Reporting in from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

There was 1 recurrent at Billboard in front of the charting Idols: Dierks Bentley out of the t10. There was also 1 recurrent at Aircheck/Mediabase: The Band Perry’s Better Dig Two. This coming week The Band Perry is likely going to recurrent by falling out of the t10 but there’s no guarantee of that. Kacey Musgraves may also go recurrent after dropping from its #10 peak to #12. At Aircheck/Mediabase, Dierks Bentley and Taylor Swift will go recurrent.

Carrie Underwood’s Two Black Cadillacs had a decent week gaining 1.604 million AIs at Billboard, but dropped a spot to #4 because Blake Shelton’s mediocre single continued to shoot up the charts. Like I said yesterday, this is where the Taylor/Dierks/Brad pushes hurt 2BC by eating up spins that would’ve let 2BC build up a buffer against Blake. Sure Be Cool If You Did now leads 2BC by 1.667 million AIs and is #1 on the Billboard Real Time Tracker as of this morning. Hunter’s Somebody’s Heartbreak benefited from its push into the t5 and actually closed to only 809k behind 2BC.

To be honest, it looks to me like Warner Nashville has outmaneuvered Arista Nashville by pushing Blake & Hunter at key times to create the right gaps behind them, whereas Arista Nashville kept up with its Carrie tradition of not pushing her singles until the week they are supposed to peak. 2BC would really need radio programmers to get on board this week to have a chance of making Billboard #1. I don’t think the chances are that great. It wouldn’t take a huge push to make up the 1.667 million gap with Blake for a week but I’m not feeling that happening right now. More for strategic reasons than any actual weakness on 2BC’s part – the label didn’t manage the song’s t10 run well despite the song’s sales, callout, and good run on the airplay charts. To reinforce my point about how 2BC was likely a 2 week #1 on an unmanipulated chart, 2BC is still bulleted on the small market Indicator chart, where it is #1 for a 2nd week.

Arista Nashville has released a new sort of mashup of Carrie’s 2BC with Dolly Parton’s Jolene to help its cause, and you can listen to it here. It’s an interesting idea, and there are parts of the mashup that work, others that don’t. I feel like it might work better live and if what this means is we might get a live 2BC/Jolene mashup at the ACMs with Carrie performing with Dolly Parton, it will all be worth it. Deejay Silver, the guy who did the edit, expects the edit to be on Itunes but I don’t think it’s there yet.

As far as where 2BC will finish the week at Billboard, Tim McGraw’s song will drop below and Little Big Town’s big push was last week so they should also drop below. I’m looking for 2BC to continue Carrie’s streak of songs that have peaked t2 and finish the week at #2.

On Aircheck/Mediabase, 2BC had a quiet week gaining 874 points and dropping a spot to #4 because Blake passed. The gap with Blake is 794 points. Arista Nashville has a half page ad urging country radio to power 2BC up to #1 in Aircheck (not Billboard), but Blake has a full page ACM FYC consideration Aircheck ad that also urges country radio to power him up. It’ll either be Carrie or Blake at #1 Mediabase/Aircheck this week and the other will be at #2. This morning’s update favored Blake but Carrie had a strong gain too. It just depends on how the rest of the week goes – the trends for the week are usually clearer in the Wednesday/Thursday updates. Carrie’s 2BC is #1 on the Aircheck Activiator small market chart.

Kelly’s Don’t Rush had a solid week gaining 609k (helped by countdown spin gains) though it dropped a spot to #29 because Jason Aldean and Brad Paisley both passed. The Tim/Taylor duet, the new Band Perry single, and the new Zac Brown Band single are all likely to pass this week so DR could drop to #31. But DR is likely to be safe from being passed for at least a couple more weeks after that. Even if it does temporarily drop out of the t30, that won’t affect countdown spins because this is the Billboard chart.

