Hits Daily Double’s 1 day sales prediction has Carrie Underwood, Adele and Adam Lambert battling it out for the #1 spot on the Billboard 200:

While it’s still early in the week, a three-way battle is shaping up for #1 between Adele and Carrie Underwood, both of which will have substantial post-Mother’s Day drops, and Adam Lambert, who appears to be trending to the high end of expectations.

The former American Idol runner-up and 19/RCA recording artist’s sophomore album, Trespassing, looks set to debut with between 70-80k, which will at least put him in the running for a chart-topping bow.

Expect a sales prediction update from hits on Thursday afternoon.

UPDATE: Billboard cites industry sources who say Carrie Underwood’s current champ, Blown Away, or Adele’s 21  could both sell 65,000 to 75,000.

 
  • Guest

    I personally hope Carrie can hang in there at number 1 for the 3rd week in a row :)

  • http://twitter.com/MissGolightly22 No Thanks

    The Idol performance should give Adam a decent boost.

    ETA: And I thought HDD gave their “weak-end” update on Fridays???

  • Anonymous

    Come on, Adam!

  • http://twitter.com/SingandBreak SingAndBreak

    Whether he gets the Nr 1 spot or not, seems like first week sales numbers are not going to be bad, so I’m happy, he deserves it!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_MV64BS4FSISCASL4P656RXAFYQ Kayla

    Like I said in the numbers thread earlier, I’m legit afraid to hope too hard for that #1, Adele is a selling machine and if I remember right Carrie’s got a Billboard Awards performance on Sunday which should drive some sales. But unless HDD’s prediction is too high or there’s someone HDD didn’t mention whose sales spike unexpectedly, it seems like Adam’s got an great shot at a top three slot which would still be fantastic.

    I would be thrilled if Adam really did manage to hit somewhere between 70K-80K, my expectations were definitely lower. I’m really hopeful that Adam’s Idol performance will help him reach HDD’s prediction! 

  • Anonymous

    So happy!!

  • Anonymous

    Good thing his debut is when there are no other big releases. Hope he makes it.

  • http://twitter.com/MissGolightly22 No Thanks

    Isn’t the sales week cut off Sunday night?

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    How thrilling for Lambert!

    Adele and Underwood are both unlikely targets to beat, but #3 against those juggernauts would still be impressive. And HDD’s estimate is higher than mine (I was on Team 65k).

  • windmills

    No Thanks: 
    ETA: And I thought HDD gave their “weak-end” update on Fridays???

    No, HDD’s been posting those on Thursday evening Eastern time lately. The data is based on sales through the middle of the day Thursday. Billboard’ll post its own projection later today, and they’ll post an updated projection Friday evening  based on the building Soundscan album sales chart.

    I expect Blown Away to take a higher than usual 3rd week drop to compensate for its lower than usual 2nd week drop of 55%. The usual 3rd week drop is in the 35% range so if BA drops 40% that’d put it in the 70-72k range. Carrie did perform on DWTS last night but that’s it as far as US promo that’s likely to have its main impact this week. Sunday night’s Billboard Awards performance is more likely to soften the next week’s drop than bump up sales this week. 

    Adele sold 77k the week before Mother’s Day shopping so I’d expect her to be in the mid 70k range for this week’s sales. So, as long as Adam is in or above the expected range I think he’s got a great chance at #1 :)

    EDIT: Along the lines of what I was predicting Billboard has the same 70-80k projection for Adam and says 65-75k for Carrie & Adele.

  • http://twitter.com/MissGolightly22 No Thanks

    http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/charts-ar….07075162.stor
    yThe Good News: Adam Lambert is vying for his
    first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart next week. The Bad News:
    His Trespassing set may only sell around 70,000 to 80,000 copies by the end of
    the tracking week on Sunday, May 20, so say industry sources. It could mark the
    smallest sum at No. 1 on the chart since last August (chart dated Aug. 20), when
    Adele’s 21 sold 76,000 in its 12th nonconsecutive week atop the list, according
    to Nielsen SoundScan.Adam Lambert Signs Admin Deal With KobaltBut don’t
    break out the bubbly just yet. Trespassing may be blocked from the top slot next
    week by either Carrie Underwood’s current champ, Blown Away, or Adele’s 21. Both
    albums could sell perhaps 65,000 to 75,000. The new Billboard 200
    chart’s top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Wednesday, May 23.
    Lambert, who finished in second place on the 2009 season of Fox TV’s
    “American Idol,” saw his first major label studio album, For Your Entertainment,
    debut at No. 3 later that year with 198,000 in its first week (according to
    SoundScan). The album was released during the very busy Thanksgiving shopping
    week and was blocked from the top slot by Susan Boyle’s I Dreamed a Dream (a
    debut at No. 1) and Andrea Bocelli’s My Christmas at No. 2.

  • http://twitter.com/marianbpainter Marian B. Painter

    So excited and happy for Adam Lambert.  His new alum Trespassing is sheer delight/genius and the major reviews have been fabulous.  Adam deserves and has earned his place at the #1 spot!  All Adam fans please buy his album and let make it so!!!!! 

  • Anonymous

    Good for all three of them, but since it would probably impact Adam the most, great for him!

  • Mars87

    Go for it Adam.
    Who’s still buying Adele? I thought the whole planet had her CD

  • Trina

    I love Carrie. I love Adele. But they have their #1 albums already. Please ladies, drop hard so Adam can get that #1!

  • http://twitter.com/whiskey401 Whiskey

    Adam is always up against the big dogs. Last time it was Susan Boyle and Andrea Bocelli. 70-80k is not bad at all with no hit single to support the album and I think releasing the album on a Tuesday he lost a day in sales. An Idol performance hasn’t done much in sales recently so I’m looking at maybe 10k. Also if Amazon can give him a one day sale that can help. If he can pull 80-90k he may have a shot at #1.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Kathleen-Moore/100001271239732 Kathleen Moore

    Don’t have Adele’s yet. I’m still waiting for it to go on sale. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/GED45R7LV4QERBS74RT6INK65I fed

    adam was pretty much the only big release this week. i agree, though, with the Idol perf. im thinking 80-90k. 

    adele just…insane. i wonder if she’ll stay in the top10 for the rest of the year. probably right?

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/ZBDLZ32F75BVLTPB2GXI5P4DAM artgoodart

    Not bad for Adam considering there is no hit single but still this has got to be somewhat of a disappointment when Adam had all the momentum in the world, and was in a position to really break out with the hit writers/producers, promo, and media support that it will only sell around 70-80K.

  • gferna

    I can’t believe it.  75K copies is a bad number to start, considering preorders…
    Oh my God, FYE sold 185K first week.
    I rememeber I bought my deluxe Trespass on December2011… and only 75K?
    2nd week sales are critical.  RCA dropped DC, and so far, he has sold more than Adam. Sorry for the rant, this CD is very good and seems like, in spite of all the exposure, nobody is paying attention…

  • Anonymous

    Hello Everyone!

    ‘Adam Lambert Vying for #1 on Billboard 200′ Made me chuckle:-) Adam should too as if his life depends on it.LOL

     It would be nice if he is number 1 but a good placing should be the main aim at this rate. What’s important is to build momentum on how to sell this killer album. With no hit single at the moment he knows its a step hill. Adele and Carrie who he is suppose to be ‘vying’ for, have a hit single to drive their albums and rightfully so-they deserve it;-)

     Its a miracle he is sitting at the top of the iTunes album chart without any album single to drive it. This tells me that once DMG/RCA find their grove in shifting this brilliant album it will sell! I am impressed with the promotion so far:-)

    I  am pleased with the number predicted but looking through my looking glass he may surprise:-)

    Enjoy the Evening:-)

    Regards

    B-Babie
    xx

  • Anonymous

    No its not GFerna. For one, preorders for Trespassing at most retailers was not in December, maybe at AO, but I don’t think so. Amazon and Itunes were much later. Two-Adam isn’t coming straight off idol and no radio hit right now. Not sure how a top 3 placement is a tragedy. It’s not November and black Friday.

    Also, if you read the hdd article, he is trending higher than expectations.

  • Axxxel

    Yeah, high hopes for Adam Lambert’s ‘American Idol ‘ performance this week to draw more attention.

