HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov-26-Dec-2

With 55.94% of reports in, Alicia Keys is on her way to her third album (out of 5) that debuts at the top of the BB200. Just like Jack Frost, nipping at her heels is the biggest Christmas album of the season from Rod Stewart. There are 4 Christmas albums in the top 10 including the Christmas album of the season last year from Michael Buble (and people wonder why artists put out these Christmas albums full of covers. Rod probably croaked out his songs in a day or two and he’s going to make major coin this season and be revived for the next 3 or so. Nice work if you can get it). Lady Antebellum (whose female member famously did not make it on Idol) and Voice Judge Blake Shelton have Christmas albums at 9 and 10.

Taylor Swift continues to sell strongly at 3 (how many stockings will contain her CD this year?) while One Direction are defying pundits and not having a total collapse in sales after their big first week are at 5 (how many stockings will contain Taylor and 1Ds CD this year?). One Direction, from the 7 season of the UK X-Factor also have their previous album (released earlier in 2012) on the chart. “Up All Night” is up at 24.

Our latest Idol winner Phil Phillips is currently in 6th for his first week demonstrating a remarkable drop in his second week. Typically, drops from first to second week are in the 60-70% range, but one expects slightly higher drops when moving out of a Black Friday week. Last week he sold 172K according to HDD (SS reports 169K, but we need to compare numbers from the same source assuming the same bias is in place) and was predicted to sell 80-85K on Friday. That represents a drop of 50-53%. It helps that the ever-popular “Home” appears to be peaking (or approaching the peak) on radio at just the right moment. I know they had a bit of luck and some hate giving credit to the label for anything, but the label appears to have done everything right this time. A nice change of pace.

Right behind Phil is last week’s number one artist, Rihanna. Looks like if any fans stuffed the ballot box and front loaded sales, it was hers (Phil, 1D and Taylor fans all got those accusations – but even her drop is in the 70% range). Now 44 is at 8 (features American Idol Kelly Clarkson, Canadian Idol Carly Rae Jepsen, Voice Judge Adam Levine and new American Idol judge Nicki Minaj).

Scotty McCreery, last year’s Idol winner is at 13 with his contribution to the Christmas rush, “Christmas with Scotty”. The original Country winner from season 4 is Carrie Underwood and her “Blown Away” album continues to sell well at 38th. Kelly Clarkson, winner from season 1 has her Greatest Hits album selling at 34th. Susan Boyle, runner-up from BGT, is at 37th with her fourth studio album.

Rounding up the judges: Adam Levine’s Maroon 5 from the Voice (staying steady) at 28, Christina from the Voice (fading fast) at 37th and Nicki Minaj re-release dropping as expected at 47th.

CHART DATE: 12/03/2012
LAST UPDATE: 12/03/2012 14:06:04
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index

– 1 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 82,148
6 2 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 75,224
2 3 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 60,190
19 4 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 54,960
4 5 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 48,982
3 6 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 36,273
1 7 RIHANNA UNAPOLOGETIC 34,188
15 8 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 34,078
18 9 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT 32,954
16 10 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS 29,177

20 13 SCOTTY MCCREERY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 21,368

23 28 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 7,310
29 24 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 8,277

12 30 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 6,098

11 34 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 4,874

17 36 CHRISTINA AGUILERA LOTUS 4,415
34 37 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 4,359

28 47 NICKI MINAJ PINK FRIDAY: ROMAN RELOADED 3,215

– 50 MIGUEL KALEIDOSCOPE DREAM 2,747

FINAL

- 1 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 161,038
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 135,682 -25%
6 3 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 119,918 +4%
4 4 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 87,738 -47%
3 5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 78,873 -54%
1 6 RIHANNA UNAPOLOGETIC 72,356 -70%
19 7 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 65,230 +24%
18 8 LADY ANTEBELLUM ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT NASHVILLE 55,294 +3%
16 9 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS NASHVILLE 48,648 -12%
15 10 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 42,715 -33%

20 12 SCOTTY MCCREERY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 40,518 -20%

12 20 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 26,267 -63%

11 22 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 25,420 -66%

34 25 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 23,923 -14%

23 27 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 22,647 -49%

– 30 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, SEASON 4, V1 21,450 –

24 31 TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN 2  21,286 -50%

29 33 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 20,407 -40%

– 35 CEE LO GREEN CEE LO’S MAGIC MOMENT 18,390 –

17 41 CHRISTINA AGUILERA LOTUS 14,415 -73%

– 50 VINCE GUARALDI FANTASY 12,890 –

Hits Daily Double

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “6 2 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 75,224

    …….

