HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 3-9

UPDATE: HDD Final
1 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CLEAR AS DAY 198,500

4 3 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 70,816 -21%
15 15 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 19,974 -2%

With 54.02% of the market reporting, HDD has Scotty out to a very convincing lead. How convincing? The current totals have him selling more than the rest of the top 5 put together. That’s probably not going to last, but it is totally fun to see an Idol at the top of the album heap because it has been a while. Scotty is predicted to retain the top position with around 170K-190K in sales. Kelly, Ruben and Clay are the only other Idols to debut in first (and Daughtry’s debut album did eventually get there which is impressive in its own way). It will be exciting to see what the final estimates are later today and what the true numbers end up being when they are announced tomorrow (or maybe leaked by the label tonight).

Adele is hanging out in second, as she often is and Lady Antebellum owns third. J Cole, who had last week’s number 1 album is 4th. Tony Bennett is showing some legs at 5th. His album features a duet with Carrie Underwood. Lil Wayne isn’t going anywhere at 6th which makes me think that a “Tha Carter V” is in our future. Jason Aldean, partly due to his duet with Kelly Clarkson, continues to party at 7th. Now 39 is at 9th while Luke and Brantley are at 8th and 10th respectively making it so half the acts in the top 10 come from the Country format.

The Voice judge Blake Shelton is at 18th, AGT’s Jackie Evancho is at 41st and Pink Floyd has added another brick to its wall at 50th.

CHART DATE: 10/10/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/10/2011 18:55:09
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
— 1 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 137,914
3 2 ADELE 21 56,201
6 3 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 34,155
1 4 J COLE COLE WORLD: THE SIDELINE STORY 24,155
4 5 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 21,300
7 6 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 19,801
15 7 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 14,726
19 8 LUKE BRYAN TAILGATES & TANLINES 12,621
22 9 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 39 VARIOUS ARTISTS 11,612
16 10 BRANTLEY GILBERT HALFWAY TO HEAVEN 11,254

33 18 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 7,267

50 41 JACKIE EVANCHO DREAM WITH ME 3,441

12 50 PINK FLOYD DARK SIDE OF THE MOON 2,384

Hits Daily Double

  • windmills

    Notes from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    At Billboard Kellie’s on her 2nd unbulleted week with a loss of 391k AIs. She got passed by Sara Evans and James Wesley but stayed at #34 because of 2 recurrents in front of her. She has to rebullet this week to avoid going recurrent. She unfortunately lost 34 spins and 68k AIs in this morning’s Mediabase update which is not a sign that Tough is going to recover. I’ve been in denial but I’m sad to say this song is probably done. Now I’m really wishing BNA had stuck with the October album release because this is going to push back Kellie’s album while they try to get another single going.

    Lauren retained her bullet this week at Billboard and moved up 3 because of 3 recurrents. She should hit 20 weeks before LMMD finally goes recurrent at Billboard in 2 weeks. LMMD will go recurrent at Mediabase after 2 more weeks.

    Scotty had a solid gain of 469k AIs but moved up because of 3 recurrents. TTWG will pass LMMD but get passed by Kenny Chesney’s new one Reality. Dierks and Brad are lurking and will pass in 2 weeks. There’s a chance he could pass Montgomery Gentry with a very strong week at Billboard. I expect TTWG will pass MG’s song on Mediabase.

    CaseyJ gained 146k AIs at Billboard despite losing 6 spins. He did pass Ashton Shepherd and Chris Cagle but got passed by Kenny, Brad, and Dierks. There were 3 recurrents ahead of him to offset Kenny/Brad/Dierks. He will get passed by Jake Owen this week. Kip Moore and Billy Currington are also lurking. Billy will pass him in 2 weeks max. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Phil Vassar reappeared bc I really don’t get why he was pulled from the chart. But, if CaseyJ has a good enough couple of weeks he’s got Craig Morgan and JT Hodges in his sights. Lauren’s LMMD should also be on its way down with her new single announced.

    Jake Owen’s Barefoot Blue Jean Night will finally go recurrent on Billboard next week. It missed going recurrent this week by only 2 spins. Craig Campbell’s Fish is also lining up to possibly go recurrent next week and Kellie likely will too. Trace Adkins and Rodney Atkins are lining up to go recurrent in 2 weeks on Billboard which is when I assume they’ll both fall out of the t10.

    So, there’s actually a window for CaseyJ to hit Billboard t40 next week if he can pass Craig Morgan and JT Hodges, hold off Kip Moore and Billy Currington, and get 2 recurrents removed in front of him without Phil Vassar coming back on the chart (or, 3 recurrents removed in front of him if Phil Vassar comes back). Or, if Phil Vassar doesn’t come back, if CaseyJ can hold off Kip Moore and Billy Currington, pass either Craig Mogan or JT Hodges and get 3 recurrents in front of him removed, he’ll be t40 Billboard. That directly contradicts what I said yesterday or Sunday about CaseyJ’s path to Mediabase t40 being easier. Sorry, there were some songs I didn’t think would go recurrent this soon on Billboard! CaseyJ’s now in a better position on Billboard bc of recurrents and bc 3 out of Kenny/Brad/Dierks/Jake have already passed him.

    It just really depends on how things go this week because CaseyJ is 113k behind Craig Morgan (who gained 76k this week) and 185k behind JT Hodges (who lost 121k this week) at Billboard. A more likely situation is CaseyJ will make Billboard t40 in 2 weeks but that depends on LDCIAN continuing to gain AI. This morning’s Mediabase update showed no change in spins and a +22k AI gain. Craig Morgan gained 14k and JT Hodges lost 36k AIs in this morning’s Mediabase update.

    Also, CaseyJ’s vid for LDCIAN is listed as being added to CMT and CMT Pure in Country Aircheck.

    No Idols ads in BCU or Country Aircheck. I’d kind of hoped Mercury Nashville would give us a sneak peek at what Scotty’s sales would be like with an ad this week but I think they’re going to let him get a week of publicity and then probably some ads next week.

  • mzbet

    Go, Scotty, go!

  • Pam

    Thanks for the update windmills. :) I kind of hoped Tough could get a boost with the video premiere but I think it has peaked as well.

    CHR/Pop
    18 18 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 4570 4256 314 24.17

    HAC
    8 7 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 3342 3018 324 17.572
    17 14 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 2012 1473 539 9.572

    AC (1-37)
    6 7 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 1311 1346 -35 8.158
    16 14 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 345 293 52 3.461
    22 26 JOSH GRACIN Long Way To Go 112 145 -33 0.198
    23 28 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 91 143 -52 0.129
    35 30 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 86 61 25 1.001

    Country (1-45, 47-49, 51, 52)
    34 34 KELLIE PICKLER Tough 1025 1132 -107 6.008
    37 36 LAUREN ALAINA Like My Mother Does 627 649 -22 3.243
    40 37 SCOTTY MCCREERY The Trouble With Gir… 616 437 179 3.241
    44 44 CASEY JAMES Let’s Don’t Call It … 348 369 -21 1.4

    Mainstream Rock (1-24)
    26 21 DAUGHTRY Renegade 46 32 14 0.174

    Urban AC
    13 14 JENNIFER HUDSON No One Gonna Love Yo… 920 942 -22 6.592

    Rhythmic
    14 21 TYGA Far Away f/Chris Ric… 1871 2607 -736 9.965

    Christian AC
    21 19 MANDISA Waiting For Tomorrow 432 369 63 1.735

    Canada-CHR/Pop
    37 36 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 328 277 51 2.116

    Canada-HAC
    8 6 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 716 655 61 4.144
    68 50 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 102 55 47 0.831

    Canada-Main AC
    16 11 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 203 157 46 1.515

    Canada-Country
    14 21 BRAD PAISLEY/CARRIE UNDERWOOD Remind Me 406 513 -107 1.238

  • Inconnu

    Jake Owen’s Barefoot Blue Jean Night will finally go recurrent on Billboard next week. It missed going recurrent this week by only 2 spins. Craig Campbell’s Fish is also lining up to possibly go recurrent next week and Kellie likely will too. Trace Adkins and Rodney Atkins are lining up to go recurrent in 2 weeks on Billboard which is when I assume they’ll both fall out of the t10.

    If I may windmills on Billboard, Craig Campbell can’t go recurrent because he had a bullet on the Oct 3rd chart. It’s J T Hodge I think who may go recurrent on BB along with Kellie & Jake Owen.

    ETA: Sorry, JT Hodges can’t go recurrent this week. I mixed the chart. But Craig Campbell can’t either though.

  • dadriany

    Could Scotty end up selling 200k?

  • car3278sweet

    I liked Tough but I didn’t much care for the video (though Kellie was beautiful). It was kind of a disconnect with the actual lyrics. I also think maybe Tough was such a different song than what people expect from Kellie. It’s pretty dark and… tough. LOL. While Kellie presents herself as a spunky, fun-loving, Lucy Ball reincarnate. So maybe that’s why it really didn’t click.

    Windmills, thanks as always for your analysis. I read them avidly whenever you post them. My question about CaseyJ reaching t40 – is how does that impact a song as far as radio spins and popularity? Is there an immediate pack of radio stations that will suddenly start playing him?

