HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Feb 11-17

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With yesterday being President’s Day in the US, HDD did not report any sales predictions. The full reports will be posted today at Hits Daily Double.

Last week was Grammy week, so expect to see those who were featured on the show or won awards see significant rebounds in sales. The rebound would have started last week with weekend sales trending up. The big winners this week will be the big winners at the Grammys. Mumford and Son took album of the year and that album is expected to sell between 160-180K. They also had a performance slot on the show and released some special edition versions of the album. Adele last year saw 730K in sales the week after she won a slew of Grammys. That woman is amazing.

Here is what HDD was predicting on Friday:

Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 150-160k – performers, album of the year, best long form video
2013 Grammy Nominees (Capitol) 90-100k – including Idols Kelly Clarkson and Carly Rae Jepsen
Bruno Mars (Atlantic) 75-85k – performer, nominee (best rap song)
Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 65k-75k – performer (opener), best song written for visual media
Josh Groban (Reprise) 60-70k – just Josh, last week’s number one
Now 45 (Capitol) 60-70k – including Phil Phillips, Kelly Clarkson and One Direction
Andrea Bocelli (Verve) 50-60k – recently released
Fun. (Fueled By Ramen) 50-60k – performers, song of the year, best new artist
Pink (RCA) 50-60k – nominee
Lumineers (Dualtone) 50-60k – performer, nominee
Tim McGraw (Big Machine) 45-55k – presenter
Black Keys (Nonesuch) 40-45k – performers, best rock performance, best rock song, best rock album, feuding with Beliebers
* Bullet For My Valentine (RCA) 35-40k – highest debut of the week
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 35-40k – performer, best short form music video
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 30-35k – snubbed, stayed home, appeared on SNL, crazed fans making the news – again
Adele (XL/Columbia) 30-35k – best pop solo performance
Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone) 30-35k – performer, nominee

 
  • LongKissGoodnight

    AAA
    28 21 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Gone, Gone, Gone 203 142 61 0.625
    +16 Spins
    +15 Bullet
    +0.022 AI
    +1 position

    HAC
    41 30 PHILLIP PHILLIPS Gone, Gone, Gone 480  252 228 2.646
    +32 Spins
    +8 Bullet
    +0.155 AI
    +1 Position

    AI all formats (Mediabase)
    PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 3.535 (+ 0.220)

  • http://twitter.com/bilolobi Namarinad

    i want Gone, Gone, Gone to enter the top 100 already

  • ADRIANAARG1980

     
    Chart News
    ?@chartnews

    Billboard Adult Pop Songs: #35 Gone, Gone, Gone, Phillip @Phillips (Top Debut).

  • girlygirltoo

    so who is this Rachel Farley who is leading everybody in radio adds so far this week? Country singer, I see. Is she a new artist? I’ve never heard of her (but again, I don’t follow country music much).

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Li-Wright/100001622678180 Li Wright

    This is interesting….no bump for the R&B and Urban singers?  They’re all black, I wonder what happened????

  • jpfan2

    Aren’t Rihanna and Bruno Mars considered to be urban/r&b artists anymore?
    I’m surprised Miguel didn’t get a big boost from the Grammy’s. Maybe his singles will get a boost.  I downloaded his single after a heard a snippet of it on the show.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    I don’t think that Kelly’s album “Stronger” got much of a bump either.

  • standtotheright

    Frank Ocean should have gotten a bump because he performed (but supposedly he was bad).

    I’m a big Channel Orange fan, but he picked one of the lower-energy deep cuts and didn’t stay on key that well. It was not the best performance. Still should have won AOTY.

  • jpfan2

    CHART DATE: 02/18/2013LAST UPDATE: 02/19/2013 10:36:18NOW IN:
    54.02%
    LW TW artist / album label power index
    4 1 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 71,275BABEL
    9 2 GRAMMY NOMINEES 2013 CAPITOL 40,499VARIOUS
    ARTISTS
    3 8 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 45 CAPITOL14,677VARIOUS ARTISTS
    – 20 SMASH CAST COLUMBIA 7,899BOMBSHELL
    40 22 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE6,434BLOWN AWAY
    – 25 MIGUEL RCA 5,600KALEIDOSCOPE DREAM
    38 31PHILLIP PHILLIPS 19/INTERSCOPE 4,839WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON
    30 32 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 4,783TAKE ME HOME
    46 37 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 4,079GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1
    47 40 FRANK OCEAN DEF JAM/IDJ 3,678CHANNEL ORANGE
    26 41 ALABAMA SHAKES ATO 3,513BOYS & GIRLS–

  • elliegrll

    Bruno’s original songs usually aren’t played on urban radio.  A song like “Locked out of Heaven” doesn’t exactly fit the format of either Urban or Urban AC.  

    Rihanna does have songs that are played on both formats, but I think that the bulk of her spins and support comes from pop radio.

  • http://twitter.com/CanadianLady2 CanadianLady

    He was terrible. A combo of the singing and the silly video stuff that was totally cheesy. I was looking forward to him and it was a huge fail.

  • standtotheright

    Rihanna does have songs that are played on both formats, but I think that the bulk of her spins and support comes from pop radio.

