HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Dec 31-Jan 6

Usually, the first chart of January is like a splash of cold water…cold water from a glacier fed lake that has been super-cooled with liquid CO2. We go from the exciting weeks of stocking stuffer sales – the two biggest sales week of the year for albums are those prior to Christmas – on a nerve jangling plummet into depressing sales. It’s not uncommon to see the top selling album of the week in January selling in the 60K range.

But this year is different. While last year had the amazing Adele to boost the sales of the number one album, the rest of the chart remained glum. This year, a combination of a successful movie musical and strategic iTunes album sales have combined for a week of sales that isn’t too bad. Our January is a little brighter this year.

With 68.46% of reports in, it’s clear that there is a market for actors pretending to be singers. The “Les Miz” movie soundtrack has been relentlessly climbing up the chart since its release and is now ready to ascend to the top of the chart. Mumford and Sons appear to be challenging from second place, but the prognosticators predict that “Les Miz” will beat les garçons.

The rest of the top 10 is taken up by female artists and reality show contestants. Alicia Keys is 4th, P!NK is 5th, Taylor Swift 6th and Ke$ha is 10th.

Representing shows we follow here at MJs in the top 10 are XF UK contestants and American Idol winners. One Direction (3rd on the 7th Season of XF UK) are third again with “Take Me Home” (tweens are clearly taking the title literally) while their original album “Up All Night” is up in 9th. Season 4 Idol winner Carrie Underwood’s “Blown Away” is currently 7th and right behind her is our most recent winner, Phil Phillips.

Outside of the top 10 are Kelly Clarkson with her greatest hits album at 21st. Carly Rae Jepsen from Canadian Idol arrives back in the top 50 with “Kiss” at 43.

And, representing the Voice are, you guessed it, the judges. Adam Levine’s Maroon 5’s “Overexposed” is right behind Kelly at 22nd and Blake Shelton’s “Red River Blue” is hanging in there at 49th.

Now 44, featuring a bunch of contestants and judges is at 16.

CHART DATE: 01/07/2013
LAST UPDATE: 01/07/2013 14:57:11
NOW IN: 68.46%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 LES MISERABLES SOUNDTRACK 76,007
— 2 MUMFORD & SONS BABEL 75,352
— 3 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 69,212
— 4 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 41,091
— 5 P!NK TRUTH ABOUT LOVE 40,951
— 6 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 29,700
— 7 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 23,294
— 8 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 22,428
— 9 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT20,176
— 10 KE$HA WARRIOR 19,732

— 16 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 15,474

— 21 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 12,762
— 22 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 12,539

— 43 CARLY RAE JEPSEN KISS 4,249

— 49 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 2,469
— 50 THE WEEKND TRILOGY 2,431

Hits Daily Double

  • jpfan2

    First radio add for GGG has shown up:  Triple A radio station in Detroit. It’s a start.

  • windmills

    Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There were a ton of recurrents from Billboard: Eric Church’s Creepin and Greg Bates’s Did It For The Girl went recurrent out of the t20, Darius Rucker’s True Believers, Blake/Miranda’s Jingle Bell Rock and  Lady A’s Holly Jolly Christmas went recurrent out of the t40, and Blake/Kelly’s There’s A New Kid In Town (Christmas song), Blake/Michael Buble’s Christmas version of Home, Blake’s Christmas Song, Scotty’s Jingle Bells, Blake & Trypha-Phunk’s The Very Best Time Of Year, Scotty’s Let It Snow, and Hunter Hayes’s Go Tell It On The Mountain all went recurrent below the t40. At Mediabase there were 3 recurrents: Florida-Georgia Line’s Cruise, and Greg and Eric. This coming week, Justin Moore, Kip Moore (not related), Florida-Georgia Line, and Kenny Chesney are all eligible to go recurrent. But, everybody’s bulleted this week because of airplay recovery. I’d guess Kenny will go recurrent but, I don’t know about anybody else. At Mediabase I’m as clueless what they’ll do. I think they’ll pull Kenny but, I’m not sure about either Moore guy. 

    This week I’m not going to talk about the size of bullets because it’d be a reflection of recovering holiday play. I’ll restart that part of the report next week.