  • Pam

    i-tunes

    Singles
    18. Mr. Know It All – Kelly Clarkson
    35. Crawling Back to You – Daughtry
    45. I Love You This Big – Scotty McCreery
    51. Remind Me (Duet with Carrie Underwood) – Brad Paisley
    61. Fix You (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    80. The Trouble With Girls – Scotty McCreery
    98. Happy – Leona Lewis
    110. Run the World (Girls) [Glee Cast Version] – Glee Cast
    136. Far Away (feat. Chris Richardson) – Tyga
    137. Don’t You Wanna Stay (with Kelly Clarkson) – Jason Aldean
    169. Out Here On My Own (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    192. Spotlight (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    227. Like My Mother Does (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina
    289. Tough – Kellie Pickler
    317. It’s All Over (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    318. Dirt Road Prayer – Lauren Alaina
    348. Undo It – Carrie Underwood
    389. Out of Summertime – Scotty McCreery
    400. Cool (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    406. Somewhere (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    472. Better In Time – Leona Lewis
    481. The Middle – Lauren Alaina
    484. Water Tower Town – Scotty McCreery
    521. Before He Cheats – Carrie Underwood
    552. Because of You – Kelly Clarkson
    607. Home – Daughtry
    625. Clear As Day – Scotty McCreery
    630. It’s Not Unusual (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    631. You Make That Look Good – Scotty McCreery
    746. Bleeding Love – Leona Lewis
    831. Since U Been Gone – Kelly Clarkson
    901. Just a Dream – Carrie Underwood
    938. Something’s Coming (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    939. Stronger – Mandisa
    961. Walk in the Country – Scotty McCreery
    969. Whataya Want from Me – Adam Lambert
    980. Breakaway – Kelly Clarkson
    995. The Locket – Lauren Alaina

    Albums
    4. Wildflower – Lauren Alaina
    5. Clear As Day – Scotty McCreery
    105. The Sing-Off: Season 3, Episode 4 – Current Hits & 60’s Favorites – Various Artists
    224. The Sing-Off – Season 3: Episode 3 – Current Hits & ’60s Favorites – Various Artists
    380. Glee: The Music Presents The Warblers – Glee Cast
    398. Glee: The Music, Vol. 6 – Glee Cast
    488. Dream With Me – Jackie Evancho
    497. Glee: The Music, Vol. 1 – Glee Cast
    501. Glee: The Music, Vol. 4 – Glee Cast
    568. Glee: The Music, Vol. 5 – Glee Cast
    714. Play On – Carrie Underwood
    805. Leave This Town (Bonus Track Version) – Daughtry
    822. Daughtry – Daughtry
    878. Spirit (Deluxe Version) – Leona Lewis
    918. Soul Surfer (Music from the Motion Picture) – Various Artists
    921. What If We Were Real – Mandisa
    973. Echo (Deluxe Version) – Leona Lewis
    1002. Hold On ‘Til the Night – Greyson Chance

  • alonzo7

    I think Scottys numbers are solid but it amazes me that the Idols don’t sell more with that huge audience-proving that it’s only entertainment for the majority of folks. Once it’s over people go on to something else.

  • Pam

    CHR/Pop (Yesterday)
    52 52 TYGA Far Away f/Chris Richardson 420 395 25 1.722
    64 58 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 277 214 63 1.048
    61 66 ALDEAN, JASON/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 174 258 -84 0.886
    92 108 CLARKSON, KELLY Let Me Down 40 53 -13 0.179
    115 149 SANTANA Photograph f/Chris Daughtry 18 30 -12 0.046
    223 210 ALLEN, KRIS Heartless 8 7 1 0.032
    210 212 LEWIS, LEONA Collide 8 9 -1 0.042

  • Pam

    Mediabase (today)
    KELLY CLARKSON – Mr. Know It All: 47.357 (+ 0.216)

  • Fenway

    As good as that is for Scotty, it really shows how CD sales have waned over the years. That is considerably less that both David’s sold in their first week in Season 7. It is much better than last year, so that is a good sign. I don’t know the numbers for Season 8, but I think they were less that Cook’s and Archuleta’s.

  • Kirsten

    I think Scottys numbers are solid but it amazes me that the Idols don’t sell more with that huge audience-proving that it’s only entertainment for the majority of folks. Once it’s over people go on to something else.

    Yes, but that works for every artists. Look at the number one Airplay songs. They typically get an AI of over 100M a week. I don’t know how that breaks down to unique listeners, but I think 10M unique listeners is probably in the ballpark (sure, they play the song several times a day, but few people listen to the radio the entire day). So, 10M hearing the song 10 times a week and no song has ever sold 10M downloads (in the US) let alone in their debut weeks.

    There are a lot of songs I loved on the radio, but never bothered to buy. I hardly think I’m unique. Going on television shows and getting on your song on the radio is good advertising, but not everybody who hears and likes you are going to buy your product.

  • Incipit

    I see Lauren has a nice spot on the iTunes New and Noteworthy pop banner.

    So does David Cook – the radio edit of “Fade Into Me” dropped today – and is at 402 on iTunes Pop, moving overnight from 982.

  • Kirsten

    As good as that is for Scotty, it really shows how CD sales have waned over the years. That is considerably less that both David’s sold in their first week in Season 7.

    Sales have definitely waned, but Scotty’s numbers are not considerably less than Archie’s numbers. They are in the same ballpark (remember 137K are not the final numbers). And this is not Black Friday.

    Since it will be discussed, here is the list again:

    First Week for Debut CDs (if you have stats for Idols missing on the list, please post them with the cite):
    1. Clay – “Measure of a Man”(Oct 14, 2003) – 612,859 (# 1)
    2. Ruben – “Soulful” (Dec 9, 2003) – 416,569 (# 1)
    3. Carrie – “Some Hearts” (November 15, 2005) – 314,549 (# 2)
    4. Chris – “Daughtry” (November 21, 2006) – 303,677 (# 2)
    5. Taylor – “Taylor Hicks” (Dec 12, 2006) – 298,199 (# 2)
    6. Kelly – “Thankful” (April 15, 2003) – 297,000 (# 1)
    7. David Cook, David Cook (Nov 17, 2008) – 279,578 (#3)
    8. Fantasia – “Free Yourself” (November 23, 2004) – 239,389 (#8)
    9. Bo – “The Real Thing” (December 13, 2005) – 226,976 (# 4)
    10. Jennifer Hudson – “Jennifer Hudson” (September 30, 2008) – 217,185 (#2)
    11. Adam Lambert, “For Your Entertainment” (November 23, 2011) – 198,466 (#3)
    12. David Archuleta “David Archuleta” (Nov 11, 2008) 182,927 (#2)
    13. Jordin – “Jordin Sparks” (November 20, 2007) – 119,119 (#10)
    14. Katharine – “Katharine McPhee” (January 30, 2007) – 115,761 (# 2)
    15. Blake – “Blake Lewis” (December 4, 2007) – 97,500 (#10)
    16. Elliott – “Elliott Yamin” (March 20, 2007)- 90,439 (# 3)
    17. Kris Allen, “Kris Allen” (November 17, 2009) 80,109 (#11)
    18. Kellie – “Small Town Girl” (October 31, 2006) – 79,133 (# 9)
    19. Danny Gokey – “My Best Days” (March 2, 2010) – 65,231 (#4)
    20. Bucky – “Bucky Covington” (April 17, 2007) – 60,814 (# 4)
    21. Crystal Bowersox “Farmer’s Daughter” (December 14, 2010) – 57,804
    22. Josh – “Joshua Gracin” (June 15, 2004) – 57,048 (# 11)
    23. Justin – “Justin Guarini” (June 10, 2003) – 57,000 (# 20)
    24. Kim – “One Love” (May 4, 2004) – 56,894 (# 16)
    25. Diana – “Blue Skies” (December 7, 2004) – 47,000 ( # 52)
    26. Tamyra – “Dreamer” (May 25, 2004) – 39,091 (# 23)
    27. Lee Dewyze, “Live It Up” (Nov 16, 2010) – 39,000 (#19)
    28. Allison Iraheta – “Just Like You” (Dec 1, 2009) – 31,656 (#35)
    29. Mandisa – “True Beauty” (July 31, 2007) – 17,140 (# 43)
    30. Phil – “Phil Stacey” (April 29, 2009) – 13,135 (# 43)
    31. LaToya – “Love and Life” (September 20, 2005) – 12,546 (# 82)
    32. Mario – “Mario Vasquez” (September 26, 2006)- 11,812 (# 80)
    33. Constantine – “Constantine” (August 7, 2007) – 8,918 (# 75)
    34. Constantine – “Pray for the Soul of Betty” (May 10, 2005) – 7,467 (# 129)
    35. Paris – “Princess P” (May 8, 2007) – 6,320 (# 133)
    36. Jasmine – “Jasmine Trias”(July 12, 2005) – 4,855
    37. John Stevens – “Red” (June 28, 2005)- 4,349
    38. Ace Young “Ace Young” (July 14, 2008) – 4,137 (#160)
    39. Jim Verraros – “Rollercoster” (April 26, 2005) – 1,571
    40. Corey Clark – “Corey Clark” (June 21, 2005) – 557
    41. Ayla Brown – “Forward” (October 17, 2006) – 300

    Oh, and for a completely meaningless comparison, here is where the David’s were at the same-ish HDD point:

    54.02%: — 3 DAVID ARCHULETA DAVID ARCHULETA 116,181
    51.61%: — 3 DAVID COOK DAVID COOK 136,603

    Just goes to show that the percentage cannot be interpolated to final numbers.

  • ptebwwong

    I think Scottys numbers are solid but it amazes me that the Idols don’t sell more with that huge audience-proving that it’s only entertainment for the majority of folks. Once it’s over people go on to something else.

    Scotty’s numbers are good considering it’s a traditional country album with no crossover potential like Taylor or Lady A. Also, Scotty will shatter the best debut by a male country artist (Billy Ray Cyrus 90,000).

    Idol has a huge audience, but that doesn’t mean people liked the final 2 or the winner. People could keep watching even when their favorite was voted out just because you’re an Idol fan. Also, some people vote for another contestant when their favorite was eliminated. Ex: S3 I wanted Latoya & J-Hud in the finals. I still watched every single show even though that didn’t happen. I voted for Fantasia when my favorites were eliminated, but don’t have any of her albums.

