HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 3-9

By On 10/11/2011 · 117 Comments · In America's Got Talent, American Idol, Charts, The Voice

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UPDATE: HDD Final
1 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CLEAR AS DAY 198,500

4 3 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 70,816 -21%
15 15 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 19,974 -2%

With 54.02% of the market reporting, HDD has Scotty out to a very convincing lead. How convincing? The current totals have him selling more than the rest of the top 5 put together. That’s probably not going to last, but it is totally fun to see an Idol at the top of the album heap because it has been a while. Scotty is predicted to retain the top position with around 170K-190K in sales. Kelly, Ruben and Clay are the only other Idols to debut in first (and Daughtry’s debut album did eventually get there which is impressive in its own way). It will be exciting to see what the final estimates are later today and what the true numbers end up being when they are announced tomorrow (or maybe leaked by the label tonight).

Adele is hanging out in second, as she often is and Lady Antebellum owns third. J Cole, who had last week’s number 1 album is 4th. Tony Bennett is showing some legs at 5th. His album features a duet with Carrie Underwood. Lil Wayne isn’t going anywhere at 6th which makes me think that a “Tha Carter V” is in our future. Jason Aldean, partly due to his duet with Kelly Clarkson, continues to party at 7th. Now 39 is at 9th while Luke and Brantley are at 8th and 10th respectively making it so half the acts in the top 10 come from the Country format.

The Voice judge Blake Shelton is at 18th, AGT’s Jackie Evancho is at 41st and Pink Floyd has added another brick to its wall at 50th.

CHART DATE: 10/10/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/10/2011 18:55:09
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 137,914
3 2 ADELE 21 56,201
6 3 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 34,155
1 4 J COLE COLE WORLD: THE SIDELINE STORY 24,155
4 5 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 21,300
7 6 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 19,801
15 7 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 14,726
19 8 LUKE BRYAN TAILGATES & TANLINES 12,621
22 9 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 39 VARIOUS ARTISTS 11,612
16 10 BRANTLEY GILBERT HALFWAY TO HEAVEN 11,254
…
33 18 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 7,267
…
50 41 JACKIE EVANCHO DREAM WITH ME 3,441
…
12 50 PINK FLOYD DARK SIDE OF THE MOON 2,384

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • jpfan

    It would be cool if Roughstock put out the number tonight. I think it would be hilarious if Adam and Scotty sold EXACTLY the same number of albums.

  • Chicagolaw

    Not a Scotty fan (I just really can’t take country music) but I am so happy for his awesome debut! And what a great boost for the show to have a winner pull in great numbers again.

    And let me add that I think his team timed the album drop perfectly. He gets great numbers AND a #1 on Billboard. You couldn’t ask for better publicity.

  • Trina

    When Clive made that statement that was a time when album sales were so different that selling 700,000-800,000 like Bo and Taylor got you dropped. Hell Blake sold more than Kris and Lee and he got dropped. Selling 500k today is a bigger deal.

    Hey if Scotty ended up in the longrun selling 400K fewer than Clay’s MOAM I’d be a happy camper! That album went on to sell 2.7 million.

    Holy eff 198,500!!!

  • hoa_teca

    I actually don’t care much about comparing sales of Idol contestant.

    All I care is Scotty’s debut number is very impressive. It is a good start in his career and is also helpful to AI too.

    Like suenigma, I started off as a non-Scotty fan. His deep and warm voice made me curious to check him out but the IT factor I saw in him drew me in. A look further into his personality and now I am a fan.

    He connected with the general audience despite singing country songs almost weeks after weeks and having weird stage behaviour (the way he held his mic or made weird expression). I was interested in him during AI but actually only became his fan after seeing how he handled himself after he won, how he improved and learned fast. And that kid is level-headed with good attitude about fame or success.

    What he is having now is not just 15 minutes of fame.

  • suenigma

    Scotty is off to a great start, and owing a lot to how people received ILYTB.

    Elliegrl it is all a matter if perception I guess. I think ILYTB is kind of a crap song, and it’s success owes a lot to how people received Scotty. Same outcome, big difference. Who knows?

  • hoa_teca

    If it’s not Scotty who sang ILYTB, it won’t be selling over 600k or reached No 15 on mediabase for sure. When the songs were first released, I remember almost everyone was turned off by it, saying Jimmy must have hated Scotty so much to give him such a crap song.

  • iani

    Absolutely great for Scotty! He is in good hands and there is hope he continues the success with the next album. Congratulations!

  • larc

    hoa_teca says:
    If it’s not Scotty who sang ILYTB, it won’t be selling over 600k or reached No 15 on mediabase for sure.

    ITA! I think the way people received ILYTB is owing to Scotty rather than the other way around.

