Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

There were 4 Billboard recurrents: Little Big Town and Josh Turner out of the t10, Big & Rich out of the t25, and Lady A out of the t30. At MB/Aircheck there were also 4 recurrents: LBT, Keith Urban, Big & Rich, and Lady A. There may not be any BB recurrents this week. Josh Turner will go recurrent at MB/Aircheck. 

Carrie’s Blown Away had a stronger week at Billboard than Mediabase, gaining 2.855 million AIs to move up to #4 (passing Hunter Hayes, whose single is on its way down from #1). BA outgained Jana Kramer’s Why Ya Wanna by 1.434 million AIs and trails by only 111k AIs. I feel like this is the final week for Jana’s song to gain but, this song keeps hanging in there. BA also outgained Dustin Lynch’s Cowboys & Angels by 847k and trails by 1.623 million AIs. My guess is this is Dustin Lynch’s week to get his 1st #1. But, Jason Aldean’s Take A Little Ride would have to come down for that to happen because TALR leads C&A by 3.850 million AIs. That’s likely to happen since Jason and Dustin are labelmates but, it depends on whether Jason’s label wants to send a message about the strength of his career in light of his current scandal by keeping his song at #1 another week. 

If Jason’s song does fall this week then BA could get #1 if the label chooses to push it. But, there’s no signs of that happening right now. I’d say BA’s more likely to get to #1 next week without much of a push. But, BA has to be careful because Lee Brice’s Hard To Love has caught fire and closed to 3.471 million AIs behind by outgaining BA by 2.021 million AIs last week. I’d guess BA will end the week at #3 Billboard. 

At MB/Aircheck BA gained 756 points and closed to 437 points behind Jana’s song. The current trend on both Billboard and MB/Aircheck is that BA will pass WYW but, I think Jana’s label still wants a #1 somewhere and could make a push to try to get a #1 at MB this week or next week. That has to be the reason the song’s still alive because it’s not like it’s selling that great or helping the album sell that great. 

This morning’s MB update isn’t very conclusive: TALR lost spins and had a tiny AI gain, C&A had a small spin and AI gain (+23 spins, +123k AI), and WYW lost 4 spins but gained 255k AIs. BA had the biggest spin gain in the t5 and the biggest AI gain in the t8 (outgaining Lee Brice) with a +48 spin, +532k update. I’d say TALR will likely start dropping tomorrow and the next few days of updates will be needed to tell who gets #1 this week. 

CaseyJ’s Crying On A Suitcase had a good week at Billboard gaining 1.076 million AIs and moving up 2 spots to #25 (there were 3 songs that went recurrent in front of it but Darius Rucker passed). Darius Rucker now leads by 160k which means CaseyJ could repass but I’m not expecting that. But, Taylor Swift’s Never Ever Like Whatever will drop below COAS this week so COAS should still move up to #24 Billboard. There is a possibility though that Zac Brown Band’s new one Goodbye In Her Eyes will pass so in that worst case scenario COAS would hold at #25. 

At MB/Aircheck COAS gained 361 points and moved up 2 spots to #23 with Kenny Chesney passing. Randy Houser’s song closed to 89 points behind by outgaining COAS by  402 points and passed COAS this morning (I think COAS lost some overnight spins though). Darius Rucker’s song is 522 points behind and outgained COAS by 484 points so it’s potentially a threat to pass too. Brad Paisley’s new one should have a pretty strong week and is 1569 points behind, so it’s a threat to pass if it picks up the pace this week (which based on this morning’s update it is). But, you’ve got Josh Turner going recurrent and Taylor’s pop experiment gone bad dropping below COAS so the worst case scenario is COAS dropping to #24. 

This is COAS’s 16th week on the chart. It is definitely going to make t20, but it’s going to take a few weeks. COAS isn’t acting like a song that’ll pass bulleted songs in front of it so for now, it has to keep gaining to take advantage of recurrents. The only song that’s showing some weakness right now in front of COAS that could peak soon is Jerrod Niemann’s Shinin On Me, but this is album release week for Jerrod so it isn’t likely to lose spins this week. Too, there aren’t many viable singles on Jerrod’s album so I can see the label pushing this one as long as it can. Easton Corbin may not make it to #1 but, I think his song will at least hang on a few more weeks and make t5. 

Lauren’s 18 Inches had a solid week at Billboard considering it lost t40 countdown spins, retaining its bullet and gaining 162k AIs while moving up to #38 Billboard. The fact that it continued to gain AIs despite lost countdown spins is a good thing, maybe even a good sign. The 2 songs behind Lauren, by Rodney Atkins and Maggie Rose, had very similar if not identical gains. Rodney is still only 91k behind though. Little Big Town’ll likely close in on 18 Inches with their Tornado but I think 18 Inches may be safe from getting passed by them this week. 