    Carrie’s Two Black Cadillacs moved up 2 spots at Billboard to #16 because of 2 recurrents. 2BC trails Kenny Chesney’s single (which has peaked) by 133k and will pass this week. 2BC trails Hunter Hayes’s Somebody’s Heartbreak by 1.563 million AIs. It’s not impossible for 2BC to pass this week but, I’m going to guess it doesn’t happen and 2BC moves up a spot to #15. At MB/Aircheck 2BC is up to #14 with 10809 points. 2BC trails Hunter’s song at #13 by 633 points, so passing by the end of the week is more likely here than at Billboard. 

    CaseyJ’s Crying On A Suitcase hit a new peak of #18 Billboard thanks to 2 recurrents (Kacey Musgraves repassed). COAS trails Kacey’s Merry Go Round by 808k and is unlikely to repass this week. But COAS will move up a spot by passing Kenny’s El Cerrito Place (or ECP will go recurrent). COAS has a cushion for a couple weeks and there will be 3 recurrents out of the t10 in the next few weeks. The nearest threats to pass are Lee Brice’s I Drive Your Truck (which is a way better song than its title implies) which will probably pass in a couple weeks and Blake Shelton’s new single (which will probably pass in 3 or 4 weeks). That’s still a net gain of position when you think about recurrents, and COAS has a pretty good chance of going t15 Billboard in that time. 

    At MB/Aircheck COAS is up to a new peak of #17 with 9151 points. It trails Kacey’s song by 372 points and could repass this week (this morning Kacey posted a stronger spin gain though she took a slight AI hit). COAS will move up with Kenny Chesney’s single on the way out, so it should end the week at #16. With a 2946 point advantage on Lee Brice’s song, COAS has a good-sized cushion to make t15 within the next few weeks. With the full page Aircheck ad urging stations to “convert” now, it’s pretty clear Columbia Nashville’s going for t15 with COAS. Not sure if it can/will get much higher than that but, let’s make t15 1st. 

    Kelly’s Don’t Rush moved up 5 spots to #35 (new peak) because of 5 recurrents and at least temporarily repassing Florida-Georgia Line’s Get Your Shine On. Blake’s new single debuted ahead of Don’t Rush. Kelly trails Jana Kramer by 214k, leads Jerrod Niemann by 233k. Those positions could switch around depending on how this week goes. You also have Florida-Georgia Line and The Henningsen’s American Beautiful coming up pretty fast, both less than 500k behind DR. Miranda’s Mama’s Broken Heart will also probably pass in the next 2 weeks. That’ll be offset by recurrents. I’m not expecting a huge amount of movement from DR right now because there are a few high profile singles that will get to t30 rotation before it does. I expect it to ride out that storm and then eventually take advantage of an opportunity to move up into the t30. 

    At Aircheck/MB, DR moved up to #33 (new peak) as of last Sunday. It’s really tight in that part of the chart though, and sure enough, Blake Shelton, Jana Kramer, and The Hennningsens have passed since Sunday. I don’t expect DR to repass Blake or The Henningsens but, repassing Jana is a possibility. I don’t anticipate anybody else passing this week so, DR will likely end the week at #34 or #35. 

    Recommended reading: Billboard Country Update has year end sales data that supplements Nielsen/Billboard’s 2012 Music Industry Report.

    Carrie has the #2 selling country album of 2012 with Blown Away (1.203 million sold), the #1 selling country album if you are like me and don’t consider Taylor’s Red album to be a country album. Carrie is the only artist with 2 of the year’s t10 selling digital songs (BA #6 with 1.636 million sold and GG #7 with 1.527 million sold) but that’s with Never Ever Like Whatever on the chart. Carrie had the #6 selling album of the 4th quarter 2012 with 380k sold and Scotty was #7 with his Christmas album (357k sold during Q4), with the same Swift disclaimer that would move them both up a spot. Carrie’s Blown Away single is Q4’s #5 selling single (693k sold), but moves up a spot if you exclude Never Ever Like Whatever.

    In the Nielsen/Billboard PR you can also see Carrie is #9 on the 2012’s list of top-selling album acts with 1.497 million albums sold. BA the album is #6 on the list of t10 selling physical albums (880k, which means 323k were sold digitally). Scotty had 2012’s #5 best selling seasonal album as we already knew (348k sold). 

