HDD – Album Sales Prediction – Nov 29-Dec 5

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Last year, two chanteuses were caught in an epic battle to see who would have the top selling album of the year. Taylor’s 2008 Fearless album faced off against Boyle’s 2009 “I Dreamed a Dream”. The industry was all aflutter about how SuBo managed to rack up 3.104M in sales in just 6 weeks to nearly catch Taylor’s 3.217M in sales. Given the length of time typically between CDs, it’s kind of unusual to see the two battling it out on the charts again just one year later, but here we are with SuBo and Taylor sitting at one-two. Now, neither are likely to have the best selling album of 2010. Eminem looks to have that sewed-up with 3,052,878 in sales already this year and Lady Antebellum isn’t far behind at 2,850,941.

Coincidentally, both Taylor and SuBo are sitting behind Justin Bieber on the year-to-date charts. Taylor’s “Speak Now” is set to pass the Bieb’s “My World II” which is currently at 3rd (the albums have sold 1,965,107 and 2,052,317 respectively so far this year). Meanwhile, SuBo’s “The Gift” is currently in 13th having sold 878,423 right behind Bieb’s “My World” which has sold 895,355. She will likely move into the top 10 this week (pushing Ke$ha down and out). But, shed no tears for The Fetus. He’s doing alright. He’s sold a whopping 3,063,139 albums in the US alone this year and his acoustic EP is currently sitting at 8th on the HDD chart. It’s looking to have a smaller than usual first to second week drop, especially when you consider it’s coming off of Black Friday.

Little Jackie keeps on moving those units to hold onto 3rd and Kanye West sales look to be pretty front loaded (that’s typical of many Rap acts who have awesome first weeks with sharp drop-off in sales. Eminem excepted). Glee rounds out the top 5 with their Christmas album.

Glee actually has two albums in the top 50. Their new soundtrack album is right behind their Christmas album at number 6. There are three artists with two albums on the chart this week (Glee, Bieber and Lady Antebellum) and one with three (Taylor Swift).

Shocking news? The Black Eyed Peas album is flopping out of the gate. After their massive success with their last album (especially single sales), it just goes to show that nothing guarantees long-term success. They are currently at 7th with a Friday prediction of 105-115k in sales. I mean, it’s over a 100K in sales which is always nice, but that looks pretty dismal next to their previous successes.

If this post seems a little thin on Idol news it’s because Idols are thinly represented on the chart. A grand total of 4 songs featuring Idols appear in the top 50 this week. That’s less than 1% of the songs on those albums. Remember when Idols used to own the charts? When they looked like they were taking over the industry? No worries about that this year. Only Carrie appears on the YTD top 50 album chart with 645,359 in sales for 23rd.

Now 36 is at 13th and features a song by each of Daughtry and Adam Lambert. Sitting at 17th is Jason Aldean’s leggy Country album which features a generally considered kick-a$$ duet with Kelly Clarkson. Now Christmas 4 is at 20 and features a Christmas song by Carrie Underwood.

This is the daily’s number thread. The gift that allows you to speak now, day and (O Holy) night.

CHART DATE: 12/06/2010
LAST UPDATE: 12/06/2010 14:37:15
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
4 1 SUSAN BOYLE THE GIFT 214,594
3 2 TAYLOR SWIFT SPEAK NOW 131,299
5 3 JACKIE EVANCHO O HOLY NIGHT 87,136
1 4 KANYE WEST MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED.. 79,652
10 5 GLEE CAST CHRISTMAS ALBUM 70,596
– 6 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 4 67,099
– 7 BLACK EYED PEAS BEGINNING 63,998
7 8 JUSTIN BIEBER MY WORLDS ACOUSTIC 61,031
2 9 NICKI MINAJ PINK FRIDAY 55,647
13 10 KEITH URBAN GET CLOSER 44,597

17 13 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 36 VARIOUS ARTISTS38,928

21 17 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 34,369

– 20 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL XMAS V.4 VARIOUS ARTISTS 29,920

Hits Daily Double

YTD numbers courtesy of 2m on Pulse.

 
  • Jae

    Hehe Am I first?? You know I am hear to say I sampled Subos holiday Album and its kinda nice. She has a sweet very sincere presence on the album. I can totally see why this will sell gangbusters this season. Simon is smat to have done a Xmas album for her. And this from a non Subo fan. Not surprised thr Foetus is doing well either. His EP is everywhere in stores. As is Taylor’s. With big displays.

  • Chicagolaw

    Seriously, I think people are just sick to death of the Black Eyed Peas. They are EVERYWHERE. The morning DJs on the Chicago KISS station were majorly dissing them the other day. I think some of their “coolness” is starting to wear off.

  • sr4mjc

    Congrats to Adam for reaching #1 album on Pop!

    http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4268/1onitunespop.jpg

    The BEP’s new era is terrible. And I like some of their previous stuff. Could be that too.

  • cwm

    Kirsten — thanks for the great thread intro! You never fail to entertain!

    sr4mjc — thanks for posting Adam’s Acoustic Live! itunes standing. Woohoo for #1 on Pop! And he’s sitting at #6 overall. :-)

  • Buffynut

    Both the BEP and Gaga had a fast burnout rate for me!
    Yay, for Adam making #1 on US i-Tunes Pop!

  • istersay

    Congrats to Adam!!

  • Valentin432

    Shocking news? The Black Eyed Peas album is flopping out of the gate. After their massive success with their last album (especially single sales), it just goes to show that nothing guarantees long-term success. They are currently at 7th with a Friday prediction of 105-115k in sales. I mean, it’s over a 100K in sales which is always nice, but that looks pretty dismal next to their previous successes.

    I reacted to that too when the HDD predictions came out too.
    I hope that means people are tired of the electro dance stuff we are hearing non stop on the radio. I doubt Gaga would struggle that much but only 100 tousand for the Peas after over 3 million albums sold the last time and so many hits on radio is really bad.

    Of the top 10, they are the only act that top 40 radio plays a lot.

  • Eileen99

    Both the BEP and Gaga had a fast burnout rate for me!

    Me, too, altho Gaga not as much, but I did get really tired of her music and hardly listen to it anymore.

    SuBo’s album is actually pretty nice, altho there are some weird song choices on there (Don’t Dream It’s Over). I bought it b/c I like Xmas music, and she has a great voice for traditional carols. She’s going to sell a ginormous amount of records over the next few weeks.

    Kirsten, great post – there are some acts that have had astonishing numbers this year. I didn’t realize LadyA sold that many albums, but good for them, I still love NYN and listen to it a lot.

    And wow, yikes for Idol albums this Christmas.

  • sr4mjc

    I know I’m only one of the 2,900,000 who isn’t buying this BEP era vs the last era. From the previews and the songs I’ve heard, the songs are just bad. There’s no ‘I gotta feeling’ in the bunch. I’m sure they’ll have some successful hits regardless, but I can see why people aren’t buying. I like electro, just not this mess. Interscope has been doing really well lately, I guess this isn’t going to be a smash for them.

    Pic of the Acoustic EP on the front page of a Chinese music site. Says there are 3 million people online. For something that was presumably very cheap to produce, RCA might make some coin off this interim release. (Not sure if China sells much, but it’s cool to see)

    http://twitpic.com/3doxog

    ETA: Just hit #5 Overall!

  • tinawina

    BEP’s album sucks.

    From our favorite leaking source ;), here’s the top 20 selling albums this Year to Date

    1 RECOVERY EMINEM 3,052,878
    2 NEED YOU NOW LADY ANTEBELLUM 2,850,941
    3 MY WORLD 2.0 JUSTIN BIEBER 2,052,317
    4 SPEAK NOW TAYLOR SWIFT 1,965,107
    5 THE FAME LADY GAGA 1,497,852
    6 SOLDIER OF LOVE SADE 1,280,723
    7 THANK ME LATER DRAKE 1,185,154
    8 RAYMOND V RAYMOND USHER 1,144,428
    9 THE E.N.D. (THE ENERGY NEVER DOES) BLACK EYED PEAS 1,067,819
    10 ANIMAL KE$HA 1,040,146
    11 THE FOUNDATION ZAC BROWN BAND 921,529
    12 MY WORLD (EP) JUSTIN BIEBER 895,355
    13 THE GIFT SUSAN BOYLE 878,423
    14 FAME MONSTER EP LADY GAGA 778,572
    15 FEARLESS TAYLOR SWIFT 774,722
    16 I DREAMED A DREAM SUSAN BOYLE 764,282
    17 REBIRTH LIL WAYNE 690,752
    18 NOW 33 VARIOUS ARTISTS 678,351
    19 TEENAGE DREAM KATY PERRY 676,384
    20 TO THE SEA JACK JOHNSON 673,947

    This are just sales that occurred in the calendar year 2010. It is crazy Susan Boyle’s album from last year is still in the top 20 for this year. Ditto Gaga and T Swifty. Yikes.

    Susan Boyle’s The Gift and Katy Perry will likely move up and perhaps Rhianna has a shot of ending up in the top 20? Maybe Kanye? I haven’t really looked at his numbers. But I don’t expect the order will be all that much different after the last week of December.

    Interesting.

  • imeanrun

    Pic of the Acoustic EP on the front page of a Chinese music site. Says there are 3 million people online. For something that was presumably very cheap to produce, RCA might make some coin off this interim release. (Not sure if China sells much, but it’s cool to see)

    LOL at the description of Adam!

  • Valentin432

    Susan Boyle’s The Gift and Katy Perry will likely move up and perhaps Rhianna has a shot of ending up in the top 20? Maybe Kanye? I haven’t really looked at his numbers. But I don’t expect the order will be all that much different after the last week of December.