    19 4 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 54,960″

    Looks like Rod Stewart’s Christmas album is going to be this year’s biggest selling seasonal album, and Buble’s Christmas album is having great sales for its second year. David Foster really knows how to EP and promote these kind of albums.

  • springboard2

    Mediabase:

    AAA:
    1 1 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 649 661 -12 2.455
    -4 Spins
    -1 Bullet
    -0.045 AI
    Alt:
    41 40 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 213 162 51 0.959
    +9 Spins
    +13 Bullet
    +0.071 AI
    Country:
    21 23 CASEY JAMES Crying On A Suitcase 2376 2391 -15 18.079
    +36 Spins
    +64 Bullet
    +0.11 AI
    36 28 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Two Black Cadillacs 1618 621 997 10.762
    +166 Spins
    +107 Bullet
    +0.996 AI
    37 39 LAUREN ALAINA Eighteen Inches 640 732 -92 3.541
    -17 Spins
    -3 Bullet
    -0.071 AI
    45 45 KELLY CLARKSON Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill 462 425 37 2.359
    +24 Spins
    +35 Bullet
    +0.085 AI
    HAC:
    2 2 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 4410 4588 -178 32.265
    -14 Spins
    +11 Bullet
    -0.174 AI
    18 15 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 2103 1989 114 15.794
    +17 Spins
    +5 Bullet
    +0.133 AI
    37 35 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Blown Away 447 399 48 2.351
    +8 Spins
    +3 Bullet
    +0.005 AI
    POP:
    12 10 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 7202 6791 411 49.735
    +137 Spins
    +54 Bullet
    +0.451 AI
    24 22 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 2899 2502 397 17.078
    +61 Spins
    +19 Bullet
    +0.524 AI
    30 29 CHER LLOYD Oath f/Becky G 2086 1957 129 10.532
    -3 Spins
    -60 Bullet
    -0.168 AI
    38 32 ONE DIRECTION Little Things 1856 1169 687 12.983
    +92 Spins
    -21 Bullet
    +0.198 AI
    29 36 ONE DIRECTION Live While We’re Young 1565 2115 -550 8.622
    -54 Spins
    +46 Bullet
    -0.279 AI
    39 42 CARLY RAE JEPSEN This Kiss 927 1149 -222 4.442
    -42 Spins
    -54 Bullet
    -0.229 AI

  • windmills

    Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck: 

    There was 1 Billboard recurrent (Jon Pardi) and 2 Mediabase recurrents on the edges of t40 (Kelleigh Bannen and Lost Trailers). This week there will be at least 2 Billboard recurrents out of the t10 (Rascal Flatts and Miranda Lambert), and possibly Casey James and in all likelihood Lauren Alaina. At MB/Aircheck there will be 4 recurrents (Luke Bryan, Miranda Lambert, Jon Pardi, and Rodney Atkins). 

    Casey James’s Crying On A Suitcase lost 127k AIs and dropped 2 spots to #24 Billboard because Tim McGraw and Hunter Hayes both passed. COAS is in its 25th week so it’s at risk of going recurrent. Will it? It had a pretty good Mediabase update this morning so, stay tuned. Based on last week’s trend, Kacey Musgraves could pass: she’s 596k behind and outgained COAS by 802k. Carrie would also pass with another week like last one. But, because of recurrents that means at worst COAS would hold at #24 if it stayed on the chart. If COAS holds off Carrie’s Two Black Cadillacs then it would actually move up to #23 if it stayed on the chart. There isn’t another song likely to pass anytime soon so maybe COAS will hang on until next year and the label will try to get it back into the t20. Right now I’d say that isn’t going to happen but, you never know. 

    At MB/Aircheck COAS lost 134 points and dropped a spot to #22 because Thomas Rhett passed. Thomas Rhett leads by 225 points. Tim McGraw was 301 points behind as of Sunday and has passed since then. Hunter Hayes was 203 points behind as of last Sunday and passed yesterday but CaseyJ’s good update today enabled COAS to repass. Hunter’s Somebody’s Heartbreak will eventually come out ahead but, it’ll be interesting seeing of COAS keeps up the fight to stay alive. If it doesn’t rebullet this week, that would be its 2nd consecutive bulletless week which would mean COAS would go recurrent at MB next Sunday with another bulletless week.

