Idol Billboard Update for Issue 11/29/08

Congrats to Kisten and MJ for being quote everywhere… you guys rules…

Grat week for Archie… I hope his sells don ´t fall to much this week and that everything go well in the future… Go Archie, Go Jive, Go Azzof…

Congrats to MJ and Kirsten for becoming AUTHORITIES! ha!!

Congrats especially to David Archuleta. What a great start!! Really happy for him. Years and years and years ahead of great music and beautiful success.

I have a question about either David releasing a single in the next few weeks. Does it make any sense to release something before Christmas? Would it get any radio play since many stations will be switching to holiday music?

I would want to hear the new single and be frustrated while listening to the Chipmunks, dogs barking jingle bells, or grandma getting run over by a reindeer.

Jan, hmm. I’m no expert, but most of the top 40 and rocks stations in my area don’t switch to holiday music exclusively. Some of the adult contemporary stations definitely do. But I would think both Davids should be able to score airplay on Top 40 (both Davids) and rock stations (Cook).

Kirsten and MJ keep this blog chugging along with the best information and stats. It is the place to be if you are serious or not so serious about anything Idol. Thanks a ton ladies! You deserve all of the shout outs because this is an extraordinary blog!

ETA:

Congrats to David Archuleta on a great debut. I am looking forward to seeing what the future holds for him, also looking forward to Crush going platinum this week as well. He’s got alot to celebrate.

Kudos to the Magic Rainbow too!

Does it make any sense to release something before Christmas? Would it get any radio play since many stations will be switching to holiday music?

Well, it wouldn’t be a good time to release if one was hoping to become the next AC hit, but Pop, Rhythmic, Rock, etc don’t generally go to non-stop Christmas songs until Christmas day.

Singles have a life cycle. The life cycle varies from format to format (e.g. lives are very long on AC and short on Pop), but there appears to be a fairly typical growth pattern for most songs. There will be a hit or two that immediately goes to the top of the charts, but most take a while to get there. And after a song has been on a station for a certain length of time, it gets phased out (with the odd spin here in there in the future). Also, it seems that if you have a song falling down the charts, it almost seems easier to get spins for a new song. You can almost hear the program director thinking, I can’t play old song from Artist A very much anymore, maybe people want to hear his new song.

So, if you have a song that’s ready to start tumbling in November/December, I think it’s better to replace the song then rather than wait until January. It will take a while for the song to climb up the chart (say it’s gaining 700 spins a week on Pop. That’s a lot, but it will still take it 5 weeks to reach top 20 and 8 weeks to reach top 10 at that rate). So, start the song of in December and it will be all over the charts in January. Start the song in January, and you have to wait until February/March before the song is everywhere. If your first single fell off the charts in early December and you don’t have another hit until March, your going to have trouble moving CDs in January…which is a tough time to move CDs at the best of time.

Here are some of the big names going for ads before Christmas:
Kanye West – Heartles
Ne-Yo – Mad
Pink – Sober
The Fray – You Found Me
Keri Hilsen – Turnin’ Me On (featuring Lil Wayne)
Mims – Move
Ryan Leslie _ How was it Supposed to Be
Taylor Swift – White Horse
Staind – All I want
Beck – Youthless
Ryan Adams – Magick
Akon – I’m so Paid (featuring Lil Wayne)

There are no songs scheduled to go for adds in AC…

Congratulations to you, MJ and Kirsten. You ladies are awesome! Congratulations to Archie on his album debuting at #2. He’s got quite a future ahead of him. And congratulations to Cook on his album which is expected to sell a whopping 300k (or thereabouts).

If I recall correctly, I believe it was announced that Archie would release his second single on December 9th. Is that not still true? I noticed he wasn’t on your list. Did the changing of the song from TMH to ALTNOY cause a delay? Given the criteria you enumerated, would you agree that December would be a good time for Archie to release his new single or does Crush still have enough life in it to carry the album through to January?

I’m not surprised you go a shout out. You do an amazing job. I thought you were great at the MTV round table earlier this year. You go girl! Congrats!

Also, it seems that if you have a song falling down the charts, it almost seems easier to get spins for a new song

Since Light On is still climbing the Top 40 and HAC charts with a bullet, does it make sense to release a new David Cook single before the holidays?

If I recall correctly, I believe it was announced that Archie would release his second single on December 9th. Is that not still true?

Yes, it is still true. AllAccess now lists “A Little Too Not Over You” as the single Archie is releasing on December 9th. I just didn’t list him because we were talking about the Davids, so I thought I would list other artists in the “real” music biz.

Given the criteria you enumerated, would you agree that December would be a good time for Archie to release his new single or does Crush still have enough life in it to carry the album through to January?

I think it’s a good idea to release the new single in December. I remember thinking back in September that Jive was going to have to drop a new single in the late November/December time-frame because “Crush” was rising a little too fast. “Tattoo” had slower growth so it peaked later. “Crush” reached 12 on the Pop charts during the week of October 20th, while “Tattoo” reached that level on November 26th (and of course, continued to rise and peaked higher). “Crush” is currently losing spins and falling down the charts. If they don’t replace it soon, he won’t be getting many spins in January (although, at this point, I’m sure Jive has stopped pushing “Crush” and might have been able to keep it higher a bit longer).

I also think that Jive tends to be very good at what it does.

Since Light On is still climbing the Top 40 and HAC charts with a bullet, does it make sense to release a new David Cook single before the holidays?

LOL. I’m probably the wrong person to ask. I don’t think “Light On” is growing fast enough to ever be a legitimate hit. After 8 weeks, it still hasn’t cracked the top 100 airplay. I think it’s plodding. If David Cook hadn’t previously sold a tonne of downloads and convinced radio to play ToML, I would think that he he’s just growing a little more organically (I can’t find a reference earlier than August 9th which is about the 11th week mark, but ToML was 33rd on the overall airplay chart that day). Traditionally, coronation songs have been a hard sell to radio. A song about “Magic Rainbows” would seem to be a tough sell too. But, Cook sold it, so he can sell “dreck”.

