HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Nov-26-Dec-2

By On 12/04/2012 · 47 Comments · In American Idol, Britain's Got Talent, Charts, X Factor UK

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With 55.94% of reports in, Alicia Keys is on her way to her third album (out of 5) that debuts at the top of the BB200. Just like Jack Frost, nipping at her heels is the biggest Christmas album of the season from Rod Stewart. There are 4 Christmas albums in the top 10 including the Christmas album of the season last year from Michael Buble (and people wonder why artists put out these Christmas albums full of covers. Rod probably croaked out his songs in a day or two and he’s going to make major coin this season and be revived for the next 3 or so. Nice work if you can get it). Lady Antebellum (whose female member famously did not make it on Idol) and Voice Judge Blake Shelton have Christmas albums at 9 and 10.

Taylor Swift continues to sell strongly at 3 (how many stockings will contain her CD this year?) while One Direction are defying pundits and not having a total collapse in sales after their big first week are at 5 (how many stockings will contain Taylor and 1Ds CD this year?). One Direction, from the 7 season of the UK X-Factor also have their previous album (released earlier in 2012) on the chart. “Up All Night” is up at 24.

Our latest Idol winner Phil Phillips is currently in 6th for his first week demonstrating a remarkable drop in his second week. Typically, drops from first to second week are in the 60-70% range, but one expects slightly higher drops when moving out of a Black Friday week. Last week he sold 172K according to HDD (SS reports 169K, but we need to compare numbers from the same source assuming the same bias is in place) and was predicted to sell 80-85K on Friday. That represents a drop of 50-53%. It helps that the ever-popular “Home” appears to be peaking (or approaching the peak) on radio at just the right moment. I know they had a bit of luck and some hate giving credit to the label for anything, but the label appears to have done everything right this time. A nice change of pace.

Right behind Phil is last week’s number one artist, Rihanna. Looks like if any fans stuffed the ballot box and front loaded sales, it was hers (Phil, 1D and Taylor fans all got those accusations – but even her drop is in the 70% range). Now 44 is at 8 (features American Idol Kelly Clarkson, Canadian Idol Carly Rae Jepsen, Voice Judge Adam Levine and new American Idol judge Nicki Minaj).

Scotty McCreery, last year’s Idol winner is at 13 with his contribution to the Christmas rush, “Christmas with Scotty”. The original Country winner from season 4 is Carrie Underwood and her “Blown Away” album continues to sell well at 38th. Kelly Clarkson, winner from season 1 has her Greatest Hits album selling at 34th. Susan Boyle, runner-up from BGT, is at 37th with her fourth studio album.

Rounding up the judges: Adam Levine’s Maroon 5 from the Voice (staying steady) at 28, Christina from the Voice (fading fast) at 37th and Nicki Minaj re-release dropping as expected at 47th.

CHART DATE: 12/03/2012
LAST UPDATE: 12/03/2012 14:06:04
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index

– 1 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 82,148
6 2 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 75,224
2 3 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 60,190
19 4 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 54,960
4 5 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 48,982
3 6 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 36,273
1 7 RIHANNA UNAPOLOGETIC 34,188
15 8 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 34,078
18 9 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT 32,954
16 10 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS 29,177
…
20 13 SCOTTY MCCREERY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 21,368
…
23 28 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 7,310
29 24 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 8,277
…
12 30 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 6,098
…
11 34 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 4,874
…
17 36 CHRISTINA AGUILERA LOTUS 4,415
34 37 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 4,359
…
28 47 NICKI MINAJ PINK FRIDAY: ROMAN RELOADED 3,215
…
– 50 MIGUEL KALEIDOSCOPE DREAM 2,747

FINAL

- 1 ALICIA KEYS GIRL ON FIRE 161,038
2 2 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 135,682 -25%
6 3 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 119,918 +4%
4 4 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 87,738 -47%
3 5 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 78,873 -54%
1 6 RIHANNA UNAPOLOGETIC 72,356 -70%
19 7 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 65,230 +24%
18 8 LADY ANTEBELLUM ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT NASHVILLE 55,294 +3%
16 9 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS NASHVILLE 48,648 -12%
15 10 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 42,715 -33%
…
20 12 SCOTTY MCCREERY CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 40,518 -20%
…
12 20 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 26,267 -63%
…
11 22 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 25,420 -66%
…
34 25 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 23,923 -14%
…
23 27 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 22,647 -49%
…
– 30 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, SEASON 4, V1 21,450 –
…
24 31 TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN 2  21,286 -50%
…
29 33 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 20,407 -40%
…
– 35 CEE LO GREEN CEE LO’S MAGIC MOMENT 18,390 –
…
17 41 CHRISTINA AGUILERA LOTUS 14,415 -73%
…
– 50 VINCE GUARALDI FANTASY 12,890 –

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • girlygirltoo

    It’s too bad, because Xtina’s album is really good

  • girlygirltoo

    The song is lower on iTunes this week than it was last week, so I don’t see why you would expect it to sell more this week than last. Unless you are thinking there will be some across the board bump due to Black Friday?

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Does Christina have a single currently charting to help boost sales?

  • hellomusicgirl

    How many weeks has Christina’s album been out? A 73% drop seems pretty large for any week other than the second. Or am I mistaken in that the drops generally level off a bit after that big one the week after?

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    How many weeks has Christina’s album been out? A 73% drop seems pretty large for any week other than the second. Or am I mistaken in that the drops generally level off a bit after that big one the week after?