  • http://twitter.com/whiskey401 Whiskey

    The last time Adam album was released was during the Thanksgiving week and he was coming off Idol. This is the time of the year where albums tend to sell at the lower end. Most people predicted 50-70k. His drop this time isn’t that for off from drops with Idols that had a hit single. The few fans that expected more without a single on the charts were delusional but I didn’t see too many of those.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WIHKL34XDORTS2UZP4SWUUTG3U randi

    I can’t believe it.  75K copies is a bad number to start, considering preorders…Oh my God, FYE sold 185K first week.I rememeber I bought my deluxe Trespass on December2011… and only 75K?2nd week sales are critical.  RCA dropped DC, and so far, he has sold more than Adam. Sorry for the rant, this CD is very good and seems like, in spite of all the exposure, nobody is paying attention…

    giggle snort

  • Anonymous

    Fear not, Adam will sell at a decent number here in the US. He will do very well internationally to make up for the US sales.

  • Trina

    DC may have sold more than Adam overall with his debut album but Adam is clearly going to outsell him in the sophomore album department.  IMO he’ll be given more of a chance especially if NCOE catches on. Plus he sells well internationally.

  • http://twitter.com/RonnieDRocks Ronnie D

    I am going to continue to enjoy this album regardless if it goes #1. I don’t even listen to Carrie Underwood, but then again I’m not into factory produced country lol. If Adam takes #1 that would be awesome! I am hoping for the day for the haters to all eat crow! :)

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/5WIQPFXDKN3VQPEVL347RUSZ64 Sher

    This is terrific.  Seriously.  I’m very happy for Adam.  He must be extremely excited!

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    RCA dropped DC, and so far, he has sold more than Adam.

    ???

    Based on the predictions, Adam is going to sell more than DC in 2-3 weeks. I mean, he doesn’t seem to follow the pattern set by David of having an 85% drop rate from his debut, so most likely his later sales will be dropping at normal, not drastic, rate too.

  • Anonymous

    Tuesday is (pretty much) industry standard release day in the US. Other countries release on other days. Nobody really knows why. But anyway, he didn’t “lose” a day any more than any other artist would. Albums are almost *never* released on a day other than Tuesday in the US.

  • Mateja Praznik

     I don’t think it even matters if Adam manages to outsell DC in 2 or 3 weeks. Unless radio picks up his single, the album won’t have legs and RCA has no use for popstars that can’t get radio to play their singles. Sadly.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “The Idol performance should give Adam a decent boost.”

    Could be enough so that Trespassing can debut at #1.

    “Trespassing, looks set to debut with between 70-80k”

    That’s about what I expected.

  • Anonymous

    Tuesday is (pretty much) industry standard release day in the US. Other countries release on other days. Nobody really knows why. But anyway, he didn’t “lose” a day any more than any other artist would. Albums are almost *never* released on a day other than Tuesday in the US.

  • Anonymous

    Well, he will have one less sales day than the other two artists vying for number 1.

    Anyway, 70-80 would be nice if it holds.

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    I know, Mateja, you’ve said it enough times. I just commented on the odd comparison of a David Cook album  released a year ago selling more than an album being out for 2 days.

  • http://twitter.com/svmreiter Susan Reiter

    I love this headline!  GO ADAM!!!

  • LaurelG

    Great news! I had really lowered my expectations because of that sophomore curse/slump, so a top 3 finish and sales in the 70′s would be gravy. I finally heard NCOE on the Top 40 station here in Chicago at 10:30 in the morning today. It sounded great! Adam will be performing in the station’s Fantabuloso radio concert on Friday.

  • fuzzywuzzy
  • newinNM

    Yea for Adam, hoping for that #1 spot but will gladly take 2nd or 3rd especially when Adele and Carrie are the other two names being thrown around.  “Adam Lambert tops Adele” lol that has a nice ring to it!!  Topping the billboard chart makes for good press and RCA and his management will use it to their advantage.  It’s a good start, maybe not as big as we all hoped, but a very good start and really he’s just getting started.  He’s produced an amazing album (IMHO) that has gotten great reviews and his label is fully behind him. He has a major TV appearance (idol) coming up, lots of radio concerts and the new video is out next week.  He’s doing promo in Canada and the UK, and has concerts scheduled in California, London and Asia and I just bet we see more concerts/shows/festivals pop up.  It’s to expensive for his band to go to London for just one show, there has to be more.  I’m exhausted just thinking about everything he has going on and all that travel! OOFTA!!!  Lets not forget the Queen concerts, that’s huge.  I know we like to compare Idol contestants, but Adam’s situation is so different that we just can’t compare. I’m not saying HE is better (no fan wars please) just that the SITUATION is very different from other sophomore album releases.  We are just gonna have to sit back and watch and see how this all plays out. It’s gonna be a wild ride and I for one am going to enjoy every minute of it! Bring on the vids!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_SYFK77IYLRQIVATQ2MJKSW2J7Y Pam

    DC may have sold more than Adam overall with his debut album but Adam is clearly going to outsell him in the sophomore album department.  IMO he’ll be given more of a chance especially if NCOE catches on. Plus he sells well internationally.

    Exactly.  You simply can’t ignore the hard numbers.  With the airplay Adam is receiving right now with to a lesser extent for BTKIM and now with what he’s getting with NCOE, I would say those numbers aren’t too shabby especially if Adam manages to get to #1.  Not bad at all.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    But, those other albums are on their 3rd week (Carrie) or 64th week (Adele) after release, so I think that the extra day hardly should be used as a rationale for those albums having higher sales when compared to the debut week for Adam.

  • YankeeFan08

     RCA dropped DC, and so far, he has sold more than Adam. 

    Actually that’s not true.  DC sold more in the US than Adam did with their first albums, but Adam sold more internationally.  And yes those international sales count … that’s why RCA says Adam “sold almost 2 million”.  That’s RCA saying that … that’s not something made up by fans to make Adam look good.  Adam also sold more singles than DC.  Just keeping it real ….

    70-80K is quite nice considering how some other Idols have done with their sophomore albums.  Now we just need NCOE to get moving.  I wish the adds date was sooner.

  • http://twitter.com/MissGolightly22 No Thanks

    David Cook never sold well internationally like Adam did/does.  David Cook’s career really isn’t a good comparison to make.

  • Anonymous

    Totally agree.  I was just explaining why someone earlier said “lost a day” or something like that.  I think most people know new releases are on Tuesday.

  • sf3456

    Well, let me go buy a couple of Adele albums. Maybe even Carrie Underwood, too.

  • http://twitter.com/MarieAru23 Marie

    Hahahah…Sorry, that is all :p

  • http://twitter.com/DCfanfromMo pat

    Can we stop buying copies of Adele’s album?  I was sick of it a looooooong time ago.  

  • Anonymous

    Wow, I really hope he can get that #1! And I am also hoping he ends up closer to 90k.

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    Well, let me go buy a couple of Adele albums. Maybe even Carrie Underwood, too.

    American Idol, lol. It’s the real world now, though.

  • Mars87

    Me neither. I plan on never buying Adele’s 21. She’s fantastic but enough already

  • windmills

    Trina: I love Carrie. I love Adele. But they have their #1 albums already. Please ladies, drop hard so Adam can get that #1!

    Why wish them big drops? Why not just wish Adam a bigger trend up? ;)

  • Guest

    Yeah, I wonder how the hell Adele is staying up there. I would think everybody on Earth has that album.

    Either way, I really hope Adam’s album does well. I don’t think I’ll ever think it’s as good as people say it is, but I’ve really warmed up to it. I like FYE better for the presence of more of a rock sound, but I’d say that at least even if I hate dance pop most of the time, Adam’s really made it… cohesive, I think is the word.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/EURGBG72TTLMZOP4TWK726OQ6Y ricardo

    FYI sold over 2 m worldwide most of the other don’t sell much outside the usa but adele and susan boyle

  • gferna

    Well, maybe I overreacted… at least Adam is still #1 on itunes.  This is something important, isn’t it?
    2nd week sales will tell the whole story.  I don’t know why, but I like the guy… I want him to succeed…  I agree, tomorrow performance of NCOE is gonna be huge for him.  How can he surpass the laser-fog tornado?

  • sf3456

    American Idol, lol. It’s the real world now, though.

    I don’t get it.  What are you trying to say?

  • newinNM

    “2nd week sales will tell the whole story”

    In this case I don’t think that’s true, there are to many chapters yet to be written.  The album doesn’t drop in the UK until July. 
    Take David A for example, did anyone think after his second week of sales that he would go on to have such great success in Asia?!?!  lets wait and see and enjoy the ride

  • Anonymous

    Unless the purchaser in question is blasting via earbuds too loudly, what difference does it make if someone else buys an album you’ve retired?

    I say let that girl keep selling as long as the market will bear.  XL is a good label and that money improves the development budget for ALL XL’s artists.

    Also, it would be great for Lambert if he gets a #1, but it’s not some big tragedy if he doesn’t.  Those women are powerhouses; the ranking says nothing about his own appeal.