  • Buffynut

    Fenway says:

    10/11/2011 at 10:23 am

    As good as that is for Scotty, it really shows how CD sales have waned over the years. That is considerably less that both David’s sold in their first week in Season 7. It is much better than last year, so that is a good sign. I don’t know the numbers for Season 8, but I think they were less that Cook’s and Archuleta’s

    Except that this has been a weird year with album sales, in that sales have actually gone up! The numbers experts, am I right with that info? I thought I remember several Billboard articles about it.

  • tuti

    what does it mean 138 album sale for scoty or its just a guess?

  • rivermaya

    ILYTB is sitting at #47 itunes all genre and #8 itunes country.
    I am beginning to believe this song will never ever die :)

    This will be a fun week watching the numbers from both Scotty and Lauren and I really hope both does well.

  • Tess

    Just as a little mathematical exercise… I took 200k in sales and mathematically worked backwards over the last few years taking into consideration the average 14% drop per year in album sales.

    2011: 200k
    2010: 228k
    2009: 260k
    2008: 296k
    2007: 335k
    2006: 382k
    2005: 436k
    2004: 498k
    2003: 568k

    Now of course these numbers are only formula driven and have no true relationship to the real world. But it does point out that a drop in sales of 14% a year translates into a pretty huge number over 9 or 10 years. So, who is to say that an Idol from 5 or 6 years ago would still be selling the same debut numbers as they did. I, personally, don’t think so.

  • windmills

    Inconnu: If I may windmills on Billboard, Craig Campbell can’t go recurrent because he had a bullet on the Oct 3rd chart. It’s J T Hodge I think who may go recurrent on BB along with Kellie & Jake Owen.

    That’s a good point. But, Phil Vassar had a small bullet on the Oct 3rd chart, was positive in spins and AIs, and they yanked him this week. Billboard works in mysterious ways sometimes :P Craig Campbell had a smaller bullet on the 10/3 chart than Phil Vassar did. I think they’ll yank him if he’s down again this week because Fish will be hitting 20 weeks. But maybe not if they’re not in a chart cleaning mood. Who knows?

    I think JT Hodges might be in trouble but he hasn’t hit 20 weeks yet so he’s probably safe this week. But if he’s down again and he falls out of the Billboard t40 then you may be right about him going recurrent.

    Kirsten: but Scotty’s numbers are not considerably less than Archie’s numbers. They are in the same ballpark (remember 137K are not the final numbers). And this is not Black Friday.

    Exactly. This isn’t the thick of holiday shopping when Idols winners/runners up usually release their debut albums. Not that I think Scotty was going to hit close to 300k with his 1st week sales even if he had released on Black Friday, but I think with a better 2nd single and a Black Friday release date, he probably would’ve sold more than 200k 1st week.

    car3278sweet: I liked Tough but I didn’t much care for the video (though Kellie was beautiful). It was kind of a disconnect with the actual lyrics. I also think maybe Tough was such a different song than what people expect from Kellie. It’s pretty dark and… tough. LOL. While Kellie presents herself as a spunky, fun-loving, Lucy Ball reincarnate. So maybe that’s why it really didn’t click.

    IA. Kellie’s still most known for her personality and Red High Heels is already one of her signature hits. It’d be one thing if Kellie were unknown and her 1st single were Tough. But she’s already got her “brand” and Tough doesn’t fit it so well.

    But, people know her by I Wonder too which is a better song than Tough. I wonder if BNA’ll send out Mother’s Day to tap into that side of things for Kellie. I haven’t heard the song but from the way Kellie’s described it, it sounds emotionally brutal and people might take to it.

    car3278sweet: Windmills, thanks as always for your analysis. I read them avidly whenever you post them. My question about CaseyJ reaching t40 – is how does that impact a song as far as radio spins and popularity? Is there an immediate pack of radio stations that will suddenly start playing him?

    T40 Mediabase would have a more concrete impact in that it would get CaseyJ on the Bob Kingsley Country Top 40 weekend countdown. But T40 Billboard’s something the label could use. It’s a threshold that stations would look at as a motivation to add a song or up its rotation.

    Billboard t40 in 9 or 10 weeks would not be too shabby for a newbie especially when you consider LDCIAN has moved up pretty steadily so far. The way I think of t40, it’s the 1st hurdle and it might give LDCIAN just a little bit of momentum. But then it’s up to CaseyJ/LDCIAN/BNA to keep that going and see if they can take it to the next level, t30.

  • bon

    Once the final report is here for HDD of album sales.
    Scotty’s MO should be “LET’S SPREAD THE MCCREERY MAGIC”.

  • Pam

    Mediabase cont.
    DAUGHTRY -Crawling Back To You= 12.034 (+0.323)
    SCOTTY MCCREERY -The Trouble With Girls= 3.914 (+0.031)
    LEONA LEWIS -Collide= 0.069-0.008)

  • Pam

    This isn’t the thick of holiday shopping when Idols winners/runners up usually release their debut albums. Not that I think Scotty was going to hit close to 300k with his 1st week sales even if he had released on Black Friday, but I think with a better 2nd single and a Black Friday release date, he probably would’ve sold more than 200k 1st week.

    Agreed. I wasn’t even expecting 200K to be honest because of TTWG and the debut week being when it was and so keeping those factors in mind I’m pleased with how things have shaped up so far.

  • Kirsten

    Except that this has been a weird year with album sales, in that sales have actually gone up! The numbers experts, am I right with that info? I thought I remember several Billboard articles about it.

    Yes. Album sales are up 3% over last year, but still way down from S7. Tess is about right with the 14% drop year-to-year except this year. If we assume 14% drops for two years with a 3% gain this year, the market is 76% of what it was in 2008.

  • Fenway

    David A. was the runner-up, though, so I guess Cook would be the comparison.

  • Elliegrll

    IA. Kellie’s still most known for her personality and Red High Heels is already one of her signature hits. It’d be one thing if Kellie were unknown and her 1st single were Tough. But she’s already got her “brand” and Tough doesn’t fit it so well.

    That’s a great point. I’m still surprised that Kelly hasn’t tried to get a position as a television personality, that seemed like the path that she was headed after AI, and even with her first album. With that album, I really didn’t seem like she was making an effort to be known as an artist.

  • Elliegrll

    David A. was the runner-up, though, so I guess Cook would be the comparison.

    I think the point is that they are all exposed to 20+ million people every week for about three months, yet that exposure is never going to translate to 20 million people buying an album. Besides, Daughtry has taught us that someone doesn’t have to win in order to sell millions of albums.

  • TurkeyIdol

    Just curious of that list of Idols opening week album sales. Allison Iraheta sold 32K here opening week debuting at #35 on BB200, but I don’t see her on the list?

  • Eileen99

    It’s good to see Kelly sitting at #18 on iTunes. The song’s AI is finally kicking in & translating to strong downloads.

    I’m excited for the final HDD numbers today! Go Scotty!

  • adolf_hipster

    Except that this has been a weird year with album sales, in that sales have actually gone up! The numbers experts, am I right with that info?

    Yes everything is up from last year. Digital single sales, digital album sales, overall album sales. I think the single sales are up in double digits from last year and albums sales ~6%. Not sure though.

    I personally think Black Friday is a double-edged sword (especially for new artists). It works sometimes, but mostly it only works if you’re a huge already established artist. Apart from your hardcore stans people will more likely buy *insert a big famous popstar’s name here* album first. And the odds that multiple stars will set their release dates on Black Friday is exceptionally high.

    For all we know it might have helped Scotty to release in a week with literally no competition at all. I’m sure his album is on the best display in all stores an also the promo spots are not packed with A-list stars. The next new album released this week will debut at 20-something place, they are called JACK’S MANNEQUIN, i’ve personally never heard of them and looking at their sales, nor did most America.

    I think it was smart to release his album now, when there’s no competition. Also the more weeks before Christmas you release, the bigger overall sales you’re gonna have.

    IMO everything points towards Scotty’s career being handled perfectly and this was the best release date for his album.

  • Indigobunting

    Just curious of that list of Idols opening week album sales. Allison Iraheta sold 32K here opening week, but I don’t see her on the list?

    I was wondering that too. Also, Danny Gokey on the list didn’t have his Billboard number on- He landed at #4 on the main Album billboard chart and #3 on the Country, behind Blake Shelton and Lady A.

    I wonder why the negative numbers for all the non-Scotty country Idols this am? I suppose Kellie and Lauren are on their way down (boo) but I wasn’t happy to see CJ with -21 spins down on mediabase this am after such a nice adds day yesterday-was happy to see the label hopped on it with the 7 adds after last week. The video should help kickstart sales, which hopefully will help airplay.

    As far as when CJ makes t40 helping with airplay, it probably varies but it seems like it could. Danny Gokey made T40 at 8 weeks for his debut and I do recall a bunch of stations adding him at that point.

  • larc

    Kirsten says:
    Since it will be discussed, here is the list again:

    First Week for Debut CDs:
    6. Kelly – “Thankful” (April 15, 2003) – 297,000
    7. David Cook, David Cook (Nov 17, 2008) – 279,000
    10. Jennifer Hudson, “Jennifer Hudson,” 217,000
    15. Blake – “Blake Lewis” (December 4, 2007) – 98K
    23. Justin – “Justin Guarini” (June 10, 2003) – 57,000
    25. Diana – “Blue Skies” (December 7, 2004) – 47,000
    27. Lee Dewyze, “Live It Up” (Nov 16, 2010) – 39,000

    Somebody must know exact 1st-week sales numbers for some of these Idols and Allison (32K). It certainly would be great to have them instead of rounded numbers.

