HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Aug 11-17

With 48.14% of reports in, the “Guardians of the Galaxy” soundtrack is set to have its second week at the top of the chart. This mix of classic songs has the makings of a hit. Showing that Disney has a way not just with old songs, but also new songs, the Frozen soundtrack just continues to sell. It is back in the top 5 at number 3.

5 Seconds of Summer is demonstrating legs by coming in at number 2 this week. Last week’s number 2, Now 51 (including X-Factor’s Cher Lloyd) is down to 4th. Sam Smith is 5th (he may hit the top of the Hot 100 this week) and Country mainstay Luke Bryan is 6th. Way down in 7th is the top debut of the week, Troye Sivan. Troye is a South-African born, Australian actor and youtube personality (he was in one of the X-men movies). Godsmack is 8th, Gaslight Anthem (Rock) is debuting 9th and Miranda Lambert (including a duet with Carrie Underwood) climbs back into the top 10.

American Idol’s latest winner, Caleb Johnson is debuting his fantastic, wonderful, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious (at least according to the press release) album this week. It is coming in at a relatively dismal 17th in a rather weak week. It may exceed sales predictions from last week… In other news, One Direction is at 38th. Voice judges Pharrell and Blake Shelton are at 44th and 49th respectively.

Caleb sales are not impressive. Few thought they would be. Candice will likely shed her title as the worst selling Idol winner ever.

CHART DATE: 08/18/2014
LAST UPDATE: 08/18/2014 13:29:46
NOW IN: 48.14%

LW TW artist / album label sales index
1 1 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY SOUNDTRACK 34,391
5 2 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER 21,767
6 3 FROZEN WALT SOUNDTRACK 19,524
2 4 NOW 51 VARIOUS ARTISTS 16,165
8 5 SAM SMITH IN THE LONELY HOUR 15,443
13 6 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL CRASH MY PARTY 14,767
— 7 TROYE SIVAN TRXYE – EP 14,589
3 8 GODSMACK 1000HP 14,112
— 9 GASLIGHT ANTHEM GET HURT 13,983
16 10 MIRANDA LAMBERT PLATINUM 12,614

— 17 CALEB JOHNSON TESTIFY 9,139

44 38 ONE DIRECTION MIDNIGHT MEMORIES 3,349

41 44 PHARRELL WILLIAMS G I R L 2,996

— 49 BLAKE SHELTON BASED ON A TRUE STORY 2,310
49 50 SEETHER BICYCLE ISOLATE & MEDICATE 2,215

Hits Daily Double

  • girlygirl

    Colton’s album is now out. It is currently #5 on the overall iTunes chart. Which I believe is higher than Caleb’s album peaked at and definitely higher than Kris’ did. Caleb is currently at #150, Kris at #307. I’m guessing that the 1-day predictions for Colton will be slightly higher than 9-11K. I don’t know if it will be significantly higher, though.

  • Marko

    I guess Real Rock is not much popular lately.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    If Johnson had won S5, he’d be in the top five for the week even if the album consisted of him singing the Barney theme song over heavy metal guitars.

    The culture changed. This is the dude the Idol voting audience wanted as winner, without wanting to support his original music (just like Voice voters, just like XFUSA voters). Johnson made some of his own problems, but the reality that it’s possible to win without having an audience for the music is not unique to him, nor is it his doing.

  • Incipit

    Hah! Nailed it, Kirsten. Kudos for the Mary Poppins reference. Cracked me up.

  • George

    Caleb had a big buy in yesterday it seems. His numbers may go up a tad bit.

  • Guest

    This was expected for Caleb. But if Kris is doing so bad, 5 yrs out Idol, 2 yrs from last album, I can imagine what adjectives will be used for Cook (if he ever even releases a 3rd album). His Kiss You Tonight is still at #30, after 5 mos in release.

  • wordnerdarchie

    Yay for Kiss You Tonight – the little song that could even though it isn’t a summer song. It is still hanging in there. Great job with the song, David & David. :)

  • girlygirl

    yesterday’s sales wouldn’t count toward his 1st week numbers — those only go through Sunday night. But where was this big buy in? Moving up a few spots on iTunes wouldn’t affect the numbers much.

  • girlygirl

    David’s 2nd album sold more in its 1st week than Kris’ 2nd album has in total. So they aren’t exactly starting from the same point for album #3.

  • Guest

    More time would have elapsed between with the 3rd album, 2 yrs vs 4 yrs. Even if Cook does better than Kris, it would be immaterial.

  • Incipit

    “Yay for Kiss You Tonight – the little song that could … It is still hanging in there.”

    Yes, indeed, wordnerdarchie. Second week in the Top 30. Congrats to David and David! I am ever appreciative of windmills and the rest of the chart mavens explaining the pace and the peculiarities of the Country Charts. Without knowing how slowly songs can move up, it would have seemed glacial to me.

    There are stats for the songs that take the longest to get to the Top 20 or even #1- but they do get there.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Quite a few Idols have sold about 10-15k of singles launched on Idol (some have sold more, but that’s not my point). I’ve always attributed that phenomenon to 10-15k being the music-buying audience that’s left after the burst of enthusiasm for a new winner is done… so now Idol just doesn’t generate that initial burst of enthusiasm.

    If those sales levels are chalked up to the appeal of the music, it’s not just real damn that was stupid wording Johnson classic rock that’s been in trouble these past five years.

  • mmb

    the mere elapsing of time is not the determining factor in how something sells…we have no idea what the circumstances of Cook’s next release will be…if it is an indie release with little promo and no radio single then the expectations would, of course, be for very low sales…if he winds up with a bigger distribution deal, or has a radio single, or releases on the heels of a high profile performance it could sell better…kris and cook’s sales have little to do with how many years post idol they are, or who released an album first (it isn’t a race), but with promo, radio presence, and distribution (or lack thereof)

  • George

    Heard from a friend of mine in retail that over a thousand units were sold from his store yesterday ( I was nosey and asked him). Seemed like a bulk buy.

  • springboard2

    Cook’s album hasn’t happened yet, anything about it is pure speculation!

  • springboard2

    Mediabase – Tuesday update:

    AC:
    6 6 ONE DIRECTION Story Of My Life 1726 1784 -58 13.832
    -2 Spins
    -20 Bullet
    +0.08 AI
    25 23 DANNY GOKEY Hope In Front Of Me 96 102 -6 0.071
    +1 Spins
    +2 Bullet
    0 AI
    Country:
    16 14 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 3976 3868 108 29.443
    -7 Spins
    -58 Bullet
    -0.066 AI
    15 15 SWON BROTHERS Later On 3917 3913 4 27.292
    -6 Spins
    -29 Bullet
    -0.308 AI
    29 28 SCOTTY MCCREERY Feelin’ It 1985 1710 275 10.318
    +52 Spins
    +19 Bullet
    +0.182 AI
    30 30 DAVID NAIL Kiss You Tonight 1708 1552 156 9.303
    +2 Spins
    -28 Bullet
    +0.23 AI
    39 40 RAELYNN God Made Girls 950 891 59 5.29
    -15 Spins
    -36 Bullet
    -0.114 AI
    HAC:
    29 29 DAUGHTRY Battleships 894 847 47 3.21
    +8 Spins
    +6 Bullet
    +0.065 AI
    42 42 ALEX & SIERRA Scarecrow 304 271 33 0.521
    +2 Spins
    -5 Bullet
    -0.003 AI
    67 49 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 162 48 114 0.519
    +16 Spins
    +13 Bullet
    +0.047 AI
    POP:
    40 36 FIFTH HARMONY BO$$ 1141 1103 38 3.814
    0 Spins
    -14 Bullet
    -0.045 AI
    47 43 G.R.L. Ugly Heart 668 594 74 1.674
    +5 Spins
    +7 Bullet
    +0.013 AI
    Urban AC:
    22 19 JENNIFER HUDSON It’s Your World f/R. Kelly 338 292 46 2.829
    +3 Spins
    -1 Bullet
    +0.128 AI
    Canada-Country:
    15 14 M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD Somethin’ Bad 682 664 18 3.49
    -8 Spins
    -15 Bullet
    -0.02 AI
    45 42 SWON BROTHERS Later On 160 151 9 0.683
    +1 Spins
    +5 Bullet
    +0.017 AI
    Canada-Hot AC:
    11 11 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 828 800 28 4.705
    +2 Spins
    -7 Bullet
    +0.02 AI
    Canada-Main AC:
    16 14 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 252 209 43 1.763
    +11 Spins
    +18 Bullet
    -0.005 AI
    Canada-Top 40:
    16 11 HEDLEY Heaven In Our Headlights 1120 1019 101 6.053
    +16 Spins
    +12 Bullet
    +0.19 AI
    Christian AC:
    3 3 DANNY GOKEY Hope In Front Of Me 1316 1197 119 5.981
    +9 Spins
    -8 Bullet
    +0.031 AI
    12 11 MANDISA Back To You 696 676 20 3.068
    -2 Spins
    +2 Bullet
    +0.063 AI
    17 16 COLTON DIXON More Of You 473 433 40 2.302
    +8 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    +0.004 AI
    47 46 VARIOUS ARTISTS Hope Can Change Everything 70 65 5 0.13
    +3 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    +0.005 AI

  • standtotheright

    I’d say that KYT is moving slower than average, but so did Nail’s Whatever She’s Got, and that went to #1 and then stayed high in recurrency. I am NOT predicting that KYT will go to #1; I am saying that the song’s fortunes can’t be written yet. It has good callout and isn’t tied to seasonality the way that some of the bro-ier tracks are.