  • Anonymous

    Yes – really curious about tomorrow.  He has such an inventive, theatrical mind.

  • Anonymous

    When’s the vid dropping?

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know if this twitter has ay official connection to Bieber, but it does have nearly 500K followers, so maybe new ears for Adam ?

    JustinBieberArmy

    #If you haven’t already, check out @AdamLambert‘s killer new album#TRESPASSING which is #1 on iTunes! http://bit.ly/K8ePaa

  • Anonymous

    but that week was November, right before Christmas so this is not bad

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    … Seriously?

    Ok, if it was really so hard to understand: ~some people still seem to be stuck in the competition-TV mentality of “voting against”.

  • shell29

    I think 70-80K is a great opening week for Adam.  I was thinking he’d fall in the 50-60K range.  He’s had some decent pre-release promo but he’s still about three years removed from his season and doesn’t have a big radio presence at the moment.  Plus unlike FYE this album isn’t being released during the holiday season.  I wouldn’t have expected him to come anywhere near the first week sales of FYE, but 70-80K is a great start IMO.  Of course it will take a strong single to give this album “staying power” on the sales charts.

    I like Adele and Carrie but I’m hoping the Idol appearance will give Adam enough of a boost to pass those ladies and grab the #1 spot on Billboard.  That would be great pub for Adam and this album.

  • newinNM

    I saw something on twitter about Vevo and next week, lol but it’s twitter so who knows, Adam said in an interview in the next two weeks

  • Anonymous

    I will be very excited for Adam if he achieves number one, but a bit bummed at the mention in the billboard article about it possibly being the lowest number one sales wise since August. You know snakes like Perez will take that little tidbit and spin it to make Adam look bad. He has the number one album… but it’s the lowest since aug and less than his first album blah blah. People will use that to diminish his success, just like these couple reviews where they have nothing to say about his voice because it’s awesome so they just come up with stuff that has nothing to do with the music to criticize him for. I am so happy for him, he’s created such an awesome album, but as a fan it’s frustrating that when it comes to Adam every compliment feels backhanded. Like give the man his freakin due.

  • http://twitter.com/MissGolightly22 No Thanks

    I know it’s totally bizarre, but Adam has ALWAYS had the love of tons of Bieber fans.  Adam and The Biebs met ages ago at a radio concert and got along well.  Justin has always been supportive.

  • http://twitter.com/sgjools julia

    damn, thats nice girlygirl. Trespassing is also getting a lot of love on twitter from gaga and 1d fans. 

    It’s a fantastic pop album so its not surprising that pop fans are feeling it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    I agree. I know people vote against Adam in polls (which I never understood) but I didn’t think anyone would actually plop down money against someone. Wow.

  • http://twitter.com/whiskey401 Whiskey

    This one has 800k followers. Go beleiberts!!

    Justin Bieber Fans ?@JustinBieberFan

    If you haven’t already, check out @AdamLambert’s killer new album #TRESPASSING which is #1 at iTunes! http://itunes.apple.com/us/album/trespassing-deluxe-version/id518854512

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ACMLXLYSSX73RNYQOUZWSO2I4U Enough already!

    Not looking to place a target, but we all know that country fans buy albums which sets Carrie up in a win win situation.   What I am wondering is where are the LGBT fan base that should be supporting Adam by buying this fabulous album?   I really doubt I need to set forth any further explanations on why this is important!!!  You take care of your own, period!     

  • http://twitter.com/whiskey401 Whiskey

    All of the Gleek, Belieber and Britney army tweets to buy Trespassing are just amazing. Hope they buy!!!

  • Tess

    LOL…I would think that the LGBT community is as diverse as the populace at large and that their taste in music isn’t influenced by the fact that there is a “gay” singer out there.  That, to me, is like assuming that all blacks will support black artists, or all women over the age of 50 (like me) will buy anything Susan Boyle offers up for sale.  I don’t think Adam, himself, would be particularly thrilled if he thought that he was being served up as a cause and not moving forward based on his own talent and skills.

  • sf3456

    Yeah, and that was a joke that you took seriously. I’m really going to go buy Adele and Carrie Underwood now.

  • Anonymous

    Us gays aren’t some sort of union.  We are as varied as straight people, and not all share the same likes, dislikes or social views.

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    ….

    *sigh*

    I understood the joke. However, only a person stuck in the competion-TV mentality would make it and that’s what I was referring to in my original comment.

  • Anonymous

    Oh.. Adam’s going to bring his band back to London sometimes June or July. The G-A-Y Club already confirmed Adam’s performance but I don’t think they give any date yet. This is the club he’s performing for FYE in 2010.

    Jeremy Joseph G-A-Y ‏ @JeremyJosephA Good Start To Wednesday – ADAM LAMBERT Confirmed for G-A-Y

    http://www.pressparty.com/pg/newsdesk/londonnewsdesk/view/46858/

    A UK fan said that it’s possible that it’s going to be at the end of June.

  • http://twitter.com/sgjools julia

    All of the Gleek

    Wait the Gleeks are tweeting too?  Awesome.  I LOVE that this is happening naturally!  Adam didn’t even need to do a lame cover of anybodies song to try and hook himself onto other fanbases coatails!  He made a great album that pop fans are digging :)

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    Lol, not really. It’s not like “voting” translates to “buying” in the Idol bubble, after all. ;)

  • YankeeFan08

    Hmmm … this is interesting … Britney’s fans are tweeting about Trespassing too.

  • http://twitter.com/MoriaPolonius Moria Polonius

    Britney’s fans are tweeting about Trespassing too.

    Hah, Adam’s made really good pop music, it’s natural!

  • http://twitter.com/tinawinabina Tinawina

    Oooh, this is exciting! Its a real race to the finish!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002166668687 Ali Goria

    Right. There’s a very nice 5 page piece on the Village Voice called “100 & Single: Buy An Adam Lambert Album, Strike A Tiny Blow For Gay Rights”. It discusses how not a single out pop star has ever topped Billboard 200 in 60 years and wouldn’t it be nice for the community to have that happen at this time. No, I’m not suggesting he’s any more “deserving” of populist consumerist message with people’s money but this is another way of looking at it. Since single issue voting is not uncommon, imo, it’s kind of the same thing. Mileage varies but the article is interesting anyway.

  • Anonymous

    I am crossing my fingers and toes.  I got my CD today, popped it in my car’s stereo and took a scenic drive up the coast.  Life doesn’t get much better than that.  Best album I have gotten in many a year, and that is why I think it will do well.  Cream rises to the top.  
    I think Adam will get a really good Idol bump because he is “Adam” master of great performances.  He has nerves of steel.

  • Anonymous

    Vevo said that NCOE video will be launched at their site next week.

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    “I don’t think it even matters if Adam manages to outsell DC in 2 or 3
    weeks. Unless radio picks up his single, the album won’t have legs and
    RCA has no use for popstars that can’t get radio to play their singles.
    Sadly.”

    This makes no sense at all. RCA only cares about the bottom line — and album sales are far more profitable than single sales. They have many artists on their roster who sell album not singles. It is the music business — they want profitable artists.

    The NCOE music video releases next week and the track is impacting radio in 2 weeks. I really can’t imagine that Adam is headlining radio concerts across the US this summer without a commitment for some radio airplay.

    “We know this album has several singles. We want a No. 1 album, and we feel good about the setup.”
    RCA Vice President of Marketing Nick Pirovano, LA Times, May 14, 2012

    There are other statements that are similar in the Billboard article about the album — and RCA execs have said that the promo plan for this album extends into 2013.—Trespassing is still #1 on iTunes. Adam is on American Idol tomorrow night. They move to radio promo trailing the album. I think Adam will get this week’s #1 album. But more importantly, this album is selling in multiple countries.

  • Anonymous

    What I am wondering is where are the LGBT fan base that should be supporting Adam by buying this fabulous album? I really doubt I need to set forth any further explanations on why this is important!!! You take care of your own, period!

          

    Where are they? Probably where they were when the B52′s, or Ray Boltz or Tonex or Rob Halford or The Scissor Sisters or Fischerspooner or Michael Stipe or any of the Brits who are openly gay release or released music – listening to artists they like to hear! Just like everyone else!

  • Anonymous

    Pharell fans website is promoting Trespassing too :)

  • http://twitter.com/sgjools julia

    That article was written by a straight man and has been ignored by GLBT sites though Ali.

    *edited to remove the comment that Hermatically found offensive. Once again, my apologies.

    On the flip side another group that is showing a LOT of twitter love for the album is ……. gay men :)

  • revcat

    This may be a stupid question, but does RCA make money on music sales alone, or do they “front” money for artists’ concerts and merchandise recouping said money plus a healthy share of the profit when the artist tours???