I think that you have to frame things in context. If some new indie band who people had never heard of had a song that was selling and getting airplay like “Light On”, that would be considered a pretty big success. Nickelback released “Gotta Be Somebody” and it’s done much better than “Light On” and is considered a flop. Nickelback can do better. (to use a Harry Potter reference) If Hermione Granger gets a B, she’s flopping. If Crabbe or Goyle get a B, break out the champagne. So, there is a context for this. IMO, David Cook isn’t at Nickelback’s level yet, so I don’t think the expectations are that high. But, I aslo don’t think that he’s at the indie band level. He’s already convinced a lot of people to own his songs and radio stations that he’s worth playing. He already had some capital with the buying and spinning public. I think “Light On” should have done better. If the song had have been on the same level of attractiveness as ToML, then I think it would have had similar (though possibly slightly less) success. The fact that it’s not indicates to me that it’s less attractive than ToML. Less attractive than a coronation song. A coronation song about magic rainbows. There has to be something more attractive to the general public on that album than this.

RCA has done about all it can to convince people to buy this song. I can’t really think of what more they can do. At this rate, it’s probably going to peak on the Pop charts in December and it’s not going to peak very high. I don’t think that it’s ever going to gain significant spins on Rock formats. AC seems to be giving it a pass (maybe if it becomes a huge hit elsewhere, they might give it a try in January). HAC is a bright light. The song has a bit of life in it, but I think it might be worth a roll of the dice to pick another song and hope that it convinces people to buy during this Christmas season and have something gaining rather than sinking in January. But, RCA are the professionals (although, I don’t think their track record is quite as god as Jive’s).

If Hermione Granger gets a B, sheà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s flopping. If Crabbe or Goyle get a B, break out the champagne.

lol Kirsten

Kirsten, this morning Ryan Seacrest chose Light On as a Top 40 Breakout Hit. I think it is the first time that he has played it on his show and mentioned it as such. Could that mean that even more Top 40 stations will be adding it on Tuesday?

I have been watching and recording the airplay of Light On using YES.com. Something seems to be happening this week and there was a significant increase in plays and additions of new stations.

Kirsten, this morning Ryan Seacrest chose Light On as a Top 40 Breakout Hit. I think it is the first time that he has played it on his show and mentioned it as such. Could that mean that even more Top 40 stations will be adding it on Tuesday?

It could. Ryan is a bit of a trendsetter. It might mean this thing is on the cusp. It might mean that Fuller threatened Ryan with having to wear a tutu for the opening of American Idol if it did not call it a Breakout Hit. LOL.

Nothing is written in stone. I could very well be wrong. Using the past to predict the future doesn’t always work, but it’s generally a reasonable guideline. There are lots of exceptions to the rule.

The tales of LO’s death are greatly exaggerated. Its audience impression has gone up over 1.6 million in the last two days. [To put it in context, its AI has gone up about 30% in the last week.] That increased AI is split between Top 40 and HAC. It has the #1 spincrease in HAC by a large margin, and is back up to #16 in spincrease and #6 on taking off on Top 40. There was no leak of the Hot 100 Airplay rankings (before recurrents are removed) today, but between the leak on Wednesday morning and the leak on Saturday, it moved up 40 spaces, from #182 to #142. Given that it had another strong increase in AI yesterday, I suspect that it has moved up some more spots; there is a good chance at the rate that it is building AI that it will make the Hot 100 Airplay chart this upcoming week.

AC is pretty much irrelevant to the analysis, IMO. LO is not gaining spins in that format, but pretty much the gains in that format are only going to Xmas songs. There are three non-Xmas songs in the top 40 that are gaining spins—one gained 3, one gained 6, and one gained a whopping 12. All other non-Xmas songs are losing spins, generally in pretty high numbers. And even those modest gains will probably be history next week, given the coming of Thanksgiving. So, we don’t know if AC doesn’t like LO—we can’t know that at this time because of the time of year.

No, LO is not a monster hit, but it is continuing to race up the HAC chart, is showing more strength on Top 40, and was number 1 on the VH1 chart this week as a debut. Honestly, with the exception of that VH1 debut, it’s kind of just acting like the typical rock song, albeit one that is extremely attractive to HAC. Plus, DC is scheduled to be out of commission for the last two weeks of the year. So I don’t imagine that RCA is going to rush out another single in the near term. My guess is that they’ll try to establish the next single to impact at the beginning of the New Year.

ETA: Yeah, I know that LO has not shown any real strength on the rock charts. My guess has been that, as far as rock goes, LO was an attempt to get him an entree on rock, by playing up the Chris Cornell angle. Alice Cooper certainly seemed happy about that connection in that interview that he did with DC the other night, but it hasn’t led to significant spins. My personal guess (and maybe hope) is that they release Declaration next to further soften the resistance to DC at rock stations, and then release Bar-ba-sol as a simulaneous release to rock and alternative.

Congrats to David Archuleta! I am looking forward to much more success and a very long career!

Speaking of songs going up the charts, YEDL (your eyes don’t lie) is quirky, but it is really growing on me and I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes popular. Did anyone see the chipmunk version? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSV0dRxq_y8

Congrats also to David Cook on TOML! I know people tease about “magic Rainbows” but it is really a song that appeals to many people.

I don’t know, I don’t think we should keep comparing Jive with RCA because I think it’s been established they do things completely different. Jive also releases debut singles a lot earlier than RCA.

But, RCA are the professionals (although, I donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t think their track record is quite as god as Jiveà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s).