  • springboard2

    8/19/2014 – Itunes Top 1500 Singles and Albums (from LivePopBars)

    Singles:
    47. Miranda Lambert – Somethin’ Bad (with Carrie Underwood) [Duet Version]
    65. Fifth Harmony – BO$$
    163. One Direction – Story of My Life
    184. RaeLynn – God Made Girls
    187. Scotty McCreery – Feelin’ It
    228. The Swon Brothers – Later On
    246. One Direction – You & I
    250. Jennifer Hudson – Dangerous
    258. Pentatonix – Problem
    264. Phillip Phillips – Raging Fire
    290. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    315. David Nail – Kiss You Tonight
    346. Phillip Phillips – Home
    354. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    359. Kat Perkins – Fearless
    363. Jennifer Hudson – It’s Your World (feat. R. Kelly)
    378. Jesse Kinch – Billie Jean (Rising Star Performance)
    390. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    430. G.R.L. – Ugly Heart
    494. Daughtry – Battleships
    505. David Nail – Whatever She’s Got
    509. Jennifer Hudson – I Can’t Describe (The Way I Feel) [feat. T.I.]
    510. Jennifer Hudson – Walk It Out (feat. Timbaland)
    519. Ella Henderson – Ghost
    561. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse
    597. Daughtry – Waiting for Superman
    602. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    645. Alex & Sierra – Scarecrow
    701. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    703. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    725. Carrie Underwood – How Great Thou Art
    747. Little Mix – Salute
    797. Fifth Harmony – Miss Movin’ On
    804. Mandisa – Overcomer
    821. Olly Murs – Dance With Me Tonight
    822. Avicii – Addicted To You
    858. Colton Dixon – More of You
    864. Colton Dixon – More of You
    867. One Direction – Midnight Memories
    896. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    1003. Alex & Sierra – Little Do You Know
    1031. Fifth Harmony – Me & My Girls
    1051. Cassadee Pope – The Animal In Me
    1078. Cher Lloyd – Want U Back
    1084. Little Mix – Move
    1094. Carrie Underwood – See You Again
    1129. Jennifer Hudson – It’s Your World (feat. R. Kelly)
    1154. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    1211. Mandisa – Good Morning (feat. TobyMac)
    1231. Alex & Sierra – Just Kids
    1260. Cher Lloyd – Oath (feat. Becky G)
    1308. Carrie Underwood – Good Girl
    1329. One Direction – Little Things
    1363. One Direction – Happily
    1398. Colton Dixon – Dare To Believe
    1423. Little Mix – Wings
    1433. One Direction – One Thing
    1439. One Direction – Kiss You
    1480. One Direction – Rock Me
    1496. Carrie Underwood – Jesus, Take the Wheel

    Albums:
    6. Colton Dixon – Anchor
    51. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. III
    59. Jennifer Hudson – JHUD
    79. One Direction – Midnight Memories (Deluxe Edition)
    164. Caleb Johnson – Testify
    249. Avicii – True
    289. Home Free – Crazy Life
    290. Alex & Sierra – It’s About Us
    309. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    337. Kris Allen – Horizons
    361. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. II
    376. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    426. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    494. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    503. Danny Gokey – Hope in Front of Me
    510. Daughtry – Baptized (Deluxe Version)
    531. Fifth Harmony – Better Together – EP
    589. Phillip Phillips – Behind the Light (Deluxe Version)
    617. Phillip Phillips – The World From the Side of the Moon (Deluxe Version)
    642. One Direction – Midnight Memories
    671. One Direction – Take Me Home
    690. Scotty McCreery – See You Tonight
    723. Little Mix – Salute (Deluxe Edition)
    794. Melanie Martinez – Dollhouse – EP
    891. Cassadee Pope – Frame By Frame
    943. Kelly Clarkson – Greatest Hits – Chapter One
    1052. Daughtry – Daughtry
    1106. Various Artists – NOW That’s What I Call Country, Vol. 7
    1129. Pentatonix – PTXmas (Deluxe Edition)
    1173. David Nail – I’m a Fire
    1179. Cher Lloyd – Sorry I’m Late
    1213. One Direction – Up All Night
    1456. G.R.L. – G.R.L. – EP
    1463. Carrie Underwood – Play On

  • springboard2

    Monitored Adds from formats reporting on Monday:
    Christian AC:
    2 COLTON DIXON More Of You Sparrow
    1 TIM HALPERIN Heal This Broken Heart —
    Country:
    8 RAELYNN God Made Girls Valory
    4 DAVID NAIL Kiss You Tonight MCA Nashville
    3 SCOTTY MCCREERY Feelin’ It 19-Interscope-Mercury
    HAC:
    11 G.R.L. Ugly Heart Kemosabe-RCA
    5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Unpack Your Heart 19-Interscope
    3 ELLA HENDERSON Ghost SYCO-Columbia
    3 ALEX & SIERRA Scarecrow Columbia
    1 DAUGHTRY Battleships RCA

  • elliegrll

    It’s speculation, but we can make some educated guesses based on history, and the number of people who are coming out to see Cook’s concerts.

  • elliegrll

    I find it highly unlikely that one brick and mortar store has 1000 units of Caleb’s cd.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    The normal retail stock level for this album would be 5 copies, if it’s stocked at all.

    Plus Soundscan ignores bulk buys at retail in its official numbers. Places that need 1000 copies of anything go to a distributor.

  • girlygirl

    That sounds unlikely, since stores don’t have 1000 of albums in stock at one time — not even for the big name artists.

  • springboard2

    Speculating that Cook is unlikely to top the charts would be educated speculation, but speculating that Cook will sell less than Kris is a gamble because they are both likely to end up with low sales to a level that would vary according to circumstances that are unknown in Cook’s case.

  • ptebwwong

    As a country fan, David Nail has usually taken 8+ months for his singles to peak. Even though he’s had multiple #1’s, his songs have always been slow-moving.

  • jan

    A good example – William Hung, season 3, had an album that sold 200,000.

  • ptebwwong

    I expected it for Caleb, but was hopeful at least for the sake of Idol. I also expected low #’s for Kris because he’s on an indie label, basically no promo, lack of retailers selling his album, etc.

    As for Cook, he wrote KYT, but unless you’re a Cook or Nail fan would you know that? You’re not hearing Cook’s voice on the radio. I don’t think it’s necessarily true that if a song he wrote becomes a hit that it will help him if he releases a 3rd album.

  • Corrine43180

    Is Kris on an Indie label or did he release independently? Does he have a distribution deal?

  • springboard2

    If he had won S5…but he wouldn’t have.Top 6 as best, or perhaps not even making top 12.
    And as much as his sales are low because Idol is on the decline, the lack of interesting contestants, particularly top 3, has contributed to its demise.
    Let’s say that if the latest cohorts had featured in the first Idol seasons, the show is unlikely to ever have taken off the ground.

  • George

    I said he was in retail. Not at a store (although the thought of him working at a chain amused me). Of course no single store would carry that many of one CD. His company stocks and distributes for online and brick and mortar stores.
    Anyway, that’s what he said. Who knows. My point was that there may be more demand for the CD than some assume.
    I personally didn’t think it was that bad. Not that I bought it.

  • elliegrll

    I’m not saying that we can make a guess that David will perform worse than Kris, but I do think that we can make a guess based on David’s current situation. As with Kris, we can look at the attendance figures for David’s concerts, and come to the conclusion that something needs to change in order for David to make any type of impact with his next album.

  • elliegrll

    Something has to happen to push the demand. Unfortunately for Caleb, he didn’t receive a lot of exposure last week, and neither did his album, so I don’t see how the demand increased. His debut numbers will not cause retailers to restock the album, and neither will the lack of buzz.

  • Tess Herself

    If Colton had pre-orders they are now registering. #5 on a week where there isn’t any buzz for new albums is nothing to crow about. And I-tunes measures nothing but relations between one album and another at a precise moment in time. If Colton holds to the top 10 for a week he may sell above 20k. Otherwise, nope.

  • Karen C

    The number and amount of people at Cook’s concerts is about the same as it was from his last tour in 2011, so i would expect similar album sales, which would be terrific for an indie artists. More if a song does get on the radio and is a hit.

  • Corrine43180

    Have we gotten attendance numbers for Davids recent concerts? I thought he was drawing pretty well.

  • halo9125

    Maybe Interscope bought them all back to make the numbers looked good.

  • Guest

    I was coming from the perspective if Cook had the same scenario as Kris – indie release with little promo and radio single, the outcome would not be much different. And at this point, Cook has no label.

    Of course anything is possible. Just like it’s possible Caleb could remerge. Look at what happened to Danny Gokey. Idol popularity has shown to be very fleeting.

  • Karen C

    David headlined a 40 city club tour last fall without a new album to support, and it sold well. He is touring about the same amount that Kris is.