    You’re not mistaken, but either Black Friday or some other factor seem to have weirded out the sales pattern. Using HDD numbers:

    Week 1 – 73,408
    Week 2 – 54.419 – 26.3% drop (very low)
    Week 3 – 14,415 – 73.4% drop (very high)

    However, if the album had taken a normal ~68% second week drop and ~40% third week drop, it’d be at ~14,100, so the difference comes out in the wash.

    That said, Xtina shouldn’t ordinarily see a “normal” pattern. She should have strong radio play and promo that keeps her sales higher than the norm. But the lead single did really meh (peaked at #20 on Top 40 radio) and her duet with Blake Shelton just had its add date today.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “But the lead single did really meh (peaked at #20 on Top 40 radio, not
    even certified gold, so sold poorly for a pop single) and her duet with
    Blake Shelton just had its add date today.”

    They are releasing her duet with Blake as the second single? No wonder she’s kissing Blake’s ass! lol

  • hellomusicgirl

    Interesting! I had not noticed the low drop last week for her. Thanks for the info.

    I’m glad they’re releasing the duet with Blake as the second single — it’s my favorite song on the album. I think it has a chance to do well. I wonder if they’ll try for play on country stations as well? It could have crossover potential. 

  • fuzzywuzzy

    It was really important that they pushed to get P2′s album released now and not next year. With the Black Friday and holiday sales, …. Moon should easily sell gold.

  • tigervixxxen

    To clarify I mean the reported sales on Weds this week, not literally what’s selling this current week. Home hit #1 early week last week only to be unseated by that Scream and Shout song for a few days, it could probably be the 5-6 digital seller this week. Plus that’s when the Today Show, Rachel Ray aired.

  • samuelgrant

    Isn’t that REALLY bad for Alicia’s album considering how much promo she’s gotten? Her last album debuted to 417,000 copies, which means that Girl On Fire dropped by 61% compared to The Element of Freedom.

  • heike hoffmann

     Yes gold should be possible, but I think, platinum will be difficult.

  • girlygirltoo

    ah ok

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I have Susan’s CD and I really like it – probably her best to date. Glad she’s selling a few.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I have Susan’s CD and I really like it – probably her best to date. Glad she’s selling a few.

  • TheOther

    In Philllip’s favor, they haven’t released any new singles yet.  GGG is sure to be a radio hit.  Then there is the new season of Idol.  And Interscope is planning a tour in the Spring to promote the CD.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_PSHFTD4YV3QOE3INABJUXZSWMU hillstreetblooz

     ITA. RCA, and the other assorted labels /mgmt teams pre-Iovine and Interscope, are being shown up for the incompetent, lazy, short-sighted nincompoops they are by Philips success with Home and sales, so far, of this CD. They had arguably much better singers and ‘raw star material’ in many alums to work with, but sold them out, it seems, for the fast buck, milking their built in, emotionally invested, ready made Idol bases for every penny they could before drop kicking them into obscurity.  I hope Philip and Co. are somehow able to sustain his momentum with the second single – it would go a long way in giving me the teensiest bit of hope that this year’s winner will get the same kind of attention from Iovine and Interscope. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    GGG is sure to be a radio hit.

    Unless it is a single from someone like Swift, Kesha, Adam Levine, Katy Perry, Bruno or other proven hit makers, there isn’t such a thing as a sure thing. Timing is very important as far as what songs will be competing on the charts with a single. There also needs to be some big deals going on with the record labels sending singles to radio stations. Then there is always the element of pure luck, such as We are Young or Too Close being used for commercials or Home being used for the golden girls of the Summer Olympics.

    Then there is the possibility that there might be a problem with the best song coming first. If Kelly Clarkson had released Stronger as the debut single off of her album, MKIA would have had a problem.

    GGG might be another hit for P2 or it might not.

  • springboard2

    To his credit, Phillip seems to draw a nice response from his promo performances, for Home and now for his album.
    Even hit singles don’t always generate good album sales, and I think that Phillip himself should get more credit for his success.
    There are better singers out there, Idols alums and others, but this has never been the main factor to get the public interested. May be Phillip just has more of this raw star quality and is a better songwriter, but we’ll have to see.
    This is only era #1 for him, when most of those under a Sony label also did well. The sophomore will say more about his real potential and/or the label ability to launch his career.

     

  • http://twitter.com/ItsMyT1me Lori

    I totally agree. I was poking fun at Interscope, not P2. I think it’s a great collection and looking foward to watching what GGG will do and if there’s a third single.

  • IrisandLilies

    Here’s an interview with Phillip giving more details about the making of his album:

    http://www.soundspike.com/story/4949/idol-phillip-phillips-proud-of-his-debut-album/

  • IrisandLilies

    Here’s an interview with Phillip giving more details about the making of his album:

    http://www.soundspike.com/story/4949/idol-phillip-phillips-proud-of-his-debut-album/

  • mmb

    I think it is a little too early to praise Interscope as the masters of the universe and Sony as incompetent fools when it comes to post Idol success.  So far they have handled P2 well, and they have done much better at picking coronation songs that can be true singles.  But the Sony labels had a damn good first era track record with most of their Idol alums as well.  Even over the past few years.  Jordin, Archie, Cook, Kris, Adam all had platinum plus selling radio hits their first era.  All did the major talk shows, jingle balls, some got good commercial placement for their songs. Jordin and Adam got Grammy nominations.  Except for Kris all had top ten album debuts and strong debut era album sales.  Jordin and Adam both had more than one debut era single that made an impact on the chr radio charts. Cook had a monster AC hit with his coronation single  So I don’t see much that is all that superior yet about Interscope v Sony outside of the coronation singles.  Will Interscope do better post debut era?  Who knows?

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