At MB/Aircheck, 18 Inches gained 117 points for the week and moved back up to #40. But, it  started off the new MB week with lost countdown spins on Sunday, even though it’ll get those back. Maggie Rose outgained Lauren by 52 points this week and now leads by 190 points. Taylor Swift’s new single will definitely pass this week but, that’ll be offset by Josh Turner going recurrent. Lauren should be safe from being passed by anybody else this week so, 18 Inches should hang onto its MB t40 position.

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These numbers only represent 54% of the data that HDD will collect.

girlygirltoo: Hi!!! *waves*. Few questions for ya :)

When is Taylor Swift’s new single officially being sent to country radio?

Is Kira Isabella, who I guess has the #1 country album on iTunes Canada, being pushed to US radio at all?

18 Inches only got one new radio add this week. Do you think the label will try to give it another push?

Thanks in advance :)

Hi!! :)

If you’re talking about Begin Again it was officially sent to country radio last Tuesday morning 9/25 seeking immediate airplay with a 10/1 adds date. It debuted at #37 Billboard and #42 Mediabase/Aircheck. It’ll likely move into the t30 BB and t35 MB this week. 

Kira Isabella is not currently getting a push to US radio. She’s the secondary opener for Carrie at Carrie’s Canadian shows though (or maybe that’s why you asked).

I don’t expect a big label push for 18 Inches in the near future but, I can see one coming if 18 Inches can consolidate its t40 position, keep moving up, and looks like it has a chance at making t30. That’s a long way away though. I think if the song can get to the #35 range then the label may start getting a sense from stations as to whether they might be willing to move the song up into t30 rotation and go from there. 18 Inches is 10 weeks old which is not all that old for a song by a non-established act. I’d say it’ll likely take at least another 3 months if it’s going to make t30. 

By the way I forgot to do a Recommended Read earlier but the lead article in Country Aircheck talks about the increase in syndicated programming on country radio. First paragraph:

Radio’s biggest companies are expanding their syndication
footprints, rolling out products by the barrel and writing another takeover chapter in the story of consolidation and the demise of live-and-local. Or not. “What you may be seeing is a concentration of programs as a result of group ownership and group decision-making,” suggests Premiere SVP/Programming Jennifer Leimgruber. “There are a few more dominant
players emerging and it may be more geared toward prime dayparts than it used to be, but I’m not sure there’s more syndication or use of it.”
Country Aircheck’s analysis of the syndication landscape and discussions with top executives explores that issue and more.

Syndication is important because as the article says, it’s another example of the block spin effect. If the syndication is for an overnight program then there isn’t a big AI effect but prime time syndication can be a different story.

I think the pitfall (at least the immediate one) for Lauren is the possibility of falling in and out of the T40 as the bigger names release music.  Some songs that might be in trouble ahead of her “Too Good To Be True” and “Let There Be Cowgirls” along with the T5 that will turn over eventually, Hopefully Jana’s will get off the board soon I would guess the stations are ready for it to move off. If 18 Inches could get to 37,38 on mediabase I would feel better.

So because 1 act out of the dozens and dozens of folk rock artists out there put up massive sales Phillip should pursue a genre that he doesn’t have any real interest in?

Mumford & Sons have a ton of industry cred and recognition. They have Grammy nominations. They have played at many of the huge festivals, including Coachella. They have toured for months on end. They have gotten massive promotion for this album, including a recent appearance on SNL. Their debut album did not have big sales in the US when it was first released, rather it was a slow grower — its sales for the entire 2010 calendar year (it was released in the US in Feb. 2010) were a little over 600K. It didn’t really take off until after they performed on the Grammys in Feb. 2011. Suffice it to say, that if they hadn’t built up their cred & recognition with their debut album, this 2nd album would not have sold anywhere close to 600K in its debut week.

A better template for Phillip — or any other artist —  if he/she wants to go in the alt folk rock direction might be someone like The Lumineers, who are rising stats in the alt folk rock world. They released their debut album back in April. Its peak position on the BB Top 200 was #11 (peaked at #1 on the indie album chart). The lead single off the album, “Ho Hey” — which coincidentally is used in another trailer for the same Clint Eastwood film that “Home” is used in (as well as in a tv commercial for Bing) — topped the Triple A charts for 8 weeks and also topped the BB Rock and Alternative charts, while peaking at #32 on the BB Hot 100. The album did not put up big first week sales, but more than five months later it is still selling steadily, coming in at #13 on this week’s HDD predictions chart at abt. 22K for the week. As of early August, “Ho Hey” had sold slightly more than 500K, but it is currently #29 on the overall iTunes chart and has consistently remained in the Top 50 for the past several weeks, so I would guesstimate that the song’s total sales are over 700K by now. 

These sales are probably much more representative of the genre than are the huge numbers M&S put up.

yes, definitely a great success story — but not something that I feel has much of anything to do with what kind of success Phillip would have if he ended up going the folk rock route. It has taken them nearly 3 years to get this point.

