the ranking versus Nickelback, as well as the ranking on AC which had Enya ahead of Beyonce, that made me have suspicions regarding streetpulse. One of the weirdest things last week was that they had DC ahead of NB on all but one format, when we know that NB was ahead of DC, but it also makes no sense to have different sales rankings on different formats.

I wish that HDD would give an estimate, but I suspect that we’ll have to wait until the building chart to get any sense as to how the records did this week.

Thanks for the good laugh noctem seizure.

Yeah…I’m confused as to why noctem’s post was considered funny also. I thought noctem’s post was really good and spot on. Cook’s album seems to be holding steady at around 15ish on iTunes, so I am hoping he reaches 400K this week. That would be amazing. I also think that the two David’s will be around in the music business for quite a while. Both are very talented.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m hoping Lie is. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a big fan favorite, as far as i can tell.

It’s one of my favorites! Lie, Barbasol, and Come Back to Me are my top three. Declaration would be in my top 4. So I would be happy if any of those were the next single.

Am I the only one who thinks that Life On The Moon could be one of the “big guns” on DC’s album? You never can tell with these things (and I’ve been wrong before), but I think that song could be huge for DC. I do think Declaration will probably be the next single (and Lie is one of my favorites on the album), but I really hope that Life On The Moon gets released as a single later on.

Archie, for his part, seems poised to do approximately as well as Jordin with his singles. He may not have anything on par with à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“No Airà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ , but heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s probably got more than singles total than her.

Again, I’ve been wrong before, but I think Barriers could be the No Air of Archie’s album if it’s ever released as a single. I think that song could get airplay on CHR, Rhythmic, maybe even Urban (long shot, but maybe) if they were to do a remix. I just think that song has loads of potential. I think ALTNOY could be his OSAAT. I think it will be as successful as Crush-wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being more successful-but I think it will have a slow and steady climb up the charts.

Am I the only one who thinks that Life On The Moon could be one of the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“big gunsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  on DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album?

LOTM is one of my favorite songs on the album and I also think it would be huge. I love the chords in the beginning and I love the way the song unfolds. The 30 second clip does not do it justice. It hasn’t been getting the same amount of love as some of the other songs on the album so I’m not sure that they will release it next. It would be perfect as the background for any kind of montage on American Idol. I’m OK with either Lie or Declaration as a second single if that’s what they end up doing. I like Come Back to Me but I want them to release a song that David wrote. Permanent is also a personal favorite that would probably kill on the radio but I’m not sure David will want to release it. I also like the idea of submitting Barbasol at the same time as Lie or following on the heels of Declaration.

Archie’s song Barriers is an awesome song that I’m hoping they release at some point. I find it funny that people consider No Air a song to aspire to. I know it’s an extremely successful song but I cannot switch my car radio fast enough when that song comes on. There are at least 5 songs on Archie’s album that I would rather listen to than No Air, but I think my taste is in the minority.

I think the Davids have really good shots at platinum albums. Both have a number of strong potential singles on their arsenals, and both are dealing with labels/management that are solidly behind them. I am intrigued by the idea of selling enough to justify not just a second, but a third album, however. In this sales climate, I have no idea how much that would be. Any thoughts?

Archieà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s song Barriers is an awesome song that Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m hoping they release at some point.

I agree. Barriers is my favorite on the album. I think it would be a huge hit. It doesn’t seem to be in the running for a single though, since “the hands” songs were in Rate the Music, and ALTNOY is the next single. Oh well.

Am I the only one who thinks that Life On The Moon could be one of the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“big gunsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  on DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album?

You are not. It’s one of my top 3 favorites right now and has been since I first heard the snippet (the other two favorites, Lie and Avalanche, took longer to climb up my private little chart).
It seems to sort of get lost in the shuffle, though, for many fans, I don’t think I’ve seen many people mention it as a potential single.
I just think the story behind the song is compelling and interesting. I love that David wrote such a beautiful, poignant song about the Idol experience and I think there’s something about that song that really connects on an emotional level. But that’s just MHO.

In this sales climate, I have no idea how much that would be. Any thoughts?

I really don’t know, but I think going Platinum is always a good benchmark to reach. I do hope that both labels have a bigger picture in mind, though, and that there’s no actual figure either David has to reach to get to put up another album.

I really donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know, but I think going Platinum is always a good benchmark to reach. I do hope that both labels have a bigger picture in mind, though, and that thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s no actual figure either David has to reach to get to put up another album.

Platinum will most definitely get them to a next album. I am thinking more about Noctem’s question, which (I think) was… how much do you have to sell to guarantee your label will release album #3, even if album #2 flops – a la Kelly Clarkson. I’m thinking that it has to be a super-smash like Daughtry and Carrie/Some Hearts, but how much would that be these days? 3 millon? 2 and a half? I have no idea.

I doubt that anyone really knows at this point. It may also depend on how much tour money and other ancillary dollars an artist brings in, whether the artist wins big awards, especially how many Grammys, whether the artist achieves critical acclaim.

ow much do you have to sell to guarantee your label will release album #3, even if album #2 flops – a la Kelly Clarkson. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m thinking that it has to be a super-smash like Daughtry and Carrie/Some Hearts, but how much would that be these days? 3 millon? 2 and a half? I have no idea.

It’s going to be different for the Davids. Jive spends less money. They probably spent less producing DA’s album than RCA did with DC (considering the amount of “names” that show up on DC’s album). I think that’s a reasonable assumption to make. DC’s video for LO looks more expensive than the video for “Crush.” I think the video shoot was even a day longer. And Jive/Zomba doesn’t really spend oodles on album promotion–even with their bigger artists like P!nk (she’s Zomba). They kind of just let the singles do the work (which they’re very good at pushing); management gets the artist out there and that’s that. Which is why, unless the artist is Britney or Justin, Jive/Zomba artists rarely sell massively out of the gate–but a lot reach platinum on the backs of their singles.

I think whatever amount sold that results in a profit for the label will guarantee album #2, but that amount will be different for DA and DC (awards, successful merchandising and concerts also matter). In other words, I don’t think DA has to sell as many albums, and I think Jive strategically designed his promotion and album launch to be that way. I think it’s the same thing they did with Jordin, and why they seem very happy with her. She hasn’t yet gone platinum, but they’re probably making a profit off her anyway. It’s all going to be about profit margins, not total cash pulled in.