  • girlygirl

    I’m confused. So online & brick & mortar stores order from the company your friends works at? If that’s the case, those wouldn’t be actual sales that SoundScan would count. And it also sounds like those 1000 copies could have been distributed to a bunch of places, not to one place. Or maybe they were sent to what will be Caleb’s website store. Who knows?

    The bottom line is, there is no real public demand for the cd.

  • elliegrll

    “Well” must be subjective. I don’t look at someone who is bringing in several hundred people at the most to concerts, and come to the conclusion that that person has a good shot at selling a lot of albums. I really don’t come to that conclusion, if the artist isn’t performing in front of new people, so that he has the chance to expand his base. That goes for both Kris and David.

  • Corrine43180

    It’s great that Danny is performing well on the Christian airplay charts. Do we have any info on album sales?

  • girlygirl

    Caleb has a song that is moving up the CCM radio charts. Which automatically gives him at least a small boost in terms of exposure or buzz. And when all 3 were still in the pre-order phase, his album consistently was higher on iTunes than either Kris or Caleb. When I looked on amazon, he was ahead of them at times, as well. I don’t think he’s going to sell a huge amount of albums, but I do think he is going to end up having the highest 1st week sales of these 3 guys.

  • girlygirl

    The only album sales I have seen for Danny are his first week #s, which were somewhere between 7-8K.

  • Incipit

    “…we can look at the attendance figures for David’s concerts.”

    Except, I don’t think we have too many of those, do we? 2013 had five one-off shows, and thirty-seven shows in the Club Tour – – 2014 has seven remaining Club Tour dates and twelve on-offs so far – and none of them with an album to support –

    And yet I could maybe come up with a few concrete data points out of 60 shows in all – not counting the eight shows on the Military Base Tour in Europe – – the rest would be guestimations and speculations. I don’t think that’s enough data to project from. JMO.

  • Amy Beth

    It’s always been a symbiotic relationship. Interesting contestants help the show, but there’s no denying that at its peak popularity, the show made some contestants seem more interesting than they might otherwise be perceived.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Is Cook’s fandom absolutely sure that it wants to predict a 45k open and about 130k total album cycle in the absence of a radio hit?

    I ask because that would be extremely unusual on the transition album from major-label to independent release for an Idol alumnus. It’s great to have faith in an artist, but expectations in line with industry norms tend to lead to fewer disappointments.

    If this is truly what Cook’s fandom believes is the most likely outcome, then I guess we’ll see if the actual sales hit that. It’d be great if they did.

  • girlygirl

    I would be stunned if David ends up selling anywhere near 46K his 1st week for album #3. I don’t think that matters that much how many people go to the concerts. Kris draws the same number of people at his shows as he did in 2012, and his sales are going to drop significantly. And TBH, it’s unlikely David will get a song on the radio. The percentage of songs on the radio that are by artists that have no label is miniscule (well below 1%).

  • Corrine43180

    I think you mean Colton, not Caleb. Caleb’s songs haven’t even gotten close enough to sniff at radio spins.

  • girlygirl

    I expect David to outsell Kris, for the simple reason that he always has. However I do expect his sales to drop significantly from album #2 unless something happens that results in a lot of buzz for him. Which is always possible, of course, but at this point would be a longshot.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    KA released independently with a distribution deal. The “label” name currently used at Amazon appears to match a distributor, though not one of the huge ones.

    Distribution deals can differ a lot in the details. Gokey’s with BMG appears to include a radio push, but that’s often not part of the deal.

  • girlygirl

    oops! lol. I fixed the post. thanks :)

  • Q3

    Got to say I think that Caleb has dismal sales because he is a dismal winner — his crude statements, not putting anything into his concert performances, trashing a favorite past winner (Cook), etc. and he foolishly keeps saying he is a “real rocker”. “Real” rockers do not stay they are “real” — they prove it when they perform.

    Sorry, but I expect Idol winners to be gracious. Both Kris and David were classy winners. And Kris has stayed that way even having to live with the questions surrounding his win [“Adam should have won.” and the “guy who beat Adam Lambert”]

    David is very talented. He still has a lot of fans. His third album is very likely to be both better than Calebs and sell more (although that will not take much.)

    And Kris’ album is not in wide retail distribution — just selected Walmarts and BBuys. From what I can tell we do not have iTunes sales in the HDD number yet. So we will see later today what he sold.

  • Trina

    Its entirely possible both Kris and Dav’d numbers will be so low we may not even see them reported. I’m actually pretty shocked these comparisons are even happening with 2 winners from different season being so many years from AI and both struggling going the indie route. If one sell a thousand more than the other will it really matter in the long run? We dont even know when David’s album will actually see the light of day.

  • elliegrll

    The difference between Colton and many of the other favored snowflakes is that Colton managed to make an impact in his genre, so you can’t compare his numbers to people who weren’t able to find an audience.

    Unlike other alums, Colton didn’t spend his post AI time performing in font of and being promoted to AI fans. Colton went on the mega church circuit tour after season 10, so his audience was already aware of his name long before he released an album.

    BTW, Itunes isn’t going to give us a great idea about how well a Christian music artist is selling.

  • wordnerdarchie

    This fan doesn’t… at all. I’d be happy w/Candace’s numbers to be honest.

  • suenigma

    I agree entirely with this assessment. Probably similar percentage difference as their last albums, and likely not a shock to either one.

  • wordnerdarchie

    It depends what area of the country he’s in. He didn’t seem to have a following in some of the Southern States such as Alabama & NC. But put him in NY/NJ it’s a different story.

  • justmefornow

    I wish I could “upvote” this more than once.

    As someone who is “in and out” of the bubble (I have only watched a handful of seasons, none of the early ones) I must say some of those earlier winners (and higher placed finalists), should be REALLY thankful they were on a popular show in it’s prime, lol.

    Today, coming off the show, most would be in the same boat, declining viewers = lower sales, bottom line.

  • Q3

    Kris’ album was released on DogBear Records (independent release) but through +180 Records which is an independent label that has distribution deals. So I guess you would say he has a distribution deal, just not with major label distribution. There may be some other distribution deal in addition to +180 Records, but that is what is listed.

    In any case, the album has retail CD distribution and is being stocked in some stores in the US, not just digital. I am impressed by the distribution he got for this album.

  • wordnerdarchie

    I was pleasantly surprised that it was in stock at my local Walmart (when its website said I had to order it & could get delivery to the store). Caleb’s CD was also there. Both were in the New Release section

  • springboard2

    Yes, I agree. However, past contestants were at least interesting at the show level, even if not in the real world.

  • Lastwaltz

    I’d love to know what David thinks is a good outcome, but we never, ever will, lol.

  • Lastwaltz

    The venues on the East Coast last fall were better than “several hundred” people. With the exception of the Middle East in Cambridge, the places felt pretty packed to me.

  • suenigma

    Agreed on all points. Not all of this debacle is on Caleb, but certainly some of it is. A little charm and the ability to articulate effectively goes a long way.

  • Guest

    If Cook had to compete in Season 13, his situation would be very different. Cook is no longer relevant in the industry. He has no label and radio barely played his music from his last album. His Idol appearance was probably his biggest TV job he had in a while. Whether some is gracious or how popular they were on Idol has no bearing on how they will do. Danny Gokey has been constantly reamed for being egotistical delusional, a moron. 5 yrs after Idol, he has a #1 record.

  • jan

    I say this as an avid Cook fan. I think 45K is a very unrealistic projection unless lightening strikes with the single. The last album had major label promotion even if it seemed inadequate. I would be happy with 10K – and don’t even expect that. (I will keep hoping for that lightening strike though – and then you can all laugh at me and my bad sales projection.)

  • Incipit

    “He didn’t seem to have a following in some of the Southern States such as Alabama & NC. But put him in NY/NJ it’s a different story.”

    That is for sure! Look at both the Irving Plaza NYC shows, for instance.

    I guess this was a case where the Southern vote was NOT the deciding factor, back in 2008. *Snerk*
    /facetious remark

  • jan

    David may or may not outsell Kris. (How is that for a surefire projection.) Kris has really put himself out there and did everything he could to promote sales. If David doesn’t make a similar effort, then he may very well sell less. It will all depend on sales promotion.

  • Incipit

    “If this is…”

    That’s an “IF’ – “THEN” you don’t have to worry about, IMO. There is no group consensus on a projection.

    In fact, I have not seen a Fandom wide projection – doubt I ever will – but I can say the Numbernerds who are fans of DC all prefer to err on the side of caution – and preach “Manage your expectations” – and all have clear rationales for any number they may project – when we are MUCH closer to a confirmed drop date.

    All is quiet on the Western Front – so far.

  • elliegrll

    Gokey has a number one song. I do agree with you that success isn’t predicated on how popular someone was during their time on AI. Someone can fail to catch on with the core AI audience, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t be successful in their own genre.

  • springboard2

    That goes for both Kris and David.

    But you are the one who mentioned Cook’s concert attendance to support the point that we can make an educated guess about who will sell more.
    If their concert audience is similar, it can’t be used as a factor to make predictions about sales differences.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Well, he said in show banter prior to album #2 that it was going to be “bigger” than album #1, so unless he meant “louder” or “more layers on the tracks” by “bigger,” there are some clues there. (It was the NYE show at the casino resort outside Lake Elsinore — I was there and literally cringed, as higher sales on the sophomore album is a Clarkson-only thing.)

