HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Jan 28-Feb 3

With 70.38% of reports in, we’ve got an eclectic leader board – a teen sensation, an opera singer and an influential R&B artist. Justin Bieber leads the pack with an acoustic version of his recent album, “Believe”. He can’t be caught with already reported sales of 176K and a prediction that he will sell between 190K and 215K. Next up is Italian Tenor, Andrea Bocelli with his 14th studio album. This one features Mediterranean love songs and former Idol judge JLo (plus a “virtual duet” with Édith Piaf. I love Édith, I don’t love duets with dead people). Finally, in the top 3 is Charlie Wilson who celebrated his 60th birthday by releasing “Love, Charlie”.

Last week’s number 1, Gary Allan takes the 4th slot with “Set You Free”. Bruno Mars holds steady at 5th, Taylor moves up to 6th and the Grammy nominees slide down to 7th (album includes tracks by Idols Kelly Clarkson and Carly Rae Jepsen). The top 10 is rounded out by the “Pitch Perfect” soundtrack, another Kidz Bop album and a debut from Indie Rockers and twins Tegan and Sara.

Not far behind is the winner of his season, Phil Phillips at 21st and One Direction’s “Take Me Home” at 22nd (they also have their first album “Up All Night” at 43rd). Carrie Underwood’s “Blown Away” is at 31st and Kelly Clarkson’s Greatest Hits is at 34. Representing the Voice is first season winner, Adam Levine whose band’s “Overexposed” is at 38th. Now 44 features a bunch of Idols, X-Factorers and judges and is at 16th.


LW TW artist / album label power index % change
— 3 TEGAN & SARA WARNER BROS. 44,619 —
4 13 GRAMMY NOMINEES 2013 CAPITOL 23,216 -42%
— 14 COLTON DIXON 19/SPARROW 22,024 —
43 47 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 8,842 -7%

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  • Anny_nanny


    LOL Is it new nickname Edith Piaf?

  • jpfan2

    GGG broke into the top 50 on HAC. The stations that added yesterday are playing it plus Boston.  Of course Triple A and HAC are small formats so it’ll take a long time for radio to affect sales. Still radio is key so it’s a good start.

    I’m seeing videos of other Idols I like debuting new songs but if radio won’t play them the songs just want find an audience.

  • Kirsten

    LOL Is it new nickname Edith Piaf?

    LOL. He’s dueting with a rice dish. If I tell you it was 5 am in the morning when I wrote that, will the gods of music forgive me? Sorry, Edith, you are a legend.

    I’ll fix that.

    I’d like to know what they are at this moment believe – in these places do not buy the AI-contestants.

    Sometimes, I think HDD is playing with our heads and has all the numbers Monday morning. They just spool them out for hits and get people riled up with partial numbers. So, why not have updates with only three artists changing. Maybe the companies revise numbers for just one artists because of a glitch in their system? IDK.