That said, DA has started to talk as if he already has a second studio album. He used to say, “IF I get to make another album.” Now he’s saying, “for my second album….” He’s very careful with his words. It makes me think that Jive has already exercised some option in his contract for at least one, if not 2 more albums (the rumor was one album with an option for 2 more and his contract is apparently very long (2014 or something like that)). The rumored Christmas album next year would count as one, but David has definitely been talking about a second studio album.

In other words, I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think DA has to sell as many albums,

I guess it’s a good thing that David Cook is pretty handily outselling David Archuleta then. Looks like RCA’s expenditures are paying off. They’re doing a great job keeping him in the public’s consciousness, what with the AI promo, frequent ET stories, EW and other magazine/internet coverage, being in the Rockefeller Center Christmas concert, etc.

Because pushing for singles must be for free…
All the speculation about how much RCA/19/Zomba/Jive spends always makes me laugh, like we have any idea how things work behind the scenes and how much they spend.

Both will make a second album, no matter how and when, it will happen. But both need to sell well, not just because of the labels but because it would keep their name out there and if they want to have a long career I think their first albums need to make an impact.

Just stoping by to said that Barriers is really cool and definitly could be a single I like it more that No Air (when I listen to No Air I can  ´t stop thinking how cool it will sound with Archie ´s voice)… I really hope that Archie gets to do a second album, because I think he is really growing as an artist and as a performer, AOL sessions are hot!, in the end Best luck for both Davids!!!!

In other words, I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think DA has to sell as many albums, and I think Jive strategically designed his promotion and album launch to be that way. I think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s the same thing they did with Jordin, and why they seem very happy with her. She hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t yet gone platinum, but theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re probably making a profit off her anyway.

I disagree. I think if a label really believes in an artist of theirs and believe that that artist will have long term success, then they will spend the money in promoting that artist. They are after all, “investing” in that artist. It is just like any other business promoting a product. If you believe in the product, you advertise it. Advertising pays off. Simple as that. Why do companies pay big bucks for advertisements on TV? During the superbowl? They would not be spending that money if they didn’t believe they would make money at the end. I take it as a huge complement that RCA is “investing” in their product David Cook.

I am just curious. Why do you think Jive is happy with Jordin? I don’t know one way or the other, but I think I would be disappointed in her album sales. Considering she has had 3 songs in the top 10 (or was it top 5?), and has not yet sold platinum seems a disappointment to me. Who knows how much money Jive paid in promotion or getting the radio to play her songs? I don’t believe big money is made for the label in selling 99 cent singles. Unless you sell a bazillion of them. Money seems to come from selling albums.

I guess ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a good thing that David Cook is pretty handily outselling David Archuleta then. Looks like RCAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s expenditures are paying off. Theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re doing a great job keeping him in the publicà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s consciousness, what with the AI promo, frequent ET stories, EW and other magazine/internet coverage, being in the Rockefeller Center Christmas concert, etc.

Yes, it worked for Cook–he got great first week numbers. Both Davids have to have consistency though. (These next few weeks aren’t going to tell us much about consistency for either–holiday sales are misleading, at best) Promotion comes in spurts, it doesn’t happen all the time. Both need great singles that are out there and doing their job selling the albums.

Cook’s sales interest me academically. I don’t care who sells more albums, though. They’re different artists, in different genres, and their labels and management have completely different goals. So to compare them in any other way than academically (understanding the entire circumstances of each album, the promotional strategy, the ultimate goals) is useless, primarily because different artists sell differently. This is especially so when we’re talking about different primary fanbases with different buying habits.

I’m very pleased with David A.’s sales, his promotion and popularity. He’s becoming popular on merits outside of American Idol–ranking #1 again today on XRank. He’s #53 on Billboard’s Buzz 100 today. He’s doing incredibly and it bodes well for future success in album sales, merchandising and concert sales. So that’s really all I care about.

All the speculation about how much RCA/19/Zomba/Jive spends always makes me laugh, like we have any idea how things work behind the scenes and how much they spend.

There are things that we don’t know of course but if you look closely some of it is plain common sense. Anyway, speculating is fun!

Congrats to both David’s on their achievments!

Oh come on, tell me how RCA overspends this time, acts that perform on AMAs get paid, not the other way around.

There are things that we donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know of course but if you look closely some of it is plain common sense.

I don’t know… for some people is common sense that people pay to be on SNL. Common sense is a tricky thing…

I disagree. I think if a label really believes in an artist of theirs and believe that that artist will have long term success, then they will spend the money in promoting that artist. They are after all, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“investingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  in that artist. It is just like any other business promoting a product. If you believe in the product, you advertise it. Advertising pays off. Simple as that. Why do companies pay big bucks for advertisements on TV? During the superbowl? They would not be spending that money if they didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t believe they would make money at the end. I take it as a huge complement that RCA is à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“investingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  in their product David Cook.

I disagree with your disagreement. lol. So under your logic Jive simply doesn’t believe in David A. as much as RCA believes in Cook because they didn’t pull out every stop and spend as much money promoting his album. I don’t think that’s the case at all. It’s business strategy–spending less on advertising may sell less, but it may get you more profit in the end. It’s not restricted to album sales. Companies that don’t know how to spend their money go bankrupt. Not every company spending tons on advertising is doing the right thing for their bottom line. More advertising doesn’t necessarily equal more profit. More dollars in, sure, but not more profit because you have to subtract costs.

And it’s very obvious that Jive didn’t spend oodles on David A.’s album promotion. They did enough, though. They did a great job–doing what Jive does. Promoting singles doesn’t cost a whole lot of money (except labor costs, and the travel expenses for a radio promotional tour) because payola is now illegal. Which is why I speculate Jive spends its time promoting singles.

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t knowà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ for some people is common sense that people pay to be on SNL.

:laugh_tb:

Oh come on, tell me how RCA overspends this time, acts that perform on AMAs get paid, not the other way around.

I actually said nothing about DC’s promotion in my initial post–I said they spent more on his album and his video. I know the whole RCA/promotion thing is a sticky subject. I know how Jive promotes David A. That’s all I talked about in terms of promotion.

I think it’s reasonable to believe that RCA spent more money on DC’s album and video than Jive spent on DA’s album and video. Hence, my original theory that Jive will make a profit with less albums sold.

Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sales interest me academically. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t care who sells more albums, though. Theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re different artists, in different genres, and their labels and management have completely different goals.

Again, I respectfully disagree. Labels and management to me all have the same goals. To sell the most albums and to make the most money that they can. Selling “more” albums is important. It is also important to have good first week numbers because it creates publicity and buzz. Otherwise, the labels would not put forth such efforts with advertising album releases, having pre-sales etc.

Heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s doing incredibly and it bodes well for future success in album sales, merchandising and concert sales. So thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s really all I care about.

I agree. Archie is doing amazing and I think he will have future success.

No matter how much money a label spends it is much easier to make a profit $9.99 at a time than $.99 at a time. Enron notwithstanding no accountant is that creative.

So it’s only about one video? I believe he can afford it. And i’m glad it doesn’t look cheap, cause it get played on a lot of shows when they about him.

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t care who sells more albums, though. Theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re different artists, in different genres, and their labels and management have completely different goals. So to compare them in any other way than academically (understanding the entire circumstances of each album, the promotional strategy, the ultimate goals) is useless, primarily because different artists sell differently. This is especially so when weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re talking about different primary fanbases with different buying habits.

I disagree with a lot of what you said above, soundscene, but I agree with about 90% of this quote. The 10% with which I disagree? Is the concept that comparing them “academically” makes any sense either, for all of the reasons that you cite for why they are different. Academic or any other comparison makes no sense because they are different, in terms of genre, artistry, labels, and appeal to different kinds of buyers with different kinds of buying habits. Just as an example, your statement that “different primary fanbases with different buying habits” goes directly to the question of whether each artist will be equally dependent on high-selling singles.

I also agree with the folks above that none of us know how much (if anything) the various promotions that have been done to date for either David cost. To the extent that Jive uses its “credit” with Z100 to get DA’s single played there, does that count against him? Did either label pay anything for the itunes ads? Etc., etc.

Again, I respectfully disagree. Labels and management to me all have the same goals. To sell the most albums and to make the most money that they can. Selling à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“moreà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  albums is important. It is also important to have good first week numbers because it creates publicity and buzz. Otherwise, the labels would not put forth such efforts with advertising album releases, having pre-sales etc.

I don’t disagree that money is the bottom line–that’s what I’ve been saying this entire time. Money… or PROFIT… is the bottom line. Total cash in is not what it’s all about. If costs are too high, and revenue doesn’t top the costs, it doesn’t matter how many albums an artist sells. It’s like big blockbuster movies that make 100 million dollars and barely break even. They made tons more money total than the small independent film that made only, say, $20 million at the box office. But it cost a heck of a lot more to make the blockbuster. The indie movie may have pulled in 10x the profit.

I just offer that as an example of the theory I’m talking about; I’m not directly correlating either album to movies.

Buzz from first week sales lasts about a couple of weeks. It didn’t help Madonna for her last album that she sold massively first week. It didn’t help Britney Spears with her last album that she sold massively first week. Neither performed up to expectations in the long run.

Yes, labels love big first week sales. But not all labels are built alike. There’s not just one strategy for all artists.

One aspect that has been left out is touring. Rock bands tend to tour until the wheels fall off in support of albums and that’s where they rake in the good money. Good exposure can come with a great opening slot. I think that’s somewhere that Cook will do particularly well.

I don’t know how it works for pop acts for touring; what kind of tours do you think Archie could get on for support to help get his name out there more? I know the teen craze is pretty big right now; do you think that would be a good fit or is that mostly reserved for the Disney crowd?

Both need great singles that are out there and doing their job selling the albums.

I hear this said all the time on this site, but I don’t particularly believe it, at least as it pertains to radio play. This is a link to an article from the 9/27/08 issue of Bilboard titled “100 best ways for Your Music to Get Attention”. LadyMadonna at DCO has kindly posted it as a blog post for those of us who don’t subscribe.

http://www.davidcookofficial.com/blog/maximum-exposure-the-100-best-ways-your-music-get-attention

Radio play is ranked at the bottom of the list. TV or movie placement, whether in a show or an ad, iTunes advertising, print media, whether in an ad or a story, and playing live at music festivals make up the bulk of the entries. I’d say the record labels can see this for themselves, given how many artists go around doing interviews and appearances, and getting their songs placed on TV in ads or on soundtracks these days.

http://www.davidcookofficial.com/blog/maximum-exposure-the-100-best-ways-your-music-get-attention

I subscribe to Billboard–I’ve seen this. But Billboard is the last publication to devalue radio airplay. And most of those tactics are temporary. Radio play is continual if you have a hit single. They may rank it lower because the other tactics give a song an immediate burst of promotion, but if you want longevity and album sales, you need something that is out there for much longer.

Well, the bottom line is that if I were an artist, I would want the label promoting me. I would want a great video with a great producer. And I would also want to be selling more albums than anyone else on the planet, regardless of genre. I don’t think I have ever heard an artist complain that “I just got too much promotion from my label!” LOL.

Is the concept that comparing them à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“academicallyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  makes any sense either, for all of the reasons that you cite for why they are different. Academic or any other comparison makes no sense because they are different, in terms of genre, artistry, labels, and appeal to different kinds of buyers with different kinds of buying habits.

I think you misunderstand what I mean by “academically.” I mean exactly what I said above–when I said that the cost of Cook’s album and video likely meant that he will have to sell more to make a profit than David A. That’s it. That’s my academic comparison of the two.

And I stress again that I was not talking about Cook’s promotion at all. Just the cost of his album and video. I’ve stopped attempting to talk specifically about Cook’s promotion a long time ago.

Radio play is ranked at the bottom of the list.

But doesn’t radio play help a song become popular thus helping it get into those other mediums?

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think I have ever heard an artist complain that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“I just got too much promotion from my label!à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ 

I didnt take it that Soundcene was saying that Cook was getting too much promotion. She was just talking profit margin period.

No matter how much money a label spends it is much easier to make a profit $9.99 at a time than $.99 at a time. Enron notwithstanding no accountant is that creative.

True. But both are selling albums. My theory doesn’t assume that one is not selling albums and is only selling singles. However you slice it, David A. is selling a lot better than most new pop artists (and some not-so-new pop artists).

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know how it works for pop acts for touring; what kind of tours do you think Archie could get on for support to help get his name out there more? I know the teen craze is pretty big right now; do you think that would be a good fit or is that mostly reserved for the Disney crowd?

There are pop tours. David A. is going to tour starting early next year.

Both will make a second album, no matter how and when, it will happen.

Just to be nit-picky and annoying, Cook will make a 4th album, as far as I’m concerend.
1 – 2006 – Analog Heart
2 – 2007 – 2nd Unreleased Album (unreleased because of Idol, but it is done, mixed and all, and I imagine we’d get to hear it sooner or later. Fingers crossed)
3 – 2008 – DCTR
4 – ????

