HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 17-23

By On 10/25/2011 · 42 Comments · In American Idol, Charts, The Voice

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With 55.94% of some nebulous entity reporting in, 4 Idols are in the top 10. First up is Scotty who’s “Clear as Day” is currently sitting at third. Both HDD and BB predict he will comfortably stay there. Drops from second->third week are usually in the 40% range and if last week showed us anything, HDD’s “Now In” percentages mean very little for any individual artist. Scotty should continue to have the number 1 Country Album this week.

Next up is Lauren Alaina who has only dropped one spot to 6th. Her “Wildflower” is on its second week and we normally see 1st to 2nd week drops in the 60-70% range. Last week, she managed to exceed her “weakend” predictions, so the trend may repeat itself this week.

Finally, a couple of duets fill out the Idol top 10 dance card. Kelly’s duet with Jason Aldean is still charting on the mainstream formats and that helps to fuel sales of “My Kinda Party” which is currently at 9th. Right behind that album is Tony Bennett’s “Duet’s II” which features a duet with Carrie Underwood.

The top debut this week will be Casting Crowns “Come to the Well”. The album also tops the chart right now after a big update late yesterday. The album is predicted to battle it out with Adele’s “21″ for top album of the week. Her album sits in second for now. Joe Kedar’s “The Good, the Bad, The Sexy” is debuting and is currently in 4th. Lady Antebellum rounds out the top 5, Lil Wayne is 7th and Evanesence was number 1 last week sits at 8th this week.

The Voice Judges are also doing some charting. Blake Shelton’s latest album, “Red River Blue”, and his “Footloose” cover are currently at 25th and 26th respectively. Adam’s Maroon 5′s “Moves Like Jagger” is topping the pop chart (and recently topped the HAC chart) which is helping to move those units. “Hands All Over” is in 31st position.

We should be getting 1 Day predictions for Kelly’s album today, so hold onto your hats!

CHART DATE: 10/24/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/24/2011 15:42:31
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 CASTING CROWNS COME TO THE WELL 58,248
2 2 ADELE 21 54,255
4 3 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 42,531
– 4 JOE KEDAR THE GOOD THE BAD THE SEXY 21,908
8 5 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 21,556
5 6 LAUREN ALAINA WILDFLOWER 16,971
9 7 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 16,854
1 8 EVANESCENCE EVANESCENCE 16,801
15 9 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 12,329
6 10 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 12,159
…
42 25 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 6,543
16 26 FOOTLOOSE SOUNDTRACK 6,241
…
37 31 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 5,112
…
17 47 HUNTER HAYES HUNTER HAYES 2,350
…
19 50 WILCO WHOLE LOVE 1,318

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • hoa_teca

    I just tweeted them about this. Hopefully the video will be up for streaming soon.

  • Anonymous

    Exciting week for Kelly!  I will go with 150-200K for her opening week numbers; and she should have strong sales through the holidays.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks a bunch – I hope so too .

    Sorry about the double post – don’t know what happened nor how to delete one when that happens.

  • Mateja Praznik

    According to UK midweek chart update, Kelly’s album is right now #4. Coldplay are absolutely killing the competition, they sold 95K in one day. Kelly’s single is also #4.

    Singles
    1 Professor Green ft. Emeli Sande [67k] – Performed on the X Factor on Sunday
    2 Labrinth ft. Tinie Tempah [53k] – Labrinth is a rapper/producer, signed to Simon Cowell’s label
    3 Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris
    4 Kelly Clarkson – - Performed on the X Factor on Sunday
    5 Charlene Soraia – Wherever You Will Go (really bad cover of The Calling’s song)

    Albums
    1 Coldplay [95k]
    2 Noel Gallagher’s High Flying Birds [being outsold by 4:1; 10k ahead of #3]
    3 Michael Buble (Christmas album)
    4 Kelly Clarkson – X Factor performance
    5 Bruno Mars [sales up 158% week-on-week] – X Factor performance

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I did my part to help out the numbers in Canada. I do try hard to support my Canadian favourites first, but I’m caught up there. So I picked up Kelly’s Deluxe CD, Lauren’s CD, Hailey’s EP, and – er Toby Keith’s new one. (I just totally love his voice, although not all of his songs!) Never bought one of Kelly’s songs before, but hearing her on Dancing with
    the Stars and y’all here have convinced me to try this CD,

    Now playing Lauren (okay, Toby went first) and I’m really liking the overall sound. Actually packing and getting ready to leave for Florida at the moment (son playing in Ultimate Championships and we are going!) so can’t really focus enough to make out the words yet, but I’m impressed thus far! :)

    Oh yeah, the Walmart I went to had lots of Scotty’s CD on the endcap, only about 4 of Lauren’s – in the aisle but at 2nd row level so easy to find, and a bunch of Hailey’s EPs. plus Kelly and Michael; Buble and the other new ones were prominent. Actually Toby was buried compared to Lauren. :)

  • tripp_ncwy

    Anybody mention that the Mediabase Add Board is no longer requiring a password.