    Very few artists can make a lot of money based on music sales alone. That being said comparing Adam to anyone else is kind of pointless; he is not in the same league as top tier power players, but he is certainly not in the cellar either. He made 5 million dollars last year which is a far cry from his salad days. Approximately half of his fans (based on sales) are abroad, I think that will continue to grow and that he will at least hold steady here.

    I think he should collaborate with Rihanna, i could totally see a production of Naked Love featuring Rihanna being a huge smash. Call me crazy, I think it would be genius:)

  • YankeeFan08

    Wow, iTunes Main, Music and Pop pages all default to Adam’s banner!  Yesterday and earlier today it was just Pop.  I guess this is what happens when you are #1.  Sweet!!

  • windmills

    Enough already!: Not looking to place a target, but we all know that country fans buy albums which sets Carrie up in a win win situation.

    Then why is it that country is so far behind rock (which probably includes pop but does not include alternative or metal), alternative, and R&B in terms of album sales by genre as confirmed by Nielsen Soundscan? Too, as hard as it may be to believe, country fans have diverse tastes and don’t all just run to buy the same albums when they do choose to buy albums!

    The “country sells” meme as a way of making it sound like country acts have it easier selling is factually wrong just like your statement that there’s been a vacuum of women in country music the last 7 years leaving the field free and clear for Carrie was flat out wrong (as I also proved with links).

  • too-cool-for-school

    Whether he does reach #1 or not, I think he deserves to get it! That album is pop perfection, with a lot of other good stuff mixed in. Good luck, Adam!

  • Anonymous

    Adam’s PR in London

    Outside Edge @OutsideEdgePR Adam Lambert will perform at G-A-Y in London on June 9th > http://fb.me/1SmXQbbjC #trespassing

  • iani

    With the airplay Adam is receiving right now with to a lesser extent for
    BTKIM and now with what he’s getting with NCOE, I would say those
    numbers aren’t too shabby especially if Adam manages to get to #1.
    -Pam

    “We know this album has several singles. We want a No. 1 album, and we feel good about the setup.”

    I like that his management and RCA promotion/marketing teams have worked pretty well  and proficiently the media, lots of mainstream-media coverages and good reviews, RS and Billboard still love him, wherever Adam’s name is the “superstar” is there too, the only missing here is the “hit” song to accompany all the good promo, so, please bring on the hit-song now! With all good promo and a decent song on mid-chart of CHR he might have gotten over 100K this time around(he still might get it if people will like his single on Thursday though). 80K is a good number for a second album, it demonstrates that he still have lots of fans that like and support him, but with more radio-plays of a better first single he could have secured his #1 position for the first week much easier.

  • dante

    Hmm…….I am BIG Adam fan……this may cause me to buy this week :)

  • Anonymous

    Yes, well, again, we aren’t a union. No group (minority or otherwise) acts as a single entity, nor universally holds the same values and goals. I like Adam as much as one can short of being bsc, but I certainly am not going to “shame” people for not liking him, or buying his product out of some sort of well meaning, but misguided notion of “social agenda.”

    Personally, I’d rather Adam hit number 1 because he’s liked that much, than because of others attempting to make a statement. And from what Adam has stated, he seems to agree.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know why, I think that they’re going a bit high on expected sales for Adam and I think they’re going to come in lower than these predictions. I mean his two singles haven’t exactly burned up the charts, and sold tons. So not like he has radio support of this, at this point. 
    But however it turns out, I do hope the album does well in terms of overall sales. Because even if it hit number one on the charts and t did so with 70K, that’s not great. And with no singles at this point to give it legs, the second week drop will not be pretty. 

    So yeah, hope the new single does better than the last, and that helps give the album some legs. 

    Yeah, I’m being pessimistic, but that’s how I feel about it. I hope I’m wrong, though. 

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    I have no interest is comparing two artist I like based on trivia like sales units* but if you want to compare, the numbers should be accurate.

    FYE has now outsold all of David Cook’s albums.

    “Since the release of Lambert’s debut album For Your Entertainment in 2009 it has sold nearly 2 million copies worldwide”

    Source RCA press release — http://www.rcarecords.com/news/global-superstar-adam-lambert-releases-single-%E2%80%9Cnever-close-our-eyes%E2%80%9D

    * I am more interested in the music than the numbers except that if Trespassing is the #1 Billboard 200 album in the US, Adam will be the first openly gay artist to do it. Link to article with history: http://blogs.villagevoice.com/music/2012/05/adam_lambert_gay_pop_star.php
    And the #1 spot really matters for other gay artists.

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    The cd releases in the Uk on July 1st, doesn’t it? it would make sense in the last week of June just before he launches the cd and the does the Queen concerts.  

  • http://twitter.com/sgjools julia

    as an adam fan, I’m happy that he is selling on his own but as a longtime political activist, i also understand the importance of knocking down social barriers and the US entertainment industry is littered with them. 

    That is all I was saying.  I apologize if i gave the impression that I was trying to ‘shame’ anybody.  I wasn’t.  it was simply an observation from woman who identifies as bisexual and lived through the civil rights battle in the UK in the 80s

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    It probably helped that Adam said he had bought Justin’s new single and that he really liked it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Carrie can get her wholesome country girl dress out the way. It is time to Trespass all over that nonsense! :)

  • Anonymous

    I’m enjoying the fact that 2 of the 3 artists vying for #1 for this week are Idol alums. 

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    Your figures sound solid to me. As of this morning Adam was #1 at Barnes & Noble but Adele was #2 so she’s holding. She had dropped to #6 on iTunes, though. I have no idea about respective market share for these outlets.

    I think Adele is the bigger threat but Carrie Underwood is being interviewed by Oprah tonight.

  • Anonymous

    Adam has always been a considerate, genuine, nice guy.  He supports others in his industry and from Idol.  It is one reason I like him so much.  He is the real thing and can actually sing.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    I don’t have Adele’s yet and have no intention on buying it. I am sick of those songs because I have not been able to avoid them. Radio plays them all the time. You cannot escape them. I hti a different channel when they come on now.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    How does a single burn up the charts if it is not being played? And how does a single sell if it is not being played? Lots of Adam fans are requesting NCOE. If PDs don’t want to play it, not sure what else can be done. I am pretty sure if NCOE were released by Bruno Mars, they would be playing it every hour and it would burn up the charts. 

    Same thing can be said for Kris’s and Haley’s singles. How can they burn up the charts if they don’t have high AI and are not be played once an hour like Payphone, Kelly, and Adele? IMO, an uninteresting song like I Won’t Give Up has no trouble getting spins on both HAC and CHR, yet I haven’t seen it charting on itunes for a long time. I am starting to believe what Adam said about radio, that there is a lot of politics involved, and not necessarily the quality of the music.

  • windmills

    Not fit to print: I think Adele is the bigger threat but Carrie Underwood is being interviewed by Oprah tonight.

    Nope, that interview is also Sunday night.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Tenacious D, Willie Nelson, and Glee Graduation nonsense are big releases. Many were predicting that Glee would knock Adam out of the #1 spot during and after the show aired the other night. Adam remained #1 and has been #1 for 2 going on 3 days now. I think they are underestimating Adam’s sales the way they underestimate him all the time. Glamberts buy another copy of Trespassing to help Adam make history. 1st time an out LGBT individual debuts at #1 on BB200 album chart.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Yes beating all predictions and selling more than anyone guessed you would can be spun into somewhat of a disappoingment? Just wow.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    I can name several former and current Idols that would kill for the decent numbers that Adam is going to sell in the US. I think he is already surpassing expectations and I LOVE it!

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    I am pretty sure that RCA cares more about moving albums than singles. If word of mouth propels album sales radio will catch up. The snobbish corporate white old hetero boys club will eventually play Adam when the clubs play him and he hits in Europe they will catch up, in my opinion.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Did you make a prediction earlier on the blog about how much Adam would sell or what his % drop would be?

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    Me neither. Except when I hit a different channel, her songs are playing there too. I used to like Kelly, but my stations play her to death, even her old songs.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Go right ahead we know how big an Adam fan you are. We know you will be buying tons of Adam music in the future. Thank you for your unwavering support.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    I love how the goal post keeps moving for Adam. Some of his biggest fans just keep moving the goal post until they can say something less than positive about him.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WIHKL34XDORTS2UZP4SWUUTG3U randi

     

    Where are they? Probably where they were when the B52′s, or Ray Boltz or
    Tonex or Rob Halford or The Scissor Sisters or Fischerspooner or
    Michael Stipe or any of the Brits who are openly gay release or released
    music – listening to artists they like to hear! Just like everyone
    else!