I’m also one who’s sort of curious how this talk about Jive spending little and RCA spending much turned into “these are the facts” when we really don’t know in this case. I’d like to know where exactly is it evident that RCA spent so much more on DC than Jive did on DA. The videos? I’m not so sure there’s a very big difference there. What else?

Right, I understand that there are. But my question was more along the lines of who he could hitch his star to in the genre for a tour to get a little boost. I don’t expect either David to sell out arenas on their own but they could play in arenas if they opened for the right person. I know all about the rock tours and the rock bands that are out there right now so I’m asking who, since I know less about pop, Archie could pair with to get him that same level of exposure.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m also one whoà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sort of curious how this talk about Jive spending little and RCA spending much turned into à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“these are the factsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  when we really donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t know in this case. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d like to know where exactly is it evident that RCA spent so much more on DC than Jive did on DA. The videos? Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m not so sure thereà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a very big difference there. What else?

Taking promotion completely out of the picture (because I wasn’t talking about it), Cook had a ton more “names” involved in his album. They aren’t cheap–especially Cavallo. Cook had a 2-day video shoot to David A.’s 1-day shoot. Jive used product placement in the Crush video. I don’t know if RCA did with Cook’s–maybe they did.

Have you seen the Crush video? I really like it–it’s cute. But it’s not expensive. One location, unknown actors from Georgia, and David.

I think logically you can say that the LO video cost more.

I didnt take it that Soundcene was saying that Cook was getting too much promotion. She was just talking profit margin period.

Yes, exactly. I never said Cook got too much promotion. My entire point was that profit can be made in different ways–and that David A. may not have to sell as many albums for Jive to make a profit. I wasn’t even talking about promotion.

Radio play is ranked at the bottom of the list. TV or movie placement, whether in a show or an ad, iTunes advertising, print media, whether in an ad or a story, and playing live at music festivals make up the bulk of the entries. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d say the record labels can see this for themselves, given how many artists go around doing interviews and appearances, and getting their songs placed on TV in ads or on soundtracks these days.

Of course all this helps, but you still need airplay and I don’t believe at all it should be ranked at the bottom. All the above things will help as they happen but they aren’t ongoing. How do you think Daughtry ended up selling 4.5 million CD’s in a span of 2 years? Consistent airplay, hit singles.

Serious question here..what is DC getting that’s so unusual in terms of promotion for a winner? He’s a new artist and he won AI, so of course they’re going to push him. With the exception of Taylor has any winner not received good album promo? Haven’t most winners worked with ‘names’ on their debut CD’s? I can’t recall if any have a had a Wayne Isham caliber director for their first video but other than that what’s so out of the ordinary? I didn’t even think the video itself looked that expensive.

I think that you’re splitting hairs there, soundscene. Comparing is comparing is comparing. If the Davids aren’t comparable, then they aren’t comparable. Throwing in a factor here or there to try to make an “academic” comparison doesn’t make the comparison any more valid.

As for the claimed cost differential, I’d say that there are plenty of unknown costs for both Davids that we don’t know, in terms of production and in terms of promotion. I don’t think that anyone on this board could possibly know which one has had higher costs overall, and even if we assume for argument’s sake that DC’s costs have been higher, we don’t know the degree to which that may be the case. We also don’t know the degree to which his win on the show may have given him some amount of money to put toward the record.

On the “hit single” point: I’ve previously pointed out the Lefsetz letter that has made clear that, despite hit singles, neither Katy Perry nor Pink has set the record sales world on fire. I’ve heard So What so much that I went from rather liking it to trying to figure out how to fast forward my radio when it comes on. So why hasn’t she sold more records if radio play is the key?

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t disagree that money is the bottom lineà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s what Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been saying this entire time. Moneyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ or PROFITà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ is the bottom line.

Well, I agree! But I just can’t understand how any of us could possibly know how much any of them have spent on the videos or the album? Also, what is the purpose of saying that one artist must sell more albums to justify paying off the cost of the video and the album? Is it to imply that one artist will owe more money than the other artist? And then what? Not be as successful because he owes more money? As Cook fans, are we supposed to be upset if Cook owes more money than Archie? Sorry, I am trying, but I just don’t understand what you are trying to say soundscene.

These are from Soundscene’s post that suggested that the profit margins are probably different for each David (which I don’t necessarily dispute).

“And Jive/Zomba doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t really spend oodles on album promotionà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’even with their bigger artists like P!nk (sheà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Zomba)”

“I think Jive strategically designed his promotion and album launch to be that way.”

Promotion has been part of the discussion from the beginning. Videos are another promotional tool, for that matter. It’s all relevant to a discussion about sales vs. profits.

One thing to note in the debate about how much money the artists are making is that Cook wrote or co-wrote most of his album and Analog Heart Publishing published the songs with his name on them. (Publishing is where the real money can kick in with hits.) Cook chose the big names he worked with. He must have felt he could afford it.

I think that youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re splitting hairs there, soundscene. Comparing is comparing is comparing. If the Davids arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t comparable, then they arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t comparable. Throwing in a factor here or there to try to make an à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“academicà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  comparison doesnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t make the comparison any more valid.

I actually don’t think we are splitting hairs–I think we just don’t agree as to what I’m thinking of as a comparison. To me, a non-academic, or emotional, comparison would be “Cook sold more so he must be more popular.” That’s an emotional comparison. “Cook probably needs to sell more albums for RCA to make a profit” is a an academic comparison dealing with profit margins. It doesn’t talk about who deserves what or who is better or who is more popular. I wasn’t talking about any of that.

On the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“hit singleà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  point: Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve previously pointed out the Lefsetz letter that has made clear that, despite hit singles, neither Katy Perry nor Pink has set the record sales world on fire. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve heard So What so much that I went from rather liking it to trying to figure out how to fast forward my radio when it comes on. So why hasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t she sold more records if radio play is the key?

P!nk is selling very well. And she’ll go multi-platinum like she has with all her other albums that started out the same way. “So What” is doing its part. She’s pop, too–there’s a fundamental difference in buying patterns based on genre. Hit singles help a lot–some more than others, but they help a lot.

Promotion has been part of the discussion from the beginning. Videos are another promotional tool, for that matter. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s all relevant to a discussion about sales vs. profits.

If you read all my posts you would see that I said I talked about David A.’s promotion because I knew more about it. I didn’t talk about DC’s promotion. Videos are promotion, yes. So are singles. But that’s not the kind of promotion people are talking about now.

soundscene wrote:
I think ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s reasonable to believe that RCA spent more money on DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album and video than Jive spent on DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s album and video. Hence, my original theory that Jive will make a profit with less albums sold.