  • springboard2

    Mediabase – Tuesday update:
    8  9  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  357  405  -48  1.524
    -3  Spins
    -2  Bullet
    +0.035  AI
    31  31  VICCI MARTINEZ  Come Along f/CeeLo Green  121  113  8  0.695
    0  Spins
    -1  Bullet
    +0.008  AI
    52  33  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Gone, Gone, Gone  107  56  51  0.536
    +8  Spins
    +9  Bullet
    +0.009  AI
    1  1  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  2109  2028  81  15.521
    +44  Spins
    +19  Bullet
    +0.279  AI
    7  6  CARLY RAE JEPSEN  Call Me Maybe  1327  1347  -20  10.141
    -43  Spins
    -69  Bullet
    -0.167  AI
    12  9  KELLY CLARKSON  Catch My Breath  1008  764  244  7.997
    +25  Spins
    -17  Bullet
    +0.413  AI
    11  12  OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN  Good Time  752  808  -56  4.032
    -16  Spins
    -25  Bullet
    -0.078  AI
    39  40  CHRIS MANN  Roads  35  35  0  0.062
    -2  Spins
    -2  Bullet
    -0.002  AI
    49  43  CASSADEE POPE  Over You  24  11  13  0
    0  Spins
    -4  Bullet
    0  AI
    40  45  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  189  207  -18  0.49
    -4  Spins
    -7  Bullet
    -0.048  AI
    10  10  CARRIE UNDERWOOD  Two Black Cadillacs  4683  4607  76  37.411
    -5  Spins
    -18  Bullet
    -0.03  AI
    16  15  CASEY JAMES  Crying On A Suitcase  3331  3214  117  27.665
    +52  Spins
    +72  Bullet
    +0.08  AI
    33  32  KELLY CLARKSON  Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill  1171  1046  125  7.505
    +8  Spins
    +25  Bullet
    -0.19  AI
    4  5  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  4021  4138  -117  29.167
    -53  Spins
    -46  Bullet
    -0.469  AI
    7  6  KELLY CLARKSON  Catch My Breath  3818  3482  336  29.302
    +54  Spins
    +33  Bullet
    +0.543  AI
    28  26  VICCI MARTINEZ  Come Along f/CeeLo Green  738  681  57  3.461
    +5  Spins
    +1  Bullet
    -0.03  AI
    52  46  OLLY MURS  Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  167  64  103  0.686
    +16  Spins
    +12  Bullet
    +0.075  AI
    42  47  ONE DIRECTION  Little Things  159  221  -62  0.605
    -14  Spins
    -10  Bullet
    -0.045  AI
    18  17  KELLY CLARKSON  Catch My Breath  5443  5310  133  35.083
    -22  Spins
    -124  Bullet
    -0.22  AI
    24  21  OLLY MURS  Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  3271  2673  598  22.331
    +43  Spins
    -95  Bullet
    +0.469  AI
    22  27  ONE DIRECTION  Little Things  1856  4100  -2244  10.816
    -265  Spins
    +61  Bullet
    -1.378  AI
    39  28  ONE DIRECTION  Kiss You  1831  678  1153  9.262
    +146  Spins
    +48  Bullet
    +0.393  AI
    38  34  MARCUS CANTY  Used By You  566  481  85  1.711
    +31  Spins
    +30  Bullet
    +0.109  AI
    Urban AC:
    16  16  FANTASIA  Lose To Win  513  468  45  3.12
    +9  Spins
    -4  Bullet
    +0.014  AI
    32  39  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  56  69  -13  0.156
    +1  Spins
    +5  Bullet
    0  AI
    11  9  CARRIE UNDERWOOD  Two Black Cadillacs  666  608  58  2.063
    +15  Spins
    +13  Bullet
    +0.072  AI
    48  49  CASEY JAMES  Crying On A Suitcase  85  93  -8  0.291
    0  Spins
    0  Bullet
    -0.005  AI
    Canada-Hot AC:
    5  7  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  894  926  -32  3.251
    -18  Spins
    -21  Bullet
    -0.037  AI
    7  8  KELLY CLARKSON  Catch My Breath  888  846  42  2.328
    +6  Spins
    -6  Bullet
    +0.007  AI
    26  29  ONE DIRECTION  Little Things  354  404  -50  1.21
    -21  Spins
    -29  Bullet
    -0.012  AI
    34  31  OLLY MURS  Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  339  258  81  1.726
    +11  Spins
    -1  Bullet
    +0.036  AI
    Canada-Main AC:
    1  1  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  402  411  -9  3.413
    -1  Spins
    0  Bullet
    +0.171  AI
    9  6  KELLY CLARKSON  Catch My Breath  242  213  29  1.403
    +4  Spins
    -2  Bullet
    +0.022  AI
    6  7  OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN  Good Time  235  230  5  1.787
    +4  Spins
    +7  Bullet
    +0.036  AI
    29  30  KELLY CLARKSON  Dark Side  77  84  -7  0.834
    -5  Spins
    -4  Bullet
    -0.052  AI
    35  38  ONE DIRECTION  Little Things  58  60  -2  0.409
    +1  Spins
    -3  Bullet
    -0.003  AI
    Canada-Top 40:
    26  20  OLLY MURS  Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  697  519  178  3.4
    +29  Spins
    +13  Bullet
    +0.06  AI
    27  29  PHILLIP PHILLIPS  Home  476  517  -41  2.623
    -3  Spins
    +9  Bullet
    -0.015  AI
    34  33  KELLY CLARKSON  Catch My Breath  377  399  -22  1.444
    -3  Spins
    +6  Bullet
    -0.031  AI
    36  41  ONE DIRECTION  Little Things  221  297  -76  0.694
    -12  Spins
    -4  Bullet
    -0.024  AI
    58  42  ONE DIRECTION  Kiss You  209  109  100  1.093
    +23  Spins
    +13  Bullet
    +0.08  AI
    Christian AC:
    17  17  COLTON DIXON  You Are  490  444  46  1.705
    +5  Spins
    +3  Bullet
    +0.009  AI

  • springboard2

    2/5/2013 – Itunes Top 1500 Singles and Albums (from LivePopBars)
    20. Phillip Phillips – Home
    24. Kelly Clarkson – Catch My Breath
    33. Olly Murs – Troublemaker (feat. Flo Rida)
    45. Carrie Underwood – Two Black Cadillacs
    81. One Direction – Little Things
    93. One Direction – Kiss You
    96. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    97. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    132. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    152. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen – Good Time
    162. Colton Dixon – You Are
    175. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    176. Casey James – Crying On a Suitcase
    177. Cher Lloyd – Want U Back
    197. Tate Stevens – Holler If You’re With Me
    198. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    213. Carrie Underwood – Good Girl
    241. Christina Aguilera & Blake Shelton – Just a Fool
    244. Journey – Don’t Stop Believin’
    247. Cher Lloyd – Oath (feat. Becky G)
    300. Kelly Clarkson – Don’t Rush (feat. Vince Gill)
    312. One Direction – One Thing
    401. Vicci Martinez & Cee Lo Green – Come Along
    404. One Direction – Rock Me
    448. One Direction – Kiss You
    464. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    467. Journey – Faithfully
    483. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    514. Kelly Clarkson – Because of You
    591. Kelly Clarkson – Dark Side
    594. One Direction – She’s Not Afraid
    615. One Direction – Nobody Compares
    658. Carly Rae Jepsen – This Kiss
    663. One Direction – Little Things
    669. Mandisa & tobyMac – Good Morning (feat. TobyMac)
    684. One Direction – They Don’t Know About Us
    695. Kelly Clarkson – Since U Been Gone
    721. Journey – Open Arms
    790. Carrie Underwood – Cowboy Casanova
    802. One Direction – Heart Attack
    849. One Direction – Still the One
    922. Carly Rae Jepsen – This Kiss
    947. Carrie Underwood – Jesus, Take the Wheel
    1042. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    1079. Cher Lloyd – Swagger Jagger
    1164. Kelly Clarkson – Mr. Know It All
    1175. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    1188. Olly Murs – Heart Skips a Beat (feat. Chiddy Bang)
    1247. Carrie Underwood – Undo It
    1269. One Direction – Moments
    1280. One Direction – Up All Night
    1298. One Direction – Loved You First
    1321. One Direction – I Would
    1397. Journey – Separate Ways (Worlds Apart)
    1461. Journey – Any Way You Want It
    1485. Cher Lloyd – With Ur Love