    Carrie’s Two Black Cadillacs had a very strong week as Billboard’s Greatest Gainer, gaining 3.454 million AI and moving up 5 spots to #27. It will pass Chris Cagle’s Let There Be Cowgirls this week and there will definitely be 2 recurrents so it will definitely move up to #24. Kacey Musgraves and Casey James are 2.702 million and 3.298 million AIs ahead of 2BC respectively. With another week like last week 2BC can pass both songs (with CaseyJ could going recurrent) and end the week at #22. But, I think 2BC will just miss out on passing one of them (probably Kacey) and end the week at #23. 

    At MB/Aircheck, Carrie was the top points gainer with 2233 points gained as it moved from #37 to #30. Since Sunday 2BC has passed the singles by Faith Hill (who was 11 points ahead) and Eli Young Band (who was 502 points ahead). Chris Cagle was 1366 points ahead as of last Sunday (after a 276 point gain) so Carrie should pass him by the end of the week. I see 2BC ending the week at #26 Mediabase. 

    Lauren’s Eighteen Inches lost 384k AI and dropped a spot to #37 Billboard. This time I really do think the song is done and that it’ll go recurrent on this week’s chart. At MB/Aircheck 18I lost 277 points and dropped 4 spots to #39. It will go recurrent at MB next Sunday. 

    Kelly’s Don’t Rush kept its bullet despite a flat week where it lost 19k and held at #40. Jana Kramer passed but leads by only 15k. Brantley Gilbert extended his lead to 326k AIs. Hayden Panettiere dropped below DR with a 272k loss and now trails by 73k, and Craig Morgan also lost 202k to trail now by 316k. With 3 or 4 songs going recurrent, DR could move up to #36, maybe #35 if it repasses Jana without getting passed by Blake and Miranda’s version of Jingle Bell Rock. If DR doesn’t repass Jana’s Whiskey and Blake/Miranda pass then it’ll end up either at #37 or #38. 

    At MB/Aircheck DR gained 10 points and kepts its bullet, but dropped to #45. Jana Kramer and Jerrod Niemann at #44 and #43 were 59 and 65 points ahead respectively and Craig Morgan at #43 is 96 points ahead. However Montgomery Gentry is threatening from behind and trailed by only 23 points as of last Sunday after gaining 219 points while The FARM trailed by 95 points after gaining 139 points. The good news is Don’t Rush has finally started to have consecutive positive MB updates. It’s tight in that part of the chart. DR has a chance to make MB/Aircheck t40 in its 6th week: it needs to pass one song ahead of it and stay ahead of Montgomery Gentry this week. Even if it doesn’t make MBt40 this week, there are another couple of recurrents coming up that should take care of it. 

    Idol-related ads: None 

    Chart notes: Mumford & Sons’s I Will Wait charted at #58 on Billboard Country Airplay. In its infinite and arbitrary wisdom Billboard hasn’t been letting that song chart on Billboard Country Songs. Will that change this week? Stay tuned. 

    Taylor Swift’s Begin Again has been struggling lately outside the t10 (it’s at #14 Billboard and MB/Aircheck). Big Machine took out full page updates in Billboard Country Update and Aircheck last week begging radio to “convert” it into t10 rotation. That didn’t happen though Begin Again did regain its bullet and make some small gains. It is gaining on a more consistent basis the last couple of days and will benefit from 4 recurrents out of the t10 in the next 2 weeks but, it’s going to get passed by Gary Allan, Jason Aldean, and The Band Perry soon. I still don’t expect it to miss out on the t10 but the fact that it’s struggling at all is noteworthy. 

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    I had a chance to look at the Billboard update and thought it was great that there was a big article about Blake’s, LA’s, and Scotty’s Christmas albums with quotes from all three.  Plus, a picture from Scotty’s Christmas special.:))
     

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1638805698 Jason Scott

    In regards to Taylor, I honestly think it’s a combination of both. While BeA is a good song, it’s rather boring for radio, imo. Plus, her new album being mostly pop is definitely having an affect.

    Side note: What other songs on her new album could be released to Country radio, in your opinion?