  • Fenway

    Scotty has had wonderful media coverage. Adam had a lot, too. I remember thinking “Where is Kris?”, because wherever I looked there was Adam. Scotty is the same this year. He is everywhere. They are doing a good job promoting him. Must make other Idols wonder about where they would be with that kind of promotion. I think Lauren is getting more promotion than Kris did.

  • tuti

    is this real scoty album sale or guessing?

  • gangreen29

    Scotty has had wonderful media coverage. Adam had a lot, too. I remember thinking “Where is Kris?”, because wherever I looked there was Adam. Scotty is the same this year. He is everywhere. They are doing a good job promoting him. Must make other Idols wonder about where they would be with that kind of promotion. I think Lauren is getting more promotion than Kris did.

    Promotion doesn’t happen in a vacuum. There is a reason labels throw more support behind certain people, they believe they are more likely to succeed. Idols that didn’t get the promotion Scotty received would be wasting their time contemplating what it would be like if they received that type of promotion, it was never going to happen in the first place.

  • Avari

    Scotty has had wonderful media coverage. Adam had a lot, too. I remember thinking “Where is Kris?”, because wherever I looked there was Adam. Scotty is the same this year. He is everywhere. They are doing a good job promoting him. Must make other Idols wonder about where they would be with that kind of promotion. I think Lauren is getting more promotion than Kris did

    I don’t tend to equate media coverage with promotion; I think of promotion as the activities undertaken by label and management, and media coverage being one of the results of promotional efforts. The truth is the media will only cover what it is interested in. I really have no knowledge about the relative amount of promotion Scotty, Kris, Lauren or Adam received by their labels/management…but I do think the media coverage accurately reflects the media’s (and therefore the public’s) general interest in those individuals. My opinion only, YMMV and all that.

    Also my opinion only…I do think Scotty has a very, very good chance of cracking 200K in opening week sales. But if I had to put money down … I’m gonna say he tops out at 193K. Why? I dunno, I had to pick something. :-)

  • Kirsten

    Yes everything is up from last year. Digital single sales, digital album sales, overall album sales. I think the single sales are up in double digits from last year and albums sales ~6%. Not sure though.

    Billboard says:
    Album sales up YTD: 3.3%
    Track sales up YTD: 11%

    Physical albums continue to see a drop of 3.6% (for the last 5 years, declines have been ranging in the 18-20%). It is the sales of digital albums that are moving albums into the positive territory (Billboard).

  • Kirsten

    is this real scoty album sale or guessing?

    HDD gets reports from some vendors and uses models to guess at the rest. They are usually pretty accurate.

  • girlygirl

    Scotty has gotten more promotion than Kris or Lee did. Not in terms of the standard talk show appearances or radio show interviews — those have been in line with what the other 2 received. But the whole “introducing Scotty McCreery” special he got on t.v., the Grand Ole Opry appearances, all the ads in the trade magazines, etc. Those are far beyond what Sony and 19 did for the last two Idol champs.

    Now, can I say with any certainty that Kris or Lee would have sold way better if they had gotten that type of push? Nope, I can’t. But it would be nice if Sony had put the type of effort into promoting them as Interscope/Mercury has done with Scotty.
    But what’s done is done. It would be nice if RCA takes a hard look at what Universal has done and applied some of it to future promotion of the Idols still on their label, though. :)

  • Elliegrll

    but I do think the media coverage accurately reflects the media’s (and therefore the public’s) general interest in those individuals.

    The media is often nudged or lead by publicists and others in public relations. It’s not a direct comparison, but we can look at this past television season, where The X Factor got a lot of press before the season started. Based on the press it would be a good assumption that the show had a lot of buzz, and that it is a show that people were really interested in, at least more than other shows. But since then, the ratings haven’t fallen in line with the early press, and so the media has switched their attention to other shows.

    Sometimes, people’s album sales haven’t lived up to all of the press either.

  • JudyOhio

    So about when does the final HDD prediction come out today?

  • LaRue

    Scotty has had wonderful media coverage. Adam had a lot, too. I remember thinking “Where is Kris?”, because wherever I looked there was Adam. Scotty is the same this year. He is everywhere. They are doing a good job promoting him. Must make other Idols wonder about where they would be with that kind of promotion. I think Lauren is getting more promotion than Kris did.

    A lot of factors go into who gets what kind of promotion. I do think Kris was hampered by forces beyond his control.

    Scotty’s promotion is where I thought it would be. He’s the first Idol champ under the Universal umbrella and they want to establish him as a rising country star. They and Scotty’s management have handled him very well.

  • Buffynut

    I remember thinking “Where is Kris?”, because

    Where was Kris? At every radio station and Jingle Ball one can imagine!

  • ptebwwong

    Scotty has had wonderful media coverage. Adam had a lot, too. I remember thinking “Where is Kris?”, because wherever I looked there was Adam. Scotty is the same this year. He is everywhere. They are doing a good job promoting him. Must make other Idols wonder about where they would be with that kind of promotion. I think Lauren is getting more promotion than Kris did

    Scotty had great media promotion. Past Idols should not be angry or think “What if?” if they got more or less promotion. Labels do having an inkling of who is popular or would sell well. I doubt if Lee had the same amounts of promotion as Scotty he would have done well. The media didn’t care about him, his songs probably weren’t hits anyway, many people thought Crystal should have won, etc. are some of the other factors involved. Kris might have gotten less promotion than Adam, but he still had a huge hit in Live Like We’re Dying. He could have translated those new fans to his new single The Truth, but didn’t. I think it was just a bad 2nd single. Most Idols do not get talk show promotion during their 2nd single or afterwards off their 1st album. Adam did, but he had major media at the time due to the AMA’s controversy. Media covers who & what is popular. Ex: I don’t like the Kardashians & don’t understand why they’re so popular. But they are always covered by the media.

    Scotty already had sold well with ILYTB & his EP. From a business standpoint, the label was right in giving him a lot of promotion since they knew he could sell. Promotion the first week I think only gives you a leg-up the first week. Scotty & Lauren has to translate their first week sales & major promotion into new fans, radio airplay, hits, & potentially a long career. If not, none of the promotion the first week or any other week for any of the Idols matter.

  • CanadianLady

    But the whole “introducing Scotty McCreery” special he got on t.v., the Grand Ole Opry appearances, all the ads in the trade magazines, etc. Those are far beyond what Sony and 19 did for the last two Idol champs.

    But how much was that done by Scotty’s promoters and how much was it the GOO and GAC wanting to do it? I know from personal experience in a related industry that you can beg and promise, but the final decision is up to the TV show producers or the venue organizers.

    I think the world of country music simply embraced both Lauren and Scotty – I expect they were thrilled to have country music being given the Idol stage in the form of two very marketable and nice young people.

  • Elliegrll

    Where was Kris? At every radio station and Jingle Ball one can imagine!

    Jingle Balls and radio tours are a great way to ingratiate someone to PDs, so hopefully they will play the artist’s music, but they aren’t a means to promote someone to a mass audience.

  • CindyM

    What has Lauren gotten that Kris didn’t? No one got the CMT introduction before, but Kris did stuff with VH1 that I bet Lauren and Scotty won’t. You can’t expect the Grand Ole Opry for non-country acts, but Kris did do gigs like the NFL tailgate party where he even previewed a few songs, didn’t he?

    Kris was on all the major shows, including a GMA concert release week. Most new artists would kill for the opportunities the idols get.

  • Avari

    The media is often nudged or lead by publicists and others in public relations. It’s not a direct comparison, but we can look at this past television season, where The X Factor got a lot of press before the season started. Based on the press it would be a good assumption that the show had a lot of buzz, and that it is a show that people were really interested in, at least more than other shows. But since then, the ratings haven’t fallen in line with the early press, and so the media has switched their attention to other shows.

    Sometimes, people’s album sales haven’t lived up to all of the press either.

    Of course. But I wasn’t equating career success (by album sales or by whatever benchmark you choose to look at) to media coverage. I was saying that I believe media coverage is reflective of general public interest. Two very different things in my book. :-)

  • Elliegrll

    Of course. But I wasn’t equating career success (by album sales or by whatever benchmark you choose to look at) to media coverage. I was saying that I believe media coverage is reflective of general public interest. Two very different things in my book.

    That’s why I thought the example to the X Factor worked. Was the public really more interested in reading stories about the X Factor, or was the PR machine at Fox just more proactive than any other in making the people involved with the show available to the public, and hyping the show up?

    It may seem like a chicken and egg discussion, but it’s hard to say that people are interested in things that they don’t know about. It’s not as simple as looking at the amount of X Factor coverage, and coming to the conclusion that this is a show that people want to talk about, and then looking at the coverage for shows like Mike and Molly or Two Broke Girls, and saying that the lack of press indicates that people weren’t interested in those shows.

  • Elliegrll

    What has Lauren gotten that Kris didn’t? No one got the CMT introduction before, but Kris did stuff with VH1 that I bet Lauren and Scotty won’t.

    I’m not going to compare promotion, my comments were just to show that a publicist plays a major role. But, to answer this question, the only television appearance that I remember Kris having with VH1 was a short interview on the top 20 countdown, which is equal to the interviews that Lauren and Scotty did at CMT.

  • jpfan

    People just walk away from the show with varying amounts of fans. I think Scotty clearly has a bigger Idol fanbase than S8/9 winners.

  • Chicagolaw

    I don’t know, seems like Kris got pretty great promotion to me. Lee was the person who was seriously short-changed in the promo department. And, the fact is, because Scotty is country he will get some opportunities (like the Opry) that would be totally inappropriate for winners in other genres.

    Also, at some point, promo from management dies down and media outlets either keep up the buzz or they don’t.