    19. Colton Dixon – A Messenger
    42. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    54. Journey – Journey: Greatest Hits
    57. Phillip Phillips – The World from the Side of the Moon (Deluxe)
    63. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    72. One Direction – Take Me Home
    99. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    147. Kelly Clarkson – Greatest Hits – Chapter One
    230. Phillip Phillips – The World from the Side of the Moon
    242. Cher Lloyd – Sticks & Stones
    354. One Direction – Up All Night
    407. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (Deluxe Version)
    469. Daughtry – Daughtry
    627. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    663. Cassadee Pope – The Complete Season 3 Collection (The Voice Performance)
    704. Carrie Underwood – Play On
    719. Carly Rae Jepsen – Kiss (Deluxe Version)
    877. Casey James – Casey James
    985. Journey – Journey – Greatest Hits 1 & 2
    1009. Carrie Underwood – Some Hearts
    1062. Scotty McCreery – Clear As Day
    1331. Olly Murs – Right Place Right Time (Deluxe Version)
    1343. Carrie Underwood – Carnival Ride
    1361. Daughtry – Break the Spell (Deluxe Version)

  • Anny_nanny

    Pilaf – this is true, we have evening and I missed my lunch.

    I present them to the system: ledger,  abacus and steel pens – and all around count. LOL

  • jpfan2

    63 48 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Gone, Gone, Gone 107 37 70 0.435

  • windmills

    Reporting from Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck:

    There was 1 recurrent at Billboard this week (Faith Hill’s American Heart: that’s 2 consecutive attempted lead singles from her that didn’t crack t25) and 4 Mediabase recurrents (2 that helped Idols: Zac Brown Band helped CaseyJ and Kelly, Faith Hill dropped below Kelly before going recurrent). This coming week there will be at least 1 recurrent at Billboard: Randy Houser’s How Country Feels. There may be a 2nd depending on whether Dierks Bentley continues to drop this week and Billboard ignores his bullet from this week because he had an AI drop. Randy Houser will also go recurrent at Mediabase/Aircheck along with Thomas Rhett and Eli Young Band (but neither of those 2 will help any Idols).

    Carrie’s Two Black Cadillacs had a meh week at Billboard gaining 758k and holding at #10. It did outgain the 3 songs ahead of it and also Hunter’s song behind it. Pretty simple explanation for 2BC’s slowdown: Arista Nashville is pushing Carrie’s labelmate Brad Paisley’s Southern Comfort Zone to as high a peak as possible. Not the first time Arista has borrowed spins from one of its acts to boost another for a week or two, won’t be the last.

    This is clearly the final week for the Brad push: Arista Nashville has released an acoustic version of his single to radio (which is really good BTW), Brad is doing radio interviews, and the label also took out a “power up for #1” ad in the Aircheck email. I actually don’t see SCZ getting to #1 but, it should get a #2 peak on both charts and then crash next week. We should also see 2BC take off next week, probably starting Sunday once SCZ crashes. The annoying thing about the label stalling 2BC is it’s allowed Blake’s crappy Sure Be Cool If You Did to close to about 3.440 million AIs behind.

    But all other signs for 2BC are strong: it’s selling ahead of airplay ranking, it’s a young song, the callout has trended up, it actually had the strongest week in the t10 on the Billboard Indicator chart (the small station chart that is relatively unmanipulated, and can be a harbinger of what will happen on the main chart), and 2BC is moving smoothly up on the (also relatively unmanipulated) Canada Country chart too. As far as where 2BC will end the week, even another meh week should put it ahead of Randy Houser. Dierks Bentley looks like he may have peaked after being pushed last week so it’s possible he will drop below 2BC. I’m not counting on that though and figure 2BC will end the week at #9. 

