HDD – Album Sales Prediction : July 9-15

By On 07/17/2012 · 119 Comments · In American Idol, Charts, X Factor UK

Share on TumblrShare via email

With 54.02% of the chart reporting in, the affable Zac Brown Band is set to debut at number 1 with predicted sales over 200K. This band won the Best New Grammy award for 2009, proving once again that the “curse” of that award is not all that powerful. The Band’s debut sales are up significantly from their last album (145K).

Justin Bieber is currently is second indicating that his sales may be stabilizing. He could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th. Frank Ocen is set to debut at second and is currently in third. Since his album is supposed to be an iTunes exclusive, does that mean that iTunes reports more than once? Chris Brown was first last week and is 4th right now. Kenny Chesney is 5th, Adele is ascending again at 6th, Linkin Park is 7th and Eric Church is 10th.

One Direction, from UK XF continues to sell well and are sitting at 8th. Maroon 5 featuring Voice judge Adam Levine is right behind at 9th. Also judging The Voice, is Blake Shelton who appears on Now Country 5 now at 22.

The first Idol to show up on our charts is our newest winner. Phil Phillips is showing just what a good idea those Walmart albums are and is currently 14th. It’s exclusive to Walmart, so there will likely be a bunch more reported when the second half of Walmart reports later today. Carrie Underwood is not far behind at 18th. Meanwhile, Kelly Clarkson appears on 3 albums: her solo album at 27th, Now 42 at 16th (1D is on there as well) and Jason Aldean’s album at 24th.

CHART DATE: 07/16/2012
LAST UPDATE: 07/16/2012 11:13:08
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 ZAC BROWN BAND UNCAGED 75,527
3 2 JUSTIN BIEBER BELIEVE 28,536
– 3 FRANK OCEAN CHANNEL ORANGE 28,525
1 4 CHRIS BROWN FORTUNE 20,152
8 5 KENNY CHESNEY WELCOME TO THE FISHBOWL 19,069
9 6 ADELE 21 17,730
4 7 LINKIN PARK LIVING THINGS 17,163
11 8 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 15,928
5 9 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 15,545
34 10 ERIC CHURCH CHIEF 12,349
…
25 14 PHILLIP PHILLIPS AMERICAN IDOL EP 10,293
…
28 16 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 42 VARIOUS ARTISTS 9,640
…
32 18 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 8,417
…
42 22 NOW COUNTRY 5 VARIOUS ARTISTS 6,635
…
46 24 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 4,624
…
47 27 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 4,127
…
– 50 BLACK KEYS BROTHERS 1,044

Hits Daily Double

 
← Older Comments
  • Anonymous

    I am glad to see The Zach Brown Band do well. I am not a big country fan but I really like them. I do think it is way too soon to assume that Scotty will do well on his second album just because he is a country artist. He is no longer going to have the exposure of AI. The country music market is a very crowded field of country artists now. I do listen to my local country station and they never play Scotty’s songs and have not for months. They do play Hunter Hayes quite often and I believe he released his album at the same time Scotty did. Scotty does have a problem with no radio play and I am not so sure that will change with his second album.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

     I’m sorry for the delay in reply!  I really did go read a book last night–the Blair Garner thing bothered me.  It’s not that I’m a child and don’t realize how political all this is, but I guess I really didn’t understand the machinations behind the scenes.

    Anyway, thank you for the compliment–and all those who liked it (even though I’m pretty sure those were about the non over-the-top aspect:).  One thing is, I am a lifelong country music fan, literally from the mountains where my Daddy can still get you some moonshine (nasty stuff).  I am very much a bluegrass/traditional country fan and it saddens me to see the direction my music is taking.  But, as a Scotty fan, I’m sticking, not fickle.

    About that invitation…sure:)

     

  • Anonymous

    Hunter’s sales although slow in the beginning have picked up and held at a steady pace for the last few months.  That is what a few radio hits and having the country music and radio behind you will do. Another aspect for Scotty to succeed in my opinion is to show people he can hang with the Brantley’s, Hunters etc in terms of writing and  overall music skills. Fair or not I thing he is also being judged on these things.

  • http://twitter.com/goneCountry33 Gadfly

    “Do you mean Blair Garner traveled to see him or that Blair sought him
    out because he has a particular belief in Scotty. I agree with the 1st
    part but, Blair Garner’s Garner trip was definitely arranged by the
    label as part of winning a radio guy over and letting him see up close
    what makes Scotty Scotty. It’s a good thing for them to do.”