    I’m just going to point a few things out before mentioning some other Idols in the Nielsen/Billboard PR. There’s been some press about how country was 1 of only 2 genres (the other being rock, which appears to include pop) to see an increase in sales in 2012. This is deceiving. For one thing, if you take Taylor’s pop album out of the country category, the 4.2% increase in 2012 becomes a 3.0% decrease for country (and a 5.1% increase for rock instead of a 2.0% increase). For another, 2012 should have been a better year for country compared to 2011, seeing as 2011 lacked a country superstar Q4 release (with Carrie taking some extra time off). 2012 had Carrie’s album out 7 months and Jason Aldean’s album out for Q4, plus 3 high profile country Christmas albums that added a little over 1.2 million to sales (which you can’t expect every year). 

    A deep dive into the numbers shows it actually wasn’t that great a year for country album sales, and that’s without considering the point Music Row’s David Ross made about how discounting may have affected the labels’ bottom lines. I think that’s why we didn’t see significant discounting on BA (like pricing under $10) until it had already been out 4 months – to keep the label’s profit margin on the album higher on an album where they figured would sell anyway. Arista Nashville did use discounting on Black Friday (to $6.99 and $7.99 in a couple stores) and is using a $7.99 Itunes discount now so it’s using the discounting strategically. There still haven’t been any $5 or less type deals on BA yet though I know there have been several on other Sony Nashville titles (not to mention other country titles, most notably Lionel Richie’s Tuskegee). For 2013 not to be a big down year, country is going to need strong performances by the likes of Lady A and Luke Bryan but it’s also going to need some of 2012’s releases to hold up steady. 

    Other Idols mentioned on Nielsen/Billboard’s 2012 Year End PR:

    Kelly’s What Doesn’t Kill You (Stronger) is the year’s #8 top selling digital song as we already knew. 
    P2’s Home was the #8 top selling song of the 2012 holiday season (1.039 million sold).
    Kelly’s WDKY (Stronger) was 2012’s #3 most played song based on Nielsen/BDS detections with 506k spins, and Kelly was 2012’s #3 most played act with 1,064,000 spins. 

  • fuzzywuzzy

    HDD’s sales predictions:

    YOUR TOP 15: We dreamed a dream that Republic’s Les Misérablessoundtrack would occupy the top of the chart barricade, and woke up and found it was true: The box-office phenom’s OST will claim the #1 spot in its third week of release. Here’s what we hope is a somewhat accurate look at the first chart of 2013. 

    Les Misérables (Republic) 120-130k
    One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 95-105k
    Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 85-95k
    Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 85-95k
    Phillip Phillips (19/Interscope) 60-70k
    Pitch Perfect (UMe) 55-60k
    Lumineers (Dualtone) 50-55k
    Bruno Mars (Atlantic) 50-55k
    P!nk (RCA) 50-55k
    Alicia Keys (RCA) 45-50k
    Now 44 (Capitol) 35-40k
    Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone) 35-40k
    Justin Bieber (Island/Def Jam) 35-40k
    Imagine Dragons (Interscope) 35-40k
    Kendrick Lamar (Aftermath/Interscope) 30-35k
    T.I. (Grand Hustle/Atlantic) 30-35k

    None of the other dreams we’ve had lately have manifested as chart developments, but since they mostly involve us suddenly being naked in Spanish class, that’s probably a good thing. (1/3p)

  • springboard2

    Mediabase:

    AAA:
    2  2  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  578  546  32  2.042
    -5  Spins
    -12  Bullet
    -0.014  AI
    Country:
    17  14  CARRIE UNDERWOOD   Two Black Cadillacs  3640  2871  769  28.783
    +109  Spins
    -102  Bullet
    +0.731  AI
    20  17  CASEY JAMES   Crying On A Suitcase  2923  2405  518  23.486
    +39  Spins
    -142  Bullet
    +0.246  AI
    38  36  KELLY CLARKSON   Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill  854  618  236  4.636
    0  Spins
    -54  Bullet
    +0.072  AI
    HAC:
    2  3  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  4628  4320  308  32.047
    -19  Spins
    -71  Bullet
    -0.261  AI
    13  11  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  2750  2436  314  19.774
    +27  Spins
    -1  Bullet
    +0.121  AI
    36  34  CARRIE UNDERWOOD   Blown Away  395  380  15  1.605
    +4  Spins
    +10  Bullet
    -0.065  AI
    53  45  ONE DIRECTION   Little Things  138  112  26  0.459
    +6  Spins
    +7  Bullet
    +0.029  AI
    POP:
    10  8  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  8432  8640  -208  56.098
    +86  Spins
    +191  Bullet
    +1.117  AI
    19  18  ONE DIRECTION   Little Things  5006  4452  554  28.715
    +266  Spins
    +342  Bullet
    +1.174  AI
    21  20  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  4352  3947  405  27.841
    +125  Spins
    +124  Bullet
    +0.893  AI
    38  32  OLLY MURS   Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  1048  886  162  7.297
    +39  Spins
    +25  Bullet
    +0.292  AI

