With 55.94% of some nebulous entity reporting in, 4 Idols are in the top 10. First up is Scotty who’s “Clear as Day” is currently sitting at third. Both HDD and BB predict he will comfortably stay there. Drops from second->third week are usually in the 40% range and if last week showed us anything, HDD’s “Now In” percentages mean very little for any individual artist. Scotty should continue to have the number 1 Country Album this week.

Next up is Lauren Alaina who has only dropped one spot to 6th. Her “Wildflower” is on its second week and we normally see 1st to 2nd week drops in the 60-70% range. Last week, she managed to exceed her “weakend” predictions, so the trend may repeat itself this week.

Finally, a couple of duets fill out the Idol top 10 dance card. Kelly’s duet with Jason Aldean is still charting on the mainstream formats and that helps to fuel sales of “My Kinda Party” which is currently at 9th. Right behind that album is Tony Bennett’s “Duet’s II” which features a duet with Carrie Underwood.

The top debut this week will be Casting Crowns “Come to the Well”. The album also tops the chart right now after a big update late yesterday. The album is predicted to battle it out with Adele’s “21″ for top album of the week. Her album sits in second for now. Joe Kedar’s “The Good, the Bad, The Sexy” is debuting and is currently in 4th. Lady Antebellum rounds out the top 5, Lil Wayne is 7th and Evanesence was number 1 last week sits at 8th this week.

The Voice Judges are also doing some charting. Blake Shelton’s latest album, “Red River Blue”, and his “Footloose” cover are currently at 25th and 26th respectively. Adam’s Maroon 5′s “Moves Like Jagger” is topping the pop chart (and recently topped the HAC chart) which is helping to move those units. “Hands All Over” is in 31st position.

We should be getting 1 Day predictions for Kelly’s album today, so hold onto your hats!

CHART DATE: 10/24/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/24/2011 15:42:31
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 CASTING CROWNS COME TO THE WELL 58,248
2 2 ADELE 21 54,255
4 3 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 42,531
– 4 JOE KEDAR THE GOOD THE BAD THE SEXY 21,908
8 5 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 21,556
5 6 LAUREN ALAINA WILDFLOWER 16,971
9 7 LIL WAYNE THA CARTER IV 16,854
1 8 EVANESCENCE EVANESCENCE 16,801
15 9 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 12,329
6 10 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 12,159

42 25 BLAKE SHELTON RED RIVER BLUE 6,543
16 26 FOOTLOOSE SOUNDTRACK 6,241

37 31 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 5,112

17 47 HUNTER HAYES HUNTER HAYES 2,350

19 50 WILCO WHOLE LOVE 1,318

Hits Daily Double

 
  • Pam

    CHR/Pop
    18 16 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 5094 4816 278 25.612
    55 47 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 438 320 118 1.457

    HAC
    6 6 KELLY CLARKSON Mr.Know It All 3572 3497 75 18.133
    14 12 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 2424 2243 181 11.639
    55 49 DAVID COOK Fade Into Me 161 116 45 0.436

    AC (1-35)
    8 8 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 1271 1239 32 8.151
    13 12 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 498 402 96 4.208
    26 22 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 120 90 30 1.234
    25 26 JOSH GRACIN Long Way To Go 98 103 -5 0.133
     
    Country
    38 33 SCOTTY MCCREERY The Trouble With Gir… 762 648 114 4.286
    44 39 CASEY JAMES Let’s Don’t Call It … 479 424 55 1.789

    Mainstream Rock (1-25)
    20 18 DAUGHTRY Renegade 79 56 23 0.275

    Urban AC
    12 11 JENNIFER HUDSON No One Gonna Love Yo… 909 981 -72 5.839

    Rhythmic
    28 36 TYGA Far Away f/Chris Ric… 905 1227 -322 6.606

    Christian AC
    18 18 MANDISA Waiting For Tomorrow 505 489 16 2.174

    Canada-CHR/Pop
    34 31 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 329 358 -29 1.992

    Canada-HAC
    4 5 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 719 739 -20 4.175
    41 32 DAUGHTRY Crawling Back To You 202 160 42 1.265

