American Idol 12- Mac’s Top 9 Power List

So, one may question why we have a power list at all at this point. I mean, didn’t we just see the rankings? Yes, but as X-Factor rankings proved, contestants can shift up or down a lot in the matter of a week. This is me trying to forecast what is coming on Idol, which is actually really hard to do.

9) Janelle Arthur- Let’s be honest about something. Her cover of Gone wasn’t great. She does get points for being the only person to sing an up tempo, but she’s by far the weakest female vocalist. She was also the lowest ranked at 6th place. i don’t trust her ability to choose appropriate songs for her voice, and I think the Lennon/McCartney songbook is an uphill battle for her. Couple that with both a desire from Jimmy and the Judges (that could be a rock group) to not judge her appropriately, and Janelle could be making a surprise exit this week. There are others who could also leave…

8) Burnell Taylor- I was as surprised as you were to see Burnell so low. I think he’s in a dangerous spot, close to the bottom, but not at the bottom as to trigger a rebound (like Devin will likely have this week). Song choice is crucial, and this is the guy who just did Flying Without Wings. I think he might absorb some of Curtis’s base, which could help him, but it really comes down to motivating people to call in for you. You can’t just keep hoping people remember your audition, you have to get people to phone in.

7) Paul Jolley- Paul was kinda lowish on the totem pole too, which says a lot about his potential in the competition. He also doesn’t have a solid track record with song choice. I think our boot this week will be either Janelle, Burnell, or Paul, and it will come down to whoever chose the most boring song (not necessarily the worst vocal). Sometimes, getting panned by the judges can be a good thing, and at least for Paul, he has gotten negative feedback before, whereas Burnell and Janelle seem to get empty praise.

6) Devin Velez- I don’t necessarily think Devin deserves to move up in the rankings, but I think there’s likely a rebound for him coming this week. Vocally, he sang Temporary Home well, it was just a boring song choice. Devin’s fanbase knows he’s in danger, and I think it’ll be enough to keep him safe this week.

5) Lazaro Arbos- I wouldn’t be surprised if Lazaro slipped a bit in the ranks this week. 4th place seemed a little high for him, given his Breakaway song wasn’t that great. I bet he sings Imagine for the 1,787th time on American Idol, and it won’t get people dialing their fingers off to save him.

4) Amber Holcomb- The little engine that could is trying very hard to prove that she’s not cannon fodder. Song choices like A Moment Like This, however, won’t get her to the finale. She seems to be playing the short game more than the long game, which could be a smart move, since there are three girls in front of her that seem impossible to knock out.

3) Angie Miller- She took a risk (Yes, a risk) choosing a boring Celine Dion ballad. It’s been done before, and done to death, and she risked bringing nothing to it. However, she brought an incredible vocal to the song, and proved she’s a legitimate contender in this. Points taken off for not being smart enough to know not to compare yourself to Kelly Clarkson in the interview.

2) Kree Harrison- I love Kree. I think she’s amazing, but I think Candice delivered the performance that everyone was talking about last week, so I had to pull Kree down a notch this week. It was a good week for Kree, and I think the Lennon/McCartney songbook will be very nice to her. Important to note: Kree has YET to close a show. You know it’s coming.

1) Candice Glover- Absolutely slayed I Who Have Nothing, despite two Idol favorites having already done their number one it. She delivered the vocal of the week, and will head into this next week carrying that buzz on her shoulders.

I think 7, 8, and 9 are the ones to watch this week, in terms of potential elimination. I think there is a potential save there, possibly two saves. It depends on their song choice though, because if it seems like America got it right, it won’t matter how much the judges like you. If you were actually the worst performance that week, you’re not getting the save. What do you guys think? Sound off in the comments below!


Contributor to EIC of, Contributor at Holds a BA in Film from the University of Central Florida.

  • ZsusK

    I tend to agree with you this week! Kree and Candice are definitely the favorites and they each come with separate fanbases, so there’s no vote splitting. In season’s past, Amber would have been a contender and Janelle destined for the middle of the pack. But, there are two girls far stronger than they, which means voters will leave them in the dust. Angie is the wild card. She has a lot of vocal, devoted fans. I also think she’s going to play up the Christian Girl thing and spend lots of time at the piano, which America will love. I was surprised at Lazaro’s ranking last week, and I take that as a bad sign for all of the boys. Laz is living off of his early buzz right now, while the other guys are already also-rans. The one I think might do better than expected is Janelle. She’s not great vocally, but she does seem to have a personality and a sense of humor. Plus, she’s true country. I mean, could her accent have been more pronounced? Geez, I thought I was watching Ellie Mae Clampett for a minute. Anyway, I’m happy we’ve got a group of strong females and could care less that there aren’t boys to fuss over. Candice raised the bar this week which means the others better step up their games.

