Billboard – 06/04/11

A few weeks ago, there were dire predictions that Scotty and Lauren would be rejected outright by Country radio. That may still happen, but they were given at least courtesy spins yesterday. Mediabase detected 281 spins for “I Love You This Big” across 101 stations. Seven of those stations spun the song frequently enough to be called Starters (i.e. 7 or more spins yesterday). Lauren received 115 spins across 51 stations and has received her first official add (WUSY-FM – Chattanooga). It is unlikely they will keep up that rate of increase, but it was a nice start.

Only the monitored spins count for the published charts, though, so that’s why we’ll have to wait to see if they chart. There are 131 monitored country stations (236 country stations overall). A rough rule of thumb would be that the monitored spins would be about half those detected and you need 271 spins a week to chart in the top 50 on Country today.

In other news, Billboard is predicting that Gaga will sell over a million copies of her new CD. On Monday, Gaga crashed the Amazon servers while they moved 330K of her album at 99 cents a pop. Yesterday’s 99 cent special is expected to move 150K

But even without a second day of 99-cent pricing, “Born This Way” was on its way to a million-unit debut week, sources told Billboard. On the first day alone, the album moved at least 500,000 units, with sources saying that first day sales at iTunes totaled 104,000 units; Best Buy, 45,000 units; Target, 35,000 units and Starbucks, 10,000 units. Consequently, industry prognosticators project that Best Buy will hit 200,000 units by the end of the SoundScan week on May 29; Target will reach 150,000; Wal-Mart will hit 125,000, and iTunes will hit 200,000 units.

Moreover, the album is one of the most widely distributed titles in current times, available in about 20,000 storefronts, including CVS pharmacies, Whole Foods, Walgreens and others, according to UMG sources.

Woah. Well, you say, at 99 cents no wonder she got the volume. But, not so fast. 70% of the sales she has received outside of Amazon have been of the higher priced deluxe album. Impressive in this day and age.

Charts News: You know the drill. There are too many charts to check them all every week, so we just check some. Feel free to post numbers from your favourite chart in comments. If it interests you, it may interest others. Naturally, this is the daily numbers thread. Gaga’s a goof, but I love big numbers. The industry has had so much bad news, that I have to celebrate impressive numbers.

Fantasia:
Back to Me – R&B Album: 69 (61)

Jennifer Hudson:
I Remember Me – BB200: 70 (54), R&B Album: 17 (15)

Jennifer Lopez:
Love? – BB200: 12 (0)
On the Floor – Hot 100: 5 (6), Hot 100 Airplay: 5 (5)

Mandissa:
What If We Were Real – BB200 : 197 (134), Christian Albums: 10 (4)

Steven Tyler:
Feels So Good: Hot 100 70 (35)

Songs from Glee on the Hot 100
Pure Imagination: 59
Back to Black: 82
Rolling in the Deep: 90 (29)
My Man: 94
Friday: 100 (34)

On Idol last week:
Il Volo: BB200 10 (NEW)

AGT’s Michael Grimm debuts at 13 on the BB200

  • Valentin432

    Gaga will get an amazing number, what we’ll never be sure about is how much they spent to get it between the countless promo appearances and already 3 singles launched.

  • Kirsten

    Gaga will get an amazing number, what we’ll never be sure about is how much they spent to get it between the countless promo appearances and already 3 singles launched.

    Yep. That was an extremely expensive launch. The two videos released were not cheap. These big opening numbers are another form of advertising. If she hits them, there will be a lot of ink spent on it. The hope is that the hype will get people to check it out. It may be a wasted effort since it would seem difficult to hype Gaga much more than she already is.

    Still, this will be positive hype to combat the under-performance of Judas (and I would even say Born This Way didn’t perform as well as expected. There was a lot of anticipation and its rise on radio was nuts, but it didn’t have the sticking power or cultural impact of some of her earlier songs).

  • tripp_ncwy

    Mediabase (rolling) TW: May 26

    US

    HAC
    21 18 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 1382 1089 293 7.302
    34 29 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 671 543 128 2.736
    42 33 STEVEN TYLER (It) Feels So Good 569 336 233 3.032
    47 46 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 305 286 19 0.859

    AC
    3 4 DAUGHTRY September 1269 1294 -25 8.853
    19 18 MATTHEW MORRISON Summer Rain 208 193 15 0.931
    39 39 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 30 26 4 0.809

    Country
    63 41 BRAD PAISLEY/CARRIE UNDERWOOD Remind Me 437 72 365 3.572

    June 13, 2011 – impacting songs
    Kellie Pickler 19 Recording/BNA – Tough

    Top 40
    5 6 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 10169 9870 299 64.347
    54 48 STEVEN TYLER (It) Feels So Good 656 354 302 3.028

    Mainstream Rock
    21 20 STEVEN TYLER (It) Feels So Good 53 53 0 0.145

    Urban
    42 42 JENNIFER LOPEZ I’m Into You f/Lil W… 427 442 -15 1.057
    41 44 JENNIFER HUDSON Where You At 370 479 -109 1.588

    Urban AC
    6 6 JENNIFER HUDSON Where You At 1444 1493 -49 7.008
    19 16 FANTASIA Collard Greens & Cor… 637 525 112 2.99
    47 42 JENNIFER HUDSON Don’t Look Down 89 89 0 1.257

    Rhythmic
    16 17 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 2265 2291 -26 13.549
    39 37 JENNIFER LOPEZ I’m Into You f/Lil W… 745 618 127 2.865

    Christian AC
    1 1 MANDISA Stronger 1380 1407 -27 5.19
    23 21 CHRIS SLIGH One 306 272 34 1.098

    Canadian

    Top 40
    2 1 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 1664 1632 32 12.897
    54 48 JENNIFER LOPEZ I’m Into You f/Lil W… 207 176 31 0.654

    HAC
    2 3 JENNIFER LOPEZ F/PITBULL On The Floor 966 994 -28 6.313
    49 48 JENNIFER LOPEZ I’m Into You f/Lil W… 102 99 3 0.943