    Windmills, I actually thought Blair has always been a pretty big Scotty supporter . He tweeted about CAD before its release, saying how great it was and said it had many huge hits in it. He had also commented on how great Scotty & his family were many times even before he flew to Garner last May. I could be wrong but I dont think Blair needed to trip to be won over.

  • Anonymous

    It hasn’t outpeaked CaseyJ’s debut single yet, nor has it proven to be a breakout single for him yet. What it has done is make t40 in half the time it took LDCIAN. That’s nice but it’s not even close to being time to break out the champagne.

    Okay, okay. I’ll keep the bubbly corked. For now. ;-)

  • Anonymous

    If you look back at many of the Idols who have been guests on radio shows, they often are told what great guys/gals they are and that they love their music.  Then they don’t play their music even when you know people are requesting.  I just will never get the radio thing.  I was on a driving trip recently and I heard the same songs played over and over.  There were only a couple songs that I would consider listening to if I hadn’t been captive in the car. 

  • Anonymous

    I have my special snowflake, true. I wouldn’t say I’m obsessed.

    Oh.

    ;)

    chuckle. Well, in my defense, I haven’t purchased multiple copies of his CD nor any jewelry, hats, t-shirts or lunch boxes. Yet. I don’t think I’ve posted that he is the second coming, bound to rule the country world or a better singer, guitar player, personality than any other past idol on this blog or any other. Yet. I do think I’m pretty clear about the mountain the snowflake has to climb in order to be a long term country music star. It’s a big mountain. I have hopes but am realistic. So far. 

    I guess my broader point was that I enjoy the music CJ makes. I enjoyed it before he came along. I like bluesy, country rock. So whether or not CJ achieves lasting fame and fortune, I will still follow him and buy his music. It has nothing at all to do with AI and everything to do with the music. Well, a little about his looks too. ;-) 

    So when I hear peeps say they have never listened to an idol’s type of music but now they love it, I’m a bit dubious about their being a long term fan. They are in love with the reality show contestant. Not the music. And that doesn’t usually translate into a long term fan.

  • Anonymous

    You’re on. I’m planning on going to the CMA festival next June. Maybe then. I’ll drag you to a Casey James concert and you can drag me to a Scotty McCreary concert. ;-)

  • Anonymous

    One thing is, I am a lifelong country music fan,

    See, this gives you cred IMHO. Not that it matters what I think, but I’ve hung around in the bubble long enough to know, that you’ve got to genuinely like the music the idol is making to stick as a fan. 

  • Anonymous

    I wouldn’t argue that there is a lot of crap on the radio but that has always been the case because your crap is someone else pleasure.  So I still contend you want your stuff played on radio so the masses can hear it and decide if it is there crap or pleasure.
    As for me I listen to my cds I use social media and I listen to Country Radio until Truck Yeah or Rock Star comes on then I admit I shut it off. 

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    karenc: I think part of the problem with the idols is they don’t seem to get the same level of promotion a new artist usually gets, even on their second albums.

    Actually, if you compare Idols to new artists who had the same level of sales with their first album (corrected: comparable level of radio hits would be a better metric) — rather than to the big break-out artists — Idols tend to get more promotion than their peers. The performance gig on Idol itself isn’t chopped liver (and very few new artists get it — Lana Del Rey was a notable major exception recently), and “winning or nearly winning Idol” seems to open some TV and radio doors for interviews. 

    Of course, the post-Idol-win level of promo is way beyond what a typical newbie artist would get. Most rock bands on their first album — or even pop acts — aren’t appearing on all the morning shows.


    Caro3278sweet2    : I’ve hung around in the bubble long enough to know, that you’ve got to genuinely like the music the idol is making to stick as a fan.

    Yeah, cause they tend to revert to making the music they want to make! 

    If people are turned on to an entire genre through an Idol, that’d be one thing. I thought I disliked country music until I stumbled over a band called Stealing Angels, loved their stuff, figured I’d give country a try, and now I listen to country radio regularly and enjoy a reasonable number of country acts. If I lived in a region where the local music scene ran heavily country, I could handle that (Phx is instead a very metal-head region). But yeah, if I’d decided the only country I liked was Stealing Angels, I’d be on the side of the country DJs in concluding it was safe to ignore my requests.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    I’m another long-term country fan. Interestingly enough, I recently read an article about Neil Young talking about growing up in Winnipeg, Manitoba, and pretty well all there was to listen to was country music. Well, I was listening to the same stations he was. Plus the one in Brandon, which was also country.