Totally agree. There’s a reason why Jive artists do so well. IMO they’re much, much better at picking the right singles and getting airplay. It still amazes me how they took Jordin, someone who had a rather small fanbase and very little buzz and turned her into a legitimate pop artist with multiple big hits.

I know LO is doing very well in Hot AC but Hot AC doesn’t sell, and frankly I’d like to see DC be known as more than someone who has big hits on Hot AC and AC.

The tales of LOà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s death are greatly exaggerated.

Nobody is claiming it’s dead. I’m just suggesting that they kill it. A mercy killing. LOL. The song is plodding along and I think it looks set to peak at a bad time and not very high. The lower you peak, the less time the label has to release a new single before it is gone from the charts. If it peaks mid-December when everybody is on holiday, it will take them a while to react.

I don’t expect a David Cook single to race up the charts like Nickelback or Pink or Christina or Rihanna, but based on his past track record, I expect it to do better than an indie debut. Although, I think they should have replaced the single two weeks ago and had him sing different songs on his appearances (the fact that all of his high profile appearances haven’t seemed to have convinced many people to buy the song this week is not a good sign)

Look, this all arm-chair quarter-backing. I say that they should do play X. Others think play Y. We debate. It’s all in good humour. None of us will probably ever be able to prove definitively that we were correct. Unfortunately, we don’t have alternative universes to play out the different scenarios.

AC is pretty much irrelevant to the analysis, IMO. LO is not gaining spins in that format, but pretty much the gains in that format are only going to Xmas songs.

LOL. I think the fact that the Christmas invasion has started is irrelevant. Here is the weekly spin totals for Light On on AC for the last 4 weeks (from this week to tjree weeks ago): 20-26-23-21. That song was going nowhere on AC for the past 8 weeks. Christmas wasn’t going to help, but AC already seemed uninterested. That said, AC doesn’t move units unless you are Groban or Buble or a Christmas song, so it probably doesn’t matter that he’s not an AC hit. It’s just another indication though that this song does not have broad appeal, IMO. Nothing wrong with that. Songs don’t have to appeal to everybody. I just think their are singles on this album which might be more appealing and better choices. Sometimes, you have to pull the plug on a song.

So who is buying Chinese Demoracy????

I claim to know nothing about AC, spins, etc. However, wouldn’t the fact that TOML continued, for several weeks, to be #1 on AC keep them from playing a second song by the same artist on a regular basis? Or was that HAC where TOML was #1? LOL, sorry poor memory

How long did it take TOML to climb to the top on AC? (If it did.) At what # did it enter? I suppose that would make a difference… Oh well, just thinking and trying to be a third string arm chair quarterback .

As I’m sure you know, the first line of my previous post is a reference to Mark Twain.

I’m not entirely certain why the point on AC would make someone “LOL.” The simple fact of the matter is that the only non-Xmas-song on the Top 40 in AC that is LO’s age or younger is Taylor Swift’s Love Story, which moved onto the AC chart with unusual speed. LO was starting to get some momentum with AC spins, and then the Xmas onslaught started, and that momentum stopped. While that certainly doesn’t say to me, hey, AC loves LO, it also doesn’t say to me that AC has made an affirmative decision not to play it.

As far as sales go, my guess is that his sales of LO will probably be pretty much the same this week as last. Now that the “two LOs” appearing on the itunes charts has ended, and the initial rush of people buying bunches of singles off of new albums is over, LO has settled back in the 50s on itunes. One thing that we’ll never know is whether there are people who heard LO and said, “Hey, let me check out that record,” and then bought the record instead of the single. That could have happened. Or maybe it didn’t.

Ah, well. It seemed like this “arm-chair quarter-backing” was happening in every DC sales thread. (I swear, I think that this is the third thread this week that has addressed the “Time for a new single?” question.) So I felt like finally putting in my two cents. As you say, as we cannot have alternate universes, there is no way that this debate can ever be settled.

ETA: Cookcricket—It took about 4 months for ToML to hit #1 on AC, and it is still there.

I claim to know nothing about AC, spins, etc. However, wouldnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t the fact that TOML continued, for several weeks, to be #1 on AC keep them from playing a second song by the same artist on a regular basis?

AC is happy to play two songs form the same artist. Daughtry has a top 10 and a top 20 song.

Ah, well. It seemed like this à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“arm-chair quarter-backingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  was happening in every DC sales thread. (I swear, I think that this is the third thread this week that has addressed the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Time for a new single?à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  question.)

Somebody else asked the question. I answered it. That’s all. There are like three threads discussing HDD numbers for Cook too. Some topics are popular.

It might mean that Fuller threatened Ryan with having to wear a tutu for the opening of American Idol if it did not call it a Breakout Hit. LOL.

So seriously speaking, if Fuller had that pull over what Ryan plays on AT40, (and I don’t know if he does or not), why wouldn’t he have used it earlier? LO’s impacted for weeks and weeks, and like you said, a slow climb up Top 40 isn’t ideal. Just asking, even if you were just kidding, because that’s something I always wondered about. I figure Ryan’s not the one to decide what to play on his show (PD’s do that, right?), but what kind of influence does AI have on what they play? I’d noticed they were always really good to Jordin, but not sure about the other Idols, etc.

Speaking of Jordin, I’m starting to think maybe LO might be taking a similar type of path as Tattoo in terms of taking a while to peak? Except it’s not pop, and not nearly as top 40 friendly, so instead of Top 40, it’s peaking on HAC instead? Just guessing. Also, Trina, I was under the impression HAC does sell, it’s just AC that doesn’t.