  • car3278sweet

    I don’t think that my little prediction makes me merely a silly and flighty AI fan, whose whims and favorites change with the Seasons. You’d be surprised, I am actually a pretty educated and discerning music lover. Perhaps even as much of one as you are

    You’re not silly or flighty at all, Sue. Not at all. I have great respect for most of the posters on this blog – there’s a lot of music knowledge here – far more than I have, so that’s a big reason why I keep coming back and reading. So, we’ll have to just ride this journey with Scotty and see if your gut is right or if my gut reaction that he’s going to end up as a dentist is correct. :-)

    And sorry, Kirsten. Didn’t mean to pick on Sue when I chose her comment to comment on. Just having a friendly conversation.

    And congrats to Scotty. Really.

  • Indigobunting

    So I guess we’ll see when or if he reaches the top 40.

    Oh, come on! Of course CJ will reach top 40 with his debut. Most signed Idols reach top 20. I am sure he will, I just thought all the negative numbers for more than one Idol was odd.

    I think we need to give these kids a year or two and see where they are in the biz before announcing “a star is born”.

    He’s likely just sold close to 200,000 copies of his cd in the first week and he’s already had a hit on the country charts. You sell like a new star, you get the privilege of being called a new star. I say this as someone who hasn’t and probably won’t buy “Clear as Day.”

    I actually agree with Carsweet. Selling big for an Idol winner is expected, as is a hit. Just because S9 was a fluke bad year doesn’t mean because Scotty has returned to the usual order of things means he is a big star. I do think he will be successful in Country. But- Doesn’t guarantee long term success- see David Cook and many others. And just because he is Country doesn’t mean it automatically continues- see Kellie Picklers struggles. I don’t know what her album will sell, but I’d be willing to bet it will be a lot less than her last.

    But congrats to Scotty for a nice debut week; I’m sure he and his label are thrilled.

  • abbysee

    Sweet baby Jesus.

    LOL, I bet Scotty said something like that when he was told those numbers.

  • suenigma

    Hahaha. No worries carsweet. I suspect that the air that Scotty gives off that he’ll be just fine if this whole music thing doesn’t work out, is part of his charm. Easy-come, easy-go.

    I really have no stake in this other than my pride now that I’ve made my prediction public, lol. Like I said, I wouldn’t call myself a big fan, I just call it like I see it. He is unique, that’s for sure.

  • Pam

    Adds (monitored)

    Daughtry (13)-CBTY (1 Canada-CHR/Pop, 1 Canada-HAC, 9 HAC, 2 CHR/Pop)

    Kelly (11)-MKIA (4 AC, 2 Canada-Main AC, 1 Canada-CHR/Pop, 1 HAC, 3 CHR/Pop)

    Tyga f/Chris Richardson (7)-Far Away (CHR/Pop)

    Dave (5)-FIM (HAC)

    Scotty (5)-TTWG (2 Canada-Country, 3 Country)

    Mandisa (4)-WFT (Christian AC)

    JHud (2)-NOGLY (Urban AC)

    Daughtry (1)-Renegade (Rock)

    LINK

  • larc

    Pam says:
    Adds (monitored)

    + CaseyJ (7)-LDCIAN (Country) :)

  • Elliegrll

    If it’s not Scotty who sang ILYTB, it won’t be selling over 600k or reached No 15 on mediabase for sure. When the songs were first released, I remember almost everyone was turned off by it, saying Jimmy must have hated Scotty so much to give him such a crap song.

    That’s what a lot of people who post here said, but this small segment isn’t a good sampling of the people who the song was intended for.

    My statement did not mean that Scotty didn’t play a major part in how people reacted to ILYTB. Of course he’s the main part, because he’s the one interpreting and singing the song. My point was that without that song doing so well, it would be a lot harder for him to get radio stations to play his first single.

  • trimaran12

    Kris got the same promo as David Cook. I think the problem comes in when you look at the promo for Adam in comparison. It’s not that Adam got more promo it’s that his promo was higher profile. Cover of magazines, Leno, Letterman, Ellen, Oprah, AMAs, etc. Whereas Kris did the standard rounds of morning shows and radio interviews (which Adam didn’t do).

    If Adam got better, or higher profile, promo, it was because of the interest in him from the media and his fans. Kris got opportunities, professional and financial, that Adam did not get. Look at the Forbes list for their first year. Kris received income from the Idol win, Ford commercials, and other sources, that Adam did not receive. The Forbes list the following year shows Adam’s tour income, etc., income not generated from the direct result of the show.

    But since this thread is about Scotty, Good For Scotty. He was one of the favorites and frontrunners throughout the season; he has earned every dollar, CD sale, and bit of good will that he receives.

  • ilovekrisallen39

    That’s so wonderful for Scotty I really love his CD, and think it’s one of my favorite Country CDS that I have. What a wonderful late B.Day present for him.

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