    So you may want to pay attention to show banter… or just ask him.

  • MissMyEm

    Colton is on a Christian label, Caleb on a major label and the current American Idol winner, whose label can afford to foot the bill for everything. Kris is doing everything on his own. Distribution also plays an important part in sales. At Best Buy, there were a heck of a lot more Caleb CDs in the stores than there were of Kris’ and Caleb’s was on the front rack where everyone could see it, whereas Kris’s was shoved in the back. I think considering what Caleb and Colton, both with major labels are doing, and Caleb being the current American Idol winner, that Kris is probably on par with these two. Colton is also getting airplay on CCM stations and I’m sure, with a label pushing it, Caleb will as well.

  • wordnerdarchie

    I guess this was a case where the Southern vote was NOT the deciding factor, back in 2008

    Haha – you’ve outdone yourself with that one!

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Colton is also getting airplay on CCM stations and I’m sure, with a label pushing it, Caleb will as well.

    ??? There is zero sign of Interscope having any interest in pushing Caleb Johnson’s single to radio.

    We’ve seen other UMG labels not bother to push other singing-show winners to radio, so I’m not sure why Interscope would suddenly change its mind now, when album sales hurt their case for radio play.

    Had Interscope given two figs about radio play for Johnson, they would have used “Another Life” as the single. It’s the only song that had any vestige of a chance.

    Johnson is polarizing, but he’s also getting label treatment that makes RCA’s launch of Lee DeWyze look exuberantly enthusiastic.

  • H.A.

    I was under the impression that Cook is releasing a single next month with album drop in early 2015. That’s sounds to me like there might be some push for radio play. I hope so.

  • elliegrll

    I mentioned the concert numbers, and not in comparison to Kris, to say that you can look at how many people Cook is drawing, and come to a conclusion about how many albums he will sell. Instead of looking at it in terms of whether X number is drawing “well”, see it as how can you expect someone who is averaging several hundred people per show tho move more than 10K albums. In order for the number to be higher, something will have to change.

  • Amy Beth

    How many people do you think even heard Caleb’s comments? Apart from the small number of people actively looking for AI content(sorry MJ), your average person has no idea whether Caleb is gracious or not. That’s the problem, not that he isn’t behaving well.

  • Incipit

    “If Cook had to compete in Season 13, his situation would be very different.”

    OMG – What an Imported Can Of Gourmet Worms!

    Season 13? The all vanilla, all the time, Season 13? And David Cook ‘without’ the restrictions of narrow specific themes every.damn.week – and the option to sing in his own genre instead of meeting the expectation of pulling a Harry Houdini every week, that no one else was expected to do? Whoah.

    No idea how that would turn out – but I think without the Theme week challenges and those high expectations he would have just created a challenge of his own – past history shows he likes to work under pressure, and used his own performances as the bar – and even upped the danger level when he didn’t even have to – like that Last song on the Finale.

    He’s a very competitive person (as both he and Michael Johns have told us) – and people who don’t care for heights who step off of perfectly good buildings for charity appear to like challenges. So he would have to have one.

    But I think it would make for interesting speculation – if I were a speculator.

    JMO.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    If Cook were immune to industry forces, his own sales wouldn’t follow a pretty standard pattern for Idol alumni (with a sophomore sales drop percentage that looks more like alumni who went indie on the second album rather than the first).

    I hope Cook didn’t come into those mentoring sessions with the attitude that he was massively superior to the current crop and would easily have garnered the huge fanbases they weren’t getting.

  • elliegrll

    Kris has been off of AI for five years, so his numbers have nothing to do with Caleb or Colton’s. Kris’ numbers speak to his ability to find an audience over the last five years, the same can be said about Coton’s numbers.

  • Incipit

    “I hope Cook didn’t come into those mentoring sessions with the attitude that he was massively superior to the current crop…”

    Twilight Zone? Where is the precedent to worry about such a thing? From anything DC has ever said about fellow members of the Idol family – we are to suspect a superiority complex suddenly grafted full blown onto his personality? I think you can safely save that hope.

    JMO. Of course.

  • wordnerdarchie

    This just popped up today on Paiste Cymbals FB page

    Paiste artist @NickAdamsdrums has been touring with David Cook (@theDavidCook). David is releasing new music in September; new dates forthcoming. Nick recently tracked drums for Josiah Hawley Music who was on team Usher on season 4 of 4 of The Voice.

    I don’t know if they know something that we don’t, but just bringing the info. Sometimes we find information regarding Cook from non-official sources. We’ll have to wait & see if this post gets deleted. (Recalling Nick’s Calendar fiasco)
    Edited to add link.
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152131611596653

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Well, his fanbase gets it from somewhere, and he’s the obvious role model.

    For years, I’ve argued that Cook’s declining sales were predictable in line with industry trends and not something he could shift massively one way or the other, no matter how savvy his choices. I still think I’m right — but as fanbase wisdom shifts to the position that industry forces like the decline of Idol wouldn’t have affected him, I’m thinking maybe it’s time to reconsider that question and put the sales declines squarely on his shoulders for his musical choices.

  • Lastwaltz

    Oh those heady days in early 2011, lol. Was wondering about his expectations for record #3, though. And to be honest, I think he did mean “more [musical] layers” re TLM in that banter, but eh, who knows.

  • Larc

    Truth is most people have no idea Caleb even exists. Many who know about him likely aren’t interested enough to bother noticing whether he’s a horse’s ass or not.

  • Sassycatz

    Yeah, I always thought that was kind of counterintuitive. We often talk about how relatively popular Idol has been over the years in the South and how many southerners in comparison to their competitors have won the show, but David draws much better in the northern parts of the U.S., especially. Maybe it’s the type of music he does, i.e., NOT country, but I just always found that interesting.

  • H.A.

    *fingers crossed* for a radio push plan. I would be happy with top 20 anything as long as it gets his name out there.

  • Incipit

    If Cook were immune to industry forces…”

    That “IF” is a rather large hypothesis. Has someone argued that DC is immune to Industry forces? Not logical.

    I don’t know where you are collecting these Official Fan Base Positions and Bits of Wisdom from, Eilonwy.

    They are very strange and also odd and unusual – like a collectible bit of unmarked china in a Curio Shop – but I have not seen them on display at DCO – which is the only source I know of that may be thought to have an official attitude.

    The fandom, collectively, is not answerable for random posts or bursts of misguided enthusiasm – which, while ‘sweet’, are not logical – so I wouldn’t even try to justify a position I don’t recognize as tenable.

    JMO.

  • Guest

    Sorry, but not even Saint Cook can triumphant from a season that had it’s worse ratings, bad producer choices, bad tour, bad publicity. No one person is ever responsible for the success of their season and no one person is responsible for it’s failure.

  • girlygirl

    He has a #1 album in a small niche genre. It’s great for Danny and is a sign that he is being accepted by CCM audiences. But let’s not act like he’s selling a ton of albums, because he’s not. He sold less than 8K in his 1st week.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    That sounds like timing for a radio push, since a September single on a winter/spring album means either the song outlasts the holiday freeze (which can happen, see, e.g., Gavin DeGraw) or if it doesn’t do well, there’s time for a second try with a different song in January. In today’s radio market, I strongly favor leaving time for either a slow burner or a Plan B, as either is more likely than shooting up the charts if you’re not one of Clear Channel’s pay-to-play darlings.

    That means he got one heck of a good distribution deal.

  • Incipit

    I’m bringing your goal posts back for you – they had moved to the 10 yard line. No need to be sorry about it, though – they were large and easily found.

    Ya know, Someone has to win, even in a terrible season – but no one said that someone would be David, if he were in Season 13 – And no one said any one person was responsible for a season’s success or failure. You are arguing a position that no one has even taken.

    Your Can of Worms postulated him in the cast we had last season – I don’t know who you were eliminating to make room for him in this scenario – you didn’t say. And I don’t speculate – I simply thought it would be interesting for those who do enjoy speculation as a pastime and amusement … for the reasons I stated.

  • Lastwaltz

    Hope so : )

  • standtotheright

    Well, his fanbase gets it from somewhere

    Exceptionalism arguments? That would be the behavior of minorities in every other fandom on the internet. Something which Billboard blatantly used just a few weeks ago in their “Tell Us Why Your Fandom is the Bestest and your Artist is the Most Perfect in the Universe” clickbait bracket.
    I assume significant numbers of the fans of those bands also eyerolled and kept moving, because that’s all the response that those outliers deserved.

  • Incipit

    That would be something to hope for. I know during the banter at Starved Rock on Friday David said – the question he got asked the most talking to M&G people is when is the new music coming out – and apparently *Soon* is a word he’s not allowed to use. So yes, the album is finished tracking, and a single will be coming out in a month or two..with the album to follow. That’s the very latest word from the Source.

    I recall he previously said the team discussed sending one of the last singles to radio – and decided it was prohibitively expensive (he named a figure for pushing a track to HAC) – but I can postulate that with an album to sell also, they may find it worth while.

    Fingers crossed as well, wordnerdarchie.