I could see a scenario where that is possibly so, that RCA spent more money – after all, one of the prizes all these contestants were going for, trying to win, was the great promotion that the winner receives. One of the main reasons I could never buy the “better not to win’ meme.

But at this point, the money, in whatever unknowable amounts, has been spent on the video, and on pressing the album. If Jive will make a profit on less albums sold because they curtailed their expenses…then wouldn’t they make an even bigger profit on more albums sold…since their expense line remains the same?

It doesn’t really sound like a safe business model in this deflated music market….keeping your bottom line low means less albums shipped, to regulate the cost of pressing…which means if there’s a sell-out situation in a store (and I understand this has happened) you don’t even have a second shipment, or a third, ready to go. That would be shortsighted. I would have to respectfully disagree.

As to the promo costs…labels paying cash to get an artist on a show or in a radio spot is easy to say, near impossible to prove, and mostly illegal to do. The industry works on a ‘this for that’ arrangement, where each side has something to offer, each reaps a benefit….and stays within the law.

Also, what is the purpose of saying that one artist must sell more albums to justify paying off the cost of the video and the album?

The purpose is to downplay said artist’s larger album sales. Because if said artist has to sell more albums just to make up for his vastly larger expenditure, than that’s like covering expenses at the bank, not like making a profit.
Am I on the right track here?

I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think a music album is a normal product, where you can compare production and maybe marketing cost with the money you get from sales.

Even if you stay at example with a low budget film and a big Hollywood production, than it maybe true that the money at the box offices is in a higher win zone for the low budget film, but if you include the merchandise, video games and other side business it could be that the Hollywood production gather more money.

And I think it is the same with the music business. There are endorsement deals, paid shows, the tours and merchandise-

To Jolene (I’m not quoting you):

No. And I’m done.

So, academically, you suppose that an artist that you assume has spent more to produce and promote his product needs to sell more product in order to turn the same profit as an artist that you assume has spent less to produce and promote his product? If you want to call that “academic,” feel free, but I tend to think that it’s (1) not academic, more like addition and subtraction, (2) nothing that requires looking at the specific sales of the artists in question, because it is hypothetical in nature and rife with assumptions, and (3) even if one wanted to discuss two artists specifically in this context, you couldn’t without knowing the specific dollars brought in by each on his or her product (and ancillary products, such as endorsements, tour $$, etc.) and the specific costs associated with bringing in those dollars.

So, even if we agree on a hypothetical basis that the gross profit of each David is equal to dollars brought in minus costs, such that a reduction in costs means that fewer dollars must be brought in to achieve the same gross profit, without knowing the concrete numbers at issue, we can’t do a meaningful comparison of their gross profits, or a meaningful conversation as to whether the gross profit of each David is currently or will in the future be satisfactory to their particular labels. We simply do not have the background information necessary to have that conversation.

Unless we make assumptions. Which would be flawed, making any discussion of them flawed and hypothetical.

Oh, and re: Pink: So, the hit single is meaningless in terms of her sales to date, which are similar to what she’s done in the past? And, regardless of the effect (or lack thereof) that the hit single is having on her sales, you anticipate that she will ultimately have the same success that she’s had in the past? All righty then.

Oh for the love. This again? Season 8, where are you? LMAO. Sigh.

Ok, let’s see. RCA did not spend so much money that Cook has to auction his firstborn on the black market to break even. Whatever was spent was definitely shared between RCA and 19E, and label promotional stuff its typically 50/50 between the label and the artist. The only things he got that Archie didn’t get are a Walmart Soundcheck & SNL. SNL does not cost. Archie got a lot of Itunes promo as well, Cook’s may have been a little more. Archie even got the dreaded spam emails. LOL. The “name” songwriter thing is debatable since Archie was no slouch himself in that department (Midi Mafia? Kara Diogardi?), and Cook’s “names” that are outside the idol norms are all from the late 90s. The only one I think is still a top songwriter is the guy from the Go-Go Dolls. The producer certainly cost more. That’s about it. The videos might have some kind of difference. So what are we up to now… and additional day of video, a name producer, and a Walmart Soundcheck? I don’t know if Walmart costs or not. That doesn’t sound like Cook would have to sell a ton of additional albums to break even to me. I think its all much ado about nothing.

I would chalk this up to Cook being in an album driven genre, which may make people more willing to spend a bit – emphasis on the bit – more to promote him. But I doubt its enough for anyone to get excited about, no matter which side of the fence you are on.

What I took out of this was that yes Cook does need to sell a few more albums BUT I don’t think what she said was mean spirited in the least. Soundscene answered a speculative business question with speculative facts. Archie’s next video will probably cost more than his last one so therefore , he will need to sell well with that single…. that is just the way it is. I’m not meaning anything badly to him by saying that. This made me sad tonight.

Both of these guys are doing well so far, and I’ll bet their respective labels are pleased with the way things are going. I don’t think either label gives a rat’s butt who outsells who, as long as their music is selling. Both Davids have sales goals that are independent of each other and have different expectation levels. For example, I doubt Jive will kick Archie to the curb if his album were to sell one million and Cook’s were to sell two million. The important thing is that these two make money for their labels and as long as they’re doing that, they’re fine.

This discussion is interesting. I am in no way an expert in business or the music business but I have eyes and ears and a semi logical pattern of thought and those three things allow me to deduce that Cook’s costs are much higher than Archie’s. My darn annoyingly logical thought pattern further deduces that it will take Cook moving more units of his products to pay back his label.
Soundscene sounds like he knows something about the music business but the logic of his posts is what appeals to me.
ETA, do not mean to assume ss is a male

Im sure RCA and JIVE dont care how either does… But I’ll bet the 19 cares if cook does well….. They need their successful winner.
—————

Luckeee, soundscene is a she

This made me sad tonight.

There’s a subtext that is outside the actual discussion, and soundscene stepped right in the middle of it. The “Cook is getting insane promotion/RCA is desperate/they are bankrupting 19 and they had to drop Jordin/Cook will never see a dime because they have to push him and his crappy single so hard” thing has been buzzing around the internet for a while, and as you can see there’s a bit of a sore spot with some of his fans over it.

I really, really can’t wait for season 8.

The important thing is that these two make money for their labels and as long as theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re doing that, theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re fine.