    I think Kanye has a better shot at moving in the top 20 than Rihanna, he sold more in his first week than her in 2 weeks.
    I thought Katy had already sold more than 700 tousand cds?

  • tinawina

    I thought Katy had already sold more than 700 tousand cds?

    Nope. Female pop stars not named Gaga don’t sell albums worth crap anymore. LOL. But she should pass 700K this week, and really get going during the last three weeks of the year. Whatever she doesn’t get in the march to platinum she’ll makeup Grammy week, you just KNOW she’ll be performing.

    I think Kanye has a better shot at moving in the top 20 than Rihanna, he sold more in his first week than her in 2 weeks.

    Well hell then, if that is the case I wholeheartedly agree! LOL

  • GreatAdamFan

    Just hit #5 Overall!

    This is glamtastic news, let’s hope it reaches higher & higher! :)

  • jpfan

    With the HDD numbers in so far, Su Bo’s The Gift is already the #9 album of 2010 and Taylor has moved into the #3 slot.

    It’ll be interesting to see how many FYE albums iTunes will sell.
    They’re not known for selling a ton of albums with the exception of the first week. Supposedly the soundtrack for Burlesque was predicted to sell 20-25K digitally so that’s a rough idea of what a Top 10 on iTunes can sell. But some albums break 100K so it’s really impossible to know until the official sales numbers come out.

  • sma11ie

    Both the BEP and Gaga had a fast burnout rate for me!

    But the BEP’s have been around forever and have stuck together through the years, and evolved their sound a bunch of times. Remember Where Is The Love? That came out when I was in college. Loved that song. Yeah, this new BEP album might suck, but I think they’re creative and cool and will stick around to make another change in their sound to something that hits next album, or if not the one after. JMO. Gaga, on the other hand… I’m really curious to hear her next album. What I’ve heard from her so far (The Fame and Fame Monster, and all its variations) has all had one sound– granted a sound that really worked on radio thus far. But can she do it and have longevity in this business and reinvent herself in a way that works, as is required of most pop stars? The pressure’s on. Or maybe she can keep selling the same sound for a while longer. I’ve been pretty shocked/impressed with Taylor Swift doing so amazing with three albums now, doing pretty much the same thing despite not being a teenager anymore.

    Female pop stars not named Gaga don’t sell albums worth crap anymore.

    But they do sell singles like crazy and seem to have an easier time taking over Top 40 radio with each consecutive single than male pop stars…? I wonder why.

  • tinawina

    But they do sell singles like crazy and seem to have an easier time taking over Top 40 radio with each consecutive single than male pop stars…? I wonder why.

    Oh yeah. All these low album selling females are absolutely killing it in the singles department. And they do better on average in both departments than the male pop stars. I have no idea what that’s about.

    That said, the Taio Cruzes and Jason Derulos of the world sell a ridiculous amount of singles themselves. I know I did B.O.B.’s numbers out of curiousity one day and he was platinum domestically when you added in the album equivalent sales. I don’t cry for any of these dudes.

  • smeggingnuts

    Adam’s not a big digital seller but his rankings on iTunes and Amazon look promising. Maybe he can get 20k first week for his EP.

  • sr4mjc

    I’m really interested to hear Gaga’s new album. I don’t think The Fame or Fame Monster were put out as a sound that worked on radio, I think radio embraced her sound (eventually) and followed, along with a lot of acts. Not that there wasn’t some dance music before, but she set a big trend. And I think she’ll likely be setting the next trend in CHR, unless it’s soooo off the wall and obsurd they refuse it. I think she’ll swing more retro-Elton John his time around, throw in a dash of 80s ala ‘I’m Still Standing’. hell, leg warmers are coming back. I really have no idea what she’s got planned, but for some reason I think this might be the way might she’ll go. Looking forward to hearing it.

  • oceana

    It’s nice to see Jack Johnson in the top 20 of album sales for the year! Nice to see a mellow singer-songwriter doing so well. He’s amazing.

  • koshka

    It’ll be interesting to see how many FYE albums iTunes will sell.
    They’re not known for selling a ton of albums with the exception of the first week.

    Not expecting much in the way of sales.. but in the world of diminishing returns for Idols, I’ll allow myself to enjoy this just a little bit. :)

  • Studio57

    Oh yeah. All these low album selling females are absolutely killing it in the singles department. And they do better on average in both departments than the male pop stars. I have no idea what that’s about.

    Male PD and DJ’s. That’s what it’s about. I swear I think they fantasize about getting in Katy Perry’s pants if they play her enough on their stations. You play any song 100 times a day you’ll get those kind of numbers.

  • sr4mjc

    Male PD and DJ’s. That’s what it’s about. I swear I think they fantasize about getting in Katy Perry’s pants if they play her enough on their stations. You play any song 100 times a day you’ll get those kind of numbers.

    BINGO! Would be nice if they thought about their straight female listeners, LOL. Between Train and Posner, there’s a lot of fug…

  • koshka

    What I’ve heard from her so far (The Fame and Fame Monster, and all its variations) has all had one sound– granted a sound that really worked on radio thus far. But can she do it and have longevity in this business and reinvent herself in a way that works, as is required of most pop stars? The pressure’s on.

    I think it is going to be tough, but doable. In some ways she has backed herself into a corner with the creativity she has shown in costume design, stage settings & music. I’ve enjoyed all of it, but like the BEP it may not have legs over the long run. The 2 things she has going for her is that she can write and has a pleasant singing voice. Her voices doesn’t wow me, but it doesn’t have to as long as the package is there. The question is, how does she back herself out of this persona she created?

  • jpfan

    The major buyers of Pop music are young females. They like Katy Perry, Rihanna etc. so it’s not just about pervy PDs.

    And one of Idol’s biggest issues is that the median viewer is a middle aged woman. Not the kind of viewer than will vote for a Katy Perry type even though they dominate Top 40 radio.

    Although I’ll bet one million $ in Internet $ that a female pop singer will be the first winner of the American X Factor. Simon will make sure of that. ;)

  • tinawina

    Male PD and DJ’s. That’s what it’s about. I swear I think they fantasize about getting in Katy Perry’s pants if they play her enough on their stations.

    Well then what’s the excuse for Taio Cruz and Usher? :D

    The major buyers of Pop music are young females. They like Katy Perry, Rihanna etc. so it’s not just about pervy PDs.

    Pervy teen girls? Its not the first time hormonal teens have reeked havoc, won’t be the last. LOL

  • jpfan

    No the teen girls aren’t pervy. The just like the “look” of Katy Perry et all and see them as cool. The teen boys, that’s another story. ;)

    Although I can’t call any teens pervy. That’s just their hormones kicking in. I think “pervy” is reserved for older folks. ;)

  • sr4mjc

    Kinda early for predictions but digital could be 15k, and if they add in the 7k rumored physical sales, it should make the Top 200. We’ll see how long it holds in the Top 10 of itunes for now.

    They should have bundled FYE the album with the acoustic for $10. No one asked me though..

  • Mtlfan

    It’s nice to see Jack Johnson in the top 20 of album sales for the year! Nice to see a mellow singer-songwriter doing so well. He’s amazing.

    ITA. I bought this album and still enjoy the music. He’s very good

  • jpfan

    I think FYE will def make the BB200 ;). Album sales look meh this week and it looks like sales of 40K will put you in the Top 20 albums. Yikes.

  • smeggingnuts

    Sr4jmc
    Well they should have asked you. A cheap bundle of FYE and the EP would have beeen a great idea.

  • bentley1530

    The female pop stars may be killing it selling singles but the Jingle Balls seem to lean heavily toward the male pop stars. I guess it is because it is all those screaming teenage girls (or their parents) buying the tickets

  • sr4mjc

    I think FYE Acoustic Live! will def make the BB200. There, I fixed it for ya! I don’t think we’ll be seeing FYE back in the Top200. It might have with a bundle.. ;)

    The female pop stars may be killing it selling singles but the Jingle Balls seem to lean heavily toward the male pop stars. I guess it is because it is all those screaming teenage girls (or their parents) buying the tickets

    This is true! Not one female at at the Jingle Ball Tampa. It’s a sausage fest. Between Posner and Train, not even yummy sausage.

  • tinawina

    No the teen girls aren’t pervy. The just like the “look” of Katy Perry et all and see them as cool. The teen boys, that’s another story. ;)

    I was kidding. But seriously, do teen boys even buy anything? Besides metal and rap, that is. LOL

  • anovich

    The female pop stars may be killing it selling singles but the Jingle Balls seem to lean heavily toward the male pop stars. I guess it is because it is all those screaming teenage girls (or their parents) buying the tickets

    Need some guys that the chaperoning moms can look at while accompanying their daughters to the Jingle Ball. :)

  • jpfan

    Between Posner and Train, not even yummy sausage

    .

    Brain Bleach stat.

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    Farmer’s Daughter is now up to #62 on Amazon pop new releases, and #19 in rock.

  • sma11ie

    It’s a sausage fest. Between Posner and Train, not even yummy sausage.

    I need that vomiting emoticon right there. LOL. You know, Posner is just not okay, no doubt about it, but Train didn’t use to be gross. Then Pat Monahan went and became this old guy trying to look like a young/hip popstar in tight sparkly pants…

  • sr4mjc

    I need that vomiting emoticon right there. LOL. You know, Posner is just not okay, no doubt about it, but. Train didn’t use to be gross. Then Pat Monahan went and became this old guy trying to look like a young/hip popstar in tight sparkly pants…

    LMAO, sorry about the visual, passing brain bleach..

  • smeggingnuts

    Sr4jmc
    Hehe no b?each needed here I was laughing so hard I was crying and couldn’t breath. Between no vision and lack of oxygen to my brain I was never able to form a picture. Hehe

  • Trina

    As I asked yesterday, where is Crystal on the OVERALL album chart? A small sub-category like pop new releases really doesnt tell us much about how pre-orders are going.