I saw this linked at DCO because an interview was posted, but the interesting thing to me is TOML is STILL #1 on their playlist even though they switched to Christmas music. WLTW Lite FM is the #1 AC station in the country fwiw. This station also did a big thing a couple of weeks ago where they had a special page set up for DC and premiered the LO video on their site, had a contest giving tix away to the Hard Rock performance, graphics were made for fans to promote LO on webpages and they still didn’t play LO on the radio. I don’t particularly care if AC radio embraces LO but I DO care if Top 40 and rock does.

I have some questions. Does a new single have to come out from an album before the old single starts to drop. What if it doesn’t? What if it doesn’t and the new single becomes a hit what does that mean? Since David is selling records even though Light On is a flop ( highly debatable) or a mild hit (too soon to tell really) what does that mean? Why is Jordan considered a success when she has slowly grown over the first year and Light On has to be a hit right out of the gate? Last question why would an artist pull a single that was still growing in radio?

No, LO is not a monster hit, but it is continuing to race up the HAC chart, is showing more strength on Top 40, and was number 1 on the VH1 chart this week as a debut.

For the reasons that Folkfan pointed out, I think it would be a mistake of RCA to drop Light On now. I know I’m in the minority (at least on these boards), but I think LO has a lot of potential. It’s obviously not one of those songs that people love at first listen but I think there is evidence to show that people are starting to warm up to it, especially now that the music video is out. It’s currently in the 50s in iTunes sales and is doing better than all of the other songs on the album in single sales, meaning that the exposure is helping in a positive way. I think that having patience and seeing how things play out will benefit RCA and David in the long run. Even if LO doesn’t become a big hit, I don’t really see the problem. There are at least 6 potential hits on that album, so in the long run they have nothing to lose by giving one song a fighting chance. I agree with those who pointed out that the trajectory of LO might be the same as some of Jordin’s singles, which is really not a bad thing.

AC is happy to play two songs form the same artist. Daughtry has a top 10 and a top 20 song.

Yes but Daughtry is an established artist who has sold millions of records and DC is just starting out. I don’t think that a radio station would be comfortable playing too many songs by a new artist until they were certain that he was a success. Right now, DC has two charting songs and if RCA were to add a 3rd song at this point I think it would do more harm than good.

Did anyone see the chipmunk version? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSV0dRxq_y8

LOL I saw this LKO8, Those guys are hillarious…

No, LO is not a monster hit, but it is continuing to race up the HAC chart, is showing more strength on Top 40, and was number 1 on the VH1 chart this week as a debut.

I really don ´t know about the market, but maybe is they release another single… that will help LO get a better ranking…

Here’s 2 cents, probably worth a lot less.

Ultimately, I don’t believe it matters where LO is charting, and I don’t believe 19 and RCA released LO with single sales as their highest priority. I do believe that, despite that The Record currently is characterized as “pop” on iTunes for whatever reason or (short term sales) strategy, the longterm goal seems to be to break him in as a credible rock musician — which will be no easy feat, despite Daughtry’s success in rock radio formats. So, the Cornell name, for good or for bad (and the Cavallo touch), matter more for marketing Cook (for the longterm goal) right now than immediately releasing a crossover pop tune, a category for which a number of the tracks off the Record may readily qualify.

Now, I don’t believe for a second that TPTB will continue toward this noble goal willingly for very long if ultimately rock stations do not embrace Cook, however they do, but I do feel strongly that — at least for now — they are comfortable following parallel paths (with the other path being marketing this eclectic collection more broadly) toward that end. Whether parallel paths is the wisest course can also be debated, but I think that’s where we are right now regardless of whether it’s advisable. (And, since the record contains so many “twists and turns,” there may literally be no other logical approach, now that I think about it.)

Disclaimer: None of this drivel is educated, informed, or otherwise qualifies as expert opinion, but rather lay lather only and should be considered as such.

Given that RCA is thinking of the long-term for David, the timing of the singles is geared toward extending the life of the album sales for a good year. So in this context, LO is doing just fine. It was never destined to be a Top 40 hit, its target was HAC and for now, as the #1 spin increaser on that format, it looks pretty solid to me. The song looks like it will reach at least the Top 10 in that format, and likely will go higher than that. It had to pierce through the expectations that TOML created – a soft AC crowd pleaser, and so its taking some time to do just that. As far as rock play goes, I would guess the goal was to crack open the door there some, so that also will take some time.

Given that the overall goal is to sell albums, so far, RCA’s plan seems to be successful. You can’t really compare the Jive strategy with RCAs. A rock artist will have a completely different journey than that of a pop artist and David’s team is carving a path bridging the two. The fact that LO’s sales have been mediocre does not mean it isn’t doing all that it was meant to do.

I’m guessing that the best time to release the next single(s) would be early next year, probably January. And likely that next single will be a bigger hit for David than LO. Doesn’t mean that LO didn’t serve its purpose though. Every move is a calibrated step forward, not always a major explosion. Some singles pave the way for future ones, which I think is precisely LO’s role to play.

movintothabeat: Your reasoning makes perfect sense to me. Right after LO was released, DC’s brother was quoted calling LO a “transitional” song, which seems consistent with what you’re saying.

Dear Kirsten, just out of curiosity do you have Josiah EP numbers???
Thank you!!!

I work in marketing in the entertainment industry, not the music end of it though. In my office we were discussing the blitz of Taylor Swift singles. It’s a reflection of how the economy is reacting with impulse band-aids and impulsive solutions. The risk with releasing singles one after the other is that the well may dry up to sustain a 2 year marketing stretch. It’s a vertical strategem to quick frontload single releases in order to generate initial cd sales. It seems to be working for now. In the end, it’s not itune single sales but cd sales, concert tickets and merchandise that make the label, the management, and, more importantly, the artist some money. I hardly think that Nickelback’s single is a flop. Their marketing strategy is to tie in sales to concert ticket sales. That’s broad-based and horizontal marketing.