That is EXACTLY what soundscene was saying. Bottom line both are succeeding so far thank goodness.

And I think it is the same with the music business. There are endorsement deals, paid shows, the tours and merchandise-

And music publishing. There are several ways to make a profit. Ultimately, single sales and radio play are simply a promotional tool in order to sell cds and all of the above. There is very little monetary profit from single sales which is why many more established artists are coming to that realization and are more willing to offer free downloads of their initial singles for a time.

Rationalizing comparisons without real data is what we in marketing call “shape-shifting”. It’s anyone’s guess what shape we’ll be in a year from now, so it’s a lot of spin and conjecture when there is no comprehensive data and the economic ground is so soft. We don’t even know the profits from itunes throughout the entire season, which could have been extremely high.

UGH. You have no idea what a replay of season 5 this is.

As soon as one Idol outsells another, then the whole “Oh yeah? So WHAT if your Idol sold more. MY Idol will make MORE Money/Recoup faster than YOUR Idol” wars begin. After that it’s the “My Idol’s tour will turn a bigger profit than YOUR Idol’s tour.” To be followed by, “MY Idol will last longer in the business than YOUR Idol.”

At this point, I could write up a “Stages of Idol Wardom” and it would be spot on every year.

It makes me long for time to fly and Season 8 to get here STAT.

So everybody, would you please STOP? How about a guidelines refresher:

http://mjsbigblog.com/?page_id=1172

There are too many posts to delete here, so here’s the deal:

Stop baiting the other side
Don’t question the motives of your fellow posters
Don’t mock your fellow posters
Reel back the anger
NO finger-wagging or chastising your fellow posters.

As a person with an economics degree, I agree with the basic premise that profit, not sales, is the key measure. The problem, as in all economic analyses, is in the assumptions. It may be logical to imply that perhaps Cook’s expenses are higher (tho I am not as confident about this as some), but we do not know the degree to which they are higher. their careers are both so new, with many more expenses and promotions to come. There are far too many variables to say anything more specific than profit is what matters. I would disagree that an analysis built on so many assumptions and generalizations is somehow more logical.

I always think of the old joke about an economist, a priest, and a scientist marooned on an island. They have a can of food separating them from starvation. If you ask the scientist what to do, he will say something about searching for materials to pry it open. If you ask the priest, he might suggest prayer. If you ask the economist, he will will start with, “First, you assume a can opener.” OK, I know I’m not a good joke teller, but you get the idea.

IndyMuse just said what I was trying to say, but in such a less convoluted fashion….

Indymuse: accountants have a joke that would seem to apply also. The question is “what does 2 plus 2 equal”. The mathematician answers “exactly 2 plus exactly 2 = exactly 4″, the engineer answers, “approximately 2 plus approximately 2 = approximately 4″, the accountant answers “what do you want it to?”

We lawyers could come up with an answer on that question, Jlyn, but it would cost you $300 an hour for us to research and draft the memo containing the answer.

luckeee55

Out of all of the post here I think yours is the easiest for me to understand.

The higher the cost it takes to produce a product the more you would need to sell to make a return.

Kinda like when you hold a raffle. You have to sell so many tickets to pay for your prize and after the prize is paid for the rest is profit.

Personally, I enjoy reading all the posts in the headlines here that interest me. Whether I agree or disagree to all or part of what is shared, I do know that MJ’s posters put a lot of thought into what they write, especially in the more intense discussions, and I appreciate that. I would never want to feel that anyone’s opinion wasn’t welcomed. MJ’s posters always try to be quite conversational, informative, and civil. Actually, the longer, opinionated (not argumentive but opinionated) threads are among my favorites. This is one outstanding blog imo.

We lawyers could come up with an answer on that question, Jlyn, but it would cost you $300 an hour for us to research and draft the memo containing the answer.

And it would depend on whether the first two, the second two or the four was your client.

Yea, I just kinda have to read over some to find the ones that are in layman terms. Then I go oh yea, got it.

Lolz. I totally missed season 5, and the Clay vs. Ruben wars were not my bag, so this is all new to me. Oy vey. Looks like the one thing we all agree on is that Cookie and Archuleta are very different artists in different genres with different labels and different marketing schemes. Thus, I would maintain due to these intrinsic differences, their careers really can’t be directly compared. And to that I say halle-freakin-lujah and pass the offering plate.

Few other thoughts…The vid for Light On might have cost more than Crush, but I don’t think it was a lot more. This is no Thriller with the make up magic of that famous Hollywood dude with the creature shop and a bunch of dancing zombie extras, or Weapon of CHoice with Christopher Walken flying around thanks to the magic of Spike Jonze, or even She Will Be Loved starring Mrs. John Travolta. I actually think it was relatively cheaply made and the one big expense was probably Isham and MAYBE the b or c-list actress who played the lead. They went with a basic storyline not requiring a lot of set changes or fancy wardrobe expenditures. The nice play on light and dark in the parts that showed Cook and pals was achieved by shooting them on a small college football field at night. No pricey effects or anything, yet it looks cool. I think the idea was to use a proven director with a good eye for the schmexy artsy angles of DC and his merry band of hot musicians to ensure that it was very well shot and edited, but if you break it down…there’s a lot more they could have done with the video and didn’t, probably at least partially because of the budgetary restraints. Thanks to Isham and his team’s talent, the finished product is slick and professional (and DC looks sufficiently schmexy), but it’s really not all that ambitious conceptually.

As for Jive vs. RCA…I think Jive spent a chunk of its moola on big time radio payola (illegal my butt, I think it still goes on in some way or another, once a knoller…) to quickly shrug off any second place “loser” stigma and jump start Archuleta’s positive buzz with massive introductory radio play, whereas RCA spent a bunch of bank on bringing in a big name producer like Cavallo hoping to impress the industry types and help 19 sell Cook as an A-list talent worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence with the major players, kind of a self fufilling prophesy type of thing. Different approaches to label spending, six of one, half a dozen of another. For the moment, IMO, both seem to be working. YMMV.

Well, no, smartcookie. [Pauses to look innocent and ethical.] It would depend on whether the legal research had indicated that there was an exception to the common law rule that 2 plus 2 = 4. By the way, did I mention that the $300/hour rate also applies to the time spent doing legal research? Because it totally does.

Good point, sunchick. Also, excellent use of the word “schmexy.”

