HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Jan 28-Feb 3

By On 02/05/2013 · 61 Comments · In American Idol, Charts, X Factor

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With 70.38% of reports in, we’ve got an eclectic leader board – a teen sensation, an opera singer and an influential R&B artist. Justin Bieber leads the pack with an acoustic version of his recent album, “Believe”. He can’t be caught with already reported sales of 176K and a prediction that he will sell between 190K and 215K. Next up is Italian Tenor, Andrea Bocelli with his 14th studio album. This one features Mediterranean love songs and former Idol judge JLo (plus a “virtual duet” with Édith Piaf. I love Édith, I don’t love duets with dead people). Finally, in the top 3 is Charlie Wilson who celebrated his 60th birthday by releasing “Love, Charlie”.

Last week’s number 1, Gary Allan takes the 4th slot with “Set You Free”. Bruno Mars holds steady at 5th, Taylor moves up to 6th and the Grammy nominees slide down to 7th (album includes tracks by Idols Kelly Clarkson and Carly Rae Jepsen). The top 10 is rounded out by the “Pitch Perfect” soundtrack, another Kidz Bop album and a debut from Indie Rockers and twins Tegan and Sara.

Not far behind is the winner of his season, Phil Phillips at 21st and One Direction’s “Take Me Home” at 22nd (they also have their first album “Up All Night” at 43rd). Carrie Underwood’s “Blown Away” is at 31st and Kelly Clarkson’s Greatest Hits is at 34. Representing the Voice is first season winner, Adam Levine whose band’s “Overexposed” is at 38th. Now 44 features a bunch of Idols, X-Factorers and judges and is at 16th.

NOW IN: FINAL

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
– 1 JUSTIN BIEBER ISLAND/IDJ 211,039 –
BELIEVE ACOUSTIC
– 2 ANDREA BOCELLI VERVE 92,799 –
PASSIONE
– 3 TEGAN & SARA WARNER BROS. 44,619 –
HEARTTHROB
– 4 CHARLIE WILSON RCA 42,151 –
LOVE, CHARLIE
4 13 GRAMMY NOMINEES 2013 CAPITOL 23,216 -42%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
– 14 COLTON DIXON 19/SPARROW 22,024 –
A MESSENGER
15 20 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 17,022 -13%
TAKE ME HOME
16 26 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 15,669 -19%
WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON
24 32 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 CAPITOL 14,438 -10%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
36 35 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 13,334 29%
BLOWN AWAY
43 47 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 8,842 -7%
GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • girlygirltoo

    that’s nice, but it is also is a very Idol friendly station. GGG isn’t even being sent for CHR adds, so it will be awhile that it gets many CHR spins (and it may not even crossover to that format). The fou is on HAC & AAA

  • justmefornow

    It’s not. It was a joke. 
    I really don’t care one way or the other about Colton.
    Good luck to him.

  • justmefornow

    lol.

  • http://twitter.com/tinawinabina Tinawina

    I have nothing against Colton, and I’m sure 22K is good for his market, but let’s get real. It’s 22K. LOL. I wouldn’t be calling this proof positive of his deserved runner up status if it wasn’t for That Darn Jessica! Let’s not get carried away here. Heh.

    This is what Idol spring releases sell like. And this year, everyone not named Phillip sold like butt before we even got this far. All these guys are practically on their own. Colton got 2 songs to get good airplay on Christian Radio so he’s off to a good start at least.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    Colton got 2 songs to get good airplay on Christian Radio so he’s off to a good start at least.

    Um… only if a few promo spins for Never Gone (which was never released to radio at all) counts as “good airplay” for one song… and while Christian AC radio is small and weird, it’s not quite that pathetic. He has one radio single (You Are) in the top 20 of Christian AC, which is the progress he should be making but not a support by itself for more than about 6k in album sales. Both songs got their #1 Christian songs chart position on existing fan base, not from radio play.

    Honestly, with any sort of reasonable radio support, Sanchez should easily outsell Dixon. The level of success required to sell even 100k in R&B or pop (measured in Track Equivalent Albums) is way lower than the level required to sell the same 100k in CCM. 

    Of course, we’ve also seen recent alumni put out perfectly good albums and not come anywhere near 100k (hi, Haley Reinhart!) because the non-radio promo turned out minimal and radio was unenthused about the lead single. I’d like to think Interscope will do better with Sanchez.

    My bet on Dixon to be successful isn’t on absolute sales numbers (he’d have to be a CCM mega-star to come close to rather modest numbers for rock or pop) but on building a firm enough base in his genre to contain the sophomore slump at relatively low levels… which means it’s years before I find out if I’m right or wrong.

  • http://twitter.com/tinawinabina Tinawina

    Oh thanks! I thought I had read something posted here about 2 of his songs getting airplay, thanks for giving me the factual info. Either way getting play on his home format is good news IMO. All of them are going to have to start establishing themselves in their genre immediately in order to get a shot methinks, since no one is gong to get a huge fanbase sales boost besides Phillip. I think 22-25K is all any of them can expect honestly.

    I think Jessica’s fate is not going to lie in promo (she’ll need it of course) as much as it going to lie in a good single. If I had to guess I’d be surprised if  she sold more than 35K the first week. And the longer they wait, the lower that album will debut, since the only people buying that album at first will be idol fans and they drift away with time. What she needs is that first song to be a radio hit.

  • girlygirltoo

    It’s hard for me to predict how Jessica will do. Some people think that tying her album release in with her stint on Glee will give her a real boost. And it may, but I haven’t noticed any of the Glee cast members setting the world on fire saleswise when they put out their own music. So I’m not sure if a l of the people who watch Glee actually care about the actors’ music careers, outside of the covers that they perform on the show.

    Of course, there’s the Idol fanbase. But based on the sales of her Idol EP, can we really say that Jessica has a strong US fanbase from the show? I wonder if she might be way more popular in Asia (esp the Philippines) than she is in the US?

    Of course, until she actually releases some original music, none of these questions can be answered.

  • Anny_nanny

    Colton Dixon Worldwide iTunes Performance | Last update: 2013-02-06

    You Are
    #216 Philippines
    #228 United States
    #262 Lebanon

    Let Them See You
    #212 Philippines

    Where My Heart Goes
    #213 Philippines

    Rise
    #214 Philippines

    Scars
    #215 Philippines

    I think tripped information about the forthcoming concert in the Philippines. In the USA the single and the album began to descend. But I’m not follow for Colton, I don’t know would he have some kind of promo for the album in the near future. Has anyone had information?

  • irockhard

    Glee’s ratings are not that great these days and Idol appearances, when they do help, they only help short term. Girl could surprise me but I’m not expecting her to do well at all, late releases hurts the Idols, we’ve seen this with Haley.

  • justmefornow

    I agree 22k of a start isn’t mind blowing. lol. I’m no Colton or Jessica fan so I have no horse in either race.
    P2, Colton and Jessica are the only ones so far from S11 putting out albums, correct, so those are the only 3 from that season to compare sales with each other.Jessica’s EP’s sales can you clue you into her fan base size. Pretty much everyone that sold those EPs outsold her. That doesn’t look good for a runner up.
    When Jessica debuts probably with less than half of Colton’s sales on a major label, his numbers won’t look so bad. 
    So yeah, I do think Colton will outsell her like he was the #2.

  • http://twitter.com/HouswivesHodown Real Housewives News

    Hey did you see that Emblem3 is doing a few shows in CA? Idk if they’re debuting any of their new stuff yet. Also Fifth Harmony will head to the studio at the end of this month.

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