  • girlygirl

    I don’t see anything that suggests a push for radio play. Anyone can release new music at any time. All this post below says is that he plans to release new music next month and will be touring.

  • girlygirl

    does he have a couple of million dollars lying around? Because that is how much I’ve been told by multiple music industry insiders that it costs to push a single to radio these days.

  • girlygirl

    um, where exactly does it say that he even has a distribution deal? Am I missing something? All I see is a post that claims he’s releasing new music in September. Where is the part about him having any kind of distribution deal?

  • Q3

    I read them and so it is enough for me. He said the same thing about being the first real rocker to win Idol on more than one occasion and in several interviews.

    He had an opportunity to put out a message in the press when he won Idol — and his big message was he was a “real rocker” and the first rocker to win Idol.

    He had an opportunity to impress tens of thousand of people on the Idol tour and IMO looks like he “phoned it in”.

    And the “small” number of people actively looking for AI content buy Idol music and tend to like David Cook and the other winners. JMO he would have been better off to just not talk about Cook.

  • Genna Baker

    “but as fanbase wisdom shifts to the position that industry forces like the decline of Idol wouldn’t have affected him…”
    I’m in that “fanbase”, but I’m totally unaware of this enmasse wisdom shift. Did you have some actual source to support this conclusion, or did you see one or two overly-enthusiastic comments somewhere and simply apply it to an entire group, you know, using sound scientific procedure?

  • Q3

    No one knows what David Cook would have been like if he was on Season 13 and it has nothing to do with the fact that Caleb alienated a lot of Idol fans who buy Idol music. If he had been more gracious, he would have sold at least one more album — I would have bought one. First winner’s album I passed on.

  • tierbee

    I took “bigger” as being bigger in scope, or ambition, or whatever vs. bigger numbers. I don’t know that he’s ever said much about numbers, but then again I don’t always pay good attention :)

  • H.A.

    Well, if Kris has a distribution deal David better or else something is wrong. I bet he does. With a new management team they better be working for their money.

  • tierbee

    Do you get your generalization of what the fanbase thinks from the fanbase in general, or from a few select fans who think he’s the best thing to ever be the best thing? You seem to be picking out tiny bits of lint and trying to knit them into a big “David Cook is an arrogant jerk” blanket.

  • Corrine43180

    Isn’t it the same manager, she just left XIX?

  • girlygirl

    Kris’ distribution deal doesn’t include a push to radio. It didn’t even include distribution to all Wal-Marts, Best Buys, etc — just a select few of them. So even assuming David has some sort of distribution deal, there is no guarantee that it would include any sort of push to radio or anything other than simply distributing the album to stores.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    When Cook wrapped up last fall’s tour, he told fans that a distribution deal was simply a matter of getting contracts finalized while he was also finishing recording the album. I know I’m not imagining that, as I wondered at the time about the prudence of counting chickens as-yet-unhatched — but at the same time, he had been a popular Idol and usually doesn’t talk out of turn, so if he was confident, there had to be a reason.

    Earlier in the fall (or maybe summer), he’d said that a radio push was contingent on a distribution deal where the deal partner picked up those costs. Sometimes it happens that way (see, e.g., Gokey’s deal with BMG).

  • Corrine43180

    C’mon now, I flove Cookie and I can admit that the man has no shortage in the ego department and more power to him.

  • girlygirl

    I doubt it costs anywhere near as much to push a song to CCM radio as it does to mainstream radio. Is David going to find a distributor willing to drop a minimum of $1 million on pushing a single to radio? Because that’s how much it costs to get any kind of significant radio airplay.

    It sounds like David doesn’t want to spend his own money on pushing a single to radio. IMO it would be a longshot if he finds a distributor willing to spend that type of money on him. If he does, good for him. But I think his fans are setting themselves up for disappointment.

  • wordnerdarchie

    She now works for Gellman Mgmt – so it is DC’s management company now.

  • justmefornow

    As much as Caleb annoys the crap out of me, his comments aren’t anywhere near his biggest problem.

    His biggest problem is no radio presence and no plan for one it seems. Also just as important, his preferred musical genre has shown zero interest in him or his music. At least previous winners had a nice cushion of first sales from a large AI fan base, even if their preferred genres showed little interest as well.

    So, now what?

  • Sassycatz

    I think everyone in the business, including former Idols, suffers from a lack of casual sales that used to come via brick and mortar stores, where people just peruse shelves and pick up an album they didn’t even know they were going to buy. That kind of thing doesn’t happen as much online, I think. Unless the youngun’s have figured out a way of shopping that’s equivalent. (I haven’t been able to duplicate it.)
    The same problem has struck the book industry. I can’t tell you how many books I bought strictly through browsing my old Borders, just because the cover caught my eye on a display table or the synopsis seemed intriguing. I miss those days. *sniff.*

  • Incipit

    does he have $1-2 million lying around?

    I have no idea, girlygirl. All I have for a cite is David saying he could afford to put the album out himself, and wouldn’t be using kickstarter…and the number he gave to push a song to radio was for HAC – not CHR – so I don’t believe it went over One Mil. I can check the archives. It’s still a lot of lettuce for a roll of the dice.

    Bu that’s the point, I think. The money paid to radio stations has no guarantee of a return – so it’s a gamble that one single would be difficult to justify. If there’s any kind of distribution deal as Eilonwy postulated above – or any one of those firms involved who are hired to push Indie Music – that may change the parameters and make a radio push more likely – if the single is supporting a whole album.

    No way to know, as usual – and practicing playing Patience on a Rock is edifying, I suppose – but I really want some new music! – So, fingers crossed.

  • Lastwaltz

    He spent his own money making the record, so he certainly has invested a lot of dough in it already.

  • girlygirl

    Well I’m sure you will be getting new music soon. But my point is that releasing music and pushing it to radio are two entirely separate things. It is pretty easy and cheap to release music to iTunes, etc. I did it myself (through TuneCore) and it cost me a whopping $20. Lol. It’s all the extra things that surround promoting a song or an artist that cost a lot of $.

    But good luck to David and his fans. Hopefully the music will be released soon and he will get some sort of decent distribution deal.

  • standtotheright

    He gets a job fronting a legacy band or a regional production of Rock of Ages, the same thing that everyone has been saying he should do since mid-season.
    Hopefully it will take him less time to get there than it took Gokey to go CCM and collect some genre hits. Sometimes the crowds actually do have some wisdom in these matters.

  • girlygirl

    No doubt. But again, he’s doing the same thing Kris and lots of other indie artists have done — spending their own money to make an album. The thing is, it doesn’t cost anywhere near as much money to make an album as it does to promote it (unless you are working with all of these expensive producers or something, anyway). Not if you are talking significant promo in the mainstream music industry. The fact that David has said that he isn’t going to spend his own money on a radio push underscores this. Not wanting to or being unable to spent $$$ on radio promo is one major reason why very few independent artists get any radio play. It has very little to do with the quality of the songs.

  • George

    He (well the company he works for) distributes to several places. That particular order was apparently for Target. Maybe the fine ladies who frequent Target find a young brash upstart endearing. I am just learning about the music industry so forgive me if I get my second hand info off a bit.

  • wordnerdarchie

    Ok, now Nick has RT the Paiste Cymbals tweet that I posted earlier. Hmm.

  • Incipit

    Yes, I agree, “More power to him”

    I prefer an artist who knows their own capabilities and what they can do – I want them to take charge on the stage and deliver a confident performance. However a healthy ego does not equal a superiority complex…which we have never had evidence of. Nor has he ever acted as if he could take the fans for granted. That was my point.

  • Incipit

    You have a point, Sassycatz – random purchases of music and books that caught my eye are no longer much of a factor, with iTunes and Amazon – – and it may be more economical – but it’s not as much fun.

    I wonder how one could quantify the loss of casual sales and impulse purchases…it’s obviously a factor. IMO.

  • girlygirl

    no worries :) I have a feeling that the order may have been for a bunch of Target stores, though. Not just one specific store.

  • girlygirl

    Has Tim Halperin gone the CCM route?

  • Zombie CYE

    The *bigger* reference was clearly not to numbers. IIRC in another interview Cook said he wanted it to be *big* as in *cinematic*.

  • standtotheright

    To be fair, it also has nothing to do with the thrust of the argument, which is about Johnson having low sales because of the state of the industry and AI within it.
    While Fantasy League AI may be a diverting amusement, it’s a digression that doesn’t really fit the numbers thread.

  • ptebwwong

    When I looked it up, Tim’s album came out Feb. of this year. This single is on it. It seems that the album is labeled as piano pop or singer-songwriter. However, due to his faith some of the stuff he writes about would be in the CCM genre.

  • wordnerdarchie

    When does the last update usually come in? I’m still hoping Kris might sneak on.

