Comments on: Idol Billboard Update for Issue 1/17/09 – January Doldrums Set In http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm American Idol - I Love This Cheesy Show Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:45:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Michelle http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179228 Michelle Sat, 10 Jan 2009 06:16:23 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179228 Thanks everyone. I guess I have to be grateful they push the kids hard to release in November even with all the strain on them and the compromises they have to make due to time. Thanks everyone. I guess I have to be grateful they push the kids hard to release in November even with all the strain on them and the compromises they have to make due to time.

]]> By: FolkFan http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179216 FolkFan Sat, 10 Jan 2009 05:18:36 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179216 Thank you so much, MJ and Kirsten. And LadyM, I hate the percentage decreases but love knowing them, because it let's you know what you can expect. Big drops don't necessarily mean anything at this time of the year---it's all a question of how you bounce back. Thank you so much, MJ and Kirsten. And LadyM, I hate the percentage decreases but love knowing them, because it let’s you know what you can expect. Big drops don’t necessarily mean anything at this time of the year—it’s all a question of how you bounce back.

]]> By: jpfan http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179205 jpfan Sat, 10 Jan 2009 04:30:33 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179205 Very few artists do release albums right after Xmas. The advantage to doing so is you could possibly have the #1 album of the week with sales of 60K or so. That wouldn't put you in the Top 20 albums in the week before Christmas. And your album will get more attention because they isn't much competition. Obviously the best time to release an album is mid/end November. That's when you get the full benefit of the Xmas shopping season. And that's when almost all the Idol albums are released. Except for Taylor (Dec) and Kat (Jan) and sales suffered because of it. Although in the end, it sort of evens itself out. To have superstar sales, you have to stay on the BB200 for more than a year or two. I think Daughtry is moving into year three as we speak. Very few artists do release albums right after Xmas. The advantage to doing so is you could possibly have the #1 album of the week with sales of 60K or so. That wouldn’t put you in the Top 20 albums in the week before Christmas. And your album will get more attention because they isn’t much competition.

Obviously the best time to release an album is mid/end November. That’s when you get the full benefit of the Xmas shopping season. And that’s when almost all the Idol albums are released. Except for Taylor (Dec) and Kat (Jan) and sales suffered because of it. Although in the end, it sort of evens itself out.
To have superstar sales, you have to stay on the BB200 for more than a year or two. I think Daughtry is moving into year three as we speak.

]]> By: mac http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179191 mac Sat, 10 Jan 2009 03:53:28 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179191 I just can't imagine any artist that would want to release an album during this time. Why wouldn't they wait? Did any of the idols release their first albums during this time? I somehow am remembering Katharine released sometime during this time frame???? I just can’t imagine any artist that would want to release an album during this time. Why wouldn’t they wait? Did any of the idols release their first albums during this time? I somehow am remembering Katharine released sometime during this time frame????

]]> By: Suzanne http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179188 Suzanne Sat, 10 Jan 2009 03:49:45 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179188 Man. What a bummer. Man. What a bummer.

]]> By: ladymadonna http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179141 ladymadonna Fri, 09 Jan 2009 23:53:03 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179141 <blockquote>So I realize January is especially bad because of holiday hangover, but when does the sales freefall start to ease?</blockquote> I've posted this here before I think, but maybe not all the way into March. Basically I took a look at the albums that were in the top-10 going into the first sales week of January last year, and then tracked the average weekly decline rate for those same ten albums over the next two months. (I focused on these ten because I was trying to do some rough predictions on how Cook might trend after entering the New Year in the top 10). Here's how the weekly increase/decline percentages looked last year: Sales week ending ... Average increase/decline 12/30/2007 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -62% 01/06/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -54% 01/13/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -31% 01/20/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -10% 01/27/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^2% 02/03/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^4% 02/10/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^10% 02/17/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^24% 02/24/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -17% 03/02/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^5% You'll notice a nice, encouraging bump mid-February due to the Grammy-effect (which not everyone is going to see obviously). But then there's usually another steep drop back before things slowly start to climb again into March. You can see, however, that it's a pretty deep hole to climb out of by that point. Do note that these percentages are incremental. So if you started week 1 with 100K in sales, you would have 38K the next week, and then 17K the following, etc. But these are also just averages and not of the whole chart - just a select subset of albums from last year. But the entire chart pretty much follows this general trend, and not surprisingly, the 2009 week-over-week declines are looking even steeper than last year. So this is all just back o' the envelope, lets steel ourselves for how bad things might look this spring, kind of math. All the standard caveats apply here.

So I realize January is especially bad because of holiday hangover, but when does the sales freefall start to ease?

I’ve posted this here before I think, but maybe not all the way into March. Basically I took a look at the albums that were in the top-10 going into the first sales week of January last year, and then tracked the average weekly decline rate for those same ten albums over the next two months. (I focused on these ten because I was trying to do some rough predictions on how Cook might trend after entering the New Year in the top 10). Here’s how the weekly increase/decline percentages looked last year:

Sales week ending … Average increase/decline

12/30/2007 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -62%
01/06/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -54%
01/13/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -31%
01/20/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -10%
01/27/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^2%
02/03/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^4%
02/10/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^10%
02/17/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^24%
02/24/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ -17%
03/02/2008 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦ ^5%

You’ll notice a nice, encouraging bump mid-February due to the Grammy-effect (which not everyone is going to see obviously). But then there’s usually another steep drop back before things slowly start to climb again into March. You can see, however, that it’s a pretty deep hole to climb out of by that point.