    Main-AC
    28 26 JASON ALDEAN/KELLY CLARKSON Don’t You Wanna Stay 137 123 14 1.619

    Canada-Active Rock
    17 18 STEVEN TYLER (It) Feels So Good 156 142 14 0.779
    36 34 DAUGHTRY September 37 36 1 0.382

  • girlygirl

    As of 5:50 a.m. Pacific time Friday, Scotty’s coronation single is still #1 pon iTunes and Lauren’s is at #3

    I was thinking about this, and based on fact that Adele was #1 and sold 137K last week, I’m guessing Scotty will come in at somewhere between 100-125K, because he’d have to average 25K/day from Wednesday-Sunday to get to 125K while Adele averaged less than 20K/day over the 7-day sales week. So I think it would be difficult for Scotty to sell more than 125K. Lauren I’m guessing will be around 75K or so.

    (LLWD is at #221, so it moved up a few more spots, while SGT dropped back to #110/#845; I didn’t look for any other Idol-related songs, sorry)

  • http://www.twilightslo.com Mateja

    Hmm, Lauren’s and Scotty’s label on Mediabase Addboard is listed as 19/Interscope/Mercury. So, they are signed to Mercury?

  • Kirsten

    I was thinking about this, and based on fact that Adele was #1 and sold 137K last week, I’m guessing Scotty will come in at somewhere between 100-125K, because he’d have to average 25K/day from Wednesday-Sunday to get to 125K while Adele averaged less than 20K/day over the 7-day sales week. So I think it would be difficult for Scotty to sell more than 125K. Lauren I’m guessing will be around 75K or so.

    I biffed it yesterday. I said that Adele’s RITD sold 137K, but I was remembering her CD (I should have checked). RiTD sold 297K last week (a 16% decrease from previous week). If we assume that she lost about 20% this week, that’s about 34K a day. It’s difficult to know what is really happening with the charts, but it should be possible to for Scotty to sell over 100K. I think that it is possible that Lauren might even do it.

    I don’t want to jinx things, though.

  • Eileen99

    Fun news on spins yesterday! Mediabase shows Scotty has a Country add from Canada (Ottawa). I heard Scotty’s song on the radio yesterday; afterward the DJ said all the feedback was positive & played a few listeners comments. A couple of comments I heard were “love it”, “those kids are just what country music needs”.

    They’re off to a good start, I’m excited for them.

  • Kirsten

    Hmm, Lauren’s and Scotty’s label on Mediabase Addboard is listed as 19/Interscope/Mercury. So, they are signed to Mercury?

    That’s usually how we discover these things. It looks like they are on three labels. 19R isn’t going to do much other than rake in the profits. Interscope is on there because that’s Jimmy’s sand-box. I’m going to assume that Mercury is Mercury Nashville. With any luck, they will do the heavy lifting (A&R and radio schmoozing).

    I hope there aren’t too many cooks in the kitchen.

  • luly

    Sounds like a very nice start on the radio :D.

  • Hazehel

    It’s difficult to know what is really happening with the charts, but it should be possible to for Scotty to sell over 100K. I think that it is possible that Lauren might even do it.

    If your figure is correct then I would guess ~200K for Scotty since he has quite a big lead over Adele. As long as she doesn’t drop too much this next few days, Lauren should also easily make 100K. Lee DeWyze got to #3 and he sold 95K in his first week, with one fewer day of sales (I think the single was only released after the finale, while Lauren’s was released after the performance show).

  • LadyBeBop

    Is Billboard going to count those 99 cent sales for Gaga? I know some people who took advantage of the 99 cent sale just to take advantage of Amazon’s free 20 gig cloud server.

    Also, Fred Bronson (Idolsnow) is predicting Scotty going Billboard #1 in several BB digital charts. If he does, he’ll have the 300th Idol #1 in BB chart history.

  • Listening

    So Lady GaGa will read that she sold a million most people wont even know nearly half of that is at only 99 cent which would negate the awe of selling a million albums. I mean I didn’t know it was selling for 99 cent until I read this blog. I’m not sure why she did that right at the beginning b/c selling 500K at regular price is super impressive and any star would love to have that.

    Now lady GaGa has to deal w/ controversy of half her sells are b/c the album was sold for 99 cents instead of people focusing on what would of bee an awesome 500K sales total. Hmm maybe she doesn’t care b/c Lady GaGa seems to feed off of controversy maybe there’s no grand scheme behind it to bulk up her sales will get and it was just a gift to her fans. I don’t know but I woulda waited before I sold my album for 99 cent to avoid any mumblings.

    Valentin432, not only would it be expensive for the promos of her album but she has to be taking a loss for selling those albums at 99 cents. Is the record label covering that or is she.

  • Kirsten

    Is Billboard going to count those 99 cent sales for Gaga?

    Yep. The Editor wrote a note about it: Billboard (if Nigel thinks it’s bad, apparently the BB Editor is getting trashed on Twitter by Britney fans. They are still p!ssed that they changed the rule about exclusive albums a couple of years ago).

    Now, I keep hearing from a small handful of folks that if Billboard doesn’t make a policy change, other labels will convince retailers to sell big-release albums for $.99 as well. To that I say: Good luck. As we reported today, Amazon.com has spent literally millions of dollars buying the Gaga album from the Universal Music Group and Interscope at the standard wholesale cost of $8.40, and then selling it to fans for $.99. I can’t think of another time a retailer took a loss like this, and I wouldn’t expect it to become any sort of a norm. But if a label can convince a retailer to do that, more power to them. From a pure market perspective, it’s a win for everyone: The label and publishers get paid in full, the artist gets his or her full royalty, the retailer presumably gets the marketing boost they wanted, and — most importantly — the fan gets the deal of a lifetime.

    It is an interesting read (it’s in addition to the BB article). Suffice to say, Jimmy is having a REALLY good week.