    2BC also had a meh week at Mediabase/Aircheck gaining 438 points. It did gain a little on the 3 songs ahead of it (Dierks Bentley, Randy Houser who’s headed to recurrency, and Taylor Swift). 2BC now trails Dierks by 539 points which is a pretty easy gap to close but again, it depends on how much the Brad push affects 2BC this week. It also looks like Taylor’s being kept alive to try to get a t5 peak so I don’t think 2BC (which trails it by 1502 points) will pass Begin Again this week. I see 2BC ending the week at #9, possibly #8 Mediabase/Aircheck.

    CaseyJ’s Crying On A Suitcase had a solid week at Billboard gaining 869k and holding at #15. Here’s how its t10 prospects look after a week: Jason/Luke/Eric look like they’ll crash hard and could go recurrent at Billboard in 2 weeks. Gary Allan has peaked. Brad is going to peak this week and likely crash hard next week. Dierks looks like he is going to cooperate with COAS, because Tip It On Back looks like it has peaked. So, that’s 4 spots that could open up in 3 weeks. Now CaseyJ needs Taylor to peak, ideally this week. Right now it doesn’t look like she’ll cooperate but, Begin Again is on its way down on the Country Indicator chart. There’s also the issue of the new Kenny Chesney single Pirate Flag, which debuted at #22 this week. I don’t know if COAS can hold it off for 3 weeks unless the label gets involved (they’re on the same label so anything’s possible, but the label is also going to want Pirate Flag to be in a good position when Kenny’s album comes out at the end of April). Lady Antebellum may also be only 2-3 weeks from passing. So, I’m still not loving COAS’s t10 chances but, may as well hang in there and see if things work out. COAS should end the week at #14. 

    At MB/Aircheck COAS gained 541 points. Miranda looks like she’s a good 4 weeks away from passing so Lady A is the biggest current threat to pass within the next 2-3 weeks. The MB recurrent situation will see COAS move up a spot to #14 at the end of this week, then move up another spot next week when Gary Allan goes recurrent, and then have the opportunity to take advantage of 2 more recurrent spots in 2 weeks when Jason/Luke/Eric and Brad go recurrent. That gets him to #11 IF Lady A and/or Kenny don’t pass. 

    Kelly’s Don’t Rush had a meh week gaining 250k AIs at Billboard and dropping a spot to #32. Kenny Chesney debuted in front and Eric Church passed. Darius Rucker also closed to 248k AIs behind by outgaining DR by 685k so Wagon Wheel is likely to pass this week. That’ll be offset by Randy Houser going recurrent. Jake Owen is also starting to close (trails Kelly by 785k after outgaining her by 261k) but likely won’t pass this week. Kip Moore is also closing but is also likely 2 weeks from passing. I see DR holding at #32 this week. FWIW it has been in the Indicator t30 for the last couple weeks so I still think it’ll make t30. 

    At MB/Aircheck DR held at #32 and gained 194 points. Kenny Chesney, Lady Antebellum, Eric Church, and Jana Kramer passed but that was offset by Thomas Rhett and Eli Young Band dropping below DR and 2 recurrents. Darius Rucker’s Wagon Wheel now trails by 543 points after outgaining DR by 564 points so he is tracking to pass this week (which would be offset by Randy Houser going recurrent). Kip Moore and Jake Owen look to be weeks away from passing so DR could make t30 in 2 weeks and pick up those countdown spins. 

    Idol-related ads: None

    Recommended read: The lead article in Billboard previews the upcoming Country Radio Seminar (it’s a 3 day conference that’s expanded into about 5 days of events where radio comes to Nashville and the labels schmooze programmers, showcase their rosters, etc.). CRS is going to grapple with the issue of country radio’s audience and the style of music that attracts that audience. There’s talk about demographics: there’s going to be a panel about “younger country fans,” i.e., the 18-34 demo, and some consideration of possibly splitting the format into stations targeting 18-34 year olds (like CHR/Pop) and stations targeting 25-54 year olds (like Hot AC), though the people quoted seem to be against fragmenting the format. There’s also a LOLzy reference in the article to Blake’s recent “old farts” and “jackasses” comment.Check out the contortions involved in this sentence to try not to make Blake look bad:

    Blake Shelton unintentionally waded into the middle of the upheaval when comments he made on a GAC special about moving the music forward were taken out of context and turned into a controversy that had him calling older country fans “old farts” and “assholes.”

    I don’t know how context could possibly have made “old farts” and “jackasses” seem any less offensive, but OK then! The article, written by Tom Roland, shares the point of view that it’s “critics and older fans” who are upset about traditional country acts being pushed out, and those people can just rely on the Internet to find the music they prefer. You don’t hear that from any of the industry people quoted, though there is a PD who talks about a newer stable of stars pushing out the older generation of stars and some “evergreen” titles.

  • Caro3278sweet

    rista Nashville is pushing Carrie’s labelmate Brad Paisley’s Southern Comfort Zone to as high a peak as possible.

    I have to admit, I actively hate Paisely’s SCZ. And I’m a big Brad fan too. Oh, well. To each his own. 

    I’m still not loving COAS’s t10 chances but, may as well hang in there and see if things work out. 