  • Ria_

    I agree with most of your analysis. One thing to factor in for Lazaro, though, is it will often take 2 weak performances for a fan favorite to lose support. I think he could drop several spots this week if he has another poor performance.

  • durbesque

    I didn’t think I would like the obvious casting bias, but I do. It’s refreshing to be looking forward to girls night, instead of the usual battle of the sexes, with the boys ahead.

  • Tommyo2000

    Breakaway wasn’t great?? … We should call it what it was …awful… At some point Lazaro should be judged based only as a singer, instead of a singer with a disability… That would be the fair thing to do for him and the others…

  • pmreyn2010

    I think your thoughts are dead on! I still have my eye on Amber– I really think she is the dark horse. I think back to Jordin Sparks in Season 6. Everyone was talking about Melinda & Lakisha (Melinda’s still my favorite contestant ever!), and then Top 11 week, Jordin, after having given some ‘good’ but not ‘great’ performances, slayed it, and she became a contender. I think Amber still could take down the front runners. Song choice is going to be HUGE for her this week!


    Agree with a lot of your logic, and think song choice will be extremely crucial this week. But here are my thoughts…

    9. Amber — There are just too many good girls for her to compete against, and I fear that she will get lost. She can’t compete with the top 3 girls — and I somehow get the feeling that Beatles week will be very unforgiving to her, as she will pick a Beatles song that knocks her way down the pack. She has a strong, but unmemorable voice, but don’t think Beatles songs will help her to stand out.

    8. Burnell — He is really top 3 material, but I worry he is going to make a bad song choice also. He tends to pick songs that people dont recognize, and I worry that the producers won’t guide him in the right way, as they see him as a threat to the top 3 girls. Similar to Amber, I don’t think Beatles week will be kind to his singing style. I hope I am so very wrong here, because he is my favorite.

    7. Janelle — I can see her picking a much better song to highlight her voice this week. Either an up-tempo song that she “countrifies” or a solid ballad that works to finally showing off her voice.

    6. Paul — Similar to Janelle, I see him making a smarter song choice this week.

    5. Lazaro — He is by far the worst singer of the group, but last week, we saw that he has a strong fan-base. Eventually, they will desert him, but think he is safe with a ballad like Imagine or The Long and Winding Road.

    4. Kree — I personally don’t see her appeal — but I think she is very likely safe this week. There may be a backlash of having so many strong girls at the top of the pack, and she will lose out between her, Angie and Candice.

    3. Devin — He should definitely learn from last week and shoot up the standings, and should probably pick one of the recognizable ballads such as Michelle, Something, The Long and Winding Road that will highlight his voice, and will help shoot him up the rankings.

    2. Angie — She will be on the piano this week and with the judges pimping her out, and even though I find her too plastic, she is still very safe.

    1. Candice — Think she will continue to lead the pack for a while, especially since she has now been identified as the front-runner. There are so many Beatles songs that she can just kill. I am not worried about her at all.

    In a bit of a shock, Amber will be eliminated, with no save. There are too many other talented singers left in the competition that they will use the save for a stronger contender.

  • Jake W.

    I think the top 3 are safe for awhile. I see Devin,Paul,Burnell, or Janelle going home this week. I think it could any of those 4.

  • Jake W.

    I think the top 3 are safe for awhile. I see Devin,Paul,Burnell, or Janelle going home this week. I think it could any of those 4.

  • girlygirltoo

    The only guy who seems to have a strong fanbase is Lazaro, which is interesting. I have a feeling a guy will be going home again this week, unless they all absolutely kill their performances. The only girl I can see being in danger, barring a trainwreck of a performance, is Janelle. She is the weakest vocalist of the girls, and it seems like she doesn’t have a big fanbase.

  • Laura Corn

    Your predictions may be spot on but I really don’t look forward to an all girls show. Sorry but that would be a complete borefest. Not that this season isn’t already a yawn.

