HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Jan 14-20

With Monday being MLK and inauguration day, HDD did not release any album sales estimates. We should get the entire report today here.

Billboard predicts that A$AP Rocky will have the top album of the week with the 23rd edition of Kids Bopz nipping at his heels. Okay, those ankle biters aren’t even close. A$AP will hip-hop to 140K in sales while the kids are bopping to 65K.

HDD has actors pretending to be singers (“Les Miz”) at third with 40-45K and then a trio of artists selling 35-40K: Bruno Mars, “Pitch Perfect” soundtrack and a pop songwriter pretending to be a country singer (Taylor Swift). BB predicts a different order of “Pitch Perfect”, Bruno, Swifter and “Les Miz”.

Billboard rounds out the top 10 with Phil at 7th (HDD 20-23K), Lumineers at 8th (HDD 27-30K), Mumford & Sons 9th (HDD 21-24K) and One Direction (HDD 18-21K).

1 NEW A$AP Rocky “Long.Live.A$AP”: BB 140K, HDD 140-150K
2 NEW Kidz Bop Kids “Kidz Bop 23”: BB 65K, HDD 65-70K
3 5 Soundtrack “Pitch Perfect”: HDD 35-40K
4 6 Bruno Mars “Unorthodox Jukebox”: HDD 35-40K
5 4 Taylor Swift “Red”: HDD 35-40K
6 3 Soundtrack “Les Miserables”: HDD 40-45K
7 14 Phillip Phillips “The World From the Side of the Moon”: HDD 20-23K
8 8 The Lumineers “The Lumineers”: HDD 27-30K
9 11 Mumford & Sons “Babel”: HDD 21-24K
10 10 One Direction “Take Me Home”: 18-21K



Numbers Guru at MJs Big Blog
Kirsten has had a long love affair with numbers. Marry that with her love of cheese and the Numbers Threads at MJs were born.

  • zaclona77

    Anybody have an idea how many albums has Mr. Phillips sold so far? I’m not following him but it ought to be quite a number by now….

  • Anny_nanny

    “7 14 Phillip Phillips “The World From the Side of the Moon”: HDD 20-23K
    8 8 The Lumineers “The Lumineers”: HDD 27-30K
    9 11 Mumford & Sons “Babel”: HDD 21-24K”

    How RP may be before?

  • jpfan2

    Phillip Phillips, The World From the Side of the Moon 619,000 (from a week ago).

    The official numbers for this week will come out Wednesday. Although HDD numbers will be out later today.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Kirsten combined Billboard’s Building Chart, that shows relative positions for top albums based on 4 days of sales (Monday through Thursday) as reported by six major merchants with HDD’s calculated guesses of total sales for the whole week (Monday through Sunday).

    One should not combine different charts like that, because then we end up with result that does not make a lot of sense, since albums does not sell the same amount each day. An album can be 5th for example in the middle of the week (Building Chart) but end up 10th when all 7 days are counted in (HDD predictions and final Billboard numbers). Such situation often occurs with debuts because they tend to be frontloaded.

    Here is HDD predictions for this week:

    * A$AP Rocky (RCA) 140-150k
    * Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 65-70k
    Les Mis?rables (Republic) 40-45k
    Bruno Mars (Atlantic) 35-40k
    Pitch Perfect (UMe) 35-40k
    Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 35-40k
    Lumineers (Dualtone) 27-30k
    Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 21-24k
    Phillip Phillips (19/Interscope) 20-23k
    One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 18-21k
    Chris Tomlin (Six Steps) 18-21k
    Adele (XL/Columbia) 18-21k
    Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 17-20k
    Kendrick Lamar (Aftermath/Interscope) 17-20k
    Imagine Dragons (Interscope) 17-20k
    T.I. (Grand Hustle/Atlantic) 17-20k