    Hey, for me, anything over t15 is gravy. It would be super duper if COAS could get to #11. I would be more than happy with that.

    I’m ready for the next single. From the chatter around CJland, it looks like it’s going to be Drive. Yeah, chatter is chatter, but there are some pretty good sources tied into CJ himself, so my bet is Drive. And man, that would be one fabulous song to hear on the radio come summer. 

  • Mateja Praznik

    Now available on iTunes USA: Little Mix – Wings

  • http://twitter.com/Mich_in_Colo Michelle

    Wow!  That is an amazing analysis! I hope that with Kenny and Casey James being on the same label, Sony will push for Casey to stay ahead of Kenny for an extra week if it means COAS gets to #10.  If it’s a difference between #11 and #12 it probably does not matter as much. Maybe it will depend on how many spots Kenny would have to stay back in order to keep behind Casey. Come on, Sony!!!

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    Thanks, Windmills…I usually think of myself as reasonably intelligent, but I just can’t understand why radio can’t do both–play the pop/rock country and traditional sounding.  I much prefer not hearing the same songs played over and over and over…

  • http://twitter.com/Mich_in_Colo Michelle

    Windmills – I am more of a new country person myself.  That is why I prefer listening to Sirius.  They have the Highway for new country and a few other stations like Willie’s place and Outlaw country for More traditional country.  Makes sense to me to split it out.

  • windmills

    Michelle: Windmills – I am more of a new country person myself.  That is why I prefer listening to Sirius.  They have the Highway for new country and a few other stations like Willie’s place and Outlaw country for More traditional country.  Makes sense to me to split it out.

    Satellite radio has the luxury of splitting stations because it is based on a subscription model and their incentive is to provide specialized programming to attract as many unique subscribers as possible. Terrestrial radio is ad-based so the incentive is to maximize the audience for each individual station. Splitting into more specialized stations is less likely unless the owners know they would get higher ad revenue in total from the split audience (which is possible if there are enough demo-specific targeted products buying in, but obviously owners don’t think we’re at that point yet). 

  • Mike M

    Casey James should change the name of “Crying on a Suitcase” to “The Barnacle Song.” That thing rose to Top 20, attached itself and refused to go away. There have been many times I thought it was done, but it always bounced back, and now it’s up to 15 and still hanging in there. Good for him. Absolutely no doubt he’ll get a third single from the album. I know most fans seem to want “Drive” next, so I hope that’s what it is.

    By the way, Casey was on Fox 17 Tennessee Mornings last week singing a great acoustic version of COAS. He mentioned that he has a new home in Texas and had his first big Christmas celebration there this year. He told the host he decorated like the Griswolds. When he turned his lights on, all the lights in the city dimmed. Seemed very happy, and that was great to see.

  • jpfan2

    Serious question because I know nothing about country. COAS went to #10 on the country charts but hasn’t doen much to push the album (or even go gold as a single). Is that common for country artists? Do they have to pay their dues first?

    Usually if a Pop single did that well on Pop radio it would at least go platinum.

  • SaSa8

    Thanks Windmills. 
    I am happy for Casey James and hope he can make it higher on charts but I have to be honest and say I am ready for COAS to go and to get a new song from him.  Brad Paisley’s SCZ has really grown on me and I like it and hope it gets to #1.  Interesting how the label goes about pushing a certain song, but they all do it don’t they.  Hope Brad can get there.  His last song, Camoflauge, didn’t do that well. 

  • ptebwwong

    It depends on the country artist. Some artists are more single sellers than album sellers (Ex. Blake). Also, recently more country pop artists are having platinum singles/albums. For example, many of Brad Paisley’s singles have been top 10 or even #1, but he has very few platinum singles & many of his albums haven’t gone platinum even with multiple #1 hits. Another example is Chris Young had multiple consecutive #1’s on the same album. The album hasn’t sold platinum yet.

    Also, many songs with their highest peak at the top 11-20 range on Billboard Country don’t sell enough to achieve gold. Obviously, there are artists who do like Scotty or Hunter Hayes 1st single “Storm Warning.” But many of their fanbase buys singles from iTunes. Recently, artists that peak at that range are Craig Morgan, Trace Adkins, Darius Rucker, Jerrod Niemann, etc. Their singles all didn’t even sell gold.

  • windmills

    jpfan2: Serious question because I know nothing about country. COAS went to #10 on the country charts but hasn’t done much to push the album (or even go gold as a single). Is that common for country artists? Do they have to pay their dues first?
    Usually if a Pop single did that well on Pop radio it would at least go platinum.

    COAS hasn’t gone to #10 on country radio though. The highest it has gone is #14. 

    It usually takes multiple hits for new country acts to catch on but even then, some people catch on at higher sales levels than others. Look at Hunter Hayes: his album sales didn’t really start catching on until about 10 or 11 months after it was released. Kip Moore has done decently, selling more than 266k albums since April off a #1 hit (which has sold well over platinum) and a #3 hit (which hasn’t gone gold). Dustin Lynch has sold 110k albums since August off a #3 hit and a single that’s at #25 (and that’s an early favorite for the worst single of 2013). The #3 hit has sold over 700k downloads. Jana Kramer’s lead single peaked at #3 and went gold but her album had only sold 61k copies in its 1st 3 months out (June to September 2012) and hasn’t been selling much since then. 