    I do think it’s clear that Scotty, if we’re talking winners, has the biggest fanbase since David Cook. I also think that because he is so clearly country, he will transition beyond the “Idol bubble” much easier.

  • Buffynut

    Elliegrll says:

    10/11/2011 at 1:03 pm

    Where was Kris? At every radio station and Jingle Ball one can imagine!

    Jingle Balls and radio tours are a great way to ingratiate someone to PDs, so hopefully they will play the artist’s music, but they aren’t a means to promote someone to a mass audience.

    But I thought if there was one thing everyone here agreed on it was that radio play sells songs! Get the PDs on your side and you’ve won a big battle.

  • tinawina

    It may seem like a chicken and egg discussion, but it’s hard to say that people are interested in things that they don’t know about. It’s not as simple as looking at the amount of X Factor coverage, and coming to the conclusion that this is a show that people want to talk about, and then looking at the coverage for shows like Mike and Molly or Two Broke Girls, and saying that the lack of press indicates that people weren’t interested in those shows.

    I agree. It’s the media’s job to cover things they think their audience wants to hear, so they play the role of tastemaker to a degree. That doesn’t always mean they get it right, it’s probably more of a best guess situation. Then there are some examples of things that ARE popular (pre-Sheen meltdown Two and a Half Men is a great example, as is a show like NCIS) that the media doesn’t cover much just because reporters don’t like it or the audience for some entertainment media doesn’t overlap much with the audience of these shows.

    Anyway, for Idols, I think media is only one part of the puzzle. You have fans from the show, PDs, the radio listening audience, industry folks/label executives, etc to win over. People rarely come off the show with all those groups on their side. No use feeling bad about it. You just have to work what you have and try to win over/compensate for whatever you don’t have.

  • Elliegrll

    But I thought if there was one thing everyone here agreed on it was that radio play sells songs! Get the PDs on your side and you’ve won a big battle.

    Yes, that’s true, but we were talking about publicity and media coverage, and I thought that the topic was mass scale promotion. You mentioned the Jingle Balls, and all I’m saying is that they don’t give someone the same amount of coverage as someone’s publicist getting them an article in a nationally published magazine, or putting someone on a nationally televised show.

  • owanbe

    Yes, that’s true, but we were talking about publicity and media coverage. You mentioned the Jingle Balls, and all I’m saying is that they don’t give someone the same amount of coverage as someone’s publicist getting them an article in a nationally published magazine.

    But I have read it here from you that radio trumps all other forms of promotion or am I mistaking?.

  • Kirsten

    I don’t know, seems like Kris got pretty great promotion to me. Lee was the person who was seriously short-changed in the promo depatment.

    There is a standard set of promo events that every Idol top two finisher gets. Setting up the promo run for an Idol must be the easiest gig ever. “Here, Scooter, call up Leno, Ellen, Today, Regis, VH1/CMT and the folks at Graceland and tell them when Winner/Runner-up will be showing up. Yes, I know you just started as an intern. The contact numbers are in the file marked ‘StandardIdolPromo.txt’. Now, don’t bug me for the next 25 minutes, I’m doing my yoga”

    If there are differences between Kris’s and Lee’s promo releases, they are minor. They are both textbook Idol releases. Kris did have a hit song, but it wasn’t a hit at the time and if labels could buy hit songs, there wouldn’t be any flops, but there are. That song gave him some extra promo opportunities weeks/months later.

    I think we’ve pretty much beaten a dead horse here. MJ’s serves as an awesome archive of what Idols are and were up to. Let’s not turn this into an inter-seasonal fan war. I’d be stunned if “Introducing Scotty” on some country music channel can be proven to have made the difference between 39K in sales and 180K. Promo helps, but it can only do so much. Unique promo opportunities do come up based on the artist/genre. 19 PTB are not that imaginative and seem somewhat lazy if you ask me.

  • Hazehel

    Somebody must know exact 1st-week sales numbers for some of these Idols and Allison (32K). It certainly would be great to have them instead of rounded numbers

    For David Cook, the exact number is 279,578, which should be rounded up to 280,000. The album for Blake Lewis is ADD (Audio Day Dream, not Blake Lewis) and the number I have for that is 97,500 which I suspect is also a rounded number. Strangely enough the exact number for Justin Guarini I have seen is 58,749 which doesn’t match up to the reported 57,000. I have also seen different number for Ruben.

    ETA – the number for Lee DeWyze is 38,581. I suspect Justin Guarini number of 58,749 might be the total adding in street violation number.

  • trimaran12

    It’s difficult to compare and contrast promotion and publicity opportunities. Scotty and Laruren are country singers, so they will get opportunities that their fellow idols will not get. Do you expect Pia, James, or Stefano to get called by the Grand Ole Opry?

    Same with Adam and Kris. Do you think Kris wanted to be a judge on Project Runway? Or that Adam wanted to perform at an NFL Tailgate Party?

    Opportunities are going to be tailored to the individual contestant, and the level of interest in said contestant. Winners and runner ups are given lots of publicity and promotional opportunities. Are mistakes made? Sure. But at some point, the artist needs to generate interest due to their own talent, efforts, music, determination, and many other intangibles. If the Idolette does not hold the attention and interest of the public, their career will stagnate. It is what it is.

    (or what Kirsten just said)

  • Elliegrll

    But I have read it here from you that radio trumps all other forms of promotion or am I mistaking?.

    You are mistaken, just like you were mistaken when you made the same statement a few weeks back. I’ve said that all promotion is cumulative. And that the best type of promotion for certain genres, but especially pop music, and the one that reaches the greatest number of people is radio.

    But, here’s a minor problem, this is not what I was addressing. The topic was publicity, and Jingle Balls were brought up. My statement is that Jingle Balls do not promote people to a mass audience, and they are a one time event that take place in individual markets, and not on a national stage. And not to nit pick, but this is also something that is the responsibility of the label, and not the managers or publicists, which if you go back to the start of the discussion, was the topic.

  • Kirsten

    But I have read it here from you that radio trumps all other forms of promotion or am I mistaking?.

    You are mistaken. Radio is a great form of promotion for songs and is arguably the primary one. It hardly trumps everything all the time. Getting an Orpah endorsement was probably the closest to a trump card (and those iTunes commercials used to be aces as well).

    There are artists who do not get a lot of airplay who can move units (e.g. Josh Groban, SuBo and Justin Bieber who doesn’t have all that much success on radio). If you are an artist like that, great. But, you are a rare beastie.

    Promo events and award shows are another great way of moving units. Problem with those is that unless you are like the Biebs with a self-sustaining career (at least for now), those promo events tend to dry up if ou don’t get airplay. If you are amazeballs at performances with cred (like Jennifer Hudson) you’ll keep being invited. too.

    Then there are TV shows. Get yourself a TV show like Miley or Big Time Rush and you can keep moving those units. Again, not an option for everybody. And they will eventually be cancelled. And it hasn’t really helped the Glee kids move their own products.

    Airplay is just a very good way of moving units and I would recommend it to anybody who fits a genre. It’s not a for sure thing – Oranthi got some great airplay and couldn’t move units – but I still say it is worth a shot. The nice thing to about it compared to promo events is that the promo event effect will wear out over time while radio tends to give you more steady long-term exposure.

  • windmills

    I’m going to Pam the ITunes chart for Lauren’s stuff bc I think it’s interesting :)

    All Songs:

    152. Dirt Road Prayer (!!!)
    213. The Middle
    221. LMMD (AI performance)
    345. LMMD (album version)
    472. One Of Those Boys
    495. The Locket
    517. Georgia Peaches
    537. Eighteen Inches
    702. She’s A Wildflower

    Country Songs:
    33. Dirt Road Prayer
    47. The Middle
    50. LMMD (AI perf)
    69. LMMD (album)
    87. One Of Those Boys
    92. The Locket
    95. Georgia Peaches
    96. Eighteen Inches
    120. She’s A Wildflower

    Notes: Title tracks and songs at the beginning of the tracklist usually do better at 1st on Itunes. But it’s track #12 doing best for Lauren. GP has risen since Lauren’s GMA performance this morning.

    Top Albums:
    2. Lauren Alaina, Wildflower

    Country Albums
    1. Lauren Alaina, Wildflower

    Out of the new releases Hunter Hayes is #11 overall at Itunes albums and Martina’s #13.

  • LVD

    I wonder why the negative numbers for all the non-Scotty country Idols this am? I suppose Kellie and Lauren are on their way down (boo) but I wasn’t happy to see CJ with -21 spins down on mediabase this am after such a nice adds day yesterday-was happy to see the label hopped on it with the 7 adds after last week. The video should help kickstart sales, which hopefully will help airplay.

    As far as when CJ makes t40 helping with airplay, it probably varies but it seems like it could. Danny Gokey made T40 at 8 weeks for his debut and I do recall a bunch of stations adding him at that point.

    With Kellie it seems like her song is just slowing down. Lauren’s new single has been announced so it only natural that she would lose spins.
    As for Casey he is losing spins for two reasons. Last week in the beginning of the week he had 3 or so big updates. Since this is the rolling chart you are obviously compared directly to where you were one week ago. Now with the 4 big names racing up the chart, Casey wasn’t able to maintain that same big momentum for the whole week. Many of the people in that region of the chart are suffering as a result of this charge and many of them also dont have a bullet right now. But things will even out again as the week go on. If you compare today’s update against the published chart or Sunday’s update, you will see that Casey has actually gained AI, he is still 5 spins behind but I expect he will make it up as the new adds have just started playing the song today.

