HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Jan 16-22

By On 01/24/2012 · 155 Comments · In American Idol, Charts, The Voice

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With 54.02% of the market reporting in, Adele continues to rule supreme. There is no doubt that she will hit number one for her 17th week. If her “Set Fire To The Rain” single can nab number one on the Hot 100 this week, she will set another milestone. As the posters at Pulse pointed out, she will be the first artist to have her first three singles go number one the same week her album is number one on the BB200. The woman is beast, but I don’t think that she would be easily duplicated (I’m looking at you lazy A&R execs).

Everybody else is an also-ran. The ever popular Kidz Bop is set to be the top debut of the week. Isn’t that the project that Kris Allen was involved in? If features a cover of the Adam/Christina song “Moves Like Jagger”. Next up is Toby Keith who is making noise with his novelty song “Red Solo Cup”. The album kind of faltered after it’s release, but the single is really supporting sales. Those wily Canadians Drake and Nickelback round out the top 5 at 4th and 5th respectively.

Rihanna is 6th with “Talk that Talk”. Now 40 is the latest in the compilation album series and is at 7th. It features Kelly’s “Mr. Know it All” and that Adam/Christina “Moves Like Jagger” duet. Young Jeezy is 8th, Luke Bryan is 9th (his latest single currently tops the country charts) and those loveable goofballs, LFMAO are at 10th.

Our first Idol shows up at 11th. Original Recipe Idol, Kelly Clarkson is also showing that a good single moves units. Right behind her is Jason Aldean’s “My Kinda Party” which features a duet with Kelly Clarkson. Right behind him is our latest Idol winner, Scotty McCreery. The final Idol on the Chart is Daughtry at 25th. There aren’t a lot of units being sold, so a few thousand differences in sales can mean a lot of spots.

A final mention goes to Maroon 5 whose album also features that Adam/Christina duet “Moves Like Jagger” (and Adam himself).

CHART DATE: 01/23/2012
LAST UPDATE: 01/23/2012 11:43:09
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 ADELE 21 43,406
– 2 KIDZ BOP KIDZ BOP 21 28,646
12 3 TOBY KEITH CLANCY’S TAVERN 13,038
4 4 DRAKE TAKE CARE 10,493
8 5 NICKELBACK HERE AND NOW 10,309
7 6 RIHANNA DEF TALK THAT TALK 9,193
10 7 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 40 VARIOUS ARTISTS 8,797
6 8 YOUNG JEEZY DEF TM 103: HUSTLER AMBITION 8,730
21 9 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL TAILGATES & TANLINES 8,377
17 10 LMFAO SORRY FOR PARTY ROCKING 7,724
…
11 13 KELLY CLARKSON STRONGER 6,801
23 14 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 6,733
34 15 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CLEAR AS DAY 6,559
…
36 25 DAUGHTRY BREAK THE SPELL 4,272
…
35 29 MAROON 5 HANDS ALL OVER 4,116
…
5 50 SNOW PATROL FALLEN EMPIRES 1,351

Hits Daily Double Sales

 
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  • Anonymous

    It’s not. No more than Trespassing is late due to problems with Adam or producer problems

    They aren’t equivalent, though.

    1) LTT had singles with longer legs than FYE in the states (I’m aware that FYE spun out more singles abroad).
    2) Releasing in Q4 is a long-standing industry rationale for holding an album (RCA did it with Kings of Leon as well); releasing in Q1 is not. 
    3) Daughtry is rock, Lambert is pop.  

    I don’t think 4 months mattered very much to BTS; if anything, it helped goose sales.  It may not end up mattering to Trespassing either, but the parameters are different.  That’s the point I’m making.  

  • Mateja Praznik

    I’m always amazed looking at CHR TOP 40 chart. It’s incredible when you do the math and realize that #1 song gets 13+ spins on average from one station every day. The playlists must be very short and controlled. It’s hard to even call it radio, more like a free jukebox when you can always guess which song will get played next.

    Here in Slovenia, we don’t have radio formats. All stations play a mix of music from all genres and eras. At least you can call it radio, even though I don’t like that either. I grew up listening to a station that literally repeats the same old evergreens each day or so. To make things worse, it’s national radio channel.
    There are no stations that would play only current music or focus only on a certain genre. Some commercial stations might repeat the same song a couple of times per day and get criticized for it. People also complain that our radio stations are stuck in the 80s.

    I do think that having limited playlists and playing the same songs several times per day helps sell music, but 13 plays per day seems too extreme. I tried listening to some American radio stations over the internet a few days ago and it got boring fast. I just don’t understand why are these radio corporations doing this?

  • Anonymous

    whats the difference between HDD estimates and Soundscan? 

    is soundscan what actually happened?

  • Anonymous

    is soundscan what actually happened?

    Yes.  HDD surveys a select group of retailers, and comes up with an estimate.

  • breakdown

    I think artists tour for a variety of reasons. To please their fanbase for sure but they may also reach a new audience who may be impressed by live performances and therefore buy their music. There is also money in it. They don’t make much off of record sales, especially if they don’t have songwriting credits. There’s the instant gratification factor too. Most musicians live to perform. 

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