  • Nostradamas

    I think Candice and even Kree’s voting bases are over rated by most.
    Candice is Melinda Doolittle all over again..technically correct but no real room for ‘growth’, much less not knowing what kind of “artist” she wants to be…not seeing a complete artist in her. Very narrow voting base.
    I laugh when the judges, even Keith say Kree could get a record deal now…..well then why hasn’t she? She’s taking the same path as Trisha Yearwood, (even sounds nearly exactly like her)..singing demos for other people for a living. So it isn’t like the record people haven’t heard her sing. She’s even had a real effort at a deal, but nobody has picked her up. Her voting block will narrow as the AI field does.
    Angie will continue to gain fans from all areas of the voting public…as she seems to be on a direct path to the front. She won’t be a Colton Ver. 2.0 as she’s already shown wiht her YouTube channel, she does much more than the CCM stuff.

  • cheese1

    I’m hoping it will be Paul or Janelle leaving this week. I can’t see the Beatles treating them too kindly. Maybe they can both sing the KLC version of 8 Days a Week and tie for the bottom 2.

    Lazaro might have the biggest fan base among the guys, but Burnell has way more YouTube views than any of the other guys (if you exclude Lazaro’s audition), more than Kree and comparable to Candice (not doing math right now). Clearly, there is some interest in him when he’s not singing Flying Without Wings. If he chooses the right songs (BIG if), I think he could hang around for a few weeks. He got the Jimmy pimping this week despite the horrible song choice so I think the show will try to keep him around for a bit.

    I have a feeling that Angie and Lazaro may be the only ones who are definitely immune from bad performances/song choices right now.

  • ReginaFilange

    If Lazaro gets even a little better, he could be a lock for the top three or four. His fanbase LOVES him, and honestly with so much talent this year, I don’t mind having him around even though his singing is less than stellar.

    Also, Candi’s going uptempo this week, so it’s a make-it-or-break it moment for her. If she can do it, she has a pretty good shot at the whole ball of wax.

  • Lion’s Denn

    i wonder how the girls of season 11 feel every time it is mentioned – by the judges or even the contestants themselves – that the girls are stronger this year, or as angela herself said it is time for a girl to win (referring to herself?). after all, four of the top six last year were girls and they were ALL strong vocalists compared to this year’s five. having said that, i think angela and her piano is this season’s equivalent to wgwg. thus, the contest is hers to lose. unless paul or devin springs a surprise and decides to do the guitar route.

  • Jaejae1

    I would put jaenelle higher. i think she is the weakest of the girls but I still think she can beat the boys. I would put her at 7.

  • vortexpanel

    What is so wrong with “A Moment Like This”? It’s a catchy song and everyone is familiar with it. Spare me the BS about Amber not matching up to Kelly Clarkson. Kelly recently performed the song on the tenth anniversary of her Idol win, and it didn’t sound great at all. Her upper register is extremely strained.

  • Lutrell Everett

    Borrowing from Randy, Burnell has not had his “wow moment”,and if he does not us a shot of adrenalin this week, he’s gone.

    I maintain if Lazaro taps into Julio Iglesia’s version of, “And I Love Her” in Spanish, it would be a game changer. Also borrows his stylist.

    1.Candice,and we need something upbeat and uptempo…A real feelgood song from her. Aretha Franklin’s take on, “Elanor Rigby”.

  • TBTW

    Wow, predicting how they will finish right now is pretty tough. Easy to think that Candice, Angie and Kree will be final 3 but I’m not so sure… especially since they announced rankings (!) so soon. As soon as boys start dropping, I would expect a couple to rise to the top (like Lauren and Haley did in Season 10)

    Based purely on how well they sang this week (I actually saw the live show in the studio), here’s how I’d rank the strength of their voices:

    1. Candice – Outstanding!
    2. Angie – Really powerful and in tune (judges did not overpraise)
    3. Amber – surprised she did not rank higher (hope she doesn’t get early boot)
    4. Burnell – his phrasing and sound are quite unique live – but song sucked!
    5. Kree – not as strong as I expected – overrated
    6. Janelle – good performer and very strong voice

    7. Curtis – entertaining
    8. Paul – weak
    9. Devin – really weak!
    10. Lazaro – no comment

    Yes, it’s true what everyone’s saying – the Girls are SO MUCH better than the guys. And I totally agree with what Jimmy said about Burnell (something about being the best boy by 1000%!) lol

    BTW – I went with a few friends – we all liked different singers before seeing the show, but we almost universally agreed on the above rankings after.