    There is so many things that have to happen for Casey to reach the top 40 this week, so I am not counting on it. Since it has been more then a year and a half that Casey was on idol and with all of the focus on Scotty and Lauren at the moment, he doesn’t have the same recognition that someone like Danny for example had. I think he is basically following the traditional new artist route. So I guess we’ll see when or if he reaches the top 40.

  • Eileen99

    152. Dirt Road Prayer (!!!)
    213. The Middle

    That is interesting (more than promo discussions from S8-S10 imo, but hey that’s just me). Are they mistaking DRP for DRA? (lol) Also – Zac Maloy just tweeted about his song The Middle but I doubt that accounts for much of a bump.

    I still don’t have my album yet but it’s interesting to see people’s opinions on their favorites as well as how the individual tracks are doing.

  • Pam

    I’ll take that as a compliment windmills. :) Thanks for the Lauren chart. It is interesting to see where her singles are charting. I don’t have my album yet either Eileeen99. It’s on it’s way though.

  • croweriver

    I just checked iTunes in Canada and for interest purpose only, the iTunes chart differs from above.

    All albums
    Scotty McCreery, Clear As Day – 14
    Lauren Alaina, Wildflower – 15

    Country albums
    Scotty McCreery, Clear As Day – 1
    Lauren Alaina, Wildflower – 2

    Can anyone tell me why itunes numbers are different in the US?

  • Pam

    CHR/Pop (today)
    52 52 TYGA Far Away f/Chris Richardson 419 401 18 1.727
    64 57 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 288 223 65 1.076
    63 66 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 170 242 -72 0.855
    93 110 KELLY CLARKSON Let Me Down 36 53 -17 0.163
    115 162 SANTANA Photograph f/Chris Daughtry 15 29 -14 0.039
    227 213 KRIS ALLEN Heartless 8 7 1 0.032
    196 231 LEONA LEWIS Collide 6 11 -5 0.033

  • Trina

    The only two things Lee didn’t get that some previous winners/19signed Idols got were the Fox New Years Eve show and being present at the AMA’s..of course there’s the obvious AI finale snub. Kris got Letterman, SYTYCD along with the standard promo and that very visible Ford ad that was seen during Idol every week.

    Anyway, the HDD chart watching here hasn’t been so refreshing in a long time.

  • Elliegrll

    Can anyone tell me why itunes numbers are different in the US?

    The US chart shows what people in the US are buying, and the Canadian chart shows what people in Canada are buying.

  • Niall

    Scotty’s success to me is simple: some people just connect on a deeper level with the public and become stars. Publicity helps, certainly ILYTB helped, but people outside of AI like him. Country fans probably accepted him very early in his AI tenure. A big AI fanbase plus a base of country fans and programmers ready and willing to support him equals a star being born. All the intangibles were there that made his record company’s job much, much easier.

  • Inconnu

    windmills says:
    10/11/2011 at 10:53 am
    Inconnu: If I may windmills on Billboard, Craig Campbell can’t go recurrent because he had a bullet on the Oct 3rd chart. It’s J T Hodge I think who may go recurrent on BB along with Kellie & Jake Owen.

    That’s a good point. But, Phil Vassar had a small bullet on the Oct 3rd chart, was positive in spins and AIs, and they yanked him this week. Billboard works in mysterious ways sometimes Craig Campbell had a smaller bullet on the 10/3 chart than Phil Vassar did. I think they’ll yank him if he’s down again this week because Fish will be hitting 20 weeks. But maybe not if they’re not in a chart cleaning mood. Who knows?

    Windmills, Thanks a lot for taking the time to answer in details. Obviously there is more to it than just a bullet or no bullet. I’ll go with what you say.

    As for this:

    Windmills says: I think JT Hodges might be in trouble but he hasn’t hit 20 weeks yet so he’s probably safe this week. But if he’s down again and he falls out of the Billboard t40 then you may be right about him going recurrent.

    I made a mistake! I was looking at the wrong chart!!! (I was looking at the Indicator one). Sorry! :-( I don’t think J T Hodges will go recurrent.

  • suenigma

    I agree Niall. Scotty is a star! I am not even a country fan, and the minute I heard him sing and watched him interact with the judges I knew that he was going to win. It is not about the best voice or the best looks or the best performance skills, it really and truly isn’t. It’s that rare combination of self confidence and humility/likability, not to mention that intagible something extra. He may look and sound like a rube to some, but those people underestimate his talent, charm and intelligence. Go Scotty!

  • car3278sweet

    Country fans probably accepted him very early in his AI tenure. A big AI fanbase plus a base of country fans and programmers ready and willing to support him equals a star being born.

    Well, um, no. Sorry, I disagree respectfully, Niall. I think Scotty, and to a lesser extent Lauren, have a way to go with country music fans and programmers. I think their current success is largely due to the AI bubble and the good press of the “new AI”. I think we need to give these kids a year or two and see where they are in the biz before announcing “a star is born”.

  • windmills

    Eileen99: Are they mistaking DRP for DRA? (lol) Also – Zac Maloy just tweeted about his song The Middle but I doubt that accounts for much of a bump.

    Ohhhhh, you know that’s not such a crazy thought. But you’d think people would listen to the previews and know Dirt Road Prayer couldn’t be more different from and better than ;) Dirt Road Anthem.

    I don’t really like The Middle so I’m not too excited to see it up there among the album tracks. But, people like what they like.

    Pam: I’ll take that as a compliment windmills.

    Of course it is! :)

    Inconnu I really don’t know what Billboard will do, sometimes they’re hard to predict because they don’t always observe their own rules. But it seems like quite a few songs are on the cusp of going recurrent before too long which will help CaseyJ make t40.

  • Niall

    I think we need to give these kids a year or two and see where they are in the biz before announcing “a star is born”.

    He’s likely just sold close to 200,000 copies of his cd in the first week and he’s already had a hit on the country charts. You sell like a new star, you get the privilege of being called a new star. I say this as someone who hasn’t and probably won’t buy “Clear as Day.”

    He’s established himself more in a few months than someone like Danny Gokey has in 2 years. I suspect Scotty is already reaching beyond the AI bubble for those sales and that whatever is going on six months or a year from now will simply continue to bear it out.

  • Elliegrll

    He’s likely just sold close to 200,000 copies of his cd in the first week

    I wasn’t going to do this, because your post made me smile, but that 200,000 would be more than 400,000 fewer than Clay Aiken sold and 98,000 less than Taylor Hicks. I’m not comparing Scotty to them, just saying that it’s best not to make these proclamations based on what idol alums do during their debut week.

    Scotty is off to a great start, and owing a lot to how people received ILYTB.

  • croweriver

    Thanks Elliegrll for your response. Makes perfect sense. Given your rationale, do you know if Billboard includes Canadian sales in their overall total sales figures? I would hope so, otherwise total sales for a new release would not be correct.

  • windmills

    car3278sweet: I think Scotty, and to a lesser extent Lauren, have a way to go with country music fans and programmers. I think their current success is largely due to the AI bubble and the good press of the “new AI”.

    The comparative results for their coronation songs say you’ve got it backwards. Again, there’s callout data that shows that ILYTB tested well (t15) with country fans week after week. Random, out of bubble sample. It doesn’t matter how hard that is to fathom. Statistically significant results showed enough country radio listeners liked that dippy song with those dippy lyrics.

    LMMD did not test well (thanks Tricky Stewart’s production). Lauren may have faced less prejudice from PDs in Phyllis Stark’s article but clearly radio got on board with Scotty anyway. They both have a long way to go but I don’t think there’s real evidence to back up the idea that Lauren’s got less of a way to go with country fans or radio. And, if you really think Lauren’s got less of a way to go at country radio, how quickly we forget how tough women have it at that format.

    The good press of the “new AI” is tied up with the finalists including Scotty and Lauren so I think you’ve got that one backwards too.

  • Kirsten

    Given your rationale, do you know if Billboard includes Canadian sales in their overall total sales figures? I would hope so, otherwise total sales for a new release would not be correct.

    Canada has its own charts. US Billboard stats will not include Canadian stats. It’s nearly impossible to get Canadian sales numbers, but the rankings are easy enough to find (and they are even published per major city on Canoe).

    I’m not sure why the total sales would not be correct without them, they are seperate markets. Same with television ratings which are per country. The only industry that I can think of that mixes the results are Box Office which combines the ticket revenue for movies across Canada and the US for “North American” movie numbers. Billboard box scores do consider international data as well.

  • Kirsten

    Please do not use another poster specifically as an example to make your point. Think about it if it were you. It’s not fair and it tends to make people defensive and scared to post. Please use more generalities.

  • paperheart

    I don’t know, seems like Kris got pretty great promotion to me.

    Kris got the same promo as David Cook. I think the problem comes in when you look at the promo for Adam in comparison. It’s not that Adam got more promo it’s that his promo was higher profile. Cover of magazines, Leno, Letterman, Ellen, Oprah, AMAs, etc. Whereas Kris did the standard rounds of morning shows and radio interviews (which Adam didn’t do).

    Regarding Scotty’s promo, I haven’t seen him on anything because I don’t follow country music so I suspect that to the non-country fan Scotty is pretty much non-existent now that he’s off idol and his appearance at the GOO or on GAC doesn’t even register.

    Radio is a great form of promotion for songs and is arguably the primary one. It hardly trumps everything all the time.

    I disagree that radio play doesn’t trump everything else as far as promo goes.

    Steady and consistent radio play is what pushed Kelly Clarkson’s sophmore album to 6x platinum (and Carrie’s debut album to 7x’s platinum). Kelly was virtually invisible to the general public (except for the fact that she was all over radio) because she toured all of 04, 05 and 06 with the exception few random appearances here and there.