    The very first record I remember getting exited about – a 78 RPM with only one song on each side that my dad brought home when I was about 6 or 7 years old – was one with Jimmie Rodgers singing “In the Jailhouse Now” and “Frankie and Johnny.”

    Later, while everyone else was going on about Elvis Presley, I was listening to Johnny Cash.

    To be honest, if Nashville Star was still on, I’d be watching it instead of Idol. But if IDOL is looking for a lesson on what not to do, that might be a good place to go. The first year was great. Buddy Jewell, John Arthur Martinez, and Miranda Lambert were all strong. And they could sing some originals, by the way.

    The second year was good in many ways, except the wrong person won (wrong for the show in every way). If the 2nd place finisher (George Canyon) had won, I think the show would have gotten stronger. Problem was they did the same as  DWTS and had 3 on the finale. Two cancelled each other out because they had a similar fanbase. And it spiraled downhill after that. Not saying there wasn’t some great talent including Chris Young. The show just lost any traction it had and the winners weren’t decently promoted.

    Anyway, all I wanted to say is that I really don’t like the way country music is going either. Maybe it means country has to split into two separate things. Not sure.

    I’m a big fan of Scotty’s and I hope he’s able to do the music he wants to do.

  • Anonymous

    Cassie has a lunch box.LOL

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

     Ah, I was debating whether to go to CMA again…it will probably depend on what Scotty’s doing.;) 

    I actually watched Casey J for a few minutes outside of the Hall of Fame, but it was lunch time and I had to go (he had a nice crowd:)…so, let’s talk closer to next June:) 

    As far as people sticking as fans…I think being a long time fan of the genre helps, but I also think some people are being turned on to country music as a result of seeing Scotty (and probably were with Carrie, etc.).  Several I met at Scotty’s fan club party have since joined Josh Turner’s fan club, Brad’s fan club (even going so far as to attending their shows), and so on…

  • Anonymous

    Cassie has a lunch box.LOL

    ;-) Well, if he doesn’t, he should. CASEY certainly has his share of cray cray fans who would buy it. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/cathy.mcguirekosak Cathy Mcguire Kosak

    Thanks Lexie…I grew up in Connecticut..married,moved to Massachusetts,…not a great area for country music.I actually have never been a fan of any particular music..I now am retired & live in northern Florida, so I’VE REALLY LEARNED TO APPRECIATE COUNTRY MUSIC…and for the 1st time in my long life I am a true fan ! Maybe having 11 grandchildren, I needed someone like Scotty to come along..someone who’s music and style makes me proud to be his fan,I wouldn’t play alot of the songs out there….Maybe this makes me a prude…..But at my age I’m not gonna change…I’m w/Scotty for the long hall…..

  • Anonymous

    It is interesting to hear how people came to country music for me it was about 5 years ago as I morphed from folk music/soft rock to country.  So I guess I might be more open to the pop country and even some of the rock country out there.  I always loved Dolly and Reba’s stuff but some of the real old country doesn’t do it for me.  It is clear that for now the direction is for the Jason Aldean and Eric Churchs rock and more pop sounding country.
    I try to keep an open mind and if I like a song I do not worry where it fits. If young people drive what is on the radio then that is the direction country radio will be going in because that is what they like so maybe a split is in order if that is the only way songs like Alan Jackson’s (So You Don’t Have To Love Me) can get played because that was a beautiful song.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    Yeah, I actually have fairly eclectic musical interests, but I prefer country music where I can actually make out the words and where there’s some thought behind the lyrics. Actually that’s what I prefer in all my music that includes singing.

  • Karen C

    Actually, if you compare Idols to new artists who had the same level of sales with their first album (corrected: comparable level of radio hits would be a better metric)

    I’ve seen new artists with the same level of sales get more singles than the recent Idols do though.  If there is a platinum album, and at least 1 platinum single, other artists seem to get at least 3-4 singles from their albums, with full promotion. The idols get 2 or 3, with the last one barely promoted. 

← Older Comments