    Considering LDCIAN and COAS haven’t gotten nearly as high on the country charts, CaseyJ’s album sales don’t look terrible next to that (they don’t look great but they’re not terrible). I also don’t think COAS’s total download sales look terrible for a t15 country hit but, it should be selling better on a weekly basis now if it wants to show some momentum that could lead it it becoming a t10 hit. 

    CHR songs get way higher AI at comparable chart positions to country songs so they should sell more.

  • tripp_ncwy

    HDD Final:

    #13 Grammy Nominees 2013 23,216
    #14 Colton Dixon 22,104
    #20 One Direction  17,022
    #26 Phillip Phillips
    #33 Maroon 5 13,760
    #35 Carrie Underwood 13,334


  • Anny_nanny

    LW TW artist / album label power index % change
    — 1 JUSTIN BIEBER ISLAND/IDJ 211,039 —
    — 2 ANDREA BOCELLI VERVE 92,799 —
    — 3 TEGAN & SARA WARNER BROS. 44,619 —
    — 4 CHARLIE WILSON RCA 42,151 —
    4 13 GRAMMY NOMINEES 2013 CAPITOL 23,216 -42%
    — 14 COLTON DIXON 19/SPARROW 22,024 —
    15 20 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 17,022 -13%
    16 26 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 15,669 -19%
    24 32 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 CAPITOL 14,438 -10%
    43 47 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 8,842 -7%

  • LongKissGoodnight

    #14 Colton Dixon 22,104

    Really solid debut for Colton if this numbers hold.
    Way to go!

  • justmefornow

    I agree. Even though I’m not a fan, that’s a solid number for a niche market opening. Congrats.
    Funny, when James opened with 28,000 on an Indie label, also in a niche market, people where calling him a loser ;)

    Now if Colton can sucessfully tour like James did, hopefully he can also sell over 150k eventually.

  • jpfan2

    P2’s album sales are reflecting the loss in CHR airplay of Home. While touring is great for the pocketbook, P2 will need GGG to hit big on the radio. Of course, a reappearance on Idol will help as well.  A few additional TV gigs promoting GGG wouldn’t hurt either. Hopefully he’ll get to reappear on Ellen, Leno, Kimmel, etc. with the new single. 

    Assuming the worst (GGG not doing much), I think album sales of 700K or so and a single selling 4xplat is enough to insure a 2nd album for Phil.

  • girlygirltoo

    That’s a pretty decent 1st week for Colton 

  • LongKissGoodnight

    The (somewhat amusing) thing is Home took such a long freaking time to peak, that Phillip already used up what 3(?) televised performances of GGG (Today show,  Jimmy Kimmel, Ellen) well in advance of it actual release to the radio.
    And it’s my understanding that they do not invite you to perform the same song twice.

  • chessguy99

    Good for Colton, 22K is good for any type of debut these days, but exceptional for a new CCM artist. Especially one who hasn’t toured to build up a base.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Theoretically speaking, if there won’t be another hit from the album I think with Idol performance and Home’s strong recurrent & AC radioplay album will go past 800K and eventually sizzle up somewhere in 820K department.

    But I am fairly sure that GGG will develop in a crossover hit going on smash (top 10 AAA & HAC, 20-15 on POP, 40-30 on Alternative), will eventually sell 2 – 3 million and help push album over a million mark (especially if they hold on Idol performance until GGG is near it’s digital peak).

    And that’s not as much a fan in me speaking, as experience and reasonably well tune intuition when it comes to alt.rock. I have correctly predicted all alt.rock crossover hits and smashes of 2012, so king of hoping to prolong the streak with this one.

    Don’t fail me now, Interscope! %)

  • Lobilobi

    i hope you’re right LongKissGoodnight, i also think Interscope will not fail you now lol

  • TheOther

    I don’t see why Phillip won’t get one of the prime spots for his Idol comeback and be presented with his Gold for TWFTSOTM and 4x Platinum for Home. Of course the big push is if GGG becomes the boot song.

    But It’s radio that will ultimately be the driver, like it was for Home. The Olympics gave Home a push but it was radio that help build a long shelf life.

    The tour is good opprotunity for Phillip to gain new fans (and sales) outside of the bubble. Interscope has never been short of great promotion for Phillip.

  • Trina

    James finished higher than Colton and released at a better time when CD sales are generally stronger. And his chart position was much lower. #14 is really great.  Doesnt rock pretty much sell better overall than CCM anyway? Oh well whatever. I’m over all the season 10 comparisons that never seem to end.  Good for Colton for having a nice start.

  • irockhard

    His chart position was lower because Black Friday week is the most crowded so he had more new releases to compete with. January on the other hand is a pretty dead month.

    And yes rock is a bigger niche than CCM.

  • jpfan2

    LKG I hope your powers of prediction work for GGG!I think your Triple A and HAC predictions for the song are on the money. It’s been a gas following Home and I’m hoping for at least some fun following GGG (and the rest of Phil’s career).