     

  • springboard2

    Mediabase:

    AAA:
    2  2  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  578  546  32  2.042
    -5  Spins
    -12  Bullet
    -0.014  AI
    Country:
    17  14  CARRIE UNDERWOOD   Two Black Cadillacs  3640  2871  769  28.783
    +109  Spins
    -102  Bullet
    +0.731  AI
    20  17  CASEY JAMES   Crying On A Suitcase  2923  2405  518  23.486
    +39  Spins
    -142  Bullet
    +0.246  AI
    38  36  KELLY CLARKSON   Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill  854  618  236  4.636
    0  Spins
    -54  Bullet
    +0.072  AI
    HAC:
    2  3  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  4628  4320  308  32.047
    -19  Spins
    -71  Bullet
    -0.261  AI
    13  11  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  2750  2436  314  19.774
    +27  Spins
    -1  Bullet
    +0.121  AI
    36  34  CARRIE UNDERWOOD   Blown Away  395  380  15  1.605
    +4  Spins
    +10  Bullet
    -0.065  AI
    53  45  ONE DIRECTION   Little Things  138  112  26  0.459
    +6  Spins
    +7  Bullet
    +0.029  AI
    POP:
    10  8  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  8432  8640  -208  56.098
    +86  Spins
    +191  Bullet
    +1.117  AI
    19  18  ONE DIRECTION   Little Things  5006  4452  554  28.715
    +266  Spins
    +342  Bullet
    +1.174  AI
    21  20  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  4352  3947  405  27.841
    +125  Spins
    +124  Bullet
    +0.893  AI
    38  32  OLLY MURS   Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  1048  886  162  7.297
    +39  Spins
    +25  Bullet
    +0.292  AI

     

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Wui-Zhuan-Lim/777616348 Wui Zhuan Lim

    Well said…Taylor’s NEVER EVER WHATEVER…NO COUNTRY!

  • springboard2

    ITunes:

    1/8/2013 – Top 1500 Singles (from LivePopBars)
    8. Phillip Phillips – Home
    23. Kelly Clarkson – Catch My Breath
    36. One Direction – Little Things
    42. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    45. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    67. Carrie Underwood – Two Black Cadillacs
    70. One Direction – Kiss You
    79. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    80. Phillip Phillips – Home
    87. Cher Lloyd – Want U Back
    88. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen – Good Time
    98. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    115. Cher Lloyd – Oath (feat. Becky G)
    123. One Direction – Kiss You
    125. One Direction – Little Things
    130. Carrie Underwood – Good Girl
    136. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    139. Olly Murs – Troublemaker (feat. Flo Rida)
    140. Casey James – Crying On a Suitcase
    173. One Direction – One Thing
    193. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    222. Carly Rae Jepsen – This Kiss
    224. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    266. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    267. One Direction – Rock Me
    268. Fantasia – Lose To Win
    301. Kelly Clarkson – Dark Side
    323. One Direction – She’s Not Afraid
    347. One Direction – Nobody Compares
    403. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    464. One Direction – Still the One
    472. One Direction – Heart Attack
    478. One Direction – Rock Me
    517. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    557. Leona Lewis – Bleeding Love
    602. One Direction – Loved You First
    603. Kelly Clarkson – Since U Been Gone
    605. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    622. Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown – No Air
    630. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    642. One Direction – They Don’t Know About Us
    644. One Direction – Heart Attack
    663. Kelly Clarkson – Don’t Rush (feat. Vince Gill)
    685. One Direction – They Don’t Know About Us
    700. Cassadee Pope – Over You (The Voice Performance)
    710. Kelly Clarkson – Because of You
    728. One Direction – Up All Night
    750. One Direction – Moments
    771. Cher Lloyd – Swagger Jagger
    800. Carrie Underwood – Cowboy Casanova
    833. Kelly Clarkson – Mr. Know It All
    897. Carrie Underwood – Jesus, Take the Wheel
    939. Mandisa & tobyMac – Good Morning (feat. TobyMac)
    970. One Direction – I Would
    975. Colton Dixon – You Are
    981. One Direction – Gotta Be You (2012 US Version)
    1025. One Direction – I Would
    1035. Carly Rae Jepsen & Owl City – Good Time
    1040. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    1064. Cher Lloyd – With Ur Love
    1070. One Direction – One Thing
    1142. One Direction – More Than This
    1148. Carly Rae Jepsen – This Kiss
    1224. Carrie Underwood – Undo It
    1233. One Direction – Last First Kiss
    1280. One Direction – C’mon, C’mon
    1294. One Direction – Stand Up
    1309. One Direction – Last First Kiss
    1319. One Direction – C’mon, C’mon
    1363. Jennifer Hudson & Ne-Yo – Think Like a Man (feat. Rick Ross)
    1410. Olly Murs – Heart Skips a Beat (feat. Chiddy Bang)
    1461. One Direction – I Want
    1474. Carrie Underwood – All-American Girl

