HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Feb 4-10

By On 02/12/2013 · 33 Comments · In American Idol, Charts, X Factor

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With 70.38% of reports in, Josh Groban who has built his own model to success, is set to top the chart. He’s only beating out Tim McGraw (finally free from Curb) by less than a 100 albums right now, but expect that gap to widen today based on Friday’s predictions. Tim is releasing his first album with Big Machine and airplay chart ninja Scott Borchetta will no doubt be up to his usual Jedi mind tricks (this time with somebody who actually is Country!). Given how Curb had hobbled his career lately (releasing all sorts of greatest hits albums instead of actual albums so he couldn’t fulfill his contract, finally having a judge tell them to cut it out and then dumping an album they said was full of sub-standard material last January), Tim is expected to have a very respectable 95-105K.

Now 45, the album series for people who don’t have iTunes or who have friends they don’t know what to buy for, is currently set to come in 3rd place with 80-90K in sales. This version features songs by One Direction (“Live Like We’re Young”), Phil Phillips (“Home”) and Kelly Clarkson (“Catch My Breath”). Now 44 is still on the charts back in 38th featuring songs by Carly Rae Jepsen and Kelly Clarkson.

Album of the year Grammy winner, Mumford & Sons’ “Babel” has moved up 5 spots to top 4. We will see a part of the Grammy effect this week because contenders and performers got a lot of press going into the weekend and some people race to their iTunes accounts on Sunday night. The effect will be likely be larger next week. Last week’s number one, Justin Bieber (acoustic) is 5th this week, the Lumineers are 6th, the Grammy Compilation album (featuring Carly Rae Jepsen and Kelly Clarkson) is 7th, Bruno Mars is 8th, Taylor Swift’s “RED” is 9th and Red debuts “Release the Panic” in 10th.

The first reality contestant album shows up 26th with One Direction’s “Take Me Home”. Idol’s Phil Phillip and Carrie Underwood are right next to each other at 32nd and 33rd respectively. Kelly Clarkson rounds out the list at 48th with her Greatest Hits album.

CHART DATE: 02/11/2013
LAST UPDATE: 02/11/2013 12:39:53
NOW IN: 70.38%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 JOSH GROBAN ALL THAT ECHOES 95,250
– 2 TIM MCGRAW TWO LANES OF FREEDOM 95,168
– 3 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 45 VARIOUS ARTISTS 77,091
9 4 MUMFORD & SONS BABEL 38,653
1 5 JUSTIN BIEBER BELIEVE ACOUSTIC 38,018
8 6 LUMINEERS LUMINEERS 33,020
13 7 GRAMMY NOMINEES 2013 VARIOUS ARTISTS 31,704
5 8 BRUNO MARS UNORTHODOX JUKEBOX 27,653
10 9 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 25,847

– 10 RED RELEASE THE PANIC 25,765
…
20 26 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 13,340
…
26 32 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 11,619
35 33 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 11,535
…
32 38 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 9,936
…
33 47 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 6,799
47 48 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 6,618
…
50 50 WIZ KHALIFA O.N.I.F.C. 5,778

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • Anny_nanny

    Who knows the numbers of Colton’s sales? Do we know the numbers of the Christian stores or this information will never be disclosed?

  • jpfan2

    Idol Chatter should have Colton’s numbers later today. Brian is good with country/Christian albums (not so good with Pop). 

    GGG is #1 on the HAC taking off list again. It’s making a strong move up that chart. But keeping it real Idol singles always do ok there. For GGG to really sell some downloads it will have to break top 10 in the genre plus eventually cross over to CHR.  Hopefully the video will help as well.

  • Caro3278sweet

    Thank you. I am happy again. 

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    LongKissGoodnight: Good call! Yup bluegrass-EDM was the C2C song. I was curious whether you’d be able to name it and what you thought of it, so I’m glad you could. I’ll check out the album on your recommendation.

  • elliegrll

    even if Home in half a year, many believe the song of the M&S is not listening to DJs.

    I recall AI fans saying that people thought that Daughtry’s songs were Nickelback’s.  In both cases, the number of albums and singles sold go against those theories.  Phillip has gotten a lot of respect from those at radio and music critics.  He might be getting more cred. than any idol alum since Daughtry.  

  • girlygirltoo

    Huh, interesting. Thanks :)

  • ADRIANAARG1980

    PHILLIP IS DOING RADIO TOUR WHILE HE iS OPENING FOR MB 20, YESTERDAY HE WAS IN 3 DIFFERENTS PRIVATES RADIO SHOW, HE SEEMS HAD GOOD RECEPTION THERE.HE IS DOING THAT IN ALMOST EVERY CITY WHERE HE GOES.

  • Incipit

    What would be concerning is if GGG did ok on HAC but struggled to sell
    downloads. That’s happened to Daughtry, Cook, Kris Allen and Adam
    Lambert and is bad news for album sales.The second single from an Idol
    can be a career breaker if it doesn’t hit.

    jpfan2 – Second single is murky territory for winners of AI – Heh. No one can agree how to count the Coronary! – and anyway, I’m thinking you may be confusing ‘second single’ with ‘second album’ in your statement here. With those names you cited – which is the second single that didn’t hit? Non-winner Daughtry’s second single is simple enough – “Home” was a Top Five Single…awards etc are easily researched. And album sales.

    DC’s second single is either the Platinum plus  “Light On” or the Gold “Come Back To Me”, which followed Platinum Plus ToML – which one of those didn’t hit? Either was one of the three Top Ten AC hits from the debut album…a small club, with two other artists in it. The album, DCTR, also Platinum plus within three months of release.

    Kris Allens’ second single is either the Platinum plus “Live Like We’re Dying” that followed NoBo, and which certainly hit – or the debacle of “The Truth” – which did not do well – and here we have the first album of the artists on your list whose album did not benefit from single sales.

    But AL’s second single is just as murky, winner or not – depending on who you read, it’s either FYE, or “Whattya Want From Me”, or “If I Had You”- if anyone can decide how to count NoBo and Time For Miracles” – and I will leave the research and answers there to his fans…but even if his album isn’t Platinum in the US, it did very well…

    GGG is Phillip’s second single, since you are counting the Coronary for him – and the album is not Platinum yet, but doing OK – I just don’t think your statement supports what you intended it to support.

    JMO. Of Course.

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