HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 4-10

With 54.50% of reports in, Eminem is going to have the number one album. His current numbers are almost an order of magnitude higher than album in second place. He’s outselling the rest of the top 10, top 20 and top 30 combined. He is totally dominating. There are even Monsters wondering if he might outsell Gaga next week. HDD has updated their estimate for him to be 775K which would be the second highest opener in 2013. It’s also up from the 741K in sales he had with his last album. Eminem has remained a remarkably consistent act. He may even mess with Gaga’s number 1 this week (though, with a typical 70% drop, I would say not).

Despite my opinion on the matter, it seems that people have not grown weary of buying ridiculous novelty albums. I could see if the Duck dudes had some measure of musicality, one could argue that one is just supporting them or that you actually do appreciate their efforts. But this is just a crass crash grab. Even more so than the music industry usually does. Just buy one of their t-shirts people. Don’t reward the music biz for this kind of crap. Keep this up and we are soon going to be subjected to the musical stylings of the Kardashian clan. Don’t think Ryan can’t make that happen.

Katy Perry (guest judge for Idol and XF) is currently third in her third week, Celine Dion (frequently covered on Idol) is debuting in 4th and Kelly Clarkson’s (winner of the first season of Idol) Christmas album (of songs you might actually want to listen to) is 5th. Avril Lavigne (also a guest judge for Idol) is debuting on 6th, Lorde (never been on Idol) is 7th, Luke Bryan (featured on Celebrity Apprentice as a project) is 8th, Drake (of Degrassi High!) is 9th and Miley Cyrus (who could be her own reality show) is 10th.

Pentatonix from NBC’s the Sing-off is currently debuting in 12th with their second studio album (they’ve also released a Christmas album). Susan Boyle from BGT has her Christmas offering at 24th in its second week. Scotty McCreery is in 26th for his fourth week and Cassadee Pope from the third season of The Voice is at 30th in her fifth week. First to second week drops are usually in the 70% range while fourth and fifth week drops are around 25%.

Although individual singers are not credited by Avicii or Glee, Adam Lambert does have solo tracks on both albums. Glee is debuting at 25th and Avicii is clinging to the chart at 50th. X-Factor’s Josh Krajcik also has a song on Avicii’s album.

Gaga released her album on a Monday to try to boost sales a tad. She’s predicted to sell around 350K with already 100K in digital pre-orders. That’s quite a drop from her last album where she sold over 1.1M albums and changed the rules for Soundscan (Amazon was selling her album for 99 cents and BB set a minimum price for the first four weeks of an album release to stop that kind of loss-leader).

CHART DATE: 11/11/2013
LAST UPDATE: 11/11/2013 16:47:55
NOW IN: 54.50%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 EMINEM MARSHALL MATHERS LP 2 512,115
4 2 THE ROBERTSONS DUCK THE HALLS: ROBERTSON FAMILY 56,883
2 3 KATY PERY PRISM 47,612
— 4 CELINE DION LOVED ME BACK TO LIFE 46,935
3 5 KELLY CLARKSON WRAPPED IN RED 33,333
— 6 AVRIL LAVIGNE AVRIL LAVIGNE 32,240
9 7 LORDE PURE HEROINE 26,017
12 8 LUKE BRYAN CRASH MY PARTY 25,824
5 9 DRAKE NOTHING WAS THE SAME 23,947
10 10 MILEY CYRUS BANGERZ 22,891


35 12 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 15,837
— 13 PENTATONIX PTX, VOL. 2 15,112

20 24 SUSAN BOYLE HOME FOR CHRISTMAS 8,051
— 25 GLEE CAST A KATY OR A GAGA EP 7,935
19 26 SCOTTY MCCREERY SEE YOU TONIGHT 7,716

32 30 CASSADEE POPE FRAME BY FRAME 6,252

— 49 AVICII TRUE 3,135
36 50 KINGS OF LEON MECHANICAL BULL 3,019

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.