    I wonder if SS got a sales boost from appearing on the VH1 countdown? Dont songs normally do so?

    I love SuBo’s Xmas CD :) I’m a sucker for nice traditional Xmas songs sung with a beautiful voice.

  • CindyM

    negativo:
    12/07/2010 at 11:53 am

    Farmer’s Daughter is now up to #62 on Amazon pop new releases, and #19 in rock.

    She’s actually lower overall today than she was yesterday. She was #103 overall on Amazon yesterday, now she’s #108. Lee has actually moved up on Amazon from #108 yesterday to #99 today. Probably because his album is on sale for $8.99 on Amazon.

  • CindyM

    Trina:
    12/07/2010 at 12:19 pm

    I wonder if SS got a sales boost from appearing on the VH1 countdown? Dont songs normally do so?

    Trina, it moved up alot of places on Itunes. It went from around #600 to #398, but I don’t think it got much higher.

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    Farmer’s Daughter is now up to #62 on Amazon pop new releases, and #19 in rock.

    Also, FD is the only album on the Amazon new release charts that is currently a pre-release.

  • Kirsten

    I was kidding. But seriously, do teen boys even buy anything? Besides metal and rap, that is. LOL

    Teen boys buy video games. Lots and lots and lots of video games.

    Eminem looks to have the best selling album of the year. Beiber is everywhere for having sold about the same amount across his three albums. Three million albums is very impressive in today’s day and age.

    Call of Duty: Black Ops sold 5.6 million copies in 24 hours. And those games aren’t cheap. That translates to $360M. In 24 hours. Worldwide, within 5 days, it had sold $650M. It was released on Nov 9th and estimates are that it has sold 18M copies.

    They probably also by videos because Avatar has sold over 9M units (for revenue of over $161M). [Parents also by videos because Toy Story 3 has moved 5.5M units in 3 weeks ($103M), How To Train Your Dragon has moved 4.3M and the last Harry Potter 7.9M. Apparently, Moms also buy DVDs because The Blind Side has sold 5.7M].

    Teen boys proably don’t have any money left to buy music.

  • Studio57

    jpfan:
    12/07/2010 at 11:16 am
    The major buyers of Pop music are young females. They like Katy Perry, Rihanna etc. so it’s not just about pervy PDs.

    It mostly is. As I said in my post if you play something 100 times a day, you will get alot of buyers.

    Tinawina- the same could be said for Cruz and DeRulo too but we were just talking about girl singers. PD’s love songs about hot girls as much as they love songs sung by hot girls. Oh, and they love rap. That’s pretty much it, lol. YMMV of course.

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    She’s actually lower overall today than she was yesterday. She was #103 overall on Amazon yesterday, now she’s #108. Lee has actually moved up on Amazon from #108 yesterday to #99 today. Probably because his album is on sale for $8.99 on Amazon.

    The up to the minute number shows Crystal at #70 in overall new releases. Lee is at #62.

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/new-releases/music/ref=pd_nr_pg_4?ie=UTF8&pg=4

  • Mary102

    First, Hooray for Adam! With very little advertisement beyond word of mouth among the fanbase on twitter, etc. the album is #5 overall on itunes after a whole day! That is fantastic!!

    Second, I have to say I don’t know what Gaga will do for the next album. I heard that one leaked song a little while ago, and it sounded like a weak version of The Fame stuff. I think she can definitely suffer burn out by not reinventing herself, because pop, imo, is already starting to shift a bit away from her sound, and is currently more male centric, imo.

    I hadn’t thought about the guys at all the Jingle Balls being there to bring in the female fans, but now I definitely see it, lol. I’m going to the Philly Jingle Ball, and yeah, even the female acts there (Selena Gomez) are geared toward teen girls. Then you have Bieber too to bring in the kids, and Adam there too, which is great exposure for him to a much younger audience \o/

  • CindyM

    negativo:
    12/07/2010 at 12:36 pm

    She’s actually lower overall today than she was yesterday. She was #103 overall on Amazon yesterday, now she’s #108. Lee has actually moved up on Amazon from #108 yesterday to #99 today. Probably because his album is on sale for $8.99 on Amazon.

    The up to the minute number shows Crystal at #70 in overall new releases. Lee is at #62.

    My post was about overall sales ranking, which I believe is what Trina was asking about. Those subcategories on Amazon including “new releases” don’t give a clear picture of where an album sales are relative to other releases. Either way, both of their Amazon rankings are low compared to prior years.

    Lee http://amzn.to/i9dhff
    Crystal http://amzn.to/dM5PEh

    Since Crystal is not in the top 100, you can only see her overall ranking by looking on “product details” on her album page.

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    Farmer’s Daughter is now at #150 on Itunes new music releases, 37 spots ahead of Live It Up. Not bad for a pre-release.

    http://www.windpowersports.com/music/new-releases.php

  • HermeticallySealed

    Negativo, the chart Cindy was talking about is the Overall Bestsellers list, not the Hot New Releases. She is still 108 on Bestsellers, but 71 on Hot New Releases. Funny, those charts move fast, I could have sworn she was up to 68 about five minutes ago.

  • smeggingnuts

    Second, I have to say I don’t know what Gaga will do for the next album. I heard that one leaked song a little while ago, and it sounded like a weak version of The Fame stuff. I think she can definitely suffer burn out by not reinventing herself, because pop, imo, is already starting to shift a bit away from her sound, and is currently more male centric, imo.

    Well if you want to know what she thinks of her new album “Born this way”

    “I promise you, I’ll never let you down. And not for nothing: The album’s finished and it’s fucking really good. So whatever this is, whatever you just did for all of us…I promise to give you the greatest album of this decade, just for you. The funny thing is that some people have reduced freedom to a brand. They think that it’s trendy now to be free. They think it’s trendy to be excited about your identity. When in truth, there is nothing trendy about Born This Way. This connection that we all share is something so much deeper than a wig or lipstick or an outfit, or a fucking meat dress. Born This Way is about what keeps us up at night and what makes us afraid.”

    Got that from perez

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    Negativo, the chart Cindy was talking about is the Overall Bestsellers list, not the Hot New Releases.

    Total sales volume is not very informative for brand new releases and pre-releases, so I prefer to see how these albums are doing in comparison with other new releases.

  • Tess

    The trouble with any of these placement lists on I-tunes and Amazon is that we have no way of placing the rankings in any kind of context. So based on Negativo’s information we know that as a new-release we know that at this precise moment in time Crystal is out-selling Lee but, I don’t believe, this ranking is accumulative. It is not saying that Crystal is outselling Lee over a given length of time.

    I have no ideas how these rankings work but they have to be based on a time frame otherwise someone like SuBo would always be ranked #1 on Amazon since she sells a ton there.

    I wish someone who is a statistical wizard could explain all this to me in layman’s terms.

    ETA: The best I can gather is that, say Adam) is currently getting the 5th highest purchases for his album of all the people that are currently purchasing. As the purchases slow down in frequency he will move down the chart as other albums are being purchased at a faster rate.

  • smeggingnuts

    iTunes Top 1000 songs
    55. Don’t You Wanna Stay (with Kelly Clarkson) – Jason Aldean
    144. Mama’s Song – Carrie Underwood
    222. Whataya Want from Me (Live at ENERGY Berlin 103.4) – Adam Lambert
    276. There’s a Place for Us – Carrie Underwood
    302. Undo It – Carrie Underwood
    326. September – Daughtry
    395. Mad World (Live at Glam Nation) – Adam Lambert
    412. Whataya Want from Me – Adam Lambert
    491. Hark! the Herald Angels Sing – Carrie Underwood
    534. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    571. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
    764. Soaked (Live at Glam Nation) – Adam Lambert
    791. Aftermath (Live at Glam Nation) – Adam Lambert
    793. Temporary Home – Carrie Underwood
    887. My Grown Up Christmas List – Kelly Clarkson
    956. Mary, Did You Know – Clay Aiken

    iTunes Top 1000 Albums

    5. Acoustic Live! – EP – Adam Lambert
    39. The Gift – Susan Boyle
    61. O Holy Night – EP – Jackie Evancho
    174. Live It Up – Lee DeWyze
    228. Play On – Carrie Underwood
    278. Back to Me – Fantasia
    285. The Gift Of Christmas – Tribute To Susan Boyle – Music Classics
    (WTH is this??)
    455. I Dreamed a Dream – Susan Boyle
    691. Leave This Town (Bonus Track Version) – Daughtry
    728. Carnival Ride – Carrie Underwood
    740. Some Hearts – Carrie Underwood

    I probably missed stuff sorry

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    iTunes Top 100 pop albums: http://www.windpowersports.com/music/pop-albums.php

    Farmer’s Daughter: #23
    Live It Up: #31

  • smeggingnuts

    negativo
    don’t forget #1 Acoustic Live! ;)

    oh and Carrie is #98 with Some Hearts

  • koshka

    iTunes Top 100 pop albums: http://www.windpowersports.com/music/pop-albums.php

    Sorry I don’t get it. Why would Adam’s show up at #1? As far as I know he hasn’t ranked that high.

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    negativo:
    don’t forget #1 Acoustic Live! ;)

    Good point!

  • aa618892

    Sorry I don’t get it. Why would Adam’s show up at #1? As far as I know he hasn’t ranked that high.

    Yeah, the Acoustic Live EP is still #1 Pop.

  • CindyM

    koshka:
    12/07/2010 at 1:44 pm

    iTunes Top 100 pop albums: http://www.windpowersports.com/music/pop-albums.php

    Sorry I don’t get it. Why would Adam’s show up at #1? As far as I know he hasn’t ranked that high.