    They will not be counting the copies that BestBuy gave away.

  • tripp_ncwy

    I’m going to assume that Mercury is Mercury Nashville.

    Yep, under Universal Music Group Nashville is MCA Nashville Records, Mercury Nashville Records, and Lost Highway Records.

  • Pam

    i-tunes update (overall chart top 1000)

    1. I Love You This Big (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    3. Like My Mother Does (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina
    10. On the Floor (feat. Pitbull) – Jennifer Lopez
    15. Light Up the World (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    19. Pretending (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    22. For Good (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    47. I Love New York / New York, New York (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    73. Gone (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    80. (It) Feels So Good – Steven Tyler
    81. Amazed (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    83. As Long As You’re There (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    85. Pretending (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    86. My Cup (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    87. Yeah! (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    98. Light Up the World (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    103. If I Die Young (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina
    107. Undo It – Carrie Underwood
    110. I Who Have Nothing (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    115. Still Got Tonight – Matthew Morrison
    117. House of the Rising Sun (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    119. What Is And What Should Never Be (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    125. Dream On (Live) – Aerosmith
    127. Bennie And The Jets (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    137. Bella notte (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    140. Flat On the Floor – Carrie Underwood
    152. Before He Cheats – Carrie Underwood
    170. Friday (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    181. Breakaway – Kelly Clarkson
    182. Rolling In The Deep (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    190. Dream On (Live) – Aerosmith
    199. Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning) [American Idol Performance] – Scotty McCreery
    205. Jesus, Take the Wheel – Carrie Underwood
    208. I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing – Aerosmith
    211. Battlefield – Jordin Sparks
    223. Live Like We’re Dying – Kris Allen
    225. Pure Imagination (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    235. Back to Black (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    236. Flat on the Floor (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina
    247. Rolling In the Deep (Glee Cast Version) [feat. Jonathan Groff] – Glee Cast
    265. I’m Into You (feat. Lil Wayne) – Jennifer Lopez
    285. I Feel Pretty / Unpretty (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    290. Loser Like Me (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    291. Rolling In the Deep (Glee Cast Version) [feat. Jonathan Groff] – Glee Cast
    296. Don’t Stop Believin’ (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    300. Don’t You (Forget About Me) – David Cook
    315. Just a Dream – Carrie Underwood
    316. Jar of Hearts (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    320. Best Days of Your Life – Kellie Pickler
    322. Candle In The Wind (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina
    324. It’s Not Over – Daughtry
    339. The River (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    342. The Climb (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina
    350. Go Your Own Way (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    369. Pure Imagination (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    382. My Life Would Suck Without You – Kelly Clarkson
    384. Isn’t She Lovely (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    389. Born This Way (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    412. Yoü and I (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    423. My Life Would Suck Without You – Kelly Clarkson (Single)
    434. Turning Tables (Glee Cast Version) [feat. Gwyneth Paltrow] – Glee Cast
    458. Always On My Mind (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    469. How Great Thou Art – Carrie Underwood
    484. Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    487. Up On the Roof (American Idol Performance) – Lauren Alaina & Scotty McCreery
    493. Uprising (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    524. Wasted – Carrie Underwood
    541. Maybe I’m Amazed (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    552. Piece Of My Heart (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    566. Bella Notte (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    582. Songbird (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    584. Far Away (feat. Chris Richardson) – Tyga
    596. I Am Woman – Jordin Sparks
    604. I Cross My Heart (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    633. Without You (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    657. Cowboy Casanova – Carrie Underwood
    660. Earth Song (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    667. Dream On (Live) – Aerosmith
    680. On the Floor (Mixin Marc & Tony Svejda LA to Ibiza Mix) – Jennifer Lopez
    692. The Time of My Life – David Cook (Single)
    694. Blue (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    698. On The Floor (feat. Pitbull) – Jennifer Lopez
    703. Can I Trust You With My Heart (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    715. Don’t Stop Believin’ (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    720. All-American Girl – Carrie Underwood
    738. I Feel Pretty / Unpretty (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    742. I’m Not Gonna Teach Your Boyfriend How to Dance With You (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    764. I Feel the Earth Move (American Idol Performance) – Casey Abrams & Haley Reinhart
    765. Temporary Home – Carrie Underwood
    771. Dancing Queen (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    803. Try a Little Tenderness (Glee Cast Version) – Glee Cast
    813. Swingin’ (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    831. So Small – Carrie Underwood
    848. Red High Heels – Kellie Pickler
    860. Still Got Tonight – Matthew Morrison
    895. Love Potion No. 9 (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    904. While My Guitar Gently Weeps (American Idol Performance) – James Durbin
    925. Songs Like This – Carrie Underwood
    929. Cryin’ – Aerosmith
    932. Beautiful (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    950. Forget You (Glee Cast Version) [feat. Gwyneth Paltrow] – Glee Cast
    953. Dreams (Glee Cast Version) [feat. Kristin Chenoweth] – Glee Cast
    970. Young Blood (American Idol Performance) – Scotty McCreery
    975. Call Me (American Idol Performance) – Haley Reinhart
    976. All By Myself (American Idol Performance) – Pia Toscano
    984. Have You Ever Seen The Rain (American Idol Performance) – Casey Abrams
    993. Whataya Want from Me – Adam Lambert
    995. Last Name – Carrie Underwood
    998. Walk This Way (Live) – Aerosmith
    1010. Singing In the Rain / Umbrella (feat. Gwyneth Paltrow) [Glee Cast Version] – Glee Cast

  • Kirsten

    Somebody on Gaga’s team (manager?) tweeted that full royalties for Gaga count on those sales (though maybe that was meant as songwriting royalties). Ordinarily Amazon takes the hit on this sort of sale, but in this case, the label seems to also be taking some of it.

    According to Billboard, it’s all Amazon. They are buying the album at the wholesale price. Gaga and her label are getting their full royalties.

  • tinawina

    Go Scotty and Lauren! I hope this bodes well for them!!