    Also, YAY CARRIE.

  • windmills

    Lexie O’Neill: I had a chance to look at the Billboard update and thought it was great that there was a big article about Blake’s, LA’s, and Scotty’s Christmas albums with quotes from all three.  Plus, a picture from Scotty’s Christmas special.:))

    Oops, I keep neglecting the Christmas album phenomenon! I think it’s because I feel like they don’t mean much in the arc of a career unless they completely slay in sales a la Josh Groban’s Noel or completely flop (which neither Scotty’s, Blake’s, or Lady A’s albums will). 

    But, Billboard Country Update leads with a story on country stars doing Christmas albums and why it may be more common in the country world. No fresh insight really which is part of why I didn’t mention the article but, I thought this quote from Blake was interesting:

    “Certain personalities can do it and be believable versus others,” Shelton suggests. “My personal life and family life has been—people know more about that than they do my damn music these last couple years, so of course it makes sense to do a Christmas album because people are already familiar with my lifestyle and what my home life is like.”

    At least Blake is honest about where his stardom is coming from these days. 

    Jason Scott: In regards to Taylor, I honestly think it’s a combination of both. While BeA is a good song, it’s rather boring for radio, imo. Plus, her new album being mostly pop is definitely having an affect.
    Side note: What other songs on her new album could be released to Country radio, in your opinion?

    I think the problem is, most of the songs from Red people are talking about for country radio (I Almost Do, Stay Stay Stay) are stale/weaker versions of songs she’s already had hits with and I think that’s true of Begin Again too. Stay Stay Stay is flat out annoying IMO and I Almost Do is forgettable.. Begin Again is the essence of an album track where it makes more sense and sounds better at the end of the album than it does out on its own on the radio in the middle of other people’s songs. 

    Those other songs I mentioned could be country singles but, they wouldn’t stand out and I don’t see them doing a whole lot at country radio. In Taylor’s case, a lot of the songs that are really the attention getters on the album are the ones that’ll go to pop. That being said, she should send All Too Well to country radio with a radio edit that cuts out the last 70 seconds of the song, which includes the worst written verse. It doesn’t sound country either but there’s storytelling, it has the best imagery and the best written line on the album, and it’s the kind of song that makes even people like me who think Taylor is highly overrated appreciate that she does have a gift (especially when she’s writing with Liz Rose!). 

    Odds are Red the song will wind up a single to both pop and country. It’s very catchy but, it’s the worst written out of all her previous hits it sounds like (including Sparks Fly). Other than that I really don’t know what they’ll send to country radio. IMO Holy Ground should be a single but to country? Probably not. There was a country PD, Gregg Sweddberg of KEEY in Minneapolis who commented to USA Today (link) that he didn’t think Red as an album would do as well at country radio as her other albums. I thought that was significant because this is a guy who’d even blogged at the KEEY site defending Taylor a few years ago. I’m sure her pop play will more than make up for that.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Phillip has made into top 10 radio aiplay today.
    Woo! Hoo!

    10. PHILLIP PHILLIPS ? Home: 95.212 (+ 0.771) ?

    Coupled with increased update on POP I feel good about this song’s eventual peak. (And about the fact that it is not peaking yet.)

  • http://twitter.com/bluinjewin Landon Cox

    I thought Alicia Keys’ album has been out for ages and flopped? Man she has been pimping the title track everywhere it seems.

  • http://twitter.com/bluinjewin Landon Cox

    I thought Alicia Keys’ album has been out for ages and flopped? Man she has been pimping the title track everywhere it seems.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    I thought Alicia Keys’ album has been out for ages and flopped?

    Nope, release date was announced in August as November 27, and that’s the date it was actually released.

  • Happyhexer

    I have yet to be able to buy P2′s CD because I’m trying to get the exclusive Target Deluxe edition, and Target hasn’t had it since Black Friday.  (Or if they have, it keeps selling out.)  Why bother with an exclusive edition if your stores aren’t going to stock it?  I’ve been to Target three times already.  But beyond Target, I’m not seeing a lot of physical copies of the CD anywhere.  You can’t buy what is not in the stores.  Yes, there’s Amazon and iTunes, but for more casual purchasers (esp. for gifts), it still makes a difference if there are physical copies available for purchase in brick-and-mortar stores.  There’s a reason why they always place gum and candy next to the checkout stands in grocery stores!  It’s much harder to make an “impulse” buy at Amazon or iTunes.