Do note that these percentages are incremental. So if you started week 1 with 100K in sales, you would have 38K the next week, and then 17K the following, etc. But these are also just averages and not of the whole chart – just a select subset of albums from last year. But the entire chart pretty much follows this general trend, and not surprisingly, the 2009 week-over-week declines are looking even steeper than last year.

So this is all just back o’ the envelope, lets steel ourselves for how bad things might look this spring, kind of math. All the standard caveats apply here.

]]> By: Hazehel http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179140 Hazehel Fri, 09 Jan 2009 23:52:45 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179140 <blockquote>Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m bad with numbers, what does the HDD prediction mean in terms of average percentage drops from this week? </blockquote> Using a bit of quick mental arithmatics, it looks to be 30-40% which is roughly what I expect they'll be extrapolating (or is that interpolating?) from previous years figures. So if you are thinking about the numbers for David Cook, then we are probably looking at 19-22K if the same applies, although as I've said before, I expect him to do better. Fingers crossed.

Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m bad with numbers, what does the HDD prediction mean in terms of average percentage drops from this week?

Using a bit of quick mental arithmatics, it looks to be 30-40% which is roughly what I expect they’ll be extrapolating (or is that interpolating?) from previous years figures. So if you are thinking about the numbers for David Cook, then we are probably looking at 19-22K if the same applies, although as I’ve said before, I expect him to do better. Fingers crossed.

]]> By: JudyOhio http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179119 JudyOhio Fri, 09 Jan 2009 22:01:30 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179119 Is there any way to know how many digital downloads ALTNOY had last week? Is there any way to know how many digital downloads ALTNOY had last week?

]]> By: tinawina http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179117 tinawina Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:51:57 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179117 Michelle, in theory its supposed to start inching back up around the end of January/early February. I THINK things are suppose to be back in a more normal pre-christmas sales state in March/April. But I'm not sure about that last part, I'm still learning! Michelle, in theory its supposed to start inching back up around the end of January/early February. I THINK things are suppose to be back in a more normal pre-christmas sales state in March/April. But I’m not sure about that last part, I’m still learning!

]]> By: Michelle http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179116 Michelle Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:46:48 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179116 So I realize January is especially bad because of holiday hangover, but when does the sales freefall start to ease? So I realize January is especially bad because of holiday hangover, but when does the sales freefall start to ease?

]]> By: Jolene http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179110 Jolene Fri, 09 Jan 2009 20:54:12 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179110 January. What can you do about it? Wait for February, I guess. I'm bad with numbers, what does the HDD prediction mean in terms of average percentage drops from this week? January. What can you do about it?
Wait for February, I guess.

I’m bad with numbers, what does the HDD prediction mean in terms of average percentage drops from this week?

]]> By: SashaB http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179108 SashaB Fri, 09 Jan 2009 20:45:01 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179108 Thanks MJ. Way to go! Congrats to the Davids. Thanks MJ. Way to go! Congrats to the Davids.

]]> By: cochem http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-179103 cochem Fri, 09 Jan 2009 20:37:44 +0000 http://mjsbigblog.com/idol-billboard-update-for-issue-11709-january-doldrums-set-in.htm#comment-179103 HDD for sales this week... Looks like more of the same YOUR WEAKEND TOP 10 CHART PREVIEW: With everyone headed back to work and school this week, next week's Top 10 looks more than a little bleak, with a collective total somewhere around 400. While that figure represents a drop of 50k (11.1%) over the corresponding charts in 2008 and 2007, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a precipitous drop from 2006, when the Top 10 for the week ending 1/15 racked up north of 650k. So weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re looking at a likely decline of 250k (38.5%). Ouch. Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 60-65k Kanye West (Roc-A-Fella/IDJ) 50-55k Nickelback (Roadrunner) 45-50k Beyonce (Music World/Columbia) 45-50k Twilight (Chop Shop/Atlantic) 40-45k Britney Spears (Jive/ZLG) 35-40k Keyshia Cole (Geffen) 30-35k Jamie Foxx (J/RMG) 25-30k Now 29 (UMe) 25-30k All Wrapped Up (Hollywood) 25-30k http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi HDD for sales this week… Looks like more of the same

YOUR WEAKEND TOP 10 CHART PREVIEW: With everyone headed back to work and school this week, next week’s Top 10 looks more than a little bleak, with a collective total somewhere around 400. While that figure represents a drop of 50k (11.1%) over the corresponding charts in 2008 and 2007, ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a precipitous drop from 2006, when the Top 10 for the week ending 1/15 racked up north of 650k. So weà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢re looking at a likely decline of 250k (38.5%). Ouch.

Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 60-65k
Kanye West (Roc-A-Fella/IDJ) 50-55k
Nickelback (Roadrunner) 45-50k
Beyonce (Music World/Columbia) 45-50k
Twilight (Chop Shop/Atlantic) 40-45k
Britney Spears (Jive/ZLG) 35-40k
Keyshia Cole (Geffen) 30-35k
Jamie Foxx (J/RMG) 25-30k
Now 29 (UMe) 25-30k
All Wrapped Up (Hollywood) 25-30k

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi

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