I’m going to agree with FolkFan and others regarding LO. I don’t think it makes any sense to yank this song and go with another single at this time. I would feel differently if the song was losing spins, but its airplay is increasing (albeit at a slower rate than other songs). I think it will depend on how Cook’s album sales hold up. If the album is able to maintain steady, consistent sales in the weeks leading up to Christmas, there really isn’t any need to put another single out there until after the New Year. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks.

I have read several places that the lable normally doesn’t release more than a total of 4 singles from one album. Is that true, and if so, why is that?

I think that it depends on the record and its performance. Daughtry had more than 4 singles off of this record, and Taylor Swift had tons of singles off of her first record. I think that what it comes down to is that most records don’t manage to spawn 4 singles.

It costs money to put out a single due to promotion, payola and what not. I absolutely agree with the statement that its not a great idea to shoot off all the singles right away because the budget for those is not infinite. People like Daughtry and Kelly got more singles because their albums were very successful and therefore the label feels like they can squeeze more singles out and get more album sales.

I disagree that AC can’t sell singles, its exactly what sold platinum of TOML. I also fail to see the logic where David Cook needs rock radio to be successful. Of course the more formats you can get on the more total spins you get and sets of ears listening to your song, I totally get that. But as a whole the rock radio format is extremely fragmented. Only 2 of the formats even remotely play modern music in any capacity, at best Alternative and Active spin a song 2000 times a week. Mainstream and AAA spin their top songs 500 times a week. To put that in perspective LO is spinning 1500 per week on both Hot AC and Top 40. Of course getting an additional 1500-2000 spins on a rock format is fantastic but my point is the ceiling is very low for those formats. They tend to play older music, established artists and rock radio doesn’t translate to sales. I’ve also hypothesized that Hot Ac is the new modern rock format. 7 rock oriented artists are in the top 10 there (Jason Mraz, Nickelback, OAR, Coldplay, Gavin Rossdale, Lifehouse and Daughtry) and those are the ones who sell today.

It costs money to put out a single due to promotion, payola and what not. I absolutely agree with the statement that its not a great idea to shoot off all the singles right away because the budget for those is not infinite. People like Daughtry and Kelly got more singles because their albums were very successful and therefore the label feels like they can squeeze more singles out and get more album sales.

Well, payola is completely illegal, so we probably shouldn’t assume that RCA is promoting LO that way. And promoting a single to radio isn’t that costly, relatively speaking. It’s behind-the-scene negotiation between the label and radio stations. It can’t involve money exchanging hands directly (that’s payola) so usually there will be other forms of incentives for a station to play a song (interviews, appearances, exclusives, etc., maybe not even from the artist they are trying to get played, but another artist on the same label). Most singles are never put out as physical discs anymore, so that entire cost is cut. Really, the only significant cost of putting out a new single is time and work getting something new out there.

What RCA has been doing all these months isn’t really promoting LO, it was promoting Cook and the album. LO was merely a tool. So far, LO has been kind of a blunt tool. It’s picking up a little steam because it made appearances on radio countdowns this weekend, but it’s not really going at the speed I’m sure RCA would like it to. That’s why there’s the suggestion to break out a new tool–something sharper and more effective. I don’t think LO is selling Cook’s album. Cook’s history, the “massive” preorders he accumulated these past 6 months, and the mega-promotion he’s received over the last few weeks, is selling his album. LO is just chugging along for the ride. A different single might have spurred more new-fan sales and helped more than LO in the weeks after the album’s debut (holidays can help a lot–a single that’s buzzed about is even better).

Actually, LO started picking up steam before the weekend countdowns. Looking at the quickcut data, it added over 1.0 million in Audience Impression on Friday alone. It’s had tremendous leaps for well over a week every day on HAC, and has had solid to strong leaps on Top 40 for the past few days.

The Lefsetz Letter had an interesting essay on album sales that goes directly to the assumption that I keep seeing that there is some direct link between hit singles and record sales. The whole thing is interesting, but the one that I found the most interesting was Katy Perry:

54. Katy Perry “One Of The Boys” 537,160

Donà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t believe the hype! Sheà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s not a star! Sheà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s a singles artist at best!

But the dying mainstream media has to trumpet somebody. And theyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve chosen her. But fewer and fewer people are paying attention to the mainstream media and the machine may demand big stars, but listeners do not.

She has had not one, but two, hit singles off of this record, with a lot of buzz and hype. The first single was the song of the summer, hit number one on top 40, and went double platinum. The second one has also gone number one and is currently doing well on multiple formats. The record? Barely gold.

We’ll never know if DC might have sold even more records this week or if he’d do better in the coming weeks if his first single had had a stronger performance out of the gates than LO did, or if the label had decided to jump to, say, Declaration before this publicity blitz. But as a point of fact, the assumption that a hit single on Top 40 or in terms of big downloads is either necessary or sufficient to lead to big record sales is only an assumption and does not appear to be factually based.

Excellent points, Folk Fan!

It would be asanine to squash LO at this point. The song took its sweet time, but recently it has been gaining approximately one million in AI a day. And that was before it picked up Z-100 and KBIG today. Plus, it’s the number one add in HAC and has a very realistic chance of going to #1 there. It will definitely make it to the top twenties in CHR. It’s easily keeping its bullet in both formats.

What is remarkable is that Cook sold at least 250K units this week with a single that wasn’t getting a lot of spins previously. Now airplay is taking off just in time to fuel subsequent week sales.

Will LO ever be a top singles seller? Probably not, and I don’t think RCA intended it to be. RCA doesn’t want David Cook to be Jordin Sparks or Jordin-Sparks-with-a-Y-chromosome, aka David Archuleta. Archie has a very successful single, but it hasn’t produced a ton of album sales. And that’s fine. Jive is following the Jordin model with him, and I’m sure he’ll replicate it well.