    1/8/2013 – Top 1500 Albums (from LivePopBars)
    14. Phillip Phillips – The World from the Side of the Moon
    23. One Direction – Take Me Home
    29. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    35. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    48. Phillip Phillips – The World from the Side of the Moon (Deluxe)
    58. One Direction – Up All Night
    83. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    95. Cher Lloyd – Sticks & Stones
    97. Kelly Clarkson – Greatest Hits – Chapter One
    162. Cassadee Pope – The Complete Season 3 Collection (The Voice Performance)
    353. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (Deluxe Version)
    431. Carly Rae Jepsen – Kiss (Deluxe Version)
    481. Terry McDermott – The Complete Season 3 Collection (The Voice Performance)
    495. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    531. Carly Rae Jepsen – Kiss
    585. Nicholas David – The Complete Season 3 Collection (The Voice Performance)
    732. Scotty McCreery – Clear As Day
    826. Daughtry – Daughtry
    931. Carrie Underwood – Play On
    942. Carrie Underwood – Some Hearts
    977. Carrie Underwood – Carnival Ride
    1079. One Direction – iTunes Festival: London 2012 – EP
    1127. Mandisa – What If We Were Real
    1280. Casey James – Casey James
    1330. Daughtry – Break the Spell (Deluxe Version)
    1370. Chris Rene – I’m Right Here
    1371. Cassadee Pope – Cassadee Pope – EP
    1419. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    1420. Phillip Phillips – Phillip Phillips: Journey to the Finale
     

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1638805698 Jason Scott

    Thank you for this. Yea, 2013 will definitely be interesting for Country, considering that the genre’s biggest stars (Carrie, Taylor, Jason) released their albums in 2012.

    The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum have the biggest chances of selling well out of anyone, imo. For Luke, it all depends on his music.

    Carrie and Jason, I think, will continue to do well. They’ve been incredibly consistent in sales since their albums dropped.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000075236182 Diana Adams Tyler

    With Lady A Hillary being pregnant now, I wonder how much this will affect promotion and sales of their album.  Im hoping LBT hits hugely this year as both of their singles from the latest album are very good and selling well.  Im hoping Caseys next single will be Miss YOur Fire.  Love that song.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “21  20  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  4352  3947  405  27.841

    +125  Spins
    +124  Bullet
    +0.893  AI”
    Another top 20 pop hit for Kelly. Nice!

  • jpfan2

    HDD CHART DATE: 01/07/2013 LAST UPDATE: 01/08/2013 13:07:08 NOW IN: FINAL

    TW artist / album label power index % change
    — 1 LES MISERABLES REPUBLIC 108,637 — SOUNDTRACK
    4 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 67,933 — TAKE ME HOME —
    5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 63,419 — WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON
    — 14 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 35,303 — OVEREXPOSED
    — 20 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 24,430 — BLOWN AWAY —
    — 36 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 16,330 — GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 –

  • Anny_nanny

    –    23    ONE DIRECTION    SYCO/COLUMBIA    23,599    —
    UP ALL NIGHT
    —    48    CARLY RAE JEPSEN    SCHOOLBOY/INTERSCOPE    14,072    —
    KISS

  • jpfan2

    When you look at the whole HDD chart you see how well Mumford & Son, The Lumineers and other artists of that genre are doing. P2 is in the right place at the right time!