  • justmefornow

    Yeah James’ chart position was lower because it was Black Friday week and a TON of albums came out then. WAAAY more competition. He’s also on an Indie label, isn’t Colton on Sparrow under UMG?

    Anyway, as for Colton’s position, he probably will have the sales of a #2, probably where he should have finished (if they never used the save on Jessica.)

    Just a hunch.

  • irockhard

    LOL well that would be pretty ironic wouldn’t it? But honestly I agree, I’m not expecting Jessica to do any better or even as well. Fact: Time.Kills.Momentum.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    James’ numbers were higher because he released his album on Black Friday. He then had three or four weeks of prime selling season left to add to his opening number.
    A Thanksgiving weekend release versus a release at the end of January has a much bigger advantage.

  • girlygirltoo

    I wouldn’t expect Phillip to get the same type of heavy promotion for GGG that he got for Home. 2nd singles generally have to rely much more on radio play and word of mouth. He’ll get at least 1 appearance on Idol, but he’s touring right now, which will cut down on the amount of time he would have to fly in & out of NY or L.A. to do a lot of nat’l promo.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/HWRPW434YQTROZ3J5E4BSLWEYM H.A.

    Even more impressive for Colton. 

  • justmefornow

    Whatever, since record sales are more of a marathon than a sprint, when Colton reaches 150k we’ll call it a tie ;)
    Seriously though, Colton’s probably going to sell okay. It’s Jessica I think people should worry about. She could very well end up one of the lowest selling runner ups. We’ll see.

  • elliegrll

    GGG is also going to benefit off of the popularity of Home, and hopefully Phillip will too.

  • tripp_ncwy

    Jessica will benefit from the promo tie-in between her Glee appearance coupled with the release of her single/album and appearance on Idol.

  • justmefornow

    We’ll see.
    Just like Haley benefited from her Idol appearance? I’ll bet Haley will end up having better sales than Jessica.

  • Anny_nanny

    She will be first runner-up to perform her first single during the new season of AI. The first comparison that comes to my mind it’s Hayley and we remember number her sale.
    I don’t still think that Jessica was to release the first single BEFORE Christmas. Even if it had not Gold, she had to work on the promo all this time and not pass on the program of protection of witnesses as Melanie. Ugh!
    And I don’t know how many participants Glee released successful albums.

  • elliegrll

    I can’t make a prediction until this song starts getting more airplay.  It’s not like PDs have been falling over themselves to play it.  

    That doesn’t mean that they won’t play it, just that right now everything is ridding on Hot AC PDs giving the song a chance.

  • jpfan2

    Home is still #4 on the HAC chart and as far as I know the official adds date for GGG isn’t until next Tuesday.  Hopefully it’ll have a good adds week as HAC stations stop playing Home and start adding GGG.

    At least that’s what I hope happens. ;0

  • Anny_nanny

    On Phillip:
    I can’t predict what will happen with GGG, but I’m going to wait and see what his mgmt surprise me.

    About Jessica.
    I don’t know her comercial potential, I don’t listen to this kind of music, but I’m sure that all the best songs “for Beyonce” Jay-Z bought for beloved wife earlier, I have no doubt in it. Or, I hope that Jessica receives a minimum advance payment for the album – as I understand the system, her earnings from the album is minimal, she is not the author of the songs, they put a lot of money in her – training, songs, coaches. (LMFAO! Someone should come up with for this kid as should sound like her song, if she listen for the first time. *sarcasm*) And she is not the winner, on promotion of runner-up have not planned a lot of money.
    I’m sorry, she needed was this victory. But I’m not an altruist.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    By the way, GGG had just received it’s first POP add))
    It’s from the station that was spinning it throw the week WIXX-FM – Appleton, WI.

    Next week is gonna be fun!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Whatever, since record sales are more of a marathon than a sprint, when Colton reaches 150k we’ll call it a tie ;)

    I’m not sure what the whatever is about, but you made the comparison, therefore people will add factors to consider when looking at that particular comparison. Why does Colton have to “tie” with James anyhow? Why is it a contest between these two particular contestants?

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    And that’s not as much a fan in me speaking, as experience and reasonably well tune intuition when it comes to alt.rock. I have correctly predicted all alt.rock crossover hits and smashes of 2012, so king of hoping to prolong the streak with this one.

    Really? When and where did you do this, because there have been quite a few crossover hits in 2012. 
    Can you look at the alt. rock chart right now and tell us all the songs that are going to cross over and which ones will smash? I would love to know which ones are going to be big hits.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    Indeed. If Dixon had wanted to compete with rock singers, he could have pursued a contract with a label that specialized in alt-rock, and which would have marketed him to alt-rock radio.

    Similarly, if Durbin had wanted to compete with CCM singers, he could have started writing songs in which Jesus is a head-banger (yes, there is Christian metal) and gone after a CCM deal.

    They both seem better off where they are. (Though the fantasy in which they decide that Casey Abrams is their nemesis and try to invade the Smooth Jazz format could be entertaining in a sick sort of way.)