    * Debuts

  • springboard2

    Mediabase – Tuesday update:
    3  6  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  452  543  -91  1.571
    -15  Spins
    -17  Bullet
    -0.054  AI
    31  37  VICCI MARTINEZ   Come Along f/CeeLo Green  100  106  -6  0.525
    +1  Spins
    +3  Bullet
    -0.001  AI
    41  38  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  222  208  14  0.767
    -3  Spins
    -10  Bullet
    -0.032  AI
    11  11  CARRIE UNDERWOOD   Two Black Cadillacs  4362  4154  208  34.214
    +45  Spins
    -33  Bullet
    +0.592  AI
    14  14  CASEY JAMES   Crying On A Suitcase  3129  3030  99  25.012
    +11  Spins
    -10  Bullet
    +0.103  AI
    35  33  KELLY CLARKSON   Don’t Rush f/Vince Gill  998  882  116  7.203
    +35  Spins
    +25  Bullet
    +0.362  AI
    4  4  PHILLIP PHILLIPS   Home  4349  4321  28  31.103
    +4  Spins
    +43  Bullet
    +0.291  AI
    10  10  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  3269  2960  309  24.523
    +69  Spins
    +44  Bullet
    +0.489  AI
    28  29  VICCI MARTINEZ   Come Along f/CeeLo Green  616  554  62  2.53
    +16  Spins
    +14  Bullet
    +0.104  AI
    44  42  ONE DIRECTION   Little Things  215  185  30  0.748
    +10  Spins
    +9  Bullet
    +0.042  AI
    18  19  ONE DIRECTION   Little Things  5110  5027  83  27.94
    +55  Spins
    +133  Bullet
    +0.176  AI
    19  20  KELLY CLARKSON   Catch My Breath  5088  4646  442  31.725
    +25  Spins
    -1  Bullet
    +0.169  AI
    30  27  OLLY MURS   Troublemaker f/Flo Rida  1949  1437  512  12.373
    +95  Spins
    +68  Bullet
    +0.774  AI

  • springboard2

    1/22/2013 – Itunes Top 1500 Singles and Albums (from LivePopBars)
    9. Phillip Phillips – Home
    17. Kelly Clarkson – Catch My Breath
    40. One Direction – Little Things
    50. Olly Murs – Troublemaker (feat. Flo Rida)
    57. Carrie Underwood – Two Black Cadillacs
    61. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    66. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    91. One Direction – Kiss You
    95. Cher Lloyd – Want U Back
    102. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    103. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen – Good Time
    121. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    139. Carrie Underwood – Good Girl
    146. Cher Lloyd – Oath (feat. Becky G)
    152. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)
    181. Casey James – Crying On a Suitcase
    196. One Direction – One Thing
    205. Phillip Phillips – Gone, Gone, Gone
    251. One Direction – Rock Me
    287. One Direction – Kiss You
    291. Kelly Clarkson – Because of You
    310. One Direction – Little Things
    319. Carly Rae Jepsen – This Kiss
    362. Kelly Clarkson – Don’t Rush (feat. Vince Gill)
    376. Kelly Clarkson – Dark Side
    380. One Direction – She’s Not Afraid
    401. One Direction – Nobody Compares
    469. Carly Rae Jepsen – This Kiss
    501. Carrie Underwood – Before He Cheats
    512. One Direction – Heart Attack
    522. One Direction – They Don’t Know About Us
    536. Kelly Clarkson – Since U Been Gone
    549. One Direction – Still the One
    589. Vicci Martinez & Cee Lo Green – Come Along
    604. Carly Rae Jepsen – Call Me Maybe
    692. Colton Dixon – You Are
    722. One Direction – Loved You First
    727. Mandisa & tobyMac – Good Morning (feat. TobyMac)
    738. One Direction – Up All Night
    785. Carrie Underwood – Jesus, Take the Wheel
    821. Cher Lloyd – Swagger Jagger
    824. Carrie Underwood – Cowboy Casanova
    837. One Direction – Moments
    890. Kelly Clarkson – Mr. Know It All
    902. Carly Rae Jepsen & Owl City – Good Time
    906. Jason Castro – Only a Mountain
    933. One Direction – I Would
    1000. Olly Murs – Heart Skips a Beat (feat. Chiddy Bang)
    1001. One Direction – Gotta Be You (2012 US Version)
    1036. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    1104. Carrie Underwood – Undo It
    1122. One Direction – Rock Me
    1138. One Direction – What Makes You Beautiful
    1147. One Direction – More Than This
    1156. One Direction – Live While We’re Young
    1174. Cher Lloyd – With Ur Love
    1219. One Direction – C’mon, C’mon
    1226. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    1229. One Direction – Stand Up
    1242. Cassadee Pope – Over You (The Voice Performance)
    1252. Carrie Underwood – All-American Girl
    1351. One Direction – I Want
    1369. Phillip Phillips – Home
    1496. One Direction – Last First Kiss
    1498. Carrie Underwood – Temporary Home