But, RCA wants Cook to sell albums, and his first week figures have him well-positioned to sell at least a million, which in the record industry of today has to be considered a smashing success. And that means he’ll get to make a second album.

The opening week sales totals also guarantee that RCA will release followup singles. So even if LO does remain a relatively modest performer, Cook has bigger guns in his arsenal that his label will break out later. But, LO is showing signs that it may be a strong piece of ammunition itself, and it would be foolish not to fully test its firepower.

How many pre-orders could he have possibly accumulated to make such a big dent in the current numbers? I know RCA is bragging about the huge numbers but logically how big can they really be? Amazon is such a small drop in the bucket and even with the ones that he got right off his AI win when the pre-order went up early, it isn’t a given those stuck because it’s pretty simple to cancel a pre-order if you lose interest in someone. Amazon sent out e-mail along the way asking if people still wanted the order. The fanbase has dwindled since so I’m sure there are the ones who responded with a “no”. I don’t think iTunes could have brought in huge pre-sales because I don’t recall his ranking there being anything out of the ordinary.

Jordin Sparks or Jordin- Sparks-with-a-Y-chromosome, aka David Archuleta

Somehow I find this comment a little offensive to DA…

How many pre-orders could he have possibly accumulated to make such a big dent in the current numbers? I know RCA is bragging about the huge numbers but logically how big can they really be?

Not many. Norah Jones’s last album was No.1 on Amazon for months, and set an Amazon preorder record, but the total sales there were like less than 50,000 or something. Saying the album is selling as it is only because of preorders is ridiculous. HDD doesn’t even use Amazon for their update, it’s still on the chart now.

Especially given that, if you didn’t affirmatively respond to the Amazon emails on older preorders, Amazon cancelled the preorders. Several people on DCO complained about having missed the follow-up emails because of spamfilters and finding that their preorders had been cancelled. People who got DCTR because of a preorder affirmatively wanted it, even if they initially made the preorder back at the time of the finale.

Somehow I find this comment a little offensive to DAà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ ¦

You’re not a current or former denizen of TWoP, are you? “Snarkito ergo sum….”

Being serious, though, that’s exactly what Jive has transformed Archie into: Jordin 2.0. Although I wasn’t a fan during the show, I did (and still do) think he had something substantive to offer the music industry in the piano-playing singer-songwriter vein (a much better singing, much less pretentious version of Josiah Leming) so I was pretty disappointed at the direction he went in.

This is off-topic from the Billboard discussion, but it seems based on that piece in that LDS publication that David and his father aren’t completely thrilled with how Jive has packaged him either. If that’s the case, it was probably a mistake to sign with Jive because this is what Jive does. Jive will make him successful enough to have a career in pop music, but if he wants to be seen as an artist rather than a product, he should find another label. I don’t see Jive dropping Archie, but my personal hope is that after this album, Archie will drop Jive.

I think that Noctem turning positive about LO (as a single, not as a piece of art, as I think that you’ve always liked it and, amazingly enough, presaged DC’s description of LO in his recent interviews) is pretty strong proof that the tide is turning on LO. [grin]

“Light On” = “It’s a Wonderful Life”. If some don’t know the history of this movie, peeps didn’t like it when it first came out. However, over the yrs. it has become a ‘classic’. “Light On” will probably catch on sooner than that movie, but…I do hope the tide IS turning. Of course this is all JMO.;)

Gee, you mean that Light On is starting to break out now? It will peak just after the Idol fans and holiday shoppers have obtained their copies? Just in time to try to sustain some sales? It’s almost like RCA knows what it’s doing, huh?

(as a single, not as a piece of art, as I think that youà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢ve always liked it and, amazingly enough, presaged DCà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s description of LO in his recent interviews)

It was refreshing to read that he detects the same influences in his song that many of us do and that’s what attracted him to it. He heard Zeppelin, I heard Eagles, but it’s the same era essentially. And he also cited the glam rock and nineties guitar strains that a lot of us commented on.

It’s astounding to me, though, that there has been nary a mention of this throwback quality to LO in any of the reviews of the single itself or the album as a whole. It’s as if every critic’s (even the positive ones) writing process when it came to his review boiled down to typing the name “Daughtry” and then coming up with other words to fit around it.

Feel free to hate the CD if you want, but please critique it intelligently. I’m no musicologist, but I could tell you after one listen– even if I’d never heard of the guy before– that David Cook is not post-grunge– he’s straight grunge (post-Seattle, when nineties alternative became more melodic). There are a couple songs (LOTM; certain parts of LO) that could fit within the discography of the usual suspects to whom DC is standardly compared. But, in general, Cook is much more alt-rock than flyover rock.

FolkFan and noctem, to add to your thoughts about Cook’s sound and the Lefsetz article about album sales, I think the most important thing is that Cook has a sound, whatever you think it may be. The album was produced by one person, and mostly written by Cook. If you like one song on David Cook it is very likely that you will like them all. That isn’t something you can say about most Pop records these days. That is why people like Jack Johnson are selling well, even though he’s not on the Top 40. One of the interesting things I have noted is that the version of Light On that is currently 40 on itunes is from the album, the version of ToML that is in the top 120 is from the album. Buyers are looking at the album and not just downloading the single without bothering with the rest of his work.

The closest that anyone has come to that, noctem, was the Ann Powers article from the LA Times. And that was really not so much a review, as a profile, even though it did discuss DCTR.

Interesting points, Jlyn.

FolkFan and noctem, to add to your thoughts about Cookà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s sound and the Lefsetz article about album sales, I think the most important thing is that Cook has a sound, whatever you think it may be. The album was produced by one person, and mostly written by Cook. If you like one song on David Cook it is very likely that you will like them all.

