HDD – Album Sales Prediction –Feb 21-27

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With almost 55% of the market reporting, Adele seems to have a convincing lead with her latest album “21″. The Bieb continues to sell well with his “Never Say Never” remixes EP at number 2 and his “My World 2″ at 5 (acoustic EP at 12 and “My World’ at 38). Next up is NOW 37 in 3rd and Mumford & Sons filling out the top 5 at 4th.

Just outside the top 5 is Justin Aldean’s “My Kinda Party”. His album just keeps selling and selling and part of the drive for those sales is the awesome duet it with Kelly Clarkson on the CD. Other CDs that feature Idols are the 2011 Grammy Nominees with Adam Lambert (14), Now 36 with Daughtry and Adam (25) and BTR with Jordan Sparks (33).

This is the daily numbers thread. Post some more.

CHART DATE: 02/28/2011
LAST UPDATE: 02/28/2011 15:12:26
NOW IN: 54.98%

LW TW artist / album label power index
– 1 ADELE 21 86,002
1 2 JUSTIN BIEBER NEVER SAY NEVER – THE REMIXES 67,612
3 3 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 37 VARIOUS ARTISTS 48,302
2 4 MUMFORD & SONS SIGH NO MORE 43,064
8 5 JUSTIN BIEBER MY WORLD 2.0 19,460
16 6 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 19,291

7 14 2011 GRAMMY NOMINEES VARIOUS ARTISTS 12,395

49 25 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 36 VARIOUS ARTISTS 6,923

– 33 BIG TIME RUSH BTR 6,209

38 36 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 4 5,854

Hits Daily Double

 
  • windmills

    HDD’s predicting Adele for 325-350k. Awesome!

    A little update from the country charts: Jason/Kelly have officially hit #1 on Billboard Hot Country Songs as confirmed by Jason’s press release and Billboard Country Update. This morning’s update on Mediabase still has DYWS at #1 with a lead of 42 points over Brad Paisley’s This Is Country Music. That’s a small lead but bigger than yesterday. Brad’s song had a very small AI loss from yesterday. IMO if there was going to be a successful push for Brad this week we would’ve seen a gain yesterday but we’ll see. Also Broken Bow has an ad in this week’s Billboard Country Update so I think they’re pushing country radio to keep up the spins.

    Also in news that might humor me only, there’s now a bunch of confusion in Carrieland. After a bunch of tips from DJs/Headline Country that there wasn’t going to be a 5th single from Play On, XM’s main country station has been playing Songs Like This and DJ Whitney Allen who has a syndicated show and who’s had the advance scoop on other Carrie singles is saying Songs Like This is Carrie’s new single. Too, SLT is showing up in song battles. But that could just be because SLT is charting on its own on Billboard: it’s #51 this week.

    But on the other side you’ve got another DJ in Atlanta tweeting

    Yes I do think the Brad and Carrie duet will be a single. After This is Country Music which would allow it to POP near BP street wk

    IMO he’s speculating but on the other hand the fact that they’re keeping the collaboration under wraps makes it seem like there’s something significant going on. Though probably not as big as fans might dream.

    I wouldn’t think they’d suddenly change their minds and put out SLT as a 5th PO single but I’d totally be down with it if they did. I wanted it to be the 3rd single from PO. It’s totally country but with a little modern twist and even though it’s a boy basher, it’s funny. With Carrie participating in CRS this week and playing the Opry Friday, maybe we’ll get some of the mysteries cleared up.

  • Valentin432

    I totally expect DYWS to keep the n°1 spot on billboard next week and take the n°1 mediabase from BTD.
    Having followed this thing since november, This Is Country Music was not exactly skyrocketing to the top so I think his label was definetly pushing his song to compete last week (altough probably not as agressively as Big Machine), DYWS rise has seeemed natural since the time Jason’s first single peaked and the good numbers on radio feedback, callout america and itunes all seem to indicate a great response to the song.

    The single situation with both Daughtry and Carrie seem a little strange. They both have time to release a new one since I don’t see a new album coming before the 4th trimester and their album are in the BB200 (or very close to it). Carrie’s would easily go at least top 10 on country and same for Daughtry on HAC/AC without much of a push.

  • tripp_ncwy

    Mediabase (rolling)

    US

    AC
    3 2 DAUGHTRY September 1753 1739 14 10.381

    HAC

    46 42 KIMBERLY CALDWELL Desperate Girls & St… 180 172 8 0.194

    Adult Hits
    21 24 DAUGHTRY September 49 55 -6 0.143
    30 29 ADAM LAMBERT Whataya Want From Me 39 41 -2 0.282
    28 35 DAUGHTRY No Surprise 33 41 -8 0.18

    Country
    4 1 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 5493 5000 493 39.677

    Top 40
    37 37 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 1197 1025 172 6.613

    AAA
    46 44 CRYSTAL BOWERSOX Farmer’s Daughter 62 54 8 0.101

    Urban
    22 21 JENNIFER HUDSON Where You At 1168 1018 150 6.328

    Urban AC
    5 6 FANTASIA I’m Doin’ Me 1620 1650 -30 10.718
    16 12 JENNIFER HUDSON Where You At 857 600 257 5.466
    27 26 CHARLIE WILSON f/FANTASIA I Wanna Be Your Man … 228 208 20 1.26

    Rhythmic
    46 39 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 734 589 145 3.628

    Canadian

    Top 40
    28 27 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 401 410 -9 2.478

    HAC
    35 32 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 238 208 30 1.603

    Main-AC
    6 8 DAUGHTRY September 284 295 -11 1.445

    Country
    2 2 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 782 739 43 2.087

  • Valentin432

    I found this too on the Billboard country update:

    Aldean’s new chart-topper brings “American Idol” champ Kelly Clarkson to No. 1 on the country chart for her first time, bringing to three the total number of “Idol” alums to reach the top—Carrie Underwood has 10 leaders, and Josh Gracin has one. Clarkson previously rose to No. 2 in September 2007 as McEntire’s duet partner on “Because of You.”