  • Listening

    So Lady GaGa has nothing to do w/ her album being sold for 99 cents, well why did Amazon decide to do it they’re losing money?
    I mean I get the 99 cent deal if they had this large stock pile of CDs and just wanted to get them off their hands but sheesh wait a while and give em time to sell.

  • Anmor

    Amazon is charging 99 cents for Gaga’s record on their own back in order to hook people into their new cloud music service. Thinking long-term, this is actually bad for the record companies because customers will start to think they are owed cheap versions of big releases. Personally I would not encourage Amazon and other sellers to do this if I were a record company. But then record companies haven’t proven themselves to be great long-term thinkers.

  • jpfan

    Personally I would not encourage Amazon and other sellers to do this if I were a record company. But then record companies haven’t proven themselves to be great long-term thinkers.

    Hmmm. This makes alot of sense. I don’t think Amazon could do this without the consent of Gaga’s team though. It could hurt her arrangement with other retailers. I think Gaga did it to reach the “million albums sold” mark. The drop off in sales for the 2nd week is going to be unbelievable because I just don’t think her music is as strong this time around.

  • Kirsten

    So Lady GaGa has nothing to do w/ her album being sold for 99 cents, well why did Amazon decide to do it they’re losing money?

    iTunes is the biggest music retailer by far. Amazon wants to increase it’s share. It’s a loss leader to advertise their new Cloud service.

    Amazon sees this as a way to get the jump on iTunes. It wants to win customers. Sometimes you pay lots of money to run an advertising campaign. Sometimes you sell things at a loss to get customers to come into your door. Some of those customers will like the service (doesn’t Amazon songs have higher quality?) and buy some more full price items.

    Amazon has had lots of $3.99 deals before. I bet they are pretty happy about all the press they’ve gotten with this 99cent deal. They’ve certainly gotten a lot more people through their “doors”.

  • Elliegrll

    So Lady GaGa will read that she sold a million most people wont even know nearly half of that is at only 99 cent which would negate the awe of selling a million albums.

    People are interested in the album, that’s the selling/promotional point. It doesn’t matter how much people paid for it, that so many people felt it was worth having, is enough to bring more buzz to Gaga and build up her reputation as someone whose music is in demand.

  • Kirsten

    Amazon is charging 99 cents for Gaga’s record on their own back in order to hook people into their new cloud music service. Thinking long-term, this is actually bad for the record companies because customers will start to think they are owed cheap versions of big releases

    A few years ago, Prince gave his latest album away for free in one of the major British newspapers. In his view, it was advertising for his concerts. People like Gaga and Prince make a lot more money from their concerts than they do from album sales. This works for established artists, but cuts the legs right out from new artists (Gaga established herself quickly, but most artists can’t do that on the back of 99 cents albums).

    In 2007, Radiohead let their fans decide how much they wanted to pay for their album.

    IDK, so many people think it’s perfectly fine to steal music, 99 cents is an improvement.

    I remember when iTunes started, a lot of people were furious that they were selling singles for 99cents (if you wanted to buy a CD single at that time, you were paying $4.99). They also didn’t like them slicing up an album, because people would just pay $1.98 to buy the two decent songs on the album instead of $14.99 for the entire album. But at least iTunes found a way to collect something for some of those songs. For some, 99cents was cheap enough to avoid risking getting a virus and to support their favourite artist. Plus, it gets harder to justify stealing a song when you only have to pay 99cents vs $14.99.

    I have to wonder, how many of those 450K albums Amazon sold are to people who would have stolen the album? They may have paid for it just because it was so cheap.

    Either the music industry has to find new ways to make money or people are going to have to stop feeling self-righteous about stealing music (seriously, you talk to these thieves and they think they are modern-day Robin Hoods).

  • Eileen99

    Scotty’s picked up two more Country adds in Canada this morning, in Barrie & Sudbury. (apparently the Canadian PDs forgot to read the article about Country PDs not wanting to play Scotty’s music).

    Those same two Canadian stations added Lauren at the same time, and a station in Miami added her song this morning.

    These adds are going to be fun to watch. Which station was it whose PD had the particularly petty remarks about Scotty?

  • mmb

    That billboard article had a lot of interesting points. One of which is that Gaga and other big name artists don’t reality care ( or soon won’t care) if their CDs are sold for 99 cents or given away for free. That they want to get their music heard- whether via radio or cd- by as many people as possible and get as many fans as possible. More fans= more concert tickets sold, higher music licensing fees for ads etc, more endorsement possibilities etc etc. The money is not in the music sales it’s in all the other things. And this will hold true for idols as well. Recently cook, Adam Kris ( and I’m sure others) have made money in lots of others ways than just album and download sales

  • Elliegrll

    The money is not in the music sales it’s in all the other things.

    This true for the artists, but the big question is what impact will this have on the labels, especially as people get used to paying so little, or nothing at all for music. They’ve already started to try and push for 360 deals, where they get a piece of the profits from tours and merchandise. Will they try to horn in on the publishing rights, or try to cut off artists who write their own songs.

  • CindyM

    Well, I bought Gaga through Amazon and used their Cloud service and love it! Easy to transfer to my Droid and into itunes for my ipod. I’ll buy from them again, a free 20g soundcloud capacity isn’t bad :)

  • randrambles

    I know it’s not exactly the same, but when Taylor Swift’s new album came out Amazon sold it at 3.99 for the first week. That’s how I got it. It definitely helped on making her sell more than a million.