  • windmills

    Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There were 3 Billboard recurrents this week: Joe Nichols’s Yeah out of the t10, Billy Currington’s We Are Tonight out of the t10, and Eric Paslay’s Song About A Girl out of the t15. At Mediabase/Aircheck, Joe Nichols went recurrent out of the t10, Cassadee’s I Wish I Could Break Your Heart went recurrent out of the t50, and Jake Owen’s non-single Summer Jam and Kip Moore Dirt Road dropped out of the t50. This coming week at Billboard, there’s a possibility Kacey Musgraves’s Keep It To Yourself could go recurrent out of the t40, and Kip Moore’s Dirt Road will go recurrent out of the t55. I think Lee Brice’s I Don’t Dance will stay on for 1 more week, so there will likely be no recurrents out of the t10. At Mediabase/Aircheck, Billy Currington will go recurrent out of the t15 and Eric Paslay will go recurrent out of the t25 for a total of 2 recurrents.

    Miranda/Carrie’s Somethin Bad had a good week at Billboard gaining 1.995 million AIs and moving up 4 spots to #13 in its 13th week charting (10th since being sent to radio). Miranda/Carrie actually caught up with Chase Rice’s crapfest by outgaining by 425k but Chase’s song is at #12 – either because it had a few thousandths more in AIs or because its spin bullet was bigger. I expect Chase’s song to stay ahead this week because it’s his album release week. I’d like to think this week is Ready Set Roll’s last bulleted week but also have a hard time imagining Columbia Nashville giving up without a t10 peak. SB actually increased its lead on Jason Aldean’s lead single to 776k AIs by outgaining it by 636k AIs. I think Jason’s single could pass this week though. There are no other likely passers. SB also closed to 465k behind the Brantley Gilbert brodown after outgaining it by 835k. So SB could finish the week anywhere between #12 and #14 Billboard this week.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, SB had an OK week gaining 443 points and moving up a spot to #15. SB closed to within 5 points of the Swon Brothers’s single and has passed since Sunday. Jason Aldean’s single closed to 696 points behind after outgaining SB by 330 points. The update this morning makes it seem like he’s likely to pass this week. Meanwhile Chase Rice repassed and now leads by 88 points, and I expect him to stay ahead this week for reasons already mentioned. The Brantley brodown now leads by 598 points after SB outgained it by 131 points. Look for SB to finish the week at #14 or #15.

    The Swon Brothers’s Later On had a slow week at Billboard gaining 442k AIs and moving up a spot to #15 Billboard in their 26th week charting despite Miranda/Carrie and Jason Aldean passing. LO has enough of a cushion that it is probably safe from being passed this week, though Blake’s new single could make it close. So look for LO to finish the week at #15. I’m going to say, again, that I really don’t know what Arista Nashville is doing here – LO seems like it’s slowing down, but there are no signs of an album or even an EP release from these guys. Granted, LO isn’t exactly selling up to its level of airplay, but you’d think the label would want to get some product out there anyway to take advantage of a hit.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase LO had a flat week gaining 40 points and moving up a spot to #14. Since Sunday, the Miranda/Carrie duet has passed. Jason Aldean’s single started the week 701 points behind after outgaining LO by 733 points, and this morning’s update makes it seem like he could pass this week. So look for LO to finish the week at either #14 or #15.

    Scotty’s Feelin It had a good week gainiing 897k AIs with the help of the 2nd wave of t30 countdown spins and moving up 2 spots to #27 Billboard in its 19th week. David Nail’s Kiss You Tonight closed to 691k AIs behind after outgaining FI by 342k AIs. There’s an outside chance KYT could pass this week due to the 2nd wave of t30 countdown spins, but I’m going to guess that FI will stay ahead. Chase Bryant is getting the Clear Channel On The Verge Treatment which means he’s likely to pass this week (he’s currently 1.657 million AIs behind). Blake will debut ahead with his new lead single. So look for FI to finish the week down a couple spots to #29.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, FI had a good week gaining 586 points and moving up a spot to #28. Maddie & Tae closed to within 266 points behind after outgaining FI by 550 points. They will start picking up t30 countdown spins this weekend, though that impact will be seen more on the next 2 Aircheck charts following next week. I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed FI this week. There’s also Chase Bryant and his On The Verge treatment to deal with now – he gained 2498 points last week and trails FI by 1361 points, so he may pass this week. And then there’s the debuting Blake Shelton, who is likely to debut t30, probably in the #25-#27 range if Florida Georgia Line’s and Jason Aldean’s recent debuts are any indication. The good news is that with 2 recurrents in front, FI can absorb 3 passes and still keep its t30 spot. Look for FI to finish the week at #28 or #29.

    David Nail’s Kiss You Tonight (cowritten by David Cook) had a very good week, gaining 1.297 million AIs with the help of the 1st wave of t30 countdown spins and moving up 3 spots to #28 Billboard in its 23rd week charting. Another wave of countdown spins is coming this week. However, Chase Bryant will likely ride his Clear Channel On The Verge treatment to a pass this week and Blake will debut in front. KYT closed to 691k behind Scotty’s FI and could pass this week, but I’m guessing FI will stay ahead. Look for KYT to finish the week down a couple spots to #30.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, KYT had a decent week, gaining 380 points and absorbing a pass by Maddie & Tae to retain the #30 spot. Chase Bryant and Blake will likely pass this week but that should be it, and the 2 recurrents will offset their passing to allow KYT to retain its t30 spot. Look for KYT to finish the week at #30.

    RaeLynn’s God Made Girls had a slowish week at Billboard gaining 195k (despite gaining t40 countdown spins) and moving up a spot to #33 as Hunter Hayes and Chase Bryant passed. I’m not seeing any likely passers here other than Blake’s debut (though Jake Owens’s excellent new single will close), so look for GMG to finish the week at #34.

    At Aircheck/Mediabase, GMG had an OK week gaining 115 points and holding at #39. Her main countdown spin bump will show up in next week’s chart because it was on Sunday. Justin Moore has repassed since Sunday (he started the week 90 points behind), and may stay ahead since this is the release week for the Big Machine Tribute To Motley Crue album. Jana Kramer’s Love closed to 168 points behind by outgaining GMG by 226 points, so she could pass this week. Blake Shelton will debut ahead. GMG can absorb all 3 passes and still hold onto its t40 spot thanks to recurrents. Look for GMG to finish the week anywhere between #38 and #40, most likely #39 or #40.

    Idol related ads: There’s a full page Billboard Country Update ad by Big Machine advertising the Motley Crue tribute album that mentions Cassadee’s involvement.

    Recommended reading: Billboard Country Update leads with an article about an ASCAP P.R.O.mote The Vote showcase that featured performances in front of 150-200 industry members who might then be voting in the 2nd round that decides CMA nominations. The article talks about how this is a cheaper and less schmoozy way for acts to try to get votes, and then goes into a discussion of how CMA campaigns work. It’s an interesting read: the CMA protects its list of voting members from solicitors, so

    They must contract with HiFi Fusion, and they’re limited to three email blasts and one physical mailer during the three rounds of voting. The organization also controls the times an email can be sent and the number

    of total emails that go out on a given day. The CMA has also added an official disclaimer in the email blasts to clearly differentiate approved messages from what CMA CEO Sarah Trahern calls “rogue emails.”

    HiFi Fusion’s president is Todd Cassetty, Scotty’s former manager (yes, the one with whom he faced off in court). He comments:

    Open rates for the email blasts run from 25 percent to more than 50 percent, says HiFi Fusion president Todd Cassetty, whose firm has handled the CMA campaigns for 11 years. That percentage is “considerably larger” than rates for typical email campaigns, he says, and it varies depending on the message readers see in their inbox.“That range of open rates is contingent on creativity,” Cassetty says. “If people are creative in their subject lines, people tend to open them more often.”

    That’s why CMA voters got some blasts with interesting subject lines, like claiming they had a parking ticket, that Tom Brady was traded to the Titans, and so on, but the messages were really ads for Tyler Farr and Brantley Gilbert, respectively. The article also includes pricing for the blasts:

    Each blast carries a $1,000 price tag to deliver, plus whatever creative fees are involved in designing the piece. Physical mailers can run $30,000-$40,000 apiece, according to [Fusion Music CEO/Managing Partner Daniel] Miller, and some campaigns have easily exceeded $50,000.

    I have it from a pretty good source that back when she was trying to win country awards, Taylor Swift’s team would easily spend a million dollars on her award campaigns, and Blake Shelton’s the only guy who stood up to compete with that in recent years.

    Country Aircheck leads with a story on how a Garth Brooks concert rollout can look for each city he announces. There’s also a page 4 story on how WSM-FM, one of the stations relaunched as a Nash Icons format station last week, sounded. Here’s a recap from Lon Helton:

    The Nashville affiliate is playing 13 Currents, 36 Recurrents

    and 102 Gold titles. As one might expect, the majority of the currents are from the top of the charts; nine are from the top 15. There are some interesting exceptions, however. Big & Rich’s “Look At You” at No. 23 is the lowest charted song being played while Lee Ann Womack’s “The Way I’m Livin’” is new and not yet charted. These two outliers may well fit into the philosophy outlined in the original Nash Icon press release which stated the intention to play new music by icons, regardless of whether or not the song was getting mainstream Country radio airplay. It’s also a bit surprising to see bro country tunes and artists intertwined among the format’s iconic acts. Bro-leaning hits by Florida Georgia Line, Luke Bryan, Blake Shelton and others are sprinkled through the two days of music.