  • celxx

    Are you kidding me? Kelly sounded great on it.

  • Livi2

    I think Candice would sound great on “Eleanor Rigby,” but I’d say that’s anything but a feel good song — assuming you pay any attention at all to the lyrics… Love your idea for Lazaro, and agree that Burnell needs a “wow” — I hope he pulls it off, as I definitely don’t think he deserves to be the next to leave.

  • Livi2

    Catchy, but no personality. I love Amber’s voice, but she keeps watering down her impact by choosing incredibly bland songs that don’t give her any room to put a personal stamp on them. If she delivers a perfect vocal, but the resulting performance feels interchangeable with any of the other hundred times the audience has heard the song, no one will remember *her*. That seems like a big problem when she’s competing for the spotlight with contestants who’ve already had lots more on-screen promotion and media attention.

  • Livi2

    You’re right; the women overall aren’t especially better this year — but the men are definitely worse. Burnell is the only one who seems like he *might* be able to compete in a league with Joshua, Phil, or Colton (not that the latter two were powerhouse vocalists, but they brought way more musical sense and creativity than any of these guys have shown). Then again, seasons 9 and 10 were supposed to be girls’ years, too, and we saw how that turned out…

  • David Facenfield

    I agree that amber could be the surprise elimination… but around top 7 or 8 not this week…

  • CB40

    I think Janelle, Paul or Devin go home this week. Burnell will get some of Curtis’ votes. Janelle might actually be the one to get the backlash of the universal Idol guy-bashing and so I think she is the most likely to leave.

  • jjose712

    I think this week it will be Janelle the one who bites the dust. She is the weakest female singer, she is not that interesting (in fact she seems like the blond country singer clone that we have almost every season), and i don’t think the theme this week will suit her well.
    About the guys, Lazaro will be safe for a couple of weeks, but he is the only one of the guys who really don’t have a chance. He has no room to improvement, and he is the weakest singer in the competition. Lazaro survives because apart of his moving back story, he is a really nice and sweet guy (and cute too) wich make keep his momentum a little longer.
    This is a very important week for the other three guys, the three are competent singers, but need to step up their game. I still think Paul is the one with more probabilities, he is the one who received critizism and that not always work the way the jury want. If he is able to do a good performance, he will be save.
    Burnell and Devin are two of the most boring contestants in a long time, in my opinion Devin is the best male singer by far, but he needs to chose something interesting, if he keeps doing boring ballads he is toast. And if Devin song choices are bad, Burnell’s are even worse. Very important week for the three guys.
    But i’m not sold on the girl’s year. First of all, i don’t like the pimping based on gender, this is not the first year they do it, and the other ones didn’t worked. In my opinion the winner on the competition must be the best not best female. This season the girl’s seem clearly the front runners, but it won’t be the first time that a contestant who was in the shadows at the beginning of the competition end winning.
    But there’s more reasons why i am not sold on the girl’s year idea.
    Amber is the total package, she is beautiful and good singer, but frankly, there’s nothing interesting in her. She is Lil Rounds reloaded. And her song choices are not that great either. This week will be important too, she wasn’t so high in the rankings (and she was declared the best of the night, i don’t know why but that’s another question) so a bad performance could end in a shocking elimination.
    Angie, there’s only one reason why Angie must chose a Celine Dion song, and that’s the theme is Celine Dion’s night. She is a good singer, but not a great singer (she is very far from being in Candice league). She needs to showcase her strenght not her weakness, and a power ballad, is not a good idea. She is safe right now, because she has a fanbase and she is quite solid, but she needs to chose carefully if she doesn’t want to lose her privileged position.
    Kree, i’m not sold on Kree either, technically she is very good, her song choices are good too, but the lacking of emotion would kill her chances in the long run if she is not able to correct it
    Candice is in a different league right now, not only she is the best vocalist, she is chosing really well too. I who have nothing was a risk choice not because of the song (wich is great) but because two different contestants had great performances with that song, and she survived the comparisions. In my opinion her problem is that people value more progression than perfection, and she can suffer the Melinda Doolittle syndrome.

