HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Dec 10-16

By On 12/18/2012 · 38 Comments · In America's Got Talent, American Idol, Britain's Got Talent, Charts, X Factor UK

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With 55.94% of reports in, Taylor Swift’s “RED” is coasting to another win atop the BB200 chart. She is predicted to sell an impressive 190K-200K this week. What will be in your stocking this year? Bruno Mars should be second on the chart with the highest debut of the week with around 140-160K in sales. That is quite a step up from his 55K opening frame with “Doo Wops and Other Hooligans”. I wonder what his strategy was opening so close to Christmas? Those post-Christmas cliffs are awe inducing.

Michael Buble shoves the old guy aside to move into the top Christmas album of the week position. Last year, his Christmas album did very impressive numbers becoming the second best selling album of 2011 (almost 2.5M), but it looks like some people have still yet to buy it. Rod Stewart is doing well for his two days in studio with “Merry Christmas Baby” in 5th position. Blake Shelton (Voice Judge) has his Christmas offering at 9th while Lady A’s is at 10th. Comparison song to pick your favourite: “Blue Christmas” (though “White Christmas”, “Let it Snow”, and “I’ll be Home for Christmas” can be found on three of them).

Speaking of Christmas, don’t know what to get that extra person on your Christmas list because you have no idea what their taste is? Why not Now 44? Surely there is a song on there that they will like. It also features American Idol Kelly Clarkson, Canadian Idol Carly Rae Jepsen, Voice Judge Adam Levine and American Idol judge Nicki Minaj. If not Now 44, than Now 44-1, Now 44-2, Now 44-3….Why not just give them a $10 iTunes gift card and let them pick songs they do like? Now is 6th.

Jason Alden surges to 7th.

Now, onto reality singing show contestants. One Direction seems to have taken permanent hold of the number 4 slot on the BB200 chart. Nice work if you can get it. I wish they had finished 4th on X-Factor so I could link that in some way. But, they were 3rd on Season 7, and 7-3 equals 4 so I’m sure there is some weird stat I could come up with if I worked as a colour commentator for baseball. This will be their 3rd week at 4th so I hope they can hang on for another week.

Meanwhile, Phil Phillip seems to have decided to stay in the top 10 of the BB200 album chart forever. He is currently in 8th, but if you exclude the Christmas albums and Now 44 ahead of him (and January will), he’d be in 5th. He is a little energizer bunny considering that Idol fan fueled buying can tend to peter out pretty quickly. Goodness knows I’m not fan of his singing, but I have to think he’s moved at least partly outside of the bubble and these albums are now also being sold to people who just like his coronation song. God Bless Jimmy Iovine for stopping the tradition of “This is My Now Inside Your Heaven Making Mom Proud” type songs. Yes, yes, if Phil hadn’t sung “Home” well it wouldn’t be a hit either, but there is no way he could have sold a traditional Idol coronation song.

Speaking of Idol winners, there is Scotty McCreery sitting at 12th with his Christmas album. Maybe if he’d added “Blue Christmas” he would be in the top 10 too. Carrie Underwood, also lacking “Blue Christmas” because her album is not a Christmas album, makes a big move up this week into the top 15. Our final entry from Idol is Kelly Clarkson at 32nd for her Greatest Hits Album. One Direction notches another album in the top 50 with their earlier entry from 2012 (“Up All Night”) at 24. From the Got Talent series, we have two runners-up. AGT’s Jackie Evancho’s Christmas album, “Heavenly Christmas”, is at 44th while right behind her is BGT’s SuBo’s latest offering at 45.

Let’s see: Idol 4 albums, X-Factor 2 albums, Got Talent 2 albums, Voice 0 albums

Will their “Bulk buy iTunes singles or your contestant gets the boot” training regime change that outcome for this season’s contestants? Or will the Voice fans be too broke from two seasons of iTunes trench warfare to have any money left to purchase albums?

