I’ve never seen a good explanation for why some songs become top 10 hits and others that seem just as good (or bad!) to me go nowhere’ ¦. And if anybody actually knew the secret, whoever it was would probably be backing all the hit artists and none of the also-rans, and I don’t see anybody in that position!

As for Kris and Adam, it’s way too early to conclude anything, in either guy’s case, if you ask me. Neither of their singles has been out for all that long, they haven’t toured yet ‘ ¦ etc.

I’ve got a two word response for the first half… Owl City.

As for the second… half. It is too early to conclude anything and I wish the journalist would give it time. Personally I think most people just tune out everything around them from Oct. 31st – Jan 1st. Unless one of these news agencies have a crystal ball… I really don’t want to hear from them. (oh, adding Alli to Adam and Kris)

As for the HDD numbers, I’m wincing a bit for Adam (and Kris, for that matter), but I wouldn’t be too worried. WWFM seems to be doing well radio wise for so early in its release. It’ll build an audience, I’m sure.

Exactly. They’ll either build audiences gradually over time, or they won’t. How that happens, or doesn’t, is pretty much a mystery, seems to me.

I’ve never seen a good explanation for why some songs become top 10 hits and others that seem just as good (or bad!) to me go nowhere…. And if anybody actually knew the secret, whoever it was would probably be backing all the hit artists and none of the also-rans, and I don’t see anybody in that position!

As for Kris and Adam, it’s way too early to conclude anything, in either guy’s case, if you ask me. Neither of their singles has been out for all that long, they haven’t toured yet … etc.

At this point I’m pretty much done with this conversation. The only thing I’ll say is that if P!nk was censored, how would any one know what happened or have the clip on YT? It must have played somewhere in, otherwise how would people get their hands on it?

It aired in Canada.

Also, we know that ABC got fewer complaints than Dancing with the Stars causes, but we don’t know how many complaints the FCC might have gotten. (I know one of the numbers floating around a few sites was an FCC number, not an ABC number.)

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As for the HDD numbers, I’m wincing a bit for Adam (and Kris, for that matter), but I wouldn’t be too worried. WWFM seems to be doing well radio wise for so early in its release. It’ll build an audience, I’m sure.

Normally, drops are in the 60-70% range from first to second week. If there is a major change in the sales (e.g. Christmas or Black Friday week) one expects there to be a smaller drop going into the week and a larger drop coming out of that week.

A good indication if you are suffering a better or worse drop is to compare yourself to others dropping the same week. One must make allowances for the Freak of Sales that is SuBo and not compare oneself to her.

Second to third week drops are normally in the 40% range (again, if the second week is a Black Friday week, the drop to the third week will likely be larger). Fourth weeks drops are normally in the 25% range. Christmas is coming so that should lesson the drops in the next few weeks (this week is a more normal sales week, but the next two should be better than average sales week).

thanks kirsten… gonna save this, because i know i’ll be needing it down the line…

A good indication if you are suffering a better or worse drop is to compare yourself to others dropping the same week. One must make allowances for the Freak of Sales that is SuBo and not compare oneself to her (looks like she’s going platinum in two weeks. Rare these days).

Second to third week drops are normally in the 40% range (again, if the second week is a Black Friday week, the drop to the third week will likely be larger). Fourth weeks drops are normally in the 25% range. Christmas is coming so that should lesson the drops in the next few weeks (this week is a more normal sales week, but the next two should be better than average sales week).

interesting – and darn it I cannot find the Chelsea forum from last night

anyway, they had on as a guest Ellen’s Portia and they showed photos from their wedding and pretty much advocated for gay marriage (she was on to promote her show which they also did briefly). All I could think of was that ABC and GMA must be making sure the GLAD members have nothing to quarrel about.

http://www.eonline.com/on/ca/shows/chelsea/chelseaness/b155156_its_sexy_job_adam_lamberts_gotta_do_it.html

Oh- this is the wrong link, this is old -

looks to be a nail biter for many next week then lucy’ ¦

‘fraid so. …. They just have to hope that they can keep people hearing their songs and keep the promotion going into the new year so that they keep selling in the several thousands, at least, a week, instead of dropping down to selling a thousand or less a week, which could easily happen for all three, I fear. Given Allison’s start, she could easily drop to selling hundreds per week, unless some kind of visibility for the music kicks in here, I think.

Yikes.

using mayer, with his 72 percent drop from 1st to 2nd week, has he managed to remain in the top 10? does or did black friday provide any kind of a cushion from last week to this one’ ¦ i ask because it’s hard trying to figure out if the increases/decreases we will see are ”standard’ , or if the holiday season is kinder to some artists than others’ ¦ this is a strange year’ ¦

I think the drop from Black Friday to the week right after is considered a typically bigger one than normal (unless you’re SuBo or Andrea Bocelli, of course ) So Adam debuting the week of Black Friday meant he would likely take a harder hit because of the next week fall off. However, isn’t the week before Christmas (or Christmas week) another huge selling week?

ETA: Oh, and for your last point, yes, fare like SuBo and Andrea Bocelli is THE stuff to sell this time of year, hence the mad rush to get out Christmas type albums now – it’s safe, easy stocking stuffer material – and everyone wants another copy of Silent Night this time of year.

using mayer, with his 72 percent drop from 1st to 2nd week, has he managed to remain in the top 10? does or did black friday provide any kind of a cushion from last week to this one’ ¦ i ask because it’s hard trying to figure out if the increases/decreases we will see are ”standard’ , or if the holiday season is kinder to some artists than others’ ¦ this is a strange year’ ¦

Wish I could answer your question, I really don’t know much about it. Maybe Kirsten knows.

using mayer, with his 72 percent drop from 1st to 2nd week, has he managed to remain in the top 10? does or did black friday provide any kind of a cushion from last week to this one’ ¦

I would think Black Friday actually might make the next week’s drop *larger,* since people went out and shopped a lot more than usual on Black Friday week, picked up all the albums they wanted that had already come out, drove buying levels way up, and then were kind of shopped out the week following — a drop from an inflated level to an “average” level is always gonna be bigger than a drop from an average level to another average level, right? …

Dunno if this is the way it generally works, but I think it makes sense to think that a lot of people will see a bigger percentage drop off this week …. I especially expect that Adam will because he’s getting very little radio play at this point, and that has to kick in if your sales are going to be sustained at all (unless people are getting your music some other way, such as off a tv show or something, or they already know you from the past and are buying you as an old standby favorite … and in his case they’re not) A 75-80 percent Adam dropoff wouldn’t surprise me this week. … That would still get him practically halfway to gold, though, so it’s not so bad.

Hoping that Kris’s radio play can keep sustaining him a little bit.

And especially hoping that they didn’t overestimate Allison’s first-week sales! Yikes.

72% is the exact percentage that John Mayer dropped from release week to second week.

using mayer, with his 72 percent drop from 1st to 2nd week, has he managed to remain in the top 10? does or did black friday provide any kind of a cushion from last week to this one… i ask because it’s hard trying to figure out if the increases/decreases we will see are ”standard”, or if the holiday season is kinder to some artists than others… this is a strange year…

72% drop from 198K to 55K

thanks kristen’ ¦is this ”standard’  compared to industry average, and is it ”standard’  compared to second week decreases for idols’ ¦

I think it’s in the ball park from what I have read. Might be slightly higher. We will know more soon I suspect. I think Kris was lucky his first drop was during Black Friday, so it softened the drop percentage, and it was I beleive at 59 percent.

Gah, I was hoping Alison would make the list. When is Kimmel? Is it this week?