    28. Phillip Phillips – The World from the Side of the Moon (Deluxe)
    36. One Direction – Take Me Home (Yearbook Edition)
    49. One Direction – Take Me Home
    54. Kelly Clarkson – Greatest Hits – Chapter One
    70. Carrie Underwood – Blown Away
    72. One Direction – Up All Night (Deluxe Version)
    118. Phillip Phillips – The World from the Side of the Moon
    146. One Direction – Up All Night
    154. Cher Lloyd – Sticks & Stones
    238. Colton Dixon – A Messenger
    381. Kelly Clarkson – Stronger (Deluxe Version)
    459. Jason Castro – Only a Mountain (Deluxe Version)
    468. Cassadee Pope – The Complete Season 3 Collection (The Voice Performance)
    484. Pentatonix – PTX, Vol. 1
    550. Carly Rae Jepsen – Kiss (Deluxe Version)
    711. Daughtry – Daughtry
    841. Carrie Underwood – Play On
    899. Carrie Underwood – Some Hearts
    950. Daughtry – Break the Spell (Deluxe Version)
    958. Mandisa – What If We Were Real
    1093. Carly Rae Jepsen – Kiss
    1110. Carrie Underwood – Carnival Ride
    1117. Scotty McCreery – Clear As Day
    1190. Olly Murs – Right Place Right Time (Deluxe Version)
    1212. Kelly Clarkson – Breakaway
    1257. Terry McDermott – The Complete Season 3 Collection (The Voice Performance)
    1445. Casey James – Casey James
    1461. One Direction – iTunes Festival: London 2012 – EP

  • girlygirltoo

    Where album sales generally fall off the cliff in January, Phillip’s is holding up very nicely. If that HDD prediction holds, that will be a minimal % drop, if any, from this past week’s sales.

  • girlygirltoo

    Where album sales generally fall off the cliff in January, Phillip’s is holding up very nicely. If that HDD prediction holds, that will be a minimal % drop, if any, from this past week’s sales.

  • Anny_nanny

    CHART DATE: 01/21/2013
    LAST UPDATE: 01/22/2013 08:22:03
    NOW IN: 68.46%

    LW TW artist / album label power index
    — 1 A$AP ROCKY RCA 96,942
    — 2 KIDZ BOP KIDS RAZOR & TIE 50,494
    KIDZ BOP 23
    6 3 PITCH PERFECT UME 30,858
    12 7 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 18,364
    20 24 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 8,681

  • LongKissGoodnight


    — 1  A$AP ROCKY RCA 141,003 —
    — 2  KIDZ BOP KIDS RAZOR & TIE    74,949 —
    13 8  PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 25,531 +14%
    10 10 ONE DIRECTION – TAKE ME HOME 22,994 -16%
    20 37 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 10,059 -45%
    36 40 ONE DIRECTION – UP ALL NIGHT 9,769 -10%

    That would put Phillip’s album at ~645K.

  • jpfan2

    13 8 PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 25,531 +14%

    A nice increase thanks to Idol being back. This week should be interesting.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Buy the way, I have meant to ask for a while…
    When I first got hooked on following Idol’s alumni numbers I remember finding detailed week-by-week tables for Adam’s and Cook’s debut albums and singles on their respective fan sights, does anyone know if similar tables exist for Scotty and Phillip?

    I was king of thinking of collecting the data for Phil’s release, since I am fallowing it closely anyway, but maybe someone has already done it? 

  • jpfan2

    GGG gets its second radio add – Triple A station in Minneapolis.

  • http://twitter.com/ItsMyT1me Lori

    Nice to see GGG was added to a AAA station. Hopefully Home won’t be the exception for AAA acceptance of Idols from this point forward.

    Did GGG officially go for adds? If not, anyone know when it will?

    P2 tweeted he finished the video for GGG yesterday.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Interscope has not set the adds date for GGG yet.

