HDD – Album Sales Prediction : Apr 25-May 1

This is a rare week in album numbers. It is not often when no album manages to debut in the top 10. The highest debuting album this week is “All At Once” from The Airborne Toxic Event at lucky number 13.

Adele continues to DOMINATE the charts this year. She may have the highest selling album of the year sewn up before the big fall albums even come out. Her 21 is topping the chart this week while her 19 has climbed back into the top 10. Foo Fighters continue to sell strong at 2nd three weeks in while Britney moves enough units to take 3rd (as she needs to do because she has a ways to go to sell all those CDs they shipped). Mumford and Sons and Chris Brown round out the top 5 with 4th and 5th respectively.

The back-half of the top 10 is filled with Glee’s Warblers, Jason Aldean (featuring a duet with Kelly Clarkson), Lemonade Mouth, Now 37 and the aforementioned Adele. The only solo Idol on the list is Jennifer Hudson and with 56.9% of the market reporting in, she is currently at 21st.

Speaking of NOW, the track listing of NOW 38 is out and it features no Idols. That’s two in a row for that franchise.

This is the daily numbers thread. Sometimes it is like an airborne toxic event. Sometimes, it is my kinda party. Find out which after the jump.

CHART DATE: 05/02/2011
LAST UPDATE: 05/02/2011 18:59:55
NOW IN: 56.90%

LW TW artist / album label power index
1 1 ADELE 21 84,921
3 2 FOO FIGHTERS WASTING LIGHT 26,284
5 3 BRITNEY SPEARS FEMME FATALE 24,066
7 4 MUMFORD & SONS SIGH NO MORE 21,724
9 5 CHRIS BROWN F.A.M.E. 21,660
2 6 GLEE CAST GLEE PRESENTS THE WARBLERS 20,086
13 7 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 15,415
4 8 LEMONADE MOUTH SOUNDTRACK 13,679
14 9 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 37 VARIOUS ARTISTS 12,858
28 10 ADELE 19 9,964

— 13 THE AIRBORNE TOXIC EVENT ALL AT ONCE 9,084

32 21 JENNIFER HUDSON I REMEMBER ME 7,105
34 40 GLEE, THE MUSIC: VOL. 5 4,815

  • tripp_ncwy

    Mediabase (rolling) TW: May 2

    US

    HAC
    32 31 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 559 447 112 2.665
    43 41 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 321 256 65 1.182

    AC
    3 3 DAUGHTRY September 1398 1425 -27 9.825
    21 22 MATTHEW MORRISON Summer Rain 144 139 5 0.771

    Top 40
    7 6 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 8556 7433 1123 58.267
    44 43 GLEE CAST Loser Like Me 494 578 -84 1.471

    Urban
    21 29 JENNIFER HUDSON Where You At 756 1212 -456 3.39
    71 45 JENNIFER LOPEZ I’m Into You f/Lil W… 340 118 222 1.386

    Urban AC
    3 2 JENNIFER HUDSON Where You At 1748 1785 -37 10.534
    24 22 FANTASIA Collard Greens & Cor… 371 332 39 1.902
    42 39 JENNIFER HUDSON Don’t Look Down 118 86 32 1.679

    Rhythmic
    19 17 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 2026 1825 201 11.063

    Christian AC
    2 2 MANDISA Stronger 1274 1229 45 5.016
    25 24 CHRIS SLIGH One 234 216 18 0.884

    Canadian

    Top 40
    3 1 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 1716 1549 167 13.612

    HAC
    4 3 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 924 908 16 5.856

    Main-AC
    46 33 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 113 62 51 1.563

  • sma11ie

    Sometimes it is like an airborne toxic event. Sometimes, it is my kinda party.

    LOL, Kirsten.

    Was this discussed? I guess David got 9 HAC adds yesterday, so including the previous 5, he has 14 total, so… that’s not a bad start, right? Doesn’t look like any of the stations for which he did a radio show recently has added… hoping they will hop on board soon. Fingers crossed :)

  • JazzRocks

    Is this the right thread to post this?