  • girlygirltoo

    that’s nice, but it is also is a very Idol friendly station. GGG isn’t even being sent for CHR adds, so it will be awhile that it gets many CHR spins (and it may not even crossover to that format). The fou is on HAC & AAA

  • justmefornow

    It’s not. It was a joke. 
    I really don’t care one way or the other about Colton.
    Good luck to him.

  • justmefornow


  • http://twitter.com/tinawinabina Tinawina

    I have nothing against Colton, and I’m sure 22K is good for his market, but let’s get real. It’s 22K. LOL. I wouldn’t be calling this proof positive of his deserved runner up status if it wasn’t for That Darn Jessica! Let’s not get carried away here. Heh.

    This is what Idol spring releases sell like. And this year, everyone not named Phillip sold like butt before we even got this far. All these guys are practically on their own. Colton got 2 songs to get good airplay on Christian Radio so he’s off to a good start at least.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    Colton got 2 songs to get good airplay on Christian Radio so he’s off to a good start at least.

    Um… only if a few promo spins for Never Gone (which was never released to radio at all) counts as “good airplay” for one song… and while Christian AC radio is small and weird, it’s not quite that pathetic. He has one radio single (You Are) in the top 20 of Christian AC, which is the progress he should be making but not a support by itself for more than about 6k in album sales. Both songs got their #1 Christian songs chart position on existing fan base, not from radio play.

    Honestly, with any sort of reasonable radio support, Sanchez should easily outsell Dixon. The level of success required to sell even 100k in R&B or pop (measured in Track Equivalent Albums) is way lower than the level required to sell the same 100k in CCM. 

    Of course, we’ve also seen recent alumni put out perfectly good albums and not come anywhere near 100k (hi, Haley Reinhart!) because the non-radio promo turned out minimal and radio was unenthused about the lead single. I’d like to think Interscope will do better with Sanchez.

    My bet on Dixon to be successful isn’t on absolute sales numbers (he’d have to be a CCM mega-star to come close to rather modest numbers for rock or pop) but on building a firm enough base in his genre to contain the sophomore slump at relatively low levels… which means it’s years before I find out if I’m right or wrong.

  • http://twitter.com/tinawinabina Tinawina

    Oh thanks! I thought I had read something posted here about 2 of his songs getting airplay, thanks for giving me the factual info. Either way getting play on his home format is good news IMO. All of them are going to have to start establishing themselves in their genre immediately in order to get a shot methinks, since no one is gong to get a huge fanbase sales boost besides Phillip. I think 22-25K is all any of them can expect honestly.

    I think Jessica’s fate is not going to lie in promo (she’ll need it of course) as much as it going to lie in a good single. If I had to guess I’d be surprised if  she sold more than 35K the first week. And the longer they wait, the lower that album will debut, since the only people buying that album at first will be idol fans and they drift away with time. What she needs is that first song to be a radio hit.

  • girlygirltoo

    It’s hard for me to predict how Jessica will do. Some people think that tying her album release in with her stint on Glee will give her a real boost. And it may, but I haven’t noticed any of the Glee cast members setting the world on fire saleswise when they put out their own music. So I’m not sure if a l of the people who watch Glee actually care about the actors’ music careers, outside of the covers that they perform on the show.

    Of course, there’s the Idol fanbase. But based on the sales of her Idol EP, can we really say that Jessica has a strong US fanbase from the show? I wonder if she might be way more popular in Asia (esp the Philippines) than she is in the US?

    Of course, until she actually releases some original music, none of these questions can be answered.

  • Anny_nanny

    Colton Dixon Worldwide iTunes Performance | Last update: 2013-02-06

    You Are
    #216 Philippines
    #228 United States
    #262 Lebanon

    Let Them See You
    #212 Philippines

    Where My Heart Goes
    #213 Philippines

    #214 Philippines

    #215 Philippines

    I think tripped information about the forthcoming concert in the Philippines. In the USA the single and the album began to descend. But I’m not follow for Colton, I don’t know would he have some kind of promo for the album in the near future. Has anyone had information?

  • irockhard

    Glee’s ratings are not that great these days and Idol appearances, when they do help, they only help short term. Girl could surprise me but I’m not expecting her to do well at all, late releases hurts the Idols, we’ve seen this with Haley.

  • justmefornow

    I agree 22k of a start isn’t mind blowing. lol. I’m no Colton or Jessica fan so I have no horse in either race.
    P2, Colton and Jessica are the only ones so far from S11 putting out albums, correct, so those are the only 3 from that season to compare sales with each other.Jessica’s EP’s sales can you clue you into her fan base size. Pretty much everyone that sold those EPs outsold her. That doesn’t look good for a runner up.
    When Jessica debuts probably with less than half of Colton’s sales on a major label, his numbers won’t look so bad. 
    So yeah, I do think Colton will outsell her like he was the #2.

  • http://twitter.com/HouswivesHodown Real Housewives News

    Hey did you see that Emblem3 is doing a few shows in CA? Idk if they’re debuting any of their new stuff yet. Also Fifth Harmony will head to the studio at the end of this month.