Lolz folfan and smartcookie. Sunchick I agree with a lot of your post but I wanted to point out that even with Cavallo producing we have no idea what that means in terms of costs unless we know if the money he (or any of the songwritings partners) are getting money up front, back end points, or some combination thereof. Unless you have read the contracts the idea that anyone knows, or can even speculate “factually” about costs is nonsensical for either David. I think you are spot on in the self-fulfilling prophesy strategy that RCA and Idol have with Cook. (As the new Idol commercial exemplifies.)

I find it difficult to estimate how much a label ends up spending on an artist especially in the setting of a competition like American Idol. However, when dealing with a new artist, I think the goal for the first album is not to make a profit from record sales (which I heard is very difficult to do anyway) but instead to lay the foundation for the artist. If one artist sells two million records, and the other sells 500,000 but the artist who sold 500,000 records actually made a slightly higher profit due to less promotion, I still think that the artist selling more is in a better position (even if they end up owing the record company). This artist now has a much bigger fanbase and is in a position to sell more concert tickets (which is where the real profits are), acquire bigger endorsement deals and possibly win more high profile awards. All of this leads to a lot more money than one could ever make from album profits alone. Secondly, the cost for producing the next album will be a lot less because less promotion will be needed. So I’m thrilled that both Davids are being promoted as well as they are and really have a hard time seeing the downside to lots of promotion, unless the general public gets sick of seeing them, which has not happened yet.

Jive seem to be pretty smart doing that and money well spent if it did cost them. With the Radio payola thing. It worked pretty much. Archuleta is one of the most talked about young artist in Pop right now. Good for him.

I am not in on the Rock side of music so I do not hear as much about Cook. My group is Hip Hop based. We do a lot of Cheer activities and Dance. So I do not hear as much about Cook. I think RCA knows what they need to do to make it all work out for Cook.

Promotion is promotion the labels do whatever they need to do to make sure they succeed and still hopefully make a profit. It’s a gamble until you turn that profit.

UGH. You have no idea what a replay of season 5 this is.

I remember the season five fanwars well. I guess we all knew this would happen once Cook’s first week sales totals came in. The fans of whoever sold more gloat and predict doom and gloom for the other guy, fans of the other guy get defensive, fans on either side find new ways to crap on the other guy to make their favorite look better in comparison, pissing contest continues.

lol this is so entertaining.

First week sales means squat, period. Talk to me in six months.

With all due respect, shell29, I believe that you can scour this site and you won’t find any DC fans gloating about sales differentials or predicting DA failing. Obviously, I can’t speak for anyone else, and I will not guarantee that there aren’t DC fans doing precisely that somewhere on the internet, but I will tell you this much: I don’t care how DA does. I just don’t. Seems like a nice kid. DC likes him and would probably get a kick out of DA succeeding. But really? I just care if DC succeeds. So, I want to see DC’s numbers this week, and the following week, and yes, months down the line. I don’t think that DC and DA are particularly comparable, and I don’t think that it is an either/or on success—both, either, or neither could succeed, and their labels will not keep or toss one of them because of their comparative performances.

Very entertaining thread.

Someone was talking on page one about David A and future albums. I read on Fansofdavid that they have already planned a regular album and a Christmas album a year from now. Also, he is planning to solo tour starting around the spring. Of course those plans could change, but that is it for now.

First week sales means squat, period. Talk to me in six months.

Yeah, and in 6 months, no matter who’s ahead, the lower selling side will say “record sales mean squat. talk to me in ten years. then we will see who is still around”. LOL. Then in ten years, one side will be saying “my guy is an artist, he has more cred, your guy gets no respect” so on and so forth. It. Never. Ends.

Good for you to think they will be around in 10 years, or anyone will care in 6 months.

ianamy, Methinks my point just missed you by a mile. Or that was sarcasm I missed by a mile. lol. But no worries.

Time for a commercial break:

My dogà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s better than your dog
My dogà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s better than yours
My dogà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s better à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‹cuz he eats Ken-L-Ration
My dogà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s better than yours

Carry on… :smile_wp:

edit: I gave you more chances than I should have…

but but lisa… my dog is better! *sniff*

awww pats frog. It prolly is betta than my yorkie, but NA my pug! LOL

I wish both David’s great careers.

So, now…we can get back to discussing the numbers, right? .

My miniature schnauzer is the best. He’s almost 17 (119 in dog years) and still going. :clap_tb:

Can we discuss what we think will be next week’s number’s? Are there any predictor site’s for that?

With all due respect, shell29, I believe that you can scour this site and you wonà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t find any DC fans gloating about sales differentials or predicting DA failing. Obviously, I canà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t speak for anyone else, and I will not guarantee that there arenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t DC fans doing precisely that somewhere on the internet, but I will tell you this much: I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t care how DA does. I just donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t. Seems like a nice kid. DC likes him and would probably get a kick out of DA succeeding. But really? I just care if DC succeeds. So, I want to see DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numbers this week, and the following week, and yes, months down the line. I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think that DC and DA are particularly comparable, and I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think that it is an either/or on successà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ both, either, or neither could succeed, and their labels will not keep or toss one of them because of their comparative performances.

I didn’t say anything about Cook fans. I said that the fans of whoever outsold the other would gloat (and I should clarify and say some fans, not all). If that had been Archie, some of his fans would be gloating. It just so happens that Cook is the one who had the better opening week sales, and yes, some of his fans are doing what I spoke about in my previous post. Not here, because MJ won’t have it. But elsewhere? Definately, just like some Archie fans were gloating and predicting doom and gloom when Light On didn’t sell as well as Crush in its opening week.

OK.. I’m going to post this and hope it doesn’t start anything. I’m actually interested in this as a marketing question with regard to music sales not a fanwar thing. I’ve been online most of the day doing way too much Christmas shopping when I noticed that Cook was priced at 12.99 on Amazon. He is holding up at #5 on their physical CD list -which seems pretty good to me – but they have been priced at 9.99. Amazon seems to be a good outlet for him saleswise so I thought the 12.99 move might be problematic. At this point the superfans have their copies. It seems like presale would be a better point to charge more to the fans who would buy regardless. It didn’t seem like a good move for Amazon or Cook. (Although maybe they are trying to push their regular customers to their download site where it’s still 9.99.)

Which brings me to another price point/question. I think Jive is making a mistake keeping the deluxe album of Archie on itunes. The superfans bought the deluxe album for 12.99 but I think that is too steep for the casual fan to risk on an unknown artist based off one song. I know there is a 9.99 version of the album but you have to search for it. The deluxe version is the one that comes up on the top albums – the 9.99 version doesn’t. If most itunes users are as lazy as I am (and I think they are) they won’t go search. There is a big difference in completing my album at 12.00 and 9.00. One million people downloaded Crush, only tens of thousands have downloaded the album. I think that Jive is leaving casual fan sales of the ablum on the table. (I think one of the reasons that Cook did so well on itunes for album sales is that if you downloaded ToML and Light On – and hundreds of thousands did – you could – and still can- complete my album for 8.01.)