    Can anyone tell me what the bonus tracks are on the Target Deluxe edition of P2′s CD?  I may just decide to say screw it and purchase the regular CD — and not at Target, either.  They’ve p*ssed me off.

  • ADRIANAARG1980

     THE BONUS TRACKS OF TARGET DELUXE ARE TAKE MY AWAY AND THRILLER

  • fuzzywuzzy

    From HDD:

    iTUNES CHARTS: On the first Tuesday of December, Wiz Khalifa and Ke$ha are holding down the top four slots on the albums side, followed by the lone seasonal album on the leaderboard, Michael Buble?s Christmas. The other debut in the Top 10 is from country duo Florida Georgia Line at #9. will.i.am and his gal pal Britney Spears are tenaciously holding onto the top spot on the singles chart, but the big story is Cassadee Pope, who is going where no Voice
    contestant has gone before, placing two more live performances from the
    show in the Top 10. Could she become the first viable artist to spring
    from the show? Or could that distinction belong to fellow contestant Terry McDermott, at #2, or Nicholas David, at #5?
    As usual, we have no clue?but it?ll be interesting to see how fast the burn is on these instant singles. (12/4a)

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    So happy that someone here got the Target Deluxe CD for me and it arrived yesterday.

    I agree it’s frustrating when they advertize something that you want and ought to be able to get easily, and then they don’t have it.

  • ptebwwong

    CHART DATE: 12/03/2012 
    LAST UPDATE: 12/04/2012 13:37:52 
    NOW IN: FINAL 

    LW TW artist / album label power index % change 
    – 1 ALICIA KEYS RCA 161,038 – 
    GIRL ON FIRE 
    2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 135,682 -25% 
    RED 
    6 3 ROD STEWART VERVE 119,918 +4% 
    MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 
    4 4 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 87,738 -47% 
    TAKE ME HOME 
    3 5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 78,873 -54% 
    WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 
    1 6 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJ 72,356 -70% 
    UNAPOLOGETIC 
    19 7 MICHAEL BUBLE REPRISE 65,230 +24% 
    CHRISTMAS 
    18 8 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE 55,294 +3% 
    ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT 
    16 9 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 48,648 -12% 
    CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS 
    15 10 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 CAPITOL 42,715 -33% 
    VARIOUS ARTISTS 
    20 12 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC NASH/19/INTERSCOPE 40,518 -20% 
    CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 
    12 20 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 26,267 -63% 
    BLOWN AWAY 
    32 21 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 25,741 -10% 
    21 
    11 22 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 25,420 -66% 
    GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 
    34 25 SUSAN BOYLE SYCO/COLUMBIA 23,923 -14% 
    STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 
    23 27 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 22,647 -49% 
    OVEREXPOSED 
    13 28 JUSTIN BIEBER ISLAND/IDJ 22,577 -67% 
    BELIEVE 
    – 30 GLEE CAST COLUMBIA 21,450 – 
    GLEE: THE MUSIC, SEASON 4, V1 
    24 31 TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN 2 CHOP SHOP/ATLANTIC 21,286 -50% 
    SOUNDTRACK 
    29 33 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 20,407 -40% 
    UP ALL NIGHT 
    – 35 CEE LO GREEN NEW ELEKTRA 18,390 – 
    CEE LO’S MAGIC MOMENT 
    17 41 CHRISTINA AGUILERA RCA 14,415 -73% 
    LOTUS 
    31 44 JUSTIN BIEBER ISLAND/IDJ 13,856 -55% 
    UNDER THE MISTLETOE 

  • Liteasy

    I bought my CD at Target thinking I had the Deluxe version, but I don’t.  I’ve yet to see any physical copies in any Walmarts in my area.

  • girlygirltoo

    Nice #s for P2 and Scotty.

    P2 now at approx. 250K total in 2 weeks since album dropped

  • LongKissGoodnight

    If this predictions hold that would mean 53% decrees for Phillip in his second week.
    In contrast Rihanna and Kid Rock who also debuted last week are headed towards 70% and 71% drop respectively.

    Very nice constancy, Phillip. Way to go!)