  • patriciajames

    Woooo Hoooo Casey James!  COAS still going strong and climbing.  His album is still one of my “go to” discs in my car, I never get tired of listening to it.  Hoping “Drive” will be his next single and that he’ll make an appearance on Idol this season.

  • heartly

    I also wanted to mention how last week’s Aircheck had an ad for Kelly mentioning her Grammy nominations for WDKY (Stronger). heartly
    reminded me they had that ad running at Music Row too so it seems
    they’re trying to get country voters to support Kelly at the Grammys.
    There was no mention of Kelly’s history in the country world in the ads
    which had the 19/RCA (but not Columbia Nashville) logo on them. I’d be
    surprised if Narvel didn’t have a hand it in it though because these are
    both places I’ve seen FYC ads for Blake
    Shelton.

    Pretty smart strategy, I think.  It’d probably be her, and the song’s, only hope for winning either of the 2 majors and given that there’s no country act (Taylor, I see you looking at me), those country votes have to go somewhere.  I’m not feeling all that confident that SOTY or ROTY will go to Kelly or Stronger, but I don’t think she’s as much of a long shot as some outlets have her down as because of those country votes hanging out there. 

    I’ve found it interesting that in Billboard’s special Grammy Voter Guide, there was no blanket FYC ad from RCA or for any individual artist on the label.  They seemed to be the one big glaring omission in the 83 pages, especially for a major label.  Since that’s come out, RCA has put up an ad on HDD (and maybe other sites, I just haven’t seen them) leading to this special Grammy page at RCA.

  • TheOther

    Love it!  The World From The Side Of The Moon should be around 600K by now.  I notice Phillip’s numbers seems to surge towards the end.  At around 50%, the CD was something like 11K.  60% 22k.  Final 63K.

    I thought this was really interesting from the BB interview:

    http://www.billboard.com/features/phillip-phillips-the-billboard-cover-story-1008074152.story#

    When 19 Recordings went through BMG and then Sony-BMG, then-chairman/CEO Clive Davis said the first 300,000 of any winner’s album sales were “a souvenir of the show.” Pushing sales beyond a half-million was the responsibility of the record company and owed to the material and the marketing. If one were to recalculate that based on album sales being two-thirds of what they were in 2002, the year “Idol” debuted, Phillips’ start more closely resembles that of Carrie Underwood than Taylor Hicks.

  • Hazehel

    Clive Davis said the first 300,000 of any winner’s album sales were “a souvenir of the show.”

    Well, that wasn’t true.  He said the  “a winner might sell 500,000 or maybe 700,000 albums as a souvenir. ”  300K might be a number you expect after the drop in album sales in recent years has been taken into account. 

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/monday/2009-05-31-business-books-tv-movies-clive-davis-q-and-a_N.htm 

  • jpfan2

      Even if the sales go down alot next week because the iTunes sales are over, another week  in the top 10 albums would be an amazing sign for the future of the album.

  • MV007

    I think Phil will need to continue to have a radio presence and until he has another song become a hit, I think people will remain skeptical and question whether he was just a product of a machine and whether he will have a long term impact. All the success of this album has done is guarantee Phil a second album. I don’t think that second album will be bought at a similar pace unless this debut pops out another hit or the lead single off the second album is a hit.

  • Caro3278sweet

    Can I confess that I eagerly wait for your weekly updates, windmills, with baited breath? It’s true! Thanks again for an awesome country update.

    COAS has a pretty good chance of going t15 Billboard in that time.

    Well, this would be the best New Year’s present I could get if it happens. My hopes were dimming for COAS in November as it stalled and seemed to be going nowhere. A t15 hit would be a steady improvement on his first single and sets him up (hopefully) for a successful third.

    My dream? I’d love it if my snowflake introduced Drive as his new single on AI.

    Hey! I can dream! :-)

  • Anny_nanny

    Tell me how much time it takes certification? I see that Rihanna sold 500k only last week but already been certified. I’m in no hurry, I’m just curious.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/OSOOTOBRL4XGHQNICOXCCN5IXQ lisa

    congrats to CaseyJ.my favorite all time idol.just love his album!I bought CD’s awhile back to give as xmas gifts so many that I gave them to had never heard of him,they really enjoyed his style of music.keep up the great work.please give us a sneak peak of possibilities of album#2

  • arkboy

     anny nanny,

    500,000 is certified Gold
    1,000,000 is Platinum
    10,000,000 is Diamond.