    Canada-Main AC
    7 6 KELLY CLARKSON Mr. Know It All 277 252 25 1.938

    Canada-Country
    49 45 SCOTTY MCCREERY The Trouble With Gir… 99 84 15 0.226

  • Pam

    i-tunes

    Singles
    22. What Doesn’t Kill You (Stronger) – Kelly Clarkson (Deluxe version)
    28. Mr. Know It All – Kelly Clarkson (Single)
    70. Remind Me (Duet with Carrie Underwood) – Brad Paisley
    109. The Trouble With Girls – Scotty McCreery
    166. Don’t You Wanna Stay (with Kelly Clarkson) – Jason Aldean
    181. I Love You This Big – Scotty McCreery
    186. Mr. Know It All – Kelly Clarkson
    189. Dark Side – Kelly Clarkson
    210. Like My Mother Does – Lauren Alaina
    214. Far Away (feat. Chris Richardson) – Tyga
    217. The Sun Will Rise – Kelly Clarkson
    243. Let Me Down – Kelly Clarkson
    260. Tough – Kellie Pickler
    266. Standing In Front of You – Kelly Clarkson
    279. Crawling Back to You – Daughtry
    284. Don’t You Wanna Stay (With Kelly Clarkson) – Jason Aldean (Album)
    308. Breaking Your Own Heart – Kelly Clarkson
    324. You Love Me – Kelly Clarkson
    377. I Forgive You – Kelly Clarkson
    379. Don’t Be a Girl About It – Kelly Clarkson
    402. The War Is Over – Kelly Clarkson
    458. Honestly – Kelly Clarkson
    459. What Doesn’t Kill You (Stronger) – Kelly Clarkson
    492. Just a Dream – Carrie Underwood
    566. Better In Time – Leona Lewis
    577. Hello – Kelly Clarkson
    599. Before He Cheats – Carrie Underwood
    668. Already Gone – Kelly Clarkson
    694. Breakaway – Kelly Clarkson
    733. Since U Been Gone – Kelly Clarkson
    773. Einstein – Kelly Clarkson
    813. My Life Would Suck Without You – Kelly Clarkson
    838. Fix You (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    873. Undo It – Carrie Underwood
    933. How Great Thou Art – Carrie Underwood
    997. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
    1003. Because of You – Kelly Clarkson
    1021. Stronger – Mandisa

    Albums
    3. Stronger (Deluxe Version) – Kelly Clarkson
    11. Stronger – Kelly Clarkson
    35. Clear As Day – Scotty McCreery
    49. Wildflower – Lauren Alaina
    81. The Sing-Off: Season 3: Episode 6 – Hip Hop – Various Artists
    181. Breakaway – Kelly Clarkson
    289. The Sing-Off: Season 3, Episode 5 – Guilty Pleasures – Various Artists
    304. Daughtry – Daughtry
    507. Thankful – Kelly Clarkson
    551. Dream With Me – Jackie Evancho
    627. Glee: The Music – The Christmas Album – Glee Cast
    708. The Sing-Off: Season 3, Episode 4 – Current Hits & 60′s Favorites – Various Artists
    713. Play On – Carrie Underwood
    724. Glee: The Music Presents The Warblers – Glee Cast
    779. Glee: The Music, Vol. 6 – Glee Cast
    795. What If We Were Real – Mandisa
    808. The Sing-Off – Season 3: Episode 3 – Current Hits & ’60s Favorites – Various Artists
    817. Glee: The Music, Vol. 5 – Glee Cast
    822. Leave This Town – Daughtry
    883. Some Hearts – Carrie Underwood
    936. Glee: The Music, Vol. 1 – Glee Cast
    996. Hold On ‘Til the Night – Greyson Chance

  • Pam

    Mediabase:
    KELLY CLARKSON – Mr. Know It All: 50.602 (+ 0.358)