To those who have watched sales in the past, does price matter appreciably?

Don’t AI winners get cash to burn on the record deal as part of the prize (that IS the point of the competition right)? And this money comes from their contract with 19 (Simon Fuller) right, and not the record company? Which means that Cook and RCA could spend all of that on getting the best producers, studios, band, promo etc etc. And this is a drop in the bucket for 19 (Simon Fuller) compared to the returns they get from AI tv show itself. And more, 19 (Simon Fuller) gets to make more money off Cook by getting the exclusive management deal and a cut of whatever sponsorship / other deals he gets in future.

a. So Cook wins because he gets money to burn on getting the best production values and promotions and management. The only problem for winners would be how much artistic control they’re given. Given that Cook got 10 songs (and the requisite songwriting royalties in perpetuity, to say nothing of performance royalties), into his album, I’d say he’s in the gravy. It’s like he gets 10 cents every time TOML / LO is played. But he’ll get 10 plus 25 cents everytime Declaration or his other songs are played. If he can get a successful tour to fly, he’s on his way to making his millions.

b. The record company (RCA) wins because they get an artist with (not just the chops but) a ready audience without having to spend a bomb. (In fact they’ll get paid the related album production fees from the Prize package, and then get recording royalties ad infinitum)

c. 19 wins because they’re rolling a tiny part of massive profits from a tv show into an artist in whom a sizable audience has invested in. Plus they get first dibs on a cut of every contract Cook makes for the next X? years. And that management contract, oy. Just think of the 20% they get from all his potential touring and sponsorhip deals.

d. Cook’s co(song)writers win because they get to spend a couple of hours with a young artist with substantial public exposure who already has a stable of songs and do some polishing without any of the heavy lifting, and then get a co-write credit with probably equal shares of backend royalties. I don’t think for a minute any of them get paid upfront, apart from the one song Cookie didn’t have a hand in – yep Light On. Even then, Brian Howe might want an upfront fee, but Cornell is a singer-songwriter (like Maida, Krevaziuk, Rzeznik, Injected et al). Royalties tend to mean more to singer-songwriters than an upfront payment (not to say some won’t get both, but the backend means more especially among whom they regard as peers. Cook has mentioned being amazed at being treated as a peer by his co-writers). On a side note, Cornell will never admit it but he got a huge public boost by Cook’s rendition of Billie Jean. I’m still waiting for Micheal Jackson to b**** about it!

I guess I don’t get why there’s an angle that RCA would even lose any money on Cookie, when they didn’t put up much to start with.

19 on the other hand, stand to make money off winners not just from album sales. I suspect their management deals (not much discussed but bring in a LOT of money for their outlay – Simon Fuller making some calls LOL) contribute to the investment in the artist, eg they get a cut of sketchers / gibson / whatever money Cook got from the AMA people for that little gig etc.

After blathering on like that, I’m not claiming I know anything about all this. I just read / surf a lot, that’s all. *shrugs*

Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t AI winners get cash to burn on the record deal as part of the prize (that IS the point of the competition right)?

Actually, now that you mentioned it, do we know what exactly a contestant gets for winning American Idol? We know that the winner gets a major recording contract, but since many non-winners get that anyway, what’s so special about that?

We know that the winner gets a major recording contract, but since many non-winners get that anyway, whatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s so special about that?

Well, the way I understand it is that the winner wins a major recording contract – the kind that A-list stars get in terms of production values and exposure (the holy grail for artists, rather than $X million(s)), but the funding ultimately is something between 19 and the record company and for confidentiality reasons will probably never be made public. Looking at the promo and handling that Cook has gotten so far, I don’t think we can argue that they are shortchanging him, although we may not all agree on the exact steps we may have wanted them to take. The point that I was trying to make is that the prize is ultimately from 19. It’s not from RCA’s coffers. At least for this round. If Cook sticks with RCA for his next album, i’d be interested in those terms coz that would be a whole different ballgame.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve been online most of the day doing way too much Christmas shopping when I noticed that Cook was priced at 12.99 on Amazon. He is holding up at #5 on their physical CD list -which seems pretty good to me – but they have been priced at 9.99. Amazon seems to be a good outlet for him saleswise so I thought the 12.99 move might be problematic. At this point the superfans have their copies. It seems like presale would be a better point to charge more to the fans who would buy regardless. It didnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t seem like a good move for Amazon or Cook. (Although maybe they are trying to push their regular customers to their download site where ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s still 9.99.)

I have got the feeling that is a strategy from Amazon.
They sell a newly released item on the first days of release cheaper than everywhere else and hope to catch the customers, who want it as soon as possible for the smallest price.
And they also expect that these customers buy also other items, so it is a win situation for Amazon.

When did music become all about money? :neutral_wp:

For thousands of years, people have made music because they love it, and people have listened because they love it.

Everything in this country has become about money and profit.

As a DC fan, I hope he has a long happy career, and gets to make lots of great music that listeners can enjoy. Sure I hope he does well on the charts, it’s a thrill to watch it happen, but when it turns into a full-time business trying to figure it all out, I lose interest.

No offense to those who enjoy crunching the numbers, but when it comes to how much the videos cost and how much profit everyone is making, it almost seems like prying. I’m sure these things matter to the Davids and their accountants, but should it matter to fans? I remember when being a fan meant listening to music, dancing to it, dreaming to it, making love to it, and going to concerts – not trying to figure out how much profit artists were making.

I just assumed my favorite artists were making a decent living if they kept making records. Call me a fool. But I have enough stress keeping track of my own budget, without worrying about a celebrity’s. That’s their concern not mine. :cool1_tb:

That said, I hope DC sells 125,000 this week, because that will make him happy and more people will discover the magic that is his cd. Does it make me a hypocrite? I can’t say for sure.

I haven’t watched AI before this year, so I do not know about those fanwars, but after looking back at some of the initial sales of idols and where they are now, I think it would be wise for all fanbases to be careful about gloating about any numbers at this point. There are no guarantees for any of these idols in the future. This is a difficult marathon, not a sprint.

oceana- I agree about the money and profit. It kind of takes the joy out of the music sometimes.