    Radio exposes an artist to millions of potential fans every time their song is played whereas a one-off performance/appearance at an awards show or promo event only exposes them to people who are most likely already be fans and/or already watching. Those appearances can give a one time/momentary boost to sales (see Idol) but radio play can keep sales steady for months even if no appearance type promo is happening.

    Publicity helps, certainly ILYTB helped, but people outside of AI like him.

    So far there is no indication that people outside the AI bubble like Scotty anymore than they liked Kris or Lee. Only time will tell as to whether he’ll be a breakout country star and even with his first week sales being better than what we’ve seen in recent years for idol winners, I have my doubts. I just don’t know how much of a market there is for old school traditional country when the acts topping the charts are acts like Sugarland, Lady A, Carrie U and Taylor Swift. There’s a market for sure but Scotty is 17 years old and most male country singers sing about topics that are a bit out of his league, be that women troubles or drinking/fighting troubles.

    He’s likely just sold close to 200,000 copies of his cd in the first week and he’s already had a hit on the country charts. You sell like a new star, you get the privilege of being called a new star. I say this as someone who hasn’t and probably won’t buy “Clear as Day.”

    opening week sales of just under 200K do not a star make. One only need look no further than Season 8 runner-up Adam Lambert. Only his hardcore fans think he’s a star while everyone else says he’s barely a blip on the radar (within the idol bubble I mean)

    He’s established himself more in a few months than someone like Danny Gokey has in 2 years.

    Scotty also has the benefit of being pure bred country and marketing himself as such from the outset. Danny Gokey didn’t go country until he found that no one else wanted him. Country can spot an interloper a mile away and they will not tolerate feeling used (see Jessica Simpson too).

    I suspect Scotty is already reaching beyond the AI bubble for those sales and that whatever is going on six months or a year from now will simply continue to bear it out.

    According to Clive Davis years ago the idol fanbase used to be able to be counted on for at least 500K in sales for a debut album and everything else was them reaching beyond the idol bubble to mainstream consumers. I don’t know if that’s still accurate but opening week sales are almost 90% if not more Idol fans buying the album. The real test comes after the initial rush of hardcare stans buy their copies. Can sales be maintained or will they drop? Time will tell.

    Interesting note Season 9 is the only season where they failed to have at least one of the idol contestants debut albums reach Gold or higher. And Season 8 is the first the fail to reach platinum (strictly speaking in terms of U.S. Sales not international where I know Adam went platinum or better in several countries).

  • Ratna12

    Eileen99 says:

    152. Dirt Road Prayer (!!!)
    213. The Middle

    That is interesting (more than promo discussions from S8-S10 imo, but hey that’s just me). Are they mistaking DRP for DRA? (lol)

    I haven’t read any of the posts here, but just caught this one.
    It is entirely possible for this song (DRP) to be one of the favorite.

    I was listening last night of Lauren’s album while browsing something else in the Internet, and as soon as I heard DRP, I stopped what I was doing and really listened in. The song had something that caught my attention. It was so good and Lauren’s voice was great. I thought that I was weird for liking the song. I’m glad to know that other people like the song too.

  • Tess

    I just don’t know how much of a market there is for old school traditional country when the acts topping the charts are acts like Sugarland, Lady A, Carrie U and Taylor Swift.

    I must be looking at wholly different country charts because, though these groups and singers, have had some chart topping success they are far from the mainstays that are the core of country music. On some country radio stations that aren’t into country pop these names may not even make the playlists.

  • ptebwwong

    Well, um, no. Sorry, I disagree respectfully, Niall. I think Scotty, and to a lesser extent Lauren, have a way to go with country music fans and programmers. I think their current success is largely due to the AI bubble and the good press of the “new AI”. I think we need to give these kids a year or two and see where they are in the biz before announcing “a star is born”.

    Obviously, it depends what music & singles they put out. Country music fans & programmers don’t necessarily like them yet especially with the coronation singles they released. However, it helps that Scotty will be touring with Brad who is one of the biggest acts in country right now. That should help him gain new fans & get more country fans to know who he is. Scotty’s album has a few potential hits. It depends what the label wants to release next. Right now, I see him having the career of a Josh Turner, who has #1 hits, but isn’t a star. However, with the right songs & career in about 5+ years I could see him have a potential career like Brad Paisley.

    Lauren has a great 1st single which should be a big hit. I can see many potential hits on her album. Her hits might chart higher than Scotty’s since she is country pop which is lacking right now. My only concern is whether the country market will embrace a country girl who’s not one of the big stars (Miranda, Taylor, Carrie). Country recently has been all about the men. Also, we don’t know who Lauren is touring with yet. The tour should also help her gain new fans like Scotty. I’m hoping she tours with Carrie, but I think Carrie will probably tour in the summer 2012. If Lauren tours in the winter, I could see her be on Lady A’s tour.
    Depending how her album, singles, & country audience reception goes, I could see Lauren have the potential to be a star like Carrie. But I could see her career be like Kellie Pickler, who has had multiple hits, but isn’t a star. I think she has the music to be big, it depends if the country fans jump on to the bandwagon or not.

  • CanadianLady

    I’ve been a fan of country music for pretty well all my life, and I’ve never bought a cd from Taylor, Carrie, Sugarland or Lady A. Plus I don’t go for the drinking songs or shake it songs either. And I still manage to buy quite a bit of music.

    Now, a fair bit of it is by Canadians who are putting out some great country music, but there are also quite a few Americans.
    To me, traditional means Jim Reeves, Eddie Arnold, Marty Robbins, Brad Paisley, and a whole bunch of other great musicians. And Scotty fits very well in there for me.

  • Kirsten

    I disagree that radio play doesn’t trump everything else as far as promo goes.

    I don’t think we’re really disagreeing. I agree that radio is great exposure and should always be aimed for, but there are exceptions so it can’t trump everything all the time. A trump card trumps everything but a higher value trump card.

    According to Clive Davis years ago the idol fanbase used to be able to be counted on for at least 500K in sales for a debut album and everything else was them reaching beyond the idol bubble to mainstream consumers.

    The last two seasons have proven that is no longer true.

    The real test comes after the initial rush of hardcare stans buy their copies. Can sales be maintained or will they drop? Time will tell.

    Most definitely. Although, I would think that having the press screaming “Idol is back!”, “Best debut by a male Country Artist”, “Look at these fab numbers” makes the job a little easier than “Can Idol Still Launch Superstars – Not Anymore”, “Worst debut by an Idol EVER!” and “Look at these sucky numbers!”. Positive press may cause somebody to look you over with interest and that person may become a fan.

  • larc

    HDD now in FINAL:

    SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 198,500

  • ptebwwong

    I just don’t know how much of a market there is for old school traditional country when the acts topping the charts are acts like Sugarland, Lady A, Carrie U and Taylor Swift.

    That’s only 4 artists. I regularly listen to country music. I would say there’s definitely less than 8 artists who are country-pop who consistently top the charts. Even Miranda Lambert is not in the same group with the 4 named. She does not sell well outside of the country market. I would consider her a country rock artist. Jason Aldean & the newcomers topping the charts are country rock. But there has always been room in the top 10 for traditionalists like Josh Turner, George Strait, etc. & even to an extent many people think of Brad Paisley as a traditional country artist. Also, Scotty’s voice may sound traditional country, but his album is not traditional country. I think it’s a contemporary country album it’s just not the country pop or rock most people hear. To me, his album sounds like some of the early albums of Brad (not necessarily a bad thing). There’s some emotional songs, fun songs, & country rock type songs on his album.

  • Niall

    wasn’t going to do this, because your post made me smile, but that 200,000 would be more than 400,000 fewer than Clay Aiken sold and 98,000 less than Taylor Hicks. I’m not comparing Scotty to them, just saying that it’s best not to make these proclamations based on what idol alums do during their debut week.

    Apples and oranges at this point, given the passage of time and difference in genre. At a certain point in time Clay WAS a huge star and it was fair to call him one based on the sales of his first cd. But he faded, as all but the biggest superstars eventually do. :) Scotty could be in for the same fate someday but for now his launch is highly successful and I think he’s got a lot less work to do with country fans than people might think. He’s in and he’ll be even more in with them by the time the Paisley tour is done.

  • Pam

    CHART DATE: 10/10/2011
    LAST UPDATE: 10/11/2011 13:44:26
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label power index % change
    – 1 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 198,500 —
    CLEAR AS DAY

    3 2 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 110,373 -6%
    21
    4 3 TONY BENNETT COLUMBIA 70,816 -21%
    DUETS II
    6 4 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 59,346 -20%
    OWN THE NIGHT
    1 5 J COLE ROC NATION/COLUMBIA 54,808 -75%
    COLE WORLD: THE SIDELINE STORY
    7 6 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV REPUBLIC 52,403 -22%
    THA CARTER IV
    — 7 RODNEY ATKINS CURB 34,195 —
    TAKE A BACK ROAD
    — 8 FEIST UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 33,923 —
    METALS
    2 9 BLINK-182 INTERSCOPE 31,880 -79%
    NEIGHBORHOODS
    — 10 JACK’S MANNEQUIN SIRE 27,724 —
    PEOPLE & THINGS

    15 15 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 19,974 -2%
    MY KINDA PARTY

    24 20 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 15,046 -1%
    19

    33 37 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 9,882 -8%
    RED RIVER BLUE

    12 38 PINK FLOYD CAPITOL/EMI 9,690 -64%
    DARK SIDE OF THE MOON

    47 50 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 7,826 -13%
    YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE

    HDD sales chart

  • NOLA

    198,500 FINAL

    WTG, Scotty!!!!!!!!!

  • suenigma

    Suenigma makes my point exactly. She is a Scotty fan but she doesn’t usually listen to country music. Not that either of these facts are bad or wrong – just that they show who is following Scotty right now. And I think, to a large extent, it’s not your average country music fan/buyer nor the country PD/DJ who is all about Scotty at this point. Will Sue still be following and buying Scotty music two years from now? I would say that is unlikely looking at past AI alums.