  • stargazed

    Congrats to P2.  I think he’s done himself proud and is a worthy AI.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Predictions from HDD:

    YOUR TOP 15: Post-Black Friday brings the expected
    sales drops, only one new release in the Top 15 and several Christmas
    titles showing seasonal gains. Here’s how it looks headed into the
    weekend:

    * Alicia Keys (RCA) 150-160k
    Rod Stewart “Merry Christmas Baby” (Verve) 130-140k
    Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 120-130k
    Phillip Phillips (19/Interscope) 80-85k
    One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 75-80k
    Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 70-75k
    Michael Bubl? “Christmas” (Reprise) 70-75k
    Lady Antebellum “On This Winter’s Night” (Capitol Nashville) 65-70k
    Blake Shelton “Cheers It’s Christmas” (Warner Bros. Nashville) 55-60k
    Kid Rock (Atlantic) 50-55k
    Now 44 (Capitol) 40-45k
    Scotty McCreery “Christmas with Scotty McCreery” (Mercury Nashville/19/Interscope) 40-45k
    Keyshia Cole (Geffen) 35-40k
    P!nk (RCA) 35-40k
    Led Zeppelin (Atlantic) 30-35k
    Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 30-35k
    Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) 30-35k

    * Debut

    And what are you planning to do for the holidays? That so? Uh-huh. Wow. That’s really, um … know what? I gotta take this. (11/29p)

  • jpfan2

    3 5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 78,873 -54%WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE
    MOON
    A little under the HDD predictions but an excellent second week. As mentioned a much better drop than Rihanna or Kid Rock.  Next week’s HDD estimates won’t come out until Friday but we’ll know the #1 album tomorrow.

  • tigervixxxen

    Home sold 129k last week so I bet 150k or more is possible this week.

  • heike hoffmann

     But remember, these are only the predicted final sales. There is still a hope that he could be in this 80k-85k range, when the exact numbers are comming out tomorrow.

  • http://twitter.com/ItsMyT1me Lori

    So P2′s got close to 250K in 2 weeks. Terrific! Interscope should be announcing gold certification any minute now. I wonder if they’ll announce the expected winner in Season 12 before the finale too :P

  • Maya100

    Wow, even with lower than normal sales for her albums and no tv, Susan Boyle is holding way better than Xtina.  Amazing.

  • girlygirltoo

    It’s too bad, because Xtina’s album is really good

  • girlygirltoo

    The song is lower on iTunes this week than it was last week, so I don’t see why you would expect it to sell more this week than last. Unless you are thinking there will be some across the board bump due to Black Friday?

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Does Christina have a single currently charting to help boost sales?

  • hellomusicgirl

    How many weeks has Christina’s album been out? A 73% drop seems pretty large for any week other than the second. Or am I mistaken in that the drops generally level off a bit after that big one the week after?

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    How many weeks has Christina’s album been out? A 73% drop seems pretty large for any week other than the second. Or am I mistaken in that the drops generally level off a bit after that big one the week after?

    You’re not mistaken, but either Black Friday or some other factor seem to have weirded out the sales pattern. Using HDD numbers:

    Week 1 – 73,408
    Week 2 – 54.419 – 26.3% drop (very low)
    Week 3 – 14,415 – 73.4% drop (very high)

    However, if the album had taken a normal ~68% second week drop and ~40% third week drop, it’d be at ~14,100, so the difference comes out in the wash.

    That said, Xtina shouldn’t ordinarily see a “normal” pattern. She should have strong radio play and promo that keeps her sales higher than the norm. But the lead single did really meh (peaked at #20 on Top 40 radio) and her duet with Blake Shelton just had its add date today.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “But the lead single did really meh (peaked at #20 on Top 40 radio, not
    even certified gold, so sold poorly for a pop single) and her duet with
    Blake Shelton just had its add date today.”

    They are releasing her duet with Blake as the second single? No wonder she’s kissing Blake’s ass! lol

  • hellomusicgirl

    Interesting! I had not noticed the low drop last week for her. Thanks for the info.

    I’m glad they’re releasing the duet with Blake as the second single — it’s my favorite song on the album. I think it has a chance to do well. I wonder if they’ll try for play on country stations as well? It could have crossover potential. 

  • fuzzywuzzy

    It was really important that they pushed to get P2′s album released now and not next year. With the Black Friday and holiday sales, …. Moon should easily sell gold.