    RCA Ed: Thursday, April 28, 2011 – 13:03

    Hey guys, just saw this:. 2,021 GNL DVDs were sold this week (+3% vs. LW) for a 5-week total of 27,825, and it bounced back to #2 on the Music DVD Chart.

  • tierbee

    Doesn’t look like any of the stations for which he did a radio show recently has added… hoping they will hop on board soon. Fingers crossed

    It would be nice if one of them would add soon so I can leave the radio on one channel, haha!!

    I won’t even bother worrying about 99.5. They have no Cook love there, lol. I did see that it’s on 94.7’s Mediabase form at least.

  • Listening

    JazzRocks, okay maybe this is just a brain fart but for the life of me I can’t figure out what GNL DVDs stands for can anybody explain?

  • Moria Polonius

    JazzRocks, okay maybe this is just a brain fart but for the life of me I can’t figure out what GNL DVDs stands for can anybody explain?

    GNL: Glam Nation Live

  • gferna

    Is this the right thread to post this?

    RCA Ed: Thursday, April 28, 2011 – 13:03

    Hey guys, just saw this:. 2,021 GNL DVDs were sold this week (+3% vs. LW) for a 5-week total of 27,825, and it bounced back to #2 on the Music DVD Chart.

    YESSSSSS!!!

  • tinawina

    Was this discussed? I guess David got 9 HAC adds yesterday, so including the previous 5, he has 14 total, so… that’s not a bad start, right? Doesn’t look like any of the stations for which he did a radio show recently has added… hoping they will hop on board soon.

    I think it is decent. I would have preferred like say 10+ adds yesterday being the adds day and all, but the fact that a handful of these were major market more than makes up for it. Last time I checked he was getting new test spins from stations that did not add yet as well so I think things are going fine so far.

  • Oksana2000

    Is this the right thread to post this?

    RCA Ed: Thursday, April 28, 2011 – 13:03

    Hey guys, just saw this:. 2,021 GNL DVDs were sold this week (+3% vs. LW) for a 5-week total of 27,825, and it bounced back to #2 on the Music DVD Chart.

    Aren’t this LAST WEEK results??

  • Listening

    Moria Polonius, thanks for the explanation. JazzRocks mentioned RCA Ed so I thought it was David Cook related. Umm does anybody know if there are two RCA Eds one who’s on David Cook Official and another working the Adam Lambert stuff or is it the same guy?

  • Oksana2000

    Listening, the same guy..unfortunately.

  • Listening

    Oksana2000, Thanks for the answer, things are starting to make sense now.

  • sma11ie

    Listening, the same guy..unfortunately.

    Oksana2000, Thanks for the answer, things are starting to make sense now.

    LOL…

    I would have preferred like say 10+ adds yesterday being the adds day and all, but the fact that a handful of these were major market more than makes up for it. Last time I checked he was getting new test spins from stations that did not add yet as well so I think things are going fine so far.

    Yeah, I think that’s where I stand as well. I went poking around the charts thread on DCO, and found this basis for comparison from the venerable ladymadonna:

    Light On
    Week 1 (9/29/08) – 2
    Week 2 (10/6/08) – 1
    Week 3 (10/13/08) – 10 [HAC impact date]

    Early large-market adds: Seattle (#13), Boston (#10), St. Louis (#21), Cleveland (#29)

    Come Back to Me
    Week 1 (3/23/09) – 1
    Week 2 (3/30/09) – 2
    Week 3 (4/6/09) – 13
    Week 4 (4/13/09) -13 [HAC impact date]

    Early large-market adds: Sirius (NA), Chicago (#3), San Francisco (#4), Houston (#6), Boston (#10), Seattle (#13), Phoenix (#15), Cleveland (#29)

    The Last Goodbye
    Week 1 (4/25/11) – 4
    Week 2 (5/2/11) – 9 [HAC impact date]

    Early large-market adds (to-date): Seattle (#13), New York (#1, but AC), San Francisco (#4)… is Las Vegas large?