    Adam’s Acoustic Live album is currently the top seller in the POP album category on Itunes. It is #5 in overall album sales on Itunes.

  • koshka

    oh I was looking @ overall. The sub lists don’t tell much of a story for me. But #1 is cool.

  • mmb

    Negativo your enthusiasm for crystal is terrific. And I hope for the best for her ( she was my favorite this past season). But those chart ranking just are not that impressive. Last year alli Adam and kris’ pre-sales all shot to the top ten of the iTunes pop chart ( at least for a period of time). And they were all ranked much higher on amazon I believe it was the same for the davids the prior year.

  • Buffynut

    sma11ie:

    12/07/2010 at 10:37 am
    Both the BEP and Gaga had a fast burnout rate for me!

    But the BEP’s have been around forever and have stuck together through the years, and evolved their sound a bunch of times. Remember Where Is The Love?

    True, those were the good ole days! But lately, their stuff is all sounding the same to me!

  • Trina

    In previous years the overall chart sure gave a decent glimpse into how pre-releases were doing. I don’t get what’s so different this year, but hey whatever you feel comfortable checking.

    ETA: I don’t remember much about last year but IIRC the Davids were in the top 10 OVERALL for quite some time. I know DC spent many weeks at #1 overall. Crystal supposedly has some big non-internet fanbase so maybe these online retailers aren’t great to gauge her numbers anyway.

  • artemis

    Negativo-
    The good news for Crystal is that evidently some who were sitting on the fence about her have heard her songs online, like them and have decided to preorder. Despite being featured on a banner on ITunes pop for over a week, she’s mainly hovered between the 50s and 60s on pop and been nowhere in the top 200 overall. Now, for the first time, her numbers are improving.
    Preordering mainly comes from the fanbase.ITunes and Amazon are currently the only place Crystal’s fans can buy her album. Lee’s fanbase has already bought.It won’t tell you much about Crystal’s first week sales to keep comparing her preorders to Lee’s Amazon and ITunes sales three weeks after his debut, when he is also selling in stores.

  • MalwareDie

    ERROR ALERT MJ.

    Susan Boyle’s album has sales coming from Christian outlets that are not included in the total. You have to manually add the numbers every week to get the correct number. Her real total is 686 (Street date violations) + 317,895 (first week sales) + 334,505 + 262,865 = 915,951. So, she isn’t behind Bieber, but ahead of him.

  • Q3

    On both iTunes and Amazon — Crystal is below where Lee was 1 week before release*, and is below where Allison was 1 week before release. Right now she is #106 on Amazon CD best seller list, and #139 on the iTunes album chart.

    There is no way to make lemonade out of those numbers — better than Lee just means that she will sell more than the 10K or so that Lee will do this week.

    Unless these numbers ramp up, Crystal is heading for a debut week that is lower than Allison Iraheta.

    I suppose that they could still pull a rabbit out of a hat, but I doubt it.

    * Lee had a $7.99 promo at Amazon on his presale so not comparable.

  • Q3

    MalwareDie:
    12/07/2010 at 2:39 pm

    Error alert MJ.

    Susan Boyle’s album has sales coming from Christian outlets that are not included in the total. You have to manually add the numbers every week to get the correct number. Her real total is 686 (Street date violations) + 317,895 (first week sales) + 334,505 + 262,865 = 915,951.

    Just impressive anyway you look at it! And this album will continue to sell at Christmas time for years.

  • koshka

    In previous years the overall chart sure gave a decent glimpse into how pre-releases were doing.

    I’m not watching the #s much this year. But from what I can see of many albums that are being released or are already released is that the position on the charts doesn’t say much about sales since sales are overall in the toilet. A ‘decent glimpse’ could mean 40K or 5K since it is all relative to how sales are overall.

  • pineappletree

    Barry Weiss is headed to UMG. What does this mean now? (posted in headlines too bc I didn’t know where to post it)

    http://www.allaccess.com/net-news/archive/story/84699/report-barry-weiss-heading-for-universal-music-gro?ref=mail_bulletin

  • http://twitter.com/kenostroff negativo

    Crystal just finished her album 3 weeks ago, has yet to release a single, and has indicated that the bulk of her album/single promotion will not begin until after January 1st. Also, much of the market is in Christmas sales at the moment, but when excluding Christmas sales her numbers are actually quite impressive.

    She is actually the only pre-release on the market to be charting at all.

    Objectively speaking, the numbers and facts reveal Crystal is in good shape to have a strong opening, and an even better January when her single is released and the real label promotion begins.

  • bigaifan

    smeggingnuts:
    12/07/2010 at 1:36 pm
    iTunes Top 1000 songs
    55. Don’t You Wanna Stay (with Kelly Clarkson) – Jason Aldean
    144. Mama’s Song – Carrie Underwood
    222. Whataya Want from Me (Live at ENERGY Berlin 103.4) – Adam Lambert
    276. There’s a Place for Us – Carrie Underwood
    302. Undo It – Carrie Underwood
    326. September – Daughtry
    395. Mad World (Live at Glam Nation) – Adam Lambert
    412. Whataya Want from Me – Adam Lambert
    491. Hark! the Herald Angels Sing – Carrie Underwood
    534. Sweet Serendipity – Lee DeWyze
    571. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
    764. Soaked (Live at Glam Nation) – Adam Lambert
    791. Aftermath (Live at Glam Nation) – Adam Lambert
    793. Temporary Home – Carrie Underwood
    887. My Grown Up Christmas List – Kelly Clarkson
    956. Mary, Did You Know – Clay Aiken

    Smegg,

    You missed IIHY by Adam which, as I write this, sits at #271.

  • Allison

    I was kidding. But seriously, do teen boys even buy anything? Besides metal and rap, that is. LOL

    Teen boys buy video games. Lots and lots and lots of video games…
    Teen boys proably don’t have any money left to buy music.

    My experience with my 14 yr old son is he buys video games, used, to save money, and if he can’t convert music from youtube to mp3 to put on his ipod he will buy metal genre only. The funny thing is he prefers to buy a physical cd if he can find what he wants. AS digital is now the norm, he likes the novelty of the CD.

  • sr4mjc

    http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?RSS&newsID=17450

    Interesting, with the banner disccussions lately. (Not surprising information)

  • CindyM

    pineappletree:
    12/07/2010 at 2:54 pm

    Barry Weiss is headed to UMG. What does this mean now? (posted in headlines too bc I didn’t know where to post it)

    http://www.allaccess.com/net-news/archive/story/84699/report-barry-weiss-heading-for-universal-music-gro?ref=mail_bulletin

    I imagine it means that RCA will hire someone else. UMG is handling all the new idols, so I imagine that Barry Weiss will be involved with them in some way. It may mean less support for the Idols currently on RCA Music Group labels, ie. all the idols. It also could facilitate moves for some idols without longterm contracts with RCA Music Group to move to UMG. It could have no effect on idols at all. But really, who knows?

  • Soberba

    And don’t see how anyone could consider Crystal’s numbers to be quite impressive, since we don’t have the sales numbers for her yet, and won’t get them for another two weeks. And if the rankings are showing that she’ll probably sell less than Allison, then she’s not set to have a strong opening at all. But I think her album is quite good, and could end up selling well (and even go gold) in the long run, if she gets radio to play her songs. And I do think some of her songs could be successful on radio. I love her single FD. But I’m not expecting her to have a strong opening week. YMMV.

  • Q3

    negativo:
    12/07/2010 at 2:56 pm

    Crystal just finished her album 3 weeks ago, has yet to release a single, and has indicated that the bulk of her album/single promotion will not begin until after January 1st. Also, much of the market is in Christmas sales at the moment, but when excluding Christmas sales her numbers are actually quite impressive.

    She is actually the only pre-release on the market to be charting at all.

    Objectively speaking, the numbers and facts reveal Crystal is in good shape to have a strong opening, and an even better January when her single is released and the real label promotion begins.

    Well there can always be a first time for anything but if that happened it would be going against every retail trend, and Idol music sales pattern for this to happen. The opening week has always been the highest selling week for Idol debuts.

    FD album and single will both be released for sale next week. So the single will pick up sales the week after Christmas but album sales fall dramatically in January — total album sales drop about -70%.

    Here are last year’s first week of January numbers….

    Kris Allen, Kris Allen (9,000, -71 percent, 228,000/2,000 digital, -3 percent, 36,000 digital total)

    Carrie Underwood, Play On (34,000, -78 percent, 1.183 million/7,000 digital, -19 percent, 119,000 digital total)

    Adam Lambert, For Your Entertainment (17,000, -72 percent, 434,000/3,000 digital, -34 percent, 54,000 digital total)

    Daughtry, Leave This Town (12,000, -65 percent, 882,000/3,000 digital, +11 percent, 148,000)

    Kelly Clarkson, All I Ever Wanted (5,000, -64, 815,000/1,000 digital, -3 percent, 170,000 digital total)

    Allison Iraheta, Just Like You (4,000, -64 percent, 74,000)

    The only time that weekly sales go up in January is with a major TV event — like Adam was on Oprah and FYE sales went up the next week.

    But I would expect that Crystal will have 40% to 70% of her total album sales by the beginning of January. So if you are rooting for her to have solid sales she really needs to have a strong opening week.

    Also, the new season of Idol will start and most casual fans will move on.

  • jtoms

    Q3:
    12/07/2010 at 3:32 pm

    The opening week has always been the highest selling week for Idol debuts.

    it’s also a rule that the opening week is the highest selling week for any album (you’ll have an outlier now and then though e.g. gaga)

    for crystal to accomplish the same, either her opening week would have to be very low, or her single starts smashing, and i’m talking top 40 on top40 and itunes.