  • windmills

    Reporting from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There was an extra recurrent at Billboard because Joe Nichols got yanked off. Scotty had a pretty good week at Billboard to move up to #33, gaining just over a million AIs and he actually very slightly outgained Billy and Jake who are lined up right behind him. He may be able to hold them off this week after all but I think they’ll pass him eventually. There’s also a small chance of Scotty catching James Wesley’s Didn’t I this week if Didn’t I starts falling a little bit and TTWG can keep up the pace from

    CaseyJ gained 94k at Billboard to move up to #38. He barely held off Chris Cagle by 5k. That one could go either way this week. Lee Brice is moving up fast and is a threat to pass and Keith Urban will pass this week too. Keith should offset himself since Long Hot Summer will go recurrent on Billboard. I would say CaseyJ needs to pick up the pace a little bit and make sure LDCIAN doesn’t fall out of the t40. But, I think his label realizes this (see below). And, I don’t think falling out of t40 Billboard is too likely. But it’ll be a little dicier on Mediabase because Toby Keith and Keith Urban are likely to pass. LDCIAN should be OK there too as long as it keeps gaining.

    Lauren got 11 Mediabase/Country Aircheck adds which people already knew. On the Billboard panel she got 6 adds. Georgia Peaches is up to 226k AIs on 7 stations at Billboard. It will debut on the Billboard chart next week (#60 this week has 327k AIs). 

    Idol-related ads: Another half page ad for CaseyJ, new testimonial from WDSY Pittsburgh MD Stoney Richards about Casey’s interview appeal & both the MD and his listeners believing LDCIAN is a hit song. Also a half page ad for Lauren citing her 1st week sales stats and saying her new single Georgia Peaches is going for adds now.

  • Buffynut

    Today we’ll get predictions for Kelly also, right?

  • Pam

    I think the one day sales estimates for her should be coming from HDD sometime tomorrow.

  • http://twitter.com/dy7764 dy77

    As of this am, Kelly’s album was still on sale at Amazon for 4.99 (It was their mp3 special yesterday).

  • Kirsten

    When we get major album releases on Monday, we usually see one day estimates from HDD on Tuesday. Hopefully, that is true this week as well.

  • Pam

    Mediabase cont.
    DAUGHTRY -Crawling Back To You= 15.008 (+0.542)
    SCOTTY MCCREERY -The Trouble With Girls= 5.094 (+0.244)
    DAVID COOK -Fade Into Me= 0.476 (+0.047)

  • Kirsten

    WooHoo!

    Daughtry crossing the 15M mark and Scotty crossing the 5M!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

    Ditto yay!!

  • Anonymous

    Anyone have any guesses on what the HDD prediction for Kelly’s album will look like? I will say she’ll be the #2 album, behind Coldplay, with estimate of more than 100K. Let’s go with 125-150K.

  • Pam

    Oh ok.  I didn’t realize that.  Thanks

  • Blower

    Thank you so much windmills for the information :D

    Lauren got 11 Mediabase/Country Aircheck adds which people already
    knew. On the Billboard panel she got 6 adds. Georgia Peaches is up to
    226k AIs on 7 stations at Billboard. It will debut on the Billboard
    chart next week (#60 this week has 327k AIs).

    Is it a good start for Lauren or not? sorry i’m so clueless with this thing :)

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HDFBWEFJRU3YZDSYNGBBFY3JSQ Adolf Hipster

    She debuted with 255k in 2009 and that was Q1.

  • windmills

    It’s fine for starters. I admit I expected a little more of a 1st week push but what I forgot was there’s a bunch of big ticket male names with new songs hogging up a lot of the adds. Considering that Lauren did well and now that most of the panel’s added those other guys Mercury Nashville can keep a consistent push for GP going. Having the ad this week is a sign they want a good 2nd week of adds.

  • windmills

    I’m feeling optimistic about 200k 1st week. But more importantly I feel very confident this will be a big holiday season pick for shoppers and I expect very, very strong sales the rest of the year that’ll all but guarantee total sales over a million.

  • Anonymous

    oops double post

  • Anonymous

    200K sems a little high to me, but I hope you’re right. I bought the deluxe version of Kelly’s album and I really like it.