  • Pam

    Universal Music now has the last four million selling debuts as Lady Gaga joins Taylor Swift, Lil Wayne and 50 Cent in a very rare category these days. Here’s how it looks headed into the weekend:

    *Lady Gaga (Interscope) 1m+
    *Brad Paisley (Arista Nashville) 145-155k
    Adele (XL/Columbia) 125-135k
    *Glee Cast Vol. 6 (Columbia) 75-80k
    Now 38 (Capitol/EMI) 45-50k
    *Maybach Music Group Presents: Self Made, Vol. 1 (Maybach/WB) 45-50k
    *NKOTBSB (Columbia/Jive/Legacy) 35-40k
    *Journey (Nomota) 25-30k (Wal-Mart exclusive)
    *Foster The People (Startime/Columbia) 25-30k
    Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 24-27k
    Seether (Wind-up) 21-24k
    Beastie Boys (Capitol/EMI) 18-21k
    Lady Gaga The Fame (Interscope) 18-21k
    Lemonade Mouth (Walt Disney) 18-21k
    Fleet Foxes (Sub Pop) 18-21k

    *Debuts (5/26p)

    LINK

  • jpfan

    I think this week will put Adele’s album into 2x platinum. Very impressive.

  • Buffynut

    Wow! Haley has 5 songs in the Top 200 on i-Tunes and they have not been performed live for almost 2 weeks! Wow! Wish Idol would allow i-Tunes to release the numbers during the season. Would love to know what I Who Have Nothing and House of the Rising Sun sold the week they were performed!

  • askew3

    I am impressed that Haley still has 5 songs in the top 200 and more in the top 1000. Her songs are really hanging in there.

    We’ll see sales totals for all of the idol singles next week right?

    I am thrilled that Adele looks to be having the best-selling album this year. I think Gaga will have a massive first week. However, unless Edge of Glory takes off, I think her sales are going to be seriously-front loaded and I would be surprised to see her hit 2mm sold in the U.S.

    I bought Gaga’s album for 99 cents from Amazon. If they wouldn’t have had that deal, I would have just downloaded Edge of Glory from iTunes. The rest of the album is just rubbish. I don’t see a 4th single on that album at all.

  • Elliegrll

    We’ll see sales totals for all of the idol singles next week right?

    No. Brian’s source only gives him totals for songs that are either in the top 100 or 200. So, we’ll probably only get numbers for Scotty, Lauren and maybe a few for Haley. James’ numbers might be too low, so Brian would have to call in a favor to see them.

  • Listening

    I’m not sure if i’m imagining this but I thought I read albums had to be sold at a set minimum price for them to count.

  • HR

    I see Gaga’s album hitting 2 million even if none of her singles are long lasting hits. Her sales would have to completely die down to next to nothing in the second week not to hit that mark. 3 million will be harder to acomplish without a longer run with her singles.

    She could end up like Taylor. Her label went for a huge spash upfront and her album has sold 3 million but since sales were frontloaded she didn’t have the stay at the top of the chart as long as Fearless. This has led to less “buzz” about her after the first few months even if her sales are great. Adele hasn’t had that 1 million debut splash but she’s been making waves for awhile because her sales are good and consistent near the top. Matter of preference over which is better since all 3 albums may end up with the same sales total.

  • IndyMuse

    A few observations:

    1. Album sales must be pretty weak on iTunes (compared to other sources) if Scotty has been #2 with his compilation (even if it is only for 1/2 a week) for two days and it isn’t mentioned in the estimate above.
    2. Pia’s singles don’t seem to be very high at all. Granted, there are only a few, but from all the press you would almost expect them to be near the top of the heap. Maybe they did better when they came out, but I would think this wouldn’t bode well that they haven’t lasted given the promo she’s had.
    3. I wonder if Brian can get further down the chain for Scotty and Lauren because of the country connection? He usually can, but all but their singles are classed pop, so maybe not?

  • tomk

    I haven’t followed every post about iTunes, but I don’t recall seeing Pia’s stuff gaining too much traction back when she was on the show. I guess we should remember that “I’ll Stand by You” was a Top 24 performance (did those even get released for iTunes?)

    It is impressive that Haley has hung on in the Top 200 for this long – especially having FIVE songs on the list. I think it is very safe to say that she is the most buzzworthy contestant of the season.

    At the end of the day, it definitely worked out for these two girls: Haley needed the higher finish in order to create the buzz that spread so quickly out of nowhere – while Pia perhaps benefited more from being “Miss Shocking Elimination” than she would have by continuing on the show, especially if she didn’t start mixing it up more. More ballads would have definitely put her into a bucket she would have never been able to escape from. Haley probably would not have been able to do anything from the #9 position…I don’t think she’d be talking about signing record deals right now :)

  • Elliegrll

    Pia’s singles don’t seem to be very high at all. Granted, there are only a few, but from all the press you would almost expect them to be near the top of the heap

    Not really. Pia left weeks ago, and it’s not like her songs are getting airplay. There’s nothing out there to remind people about her songs.

  • http://www.twilightslo.com Mateja

    2. Pia’s singles don’t seem to be very high at all. Granted, there are only a few, but from all the press you would almost expect them to be near the top of the heap. Maybe they did better when they came out, but I would think this wouldn’t bode well that they haven’t lasted given the promo she’s had.

    Pia finished in 9th place. She was eliminated two months ago, what do you expect? She had a little more exposure after she was eliminated, but that was also weeks ago.

  • Buffynut

    Elliegrll says:

    05/27/2011 at 12:45 pm

    We’ll see sales totals for all of the idol singles next week right?

    No. Brian’s source only gives him totals for songs that are either in the top 100 or 200. So, we’ll probably only get numbers for Scotty, Lauren and maybe a few for Haley. James’ numbers might be too low, so Brian would have to call in a favor to see them.

    And those totals will only be for this past week, right? Not cumulative for the season?

  • Hazehel

    I think it is very safe to say that she is the most buzzworthy contestant of the season.

    I think it is definitely unsafe to say that. Danny Gokey who left in the 3rd place had a song in the iTunes Top 100 after the finale, Haley has none. It looks like she’ll be more like Allison Iraheta, one album and she is done.

  • mmb

    And those totals will only be for this past week, right? Not cumulative for the season?