    Lol. The irony carsweet is that I am not a Scotty “fan”. I am a diehard Kelly Clarkson and David Cook fan, and to a lesser extent Adam. And that is about it. I love American Idol the show and I like almost all of the contestants. The talent of people like Bo and Melinda and Elliot and Chrystal and Casey James and Kris, etc is undeniable to me, but I also don’t think they have “IT”, and unless lightning strikes and they release just the right song at just the right time, I don’t see any of them becoming stars. I am not a huge Carrie or Daughtry fan, TBH, but I had the exact same reaction to each of them that I did to Scotty. It is just a gut feeling and an opinion. I know that Iovine is not a huge fan of Scotty’s music and was frustrated by some of his choices, but he almost begrudgingly admitted that he thought Scotty was going to be a huge star. I may turn out to be wrong, obviously (I thought the same thing about Jordin Sparks) but I don’t think that my little prediction makes me merely a silly and flighty AI fan, whose whims and favorites change with the Seasons. You’d be surprised, I am actually a pretty educated and discerning music lover. Perhaps even as much of one as you are. :)

  • Kylee

    Wow, Scotty has outsold Adam’s first week by 500! He has the most successful debut since Cook!

  • eyelinerandcigarettes

    – 1 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 198,500 –
    CLEAR AS DAY

    Sweet baby Jesus.

  • larc

    Congrats to Scotty on 198,500!!! :)

    Actual numbers tomorrow (or hopefully tonight on Roughstock) will tell whether Scotty sold more or less than Adam did in 2009. Adam’s official count for FYE was 198,466.

  • LexieN

    Happy, happy dancing!!!

  • mmb

    Wow, Scotty has outsold Adam’s first week by 500! He has the most successful debut since Cook!

    Welll, Adams first week sales were 198,466. So his estimate has him beating Adam by 34 units, not 500. When the actual numbers come out tomorrow Scotty’s sales may exceed the estimate, or they could be less than the estimate. Either way, the actual sales are likely to be within 10-20k in either direction. Great debut numbers for Scotty!!

  • TurkeyIdol

    Now will see if he can sell 850K(1.3million worldwide) like FYE! At least Scotty the Winner sold as much as the runnerup Adam! Shouldn’t you compare winners to winners :)

  • CindyM

    Lol, already covered.

    Great sales Scotty!!

  • luly

    Great numbers for scotty!

  • jpfan

    It would be cool if Roughstock put out the number tonight. I think it would be hilarious if Adam and Scotty sold EXACTLY the same number of albums.

  • Chicagolaw

    Not a Scotty fan (I just really can’t take country music) but I am so happy for his awesome debut! And what a great boost for the show to have a winner pull in great numbers again.

    And let me add that I think his team timed the album drop perfectly. He gets great numbers AND a #1 on Billboard. You couldn’t ask for better publicity.

  • Trina

    When Clive made that statement that was a time when album sales were so different that selling 700,000-800,000 like Bo and Taylor got you dropped. Hell Blake sold more than Kris and Lee and he got dropped. Selling 500k today is a bigger deal.

    Hey if Scotty ended up in the longrun selling 400K fewer than Clay’s MOAM I’d be a happy camper! That album went on to sell 2.7 million.

    Holy eff 198,500!!!

  • hoa_teca

    I actually don’t care much about comparing sales of Idol contestant.

    All I care is Scotty’s debut number is very impressive. It is a good start in his career and is also helpful to AI too.

    Like suenigma, I started off as a non-Scotty fan. His deep and warm voice made me curious to check him out but the IT factor I saw in him drew me in. A look further into his personality and now I am a fan.

    He connected with the general audience despite singing country songs almost weeks after weeks and having weird stage behaviour (the way he held his mic or made weird expression). I was interested in him during AI but actually only became his fan after seeing how he handled himself after he won, how he improved and learned fast. And that kid is level-headed with good attitude about fame or success.

    What he is having now is not just 15 minutes of fame.

  • suenigma

    Scotty is off to a great start, and owing a lot to how people received ILYTB.

    Elliegrl it is all a matter if perception I guess. I think ILYTB is kind of a crap song, and it’s success owes a lot to how people received Scotty. Same outcome, big difference. Who knows?

  • hoa_teca

    If it’s not Scotty who sang ILYTB, it won’t be selling over 600k or reached No 15 on mediabase for sure. When the songs were first released, I remember almost everyone was turned off by it, saying Jimmy must have hated Scotty so much to give him such a crap song.

  • iani

    Absolutely great for Scotty! He is in good hands and there is hope he continues the success with the next album. Congratulations!

  • larc

    hoa_teca says:
    If it’s not Scotty who sang ILYTB, it won’t be selling over 600k or reached No 15 on mediabase for sure.

    ITA! I think the way people received ILYTB is owing to Scotty rather than the other way around.

  • car3278sweet

    I don’t think that my little prediction makes me merely a silly and flighty AI fan, whose whims and favorites change with the Seasons. You’d be surprised, I am actually a pretty educated and discerning music lover. Perhaps even as much of one as you are

    You’re not silly or flighty at all, Sue. Not at all. I have great respect for most of the posters on this blog – there’s a lot of music knowledge here – far more than I have, so that’s a big reason why I keep coming back and reading. So, we’ll have to just ride this journey with Scotty and see if your gut is right or if my gut reaction that he’s going to end up as a dentist is correct. :-)

    And sorry, Kirsten. Didn’t mean to pick on Sue when I chose her comment to comment on. Just having a friendly conversation.

    And congrats to Scotty. Really.

  • Indigobunting

    So I guess we’ll see when or if he reaches the top 40.

    Oh, come on! Of course CJ will reach top 40 with his debut. Most signed Idols reach top 20. I am sure he will, I just thought all the negative numbers for more than one Idol was odd.

    I think we need to give these kids a year or two and see where they are in the biz before announcing “a star is born”.

    He’s likely just sold close to 200,000 copies of his cd in the first week and he’s already had a hit on the country charts. You sell like a new star, you get the privilege of being called a new star. I say this as someone who hasn’t and probably won’t buy “Clear as Day.”

    I actually agree with Carsweet. Selling big for an Idol winner is expected, as is a hit. Just because S9 was a fluke bad year doesn’t mean because Scotty has returned to the usual order of things means he is a big star. I do think he will be successful in Country. But- Doesn’t guarantee long term success- see David Cook and many others. And just because he is Country doesn’t mean it automatically continues- see Kellie Picklers struggles. I don’t know what her album will sell, but I’d be willing to bet it will be a lot less than her last.

    But congrats to Scotty for a nice debut week; I’m sure he and his label are thrilled.

  • abbysee

    Sweet baby Jesus.

    LOL, I bet Scotty said something like that when he was told those numbers.

  • suenigma

    Hahaha. No worries carsweet. I suspect that the air that Scotty gives off that he’ll be just fine if this whole music thing doesn’t work out, is part of his charm. Easy-come, easy-go.

    I really have no stake in this other than my pride now that I’ve made my prediction public, lol. Like I said, I wouldn’t call myself a big fan, I just call it like I see it. He is unique, that’s for sure.

  • Pam

    Adds (monitored)

    Daughtry (13)-CBTY (1 Canada-CHR/Pop, 1 Canada-HAC, 9 HAC, 2 CHR/Pop)

    Kelly (11)-MKIA (4 AC, 2 Canada-Main AC, 1 Canada-CHR/Pop, 1 HAC, 3 CHR/Pop)

    Tyga f/Chris Richardson (7)-Far Away (CHR/Pop)

    Dave (5)-FIM (HAC)

    Scotty (5)-TTWG (2 Canada-Country, 3 Country)

    Mandisa (4)-WFT (Christian AC)

    JHud (2)-NOGLY (Urban AC)

    Daughtry (1)-Renegade (Rock)

    LINK

  • larc

    Pam says:
    Adds (monitored)

    + CaseyJ (7)-LDCIAN (Country) :)

  • Elliegrll

    If it’s not Scotty who sang ILYTB, it won’t be selling over 600k or reached No 15 on mediabase for sure. When the songs were first released, I remember almost everyone was turned off by it, saying Jimmy must have hated Scotty so much to give him such a crap song.

    That’s what a lot of people who post here said, but this small segment isn’t a good sampling of the people who the song was intended for.

    My statement did not mean that Scotty didn’t play a major part in how people reacted to ILYTB. Of course he’s the main part, because he’s the one interpreting and singing the song. My point was that without that song doing so well, it would be a lot harder for him to get radio stations to play his first single.

  • trimaran12

    Kris got the same promo as David Cook. I think the problem comes in when you look at the promo for Adam in comparison. It’s not that Adam got more promo it’s that his promo was higher profile. Cover of magazines, Leno, Letterman, Ellen, Oprah, AMAs, etc. Whereas Kris did the standard rounds of morning shows and radio interviews (which Adam didn’t do).

    If Adam got better, or higher profile, promo, it was because of the interest in him from the media and his fans. Kris got opportunities, professional and financial, that Adam did not get. Look at the Forbes list for their first year. Kris received income from the Idol win, Ford commercials, and other sources, that Adam did not receive. The Forbes list the following year shows Adam’s tour income, etc., income not generated from the direct result of the show.

    But since this thread is about Scotty, Good For Scotty. He was one of the favorites and frontrunners throughout the season; he has earned every dollar, CD sale, and bit of good will that he receives.

  • ilovekrisallen39

    That’s so wonderful for Scotty I really love his CD, and think it’s one of my favorite Country CDS that I have. What a wonderful late B.Day present for him.