  • Elliegrll

    And don’t see how anyone could consider Crystal’s numbers to be quite impressive, since we don’t have the sales numbers for her yet, and won’t get them for another two weeks. And if the rankings are showing that she’ll probably sell less than Allison, then she’s not set to have a strong opening at all.

    I don’t expect Crystal to top Allison’s first week numbers, but that’s not a guess that is based on Crystal’s Itunes or Amazon rankings. Given that the bulk of cd purchases still come from people buying physical cds, I don’t get how people can predict anything based on these rankings. At the most, all we can do is compare these rankings to how these albums rank on the Billboard 200. If Crystal’s album is ranked behind a bunch of albums that aren’t even in Billboard’s top 50, 100 or 200, then we know that these rankings don’t mean a lot.

  • Chicagolaw

    I think Crystal put together a pretty good album, but I see no way that her sales are going to be “strong.” No signs are pointing to big release week numbers. And, I don’t see her matching Lee.

  • Trina

    Lee was laughed at for selling only slightly more than Allison, now Crystal looks “ike she may sell even less and thats considered “strong”? Ok! Im curious to hear what some actual numerical predictions are. I’ve heard the platinum by May one but how about first week??

  • CindyM

    Given that the bulk of cd purchases still come from people buying physical cds, I don’t get how people can predict anything based on these rankings. At the most, all we can do is compare these rankings to how these albums rank on the Billboard 200. If Crystal’s album is ranked behind a bunch of albums that aren’t even in Billboard’s top 50, 100 or 200, then we know that these rankings don’t mean a lot.

    But Amazon does sell physical CDs and I think that market research shows that Amazon appeals to a little bit older music buyer, which is what many people say is going to be a great market for Crystal. Predicting based on Amazon and Itunes isn’t perfect, of course, but in the past it has been pretty reliable when comparing one idols sales to another. I thought that was what Negativo was comparing, Crystal’s rankings to Lee’s rankings.

  • Q3

    I imagine it means that RCA will hire someone else. UMG is handling all the new idols, so I imagine that Barry Weiss will be involved with them in some way. It may mean less support for the Idols currently on RCA Music Group labels, ie. all the idols. It also could facilitate moves for some idols without longterm contracts with RCA Music Group to move to UMG. But really, who knows?

    Barry Weiss is likely to be head of UMG NY and be charged with stemming the revenue and profit losses in the US. I do not think he will have much involvement with Idol artists at UMG. He will have much bigger artists and issues to deal with — not the least of which is Lady Gaga.

    If as expected, Rob Stringer, current chairman the Columbia/Epic Label Group, becomes the new CEO of Sony Music Entertainment there will be no issue for the Idols signed to Sony who have sales. He ran Sony UK which is filled with TV Reality Show artists, currently has Boyle and Glee on his labels, and has always spoken highly of TV-fame artists (and of Simon Cowell).

    Weiss moving to UMG is part of the war that has been going on within SME between the Sony execs and the BMG execs — and BMG lost. Here is a good article: http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-05-12/sonys-family-saga/

    If Stringer gets the SME CEO job, I would not be surprised to finally see the old BMG empire dismantled completely, and some major changes at RCA/Jive Record Group. But with Stringer anything is possible. Here’s an example: http://www.nydailynews.com/gossip/2010/11/23/2010-11-23_sony_music_label_group_chairman_rob_stringer_is_dubbed_fredo_to_brother_howards_.html

  • Q3

    I don’t expect Crystal to top Allison’s first week numbers, but that’s not a guess that is based on Crystal’s Itunes or Amazon rankings. Given that the bulk of cd purchases still come from people buying physical cds, I don’t get how people can predict anything based on these rankings. At the most, all we can do is compare these rankings to how these albums rank on the Billboard 200. If Crystal’s album is ranked behind a bunch of albums that aren’t even in Billboard’s top 50, 100 or 200, then we know that these rankings don’t mean a lot.

    The Amazon CD Chart has been a very reliable predictor of Idol CD sales for Idols. Lee was at #58 the week before his album was released.

    Crystal is now at #108 on the Amazon CD Chart. http://mjsbigblog.com/hdd-%E2%80%93-album-sales-prediction-%E2%80%93-nov-29-dec5.htm/comment-page-2#comment-858840

    For comparison on Amazon the week before release, Adam, Cook and Archie were in the Top 10 the entire week before their releases. Kris was mostly in the Top 20. Allison was in the 50′s and 60′s for this week a year ago.

  • AllenTX

    Crystal should do some promo on Amazon site. Amazon demo is right up her alley. Her current ranking there is not very encouraging tho. My guess of her first week sales would be around 25k.

  • FREIDAG

    iTunes Top 100 pop albums: http://www.windpowersports.com/music/pop-albums.php

    Farmer’s Daughter: #23
    Live It Up: #31

    Nice for Crystal. After listening to the previews I think I’m going to buy her album.

    And since I only live a few blocks away, I’m also seeing her at The Grove tomorrow! Should be great. I really enjoyed Kris’s performance there a couple of weeks ago.

  • bridgette12

    AllenTX:
    12/07/2010 at 4:12 pm
    Crystal should do some promo on Amazon site. Amazon demo is right up her alley. Her current ranking there is not very encouraging tho. My guess of her first week sales would be around 25k.

    25K is my guess also. Crystal’s opening week is not going to be pretty at all. But if you look back at season 9 of Idol, the tour, plus no media buzz, this was easily predicted.

  • glamertitis

    Adam is #2 in Pop in Canada (Black Eyed Peas are #1)
    Farmer’s Daughter nowhere to been seen in Canada charts(Top 200 in any category). I expected that.

  • bridgette12

    glamertitis:
    12/07/2010 at 5:37 pm
    Adam is #2 in Pop in Canada (Black Eyed Peas are #1)
    Farmer’s Daughter nowhere to been seen in Canada charts(Top 200 in any category). I expected that.

    Great for Adam, glad to see Canada likes the acoustic album. As for Crystal’s album, I don’t think her album is going to sell much outside the States.

  • tripp_ncwy

    Final HDD numbers are up.
    http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi
    LW TW artist / album label power index
    4 1 SUSAN BOYLE THE GIFT 267,350
    3 2 TAYLOR SWIFT SPEAK NOW 177,011
    5 3 JACKIE EVANCHO O HOLY NIGHT 129,810
    10 4 GLEE CAST CHRISTMAS ALBUM 128,456
    – 5 GLEE CAST GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 4 126,765
    - 6 BLACK EYED PEAS INTERSCOPE 117,066


    21 20 JASON ALDEAN MY KINDA PARTY 47,065

    17 21 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 36 VARIOUS ARTISTS 46,761

    – 28 NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL XMAS V.4 VARIOUS ARTISTS 41,145

  • lili_anne7

    Crystal’s numbers will go up once she starts her promo. I think her manager should focus on booking her for shows that cater to an older audience, because there is no way teens or 20 somethings are going to run out and buy this album. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, since older people tend to buy more albums. I’ve read that her fans are not the internet type, so maybe they’ll be purchasing more physical CDs.

  • Elliegrll

    But Amazon does sell physical CDs and I think that market research shows that Amazon appeals to a little bit older music buyer, which is what many people say is going to be a great market for Crystal.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not paying extra for shipping for a new cd that I can buy at any number of local retailers.

  • Eriko

    Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not paying extra for shipping for a new cd that I can buy at any number of local retailers.

    If you buy 3, you get free shipping :)

  • larc

    Monitored radio adds for Idol alumni this week:

    4 – Adam Lambert – Sleepwalker (14)
    4 – Lee DeWyze – Sweet Serendipity (44)
    3 – Katharine McPhee – Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas (14)
    2 – Fantasia – I’m Doin’ Me (120)
    1 – Adam Lambert – If I Had You (253)
    1 – Carrie Underwood – Hark! The Herald Angels Sing (20)
    1 – Carrie Underwood – The First Noel (4)
    1 – Carrie Underwood – What Child Is This (9)
    1 – Chris Sligh – Only You Can Save (21)
    1 – Daughtry – September (286)
    1 – Katharine McPhee – It’s Not Christmas Without You (1)

    In addition (since it’s basically his song):

    26 – Jason Aldean/Kelly Clarkson – Don’t You Wanna Stay (86)

  • CindyM

    Adds are closed:

    Adds:

    Adam 4-Sleepwalker Canada-Hot AC
    Adam 1 -IIHY -Hot A
    Carrie 1-Hark The Herald Angles Sing -Country
    Carrie 1-The First Noel -Country
    Carrie 1-What Child Is This -Country
    Chris Sligh 1-Only You Can Save -Christian AC
    Daughtry 1-September -AC
    Fantasia 2-I’m Doin’ Me -Urban
    Jason Aldean/Kelly Clarkson 26-Don’t You Wanna Stay 4 Canada Country, 1 Canada-Hot AC, 21 Country
    Jim Brickman W/ Matt Giraud 2- Thank You -AC
    Lee 4-Sweet Serendipity – Hot AC
    Kat McPhee 3-Have Yourself A Very Little Christmas =AC

    Kat McPhee (1)-It’s Not Christmas Without You (AC)
    Santana (1)-Photograph f/Chris Daughtry (Hot AC)

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Objectively speaking, the numbers and facts reveal Crystal is in good shape to have a strong opening, and an even better January when her single is released and the real label promotion begins.

    What estimated level of sales do you consider a “strong opening”?

  • Tess

    I’ve read that her fans are not the internet type, so maybe they’ll be purchasing more physical CDs.

    How does anyone even begin to qualify this statement? Is her fanbase deep dark rural Americana where the internet hasn’t penetrated 100 years of backwater?