    Correct, unless idol reverses its prior course this year and releases the in- season sales number

  • weareallinnocent

    Well, I bought Gaga through Amazon and used their Cloud service and love it! Easy to transfer to my Droid and into itunes for my ipod. I’ll buy from them again, a free 20g soundcloud capacity isn’t bad :)

    Yup. Me too. Love Amazon. :-)

    I’m not sure if i’m imagining this but I thought I read albums had to be sold at a set minimum price for them to count.

    Widely spread but largely untrue. Billboard wrote an article describing its policy in more detail a day or so ago.

  • Allen

    Amazon has had lots of $3.99 deals before. I bet they are pretty happy about all the press they’ve gotten with this 99cent deal. They’ve certainly gotten a lot more people through their “doors”.

    Amazon does a daily mp3 deal of the day every day typically for around 1.99 to 3.99. Some of them are obscure but they have a lot of big selling artists as well. And they occasionally do classical compilations like today with 99 most essential flute masterpieces for 1.99! :) (I kid but actually I have bought a few of the 99 most essential series, 99 songs for 2 bucks is pretty good). They also have a free song every day. They have really been trying to grab some of itunes market share for a while now.

  • Kirsten

    I’m not sure if i’m imagining this but I thought I read albums had to be sold at a set minimum price for them to count.

    That’s for certifications. The RIAA takes a dim view of bargain basement sales. IDK what they will do in this case since the album was sold at the full wholesle price so the label is whole. The retailer just chose to sell it for less. Here is the rule you were probably thinking about:

    Promotional radio and press copies, cut-outs, inventory sell-offs and surplus sales are not included toward certification.

    Certification rules

    1. Album sales must be pretty weak on iTunes (compared to other sources) if Scotty has been #2 with his compilation (even if it is only for 1/2 a week) for two days and it isn’t mentioned in the estimate above.

    Amazon is doing a good job of attracting buyers to their site for the big digital release this week and that’s probably helping them to sell other digital albums while they are at it. Although, I wouldn’t expect a HUGE overlap of Gaga/Paisley fans. It would be interesting if the industry analysts write an article on how that 99cent sale impacted other aspects of the industry.

    I’m pretty sure it has served to reduce Gaga’s impact on the iTunes single charts. She didn’t get much of a bump from her Idol performance, but it’s starting to rise now. I’m pretty sure that many people would rather buy the entire album when it’s cheaper than the single. Now that the 99cent album is gone, people are back to picking the individual tracks they want.

  • Elliegrll

    I think it is definitely unsafe to say that. Danny Gokey who left in the 3rd place had a song in the iTunes Top 100 after the finale, Haley has none. It looks like she’ll be more like Allison Iraheta, one album and she is done.

    LOL, can she release a single first, before she’s saddled with that prediction? Unlike Allison, Haley’s not a teenager, so she won’t have that working against her with PDs. Her buzz hasn’t been that loud outside of the bubble, but she’s coming off a popular season, and she won’t have to compete for airtime with the winner or runner up, so depending on the music that she releases, she might stand a chance of her music getting heard.

  • tomk

    Haley will probably have more creative control than Allison – plus, they are two completely different singers. Haley’s success or lack thereof will have little to do with Allison’s success or lack thereof.

    Besides, I wasn’t talking about the future anyway. I’m talking about the here and now. She has songs that she performed weeks ago still showing up on iTunes charts. And not just one or two – but FIVE. To me, that shows a buzzworthy contestant. There are people who are still downloading her stuff (probably through word of mouth) two weeks after she last performed – and even longer since some of the songs being downloaded were performed.

    Again, I have no idea what her future holds. I am talking in the present.

  • tomk

    Elliegirl –

    I agree. We all need to wait for her to release a single to see if she has any kind of real staying power; as doing a brand-new single is a much different ballgame than covering a well-known song. Some of her success on itunes is tied into, “Did you hear Haley do that cover of (blank)?” Now, she has to turn that into, “Did you hear Haley has another new song out on iTunes? It’s fantastic!” That is a very tough transition to make.

  • Elliegrll

    Haley will probably have more creative control than Allison

    Based on how the season went, I find this hard to believe.

  • IndyMuse

    I only noted Pia’s sales because she was hyped at elimination endlessly and is getting some big opportunities not normally given to a 9th place finisher. With that I would have expected she got those because TPTB were seeing really big iTunes sales for her. If she was Daughtry-like, as some thought at the time of her elimination, I would have expected her to have songs much higher up.

  • Valentin432

    No matter the contestant you take, the best bet is bust.

    We’ll see how these post AI contestants do but from the things I’ve read so far, Scotty and Lauren both are certainly getting a shot at a country carreer, Pia and Haley seem like the ones interscope is investing in for a pop/HAC carreer and the others better try to find their niche.

    Jacob in particular should go the way Mandisa did and not try for mainstream.
    I’m a little worried for James and hope he finds a good band and capitalize on his AI fame.

  • Hazehel

    LOL, can she release a single first, before she’s saddled with that prediction?

    What’s wrong with prediction? I predicted that Allison would have trouble in her music career straight after Season 8 finale, no single from her then, and I was right. I’m quite happy to admit that I was wrong in other predictions – I predicted that Danny Gokey won’t do well, but he did a bit better than I thought he would (I would have guessed 100-150K for his album, but he did 200K), while Kris did much worse that I though he would (I thought he could sell gold, but he didn’t), so on and so forth. It’s just a game, using my experience watching chart and music to prognosticate on the likely outcome, nothing more.

    I would be happy to predict how Scotty and Lauren will do, but something is odd with the sales of Scotty and Lauren, and that makes it hard to predict what will happen, but I do think Scotty will do well, most likely better than Kris, but how much better is hard to tell.

  • Elliegrll

    I would be happy to predict how Scotty and Lauren will do, but something is odd with the sales of Scotty and Lauren, and that makes it hard to predict what will happen, but I do think Scotty will do well, most likely better than Kris, but how much better is hard to tell.

    I’d rather wait until someone releases music, before predicting what they will or won’t do. And I’m also not going to base their success or failure on just what they manage to sell to AI fans.