  • tigervixxxen

    To clarify I mean the reported sales on Weds this week, not literally what’s selling this current week. Home hit #1 early week last week only to be unseated by that Scream and Shout song for a few days, it could probably be the 5-6 digital seller this week. Plus that’s when the Today Show, Rachel Ray aired.

  • samuelgrant

    Isn’t that REALLY bad for Alicia’s album considering how much promo she’s gotten? Her last album debuted to 417,000 copies, which means that Girl On Fire dropped by 61% compared to The Element of Freedom.

  • heike hoffmann

     Yes gold should be possible, but I think, platinum will be difficult.

  • girlygirltoo

    ah ok

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I have Susan’s CD and I really like it – probably her best to date. Glad she’s selling a few.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I have Susan’s CD and I really like it – probably her best to date. Glad she’s selling a few.

  • TheOther

    In Philllip’s favor, they haven’t released any new singles yet.  GGG is sure to be a radio hit.  Then there is the new season of Idol.  And Interscope is planning a tour in the Spring to promote the CD.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_PSHFTD4YV3QOE3INABJUXZSWMU hillstreetblooz

     ITA. RCA, and the other assorted labels /mgmt teams pre-Iovine and Interscope, are being shown up for the incompetent, lazy, short-sighted nincompoops they are by Philips success with Home and sales, so far, of this CD. They had arguably much better singers and ‘raw star material’ in many alums to work with, but sold them out, it seems, for the fast buck, milking their built in, emotionally invested, ready made Idol bases for every penny they could before drop kicking them into obscurity.  I hope Philip and Co. are somehow able to sustain his momentum with the second single – it would go a long way in giving me the teensiest bit of hope that this year’s winner will get the same kind of attention from Iovine and Interscope. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    GGG is sure to be a radio hit.

    Unless it is a single from someone like Swift, Kesha, Adam Levine, Katy Perry, Bruno or other proven hit makers, there isn’t such a thing as a sure thing. Timing is very important as far as what songs will be competing on the charts with a single. There also needs to be some big deals going on with the record labels sending singles to radio stations. Then there is always the element of pure luck, such as We are Young or Too Close being used for commercials or Home being used for the golden girls of the Summer Olympics.

    Then there is the possibility that there might be a problem with the best song coming first. If Kelly Clarkson had released Stronger as the debut single off of her album, MKIA would have had a problem.

    GGG might be another hit for P2 or it might not.

  • springboard2

    To his credit, Phillip seems to draw a nice response from his promo performances, for Home and now for his album.
    Even hit singles don’t always generate good album sales, and I think that Phillip himself should get more credit for his success.
    There are better singers out there, Idols alums and others, but this has never been the main factor to get the public interested. May be Phillip just has more of this raw star quality and is a better songwriter, but we’ll have to see.
    This is only era #1 for him, when most of those under a Sony label also did well. The sophomore will say more about his real potential and/or the label ability to launch his career.

     

  • http://twitter.com/ItsMyT1me Lori

    I totally agree. I was poking fun at Interscope, not P2. I think it’s a great collection and looking foward to watching what GGG will do and if there’s a third single.

  • IrisandLilies

    Here’s an interview with Phillip giving more details about the making of his album:

    http://www.soundspike.com/story/4949/idol-phillip-phillips-proud-of-his-debut-album/

  • IrisandLilies

    Here’s an interview with Phillip giving more details about the making of his album:

    http://www.soundspike.com/story/4949/idol-phillip-phillips-proud-of-his-debut-album/

  • mmb

    I think it is a little too early to praise Interscope as the masters of the universe and Sony as incompetent fools when it comes to post Idol success.  So far they have handled P2 well, and they have done much better at picking coronation songs that can be true singles.  But the Sony labels had a damn good first era track record with most of their Idol alums as well.  Even over the past few years.  Jordin, Archie, Cook, Kris, Adam all had platinum plus selling radio hits their first era.  All did the major talk shows, jingle balls, some got good commercial placement for their songs. Jordin and Adam got Grammy nominations.  Except for Kris all had top ten album debuts and strong debut era album sales.  Jordin and Adam both had more than one debut era single that made an impact on the chr radio charts. Cook had a monster AC hit with his coronation single  So I don’t see much that is all that superior yet about Interscope v Sony outside of the coronation singles.  Will Interscope do better post debut era?  Who knows?