HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 6-12

With 54.98% of reports in, Jason Aldean easily tops the chart. He’s expected to sell in the 280-300K range when all the numbers are counted. While he has a HUGE lead over the number two album, it’s a HUGE drop from original industry estimates. The biz expected him to sell 450K in his opening week and his last album sold opened with 409K (and stayed in the top 10 for dog weeks). Sales predictions have been dropping all week which is generally a bad sign for subsequent sales week (lots of buyers pre-buying, so the ardent fans are on board, but the casual fans are not as interested. Pre-buying leads to bigger predictions in advance of the drop and bigger first day estimates as they are considered sold on the first day). What is up with that? Should he have had another lead-off single with Kelly or are Country sales slipping (hard to argue with 4 of the top 5 being country acts). Music not as good? People are tired of him? Cheating scandal tarnished his image? In any event, he’ll have his second number one album and fourth Country album topper.

Barbara Streisand’s “Partners” just keeps selling and selling and selling. It’s second this week right now and is expected to stay there with 55-60K in sales (thank goodness for Jason or I would have thought this was January). Last week’s number one is this week’s number three. Voice judge Blake Shelton’s “Bringing Back the Sunshine” is bringing back the buyers for his second week with a drop expected in the 60% range which is pretty decent in recent markets. He is expected to finish the week in 5th. Kenny Cheseney is currently 4th and Lady A is fifth in their second week. Debuting 6th through 8th are Keyshia Cole (R&B), Hozier (Irish Indie Rock) and Stevie Nicks with an album re-covering demos she primarily recorded between 1969 and 1987. Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga are 9th in their third week and Frozen is 10th in its umpteenth week (why did that pop this week?).

Alex and Sierra, winners of the last season of X-Factor US, are sitting way back in 42nd despite predictions that their album would be in the top 10. I expected them to do well since their singles sell like hot cakes. It may be that their vendors have not reported in. It will be interesting to see where “It’s About Us” ends up. Now 51 at 16 and Now 50 at 39th also feature X-Factor artists, but from the UK division (Cher Lloyd and One Direction). Jackie Evancho from AGT is 30th and Jennifer Hudson from American Idol is 46th. Jackie seems to be showing some consistent sales (they weren’t as high as the others that released that week, but they continue to roll along).

The Voice Judges Adam Levine and Blake Shelton (for his previous album) are at 18th and 26th respectively.

CHART DATE: 10/13/2014
LAST UPDATE: 10/13/2014 14:23:13
NOW IN: 54.98%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
— 1 JASON ALDEAN OLD BOOTS, NEW DIRT 117,033
3 2 BARBRA STREISAND PARTNERS 33,038
1 3 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 19,589
6 4 KENNY CHESNEY THE BIG REVIVAL 11,999
2 5 LADY ANTEBELLUM 747 10,681
— 6 KEYSHIA COLE POINT OF NO RETURN 10,571
— 7 HOZIER HOZIER 10,549
— 8 STEVIE NICKS 24K GOLD – SONGS FROM THE VAULT 10,176
4 9 TONY BENNETT & LADY GAGA CHEEK TO CHEEK 9,942
31 10 FROZEN: THE SONGS VARIOUS ARTISTS 7,785

28 16 NOW 51 VARIOUS ARTISTS 6,237

7 18 MAROON 5 V 5,821

46 26 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 3,477

41 30 JACKIE EVANCHO AWAKENING 3,189

— 39 NOW 50 VARIOUS ARTISTS 2,667

— 42 ALEX & SIERRA IT’S ABOUT US 2,131

38 46 JENNIFER HUDSON JHUD 1,881

24 50 MELISSA ETHERIDGE THIS IS M.E. 1,566

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.