    I am assuming they are waiting for numbers from Phillip’s last week performances to come in, to tack them into a complimentary press-release. But maybe it is as simple as waiting for Home to go down, it still has 100K weekly AI, so it’s not like album is not getting represented on radio.
    And considering that I personally feel there are no more songs with big hit-going on smash potential on the album I can see why label might not be in the harry to push out single #2 as long as first one is still capable of sustaining the album.
    I just feel like an adds date 2-3 weeks in advance would work out nicely right now.
    It would be easier to get a hit, if they just shine that bat signal already, and encourage PD’s to gradually replace Home with GGG.

  • http://twitter.com/annmgee Ann Gardner

    I do believe Phil’s fans are called “Philatics.” Phillip phillips online is a good fansite at phillphill.com.

    Reading some tweets about Phil’s concert tonight at MSU (Missouri) and it seems like the students are lining up 3-4 hours early to get in the show. 

    I may be wrong, but I think Phil is outside the bubble and getting a lot of love from college kids. DMB for a new generation. 

  • girlygirltoo

    Well, lining up 3-4 hours to get into an Idol’s concert is pretty much SOP, especially when the person is just off the show. Those people in line may not all be college students   :)

    But it will be fantastic if Phillip is indeed really breaking out of the Idol bubble and building a strong fanbase of people around his own age. Doing a college tour is a smart move, in my opinion (that might have helped Kris and Lee if they’d done that right off their season; I remember David Cook’s college tour being pretty successful)

  • girlygirltoo

    That’s a nice increase for P2’s album. I’m guessing in large part because of the Idol premiere plus the couple of talk shows he did?

  • Hazehel

    Is the label actually delaying the release of Gone Gone Gone because Home is still selling?  I’m wondering if the situation with “Home” is unusual?  It’s already 7 months since its first release, Is there any other song that lasted for ages on iTunes Top 10 and the label delay the release of a follow-up single because of that?  I think Carly Rae Jepsen’s Call Me Maybe was still in the Top 10 when Good Time was released.   Personally I think they should release GGG to radio regardless of how Home is doing in the iTunes chart if this is what is happening.

    @LongKissGoodnight  – do keep track of Phillip’s and Scotty numbers if you feel like doing it.  Always good to have someone who can come out with the numbers when needed.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    students are lining up 3-4 hours early to get in the show

    Of course they are. The students do the same for local acts and groups on campus.

    The theater inside the Plaster Student Union, that PP is performing free of charge at tonight, is in the student center and it holds around 350 students. This small venue regularly fills to capacity for movies, college groups and local acts. MSU is a fairly large state college, it has over 20,000 students. If you want to get in to see a free show in the PSU, you better show up early.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    girlygirltoo That’s a nice increase for P2’s album. I’m guessing in large part because of the Idol premiere plus the couple of talk shows he did?

    Well single is getting less airplay and overall level of music sales tend to fall week-to-week in January until Grammy comes and jump start the whole thing again, so I’d say yes the return of Idol (that generally tends to give winners and popular contestants 5-10% increase for a week) plus Phill’s talk show performances are to blame. %)

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    If you go to Idol Forums, Idol Showcase, Scotty’s forum, then within the Official Tracking thread on page 1…there is a week by week record of sales for everything Scotty’s put out so far (both albums and singles)…

  • tibitibis

    Ha ha at ‘actors pretending to be singers ” and Selling very well ,winning Golden Globe Awards and probably some Oscars …. who knows?

  • TheOther

    I think Phil is outside the bubble and getting a lot of love from college kids.

    Phillip’s twitter is busy today – as it was on Sat.  Tweets from the students of the sound check, helping with loading his guitars, invite to play baseball, students shouting his name from dorm windows, status of his every move.  Yesterday there were tweets from guys who are in the Gone, Gone, Gone video.  So far, all we know there is a bonfire scene and could include images that Phillip tweeted on Sun.

  • tibitibis

    And WOW!!! PP with that sales …..with Idol starting this month he’s gonna sale a little bit more in the next months i guess. :)

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Home sales pattern is definitely unusual.
    If we build a graphic for typical smash’s sales it would look like a mountain (possibly with a spike at the beginning if artist has a large fanbase or premiered the song on TV to the large audience). But it always goes up, normally ahead of radio increases, peaks before radio peak and starts falling down, with occasional additional spikes due to high profile performances and awards shows.