And if you want to make a really interesting logic leap, I think this ties into the whole “cougar” attraction. The cougar-phenomenon associated with Cook is quite overblown, but to the extent it does exist, I think it probably goes beyond what is normally associated with cougars– mere attraction to younger males. If you think about it, today’s cougar-age or near-cougar-age women were in college, or at least in their in their twenties, in the nineties– the heyday for alternative music. So, I think this partially may explain why Cook may have had an even stronger appeal to this age-set than the average guy on TV who they find visually appealing.

Noctem- no one may read this comment, but I just saw you comment about DA and the LDS publication. I am aware that this publication is not put out by the LDS church. I take that article with a huge grain of salt. I think it is a bit like many publications that are trying to be sensational to get people’s attention. I have heard David many times in interviews say sincerely (I believe that is the only way David knows how to be) that he is very happy with his direction for now and that he wanted an eclectic album. The only thing I have heard his dad say on a fansofdavid chat is that they had tried to negotiate to have more of the songs David had written on the main album. He said they both compromised. They got some things and didn’t get others. I expect it works that way with most new artists, but I gather that they have been very happy overall.

If I had my choice, most of his bonus songs would be on the main album, but there is only about one new song, plus angels that I would be willing to give up. Angels is great, but since we have heard him sing it many, many times and his fans already bought it, I would be willing to give that up.

I think you have a real point noctem, especially since I would fall into your category. (I have 10 years on Cook, so I don’t know if I would qualify for cougar yet.) But as a college and grad student of the 90′s his music is very attractive to me. If you want to make another logic leap, I think that this is helping to spur album sales for him. We of the CD generation are used to listening to, and enjoying whole albums, and actually, you know, quaintly bothering to purchase it. We know have enough money to buy ipods but we still have those old bad habits. It’s not a bad fanbase to have.

As someone who is also 10 years older than DC, I affirmatively vote that you are not of the age to be a cougar, Jlyn.

You know what I find really funny? It’s not just Cook’s music that is last-decade-revivalist. I haven’t bought a CD in a while before this one, but do artists today still widely put hidden tracks on their albums? When I first streamed the record and observed the gap after ADA ends, I was like, “Did he put a secret song on here? That’s right out of the nineties!” Because it seemed like EVERY alt-rock band used to include a hidden song on their record in the nineties…

Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s astounding to me, though, that there has been nary a mention of this throwback quality to LO in any of the reviews of the single itself or the album as a whole. Ità ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s as if every criticà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s (even the positive ones) writing process when it came to his review boiled down to typing the name à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“Daughtryà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬  and then coming up with other words to fit around it.

Feel free to hate the CD if you want, but please critique it intelligently. Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢m no musicologist, but I could tell you after one listenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ even if Ià ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢d never heard of the guy beforeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ that David Cook is not post-grungeà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬’ heà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s straight grunge (post-Seattle, when nineties alternative became more melodic). There are a couple songs (LOTM; certain parts of LO) that could fit within the discography of the usual suspects to whom DC is standardly compared. But, in general, Cook is much more alt-rock than flyover rock.

Completely agree that it is wrong to compare David Cook to Daughtry, except that I do think if you want to classify Cook in relation to grunge in anyway, it would have to be post-grunge. It just a different grunge lineage to Nickelback/Daughtry, although so many people are called post-grunge that I’m not sure if the term has gotten too fuzzy to be useful.

To me though David Cook’s album has too much of the 70s and 80s feel to it to be fully post-grunge. I’m sure it is no accident that he chose to sing Fleetwood Mac’s Little Lies on his CD debut concert, as if he wanted to remind people of the many musical influences from that era in his CD.

Jlyn, folkfan, and noctem, to resurrect another ’90s reference, you are so money. A lot of Cook’s appeal is that he is in so many ways a throwback to the previous decade. I’m 5 years older than him – I hope that doesn’t make me a cougar! – but listening to his music brings back fond memories of listening to the radio in college and discovering artists I liked enough to take a chance on their albums. And the fact that he seems to have come of age, musically, during that same period, just strengthens that feeling of kinship. Right down to his love for Sarah McLachlan .

I’ve actually seen some reviews of DC’s album that do discuss this streak of ’90s alt-rock nostalgia, though they haven’t tended to cast it in a particularly favorable light. (Exhibit A: Jon Caraminica’s NYT review.) But they do seem to recognize its power, however grudgingly. And yes, Ann Powers does, too – not grudgingly.

I’m not sure if I was misunderstood or the conversation just generally moved into another direction. I was explaining why there has been suggestions that LO be ditched for another single. Personally, though, I think it’s too late for that. If they were going to do it, they should have done it 2-3 weeks ago.

I understand LO was picking up a little before the weekend. I don’t look at the quick cut data because a lot of those spins simply don’t count–they’re unmonitored spins. If you look at mediabase, I believe it had a few days last week with plus-20s and plus-teens. One day with a plus-30. Then on Sunday it had a plus-60 or so, accounting for some AT40 spins, and today a plus-120 or so (can’t exactly recall), accounting for more AT40 spins and Rick Dees spins. And that’s great, but it doesn’t mean it’ll keep going like that. Crush had weekday spin increases over 100 for a whole week before *bam* it started to slow down and then stalled. It sustained in the lower teens for a long time before starting to fall. You just don’t know, and RCA can’t control everything. So I’m hard-pressed to look back and LO’s trajectory and say that RCA “knew it all along.” I’m pretty sure that, if RCA had a choice, they would want LO higher on Top 40–maybe in the lower-20s by now. With the radio freeze coming up (radio slows down in December), LO could have sustained in the freeze at a higher level. And I’m sure that RCA would want LO to have more of a positive effect on album sales when people are out shopping rather than in January when people stop buying. If Cook doesn’t have massive promotion after this week and if all of his current fans have purchased the album, what is going to sell his record? Not luck–he needs something to keep his music out there. His single is it, and it’s not where it probably should be at this point in time. But, again, I think it’s too late and RCA needs to see it through. RCA could get lucky and LO could sneak in while other songs are more affected by the freeze.