  • Elliegrll

    I think that she’s still pretty popular, but not as popular as she was a few years ago, so I don’t think she’s going to hit the 200K mark.

  • Long Kiss Goodnight

    My guess would be something around 175k.

  • Anonymous

    Can anyone tell me why TTWG is not available on CMT or GAC for viewing or when it might be available (I have no idea about these kind of things).  It is up for voting on both Top 20 and Pure 12 pack but it doesn’t show up anywhere for viewing.

  • Anonymous

    Can anyone tell me why TTWG is not available on CMT or GAC for viewing or when it might be available (I have no idea about these kind of things).  It is up for voting on both Top 20 and Pure 12 pack but it doesn’t show up anywhere for viewing.

  • Anonymous

    Excellent analysis, windmills, as usual. 

  • ptebwwong

    I think Kelly will have 1st week sales of 150K-200K. I don’t think she has huge sales anymore, but she should be definitely over 100K. I think if Mr. Know It All was a bigger 1st single or she had a 2nd single out her sales would have been over 200K.

  • hoa_teca

    I just tweeted them about this. Hopefully the video will be up for streaming soon.

  • Anonymous

    Exciting week for Kelly!  I will go with 150-200K for her opening week numbers; and she should have strong sales through the holidays.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks a bunch – I hope so too .

    Sorry about the double post – don’t know what happened nor how to delete one when that happens.

  • Mateja Praznik

    According to UK midweek chart update, Kelly’s album is right now #4. Coldplay are absolutely killing the competition, they sold 95K in one day. Kelly’s single is also #4.

    Singles
    1 Professor Green ft. Emeli Sande [67k] – Performed on the X Factor on Sunday
    2 Labrinth ft. Tinie Tempah [53k] – Labrinth is a rapper/producer, signed to Simon Cowell’s label
    3 Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris
    4 Kelly Clarkson – - Performed on the X Factor on Sunday
    5 Charlene Soraia – Wherever You Will Go (really bad cover of The Calling’s song)

    Albums
    1 Coldplay [95k]
    2 Noel Gallagher’s High Flying Birds [being outsold by 4:1; 10k ahead of #3]
    3 Michael Buble (Christmas album)
    4 Kelly Clarkson – X Factor performance
    5 Bruno Mars [sales up 158% week-on-week] – X Factor performance

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I did my part to help out the numbers in Canada. I do try hard to support my Canadian favourites first, but I’m caught up there. So I picked up Kelly’s Deluxe CD, Lauren’s CD, Hailey’s EP, and – er Toby Keith’s new one. (I just totally love his voice, although not all of his songs!) Never bought one of Kelly’s songs before, but hearing her on Dancing with
    the Stars and y’all here have convinced me to try this CD,

    Now playing Lauren (okay, Toby went first) and I’m really liking the overall sound. Actually packing and getting ready to leave for Florida at the moment (son playing in Ultimate Championships and we are going!) so can’t really focus enough to make out the words yet, but I’m impressed thus far! :)

    Oh yeah, the Walmart I went to had lots of Scotty’s CD on the endcap, only about 4 of Lauren’s – in the aisle but at 2nd row level so easy to find, and a bunch of Hailey’s EPs. plus Kelly and Michael; Buble and the other new ones were prominent. Actually Toby was buried compared to Lauren. :)

  • tripp_ncwy

    Anybody mention that the Mediabase Add Board is no longer requiring a password.

    James Durbin’s singles are listed. Last week they received spin(s) 

     “Love Me Bad” 
    KKOB-FM Pub 1 Top 40 Albuquerque
    WKRZ-FM Pub 3 Top 40 Wilkes-Barre

    “Stand UP”
    WCCC-FM Pub 1 Active Rock Hartford
    WDHA-FM Pub 1 Rock Morristown, NJ
    WTPT-FM Pub 1 Active Rock Greenville, SC

  • Pam

    Yep. Just out of curiosity, I brought up the addbard yesterday morning through my normal Google search just to see what would happen, and when I clicked on the links the search provided, none of them popped up with a username/passowrd prompt.  I was thrilled.  haha