    B52s were huge in their day, never heard of Ray Boltz, Rob Halford isn’t a solo artist, the Scissor Sisters aren’t mainstream in the U.S. (I’d never heard of them before Adam) and again who is Fischerspooner?  Michael stipe, also not a solo artist and also not completely out as the front man of REM who btw was hugely successful back in the day as well. 

    I don’t think the gay community should support Adam JUST because he’s gay and I doubt Adam has any interest in that either however, they should have an interest in the success and acceptance of the only CURRENT openly gay male pop artist in the market because HIS success WILL open the door for others’ to find the same success. 

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    HDD forecasts based on sales from selected retailers and selected locations. They do not get sales from Play.com which runs the Sony store and a lot of fans preordered from AdamOfficial.com.

    I think the wild cards with Trespassing is the well-timed Idol performance tomorrow night and the good to great reviews the album is getting. We’ll see but mark me down for HDD has this one a bit low.

  • Anonymous

    Haven’t bought Adam’s CD yet, but maybe I will.  I do really like Never Close Your Eyes, so maybe I’ll try it.  I listened to the snippets and overall the CD is more dance-y than my taste, but I wouldn’t mind supporting Adam. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    I think you ware seeing more support from the LGBT community with this CD release. The Village Voice article to buy the album and many new follwers on twitter are gay men. They are starting to come around in large numbers. As exciting to me have been the many many minority men and women from around the world that are tweeting about Adam’s album. They all report loving it and are really impressed with the direction Adam is heading. I say welcome one and all. Let’s all groove to the new music and I will see you all at many Adam concerts in the future.

  • glennethph

    I still think that for someone with his visibility and publicity, 75K is not something to write home about.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WIHKL34XDORTS2UZP4SWUUTG3U randi

     

    Because even if it hit number one on the charts and t did so with 70K, that’s not great.

    Next year, Next Month or 10 years down the road if Trespassing is #1 it won’t matter if it hit #1 with 70K or 700K it’ll still be a No 1 album. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Nelly Furtado was just talking about Adam on Capital radio on the UK today. Adam and Nelly are showing each other mutual love!

  • Anonymous

    Hooray for Adam! Whether he ends up number one or not it is obvious the album is being received well beyond expectations critically and sales wise. The album is sooooo good and it is getting him the respect he deserves IMO. This thing is selling all over the world for goodness sakes! The Idol bubble has a very narrow focus there is a bigger picture. I mean, he was high on ITunes in Mexico of all places. I am putting it out there that NCOE will also do very well. The impact date and video coming out at the same time is an excellent strategy. And all those radio concerts are not for nothing either. Love the album, love Adam.

  • Anonymous

    I try to stay out of numbers threads but I just had to come here and give congrats to Adam and his fans.  This is so great for him and so deserved.  He’s worked so hard, is so talented and is a wonderful person on top of all that.  I think that his Idol performance tomorrow night (can’t wait!!!) will push him well over predictions.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Roger-Kramjet/100003524695403 Roger Kramjet

    Is Oprah still on TV?

  • Anonymous

    Not that I have heard, but I never paid much attention to her.

  • Anonymous

     I think Adam’s had good support in the gay community, just not the media aspect so much.  I can only speak from my own experiences, but at his concert in OKC there were a good number of gay guys.  And the kids at the youth center my boss runs request his stuff often on dance nights.  If anything, I see more support for him from the younger generation, than the older one.

  • Anonymous

    Are digital downloads somehow estimated for HDD forecast?

  • Anonymous

    If Adam hits #1 with 70k in sales, then to me that says more about the state of music industry then it does about Adam. That’s why the ranking is so important because it’s about his sales success relative to what others are selling at the same time.

    I’m just happy he has a second album out (that I love) and it’s selling. Fingers and toes are triple crossed hoping he gets #1 just for bragging rights but if he doesn’t then fine. He looks to be selling enough to at least land in the top 5. That’s a big deal. Could he, Would he, Should he….sell more than what ever his first week numbers turn out to be? Well that way lies madness. Selling one album is better than none, two is better than one etc. My fan force fields are up because I know there will be plenty of comments coming next week about how poorly he is doing relative to ALL his promotion etc etc. That is an opinion that is impossible to prove (for me, for you, for me). So far his 15 minutes of fame are not yet up. So I’m celebrating that.

    What will be, will be!! Gonna get my zen on and listen to Trespassing again.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, he will always be able to say he had a number 1 record.

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

     “Are digital downloads somehow estimated for HDD forecast?”

    Yes, HDD’s forecasts include some information from iTunes.

    Their estimates are surprisingly accurate. They do miss sometimes when an album starts off really strong on the first day then fades quickly — they overestimated FYE with had a huge presale and very strong first day.

  • Anonymous

    So you’re saying that the AO sales will be counted in the final billboard total, but HDD does not have access to those numbers so they aren’t included in their prediction? If that’s the case, I’m thinking they are predicting a little low as well.

  • Anonymous

    Cook was never promoted internationally like Lambert so it’s definitely not a good comparison.

  • milwlovesadam

    My head is spinning. Am I to understand that all my pre-orders of multiple CD’s from AO don’t count? WTF? This can’t be true. I have no way of knowing, but gazillions of Glamberts ordered through AO to support Adam. How could those CD’s not count?

    Does anybody have access to correct info?

  • Anonymous

    They will count at the end, but sales on Play.com are not typically accounted for in these very early predictions. but it depends on whether the label gave HDD and Billboard their pre-sale number or not. I would assume they would, but no one can know for sure unless they work for HDD. I just wouldn’t get your hopes up that they are somehow miscalculating though. They’re usually very good at this prediction game, though of course 
    trend up or down as more outlets are tapped for numbers and they will adjust. 

    60k was my prediction weeks ago, so this is above what I thought. With no strong airplay and no huge television promo beside Idol this week (which typically only provides a 6-10k boost in sale btw), this is a good number solid number. The test will be international sales (especially the UK, Japan, and Germany which are releasing later) and longevity. 

  • Anonymous

    One could argue that there was no demand for him to be promoted internationally. David is one of my favorite Idols, but let’s be real, if the record label saw a market for him to be sold to, they would have done it. It’s why Archie was maintained on Sony Asia, he’s done extremely well in that market and they know they’ll get the return on him. Don’t get me wrong, I know every Idol has fans who are from non-US countries, but that alone doesn’t make them marketable to that particular countries’ radio. It just happens that Adam’s genre choice lined up more for the first album than most recent Idol albums and probably will for the second as well, depending of course on single choices. 

    Really, only Kelly has well and truly broken the mold and been a smashing international success, so that should show how difficult gaining overseas popularity really is.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    Back up to #4 on Amazon. FYE appears to have gotten a boost – it’s at #743. Also this morning, someone tweeted that FYE was in the top 200 in pop on itunes.

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    “milwlovesadam: My
    head is spinning. Am I to understand that all my pre-orders of multiple
    CD’s from AO don’t count? WTF? This can’t be true. I have no way of
    knowing, but gazillions of Glamberts ordered through AO to support Adam.
    How could those CD’s not count?

    Does anybody have access to correct info?”Yes, these sales count. HDD forecast does not include actual information from AO.com/Sony Music Store/Play.com. BUT the sales from AO.com/Sony Music store/Play.com are reported to Nielsen Soundscan and used for the Billboard 200. These sales also count for RIAA certification.

    The HDD forecast is based on a few sources of sales data and a lot of history. They are very rarely far off.

    “EmyR: Really though, only Kelly has well and truly broken the mold and been a smashing international success, so that should show how difficult gaining overseas popularity really is.”

    I think Adam has done well internationally — apx 50% of FYE sales have been international. Plus had hit singles in several countries.

    Trespassing has not been release yet in a number of major markets but is doing well in the Finland, Denmark, Norway, across Eastern Europe. Still not released in Germany. Austria, NZ, AU, Japan and UK. But my expectation is Trespassing will exceed FYE internationally.

  • Anonymous

    HDD forecast doesn’t include those online outlets unless the labels provide pre-sale numbers. So it is possible this particular forecast is figuring in the numbers provided by RCA. Also, RIAA has never used Nielson Soundscan for certification, they track numbers themselves for that.

  • milwlovesadam

    Thanks EmyR and Q3 for setting this info straight. Whew, what a relief.

  • Nele621

    I thought Cook’s album was released internationally. Maybe it didn’t sell enough.

  • teacup

    Go Carrie! 

  • Anonymous

    It’s hard for albums to sell without some promo. 