    Home, on the other hand spend a relatively small amount of weeks around the top of i-tunes, especially for a song about to reach 4 million downloads. But it has not left the top 15 since the Olympics despite the madness of last quoter when every week it was ether the new single from established singer or a bunch of covers from The Voice marching to the top. And later, when airplay elevated it from 11-15 positions into the top 10 it had reliably stayed in 7-9 diapason, with only a few occasional spikes due to increased promo around album drop, or i-tunes discounts. Basically, pardon the pun, making the lower half of i-tunes top 10 it’s home.

    So instead of a mountain Home’s sales graphic would look more like a very looong high-level plateau, with occasional massive spikes dew to TV exposure. And it’s radio peak actually predates the drastic decline in sales, which is unusual for a smash single (because you can only bye a song once, but continue to enjoy hearing it on the radio).

    Honestly at this point I would not be surprised if Home manages to stick it out in top 10 for three more weeks, all the way until Grammies comes and finally bump it out.

  • LongKissGoodnight

    Thank you Lexie O’Neill!
    Link below, if anyone wants to check out Scotty’s sales all combined in one place.

    I’ll try to collect Phil’s numbers tomorrow, if I have enough time.


    “Gone, Gone, Gone” going for radio adds 2/11. http://kwn.me/2n45

  • girlygirltoo

    That says HAC. Are they not sending it to AAA first?

  • Anny_nanny

    What numbers do you want to collect?

    Scotty McCreery
    10/12/2011 week 1 __ 196,739 debuted #1
    10/19/2011 week 2 __ 88,153 total to date 284,892#1 country #4 all gendre
    10/26/2011 week 3 __ 56,664 total to date 341,556 to date #1 country #3 all gendre
    11/02/2011 week 4 __ 42,269 total to date 383,825 #2 country #7 all gendres
    11/09/2011 week 5 __40,594 total to date 424,419 #2 country #12 all gendres
    11/16/2011 week 6 __42,078 total to date 466,497 #2 country # 14 all gendres
    11/23/2011 week 7 __ 33,129 total to date 500,276kCAD IS GOLD!#1 country #15 all gendre
    11/30/2011 week 8 __ 87,755 total to date 587,381#1 country #9 all gendres
    12/07/2011 week 9 __42,472 total to date 629,853 #2 country #11 all gendres
    12/14/2011 week 10 __51,645 total to date 681,498 #1 country #13 all gendres
    12/21/2011 week 11 __66,524 total to date 748,022 #2 country #19 all gendres
    12/28/2011 week 12 __ 85,238 total to date 833,260 #2 country #11 billboard
    01/04/2012 week 13 __ 22,249 total to date 855,509 #3 #21 all gendrePLATINUM!!!
    01/11/2012 week 14 __ 13,840 total to date 869,349k #5 country #23 all gendre
    01/18/2012 week 15 __ 9,908 total to date 879,257k #6 country #34 all gendre
    01/25/2012 week 16 __ 10,620 total to date 889,877 #6 country #29 all gendre
    02/01/2012 week 17 __11,410 total to date 901,287k # 6 country #30 all gendre
    02/08/2012 week 18 __12,320 total to date 913,607k #5 country #35 all gendre
    02/15/2012 week 19__12,106 total to date 925,713#9 country #47 all gendre
    02/22/2012 week 20 __ 12,980k total to date 938,693k #9 country #45 all gendre

    Phillip Phillips
    The World From the Other Side of the Moon
    26.11.12 – 1 – 169,000 – 169,000 – 4 (# Billboard 200)
    03.12.12 – 2 – 74,000 – 243,000 – 5
    10.12.12 – 3 – 65,000 – 308,000 – 9
    17.12.12 – 4 – 68,000 – 376,000 – 7
    24.12.12 – 5 – 98,000 – 474,000 – 7
    31.12.12 – 6 – 58,000 – 532,000 – 11 (Gold)
    07.01.13 – 7 – 63,000 – 595,000 – 4
    14.01.13 – 8 – 24,000 – 619,000 – 14
    21.01.13 – 9 – 26,000(?) – 645,000(?) – 8(?)

  • jpfan2

    Thanks for the chart numbers.  Looks like P2 and Scotty are pretty much in the same ballpark for chart position and album sales for the first 9 weeks. Of course things will diverge in terms of sales from now on because Scotty had those big Xmas weeks ahead of him.