  • Buffynut

    Elliegrll says:

    05/27/2011 at 3:11 pm

    I’d rather wait until someone releases music, before predicting what they will or won’t do. And I’m also not going to base their success or failure on just what they manage to sell to AI fans.

    So, true!!

  • Hazehel

    I’d rather wait until someone releases music, before predicting what they will or won’t do.

    What’s the point of prediction then?

    Other predictions –

    Hopeless cases –
    Ashthon Jones – no one remembers her.
    Karen Rodriguez – ditto.
    Casey Abrams – can’t sing, only possibility is as a jazz musician.
    Jacob Lusk – very limited appeal.

    Marginal chance –
    Stefano Langone – my favorite this season, good voice but doesn’t record well, needs a lot of work with his singing. More likely to flop than not.
    Thia Megia – very pleasant voice, still needs growth.

    Uncertain outcome –
    James Durbin – don’t know if the genre he wants to be in will accept him. Could do moderately well if they did. I can actually see him in other TV shows (like comedy or as a host) if someone will give him a chance (give Durbin a chance!). He is entertaining.

  • girlygirl

    It’s really hard to predict what they will sell once they actually put out their own singles/albums based on what their coronation song or other Idol songs sold.

    For example– Jordin’s coronation song sold the fewest copies of any Idol winner, yet her debut album went platinum and she had several huge singles. On the other hand, NoBo (and Heartless) sold nearly as much (300+K for both) as Kris’s album. Then again, you have Lee & Crystal, neither of whom sold very well with either their coronation singles or their post-Idol music.

    There really doesn’t seem to be a pattern.

  • Valentin432

    There really doesn’t seem to be a pattern.

    Jordin sold the fewest copies of her winner’s single and she also sold the fewest albums in her openning week (at the time) both Kris and Lee sold very few units compared to other winners and they also opened low compared to the other winners.

    I think there’s (or should be?) some correlation between those two (corronation singles and openning weeks) because they both seem to measure the size of the fanbase, altough one is just after idol and the other 5 months later.

    Accounting for Scotty’s dominance in the voting (according to DI) and his all around popularity, it’s not that surprising that his single got to n°1 and IMO it’s even more impressive because it’s country and country singles don’t go that high usually.

  • Buffynut

    girlygirl, I think the “pattern” is, if the song gets played on radio enough, success follows.

  • HR

    I’m not sure how to weigh country singles following Idol. I looked up the debuts for other Idol winners and Carrie is not in the top of the coronation list but her album opened with over 300,000 sold making it the 3rd highest debut for an Idol alum in the history of the show. Scotty will make a good test case to measure if this is an anomoly for Carrie or a pattern to expect from country singers. Country is usually better represented on the album chart then in high charting singles but they were both on a pop show that allows crossover appeal that an average country singer wouldn’t enjoy.

  • Mary102

    I looked up the debuts for other Idol winners and Carrie is not in the top of the coronation list but her album opened with over 300,000 sold making it the 3rd highest debut for an Idol alum in the history of the show. Scotty will make a good test case to measure if this is an anomoly for Carrie or a pattern to expect from country singers.

    Actually, considering how drastically album sales have dropped since Carrie’s year, this wouldn’t be a very accurate comparison.

  • Hazehel

    It’s really hard to predict what they will sell once they actually put out their own singles/albums based on what their coronation song or other Idol songs sold.

    I predicted based on the contestant voice, their singing style, the kind of singer they are, their genre and how they would fit into the current music scene, how their songs sold after the finale, how past Idol winners sold, so on and so forth.

    My Kris Allen prediction is interesting because it gives you an idea how I predicted and how it went wrong – I actually thought Kris won’t succeed as a recording artist (because he doesn’t actually have a good singing voice, and I do think he has the worst voice of all winners), and at that time the lowest selling winner was Taylor Hicks, so I thought he would do worse than Taylor Hicks. However, I also thought winning Idol would grant a winner a certain level of sales automatically, then I looked at Jordin’s sales, and I thought that she would have only gotten gold if she hadn’t had multiple hits, so gold would appear to me to be something that’s quite achievable for an Idol winner, and that is what I plumb for. I didn’t realise then that an Idol winner would no longer be guaranteed good album sales, and this last couple of seasons showed me how wrong I was on that.

  • HR

    Overall album sales have dropped. People still have good debuts. It’s been sketchy with Idol alums lately but I’m not convinced that isn’t on the shoulders of the contestants and the season. I remember people citing that reason of falling sales when Jordin debuted so low and then Cook and Archuleta debuted the next year and silenced that talk. Jackie from AGT debuted with over 200,000 last year. Maybe she’s an exception or maybe not. I don’t consider the proof conclusive yet.

  • Landmd
  • HotHotHot

    I looked on VH1 for Cook’s TLG video, but if it’s there, I can’t find it. Shouldn’t it be there by now?

  • http://emuisemo.pbworks.com eilonwy

    I think there’s (or should be?) some correlation between those two (corronation singles and openning weeks) because they both seem to measure the size of the fanbase, altough one is just after idol and the other 5 months later

    .

    There’s not a statistically significant correlation.

    For all winners and runners-up who released coronation singles in S1-S8, r = 0.49, which looks like a moderate correlation but actually is not significant at alpha = 0.5. This happens with very small sample sizes.

    For winners only, r = 0.31, which doesn’t even come close to achieving significance.

    I can run it again if somebody has solid coronation single numbers for S9, which might goose the “winners and runners-up” number to significance at alpha = 0.10. But I wouldn’t put much credence in anything at alpha = 0.10.

    Back when I originally did that spreadsheet last winter, I tried a Spearman rank correlation coefficient, too, to eliminate the possible effects of industry-wide changes in album sales, and that didn’t make the correlation any stronger. (After which I deleted that table. Damn.)

  • Elliegrll

    Ashthon Jones – no one remembers her.

