HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Oct 15-21

By On 10/23/2012 · 40 Comments · In American Idol, Charts

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With 51.99% of reports in, Jason Aldean is off to a convincing lead proving that fans are forgiving of their male stars’ indiscretions. A Janice Aldean might not have had to do more penance. “Night Train” is Jason’s 5th studio album and his first album after his massive break-out album “My Kinda Party” which is coincidentally at 50th (so he currently holds the first and last position on the HDD charts). That album, of course, featured a very popular duet with Kelly Clarkson that crossed over onto mainstream.

Brandy is back and is set to debut now in second. Mumford and Sons, who have led the chart for the last 3 weeks are dropping to 3rd. P!nk is 4th, R&B artist Miguel is 6th, rockers Anberlin are debuting in 7th, rappers Macklemore & Ryan Lewis are 8th, the Pitch Perfect Soundtrack is 9th and Country artist Jamey Johnson is 10th.

The top reality show contestant this week is Scotty McCreery who is debuting in 5th right now with his new Christmas albums. Christmas albums don’t usually start moving until around Black Friday (and then have their best weeks up until Christmas). Next up is UK XF’s One Direction at 20th and AGT’s Jackie Evancho at 31st. One spot behind her is the NOW 43 compilation album featuring Carly Rae Jepsen, One Direction, Cher Lloyd, XF US judge Demi Lovato and Voice judge Adam Levine. Carrie Underwood’s “Blown Away” is 35th.

Battling out for probably the same market space are Canadian Idol’s Carly Rae Jepsen and UK XF’s Cher Lloyd. They are neck-and-neck this week at 37th and 38th respectively.

Finally, representing the Voice is judge Adam Levine and his band Maroon 5. “Overexposed” is sitting at 14th just as their American tour dates are being announced. Strangely, the article states “The band will debut the song on NBC’s The Voice, where lead singer Adam Levine is a mentor/coach, Nov. 8. Levine plans to return to the show next fall, when Christina Aguilera and Cee-Lo Green will temporarily be replaced by Usher and Shakira.” I thought the show was coming back in the Spring, but there are a lot of Monday/Tuesday nights in that tour (of course, it isn’t very late into the season before the handful of live shows start so that is probably fine and HDD is just confused).

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 JASON ALDEAN NIGHT TRAIN 184,527
– 2 BRANDY TWO ELEVEN 62,252
1 3 MUMFORD & SONS BABEL 51,211
6 4 P!NK TRUTH ABOUT LOVE 17,254
– 5 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 14,686
11 6 MIGUEL KALEIDOSCOPE DREAM 13,237
– 7 ANBERLIN VITAL 12,017
2 8 MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS HEIST 11,479
12 9 PITCH PERFECT SOUNDTRACK 11,325
– 10 JAMEY JOHNSON LIVIN’ FOR A SONG: HANK COCHRAN 11,215
…
17 14 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 10,130
…
20 20 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 6,035
…
14 31 JACKIE EVANCHO SONGS FROM THE SILVER SCREEN 3,660
26 32 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 43 VARIOUS ARTISTS 3,640
…
33 35 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 3,069
…
43 37 CARLY RAE JEPSEN KISS 2,092
36 38 CHER LLOYD STICKS & STONES 2,080
…
– 50 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 1,335

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • ptebwwong

    The HDD predictions were mostly “on the money” this week. 

  • fantoo1

    Well Justin and Michael are both one of the biggest stars in the world. Them selling that much so early is basically a given. Scotty’s numbers are great for a fairly new country artist. Especially when you weigh in the fact that Blake Shelton, a more established and well known country artist only sold 9K his first week.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Huh? That wasn’t a comparison, it was a comment on how Christmas albums can be released at this time of year and sell well their first week. It’s not an unusual occurance.

    Less than a year ago, Scotty sold around 200K the first week for his debut album. I would expect him to be able to still sell albums a year later, even if it is for a Christmas album.

  • tibitibis

    Wow ! Jason Aldean …that are BIG numbers :o …..and i think Scotty sales are good , he’s not Justin B a and neither Bublé, they’re Big in the market and their sales strategies are a lot more elaborated , so i convinced that Scotty numbers are a very good start for this early Holidays Season debut in a country market , the marketing time is just starting for him and his Christmas album. ;)

  • http://www.facebook.com/dawn.p.joblon Dawn Perretti Joblon

    Well Blake is on a very popular TV show and has national exposure to millions every single week, which honestly I’m surprised didn’t help him. Scotty won Idol two years ago, Blake is on TV every week for the last two years. And honestly not sure how you can even compare a Christmas Album to a Regular Album?  I’m sure there are many people that buy country albums that may not even celebrate Christmas. Bieber Christmas sales are very atypical because every single little girl on the planet buys his stuff. Buble sold around 140,000 his first week out not 210k.  Buble appeals to the masses, we all know Scotty is country thru and thru which some people don’t like the sound of, so when he can sell a Christmas Album to start out 40K in sales I think that pretty freaking good. 

