HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov 10-16

With 46.22% of the chart reporting in, Christmas is coming. One Direction are easily on their way to their fourth number one album. One Direction was formed on the British version of X-factor from a collection of attractive soloists (Simon made sure at least one of them could sing well – I admit I don’t know them that well – did they cast standard archetypes like “Bad Boy”, “Good Looking Guy”, etc or was the mix of looks enough?). They were generally mocked by adults at the time (Simon used to make them stand on boxes on the show until they got better at movement), but excellent A&R and hard work by the boys has made them an international sensation. The shelf life for created boy bands can be pretty short, but these guys are making it work, selling out concerts and consistently getting number one albums. The revenue they pull in per concert is staggering, their albums sell very well and I’m sure the merchandise sales is off the chart. They are gradually progressing to an older sound. “4” should continue to sell well throughout the Christmas season.

Taylor Swift is another act that has transitioned from young to adult (and dated one of the One D lads and probably wrote a song about it). She has dominated the album chart for the last three weeks and still continues to move units that others would dream about having for their first week. She’ll have to settle for second this week, but I’m sure I’ll be talking about her for many weeks to come on these sales threads.

Pentatonix is another reality singing show group doing well – except they formed themselves. They were on the summer singing show “The Sing Off” which featured groups and was cancelled by NBC a number of years ago – soon to be revived. Pentatonix took their initial exposure from the show and built up a steady fan base with excellent and interesting youtube videos. They released songs independently until they were recently signed. I can’t help admire them for taking a style of singing that isn’t all that commercial theses days, making the most of the opportunity and putting out some damn good music. Their Christmas album just keeps gaining traction moving up to top 3 on this report. Their previous Christmas album has also popped to number 14. Truly a Cinderella story, but with they themselves playing the role of their own Fairy Godmother.

Nickelback is back! No act lasts forever and they were huge in the mid 00’s. “No Fixed Address” is debuting in 4th. Sam Smith is making a career of being lonely and desperate in song. He’s moving up to 5th. Foo’s were second last week and 6th this week. “In This Moment” is a Metal band (lots of groups in the top 10 this week – half). “Gaurdians of the Galaxy” suddenly surged to 8th – I guess giving it away for free can boost sales elsewhere? IDK. Idina Menzel is the other big Christmas CD this year and I see that one at Starbucks all the time (whereas I see Pentatonix nowhere – either they need better distribution or it is selling out before I get there).

Kelly Clarkson had one of the huge Christmas albums last year (stupid Ducks) and she’s 50th this week. Now 52 features a track from US X-Factor’s last winners, Alex and Sierra – it is 22nd. Blake and Adam represent judges at 46th and 24th respectively.

CHART DATE: 11/24/2014
LAST UPDATE: 11/24/2014 14:20:44
NOW IN: 46.22%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
— 1 ONE DIRECTION FOUR 138,718
1 2 TAYLOR SWIFT 1989 102,250
8 3 PENTATONIX THAT’S CHRISTMAS TO ME 61,185
— 4 NICKELBACK NO FIXED ADDRESS 33,950
9 5 SAM SMITH IN THE LONELY HOUR 21,334
2 6 FOO FIGHTERS SONIC HIGHWAYS 20,323
— 7 IN THIS MOMENT BLACK WIDOW 15,230
23 8 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY SOUNDTRACK 13,927
14 9 IDINA MENZEL HOLIDAY WISHES 13,786

— 14 PENTATONIX PTXMAS 11,186

6 22 NOW 52 VARIOUS ARTISTS 7,849

21 24 MAROON 5 V 7,088

45 46 BLAKE SHELTON BRINGING BACK THE SUNSHINE 2,518

— 50 KELLY CLARKSON WRAPPED IN RED 2,114

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Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.