Just my opinion. YMMV

deleted

Hits Daily Double now in Final (Oct 1, 2012)

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
– 1 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 600,057 –
BABEL
– 2 GREEN DAY REPRISE 140,623 –
UNO
– 3 NO DOUBT INTERSCOPE 119,665 –
PUSH & SHOVE
1 4 P!NK RCA 94,972 -66%
TRUTH ABOUT LOVE
– 5 LUPE FIASCO ATLANTIC 89,778 –
FOOD & LIQUOR II
– 6 DEADMAU5 ULTRA 61,189 –
>ALBUM TITLE GOES HERE<
2 7 G.O.O.D. MUSIC CRUEL SUMMER G.O.O.D./DEF JAM/IDJ 55,044 -75%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
4 8 DAVE MATTHEWS BAND RCA 34,911 -45%
AWAY FROM THE WORLD
5 9 LITTLE BIG TOWN CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 34,482 -29%
TORNADO
29 10 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 27,708 +90%
SIGH NO MORE
3 11 KILLERS ISLAND/IDJ 27,692 -76%
BATTLE BORN
– 12 AS I LAY DYING METAL BLADE 27,015 –
AWAKENED
18 13 LUMINEERS DUALTONE 22,101 +7%
LUMINEERS
12 14 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 22,028 -16%
21
13 15 AVETT BROTHERS AMERICAN/REPUBLIC 21,021 -19%
CARPENTER
21 16 FUN. FUELED BY RAMEN 18,636 +3%
SOME NIGHTS
15 17 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 18,625 -18%
OVEREXPOSED
8 18 BOB DYLAN COLUMBIA 17,693 -47%
TEMPEST
– 19 JAKE OWEN RCA NASHVILLE 17,010 –
ENDLESS SUMMER EP
22 20 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 16,012 -10%
UP ALL NIGHT
19 21 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 43 CAPITOL/EMI 15,821 -17%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
16 22 IMAGINE DRAGONS INTERSCOPE 15,797 -29%
NIGHT VISIONS
6 23 CARLY RAE JEPSEN SCHOOLBOY/INTERSCOPE 15,072 -63%
KISS
23 24 2 CHAINZ DEF JAM/IDJ 15,045 -14%
BASED ON A T.R.U. STORY
27 25 JUSTIN BIEBER ISLAND/IDJ 14,873 -7%
BELIEVE
7 26 GRIZZLY BEAR WARP 14,636 -64%
SHIELDS
– 27 GERARDO ORTIZ SONY MUSIC LATIN 13,925 –
EL PRIMER MINISTRO
17 28 THE XX YOUNG TURKS/XL 13,854 -36%
COEXIST
20 29 MATCHBOX TWENTY ATLANTIC 13,398 -28%
NORTH
28 30 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 13,344 -13%
BLOWN AWAY
26 31 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 13,018 -20%
TAILGATES & TANLINES
– 32 ALEJANDRO SANZ UNIVERSAL MUSIC LATINO 12,100 –
LA MUSICA NO SE TOCA
35 33 KATY PERRY CAPITOL/EMI 11,222 -3%
TEENAGE DREAM
34 34 HUNTER HAYES ATLANTIC 11,180 -5%
HUNTER HAYES
32 35 TOBYMAC FOREFRONT 10,881 -16%
EYE ON IT
36 36 ERIC CHURCH CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 10,262 -9%
CHIEF
10 37 MICHAEL JACKSON LEGACY 9,945 -66%
BAD – 25TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION
9 38 EASTON CORBIN MERCURY NASHVILLE 9,575 -70%
ALL OVER THE ROAD
37 39 OF MONSTERS & MEN REPUBLIC 9,511 -15%
MY HEAD IS AN ANIMAL
33 40 TREY SONGZ ATLANTIC 9,458 -26%
CHAPTER V
40 41 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 9,455 -9%
UNCAGED
– 42 PITCH PERFECT UME 9,110 –
SOUNDTRACK
41 43 RICK ROSS DEF JAM/IDJ 8,951 -12%
GOD FORGIVES, I DON'T
42 44 TRAIN COLUMBIA 8,588 -15%
CALIFORNIA 37
44 45 BLACK KEYS NONESUCH 8,485 -2%
EL CAMINO
43 46 LINKIN PARK WARNER BROS. 8,422 -7%
LIVING THINGS
25 47 DWIGHT YOAKAM WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 8,368 -52%
3 PEARS
30 48 FRANK OCEAN DEF JAM/IDJ 8,365 -41%
CHANNEL ORANGE
11 49 BEN FOLDS FIVE LEGACY 8,344 -70%
SOUND OF THE LIFE OF THE MIND
49 50 ED SHEERAN NEW ELEKTRA 7,085 0%
+