    I, personally, don’t know a single person over the age of 18 that doesn’t have a computer and that doesn’t, at least, know the rudimentary facts of internet usage. Even the grandmas older than me seem to have access to a computer ’cause I sure get a lot of great grandkid pictures via email…and I have yet to ask someone for their email address and have them say “huh?”.

    People may have different internet habits but most of us at least have access and some knowledge. If someone is interested in getting current information it isn’t that hard to type in someone’s name…and typing in Crystal Bowersox would let you know pretty quickly that she has a new album releasing next week.

    I don’t think the idea that the internet is still a mystery holds much value anymore. Almost every magazine or news program or government agency uses it now. In fact the IRS is no longer sending out automatic tax forms for 2010 since the majority of US taxpayers fill out their forms via a computer and a vast amount pay or claim their refunds via electronic methods.

    So I’m totally not buying the “her fans don’t use the internet”.

  • larc

    Allison:
    My experience with my 14 yr old son is he buys video games, used, to save money, and if he can’t convert music from youtube to mp3 to put on his ipod he will buy metal genre only. The funny thing is he prefers to buy a physical cd if he can find what he wants. AS digital is now the norm, he likes the novelty of the CD.

    Maybe he has a discriminating ear for audio. Downloaded tracks are always compressed and are never as good sonically as those on commercial CDs.

  • googletot

    I, personally, don’t know a single person over the age of 18 that doesn’t have a computer and that doesn’t, at least, know the rudimentary facts of internet usage.

    I have 4 close friends that live out of state that none of them have computers or even want one! I wish they did — would make it a lot easier to communicate more often with them.

  • lili_anne7

    So I’m totally not buying the “her fans don’t use the internet”

    Wow talk about overreacting. I should have expressed myself a little clearer. When I said Crystal’s fans were not the “internet type”, I meant that they were not likely to follow Crystal on twitter/ facebook, or search through idol blogs. I wasn’t saying that her fans didn’t have access to the internet, that’s completely ridiculous.

  • cristististi

    nvm

  • steph6449

    I hope Crystal breaks 20,000 albums sold her first week, but I’m not at all confident she will looking at the early indications, lack of promo/radio coverage, her small visible online following, Jive aiming at AAA, etc.

    Most of those factors were looking considerably more favorable for Allison last year, and we know how that turned out.

  • girlygirl

    Before anyone gets too excited about where Crystal’s album ranks on iTunes, remember that Kris’ album went top #1 on the iTunes pop chart and to #4 overall when it was first released. I believe Adam’s went to #2 on the pop chart and #5 overall when it was released.

    Then there is the fact that digital sales are a small portion of total sales to begin with.

    So while it’s nice that Crystal’s album is moving up the chart, I don’t know if that is going to result in a big number saleswise.

  • Eriko

    I must me missing and/or misunderstanding something. But as someone who for the first year is following a blog like this one, it seems to me that the actual material the AI contestants put out, has very little to do with how well they sell! Fan following during the show, buzz, promo´s and marketing seems to someone like me, be the main factor how well an album does, at least the first weeks. It´s as if a certain percentage of someones fan base will buy no matter how good or bad the actual product is. So, the bigger the fan base, buzz and popularity during the show, more sales, regardless of how good/bad the product is. But I must be missing something, otherwise the labels wouldn´t try to control so much and spend money on writers and producers. What am I missing? What could an Idol do or not do AFTER the show, musically, that would effect the initial sales numbers? How much is actually about the music?

  • luly

    From the spincrease HAC chart:
    KRIS ALLEN Alright With Me 41 9

  • sr4mjc

    About the physical Acoustic Live! EPs, I don’t think they’ll be counting in next week’s sales. Someone got an email about their order. No one that have ordered have gotten any indication they are shipping this week. Here’s the response.

    http://www.twitlonger.com/show/7cbjar

    They don’t count until they ship, correct?

  • sr4mjc

    But as someone who for the first year is following a blog like this one, it seems to me that the actual material the AI contestants put out, has very little to do with how well they sell!

    Initial first week sales, usually! I think that’s diminished some over the years. After that, it’s about material, promo, management, radio and a whole lotta luck. And most importantly, radio pds willing to play the music or a whole lot of $$ payola.

    What would affect initial sales besides their popularity on the show? Good question. Media buzz I guess? A good lead single BEFORE album drop helps.

  • MonochromaticFriend

    Eriko: So, the bigger the fan base, buzz and popularity during the show, more sales, regardless of how good/bad the product is. But I must be missing something, otherwise the labels wouldn´t try to control so much and spend money on writers and producers. What am I missing? What could an Idol do or not do AFTER the show, musically, that would effect the initial sales numbers? How much is actually about the music?

    I think big producers and big writers can bring buzz, but I think the bottom line is that the CD’s also need to have strong singles to continue boosting their sales. Adam, Kris, the Davids, Jordin Sparks, etc. have all had radio hits. Jordin Sparks opened with around ~100K but her album went platinum after a string a radio hits. I might venture that a song with a good pedigree is more likely to be played on the radio, although that’s just a guess.

    There may be more factors (critical buzz, etc.) but hit singles seems to be one of the big ones, to me.

  • Elliegrll

    They don’t count until they ship, correct?

    They should count once they have been paid for. Someone posted a message from the busy RCA mod where he stated the week where they would be counted by Soundscan.

    There may be more factors (critical buzz, etc.) but hit singles seems to be one of the big ones, to me.

    I think it’s about hit singles and promotion, more than anything else. Using Jordin is a great example, and we can look at people like Daughtry and Carrie, whose albums continue to appear on the BB 200, because they released so many hit singles that continue to get airplay.

  • wjmtv

    Eriko:

    What am I missing? What could an Idol do or not do AFTER the show, musically, that would effect the initial sales numbers? How much is actually about the music?

    I’m finding that in spite of appearing on Idol, once you get past their fanbase, these kids are “new artists.” No one outside the Idol bubble has heard of them. In the comments on Lee’s Sunday night performance, is one from a person who was there. She said she heard several people asking, “Who is this guy?” They were there to see Train, or Guster, or someone else who was performing that night, and Lee could have been the queen of England for all they knew.

    So, *my* answer to your question (and I’m sure there will be others with more knowledge of the industry who will answer it as well) is “Nothing. There is nothing they can do other than get out there and perform and try to get their stuff played on the radio. Just like any other new artist.”

    Fortunately, that still leaves plenty of room for it to be “about the music.”

  • mmb

    It’s highly unlikely that the physical CDs will count toward first week sales of Adams ep. None have shipped yet, some people have had their credit cards charged, others haven’t. So there seems to be a ton on confusion as to when they will ship and whether they have been paid for yet. So regardless of whether it counts as a sale upon shipment or when you are actually charged for the purchase, neither seems to be happening in the case of the ep. :(

  • sr4mjc

    They should count once they have been paid for.

    There seems to be discrepancy on this too. Some fans are saying they were charged, some not. Paypal buys were charged, regular credit card payment is not. Seems a clusterf*ck. I was charged the day I ordered. *shrugs*

  • Q3

    Elliegrll:
    12/07/2010 at 10:06 pm

    They don’t count until they ship, correct?

    They should count once they have been paid for. Someone posted a message from the busy RCA mod where he stated the week where they would be counted by Soundscan.

    To count as a Soundscan retail sale, a direct order must have a shipping label on it and verified shipment ID AND the payment must be processed. Same rules for booking any retail sale.

    RCA Ed posted that AL! orders would be shipped this week and reported in the first week’s sales on 12/13/10.

    ETA: If it was in-stock when ordered, the transaction would be processed when ordered. If it was ordered when the CD was sold out, the charge would be pended until the merchandise is available, then the transaction would be processed when stock exists. CD is current sold out, and statused as back ordered.

  • Q3

    mmb:
    12/07/2010 at 10:15 pm

    It’s highly unlikely that the physical CDs will count toward first week sales of Adams ep. None have shipped yet, some people have had their credit cards charged, others haven’t. So there seems to be a ton on confusion as to when they will ship and whether they have been paid for yet. So regardless of whether it counts as a sale upon shipment or when you are actually charged for the purchase, neither seems to be happening in the case of the ep. :(

    They have until Saturday 12/11/10 to ship and count it this week.

    ETA: girlygirl: Adam’s FYE was #1 on iTunes for 1 hour the day of release — traded places with Lady Gaga’s Fame Monster, #2 on Amazon CDs to Susan Boyle, #1 on Amazon MP3. Ended up #3 on the Billboard 200.

  • sr4mjc

    ETA: If it was in-stock when ordered, the transaction would be processed when ordered. If it was ordered when the CD was sold out, the charge would be pended until the merchandise is available, then the transaction would be processed when stock exists. CD is current sold out, and statused as back ordered.

    Once they considered it ‘sold out’ you couldn’t place any more orders. Unless they truly took more initial orders than they had stock from the first pressing and then some of the first round of orders are going to be held to press #2. Which kinda stinks. Sucks if the numbers don’t count and sucks for the fans who are waiting for the EP.

    I’ll give them until Saturday, LOL

  • steph6449

    Danny got to #1 overall album on iTunes also for a while, and #2 on Amazon when his album came out. From a snapshot for March 6th:

    Album: ‘My Best Days’
    iTunes Overall Albums: #1 US, #5 Canada
    iTunes Country Albums: #1 US, #1 Canada, #2 UK
    Amazon Overall Albums: #2 US
    Amazon Country Albums: #1 US

    Don’t remember if he ever hit #1 on amazon at a different time that week, possibly not. I don’t recall as well on the pre-release period, but his album pre-sale was visible in a number of the amazon.com charts.That was probably when the album sale projections were somewhere below 50,000, before the nice boost he got from his AI appearance.