At Aircheck/Mediabase DR gained 406 points and held at #28. It also closed to within 171 points of Jana Kramer’s Whiskey by outgaining it by 302 points. In fact there was a point during last week where DR did pass Whiskey, but Whiskey repassed last week. So, they’re close and that one could go either way this week. Jason Aldean’s 1994 closed to within 525 points of DR by outgainiing it by 1249 points, so it’s likely to pass this week. It could also be a tight race with Brad’s Beat This Summer, which will pass next week if not this week. At worst, those 2 passing will be offset by the recurrents, so DR should hold at #38. Tim/Taylor, Band Perry, and Zac Brown Band will likely assert themselves next week but I expect DR to hang on in the t30.

Idol-related ads: Sony Nashville has a full page ad congratulating its 5 ACM nominees, including side by side promo pics of Carrie and Kelly in Billboard Country Update. In Aircheck Arista Nashville took out a full page ad, the top half of which it devotes to Carrie’s 2BC, talking about how it is #1 favorite among the core 35-44 demo and the #1 favorite among core females at Callout America. There is also a 1/3 page ad for Tate Stevens by RCA Nashville in Aircheck, telling country radio “Great song. Great singer.” RCA Nashville took out a full page ad congratulating 1 of its execs for winning a charity boxing match between label promo reps which I mention to say that got a bigger ad than Tate (or Carrie, for that matter).

Warner Nashville on the other hand has 5 full pages of ads in Aircheck: a full page for Blake, a full page for Hunter, a full page split into 3 for Gloriana, Jana Kramer, and Charlie Worsham promoting their singles with some feedback and sales data, and another full page for Jana Kramer. The 3 full page ads are mostly geared towards ACM voters but also mention their current singles.

Recommended reading: Billboard Country Update’s lead story is the unlikely rise of Nashville Star alum Kacey Musgraves. It turns out she was potentially in limbo a year ago because Luke Lewis, the guy who had signed her to Lost Highway under the UMG Nashville umbrella, was on his way out and new head Mike Dungan was going to have to decide what to do. The standing ovation she got at CRS solidified her place at UMG Nashville and she was promoted by Mercury Nashville. Apparently they tested some other songs for programmers that wouldn’t be seen as being as much of a risk as Merry Go Round but stuck with MGR. She talks about her vocal influences (she thinks Lee Ann Womack has the best pure female country voice around but also tries to emulate John Prine’s talk/singing style). She also says she knows people don’t like being preached at, so her goal is to write as a watcher/observer, not as an insider or outsider.

By the way, Kacey’s debut album ‘Same Trailer, Different Park’ is streaming at NPR. It’s due out next week.

Mediabase – Tuesday update:

AAA:
11 8 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Gone, Gone, Gone 353 308 45 1.454
+2 Spins
-11 Bullet
+0.004 AI
30 35 VICCI MARTINEZ Come Along f/CeeLo Green 104 137 -33 0.397
+3 Spins
+14 Bullet
+0.041 AI
AC:
1 1 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 2140 2112 28 16.247
+49 Spins
+66 Bullet
-0.05 AI
4 3 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 1601 1462 139 12.487
+20 Spins
+19 Bullet
+0.237 AI
12 13 OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN Good Time 574 630 -56 3.019
-36 Spins
-64 Bullet
-0.097 AI
40 42 CASSADEE POPE Over You 23 24 -1 0
-1 Spins
-1 Bullet
0 AI
Alt:
38 36 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 216 181 35 0.749
+6 Spins
+8 Bullet
+0.006 AI
Country:
3 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Two Black Cadillacs 6360 6177 183 50.334
+32 Spins
-21 Bullet
+0.426 AI
28 28 KELLY CLARKSON Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill 1606 1517 89 11.528
+39 Spins
+25 Bullet
+0.186 AI
HAC:
5 5 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 4162 4191 -29 32.169
-15 Spins
-12 Bullet
-0.268 AI
21 20 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Gone, Gone, Gone 1368 1036 332 7.579
+33 Spins
-3 Bullet
+0.176 AI
22 23 VICCI MARTINEZ Come Along f/CeeLo Green 1115 1033 82 4.592
+21 Spins
+18 Bullet
+0.045 AI
34 31 OLLY MURS Troublemaker f/Flo Rida 575 437 138 1.874
+16 Spins
-5 Bullet
+0.027 AI
53 50 ONE DIRECTION Kiss You 122 86 36 0.396
+2 Spins
-1 Bullet
-0.012 AI
POP:
13 14 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 6605 6815 -210 43.25
-33 Spins
-30 Bullet
-0.455 AI
18 17 OLLY MURS Troublemaker f/Flo Rida 5048 4889 159 33.397
+65 Spins
-24 Bullet
+0.153 AI
19 19 ONE DIRECTION Kiss You 4349 4498 -149 21.601
-118 Spins
-186 Bullet
-0.383 AI
34 34 CHER LLOYD With Ur Love f/Juicy J 1583 1422 161 8.744
+19 Spins
+6 Bullet
+0.286 AI
50 46 CARLY RAE JEPSEN Tonight I’m Getting Over You 610 447 163 1.923
+20 Spins
-2 Bullet
+0.056 AI
48 49 STEFANO Yes To Love 472 465 7 0.866
0 Spins
-10 Bullet
-0.001 AI
Urban AC:
11 10 FANTASIA Lose To Win 890 778 112 6.897
+48 Spins
+75 Bullet
+0.49 AI
Canada-AlternativeRock:
45 45 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 51 49 2 0.159
-1 Spins
+2 Bullet
+0.001 AI
Canada-Country:
5 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Two Black Cadillacs 808 795 13 2.544
-4 Spins
-6 Bullet
+0.02 AI
Canada-Hot AC:
12 15 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 670 718 -48 1.856
+1 Spins
+23 Bullet
-0.008 AI
14 17 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 640 707 -67 2.369
-11 Spins
-3 Bullet
-0.07 AI
20 20 OLLY MURS Troublemaker f/Flo Rida 583 572 11 2.495
+1 Spins
-11 Bullet
+0.009 AI
37 37 ONE DIRECTION Kiss You 241 241 0 0.873
-3 Spins
-7 Bullet
-0.074 AI
Canada-Main AC:
1 1 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Home 382 405 -23 3.364
0 Spins
-5 Bullet
+0.251 AI
6 7 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 298 286 12 1.913
+7 Spins
+7 Bullet
+0.049 AI
Canada-Top 40:
14 13 OLLY MURS Troublemaker f/Flo Rida 910 925 -15 4.254
-4 Spins
-15 Bullet
+0.015 AI
28 30 ONE DIRECTION Kiss You 431 443 -12 1.685
-3 Spins
-11 Bullet
-0.015 AI
33 33 KELLY CLARKSON Catch My Breath 355 331 24 1.525
+7 Spins
+9 Bullet
-0.037 AI
Christian AC:
13 11 COLTON DIXON You Are 685 655 30 2.987
0 Spins
-4 Bullet
+0.058 AI
66 50 OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN Good Time 46 28 18 0.139
-1 Spins
+6 Bullet
-0.003 AI
Spanish Contemporary:
43 45 OLLY MURS Troublemaker f/Flo Rida 121 109 12 2.824
-3 Spins
-12 Bullet
-0.035 AI

When is Olly Murs’ album supposed to be released?

Question for Windmills. When is a good time and location (particular thread) to ask you a question about trends on country radio? I’m not sure where you are mostly likely to pop up? I’m going to have to get going now, but I’m really curious about something.

HDD Final:
43 31 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 11,855 -5%
WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE
MOON
42 36 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA
NASHVILLE 11,038 -14%
BLOWN AWAY
47 40 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 10,525 -10%
GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1

happyhexer: Best location would be the numbers thread, whether it’s today’s or tomorrow’s or whenever it is you have the time to post :)

Good time – I’m usually peeking into MJ’s, especially the numbers thread during the day on weekdays (procrastinating from work LOL), though I do try to pop in once during the evening too.

I’m pretty good about checking my notifications so if you reply to one of my posts then I’ll see your post too.