    He concludes by saying:

    . One of the challenges in mixing country music’s eras has always been one of matching “sounds.” Whether it be a matter of evolv-ing and advancing production techniques or the change from analog to digital recording, the sonics of various eras just don’t match. Any way you cut it, there are just some tough segues. Overall, the format sounds good to a longtime country fan. It will be interesting to see if Nash Icon can bring back Country listeners who might have become a bit disenfranchised with Country radio over the last few years, or if it will merely shave the upper demos from a market’s existing Country stations, further compressing the shares and niching a niche.

  • ptebwwong

    Usually around 4-6 PM ET. I usually post it here once it updates.

  • ptebwwong

    CHART DATE: 08/18/2014
    LAST UPDATE: 08/19/2014 13:15:45
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label sales index % change
    1 1 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY HOLLYWOOD 94,994 -8% SOUNDTRACK
    2 2 NOW 51 NOW 56,485 -40% VARIOUS ARTISTS
    6 3 FROZEN WALT DISNEY 46,104 +43% SOUNDTRACK
    — 4 GASLIGHT ANTHEM ISLAND 32,600 — GET HURT
    — 5 TROYE SIVAN CAPITOL 28,599 — TRXYE – EP
    5 6 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER CAPITOL 27,910 -22% 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER
    8 7 SAM SMITH CAPITOL 25,525 -4% IN THE LONELY HOUR
    3 8 GODSMACK REPUBLIC 21,869 -61% 1000HP
    13 9 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE 19,150 +21% CRASH MY PARTY
    11 10 ED SHEERAN ATLANTIC 18,815 +1% X
    14 19 KIDZ BOP KIDS RAZOR & TIE 13,039 -18% KIDZ BOP 26
    16 23 MIRANDA LAMBERT RCA NASHVILLE 11,801 -17% PLATINUM
    15 25 NOW 50 NOW 11,146 -25% VARIOUS ARTIST
    — 30 CALEB JOHNSON 19/INTERSCOPE 10,315 —
    TESTIFY
    — 40 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 7,016 — BASED ON A TRUE STORY
    41 42 PHARRELL WILLIAMS COLUMBIA 6,712 +16% G I R L
    32 45 NOW COUNTRY 7 NOW 6,056 -16% VARIOUS ARTISTS

  • mmb
  • ptebwwong

    Already posted on the thread. Thanks.

  • girlygirl

    HDD Final chart is in. Kris is not in the Top 50 (so less than 5547)

    — 30 CALEB JOHNSON 19/INTERSCOPE 10,315 —

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

  • Karen C

    My fingers are crossed too. If a single is released that far ahead of the album I’m hopeful a plan is in place. We should hear very soon….. I mean in the near future ;)

  • Karen C

    It might very well be that he has some kind of distribution deal because he just signed a new management deal and they are associated with Live Nation. He has said that’s what he was looking for so maybe he got it.

  • Incipit

    Very True, standtotheright – it was a complete digression – I ought not to have answered it. – I could edit my replies out – but the original hypothetical would remain. MJ can*poof* them all, if she wants to.

  • disqus_1wjaGXHz07

    Caleb is at No. 30 with 10,315. Kris didn’t make the top 50. So he sold below 5,547 (Magic who is No 50). It wasn’t that close after all. So whoever had projected that Caleb was going to take a bigger lead, was right.

  • Karen C

    Kris released independantly on his own label. I am not sure if he has a distribution deal.

  • tweenat

    Kris’s sales look pretty dismal despite releasing independently.

  • girlygirl

    Huh? Independent releases in general don’t sell much. Not sure what you mean by “despite”

  • Amy Beth

    I wonder when was the last time the #1 and 2 albums retained their places?

  • girlygirl

    wasn’t HDD predicting close to 50K for Troye Sivan late last week?

  • Corrine43180

    Yeah, when people were wondering if Kris might sell more than Caleb, I didn’t think it was at all possible. So Caleb is selling about 8k less than Candice did almost a year after idol

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “30 CALEB JOHNSON 19/INTERSCOPE 10,315″

    If that number holds, then at least Caleb sold in the double digit thousands. Still pretty sad for the winner of Idol.

  • Amy Beth

    Austin Mahone syndrome strikes again!

  • girlygirl

    Well, they were pretty close on iTunes and on the Amazon and Wal-Mart charts for awhile. But then we learned that Kris’ cd wasn’t getting distributed to all the stores, which kind of put the kibosh on this idea :)

  • Genna Baker

    In reality, why would anyone expect their numbers to be close? One is the reigning new American Idol, only 3 mos out, fresh off Idol Tour, major label record release. The other is 5 yrs out from the show, indie release. Their circumstances are completely different. The former had a much greater sales advantage, with warranted much higher expectations than the latter.

  • H.A.

    The predictions was Kris would outsell Caleb because Kris had a bigger fanbase. Maybe people thought Kris would hold on to more of his hardcore fanbase?

  • girlygirl

    I always wonder what outlets report late. Because his numbers didn’t move much from the partial (48.1% reporting) chart, which had him at 9100 or so. Another example of why we can’t estimate the final #s from the partial reports

  • mmb

    Neither will be jumping up and down, but I doubt either will be at all surprised and their numbers are likely completely in line with their teams expectations given their respective circumstances and prior sales history…

  • elliegrll

    As I recall, people had differing opinions on this, but majority opinion was that Caleb would sell more.

  • elliegrll

    Ignoring the fact that we don’t know how much Kris sold, I don’t see how anyone could be surprised that he will probably be outside of the top 50 when the numbers are released tomorrow. Kris hasn’t done a lot to remain spotlight, attract new fans, or hold on to the fans who were still around for the second album. Idol alum history has shown the extreme effects of idol fan erosion, so it is imperative that alums find a way to attract people to their music, and not just speak to those who became fans because of American Idol.

  • PAwoma

    I hate to say it, but most of my friends that watch AI if asked today would say Kris who? Of course they won’t have purchased his first CD either so they are not lost numbers. Most still follow both Adam and Allison from that season.

  • Karen C

    The possibility of a distribution deal has been something that David has discussed in interviews and in fan M&G. He has said he was looking for a distribution deal, that he was going to produce the album himself, and then look for a distribution deal, maybe from a label, because of the costs to get a single on the radio. Being that he now has a timeline of the release, it is likely whatever deal he has is in place. There has been no official announcement yet, though. So it isn’t known for sure if there is a deal or radio push, but I think we should find out in the near future if the September release date is true.

  • elliegrll

    I hate to say it, but most of my friends that watch AI if asked today would say Kris who?

    Despite many of us being overly involved and aware of what’s going on with the alums, that is not the norm. Most people don’t participate in message boards, fan groups, or follow those who aren’t releasing the type of music that they want to listen to. I said this in reference to another discussion in this thread, but AI popularity doesn’t mean jack once a contestant’s season is over. Kris’ success is not dependent on AI fans knowing who he is.

    AI averaged over 20 million viewers during season 8, but Adam and Allison didn’t sell that many albums.

  • H.A.

    Adam sold more albums than the Allison, Kris and Danny combined. Over 2 million WW.

  • babyspock

    There was another article from billboard from a few days ago that had the prediction at around 40,000. The HDD prediction was mostly based on pre-orders. Without a song on radio I’m guessing most of his fans are not music fans but fans of his youtubes and his acting roles which screw the normal pre-orders/sales ratio. .

  • elliegrll

    Speculating based on those charts was always a bad idea. The Walmart is based on people who are buying off of the website, and most people don’t buy albums in that manner. People still don’t buy a lot of albums from Itunes, and you really can’t do a lot of speculation about the Itunes chart.

  • Q3

    Caleb’s sales are amazingly low for someone who won Idol 3 months ago and who released their album in the midst of the Idol Tour. And a debut at #30! I did not expect him to do well but I did not think it would be this low.

  • PAwoma

    I wasn’t trying to imply that Adam or Allison had high sales numbers. Just that viewers soon forget contestants they are not interested in. Very few idols have actually increased their fan base after the show. I can only think of 3 possibilities and Kris isn’t one of them.

  • Q3

    Ha ha! That is putting the best light on a bad number. :)

    I do not think I ever imagined a day when someone could win Idol and sell only 10K and not have a hit single.

  • Q3

    I cannot believe that Interscope released an album from an Idol winner and expected it to sell only 10K. I am sure they had low expectations and kept the budget low. But forecasting 10K? No, I doubt it.

    And I also do not believe that Caleb knew he would only sell 10K until last week. It is a horrible number.

    **

    Kris put out an independent album, we do not know how many units it sold but he will do concerts, perform the music, continue to sell it, and he will probably make money. He is an indie artist totally different ballgame.

  • mmb

    Caleb’s single sales during the season and the sales of his coronation single were abysmal…if Interscope and Caleb thought that more people would spend 8/9 dollars on a full album than would spend a $1.29 on a single then they are both nuts. His coronation single only sold about 10K units. There was no indication that his album was going to sell any better. Interscope might not have expected such low numbers a few months ago, but the coronation single sales certainly should have prepped them for it

  • ptebwwong

    Monitored Adds:

    Rhythmic
    Fifth Harmony (Bo$$) – 4
    Top 40
    Fifth Harmony (Bo$$) – 1
    Urban
    Jennifer Hudson f. R. Kelly (It’s Your World) – 1
    Urban AC
    Jennifer Hudson f. R. Kelly (It’s Your World) – 3
    Canada Country
    David Nail (Kiss You Tonight) – 1
    Canada HAC
    Demi Lovato f. Cher Lloyd (Really Don’t Care) – 2

  • Corrine43180

    Wasnt James on Windup?? I know it’s a small label, but they did a good promoting him. jHe also got some tv spots if I remember correctly. I wonder if Caleb will get any?