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YYRRCZL5KSSZAHDXW26V5DXFYM indigo

    This just got tweeted      @adamlambert replaces Various Artists at No.1 on the US Album Chart. highest new entry: @owlcity. 22 new entries. http://bit.ly/L9VeeN
    Retweeted

  • Anonymous

    No, there just wasn’t any demand for a release internationally. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    Now #3 on Amazon.

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    I am not sure what “Now #3″ means but Trespassing Deluxe is #1 on iTunes US and Trespassing Regular is #81.

    It is #3 and #111 in Canada.

    ETA: Thanks for explaining the #3 is Amazon — I think that is the peak for Trespassing on Amazon — it has been #6 – #7 most of the day. :)

  • Anonymous

    I think she meant on Amazon.

  • Anonymous

    I am surprised that Adam’s position is holding up so well on the Best Seller online lists.  I picture Adam’s fans being so passionate that they buy as soon as possible.    He must have more casual fans or new fans that have read a good review, picked up interest online, had a friend recommend etc.  Good sign.  The man has good buzz IMO.

  • Nele621

    Looks like John Mayer is catching up very quickly.

  • Anonymous

    John Mayer’s album doesn’t come out until May 22nd, though so all his sales right now are pre-orders. He won’t show up on the actual album sales charts for this week. He will likely be #1 on the BB Top 200 the following week though

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    Yup, I was replying to my own post about Amazon. I have updated the post to make it clear it was #3 on Amazon. I think that is the highest it’s ever been on there.

  • Nele621

    Darn. Kris has no chance of coming in at #1 with Mayer releasing the same day.

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    Pam, thanks for explaining. It is really interesting to see Trespassing move up on Amazon 2 days after release.

    Trespassing is also #2 on Barnes & Nobel.

  • http://twitter.com/monica050581 Monica Linder

    Even the standard version of Trespassing is currently at #24 on Amazon…

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Wui-Zhuan-Lim/777616348 Wui Zhuan Lim

    oops..HUGE drop compared to debut album

  • Ron

    Adam Lambert Trespassing: 4 out of 4 stars! People Magazine – May 28, 2012 http://twitpic.com/9lwuc6

    I was hoping for 5 out of 4 stars but I’m okay with this … :-D

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    YankeeFan08 “70-80K is quite nice considering how some other Idols have done with
    their sophomore albums.  Now we just need NCOE to get moving.  I wish
    the adds date was sooner.”

    The schedule will continue to promote album sales over a long period of time. Plus, the MV will be released next week — the first time Adam has had his MV out before the impacting radio date.

    I think that it was a strange path to get here but Trespassing is being launched with an excellently crafted promo foundation.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1759402889 Natalie Blake

    Albums are always released on Tuesday!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1759402889 Natalie Blake

    Woot! I’m so excited for Adam! Trespassing has been sitting nicely at #1 on iTunes for the past 36 hours or so, which is nice to see. I hate that the music industry is all about album sales numbers and radio plays, though. It doesn’t give decent artists a chance in heck. I’d much rather hear Adam Lambert and David Cook as opposed to most of the drivel that plays over and over and over on the radio nowadays. (Usually “hit” songs play multiple times in the SAME day!) 

  • Mary Reichardt

    I love Kris’ new album, but I think he has zero chance of coming in at #1 whether he releases the same week as John Mayer or not (though John Mayer seems set to top next week’s chart). He has little radio presence and the only major promo I know of for his drop week is Live with Kelly Ripa, which is not terribly major. I would be thrilled if he makes the top 10, but I don’t think that’s a guarantee. 
     
    If Adam gets #1 this week, it will still count as a bragging right and I think only those in the Idol bubble would even know if sales are low for a number 1. I’m not prepared to predict anything, though, considering he’s up against Adele and her sales seem to defy logic or reasoning.  It seems like whenever she gets knocked from the #1 spot, she rises back up in a few weeks.

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

    No they are not always released on Tuesday. FYE was released on a Monday in the US, Canada, Mexico, and several other countries.

    And Tuesday is only “release day” in North America.

    Here are the release dates for Trespassing in selected countries:

    Friday May 11, 2012: Norway

    Monday May 14, 2012: Russia, Hong Kong

    Tuesday May 15, 2012: US, Canada, Mexico

    Wednesday May 16, 2012: Finland

    Friday May 18, 2012: Germany, Austria, Australia, New Zealand

    Wednesday June 6, 2012: Japan

    Friday July 2, 2012: UK

    Friday July 13, 2012: Ireland

    Monday July 16, 2012: France

  • http://twitter.com/Quu3 Q3

     For RIAA Certification, the labels supply the wholesale sales number and documentation to the RIAA, and the RIAA audits the submission. The RIAA does not track any numbers themselves.

  • Anonymous

    This is fantastic news – 1, 2 or 3, it will be a huge accomplishment, especially for a male Idol! LOL. Although I don’t usually put much stock in them, I really do think that all of the great album reviews have helped Adam, and made the doubters stand up and take notice in a way that his first two singles haven’t. When was the last really great pop album by a solo, male singer? Not just a few great singles? Justin Timberlake? Bruno? I loved Mika’s first album. IDK? Either way Adam is filling a huge void in the Pop market right now. Go Adam! You were always  a great singer, and now you have the potential to be a great pop artist too. Sophomore curse? Peshaw!

    Re Cook? Comparisons are kind of pointless to me because no way is David going to garner as much attention as Adam in this music climate, for a multitude of reasons. But that’s okay. I’m sad about RCA dropping him, but I still loved his last album, still think he’s a great singer and a deserving artist. Hope he keeps making music and finds his own version of success, however modest or grand.

  • Anonymous

    RIAA auditing is considered tracking as they are checking to make sure all sales (for shipments) are correct. Meaning, they do not rely solely on the labels numbers and instead “track” the numbers taken in by outlets to make sure the numbers are the same. You’re earlier assertion that certification was based on Soundscan numbers continues to be incorrect.

  • Anonymous

    Just out of curiosity, is that because you like Carrie or don’t like Adam? Obviously it’s fine either way, but i was wondering. :)

    It would be cool if he got to #1.  That Bieber fan account with 800k followers tweeted to everyone to buy his album, which was really cute.  for whatever reason, he seems to have a lot of bieber fans.  

    Also, he’s been at #1 for 48 hours almost!  Obviously the banner and everything has something to do with that, but it seems like a lot of people are also just checking out the album and liking it a lot. 

    basically, if ncoe can do well on radio, it seem like he’s set. So fingers and other crossable things crossed. :3

  • Anonymous

    70-80k (or a little less, if the comparisons are front-loaded) is a good start, and if he can build on that once ncoe catches on, that’ll be awesome. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/PVEFG2TOUIXSROKUSO2O2DOWWE Taylor

    Adele’s unusual run has changed the landscape for anyone trying to get to the #1 spot in the year 2012.

    By May 2011, there were eight weeks in which the No. 1
    album scanned less than 100K. That means that almost half of the weeks in Jan-the middle of May were in line with what this upcoming week looks like.

    Adele’s sales numbers are not only an anomoay due to the amount of weeks 21 has been at number one, they are also pushing up the amount of album sales it takes each week to get to #1, especially during the winter and early spring months.

  • Anonymous

    FYE reached #3, it is very good news that Trespassing is forecast to reach at least the same position.
    Anything better is gravy, imo.

  • Mateja Praznik

     The labels naturally prefer selling albums than singles. But, hit singles usually help sustain album sales. Right now, Adam is promoting the album and doing TV appearances. He can’t do that much after the first week. He has other stuff to do (radio concerts, then Queen) and there are simply not enough venues for artists to appear on TV for let’s say, half a year. For pop acts like Adam, radioplay is the key. Sure, sometimes even hit singles don’t have much of an effect on album sales, but labels are also happy if an artist has a hit and his single sells. Word of mouth can only do so much.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    There is a normal drop of 70% for idols’ sophomore albums. So Adam is doing better than that.

  • Anonymous

    I am hoping that good album sales will help convince radio to play NCOE. I think that a #1 would be a great boost.
    But this is a wish, not a prediction, time will tell for this single future radio play.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pam.hart4 Pam Hart

    Just read on a fansite that a 4/4 review from People is rare. They listed about 9 artists reviews and most were 2.5-3.0. Fun and Goyte got 3.0 and they had huge hits on both HAC and CHR. People doesn’t count on Metacritic but I do think it has a big readership.