    This is a great example of why the predictions don’t make a lot of sense. Her primary audience/demo was never going to be the AI crowd. She, just like everyone else, would have to reach beyond the bubble in order to be successful. The same prediction could have been made about Kelly Pickler, Bucky Covington and countless others. It’s not whether or not AI viewers remember them, but whether or not they can get the songs and promotion to appeal to the people who like their music. The same is true for Haley.

  • girlygirl

    nvm

  • Elliegrll

    I looked on VH1 for Cook’s TLG video, but if it’s there, I can’t find it. Shouldn’t it be there by now?

    No. They just sent VH1 the video this week, so the earliest that it would show up would be Saturday, but more than likely it will start airing on Tuesday, which is when they normally start playing new videos.

  • Hazehel

    I can run it again if somebody has solid coronation single numbers for S9,

    Lee – Beautiful Day
    first week – 95,000
    Last known total – 141,000

    Crystal – Up to the Mountain
    first week – 49,000
    Last known total – 63,000

    The total numbers are likely be out by 30-50K.

    There is a problem in any analysis in that the singles for the first 5 season were mostly physical sales, while season 6-10 were all digital. Digital downloads increased quite significantly from season 6 to 10, while album sales also decrease very significantly from season 4 to 10. You’ll have to adjust the numbers accordingly for them to make any sense I think, and also keep Season 1-5 and 6-10 separate.

    Personally I would use total number of download of all songs in the first week after finale.

  • girlygirl

    If those Billboard predictions for Scotty and Lauren are even close to being true, both would be off to a great start. They’d still have to get solid radio play to sustain those high sales #s, of course, but those numbers likely would make UMG and 19 very happy.

    Of course, me being the glass half-empty person I tend to be, I’m still a little skeptical that those predictions will hold up. They seem high, especially in Lauren’s case. But a lot of country singles have sold well on iTunes in the last year (Carrie, Lady A, Thompson Square, The Band Perry, etc etc), so maybe these numbers will hold up. Hope so, because that would be great for Scotty and Lauren

  • Elliegrll

    I actually thought Kris won’t succeed as a recording artist (because he doesn’t actually have a good singing voice, and I do think he has the worst voice of all winners)

    Well, 1.6 million plus people thought that he sang well enough on LLWD to buy the single, which leads me to believe that with the right promotion and follow up songs, he could have sold more than 320,000 albums. Sometimes it’s hard for those of us in the bubble to realize that not everyone likes the same types of music, or hears things the same way. It’s why all of the talk about “whose voting for Jacob” was so ridiculous. There’s a market out there for every contestant, they just have to find a label that believes in them, get the right songs, and good promotion.

  • Hazehel

    Well, 1.6 million plus people thought that he sang well enough on LLWD to buy the single,

    You can sell crap with singles. Just have lots of radio play and any stupid song will sell.

  • http://emuisemo.pbworks.com eilonwy

    There is a problem in any analysis in that the singles for the first 5 season were mostly physical sales, while season 6-10 were all digital. Digital downloads increased quite significantly from season 6 to 10, while album sales also decrease very significantly from season 4 to 10. You’ll have to adjust the numbers accordingly for them to make any sense I think, and also keep Season 1-5 and 6-10 separate.

    Thank you for the data! Adding DeWyze’s and Bowersox’s data to the consolidated sample gives r = 0.55, which is significant at alpha = 0.05. So, moderate correlation. It helps that both Clarkson and Aiken had very strong coronation singles sales even by post-2006 standards.

    The sample sizes for splitting seasons into two clumps are really too small: neither result is significant at alpha = 0.05.

  • Elliegrll

    girlygirl, I think the “pattern” is, if the song gets played on radio enough, success follows.

    Otherwise known as, how Jordin Sparks overcame not having a large AI fan base, but still going on to sell more than 1 million copies of her debut album. Or, the usual way that artists build their careers.

    You can sell crap with singles. Just have lots of radio play and any stupid song will sell.

    Is it hard to reconcile this theory with the one about someone not standing a chance at being successful if you don’t think they are a good singer?

  • girlygirl

    everybody’s opinion of what is a “good” voice can be different. I happen to think Kris has a great voice. Maybe not technically pure, but full of soul and nuance. But his voice and style isn’t going to be enjoyed by everyone. Just like not everyone is going to like a technically pure voice like Pia’s or Paul’s Rod Stewart-like rasp. Etc etc.

    If you had to have a technically pure voice to make it in the music business, a boatload of iconic stars would never have made it — Dylan, Neil Young, John Lennon, just to name a few. And there are a ton of current stars who can’t sing live, leaning heavily on autotune — Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, Ke$ha, again just to name a few.

    Technically perfect singing ability is all well and good, but that really has never been the main factor in why people become stars, sell albums, etc.

    However, Idol DOES produce good singers. All of the winners and runners-up I’ve seen perform are really good live…better than more than a few much more successful musicians.

  • idolhound2011

    No beautiful Day was 193 thousand last I saw.I remember see that at dial idol. Hallelujah was even higher over 210

  • MBane

    If you search for “american idol performance” in itunes you get this list:
    1. HOTRS – Haley
    2. IWHN – Haley
    3. BATJ – Haley
    4. Gone – Scotty
    5. RITD – Haley
    6. DSB – James
    7. WYSLMT – James
    8. Anyway – Lauren
    9. Uprising – James
    10. You and I – Haley

    The order seems to correlate closely with popularity, but not exactly. Does anyone know how they are ordered?

    However it’s ordered, it is clearly related to sales, so it bodes quite well for Haley, and her chances of getting a good contract.

    Oh, and here’s a promotional thing that Haley recently did that I just found…. so good: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhN7dOmZn6o&NR=1

  • http://myspace.com/girlgeek mj

    Reminder:

    I am sick of moderating the same people over and over again.

    Not banning yet, but you are BOTH ON NOTICE. Follow my guidelines, or you can’t post here.

    Oh…and I’m closing this thread. Enough is enough