    But as a i say is too soon to know what’s going to happen, a good song choice and a good performance can change everything

  • J

    Amber does not match up to Kelly.

  • aj rabin

    Although I don’t want to hear imagine this week I don’t remember anyone other than David Archuleta singing it or at least having a moment with it.

  • aj rabin

    Burnell and Amber are in more trouble than Jennelle. Jennelle had a weak vocal singing 2nd and still came ahead of Burnell who sang 2nd last and just one spot behind Amber who got great reviews with the pimp spot.

  • CB40

    Jennifer Hudson sang Imagine

  • CB40

    I still have that sneaking suspicion Candice gets knocked out at 3 or 4, not because she doesn’t deserve to win, but that’s just how it will break for her. And the worst part is they’ll use the save on someone else first, though I don’t think they can save anyone that far into the competition anyway.

  • Lutrell Everett

    You are right about “Rigby”…I did not mean to imply the song was upbeat, but I was speaking from an energy stand point.

  • tigervixxxen

    Amber and Devin are the least popular on twitter and I believe are most in danger from an early slot plus a lackluster song choice. Plus Devin was almost eliminated and Amber’s inexplicable pimp spot standing O only get her 5th in the votes, not good. Janelle will get a few more weeks of the country vote. Paul probably gets a few more weeks too. Unless of course either gets the death spot. It is hard to overcome with so many left. I think Burnell has some popularity plus he’s likely to pick up some voters from Curtis. Angie is my top girl but the argument can be made the top 3 are interchangeable at this point.

  • TBTW

    I agree with this… I’m thinking Candice and/or Kree get “shocking” early eliminations… I think Janelle, Burnell and Amber have underdog potential. watch out

  • tigervixxxen

    Amber performed a flat karaoke at the mall version of a schmaltzy song best left in the time machine from 2003. There was absolutely nothing worthwhile about it. I thought other than Lazaro’s poor vocal it was clear worst of the night.

  • Holden17C

    Lazaro may turn out to be this year’s Gokey: a singer who hangs around much longer than he deserves because people feel sorry for him.

  • ht23

    I wouldn’t even be surprised! She doesn’t have enough of a fan base. Last week, she placed fifth WITH the pimp slot. I think she’s in trouble.

  • Holden17C

    The Aretha version of “ER” is very soulful, almost gospel. Candace could do that well, but it wouldn’t be showing us anything new from her. Someone needs to be unpredictable.

  • Incipit

    “Imagine” is at the SIX Times You’re Out Limit (that we wish we had!!) for a song…because Archie did it twice, one was a Finale reprise. Seasons and 11 have taken shots at it. Only Archie has scored more than 60. The list includes Ruben, Jennifer Hudson, Blake Lewis, Archie, and Joshua Ledet. There are no male performers this season who ought to be even thinking about this song – it will kill them.

  • alar borja

    Am rooting for underdogs … want Amber, Burnell , and Janelle to stay around for a while… just for some weekly surprise … no fun to know who could ” win ” so early ..want everyone to run scared for a bit..

  • chillj

    Well, Sir Mac, I agree with you that Candice was the best last week, but I think Candice was better overall last year. I think she and Kree may be neck and neck.

  • chillj

    I think JHud is one of the few people who could pull this off, because her voice is so distinctive and un-Beatley: it automatically becomes “her own.”

  • Pippygirl

    I can’t stand Gokey, but he is Pavarotti compared to Lazaro.

  • CB40

    Most of the song choices last week were just horrible. And of all the songs to choose from these winners’ catalogs, they chose THREE coronation songs. It really shouldn’t have gone down like that.

  • Le Viet Anh Nghi

    Burnell, please do something uptempo #teamBurnell

  • jjose712

    But Gokey was constantly overpraised during his season, he was Adam’s main rival (maybe in his dreams), the the judges didn’t dismay in heavy criticism of Alison and Kris to make him look better. For the life of me that i never undertood that, because even with a good voice (wich is very different of being a good singer) there was very clear that he wasn’t a superstar in the making. I don’t see the judges praising Lazaro tha way (or in any way) but Lazaro is a lot more likeable than Gokey, so his back story will be a factor for a while

  • vortexpanel

    The internet is not the real world. Only a tiny percentage of Idol viewers will sign up for twitter, message boards, etc. None of that stuff is an accurate gauge of popularity.