  • Pam

    CHART DATE: 10/24/2011
    LAST UPDATE: 10/25/2011 13:20:12
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist /album label power index % change
    — 1 CASTING CROWNS PROVIDENT111,794–
    COME TO THE WELL
    2 2 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 106,518-2%
    21
    4 3 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 54,875 -37%
    CLEAR AS DAY

    1 4 EVANESCENCE WIND-UP 39,348 -70%
    EVANESCENCE
    6 5 TONY BENNETT COLUMBIA 39,169 -28%
    DUETS II
    9 6 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV REPUBLIC 34,899 -23%
    THA CARTER IV
    8 7 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 34,141 -28%
    OWN THE NIGHT
    — 8 JOEKEDAR ENTERAINMENT 33,298–
    THE GOOD THE BAD THE SEXY
    3 9 FIVE FINGER DEATH PUNCH PROSPECT PARK 28,511 -68%
    AMERICAN CAPITALIST
    5 10 LAUREN ALAINA MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 25,985 -63%
    WILDFLOWER

    16 14 FOOTLOOSE ATLANTIC 20,982 +13%
    SOUNDTRACK

    15 16 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 17,948 -6%
    MY KINDA PARTY

    23 20 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 14,568 -4%
    19

    42 40 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 9,150 -4%
    RED RIVER BLUE

    46 50 MINDLESS BEHAVIOR INTERSCOPE 8,065 -6%
    #1 GIRL

    HDD Sales Chart

  • Kylee

    Good for Scotty and Lauren! I think Lauren’s single will help her sales stabilize. I’m holding out hope that she breaks 100K this week. I remember Scotty saying back during the summer “Hopefully I will do well enough to get a 2nd album.” I think its safe to say he will :) After this week, he will already be passing Kris’s total album sales-this will make him already pass two idol winners total sales. Next stop, Taylor Hicks.

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    Congrats to Scotty and Lauren!  So, if I did my math right and these numbers hold, “only” 161 K left to get to gold for Scotty?:)))

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Yep, Go Scotty!!!!!!!

    And I think Lauren’s will do well.

    They’re both in it for the long haul.

    By the way, Scotty ads are turning up in weird places on the internet. I was finding a link to a YouTube video or Vince Gill’s Rest High on this Mountain and there was a picture of Scotty advertising TTWG.

  • Anonymous

    Nice numbers for Scotty. Not bad for Lauren, although a slightly bigger drop than I was hoping for (I was hoping for 50-60%). No 1-day predictions for Kelly yet?

  • larc

    Actually about 160K.  Total for CAD was 285,034 as of last week’s official count.  If it sold exactly the number HDD reports for last week, that would be 339,909 or 160,091 shy of Gold. Then an average of a little over 32K per week through BF weekend would be enough to push it over. :)

  • Anonymous

    His TTWG video is moving up so fast overnight to #8 on iTune .Will those # of sell help him to get gold too?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

    Unfortunately, only album sales count toward album sales…but hopefully some of those people watching the video will buy the album–and thanks, Larc, for the numbers, crossing my fingers for continued sales:))

  • Pam

    Adds (Monitored)

    Daughtry (11)-CBTY (2 AC, 1 Canada-HAC, 1 Canada-Main AC, 5 HAC, 2 CHR/Pop)

    Lauren (11)-GP (Country)

    Scotty (8)-TTWG (1 Canada-Country, 7 Country)

    Kelly (6)-MKIA (2 Canada-CHR/Pop, 3 AC, 1 CHR/Pop)

    Dave (3)-FIM (HAC)

    Casey J (2)-LDCIAN (Country)

    Daughtry (2) & (1)-Renegade (2 Rock, 1 Active Rock)

    Mandisa f/Toby Mac (1)-Good Morning (Christian AC)

    Addboard

  • Pam

    CHR/Pop (above #50)
    54 55 TYGA Far Away f/Chris Richardson YMCMB/Republic 282 366 -84 0.539
    78 88 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay RED/Broken Bow 48 100 -52 0.265