  • Anonymous

    I am listening to ‘Trespassing’ right now and what a great album Adam created and it is clear to me why he wanted to be the Executive Producer, it is a pop masterpiece, IMO.  I love the dance, funk, cohesiveness, and especially his amazing vocals.  I can’t even pick a favorite because each time I listen to the album, I hear something different that I love about a song – the beat, the lyrics, etc.  I have my fingers crossed that Adam takes the number 1 position on Billboard; he so deserves it for his talent alone, but also he has worked so hard to get to this position in his music career.  I love going to itunes and seeing Adam sitting at number 1.  This is an exciting time for Adam and his fans and I am savoring every moment.    

  • Anonymous

    Go Adam! Sending all positivity your way!! Much deserved…

  • Emmy

    This Adam fan could NOT be happier. He continues to defy my expectations. I hoped for a decent album coming from an AI alum – he delivered an amazing album. I hoped for some good reviews – he’s received almost universal acclaim. I hoped the stans could get him up high on i-tunes – we got him to #1 and casual fans have taken over and are keeping him there. I hoped he’d avoid the sophomore slump – he’s on track to be on top for his release week. I hoped people would continue to care about Adam – based on the interviews, ratings, comments and public chatter, people still care a lot (good or bad but rarely indifferent, lol).  All this and I also get to listen to this great music sung brilliantly. Happy, happy, happy.

  • YankeeFan08

    Trespassing was released in NZ about an hour ago and is already at#1.

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    Isn’t it 60% sophomore slump?

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    Even top Idols experience a 60% slump on their sophomore cds. I am hoping Adam gets to 80,000. That will mean he is following the traditional Idol curve and hasn’t lost comparative ground in a slumping industry.

    Plus the cd is so catchy that I bet word of mouth on it will provide steady sales over the next few months.

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    She has her own channel – her reach isn’t what it used to be though.

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    Oops! I read an aritcle yesterday that said it was tonight. Sorry!

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    Lots of Adam’s fans aren’t requesting it, though. There is a lot of confusion online about whether to request now or wait ’til May 28th. I am writing in the request on my local station’s site every day and we have been told by our DJ’s that they will start playing it soon.

    Interesting thing: our local Virgin Station, which didn’t play Adam last time, has NCOE on it’s mediabase list already.

  • http://twitter.com/LindsayKempFan Not fit to print

    Pleeeeease buy this week….. this is suspenseful but it’s kind of fun. If Carrie can get a few more sales from Idol fan competitiveness, good for her, but Adele is the real threatto Adam this week.

  • mmb

    Wow!  woke up this morning to see Trespassing still at itunes #1 and moving up on Amazon  (#2 now?).  Really hope it can hang in there on itunes until the Idol performance tonight.  Adam and his team have created a terrific album and it is nice to see it getting such positive attention from the music and mainstream press.  The sales projections are at the high end of what I personally was projecting (not that I know anything, lol) and, based on the statement by HDD what, perhaps, the label and industry was projecting.  So that is great. Hope NCOE becomes a hit for him (if it does, I will forgive RCA for the BTIKM mess  grrrrrrr; although I must say that I like BTIKM a lot in the context of the album as a whole).  Really love NCOE a lot and hope it does well enough for additional singles to be released (I’m hoping for Cuckoo and Naked Love someday).  Can’t wait to see the video next week.

  • Anonymous

    So happy for Adam, he deserves all this and more.
    Love, love, love the album, all the songs :)

  • Anonymous

    Delete

  • Anonymous

    I just saw that The Chicago Tribune gave Trespassing 4.5 stars and People gave it 4/4 stars. I am just so happy for Adam!

  • Anonymous

    If there was no demand, why was Cook’s new song #1 on itunes in New Zealand and Finland?  That was untapped on the first album.  The faulty comparison still stands when both didn’t have the same level playing field.  

  • Anonymous

    Released to Japan with no promotion to speak of.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002166668687 Ali Goria

    I believe the confusion over requests stems from Adam’s former mis-management team. They couldn’t come up with a cohesive fan strategy and were catering to folk lore that requesting too much was bad. They even put up with Open House Party changing their minds all the time about what forms of requests were acceptable. Because the stations had them by the short hairs.

    While there’s likely an embargo in the partners agreement between the label and the stations, to wait until the impact date to play it, so the promotion can gear up, we should still be requesting, IMO. Requests are built into the formula that is supposed to determine what adds and spins are added. Notice I said supposed to be. Because in the end, there’s nothing that forces a station to spin it or keep them from putting it into overnight rotation. 

  • fuzzywuzzy

    “Even top Idols experience a 60% slump on their sophomore cds. I am hoping Adam gets to 80,000. That will mean he is following the traditional Idol curve and hasn’t lost comparative ground in a slumping industry.”

    Which “top idols” would those be?

    Carrie sold 315,000 copies of her debut album “Some Hearts”, and then sold  527,000 copies of her sophomore album, “Carnival Ride” its debut week (an increase of 67%, now 2X RIAA certified platinum).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrie_Underwood

    Kelly sold 297,000 copies of “Thankful” its debut week, then sold 250,000 copies of “Breakaway” its debut week, a decrease of only 19% (now 6X RIAA certified platinum).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_Clarkson

    Daughtry sold 304,000 copies of “Daughtry” its debut week, then sold 269,300 copies of “Leave This Town” its debut week, a decrease of only 13% (now RIAA certified platinum).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daughtry_%28band%29

    http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=gmn&action=display&thread=87383

  • Anonymous

    My 16 year old is blaring Adam on her Apple right now.  You go girl! :)

    eta: I mean you go Adam!!!! :) Happy for him!!!!!

  • Anonymous

     And those three are representative of the majority of Idol alumni?

  • Anonymous

    Actually, the original poster said even the top Idols experienced a 60% slump as well.  Those 3 are who I think of when I think of top Idols and I guess that’s who fuzzywuzzy thought of too.  Thanks for the sales figures, fuzzywuzzy.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Of course not, I was questioning the term “top idols”, since that was the term used to describe a 60% fall in first week album sales from the first to the second album.

    ETA: thirdtime wrote:
    “Actually, the original poster said even the top Idols experienced a 60% slump as well. Those 3 are who I think of when I think of top Idols and I guess that’s who fuzzywuzzy thought of too. Thanks for the sales figures, fuzzywuzzy”.

    You’re welcome and that is exactly what I was thinking when the poster wrote “top idols”.

    Plus, at a certain point, the % increase or decrease becomes less significant than the actual number. If sales a still very robust, even a large percentage drop is not nearly as significant as the same percentage drop if the sales are not as robust.

  • Anonymous

    What I don’t understand though, is how they can be sure he’s only going to sell this amount this week.  With the Idol performance tonight, anything can happen.  He may surprise everyone.

  • http://twitter.com/tinawinabina Tinawina

    70K is a good debut in the pop genre. I always thought that comparison to the idol debut thing was overrated. It’s the second album, its not about Idol fans anymore. He’s now competing with his peers… which would be other pop artists, especially males like Bruno Mars, Jason Derulo, etc and dancy, fun types like Katy Perry etc.

    This is good news. Now he just needs to get the single going.

  • windmills

    fuzzywuzzy: Carrie sold 315,000 copies of her debut album “Some Hearts”, and then sold  527,000 copies of her sophomore album, “Carnival Ride” its debut week (an increase of 67%, now 2X RIAA certified platinum).

    Just as a point of fact, Carnival Ride has sold 3.261 million copies in the US (via Brian Mansfield’s album sales report in USA Today). But, it doesn’t change your point about the top Idols not seeing a 60% dip in their 1st week sales.

  • fuzzywuzzy

    Thanks for the correction, windmills.  :)  I missed the 3X platinum on the RIAA website.

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    Since we’re talking about slumps… there are two phenomena that seem relevant to me.

    1. There isn’t a clear relationship between an Idol alum’s first-week sales and total album cycle sales. Aramil crunched the numbers last year, in honor of JHud’s album drop, and a stable link to that work is here.

    2. The “60% slump” figure that I personally bandy about refers to total album cycle sales, not to first-week sales (and doesn’t translate to first-week sales, per aramil’s work). The 60% figure is an average for debut-to-sophomore slump. 50% slump is fantastic and seems to require radio hits in the artist’s home genre. That’s all here.

    How would I apply this to Lambert? His first-week prediction is very solid for his level of radio play. I want to see the second-week drop to see if, after the core fans have done their buying, his PR gives him some tail winds or not — every time I try to predict, my brain makes little sizzling sounds, so I honestly don’t know what to expect. To have a real break-out album in the U.S., he’s going to need to see NCOE get some big radio love.