    I don’t see anything in the early chart tracking for Crystal’s album that leads me to expect a sizable sale result, when you compare to where other recent AI releases have been charting on the eve of their album launch.

    How do her numbers compare to where David A’s pre-release figures were charting for his second album? That might be an interesting comparison, and recent.

  • gangreen29

    I, personally, don’t know a single person over the age of 18 that doesn’t have a computer and that doesn’t, at least, know the rudimentary facts of internet usage.

    I don’t really think that there is a huge group of Crystal fans out there without reliable internet access, but I do think there is a huge group of people out there without that luxury. Quite frankly I know many people who cannot afford to have a computer and internet access in their homes. I think people sometimes take their own privilege and good fortune for granted.

  • Elliegrll

    All Access posted their year end Hot Picks, which is a list where industry insiders (PDs, promoters, label execs., people like that) list their top five songs in various formats. http://www.allaccess.com/top40-mainstream/hot-picks/year-end

    http://www.allaccess.com/hot-modern-ac/hot-picks/year-end

    I’m happy to see that the VP of adult/pop at Jive listed LLWD. And I don’t know if he meant LLWD, but a PD put AWM on his list.

    Daughtry, Carrie and Adam also have songs that appear on these lists.

  • mmb

    I am curious to see whether they did continue to take orders after they sold out. I placed an order the day they went on sale, got a confirmation email and an order number. But my credit card was never charged. And I’m getting a status message on my order that says ” preorder. Sold out”. But it sounds like everyone has that message. So who knows what the heck is going on

  • gferna

    everybody STFU and look at tha real thing guy doing what he does best!!!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqhbesTbcfA

  • Eileen99

    I’m happy to see that the VP of adult/pop at Jive listed LLWD. And I don’t know if he meant LLWD, but a PD put AWM on his list.

    I was happy to see the Jive exec list LLWD as well.

    I wondered if KMHX in Santa Rosa meant to list LLWD instead, but Kris is headlining their Christmas show this weekend. Maybe this means he’s going to start playing it this week. We’ll see. KWYE in Fresno added it last week and played it 26 or so times in the last 7 days. Hopefully KMHX will do the same. WTMX in Chicago played it again last night in their new music hour, so the song keeps hanging around…..

    That seems strange RCA wasn’t ready to process & ship those orders for Adam’s CD. Hopefully they get everything sorted out quickly. I know I’d be really irritated if I was waiting for one, I remember how ticked I was when I had to wait what seemed like an eternity (but was really probably only an extra hour or so) for Kris’ iTunes pass to download when everyone else got their regular pre-order downloaded right away.

  • Q3

    gangreen29:
    12/07/2010 at 10:46 pm

    I, personally, don’t know a single person over the age of 18 that doesn’t have a computer and that doesn’t, at least, know the rudimentary facts of internet usage.

    I don’t really think that there is a huge group of Crystal fans out there without reliable internet access, but I do think there is a huge group of people out there without that luxury. Quite frankly I know many people who cannot afford to have a computer and internet access in their homes. I think people sometimes take their own privilege and good fortune for granted.

    US internet access at home is nearly 75% — over half have high-speed access at home. http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0403/

    When you add in people who regularly access the internet from work, school or libraries, or other locations, over 85% of Americans regularly access the internet.

    Most of the remaining 15% are very old, very poor, or in institutions — in other words not likely Crystal album buyers.

    Even the vast majority of Country music buyers who are older than average and more likely to by CDs in traditional stores, have internet access.

    Crystal may have some hidden pool of fans who do not shop online but doubtful that they do not have internet access from computers and/or smart phones. And if her fans are typical singer-songwriter music buyers, they are aged 25-60, white and well educated. That would make them look like Amazon buyers.

  • Q3

    Once they considered it ’sold out’ you couldn’t place any more orders. Unless they truly took more initial orders than they had stock from the first pressing and then some of the first round of orders are going to be held to press #2. Which kinda stinks. Sucks if the numbers don’t count and sucks for the fans who are waiting for the EP.

    I’ll give them until Saturday, LOL

    I’ve decided to cut them a break until Saturday, too. :) I didn’t plan to open my CD and Poster anyway! Just wanted a real copy of it.

    RCA Ed posted earlier today that they are working on the second CD release and the DVD. Then he deleted the post. But no straight story on when the first batch will ship.

    BYW my credit card was charged.

  • gangreen29

    US internet access at home is nearly 75% — over half have high-speed access at home. http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0403/

    Which means 25% of Americans do not. I prefer they are not brushed aside, because it is their reality. That was what my post was about, not trying to prove something about Crystal.

  • Fullmoon

    US internet access at home is nearly 75% — over half have high-speed access at home. http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0403/

    That’s a lot higher than I thought it was. If Crystal fans who
    “supposedly” don’t use the internet falls in the 25% she is in a lot of trouble than, but I don’t buy that her fans don’t have access to the internet.

  • girlygirl

    I’m confused — what is the “real promo” Crystal is supposed to get in January? As far as I know, the only thing that is happening in January is that her single will get an official radio add date. Does she have any major appearances lined up for after the New Year? Because I haven’t heard about any. All the major promo (Leno, etc) has been set up for the next week or so — not for January. And January is usually a very bad month for album sales in general.

    Who knows whether Jive will actually promote FD to the radio. Based on their recent record with Archie, Allison and Kris, they may simply just wait to see if radio picks it up without doing much to push it. For Crystal’s sake, I hope they actually do actively promote it. But I’m not going to believe it until I actually see it

  • Truthiness

    My guess of her first week sales would be around 25k.

    25K seems a bit high to me. I would put her around 18-20K. Just my guesstimate

  • Q3

    Who knows whether Jive will actually promote FD to the radio. Based on their recent record with Archie, Allison and Kris, they may simply just wait to see if radio picks it up without doing much to push it. For Crystal’s sake, I hope they actually do actively promote it. But I’m not going to believe it until I actually see it

    Looks like Crystal is getting more promotion than Allison got but not much more. She has a couple of nice TV appearances in December — hopefully they will result in sales and Jive will decide to invest in her. But initial presale numbers usually tell the story on Idols.

  • Q3

    gangreen29:
    12/07/2010 at 11:36 pm

    US internet access at home is nearly 75% — over half have high-speed access at home. http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0403/

    Which means 25% of Americans do not. I prefer they are not brushed aside, because it is their reality. That was what my post was about, not trying to prove something about Crystal.

    Actually 15% of Americans do not have access to the internet at home, school or work. 25% do not have internet at home.

    I did not brush anyone aside — I just posted the numbers and my opinion that the people who do not have Internet access at home, work or school,do not seem to be likely Crystal album buyers.

  • Dlynne

    What could an Idol do or not do AFTER the show, musically, that would effect the initial sales numbers? How much is actually about the music?

    That would be the million dollar question. I think if anyone knew the answer, it would be a slam dunk. I think it comes down to a whole lot of luck. Even if everything is done just right, an album still might not do well.

    ETA: Here’s a case of the stars aligning: Christina Perri’s best friend gave a demo to a choreographer of So You Think You Can Dance. The producers allowed the choreographer to use it. The night before the performance, she and her manager very quickly got into the studio and put the recording on iTunes, just in case. The song started selling immediately after the show aired. She sold over 100,000 units right out of the gate.

    Christina didn’t have a label or any promotion at all. She was an unknown. In fact, she was a waitress who had a few songs on youtube. She then went on to sign with Atlantic within a few weeks and recorded a quick EP and made a music video. She’s been on a few talk shows and she’s played a few gigs but she’s still virtually unknown, yet her album is selling well and that song is getting major airplay now. All of this occurred this past fall when not much of anything was selling.

  • Elliegrll

    I’m confused — what is the “real promo” Crystal is supposed to get in January?

    Real promo refers to radio promotion, but the only problem with the theory that this will lead to Crystal’s album doing well in January, is that it will take the song(s) more than a four weeks to saturate radio. I think Hold On is the song that will be pushed, since the only reason why I can see them releasing two singles is because their early data is telling them that stations aren’t going to play Farmer’s Daughter.

    I did not brush anyone aside — I just posted the numbers and my opinion that the people who do not have Internet access at home, work or school,do not seem to be likely Crystal album buyers.

    The vast majority of idol viewers, and music purchasers, don’t post on internet message boards, so there is no way for us to use internet traffic to predict how popular someone is.

  • Ratna12

    Eileen99: I know I’d be really irritated if I was waiting for one, I remember how ticked I was when I had to wait what seemed like an eternity (but was really probably only an extra hour or so) for Kris’ iTunes pass to download when everyone else got their regular pre-order downloaded right away.

    A mere hours ? I had to wait for a full week and after repeated e-mails before my ITune pass downloaded.
    I was so mad that I went back again to Walmart and bought an extra copy of Kris CD.

  • Montavilla

    Here’s my best guess about what’s going on with the shipping of the ALAL! EPs. This is based on having worked in a call center.

    The system will take your credit card number when you order, but not charge you until the item ships. So, if the charge shows up on your card, then the EP should be either in the mail, or sitting on the shipping dock or truck (on it’s way to the post office).

    If your card hasn’t been charged, that’s not a cause for panic. It’s going to take a few days (maybe more than a few days) to ship out however many EPs were pressed. Hopefully, they’ll all ship by the 11th and thus be counted by the 13th. Because, cool, then we’ll know how many they actually pressed for the first shipment. (I know that RCA Ed said they sold 7,000 right away, but I’m not sure that’s the amount they pressed. That’s just the point in time when they realized they needed to press more.)