    Stuff in bold added by me (since her post was before adds were done reporting for TLG). I think 10+ would’ve been better, but still, not bad.

  • Eileen99

    KMXB (Las Vegas) is the #33 market.

    I think David’s adds are fine although he could have used some larger markets, but still, it’s a solid start. He got a lot of the typical Idol-friendly stations on board so that’s a good sign.

    If Ladymadonna or someone who knows things is lurking, at what point did WPLJ (especially) & KBIG jump on board David’s previous singles?

  • AllenTX

    Do we have spin counts comparison? I prefer spin count than adds. adds doesn’t mean they’ll play it much.

  • ladymadonna

    If Ladymadonna or someone who knows things is lurking, at what point did WPLJ (especially) & KBIG jump on board David’s previous singles?

    I would expect WPLJ to add within the next few weeks – they added TOML one week after adds and both LO and CBTM two weeks after the HAC adds date. KBIG came onboard with both the Rainbow and CBTM two weeks after adds, but they were slower on LO – I don’t think they added that until the end of November, so nearly 6 weeks after the HAC impact date. Both stations still play Cook’s recurrent singles so it would be a surprise (and not a good sign) if they chose not to add TLG.

  • iani

    nvm, found it.

  • Pam

    CHART DATE: 05/02/2011
    LAST UPDATE: 05/03/2011 12:58:23
    NOW IN: FINAL

    LW TW artist / album label power index % change
    1 1 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 123,001 -20%
    21
    3 2 FOO FIGHTERS ROSWELL/RCA/RMG 34,205 -52%
    WASTING LIGHT
    7 3 MUMFORD & SONS GLASSNOTE 30,158 -25%
    SIGH NO MORE
    4 4 LEMONADE MOUTH WALT DISNEY 28,173 -58%
    SOUNDTRACK
    5 5 BRITNEY SPEARS JIVE/JLG 27,874 -40%
    FEMME FATALE
    9 6 CHRIS BROWN JIVE/JLG 27,842 -26%
    F.A.M.E.
    2 7 GLEE CAST COLUMBIA 27,659 -67%
    GLEE PRESENTS THE WARBLERS
    10 8 PAUL SIMON HEAR MUSIC 24,176 -34%
    SO BEAUTIFUL OR SO WHAT
    13 9 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 23,128 -24%
    MY KINDA PARTY
    19 10 BRUNO MARS NEW ELEKTRA 22,865 -10%
    DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS

    — 16 THE AIRBORNE TOXIC EVENT ISLAND/IDJMG 16,789 —
    ALL AT ONCE

    32 35 JENNIFER HUDSON ARISTA/RMG 11,175 -35%
    I REMEMBER ME

    34 45 GLEE CAST COLUMBIA 8,677 -48%
    GLEE, THE MUSIC: VOL. 5

    47 50 KID ROCK ATLANTIC 8,002 -35%
    BORN FREE

    Full chart

  • sr4mjc

    Adele, you goddess! I’m just thankful my station has moved her to the #10 slot on their playlist. And they are a Rhythmic heavy CHR station. Go girl!

    Ed mods for Daughtry, Cook, Avril, Adam.. and he’s kinda a jerk sometimes most times.

  • Pam

    Adds (Monitored)

    Dave (9)-TLG (8 Hot AC, 1 AC)
    Jason Aldean/Kelly (7) DYWS (3 Canada-Main AC, 3 Hot AC, 1 Pop)
    J-Lo (7)-I’m Into You f/Lil Wayne (2 Pop, 3 Rhythmic, 2 Urban)
    J-Lo (3)-OTF (1 Hot AC, 1 Pop, 1 Urban)
    Carrie (1)-SLT (Country)
    Fantasia (1)-Collard Greens & Cornbread (Urban AC)
    JHud (1)-Don’t Look Down (Urban AC)

    LINK