CHART DATE: 12/17/2012
LAST UPDATE: 12/17/2012 16:07:58
NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 TAYLOR SWIFT RED 93,983
– 2 BRUNO MARS UNORTHODOX JUKEBOX 73,929
5 3 MICHAEL BUBLE CHRISTMAS 69,657
4 4 ONE DIRECTION TAKE ME HOME 46,412
3 5 ROD STEWART MERRY CHRISTMAS BABY 45,840
13 6 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 44 VARIOUS ARTISTS 36,234
15 7 JASON ALDEAN NIGHT TRAIN 28,409
8 8 PHILLIP PHILLIPS WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOON 26,800
10 9 BLAKE SHELTON CHEERS, IT’S CHRISTMAS 26,671
9 10 LADY ANTEBELLUM ON THIS WINTER’S NIGHT 26,388
…
16 12 SCOTTY MCCREERY MERC CHRISTMAS WITH SCOTTY 24,770
…
25 15 CARRIE UNDERWOOD BLOWN AWAY 20,350
…
24 30 ONE DIRECTION UP ALL NIGHT 13,049
…
37 32 KELLY CLARKSON GREATEST HITS – CHAPTER 1 12,011
…
22 34 MAROON 5 OVEREXPOSED 10,821
…
32 40 CEE LO GREEN CEE LO’S MAGIC MOMENT 7,674
…
– 44 JACKIE EVANCHO HEAVENLY CHRISTMAS 6,913
35 45 SUSAN BOYLE STANDING OVATION: THE GREATEST 6,820
…
40 50 ROLLING STONES GRRR! GREATEST HITS 5,183

Hits Daily Double

 
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  • girlygirltoo

    What does that put Philip at now for his album? Somewhere over 300K, right?

    This current week (Dec. 17-23) will likely be the last decent week for album sales before the post-Christmas crash. 

  • http://twitter.com/LexieONeill Lexie O’Neill

    Congrats to the Idols for keeping up with those sales!  And CMA Christmas is tomorrow night…here’s crossing my fingers for a nice bump for CWSM!!

  • ADRIANAARG1980

     HE SOLD SOMETHING LIKE 375.000 TOTAL COPIES IN US

  • fuzzywuzzy

    That’s about right. The latest Soundscan sales:

    “3 19IN 4 5 8 PHILLIPS*PHILLIP WORLD FROM THE SIDE OF THE MOO 65,445 -12 74,478 309,081”

    So, if last week’s sales are close to the HDD estimate (66,790), then …Moon will have sold around 375,000.

  • girlygirltoo

    thanks

  • maymay

    PP`s Home has sold over 2.8m.
    So 2.8m+last week(guess 100k) +this week(guess 100k)=3 Platinum.

    PP`s album has sold 319k.
    So 319k+last week(about 66k)+this week(guess 60k)+next week(guess 60k)
    =Gold

  • girlygirltoo

    It would still be a bit of a longshot for Philip to get to gold by the end of the year. Figure 60-70K this week (week of 12/17), which would put him at approx. 440K. But starting with Christmas week, album sales are going to drop like a stone. He could do it by Dec. 31, but more likely he’ll get there in early January. Which would still be really fast, and a huge achievement. If he does somehow get there before the end of the year, well, even better :)

  • SaSa8

    How many weeks has COAS been on the chart for Casey?  I thought it was done too.  Good job for hanging on. 

    Congrats to PP  for another good week of sales.  Gold looks likely now it is just a matter of when.  Guess he is glad now that he did not go for the January release date he originally proposed.   

    Scotty has another good week of sales.  He has a few TV appearances this week so I’m hoping that will give him another strong week of sales before the holiday.  He is hanging right in there close to Lady A and Blake for sales - Good for him.   

  • jpfan2

    I think P2′s album could be certified gold in 2012 (based on shipments) but probably won’t go gold.

  • blackberryharvest

    I think it will be certified based on shipments, but it might not actually get to the 500K mark.

  • Anny_nanny

    I think not that certificate do need to the beginning of season 12. In the beginning of the season AI has a shot with the success of “Home”, and better leave something at the time when Phillip returns to the show.
    So I see no reason to hurry.
    I hope Scotty will be able to return with a new single, I hope that Jessica and Colton will present albums. I hope Phillip will present new single.
    Would like to see Haley and Lauren, I dream of the return Kelly – I’m tired of looking for it on the “stranger” of the show.

    What I’m absolutely not interested in AI is the judge. Thank you to who invented the mute and fast forward!

  • jpfan2

    The days after Xmas are great for singles but not so much albums.  So I think it’s unlikely that P2 sells 60K next week. After xmas the number will matter less than where the album ranks on the BB200 (everyone’s sales will crash). The higher the better!

  • ADRIANAARG1980
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