HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Jan 2-8

By On 01/10/2012 · 39 Comments · In America's Got Talent, American Idol, Charts, The Voice

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With 54.02% of reports received, Adele continues to rule the sales charts. Although, HDD percentages are whack, Adele is shown as selling almost 3 times as much as the second place CD. She is predicted to finish with between 120-130K in sales which is about 2.5 times the amount the second place CD is expected to have. Unreal. Last year, during the equivalent week, Taylor Swift topped the chart with 52K in sales. This will mark Adele’s 15th week at number one (the record for weeks at number one in the Soundscan era is 21 weeks for MC Hammer).

Who are the also-rans that trail in Adele’s wake? Drake is hanging out in second selling numbers that would normally get him a number one in January. Safetysuit has the highest debut of the week in third. Everybody hates Nickelback, but they still manage to find lots of people to buy their CD and are in 4th. Toby Keith and Luke Bryan had particularly good weeks zooming up the chart from 29th and 33rd last week to find themselves 5th and 7th. What happened? Now always sells well and Now 40 is no different and is in 6th. The album features tracks from Kelly Clarkson from Idol and Adam/Christina from The Voice. Lady A is in 8th to celebrate Hillary getting married on the weekend. Rihanna is in 9th and LMFAO rounds out the top 10.

The first solo Idol shows up at 13th. Scotty McCreery’s “Clear as Day” just completed it’s 14th sales week. Country music is all over the chart this week, so that’s currently only good enough for 5th on the Country charts. Next up is Daughtry at 19th and Kelly Clarkson at 21st. Kelly also appears on Jason Aldean’s album which is at 12th. Carrie has a duet on Tony Bennet’s CD which is at 43rd.

The Voice is represented by Maroon 5 at 31 featuring lead singer and judge Adam Levine. Right behind them is Miranda Lambert (former Nashville Star contestant, wife to Voice judge Blake Shelton and Voice mentor for the upcoming season). SuBo is the lone Got Talent on the chart and she is at 44th.

CHART DATE: 01/09/2012
LAST UPDATE: 01/09/2012 11:34:43
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 ADELE 21 90,854
2 2 DRAKE TAKE CARE 33,907
- 3 SAFETYSUIT THESE TIMES 18,444
11 4 NICKELBACK HERE AND NOW 13,748
29 5 TOBY KEITH CLANCY’S TAVERN 11,059
17 6 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 40 VARIOUS ARTISTS 10,915
33 7 LUKE BRYAN TAILGATES & TANLINES 10,884
4 8 LADY ANTEBELLUM OWN THE NIGHT 10,553
9 9 RIHANNA TALK THAT TALK 10,375
7 10 LMFAO SORRY FOR PARTY ROCKING 10,192
…
18 12 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 8,807
23 13 SCOTTY MCCREERY CLEAR AS DAY 8,461
…
27 19 DAUGHTRY BREAK THE SPELL 6,520
…
16 21 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 6,068
…
30 31 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 4,447
– 32 MIRANDA LAMBERT FOUR THE RECORD 4,369
…
– 43 TONY BENNETT DUETS II 3,401
– 44 SUSAN BOYLE SOMEONE TO WATCH OVER ME 3,348
…
– 50 TAYLOR SWIFT SPEAK NOW 2,867

Hits Daily Double Sales

 
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  • LongKissGoodnight

    Yay! for Black Keys. That is their 5th week in top 10. If they keep at that pace they should sail throw the gold mark next week.
    *happy dance*

  • Anonymous

    Wow, 53 pop adds for Kelly today.  I thought that the 30 HAC adds from yesterday was amazing.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_SYFK77IYLRQIVATQ2MJKSW2J7Y Pam

    Today’s adds

    ETA: It seems like I’m having problems posting almost anything that contains a list. Ugh! On the flip side, another big day for Kelly indeed! I think WDKY is going to do very well.

  • Anonymous

    Unofficially CAD has sold about 870K to date, Kelly at 469K and Daughtry at 328K.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks again as always for your analysis, windmills.

    Just as a vague wandering thought… is Bucky’s single on adds yet and if so, is it doing anything?

    Go Kellie!

    Go snowflake!

  • Anonymous

    I’m so happy to see the success of Black Keys. I flove them

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Chris-Cassaday/100000840860401 Chris Cassaday

    Cray girl by eli young band is another one that was on the chart for like 9 months. Thats why if your a fan of a country idol you have to be patient.

  • luly

    Great adds for Kelly. 

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

    Since this is the numbers thread, I thought I’d share this here…

    RT lyn_sewell @ @ScottyMcCreery you’ll not believe it Scotty, your CD is SOLD-OUT in Johannesburg, RSA!

    Of course, I know how much it sold depends on shipped, but still cool…

  • Anonymous

    Sound good to me ,love it but what do you mean CD is SOLD-OUT in ….
    ship it out more now:)

  • mchcat

    I know  a lot of then are completely sold out

  • Anonymous

    sold out where, though? in one store? Unless they barely shipped any copies to South Africa, it’s hard to believe it would be sold out at every available place in a city as big as Johannesburg

  • Incipit

    The music selling biz isn’t in any better shape in SA than it is here, though, with a big downturn in CD and DVD sales. Musica, the largest retailer of music and related entertainment merchandise in the country, has expanded way beyond CD’s and DVD’s into other music related merch – and they are still expected to close at least 10 stores in the 2012 financial year. 

    Perhaps they were just being fiscally cautious w/the original shipment – Initially, in July of 2011, they responded to an inquiry about DavidC’s TLM with the news that it was available in ‘one’ of their stores in Johannesburg, and in the process of being scanned into others. So it depends on how many available places there were to start with.

    No doubt, if there’s a demand, CAD will also be restocked. IMO. anyway. ;)

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_AGWO435FL6UN2ICRVTFLWRJZSA Lexie

    I honestly had little idea…thought it was neat when I saw the tweet.  I do know I have seen a number of SA fans on Scotty’s Facebook.  I would assume they would restock, too (even though it’s been 3 weeks for my local Walmart…what’s taking so long?:)) 

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