    Keep in mind though that those certifications are for actual shipments to the stores & not sales to customers So if someone has 500,000 scanned sales then the label has shipped more than that to maintain inventory on store shelves. That is why you will see someone certified as Platinum when they have sold only 600,000 or so, because there are another 400,000 sitting in store inventory. It is why Carrie was certified as 7X Platinum for Some Hearts when she had only sold 6,100,000 ( she would eventually sell over the 7 million) & why Taylor Hicks was certified as Platinum even though he has yet to sell 1,000,000 units of his post Idol debut.

    Also, keep in mind that these Certifications are not just given out. The labels have to apply for them & provide the needed documentation to show shipments. Many times a label will wait to apply for certification until they can get more than one at a time, (album & single perhaps) because it does cost them to do this. Motown was famous for not applying for certification for their artists & many of the big Motown artists are woefully underrepresented in the Gold & Platinum awards arena.

  • Anny_nanny

    I understand figures, and I know about the system. I interesting how much time has passed from the submission of the application for a certificate to obtain a certificate?
    And what figures shows Billboards, sale or shipment of products?
    Thank you in advance for the answer.

  • windmills

    heartly: Pretty smart strategy, I think.  It’d probably be her, and the song’s, only hope for winning either of the 2 majors and given that there’s no country act (Taylor, I see you looking at me), those country votes have to go somewhere.  I’m not feeling all that confident that SOTY or ROTY will go to Kelly or Stronger, but I don’t think she’s as much of a long shot as some outlets have her down as because of those country votes hanging out there.

    IA. They may as well give it a shot, especially since there’s not even any folk represented in either category. 

    heartly: I’ve found it interesting that in Billboard’s special Grammy Voter Guide, there was no blanket FYC ad from RCA or for any individual artist on the label.  They seemed to be the one big glaring omission in the 83 pages, especially for a major label.  Since that’s come out, RCA has put up an ad on HDD (and maybe other sites, I just haven’t seen them) leading to this special Grammy page at RCA.

    I noticed that about the Billboard Grammy Guide but hadn’t seen the RCA Grammy page. Cool! 

    You can definitely see the Kelly machine firing on all cylinders. Active management, active PR, and the label seems to be doing its part too. Visibility can be really important in swinging votes so Kelly’s team is doing a really good job as the deadline for final voting approaches. 

  • Hazehel

    It is why Carrie was certified as 7X Platinum for Some Hearts when she had only sold 6,100,000 ( she would eventually sell over the 7 million) 

    Some Hearts passed the 7 million mark ages ago. 

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “Since that’s come out, RCA has put up an ad on HDD (and maybe other sites, I just haven’t seen them) leading to this special Grammy page at RCA.”

    Thanks! I hadn’t seen that page, but I would have hoped that they would post that the song “Stronger” was 4x platinum, since the song (as well as the album) has been nominated for Grammies.

  • standtotheright

    Yes, but that doesn’t make it less useful as an example of how certifications work, since it hadn’t at the time.

    [STTR’s registered objection to certification process is registered]

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Some Hearts was RIAA certified 7X platinum on February 6, 2008. By that date, SH had sold 6,242,590 copies according to Soundscan:

    67 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE SOME HEARTS 10,772 -4 11,241 6,242,590

    http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=gmn&thread=56916&page=2#1660762

    By the Dec. 12, 2009 BB200 chart, Some Hearts had sold 6,876,376 copies:

    74 RLSG 41 57 34 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE SOME HEARTS 9,792 160 3,764 6,876,376

    http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=gmn&thread=91607&page=8#2535612

    Some Hearts ended up selling 7x platinum by the week ending July 25, 2010.

    29 UNDERWOOD*CARRIE SOME HEARTS 2,848 4 2,726 7,004,347

    http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=gmn&thread=99005&page=3#2943955

    So, it was a total of 2 years, 5 months and almost 3 weeks between the date of RIAA 7x platinum certification for Some Hearts (February 6, 2008) to the date when it actually sold/scanned 7,000,000+ copies at retail (July 25, 2010).