  • mmb

    Hdd is usually pretty good at predicting these things…they do adjust up and down by week’s end, and once in a while something comes out of the blue..but they are probably already considering the idol performance.  Carrie had an idol performance her release week and it didn’t change her prediction.  They might be off by 10-20K at most, up or down.  But we aren’t going to see double the prediction or anything like that.

    But 70-80K, in May, non-holiday week, 2 1/2 years after last album release, without a significant radio presence is pretty darn good. And based on itunes positions it seems to be getting a good response in some other countries as well. It gonna be a long summer for Adam as he criss-crosses the globe for promo, concerts etc.

  • Anonymous

    Trespassing just went #1 Itunes in minutes in New Zealand today. In Australia, Trespassing is released tomorrow, hoping it does good there also.

  • Anonymous

    And all three are alumni who had a first era supported by many hit singles,  and the sophomore starting with a hit single.
    Adam needs NCOE do do well.

  • Anonymous

    I think it will do well in Australia, FYE went platinum there and I think Trespassing will do even better. Glad to see the Kiwis are loving the album, they have been great supporters of Adam from the beginning.

  • Anonymous

    My apologies, then.  I just glanced at the quoted part while looking here at work.

  • mmb

    I think it may take a while for it to rev up in Australia.  I’ve been pretty surprised by the lack of Australian promo thus far this era…he hasn’t been there at all, done any tv or radio etc.  FYE era they sent him there for a few weeks and he made a lot of appearances, did radio interviews and in-studios and then his single and album started to take off.  Given his success there FYE era, I would have thought he would have made at least one trip there by now and paid a little more attention to this market.  IIRC Kelly C went there right around the time of her album release.  But maybe they plan on sending him there later in the summer before or after his concerts in Japan.  Anyway, saw on twitter that NCOE was debuting on a big Oz countdown show today, so hopefully the single will do well.

  • http://twitter.com/whiskey401 Whiskey

    Cook was #1 in the Rock category not the overall itune chart. That is a big difference. It’s why I think saying someone is #1 in those categories tend to be a little misleading on how well the song has actually done. It’s still great he went #1 in Rock.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002166668687 Ali Goria

    I don’t know much about Idol OR this sophomore slump concept OR numbers…but I’m buying that, no problem. I remember RiRi was called a slow burner back in 2009 because she always dropped lower then smashed later on. I remember because she dropped at the same time as Adam from what I remember and he outsold her first week.  

    But I could make a case that a more significant point in lower sales in 2011 – 2012 represents a lower sales volume overall. For EVERYBODY.

    Both Daughtry and Kelly (if their Wiki’s are right) sold a couple of hundred thousand units less TO DATE, with releases in 2011 over prior year(s) like 2009. Carrie even sold overall TO DATE 1.2 million less of her 2009 release over her 2007 release if my eyes didn’t blur reading it all. What I see is simply falling sales anyway. If Lambert met his sales from debut week 2009 this year I’d be shocked and amazed. Not to mention waiting a couple years to even do the release with only FYE to support him now. 

    If you look at Rihanna’s sales they are DRAMATICALLY lower 2009 over 2007, the same year Lambert released his first. She’s almost back to 2005 levels.

    If Rihianna is still a chart topper but dropping it’s not just Idol. 

    BTW I just noticed her 2009 release sold 1,017,000 US units if her Wiki is right. Adam announced he just went platinum. But the difference in his radio play and popularity narrative is shockingly disparate. She put out 2 albums since then. She’s a hard worker and apparently has endless material to pick from. Just an observation :)

  • http://twitter.com/sgjools julia

     If there was no demand, why was Cook’s new song #1 on itunes in New Zealand and Finland?

    Why is this discussion even happening? As far as i can see this is thread about “Adam Lambert Vying For #1 on the Billboard 200″, not “place for people to complain about how unfair the world is for their favourite dropped WGWG”.

  • mmb

    Adam didn’t announce FYE just went platinum.  Fans mis-read his new bio on RCA (which IMO was clearly referring to FYE’s platinum status in other countries…it is correct to say FYE is certified platinum because it is, just not in the us) and tweeted it to him…he sort of responded with a “it did?  cool.”  The bio was quickly yanked probably due to the confusion caused by overzealous fans. The bio is back up but without the platinum reference.

  • Anonymous

    Two small countries aren’t exactly international demand (and are you sure that was overall?). Those countries can add up, as we’ve seen, but they really do need more to make an impact. Even Daughtry, whose genre of music is closer to David’s, has had only moderate success internationally continuously. 

    Again, this isn’t meant to be a put down on Idols that don’t break internationally. Kelly is the only Idol to really conquer the international markets continuously, so it’s just hard to do. I know people are a little down about him being dropped, but David sold over 1.3 million album in his first era and nothing will ever take that away from him. Just as international sales shouldn’t be discredited, neither should being able to pull that off in the US. His genre is just more US oriented than most overseas markets like. 

    RCA is a business; if they thought they could make money off any of the Idols internationally, they would do it. 

    ETA: Edited out some unnecessary rambling.

  • Anonymous

    I always appreciate your research on these matters. Looking at this again, it’s easy to see that the Idols that have maintained airplay prior to release of the second album also avoided the supposed sophomore slump, so you’re exactly right that what Adam will need is NCOE to do well. It’d be interesting to compare airplay pre-release to actual release numbers to see a more direct correlation. 

  • Anonymous

    Oprah retired her regular show and started the OWN network (which she does not have a show on and is doing extremely poorly).

  • http://twitter.com/eilonwya10 Eilonwy

    It’d be interesting to compare airplay pre-release to actual release numbers to see a more direct correlation.

    I’m scribbling on my to-do list to see whether there’s a reliable and fairly easy way to get album release date, rather than peak, airplay numbers for all of the winners. If Pulse doesn’t help, there’s a Clay Aiken fan site that has a history of intense number-nerding, so they may have it from S2 forward. This can’t be top on my list right now, for a bunch of reasons, but I really, really like the idea — so thank you for that, as well as for the kind words.

  • http://twitter.com/RedRoseQueen1 RedRoseQueen1

    I gave my hubby a Trespassing album to put in the CD player in his truck and he has been “terrorizing” the whole area (neighborhood, stores, etc..) by blasting it while “chair dancing” behind the wheel, big (goofy) smile on his face. He especially loves “Shady” He’s a 62 year old long-haired retired rock musician and we both adore Adam! I think I need to get him (hubby) on video with this and post it on YouTube, LOL! :D

  • http://twitter.com/weeeeezle weezle

    Hahaha…You go Rock daddy……I am picturing it in my head….:)

  • http://twitter.com/RedRoseQueen1 RedRoseQueen1

     This may come as a shock to some but radio does not have the same clout it once had. In fact, I rarely if EVER listen to radio. With mp3 players, iPods, PC’s, iPads, etc…radio no longer has the same impact as in “days of old”…Believe me…I was a hardcore Beatlemaniac and ALL us kids listened to the same radio stations (and DJs) and we all liked and grooved to the same music.Today, due to the myriad genres and sub-genres and the different attitudes in different markets (geographically) etc…music and fandoms are varied…sometimes splintered. When you add to that…the FACT that music buying has changed drastically in the last 5 years or so (bad economy, ease of pirating, etc..) then one needs to realize how amazing it is that Adam is doing as well as he is! He deserves to be #1 EVERYWHERE imho.He IS an International star. No question about it.And his concerts sell out.
    There are pop stars who NEED singles to make it in order to sell their albums.Adam, thankfully, has a nice built-in fan base that want ALL of his songs and will buy the entire album.Just like we used to buy all albums by The Beatles.Adam will do just fine.BB numbers etc..do not always tell the whole picture.Whatever happens with sales, I’m a fan for life.(That said, it does tickle me when I see him UP there,lol!)

  • http://twitter.com/RedRoseQueen1 RedRoseQueen1

     Thanks Weezle! It really IS hilarious and the joy is infectious! That’s the real perk of being such a fan of Adam, unbridled JOY! ;D

  • Anonymous

    Fischerspooner is a CURRENT male artist, Ray Boltz and Tonex are producing Christian Artists (Boltz being a multiplatinum and award winning singer songwriter whose career suffered then rebounded when he came out.) The B52′s had their biggest hits after the death of one of their founders from AIDS and the other men affirmed their sexuality.

    My point is the LGBT community has had many an opportunity to support gay artists in the past and chose or chose not to be so for whatever reasons. Adam may be the most openly gay artists on the scene at the moment but he isn’t the only one (perhaps the only one which you know about)

    I applaud Adam for coming out at the start of his career. Even AfterElton credits him with being the first major label artist to do so. I think it is great that he is not ashamed or cautious about being who he is. But I do not think he would want the community or anyone else to purchase his music just because he is gay.