    James Durbin’s singles are listed. Last week they received spin(s) 

     ”Love Me Bad” 
    KKOB-FM Pub 1 Top 40 Albuquerque
    WKRZ-FM Pub 3 Top 40 Wilkes-Barre

    “Stand UP”
    WCCC-FM Pub 1 Active Rock Hartford
    WDHA-FM Pub 1 Rock Morristown, NJ
    WTPT-FM Pub 1 Active Rock Greenville, SC

  • Pam

    Yep. Just out of curiosity, I brought up the addbard yesterday morning through my normal Google search just to see what would happen, and when I clicked on the links the search provided, none of them popped up with a username/passowrd prompt.  I was thrilled.  haha

  • Pam

    CHART DATE: 10/24/2011
    LAST UPDATE: 10/25/2011 13:20:12
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist /album label power index % change
    — 1 CASTING CROWNS PROVIDENT111,794–
    COME TO THE WELL
    2 2 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 106,518-2%
    21
    4 3 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 54,875 -37%
    CLEAR AS DAY
    1 4 EVANESCENCE WIND-UP 39,348 -70%
    EVANESCENCE
    6 5 TONY BENNETT COLUMBIA 39,169 -28%
    DUETS II
    9 6 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV REPUBLIC 34,899 -23%
    THA CARTER IV
    8 7 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 34,141 -28%
    OWN THE NIGHT
    — 8 JOEKEDAR ENTERAINMENT 33,298–
    THE GOOD THE BAD THE SEXY
    3 9 FIVE FINGER DEATH PUNCH PROSPECT PARK 28,511 -68%
    AMERICAN CAPITALIST
    5 10 LAUREN ALAINA MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 25,985 -63%
    WILDFLOWER

    16 14 FOOTLOOSE ATLANTIC 20,982 +13%
    SOUNDTRACK

    15 16 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 17,948 -6%
    MY KINDA PARTY

    23 20 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 14,568 -4%
    19

    42 40 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 9,150 -4%
    RED RIVER BLUE

    46 50 MINDLESS BEHAVIOR INTERSCOPE 8,065 -6%
    #1 GIRL

    HDD Sales Chart

  • Kylee

    Good for Scotty and Lauren! I think Lauren’s single will help her sales stabilize. I’m holding out hope that she breaks 100K this week. I remember Scotty saying back during the summer “Hopefully I will do well enough to get a 2nd album.” I think its safe to say he will :) After this week, he will already be passing Kris’s total album sales-this will make him already pass two idol winners total sales. Next stop, Taylor Hicks.

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    Congrats to Scotty and Lauren!  So, if I did my math right and these numbers hold, “only” 161 K left to get to gold for Scotty?:)))

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Yep, Go Scotty!!!!!!!

    And I think Lauren’s will do well.

    They’re both in it for the long haul.

    By the way, Scotty ads are turning up in weird places on the internet. I was finding a link to a YouTube video or Vince Gill’s Rest High on this Mountain and there was a picture of Scotty advertising TTWG.

  • Anonymous

    Nice numbers for Scotty. Not bad for Lauren, although a slightly bigger drop than I was hoping for (I was hoping for 50-60%). No 1-day predictions for Kelly yet?

  • larc

    Actually about 160K.  Total for CAD was 285,034 as of last week’s official count.  If it sold exactly the number HDD reports for last week, that would be 339,909 or 160,091 shy of Gold. Then an average of a little over 32K per week through BF weekend would be enough to push it over. :)

  • Anonymous

    His TTWG video is moving up so fast overnight to #8 on iTune .Will those # of sell help him to get gold too?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

    Unfortunately, only album sales count toward album sales…but hopefully some of those people watching the video will buy the album–and thanks, Larc, for the numbers, crossing my fingers for continued sales:))

  • Pam

    Adds (Monitored)

    Daughtry (11)-CBTY (2 AC, 1 Canada-HAC, 1 Canada-Main AC, 5 HAC, 2 CHR/Pop)

    Lauren (11)-GP (Country)

    Scotty (8)-TTWG (1 Canada-Country, 7 Country)

    Kelly (6)-MKIA (2 Canada-CHR/Pop, 3 AC, 1 CHR/Pop)

    Dave (3)-FIM (HAC)

    Casey J (2)-LDCIAN (Country)

    Daughtry (2) & (1)-Renegade (2 Rock, 1 Active Rock)

    Mandisa f/Toby Mac (1)-Good Morning (Christian AC)

    Addboard

  • Pam

    CHR/Pop (above #50)
    54 55 TYGA Far Away f/Chris Richardson YMCMB/Republic 282 366 -84 0.539
    78 88 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay RED/Broken Bow 48 100 -52 0.265

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