  • windmills

    Valentin432: Having followed this thing since november, This Is Country Music was not exactly skyrocketing to the top so I think his label was definetly pushing his song to compete last week (altough probably not as agressively as Big Machine), DYWS rise has seeemed natural since the time Jason’s first single peaked and the good numbers on radio feedback, callout america and itunes all seem to indicate a great response to the song.

    What was interesting is for a long time DYWS wasn’t doing that well on Callout America but it was killing it on Radio Feedback which is internet only like Rate The Music. But then the last few weeks it’s finally caught on at Callout America too. It’s also been killing it in downloads from the start too. That probably says something about whose opinions are being included in which thing.

    ITA DYWS’s rise has been natural. It actually started even before Jason’s 1st single peaked, it was already top 30 and maybe even top 25 when My Kinda Party peaked. It’s a song radio’s loved from the start and having the biggest guy at country radio who’s breaking through to the superstar level singing with a country-friendly pop star who just so happens to have the best voice in her genre helped too. It’s just a reallllllly radio friendly song. I don’t even think it’s that great a song but it has its own IT factor or something. It’s really listenable.

    As far as Brad I adore him but TICM is probably his worst single ever. I understand the reasoning behind it and all that and how it sets up the theme for his whole album. The production is great but lyrics are so stereotypical it’s almost offensive. He was definitely getting a push last week. I’m so ready to move on from this single.

    Evil Big Machine was so focused on getting Taylor a Mediabase #1 but on Billboard Back To December peaked at #3 even with the push. Shenanigans!

  • Eileen99

    Chris Medina was on Fox & Friends this morning for an interview. He didn’t perform, but they showed clips of the video and some Idol footage. I think his song was at #39-ish on iTunes before the broadcast and is at #27 now.

    Nice job, Jason & Kelly. Keep it going!

  • tripp_ncwy

    Radio Adds so far;

    HUDSON, JENNIFER – Where You At
    3 – Urban
    3 – Urban AC

    CALDWELL, KIMBERLY – Desperate Girls & Stupid Boys
    1 – Top 40

    ALDEAN, JASON/KELLY CLARKSON – Don’t You Wanna Stay
    1 – Canada-Hot AC
    2 – Hot AC

    LOPEZ, JENNIFER F/PITBULL – On The Floor
    1 – Canada-Hot AC
    4 – Top 40
    2 – Rhythmic

  • girlygirl

    Josh Gracin had a #1 country hit? what was it?

  • Valentin432

    Josh Gracin had a #1 country hit? what was it?

    Nothin’ To Lose

  • windmills

    Josh Gracin really is the 1st Idol breakthrough in country. His debut era was really successful: 3 top 5 country hits (including that #1) and an album that’s sold more than 700k copies by now.

  • Indigobunting

    I never heard Nothin To Lose before; its fun, I like it.

    I’m extremely surprised how poppish it sounds, TBH. He is twangy of course, but despite the usual country instrumentation, fiddles and such, his vocal style sounds quite pop to me-even down to the rap style delivery of a lot of the lyrics. I haven’t followed him, so I was very surprised to listen to that.

    Boy the music business is tough. I guess all his radio and album sale accomplishments don’t even guarantee stardom. The women Idols seem to have done better than men in country. In fact, the women have done better all around.

  • windmills

    Indigobunting: his vocal style sounds quite pop to me-even down to the rap style delivery of a lot of the lyrics.

    Alan Jackson is surprised to learn he’s got a rap-style vocal in Good Time (check the prechorus).

    Seriously, the fast talkin delivery is pretty common in country music. Josh Turner, Dierks Bentley, and Rodney Atkins come to mind as other recent examples off the top of my head. For better or worse it’s always reminded me of a bid calling auctioneer.

    By the way Columbia Nashville’s officially added Bradley Gaskin to its roster. I haven’t heard much about this guy because I try to avoid all things connected with John Rich if I can. Hopefully somebody else produces his record. Good voice, solid writer.

  • wonderings

    Hits Daily Double has Adele at more than 350,000 in sales! Excellent, excellent news.

  • IdolThoughts

    I have been enjoying Adele and Mumford & Sons virtually non-stop. Wow. GREAT albums.

  • girlygirl

    Adele’s debut album (“19″) is also in the top 20 on the HDD chart :)

  • HR

    Josh’s struggles since his debut album had more to do with his record company imo then being a male. Bucky Covington was signed to the very same label and the pattern was similiar. Milk the initial fanfare and celebrity from Idol for decent sales and then abandon their second efforts. In Josh’s case his second album was tied up for years before being released with little effort shown.

  • Elliegrll

    Josh’s struggles since his debut album had more to do with his record company imo then being a male. Bucky Covington was signed to the very same label and the pattern was similiar.

    I thought the problem was also his attitude, which is something that I believe he admitted, after he left his label. When he was on the show people noticed that he was full of himself, and he was the same way once he got his contract.

  • istersay

    @DAVIDBENDETH
    128-118# 5161 sold ..total 160,759 rock 28023# you go girl!! 18 minutes ago via web