    Pour It Up is #1 on Urban right now. Her duet with Future is going top 10. I actually think Diamonds might have crossed over to Urban because the R&B singles were doing so well this time around, although I haven’t watched the timeline. I just don’t remember hearing it there until a few weeks ago.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Rihanna is still considered to be an Urban artist. She currently has three songs in the top 40 on the Urban chart, with one of those songs holding the #1 spot. Bruno’s songs seem to find a home more on the Rhythimic chart. He currently has two songs in the top 40 on the Rhythmic chart, with LOOH holding the #4 spot.

  • TheOther

    HDD Final:

    40

    28

    CARRIE
    UNDERWOOD

    19/ARISTA
    NASHVILLE

    23,419

    +71%

    BLOWN AWAY

    38

    36

    PHILLIP
    PHILLIPS

    19/INTERSCOPE

    18,492

    +22%

    WORLD FROM
    THE SIDE OF THE MOON

    46

    44

    KELLY
    CLARKSON

    19/RCA

    16,179

    +49%

    Was not expecting this jump all with TWFTSTOM:  I expected Carrie to get a bump because of the Grammy.  But for Phillip, he continued with his college and MB20 shows.  GGG did go to radio.  Maybe he was more popular with NBA all-stars game than thought, lol. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/TP6FDKZWZZOESHA5DCZVTU24T4 JasonG

    I hope Kelly’s albums and songs get some sales bump! 

  • jpfan2

    That’s a nice increase for P2′s album. It would be cool if it was because GGG is getting radio play but I’m guessing the NBA show probably helped. If the album could stabilize next week that would be a great sign that the new single is helping sales.

  • girlygirltoo

    MEDIABASE MONITORED RADIO ADDS (99.9% reported in)

    25 – Carly Rae Jepsen – Tonight I’m Getting Over You
    17 – Cher Lloyd f/ Juicy J – With Ur Love
    15 – Little Mix – Wings
    14 – Olly Murs f/ Flo Rida – Troublemaker
    13 – One Direction – Kiss You
    10 – Phillip Phillips – Gone Gone Gone
      8 – Kelly Clarkson – Catch My Breath
      8 – Christina Aguilera & Blake Shelton – Just A Fool
      5 – Kelly Clarkson f/ Vince Gill – Don’t Rush
      5 – Maroon 5 – Daylight
      4 – Stefano – Yes to Love 
      4 – Vicci Martinez f/ Cee Lo Green – Come Along
      2 – Tate Stevens – Power of a Love Song
      1 – Blake Shelton – Sure Be Cool If You Did
      1 – Colton Dixon – You Are
      1 – Leah Labelle – Lolita
      1 – Maroon 5 – Payphone
      1 – Maroon 5 f/ Christina Aguilera – Moves Like Jagger
      1 – Nicki Minaj – Va Va Voom
      1 – Nicki Minaj – Freedom

  • windmills

    CD sales in general usually go up for Valentine’s Day because music is a popular romantic gift. I’d guess that was a big part of what drove P2′s sales increase last week.

    girlygirltoo: so who is this Rachel Farley who is leading everybody in radio adds so
    far this week? Country singer, I see. Is she a new artist? I’ve never
    heard of her (but again, I don’t follow country music much).

    Yes, she’s new. 17 year old gal, strong alto voice, and the single is a rocker. She’s signed to Red Bow, which is an imprint of Broken Bow Records, where Kristy Lee Cook and Jason Aldean are signed. The label’s been running ads for her single for at least the last couple weeks with testimonials from Brantley Gilbert, Colt Ford, and Jason Aldean. Brantley was an early supporter of hers, and she also opened for Jason and Luke Bryan on tour last year. The song isn’t my favorite but the label did a good job with 1st week adds.

  • lufausljc

    “Gone, Gone, Gone,” finally entered the top 200 on iTunes. It’s at #185 right now. I know the song has entered the top 200 before, but it was mainly due to performances that gave it a bump. The song has entered now by just radio presence and the seemingly increasing interest for Phillip’s second single after “Home” has made its presence since last May.

  • girlygirltoo

    wow, she’s young. thanks for the info

  • Anny_nanny

    It’s fun to watch as “The Moon” is sold better than “North” right now and Phillip is opening a show for Rob. Yes, I know that MB20 a great band, and Phillip newbie, I love Rob and guys and I am delighted that the PP was lucky to perform with them on the same stage, this gorgeous experience and great happiness. What is happening teaches philosophical attitude to the life and the glory.

  • http://twitter.com/bilolobi Namarinad

    it’s like the song heard me, i posted upthread that i wanted it to go top 100 already and when i wake up i see it at 183, it’s coming slowly but surely
    lol :)

  • jpfan2

    GGG is gradually moving up on iTunes. That should be reflecting the increased radio play the song is getting.

    Breaking into the top 100 in iTunes will be a big milestrone for the song and that hopefully will happen in a week or two. When VH1 adds the video of GGG that’ll give sales a big boost as well.

  • http://twitter.com/bilolobi Namarinad

    when will VH1 add the video of “Gone, Gone, Gone” or people need to ask for it ?

  • ADRIANAARG1980

    Greg Holden
    ?@gregholden

    Officially 4 million singles sold in USA as of today! #home #wowzers @phillips