  • elliegrll

    They aren’t low for someone who has zero support from his label and management, no presence outside of the idol bubble, or who is coming off an AI season that cemented the fact that the show is no longer relevant.

  • jdanton2

    Fifth Harmony had 21 adds at Urban.

  • Corrine43180

    Has any alum sold the number of albums as there were viewers during their season?? I don’t get that last sentence.

  • ptebwwong

    Thanks. Added it.

  • elliegrll

    That’s great, but it still shows that viewers does not equal consumers. 2 million albums is a far cry from 20 million viewers. Most people don’t care what happens once the show is over, and will not follow an alum or buy their music.

  • elliegrll

    They haven’t that’s my point. Who cares if AI viewers know who Kris is or care what he’s doing? It makes no sense to put the focus on how long it’s been since someone was on the show, because at this point it doesn’t matter. Most AI viewers aren’t going to keep up with the alums once that contestant’s season is over.

  • ptebwwong

    TAYLOR SWIFT: MAKING HISTORY

    Her New Single Knocks Down Top 40 Panel in Less Than 24 Hours;

    Why Hasn’t Country Jumped In?

    August 19, 2014

    Big Machine and Republic Records have pulled off an unprecedented feat, as Taylor Swift’s “Shake It Off” has closed the entire Top 40 panel in less than 24 hours–a first in Pop radio history. Charlie Walk, Gary Spangler and team, having knocked down Pop in record time, are already preparing a repeat performance at Hot AC next week.

    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news10021m01

  • girlygirl

    lol, why hasn’t country jumped in? Because it’s a pure pop song and she has made it clear that she wants to be a pop artist

  • Bunny391848

    Swift’s with Republic? I thought she was just with Big Machine….

  • ptebwwong

    Yes, she has made that clear. However, it hasn’t stopped a few country stations from playing it. One of those stations are one biggest stations in the country (NY) & a Nashville station is also playing it. Both of them have played it more than once today.

  • girlygirl

    well that’s their right, of course, but country radio has already faced a backlash from listeners who think they are getting too far away from country music with all the country/rap, country/hip-hop stuff as it is. And at least those songs have something that could make them country, whether it’s vocally or instrumentally. Can’t say that about this song, haha

  • girlygirl

    Yeah, I was going to say that James technically is not an indie artist :)

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Wind-Up did quite a lot to promote Durbin. (I mostly remember criticism of his appearances, as he was pretty raw back then, but that means he had enough to discuss.)

    Wind-Up also promoted actual singles. There are excellent reasons for fans to dispute the wisdom of Wind-Up’s exact strategy, but there was radio support that led to actual chart positions. (He also got heat over “bringing metal back” when his official single was very HAC.)

  • ptebwwong

    It’s very few stations. The article states 10 country stations have played it today. I don’t think she will get a hit or much airplay on country radio anymore. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is at least 1 nomination when the CMA’s are announced in Sep. I think the CMA’s will stop nominating her soon (probably next year) just not this year.

  • justmefornow

    The only TV spots he had era #1 was Conan in Jan 2012, a VH1 Morning Buzz around then too and an Idol appearance in April 2012.
    But he did go on a 2 month acoustic radio promo tour that winter and a full band tour Spring/Summer 2012.

  • girlygirl

    I think you and your friends would be in the minority on this. In general, Idol winners are going to be better remembered than the non-winners. Now if a non-winner has a high public profile through having had big album sales or winning an Oscar, etc, maybe that wouldn’t hold up. But that wouldn’t be the case with Kris & Allison (Adam, yes, Allison, no).

    Not that has anything to do with Kris’ sales, really :)

  • justmefornow

    I always laugh because they made him do the HAC radio tour to promote LMB, and just threw Stand-up to Active Rock, because it was on that NFL EP, with essentially no other push.
    Ironically Stand-up ended up actually charting than the HAC single, lol.

  • elliegrll

    I think that people can increase their fanbase, but I’ll admit that few of the idol alums will be able to land a major label contract, or reach the top of their genre.

    In the end, we are saying the same thing in regards to viewers keeping up with an alum.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    The only two certain cases of increasing raw fanbase numbers after the show are Kelly Clarkson (blockbuster second album based on major hit songs) and Mandisa (her sales have increased over time, in her niche).

    There are others who have run good strategies, but we’ve yet to see how well they work. (Yes, OF COURSE, I’d like to see intelligent strategies work! It pisses me off when they don’t, and that’s happened, too.) Idol debut numbers used to be incredibly inflated in relation to the number of people who really followed the artist actively, so it’s possible to have great sales (like Carrie Underwood or Fantasia) and still be at a lower level than the debut.

  • Listening

    I agree with it being pop. I was just telling my sis that Taylor isn’t even trying to pretend anymore.LOL I said country will still claim her though so they can say we have a superstar but you know behind closed doors they’re like she/that aint Country at all.

  • Listening

    Umm is it just me, I didn’t like it. I actually think it’s one of her worst songs it feels like she was trying to hard for me. Total honesty here I didn’t even finish listening to the song b/c I thought it was so dumb. I made it halfway through before I was like ummm no I don’t want to even bother and quit. Does this song have like a killer second half because otherwise I can’t figure out how this song got to number 1 on itunes.

    Oh and just for the record not a Taylor Swift hater loved like every one of her singles from her album Red

  • girlygirl

    She is. Big Machine has a deal with Republic

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Caleb’s sales are so pathetic that I almost feel sorry for him … but not really. lol

  • Bunny391848

    oh..Wonder why her and Danielle Bradbery are not on Republic’s site while Cassadee Pope is….

  • stef

    No idea what it means in raw numbers, but Danny’s album has been consistently in the top 10-20 range on iTunes Christian albums since it came out. Single in the top 5-10 for the most part.

  • stef

    This is another article talking to the BMG Artist Services model which is what Danny is using, as a route different from BMG’s publishing services. And Danny even makes a guest appearance in the press release lol.

    http://www.bmg.com/category/news/?n=us-grammy-winning-rb-artist-faith-evans-chooses-bmg-for-publishing-and-artist-services-deal

    The BMG Artist model also made Business Week apparently last December, interesting reading. They refer to it as “label services.”

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-19/music-artists-sign-label-services-deals-seeking-more-control-profit

  • stef

    This doesn’t in any way strike me as country, and it’s not something I’d ever buy. But Taylor in a tutu cracks me up, which is always appreciated ;)

    Whether this is her permanent & exclusive musical direction from here on, idk. I could possibly see her crossing back and forth as it pleases her.

  • windmills

    It’s such a bizarrely clueless article. “Shake It Off” wasn’t serviced to country radio, all of Taylor’s advance promotion has been with pop radio stations, and Scott Borchetta told Rolling Stone a few months ago:

    Will country stations play a a complete pop song just because it’s her? No. But when she comes to town, her friends at country radio will come and see her.

    Taylor made her musical break with country a couple years ago, and the Red album was a transition out of country radio to pop radio. Her “officially documented” move to pop is just a rebranding move to match the musical move she’d already made. It’s not that country radio won’t play pop music (hi Sam Hunt), it’s that Taylor wants to be seen as a global pop megastar.

  • Incipit

    Very strange, and I see it has no visible by-line. No one gets to take personal credit for being ‘that’ dense.

    Retweeted by Nick Gibson
    NotKennyRogers @NotKennyRogers · 19h
    Taylor Swift: “I’m dumping country music for pop.”

    Country Music: “I honestly had no idea we were ever even going out.”

  • PAwoma

    I said three because I assumed Jenifer Hudson did, and possibly Daughtry. Just looking at overall popularity. Guess I was wrong. To be honest l look at numbers all day at work. I have no desire to do that in my free time…I don’t consider it a pleasure.

  • PAwoma

    However, 2 million sales is 10 percent of the views. Caleb got about one percent (10 million viewers, sale of 10,000). that’s pretty poor.

  • Eilonwy_has_an_emu

    Daughtry probably did gain fans during his debut era, due to extensive touring and major radio hits, so I’ll give ya that one. He just didn’t retain them once he wasn’t all over the radio.

    JHud is so hard to measure. Her second post-Idol album sold a lot less than her first, but she’s diversified.

    One of the things with the reality world is that a lot of the memes don’t match the numbers, which is why I crunch numbers all day at work and then crunch more in my spare time. MOAR NUMBERS! (Actually, my kitchen counter suggests craft projects have taken over, but evs.)

  • PAwoma

    Jennifer has been successful on broadway and in film also. I have some friends that only measure success by CD sales, I’ve pointed out to them the AI alum that ended up on broadway, and they feel that doesn’t count. In other words, I agree with you JHud is hard to measure. In my mind, if you can live comfortably on your music carrer alone, I’d consider it a success. It’s a difficult industry.