As for Katy Perry not selling a lot of albums–her first single “I Kissed A Girl” is a classic novelty single. Yes, “Hot N Cold” is #1 on CHR now, but she’ll be known for IKAG. If she doesn’t have another hit after “Hot N Cold,” chances are “Hot N Cold” will be mostly forgotten, and IKAG will be her legacy. That’s the problem with novelty singles. Katy’s a singles artist, like Rihanna was before they re-released her album with more songs, released 7 singles and pushed the heck out of her album. There are some artists that, no matter how well their single does, they don’t sell albums.

But there are singles that very much do sell albums. “No Air” was the single that pushed Jordin close to platinum. Without that single she wouldn’t be anywhere near platinum. “U Ur Hand” sold most of P!nk’s last album. It was sluggishly moving along until that song. Cook should be able to sell his albums off the back of his singles. He’s a debut artist, so it’s not like, after the first week, he’s can sell his albums off the back of anything else. He’s not AC/DC or The Eagles. He can’t sell on his name alone.

Being serious, though, thatà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s exactly what Jive has transformed Archie into: Jordin 2.0. Although I wasnà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢t a fan during the show, I did (and still do) think he had something substantive to offer the music industry in the piano-playing singer-songwriter vein (a much better singing, much less pretentious version of Josiah Leming) so I was pretty disappointed at the direction he went in.

And would you have buy that… it seems like somehow David Archuleta can win with the critics, not you, if he would have made and older more mature sounding album, a la Jason Mraz or Jhon Myer, he would have being attacked with comments like “he doesn ´t have the life experience to sing those songs”, or “he is being boring”…

DA told since the beggining that giving the ammount of time he had to work in his album this one will have to be more in to the pop vibe… right now for me this album will give DA the way to made a trasition from AI to the commercial public… latter he can made the decision about what kind of artist he wants to be…

About Jeff and David not being happy with the album, I think you migh have miss this post:

Jeff notes there were some differing opinions with the label, and that he and David had to negotiate and compromise on songs. He stresses, however, that the label really tried to be fair. He says they did listen and let him and David have creative and production input on at least half the songs.

The article in the LSD publication, as LK08 said, was made by a persone that “used” to work with David, they don ´t have the imput in the state or mind and opinion from both David and Jeff about the album and Jive, and to me those kind of articles are more like a desperete try to get in to the attention that David is receiving right now… and those people should stop doing that kind of things…

PS.

If you haven ´t heard that bonus track that MJ posted in that other thread, I recomend you do, it migh give you an idea of the artist that David migh grow up to be…

A million more audience impressions is a million more audience impressions. The fact that a market does not count for purposes of the Top 40 chart does not mean that people in that market cannot hear the song and buy the record. The simple fact is that, even setting aside the Top 40 countdown, LO has been growing well in the last several days—not soaring like a rocket, but steadily growing after it sort of plateaued for a few days a couple weeks ago. From the perspective of a DC fan, here’s hoping that it keeps growing.

You know, it’s interesting that you brought up Pink. Man, that So What single has been huge. And,in three weeks, it has fueled her to just over 300,000 in record sales. In this market, not bad, but that certainly doesn’t seem to say, hey, hit single even by established star = huge record sales.

Otherwise, yes, it does kind of look like the conversation wandered away from you, soundscene. [smile]

Cruz- I agree about David and remember that he has also said many times that he wants to do younger things since he is young- things that appeal to kids his age. He already had the older audience. AI isn’t known for having a huge young audence because of the old stuff they do. He is now gaining those young fans as well.

One of the beauties of Cook — and there are MANY in my view, pun intended — is that depending on who you are (and sometimes how old your musical experience may be, ahem ) you hear vintage “your era” in his songs. In this thread alone, we’ve heard the 90s, 80s, 70s. And, since I was a musical prodigy (hahahahaha) where some hear 90s grunge, I may hear more Eagles, Journey, and maybe even, say, Queen (in Bar-ba-sol, in particular!) That’s why his target demographic can be so broad. And, that’s why I completely agree that the “cougar” effect (in some instances) means musical interest, not sexual conquest. So, the Cookie’s all good and all’s good for the Cookie! Nom, nom, nom… :lol_wp:

Otherwise, yes, it does kind of look like the conversation wandered away from you, soundscene. [smile]

Right, yes, I know–but I wanted to respond to comments made when I wasn’t online. [smile back]

Yes, more audience impressions matter, whether they’re monitored or not. But all artists have unmonitored spins. The monitored spins generally follow the same path, so you can gauge the relative impact an artist is making by his monitored play (unless the artist is very indie or small and is only getting played on unmonitored stations).

Not all of P!nk’s singles wind up selling her album, but the right one will. Again, that was the point I was making. “So What” was huge, but I would guess that it’ll be “Sober” or maybe the third single that will really sell her album. It’s got to be the right song. But I’m pretty sure P!nk wouldn’t have sold as many albums as she has if “So What” had not been as successful as it was when her album dropped. My point was always that more airplay for LO at this point would have sold more albums.

Of course, following that same logic, maybe LO is not “the right song” to “really sell” DCTR, but the second or third single will be. My guess is that the good start plus TV appearances plus soundcheck/AOL sessions plus LO performance on the radio will build up enough momentum to get DCTR to strong, if not eyepopping, numbers by the end of the year. Then, as you’re suggesting will happen with Pink, a subsequent single could blow the record sales open.

ETA: Comment thingy does not like plus signs. Who knew?

lol… DCTR. Nice nickname.