  • flactyguy

    I’m sure that Mercury/Interscope are beyond pleased with 40,000 in sales. Plus, they can re-release it every year for more bucks. Funny how Christmas albums work that way…..timeless!
     

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Once again, was not comparing Scotty to Bieber or Buble. The point was they all released about the same time and had decent to great numbers their debut week. Obviously, Buble went on to blow the roof off of the holiday charts. Therefore, Christmas albums can and do end up doing well when released at this time of the year.

    Still don’t know what Blake and Scotty have to do with each other other than both being in Country.

  • springboard2

    Adam’s iTunes charting as a reply to this post:
    http://www.mjsbigblog.com/idol-headlines-for-102312-the-evening-edition.htm#comment-690730417

    Just read a comment at Youtube Trespassing (official  Video) that TSP
    and Cuckoo is  rising at Itunes.  Another commenter wrote that PLL
    brought him there.  I hope PLL gives Adam a good boost in sales and
    added fans. 
    I am now watching Queen+AL – particularly “Who wants to
    live forever”. The song always gives me goosebumps. cos2mwz has the
    best videos -clear and the sound is great.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
    I
    hope somebody keep track of Itunes.    It is delayed a few days where I
    am.  Thanks for keeping an update on PLL.  I do not watch TV.  I hope
    for  another episode for Adam.

    Singles:
    239. Whataya Want from Me – Adam Lambert
    254. Cuckoo – Adam Lambert
    734. Trespassing – Adam Lambert

    Albums:
    405. Trespassing (Deluxe Version) – Adam Lambert
    645. Trespassing (Remixes) – Adam Lambert

  • lovetheusa1776

    In Pop – Cuckoo is 63, WWFM is 62, TR is 165, and the EP is 96.

  • p2fan

     I appreciate the prompt reply.  The remix album went down from 611 to 645 while the Deluxe version went up from 846 to 405.  This is encouraging news because most likely most of those who bought the Deluxe version are new fans.  Glamberts are  encouraged to buy the remix version.  TSP and cuckoo just charted again, and if they keeps rising, PLL gets the credit for the bump.  As for WWFM, perhaps the song choice in “The Voice” was a big factor?

  • lovetheusa1776

    Good to see these numbers.

  • scm101

    Yes, indeed ! Scotty fan forever….

  • http://twitter.com/Scottyasia Scottyasia

    For your information, Country Xmas Albums didn’t sell well at all compare to other genre. You can see how many Xmas Cd sold in total for the big names such as Lady A or even Taylor S two years ago.
    So don’t bring up JB or Micheal Buble to compare with someone from Country like Scotty. Judging from the numbers of Lady A and Taylor S, Scotty’s xmas Cd is doing GREAT on its opening week.

    If you truly want to point out how poor is Scotty’s sale nowaday, you could wait until Lady A puts out their Xmas CD on next week. If they could sell more than Scotty in the 1st week, then I guess that is the right time for you to feel happier.

     2010 TOP TEN SEASONAL ALBUMS
    1. Susan Boyle . . . 1,852,000
    2 Jackie Evancho . . . . 1,010,000
    3 Glee Cast . . . 917,000
    4 Mariah Carey . . . 432,000
    5 Andrea Bocelli. . . . . .371,000
    6 Josh Groban. . . . . . .261,000
    7 Lady Antebellum. . . . 253,000
    8 Now Christmas 4/ Various. . . . 240,000
    9 Taylor Swift. . . .209,000
    10 Annie Lennox . . . . 178,000

    2011 TOP TEN SEASONAL ALBUMS
    1 Christmas/ Michael Buble . . . . . . . . . .2,452,000
    2 Under The Mistletoe/ Justin Bieber. . . .1,245,000
    3 Heavenly Christmas/ Jackie Evancho . . 310,000
    4 Glee: The Music, The Christmas/ Glee Cast . . 306,000
    5 Very She & Him Christmas/ She & Him . . . . . 288,000
    6 My Christmas/ Andrea Bocelli . . . 247,000
    7 The Gift/ Susan Boyle . . . 233,000
    8 Christmas Symph./ Mannheim Steamroller . . . 184,000
    9 Noel/ Josh Groban . . . 178,000
    10 Charlie Brown Christmas/ Vince Guaraldi . . . 170,000

  • marmom07

    Great to see Adam getting bumps for his TV appearance. Awesome promo for him. It says to me his music will sell if it gets heard. I just hate how radio will play ANYTHING from certain “established” artists but won’t test drive new music. For new/newish artists it has to be HEARD for people to want to request it.  Radio uses the excuse it’s not being requested to not play it. It’s a viscous cycle. It’s a generalization but younger listeners (such as the PLL demographic) may be more inclined to buy music than perhaps viewers of some of the talk shows that have musical guests. I read elsewhere that TV is really the way to get new music heard.

  • Jordon Brook

    Best song on airwaves today bar none is the one Airborne Ranger Infantry by Kristy Lee Cook.  What a great ballad.  I am stunned it has not hit the top charts as of yet.  Great Job on this one.  Having lost a vet, this song means sooo much.

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