  • tinawina

    I would hesitate putting Candice at the top of the list for multiple reasons, not the least of which I don’t know exactly where she was in the top 3. She easily had the best, most buzzed about performance of the night and it aired in the better watched second hour. If she came in at #3 even with all that, still not able to get past Angie and Kree, it spells weakness for her. If she was number 1 or even number 2, that would put her on better ground. I think her position will get stronger as the other R&B-ish singers get voted off.

    I think Amber is on very shaky ground, but a few weeks of strong performances/fresher song choices could but her back on track. I can see her getting past 1 or 2 of the big 3 girls (Kree, Amber and Candice) but not so much all 3.

    I still think it’s Angie’s to lose just because she is the most charismatic female and she plays an instrument, but I think Kree can certainly win if she makes engaging song choices, but I’m not sure she will. I feel like we’ve had a few seasons of the prototype “down to earth/down home girl” female getting close to taking it all but not quite making it all the way (Crystal, Lauren, Skylar) so Kree could be the one to finally break through.

    I still think Lazaro could turn into a contender if he gets a string of good performances going, but it is way more likely he will sputter out despite his charm, because he will continue to sing cheesy songs badly.

  • Livi2

    But isn’t it also a tiny percentage of viewers who will actually cast a large fraction of the votes? I think Ryan said there were 29 million votes last week. I’m guessing a typical power-texter will cast at least 300 votes (or at least, that’s about how many I can manage in the 15 minutes I’m usually willing to spend on it — and lots of people probably beat me on both typing speed and patience). So more than half of those 29M votes could easily be coming from only 50,000 people, which is less than the number of followers Angie has on Twitter.

    So, even though Twitter followers probably don’t represent the audience as a whole, I would guess they’re more likely to represent the part of the audience that’s committed enough to vote like mad for their favorites, and so they’re almost certainly going to have a huge influence on the results…

  • MV007

    I think history tells us that twitter followers mean absolutely nothing. Astro had to learn this lesson the hardway on the X factor. You are also assuming things about power voters that are based purely on speculation. I don’t think we actually know who is voting or how much certain demo’s are voting. That is all speculation and educated guesses. But what we do know is that the top twitter accounts do not have much of a correlation to votes especially the deeper we get into the competition.

  • MV007

    I think history tells us that twitter followers mean absolutely nothing. Astro had to learn this lesson the hardway on the X factor. You are also assuming things about power voters that are based purely on speculation. I don’t think we actually know who is voting or how much certain demo’s are voting. That is all speculation and educated guesses. But what we do know is that the top twitter accounts do not have much of a correlation to votes especially the deeper we get into the competition.

  • Eilonwy

    If that was so, Twitter follower count would have predicted who’d advance and who’d be eliminated in S10 and S11. It didn’t. The relationship between follower count and elimination order is essentially random.

    (I documented this for both S10 and S11, haven’t done so this season, and would really prefer not to take on that time-waster again.)

  • Livi2

    Fair enough — mostly, my point was that the bit about Twitter users representing a tiny portion of the audience seemed like a red herring, since it’s entirely possible for an equally tiny portion to dominate the voting. They may well be non-correlated portions, though.

  • jd88

    Yes Burnell desperately needs to go uptempo, I’m rooting for him.

  • Montavilla

    So, even though Twitter followers probably don’t represent the audience as a whole, I would guess they’re more likely to represent the part of the audience that’s committed enough to vote like mad for their favorites, and so they’re almost certainly going to have a huge influence on the results…

    Does this take in account those people who decide to follow all the current contestants? There’s no way to know which way those people would break on a given week.

  • tigervixxxen

    Yeah I get that but it is an indicator of overall popularity. I also said Devin was 9th in votes and the pimp spot only got Amber to 5th, so non twitter based indicators of decreased popularity.

  • tigervixxxen

    No twitter isn’t the only measure or else Colton would have won last year. But it is an indicator of overall popularity that is one factor in predicting who will go home. Other factors such as performance order, judge feedback, song selection matter too. But numerical representations of overall popularity can’t be discounted as meaningless. iTunes reviews is another numerical measurable indicator of popularity that I’ve tracked for years and it does offer meaningful data.

  • tigervixxxen

    Maybe I should pose it less as twitter followers won’t predict who will win but it certainly will point to who WON’T win.