    However, it may take longer than the 11th to send them all out. This is kind of a strange situation, I’m sure, for RCA, to be sending out retail orders, rather than wholesale. It’s a very different procedure. The hang-up could simply be that they’re having to print out and affix more shipping labels than normal. Which means hiring some temps to do that, and training them. Or not having enough boxes that can hold a varying number of cds.

    Anyway, my guess would be that if you were able to order then you are set–although the cds may take longer than you’d like to reach you.

    Since the Adam Lambert Global store lists the EP as SOLD OUT right now, my guess is that they’re still working on getting that second pressing (with its minor art change). To my mind, it’s silly that they aren’t taking backorders (orders for which they don’t have stock ordered yet), because that would help them a lot in figuring out how many cds to press, and whether or not they’ll need to go into a third pressing. But I’m not RCA. Maybe they fear causing anger if they start taking orders before they have a firm date as to when the new cds will be ready.

  • sr4mjc

    To my mind, it’s silly that they aren’t taking backorders (orders for which they don’t have stock ordered yet), because that would help them a lot in figuring out how many cds to press, and whether or not they’ll need to go into a third pressing.

    I can’t figure this out either, unless they never really intended a second press. I don’t get it at all.

  • mmb

    FWIW, i sent a customer service inquiry to myplaydirect/sony/rca, whoever the heck they are and received a response that my order was being processed and that my credit card would not be charged until the product starts shipping from their warehouse. It seems that people who paid through paypal were charged right away for some reason, but that people who just entered their credit card number through the site were not. It was always my understanding that credit cards were not charged until producgt actually shipped (seems to be the case with most internet shopping sites). Anyway, hopefully this means that some day in the not too distant future i will actually get a physical copy of the Acoustic Live cd. when that day will be? who the heck knows.

  • lucy

    glamertitis:
    12/07/2010 at 5:37 pm
    Adam is #2 in Pop in Canada (Black Eyed Peas are #1)
    Farmer’s Daughter nowhere to been seen in Canada charts(Top 200 in any category). I expected that.

    I think I would push in Canada for Farmers’ Daughter, if I were Jive. Compared to in the US, folk-related stuff has always had a quite strong following in Canada. I know the country’s not a very big market, but they do have a long tradition of embracing folk-oriented and roots-oriented musicians warmly.

  • lucy

    But Amazon does sell physical CDs and I think that market research shows that Amazon appeals to a little bit older music buyer, which is what many people say is going to be a great market for Crystal.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not paying extra for shipping for a new cd that I can buy at any number of local retailers.

    Yeah, but what you can get at Amazon, and what I expect may appeal to a lot of older music buyers with diverse tastes, is the opportunity to add to your shopping cart various obscure albums, old and new, that you really *can’t* find at the local retailers, now that there are so few small, independent record stores. Picking up those three albums that get you free shipping becomes pretty easy when you essentially have every album ever made to pick from! I think the Amazon audience could be a real long-term boon to Crystal, if they promote her well over there.

  • lucy

    and an even better January

    Well, the problem with this is that, as far as I have seen, pretty much *nothing* sells in January. That’s why I’ve been skeptical of how supportive Jive is being of her, when she said that pushing the thing in January is their plan. In a season where sales for everybody, no matter how hot and spectacular, go into the tank, how are they actually going to spur buyers to part with their cash (of which they don’t have much because they blew it on the holidays)? They know about the January/February sales tank, too, so are they serious about pushing? Have they got some magic plan that will work here when nobody’s plans for sales seem to work for anybody in those months?

  • lucy

    I don’t really think that there is a huge group of Crystal fans out there without reliable internet access, but I do think there is a huge group of people out there without that luxury. Quite frankly I know many people who cannot afford to have a computer and internet access in their homes. I think people sometimes take their own privilege and good fortune for granted.

    Yeah, you’re certainly right about that. We take it way for granted and shouldn’t.

    I do think it’s a bit of a leap, though, to say that folks who can’t afford Internet connections are nevertheless buying cds from new artists as soon as they come out. I spent quite a lot of years living from hand to mouth, and music buys were part of my life very very seldom in those days!

  • jpfan

    Until today’s numbers thread here are Brian’s album numbers (more to come):

    Carrie Underwood, Play On (14,000, -23%, 1.842 million total) (#85 Billboard 200)
    Fantasia, Back to Me (11,000, -12%, 341,000) (#111 BB200)
    Lee DeWyze, Live It Up (9,000, -35%, 63,000) (#122 BB200)
    Danny Gokey, My Best Days (1,000, -38%, 195,000)
    Jason Castro, Who I Am (1,000, -52%, 6,000)
    Mandisa, It’s Christmas (less than 1,000, +51%, 24,000)
    Clay Aiken, Merry Christmas With Love (less than 1,000, +63%, 1.415 million)
    Mandisa, True Beauty (less than 1,000, -39%, 216,000)
    Chris Sligh, The Anatomy of Broken (less than 1,000, -37%, 5,000)
    Mandisa, Freedom (less than 1,000, -67%, 130,000)

  • tinawina

    That’s why I’ve been skeptical of how supportive Jive is being of her, when she said that pushing the thing in January is their plan. In a season where sales for everybody, no matter how hot and spectacular, go into the tank, how are they actually going to spur buyers to part with their cash (of which they don’t have much because they blew it on the holidays)?

    I’m pretty sue Gina Orr was talking about pushing the single to radio in January. Which makes sense, because the songs really weren’t ready in time to push before the freeze.

    Obviously neither Lee or Crystal is going to have a big Idol fan sales fest in Christmas. So for both of them, success will depend of getting their music out to potential markets over time, like more typical new artists. So we’ll see what happens.

  • bridgette12

    jpfan:
    12/08/2010 at 9:01 am
    Until today’s numbers thread shows here are Brian’s album numbers (more to come):

    Glad to see Fantasia still selling, hopefully she will get bigger numbers closer to Christmas.

  • bridgette12

    lucy:
    12/08/2010 at 8:19 am
    I think I would push in Canada for Farmers’ Daughter, if I were Jive. Compared to in the US, folk-related stuff has always had a quite strong following in Canada. I know the country’s not a very big market, but they do have a long tradition of embracing folk-oriented and roots-oriented musicians warmly.

    I think Canada is a great market, their our neighbor and have similar taste in music. Just this past year Carrie, Daughtry and Adam have racked up some great album sales there. I think it’s a good thing to promote the Idols in Canada and hopefully get to tour there.

  • tinawina

    Glad to see Fantasia still selling, hopefully she will get bigger numbers closer to Christmas.

    I think after this week’s dip everything starts going back up again, with a big jump right before Christmas. Fanny’s solid.

    I know the country’s not a very big market,

    Its actually one of the biggest ones once you get past the US, Japan, and the UK. I think it is number 5? It’s one of the top 8 at least. And they get Idol there, so yeah Jive should go for it!

  • wjmtv

    lucy:
    12/08/2010 at 8:19 am
    I think I would push in Canada for Farmers’ Daughter, if I were Jive. Compared to in the US, folk-related stuff has always had a quite strong following in Canada. I know the country’s not a very big market, but they do have a long tradition of embracing folk-oriented and roots-oriented musicians warmly.

    If the US had produced Gordon Lightfoot, we’d probably embrace folk a little more too. ;)

  • lucy

    I’m pretty sue Gina Orr was talking about pushing the single to radio in January. Which makes sense, because the songs really weren’t ready in time to push before the freeze.

    Obviously neither Lee or Crystal is going to have a big Idol fan sales fest in Christmas. So for both of them, success will depend of getting their music out to potential markets over time, like more typical new artists. So we’ll see what happens.

    Yeah, you’re right. I kind of misstated what I meant.

    I know they are talking about the push to radio. But my (convoluted … how surprising!) point is — The label only pushes things to radio so that they can get *sales* out of it; they get nothing from actual radio spins; they want buys….

    So what is the point of making the only big push to radio in the worst-selling (I think ???) months of the year?

    I would think it might have made more sense to postpone the thing just a bit for a spring release, when sales begin to pick up again. So that your radio push would actually occur in a season when there are some sales to be had from it (since that’s the label’s real goal in a radio push anyway …)

  • lucy

    If the US had produced Gordon Lightfoot, we’d probably embrace folk a little more too. ;)

    Yeah. And Ian and Sylvia. et al. … True!

    On the other hand, though, it’s kind of been my sense that one reason they produce so many of these people is that they have a music scene that embraces this kind of music, more than ours does. I have a brother who’s been making his living for about 40 years in the roots/folk music scene in Canada, and from that I just get the sense that it’s considerably more vibrant and well regarded than ours, from the local level right up to the level of the international stars they’ve produced.

  • tinawina

    So what is the point of making the only big push to radio in the worst-selling (I think ???) months of the year?

    Oh, if they start pushing in January it might be high enough to make an impact on sales in (late) February. So it makes more sense than it seems to, at least to me. LOL

    I think the January plunge into nothingness is more about album sales than single sales anyway.

  • lucy

    Oh, if they start pushing in January it might be high enough to make an impact on sales in (late) February. So it makes more sense than it seems to, at least to me. LOL

    Could be!

    And, of course, I know they are loath to give up on the same-year-as-Idol-appearance release because they fear they won’t get the souvenir sales or remaining-from-tv hype that comes with that…. Others, like Elliott, for example, have released the following spring and still pretty much captured those sales, however.

    We’ll see, I guess.

  • tinawina

    And, of course, I know they are loath to give up on the same-year-as-Idol-appearance release because they fear they won’t get the souvenir sales or remaining-from-tv hype that comes with that…. Others, like Elliott, for example, have released the following spring and still pretty much captured those sales, however.

    I totally agree with you. I think they would have been much better off letting her drop in the spring like she wanted. But I’m sure you are right.. they thought they were going to get big Christmas sales. Jokes on them. LOL

  • jpfan

    oops